This week, the price of baking soda was adjusted (6.13-6.20)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business club, the price of baking soda was adjusted and operated this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the end of the week was 2766.67 yuan / ton, up 74.37% year-on-year. On June 19, the commodity index of baking soda was 183.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.14% from the highest point 235.84 in the cycle (2021-11-10), and up 108.03% from the lowest point 88.27 on December 22, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2020 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda has been adjusted and operated, and the downstream market has a general demand recently. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 2750-2950 yuan / ton. Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business agency, the mainstream market price of light soda ash in East China is about 2900-3100 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the current market price of light soda ash is about 2900-3100 yuan / ton. Data show that the output of soda ash in the week was 592300 tons, a decrease of 11300 tons or 1.87%.

 

Demand: downstream, the demand for baking soda from medicine, textiles and food is acceptable. Raw material soda ash price consolidation operation this week. The average market price of light soda ash was 2920 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 2930 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a price increase of 0.34% and a year-on-year increase of 58.72%. In the downstream, the demand for sodium bicarbonate from medicine, textile and food is fairly good in the near future. In general, the price of sodium bicarbonate may maintain a consolidation operation in the short term, depending on the downstream market demand.

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Methanol market fluctuates in a narrow range

This week, the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range. The price was relatively higher, rising first and then falling. The main reason was that the market demand improved and the receiving price rose. However, after the methanol futures fell in the middle of the week, the trading atmosphere became weaker, and the atmosphere of the domestic methanol spot market was light, and the price fell slightly.

 

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According to the monitoring data of the business agency, from June 10 to 17, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises rose from 2657 yuan / ton to 2712 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 2.07% in the cycle, a price increase of 1.69% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 6.79%.

 

As of the noon closing on June 20, methanol futures in Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange fluctuated downward. Ma2209 contract opened at 2750 yuan / ton, with the highest price of 2759 yuan / ton and the lowest price of 2667 yuan / ton. It closed at 2674 yuan / ton at the end of the day, down 95 yuan / ton compared with the previous trading day, and 941100 positions were held at noon.

 

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Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of June 17:

 

Region, Price

Qinghai region, No quotation

Shanxi region, 2560-2620 yuan / ton

Liaoning region, 2720 yuan / ton to cash exchange

Fujian, 2800-2850 yuan / ton, cash exchange from warehouse nearby

Two lakes region, Negotiation reference: 2880-2900 yuan / ton delivered to spot exchange

Anhui region, The mainstream negotiation is about 2730-2800 yuan / ton

Henan region, The shipment price is 2700 yuan / ton

The price of products in the methanol industry chain is mixed, the price of natural gas in the upstream product of methanol is stable, the price of coal is rising, and the cost of methanol is strongly supported; The price of Zhonghua East glacial acetic acid, a downstream product, fell the most; Among related products, Shandong glycol has the largest price increase.

 

In the external market, as of the closing on June 15, CFR Southeast Asia methanol market closed at $392.50-393.50/t, down $7 / T. US Gulf methanol market closing price 110.50-111.00 cents / gallon; The closing quotation of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 366.50-367.00 euros / ton, down 1.5 euros / ton.

 

region ., country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, CFR Southeast Asia ., 392.50-393.50 USD / ton, – USD 7 / ton

Europe and America, US Gulf, 110.50-111.00 cents / gallon, 0 cents / gallon

Europe, FOB Rotterdam, 366.50-367.00 euros / ton, – 1.5 euro / ton

Methanol production cost support may be weakened. From the fundamental point of view, the supply is relatively abundant and the demand changes are limited. The methanol analysts of the business club predict that the domestic methanol market may decline in the short term.

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The recent n-propanol market is weak and downward (6.16-6.21)

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of June 21, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8483 yuan / ton, which was reduced by 17 yuan / ton, or 0.20%, compared with June 12 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8500 yuan / ton).

 

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It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business club that recently (6.6-6.21), the domestic n-propanol market as a whole has shown a weak and slightly downward trend. During the last ten days of June 16 and 17, the domestic n-propanol market in Shandong had a slight rise. Since the 18th, the overall n-propanol market has been reduced by a narrow range. On the 21st, the cumulative n-propanol market price in Shandong has been reduced by about 50-100 yuan / ton. Most of the price adjustment factors come from the n-propanol suppliers’ adjustment according to their own inventory range. The downstream demand has not been greatly boosted compared with the previous period. It mainly focuses on just needed procurement. The information on the supply and demand side in the market is relatively calm. At present, as of the 21st, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 7850-8400 yuan / ton, and the barrel price is around 9300-9700 yuan / ton. In Nanjing, during the overhaul of n-propanol unit, the price and the previous quotation were stable by the end of June. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. The actual order negotiation is the main thing, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

 

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In terms of upstream ethylene, on June 20, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $986-996 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1096-1106 / ton. The price of international crude oil futures rose. Oil prices rebounded slightly on Monday, the market gradually returned to rationality, and tight supply still dominated, overshadowing the impact of the slowdown in global economic growth. On June 20, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $108.12/barrel, an increase of US $0.13 or 0.12%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $114.13/barrel, up US $1.01 or 0.89%. Affected by the rising price of upstream crude oil, the ethylene market may mainly rise in the later period.

 

Forecast of future market trend of n-propanol

 

At present, the downstream demand side of domestic n-propanol is relatively stable, the on-site supply side has little change, and the demand side is mainly based on rigid demand. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market is stable and small, and the interval adjustment operation is the main. More attention should be paid to the specific changes in the supply and demand side.

