According to the data of the business associations’list, adipic acid in China continued its disadvantaged market in the last two months in May, mainly declining, mainly slowing down. Market prices fell slightly, and dealer quotations went down successively. By the end of the month, the quotations were generally between 8000 and 8300 yuan/ton. Overall, this month’s decline was 0.49%.
II. Analytical Review
This month, the market continued to fall, the decline slowed down, but for the time being there is no sign of stabilization. The market atmosphere is still cold, dealers are in a low mood to enter the market, adipic acid prices are 50-100 yuan/ton lower than in April, the market is gradually stalled. At present, the downstream market acceptance of high prices is general, so that the profit margin has increased. Social inventory still shows some pressure, shipment strength has slightly declined compared with last month, there is some room for negotiation.
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On the supply side, the relative excess supply is the main factor, the start-up rate of the plant is relatively high. This month, the distributors are mainly shipped one after another. On the other hand, the enthusiasm of getting the goods is not high. On the other hand, before that, many distributors accumulated a large amount of inventory. At present, the market is turning sharply downward, and the mood of reducing prices to inventory spreads, which leads to the continuous decline of prices, market price quotations and actual offer. Price difference between deposit and deposit, the quotations of distributors in North China, East China and South China have been reduced to varying degrees. In some areas, the quotations have declined by 400 yuan/ton, while in most areas, the price of distributors has remained weak.
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In terms of demand, the current market supply exceeds demand, the downstream demand lacks substantial improvement, the downstream start-up rate is still slightly insufficient, the start-up rate is basically less than 50%, the upstream adipic acid has not formed a strong boost, the market is still in the inventory cycle, in addition, the cost side also makes adipic acid show some pressure, upstream pure benzene prices also fell sharply, falling more than 5% in April, subject to cost side. Loss of profit, adipic acid market was dragged down by the downward trend of pure benzene. According to the monitoring of business associations, the reference price of East China market is about 8000-8300 yuan/ton, and the price of South China is generally between 8100-8300 yuan/ton.
3. Future Market Forecast
Analysts of adipic acid in the chemical branch of business association believe that the adipic acid market is still in the process of de-stocking. The price fluctuation is also returning to rationality. In the later stage, the market may fall into the stage of weak rise and fall. Therefore, the Business Association believes that in June, adipic acid market is difficult to improve greatly, and the market may stop falling and stabilize more, but the upward margin will not be very large.