First, the price trend

graph.100ppi.com (500×300) Recently, the domestic butadiene market is careful to wait and see mainly.

Business Society monitoring shows that as of May 6, the price of Butadiene is 7834 yuan/ton.

Ii. Analysis of influencing factors

Products: Domestic Butadiene market finishing and watching mainly, after the festival manufacturers do not have the latest price guidelines, downstream most of the digestion of raw materials inventory, the intention of the inquiry is low, the intention of the broker offers is not high, Shandong region sent to the price reference 7800-7900 yuan/ton, east China in 8000 yuan/ton, real single negotiations. Industrial chain: Downstream synthetic rubber aspect, Butadiene rubber: Although the day glue futures rebound, but the supply-side policy continues to exist repression, and the demand is also relatively weak, butadiene rubber market presents a concussion pattern, the industry is watching at the same time to offer more flat water factory, trading is small. Butadiene Rubber: Domestic butadiene rubber market stability. By the price support of the day glue, business offers in the factory prices, and low-cost shipping intention is not high, buyers into the market replenishment, small single deal in the factory price.

SBS: Domestic SBS Market oil glue, dry rubber channel changed slightly finishing.

Third, the forecast of the aftermarket Recently northeast manufacturers or will have a small number of sources of export, and with the Puyang Blue Star device restart, the late supply surface slightly increased, but short-term northeast manufacturers inventory is low, and Inner Mongolia Jutai temporarily no commodity outflow, to a certain extent to bring support to the market, business society butadiene analysts expect that in the short term domestic butadiene market maintenance mainly, It is suggested to pay attention to the release situation and transaction guidelines of Northeast manufacturers.

The report of the first quarter of 2019 issued by four major carbon black listed companies in China shows that the net profit of the four companies has declined dramatically, even a huge quarterly loss of more than 74 million yuan.

On March 30, Jiangxi Black Cat Carbon Black Co., Ltd. issued a performance forecast for the first quarter of 2019. The company expects net profit attributable to shareholders of Listed Companies in the first quarter to be between – 50 million yuan and – 80 million yuan. The profit for the same period last year was 134.836 million yuan.

According to Black Cat Carbon Black, the price of coal-coke black raw material oil was running at a high level from January to March this year. During the same period, affected by the decline in production and sales rate of automobile industry and negative expectations of trade frictions, tire companies’purchasing willingness declined, and the selling price of carbon black products continued to decline. The bad situation of “expensive raw materials and cheap products” had not been improved.

According to the data of Jinneng Technologies, the company’s quarterly sales increased by 27.54% to 606,000 tons from January to March 2019, but sales revenue increased by only 1.30%, which was caused by the sharp fall in the price of carbon black products.

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic carbon black quoted 6,900 yuan/ton on April 29, with a small fluctuation and a price fluctuation range of 100-300 yuan/ton. This month, the volatility of carbon black market is mainly upward.

Since the fourth quarter of last year, the price of raw oil for carbon black production has fluctuated dramatically, resulting in a “passive price drop” of carbon black products, and the quarterly operating profit of enterprises has even been reduced to zero.

Business analysts believe that the number of carbon black enterprises in China is large, overcapacity and decentralized, and competition is fierce. Because of the lack of concentration of production capacity, price rises may be taken away by other competitors. As the short-term has not been significantly positive, the market is expected to continue to operate at a low level.

Price Trend

This week’s lead market (04.22-04.26) “V” trend, the average domestic market price at the beginning of the week at 16 625 yuan / ton, weekend at 16 662.50 yuan / ton, a weekly increase of 0.23%.

The lead commodity index on April 27 was 101.41, unchanged from yesterday, down 24.33% from the cyclical peak of 134.01 points (2016-11-29), and up 35.88% from the lowest point of 74.63 on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

II. Market Trend Analysis

Domestic market: This week, the main trading range of spot lead is 16450-16700 yuan/ton. The downstream battery companies are easing their fear of falling, but continue to purchase more on demand, maintain low inventory, and overall turnover has not significantly improved. As of Friday, the main sources of goods in the market are concentrated in Jinsha, Nanfang and Tongguan, etc. The mainstream quotation of brand lead in Shanghai maintained at 16650-16850 yuan/ton.

Domestic events:

Lithium Battery VS Lead-acid Battery Who Will Be Better

“Technical Specification for Electric Bicycle Safety” was formally implemented on April 15 this year. This is another game between lithium batteries and lead-acid batteries in the electric bicycle market. In this game, lithium batteries are also gaining the upper hand gradually. We can even predict that most of the products that will appear in the future mini-electric vehicle market will be products with lithium batteries. Of course, these products are manufactured according to the relevant regulations and requirements of the state. However, it is self-evident whether it is still the earliest generation of bicycle that people need and whether it deviates from the original intention of the market. According to the requirements of the new national standard, the weight of the waste battery of electric vehicles (including batteries) should not exceed 55 kg. The most direct way to reduce the weight of electric vehicles is to replace lead-acid batteries with lithium batteries.

The survey shows that the pollution of electric vehicles is much more serious than that of diesel vehicles.

