According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of methane chloride in China continued to rise after the May 1st holiday. The average price of dichloromethane in Shandong was 2800 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3500 yuan/ton at the end of May 13th, up to 25%. The average price of trichloromethane in Shandong was 2733 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 3200 yuan/ton at the end of May 13th, up by 15.38%.
II. Cause Analysis
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Product Reasons: After May 1st, due to the smooth start of the downstream refrigerant market as a whole, just need to be combined with Shandong Jinling chemical overhaul, the overall supply of methane chloride market is tight, enterprises and traders Multi-Limit shipment and low inventory. At present, the quotation of dichloride in Shandong is about 3500 yuan/ton and trichloride is about 3200 yuan/ton; that of dichloride in Jiangsu is about 3700-3800 yuan/ton and that of trichloride is about 4000 yuan/ton; that of dichloride in Jiangxi is about 3750 yuan/ton and that of trichloride is about 3650 yuan/ton. In terms of start-up, at present, the time for Jinling chemical plant to be repaired and restored is uncertain; Dongying Jinmao fully loaded operation; Luxi chemical plant to start 60%; Jiangsu science and technology plant to start normal; Jiangxi science and technology plant to run normally, etc.
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Industry chain: Upstream, the natural gas market gradually warmed up, with a small increase of 1.82% after May 1, and the current average price of about 3363 yuan/ton; the domestic methanol market rose and fell, the mainland partially rose, downstream replenishment and later part of the plant parking and other good news support, the mainland part of the market shipment is still possible, coupled with the recent increase in freight charges caused by increased arrival costs, part of the continued to rise, at present all. The price is about 2248 yuan/ton; the liquid chlorine market is stable and weak, and the storage pressure of enterprises is relatively large. Enterprises in North China offer more than 1 yuan/ton, and subsidized freight is about 100 yuan/ton. Eastern China is affected by overhaul, and more than 500 yuan/ton. Downstream, R410a market shocks adjustment, refrigerant downstream market demand is flat, mostly export orders; R22 refrigerant market overall start-up rate is about 60%, market turnover is flat, now the enterprise water factory reported 18500-18800 yuan/ton.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 18th week (5.6-5.10) of 2019, there were 24 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, of which 3 commodities increased by more than 5% accounted for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dichloromethane (13.33%), trichloromethane (10.98%) and acetone (5.15%). There are 31 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 4.1% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are hydrochloric acid (-34.43%), sulfuric acid (-21.48%) and ammonium chloride (-8.20%).
3. Future Market Forecast
Data analysts of business associations’methane chloride data believe that at present, the overall start-up of methane chloride production enterprises is low, the spot supply is tight and the inventory is low, and the supply-side gap is difficult to effectively remedy in a short time. Although the current downstream market demand is general, it is about to enter the peak season of refrigerant demand, and the market of methane chloride is expected to be strong in the near future.