Recently, new energy vehicles have again become the focus of public attention. Unlike the previous financial crisis of the automobile factory and the lace news of the owner, today’s electric vehicle companies may face a series of trust crises. Just last week, the Ifo Institute of Economics in Germany published a research report saying that if we convert electricity consumption into carbon dioxide emissions and take into account lithium battery production and related energy consumption, the carbon dioxide emissions of electric vehicles may be 11% to 28% higher than those of ordinary fuel vehicles – that is to say, electric vehicles not only have no help to improve the environment, but also improve it. One-step release of pollutants. Although the issue of hardware safety has a greater impact and dissemination than the German agency’s report, the pollutant emissions studied in this report are obviously an equally important and important aspect that cannot be ignored.

Non-ferrous industry: This week, the US data is bright, the euro zone data is weak, the US dollar index has finally got rid of the oscillating platform range in the past two years, hitting a two-year high of 98.3. Most of the basic metals are under pressure, and the May Day is coming. Risk aversion factors and weak consumption make most of the products difficult to highlight.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Next week, there will be only two trading days in China. The market will focus on risk aversion, position reduction and inventory reduction. It is expected that most items will remain volatile and will return after the festival to await the guidance of the external market.

On April 23, the fluorite commodity index was 98.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.53% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 100.71% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 2815 yuan/ton as of the 24th day, the recent domestic fluorite plant start-up is normal, the mine and flotation plant start-up is normal, the supply of fluorite in the field is normal, the recent downstream commodity market is general, for the fluorite market purchasing on demand, fluorite market price fluctuation. In recent years, the downstream units started poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field was normal, and the downstream terminal receiving situation was not good, which led to a slight decline in market price trend. As of the 24th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder negotiations in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton. Fluorite price trend remained volatile.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite has risen slightly. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10483.33 yuan/ton as of 24 days. The price fluctuation of hydrofluoric acid market has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market, but the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price fluctuation of fluorite has been running. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. Fluorite prices are stable temporarily. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may maintain a volatile trend.

On April 22, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 63.75, unchanged from yesterday, down 46.93% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), and up 31.66% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recently, the domestic market price of phthalic anhydride has maintained a low trend, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has weakened, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6500-6600 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 6300 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6400-6600 yuan/ton, and the market weak The price of phthalic anhydride in China is stable, the spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the market is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride is declining.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6700 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price in the market is 6700 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port market is general. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price is stable, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. In the recent DOP market in Zhejiang, merchants’quotations have maintained 8,200 yuan/ton out of warehouse, while downstream prices have slightly decreased. The demand for upstream phthalic anhydride is limited, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride will be around 6,500 yuan/ton in the later

According to data from business associations, the average price of 441_silicon ports on April 22 was 11741.67 yuan/ton, down 2.96% from the average price of 12100 yuan/ton on January 1. It is reported that the price of 441_silicon rose slightly after returning from the year, boosted by downstream demand, followed by weak consolidation and monotonous downward adjustment.

At present, the price of silicon is low, and the price of low-grade silicon continues its downward trend. On the one hand, based on the high inventory of silicon society and the shortage of polycrystalline silicon, the demand for recycled aluminum alloy enterprises is weakened, the overall demand for the downstream is weak, the supply and demand fundamentals are not good, and on the other hand, the declining silicon market has dampened the enthusiasm of traders in the market, and traders and downstream enterprises are mainly watching or buying on demand.

Expected market outlook

Affected by the high price of electricity in the dry season and the current low price of metal silicon, the overall starting rate of each production area is low. Whether the supply and demand can be reversed or not, the market will wait and see the downstream demand. It is expected that the weak consolidation will be maintained in the near future.

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate was mainly consolidated this week. The overall price did not change much, with a drop of 0.18%. As of April 19, the average tax price of domestic light potassium carbonate was 6838 yuan/ton, and the market was weak.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Product: Potassium carbonate market is not hot this week, the trading atmosphere is cold, while the demand side is weak, resulting in the price of potassium nitrate consolidation operation. Some of the plants of the manufacturer are shut down for overhaul, the low stock purchasing market has general momentum, and the weak quotation operation is dominant. According to statistics from business associations: on April 19, the main domestic light potassium carbonate ex-factory quotation range is about 6700-6900 yuan/ton (quotation for reference only). According to different purchasing conditions, the quotation is different.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts believe that the price of potassium carbonate is mainly consolidation in the short term, while the long-term market still needs to wait and see, mainly affected by demand-side dominance.

On April 17, the fluorite commodity index was 99.12, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.25% from the peak of 127.49 points in the cycle (2019-01-03), and up 101.42% from the low of 49.21 points on December 18, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the average domestic fluorite price is 2825 yuan/ton as of the 18th day. Recently, the domestic fluorite plant started normally, the mine and flotation plant started normally, the fluorite supply in the field is normal, and the recent downstream commodity market is general. For the fluorite market, the price trend of fluorite Market shocks when it is purchased on demand. In recent years, the downstream units started to work poorly, the fluorite spot supply in the field was normal, and the downstream terminal receipt was not good, which led to a slight decline in market price trend. As of the 18th, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan was 2600-3000 yuan/ton, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi was 2700-3000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite remained volatile.

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid Market in downstream fluorite is rising. As of 18 days, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 10383.33 yuan/ton. The rising market price of hydrofluoric acid has a positive impact on the upstream fluorite market. However, the recent start-up of hydrofluoric acid plant has declined, the demand for fluorite has weakened, and the price of fluorite has oscillated. Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices slightly lower. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery quotation is general. Domestic market price trend of R134a shocks, production enterprises equipment start-up rate remains low, refrigerant market demand is general, manufacturers mainly export. But the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen buy on demand. Generally speaking, the downstream industry is in a general market. In addition, the fluorite market supply is normal. Fluorite prices are stable temporarily. Business analyst Chen Ling believes that the fluorite market price may maintain a volatile trend.

On April 16, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 94.15, up 2.5 points from yesterday, down 32.96% from the peak of 140.43 points in the cycle (2018-02-21), and up 75.69% from the low of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price trend was temporarily stable on the 17th. Up to now, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price is 10 375 yuan/ton, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid start-up rate is less than 60%. Enterprises reflect that the supply of hydrofluoric acid on the spot has declined. Recently, the market is in general. Due to the high raw material fluorite, some hydrofluoric acid manufacturers limit production and guarantee prices, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is slightly higher. Rise. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region is about 10,000-10,500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 10,000-11,000 yuan/ton. Domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices rose slightly, spot supply decreased slightly, but demand was not actually good, hydrofluoric acid market price trend is temporarily stable.

Recent downstream refrigerant products start at a low level, the upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, hydrofluoric acid products prices rose slightly. Recent downstream refrigerant market transactions are cool, R22 refrigerant facility starts at 60%, R22 market facility start-up rate is temporarily stable, the main manufacturer of bulk water factory offer price is between 18,000-18,800 yuan/ton, but the manufacturer does not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market has not changed much, and the delivery market has increased. The domestic market price trend of R134a is temporarily stable, the start-up rate of production enterprises remains low, the refrigerant market demand is general, and the manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the poor market situation, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable.

Refrigerant on-site transactions are general, refrigerant industry equipment start-up rate remains low, for upstream hydrofluoric acid market demand is normal, but the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid has decreased, Business Analyst Chen Ling believes that the hydrofluoric acid market may rise slightly.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of April 16, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2 370 yuan/ton, and the domestic methanol market continued to decline.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol performance is not good, ports and inland parts are declining to varying degrees; among them, the port extension is now linked, at this stage, security supervision on some downstream demand constraints continue to exist, such as formaldehyde, pharmaceuticals, with the port depot, follow-up supply and other repression, the negative driving force released by the Eastern market on the inland production areas gradually reflects, and although currently in the northwest; However, due to the weak follow-up of consumer market demand and the general enthusiasm of the downstream market entry, the spring inspection factor in 2019 has a relatively limited substantial boost effect after the previous over-hype. Therefore, driven by the supply-demand game, the overall performance of the short-term market is expected to be relatively weak.

In terms of freight, domestic freight for methanol has been sorted out, with reference to 160-230 yuan/ton for freight from northern Inner Mongolia to northern Shandong and 150-260 yuan/ton for freight from southern Shandong to northern Shandong. Part of Shanxi is 100-150 yuan/ton to the north of Shandong Province, and reference is 140-180 yuan/ton from Guanzhong to the north of Shandong Province and 130-180 yuan/ton to the south of Shandong Province. Ningxia to North Shandong 270 yuan/ton, Shenhua to North Shandong 290-300 yuan/ton, Xinjiang to North Shandong 550-710 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material methanol is weak finishing, under safety supervision, formaldehyde in the lower reaches of Shandong Province has partially recovered, but the overall start-up is still low, formaldehyde Market Trading appears weak and stable. Linyi is now around 1400 yuan / ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are maintained at 1500 – 1550 yuan / ton. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market was stable at the beginning of the week, and the industry was more cautious. At the weekend, some devices returned to normal, and the overall start-up rate increased to about 75%. Therefore, supply is expected to increase. In addition, downstream demand is still poor, acetate and chloroacetic acid products market is still weak. Export negotiations are still routine and there is not much good news coming from them. At present, domestic oversupply will continue. Dimethyl ether: Dimethyl ether Market is stable and small push, market atmosphere is still acceptable. Major units are supported by sudden positive, but the momentum for continued growth is insufficient. It is expected that the domestic dimethyl ether market will be stable or moderate in the short term.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, the supply side: spring in Northwest China is relatively concentrated, local supply side is relatively tight, and the price of goods is tightly supported; downstream devices: some downstream restart news, later partial demand side or slightly improved. On the bearish side, futures: the day futures market showed a downward trend, and the spot market declined accordingly; arrival: late shipment arrival concentrated, we need to be alert to the rhythm of inventory accumulation; demand side: at present, some downstream devices have not been restored, and demand side performance is weak. Methanol analysts from business associations predict that the overall performance of the domestic methanol market in the short term is relatively weak.