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Raw materials fell, caprolactam market weakened (6.13-6.17)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the bulk list data of business agency, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 14833 yuan / ton on June 13 and 14825 yuan / ton on June 17. The price of caprolactam fell by 0.06% this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the price of raw material pure benzene continued to decline, and the cost side of caprolactam weakened. The units of some manufacturers were shut down for maintenance, and the supply of caprolactam was tight. The downstream PA6 unit has reduced the load, the procurement has been reduced, and the on-site trading volume is relatively small. As of June 17, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 16000 yuan / ton, which was accepted and withdrawn within 6 months. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 16000 yuan / ton, the manufacturer’s capacity is 450000 tons / year, and it will be accepted and collected within 6 months. Baling Petrochemical’s caprolactam liquid price is 16000 yuan / ton, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons / year. It will be accepted and withdrawn within 6 months. The price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water is 15500 yuan / ton. It is accepted and sent to East China. The manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year.

 

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This week, the raw material pure benzene fell continuously, and the price fell from the high of 10000 yuan. Crude oil and pure benzene in the outer disk fell broadly, and the external information guidance weakened. The centralized maintenance period of domestic pure benzene enterprises is coming to an end, and Jiujiang Petrochemical’s new pure benzene capacity is put into operation; East China port inventory showed signs of warming, and the supply side increased. Downstream styrene and other products lost profits. Under the pressure of cost, some units were shut down and reduced in demand. Multiple negative drag, pure benzene fell this week. This week, the price of pure benzene in East China, South China and central China of Sinopec was stable at 10000 yuan / ton, and the price of pure benzene in some factories in North China was reduced by 200 yuan / ton.

 

3、 Aftermarket forecast

 

The caprolactam analysts of the business society believe that the caprolactam raw materials are falling at present, and the cost side support is insufficient. The downstream demand is weak, and the on-site procurement is cautious. Led by negative factors, the market price of caprolactam is expected to fall in the short term.

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Stable operation of PMMA market (6.13-6.17)

According to the data monitored by the business club, as of June 17, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16925.00 yuan / ton this week, and the price remained stable. Compared with the same period last week, the price was mainly stable, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers was about 16500 yuan / ton, the price of PMMA was mainly stable, the focus of negotiation was stable, the price range this week was small, and the overall market supply and demand was balanced.

 

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This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16925.00 yuan / ton. The overall market operated smoothly, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants actively shipped and gave up orders. Compared with last week, the price remained unchanged. The price of PMMA was stable, the overall supply and demand was balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiation was stable and the supply side was normal.

 

Rubber and plastic index: on June 17, the rubber and plastic index was 800 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 24.53% from the highest point of 1060 points in the cycle (March 14, 2012), and up 51.52% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

 

According to the PMMA analysts of business agency, it is expected that in the short term, the price of PMMA will operate stably, the operating rate will be normal, and the operation will be stable and strong. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

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Weak market demand, PA6 market turned down

1、 Price trend:

 

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According to the bulk list data of the business club, the domestic market of PA6 has fallen recently, and the spot prices of various brands have been lowered. As of June 16, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 16500 yuan / ton, up or down by +0.61% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

 

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

 

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose in general this week. The far point crude oil was strong due to the tension in Eastern Europe and the reduction of other oil producing countries. Although it fell back due to the impact of the Federal Reserve over the weekend, pure benzene and caprolactam were supported by it. Downstream procurement is based on demand and production is maintained. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to be strong in the short term.

 

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The upstream caprolactam market trend is positive, and PA6 cost side support is stable this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is generally stable at 70%, which has fallen back in a narrow range recently. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is still tense, and the strong operation of international crude oil prices has a fair supporting and conducting effect on the cost side of PA6. The supply side of PA6 is relatively abundant, but the profit of the manufacturer is under pressure. The load of downstream enterprises fell in a narrow range. As the market entered the off-season, the demand slowed down. The purchaser is cautious in taking the goods, mainly in small order purchase to maintain production, and the delivery is not good.

 

3、 Future forecast:

 

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA6 fell this week, the trend of caprolactam rose and fell slightly, and the cost support of PA6 was stable. Downstream enterprises mainly take small orders to maintain production. There is resistance to high price goods in the market, and the trading volume shrinks. It is expected that the trend of PA6 market may be reduced by a narrow margin in the short term.

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This week, the price of Shandong isooctanol fell by 2.12% (6.6-6.10)

Recent price trend of isooctanol

 

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong fell from 12566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 21.82% compared with the same period last year. On June 9, the isooctanol commodity index was 90.93, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 33.87% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 158.69% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

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Weak upstream support and insufficient downstream demand

 

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week: the octanol unit of Jianlan chemical industry is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12300 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12300 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

 

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The price fell from 8080.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7930.60 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.86%, basically the same as that of the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

 

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From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 11987.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11925.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.01% compared with the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened.

 

Weak upstream support, insufficient downstream demand, outlook bearish for isooctanol

 

In the middle of June, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol was dominated by a small fluctuation. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was average. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

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Nitrile rubber market fell slightly (6.1-6.10)

In the first ten days of June, the market price of nitrile rubber fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 21700 yuan / ton, down 4.62% from 22750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

 

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The operating rate of NBR in China is close to 80%, and the supply side is relatively sufficient; Since June, the ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises has been significantly adjusted downward. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 20700 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3305e is 21000 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3308e is 22400 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of Nandi nitrile 1052 is 23400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 1051 is 23800 yuan / ton.

 

In June, the price of butadiene rose sharply, the price of acrylonitrile fell slightly, and the cost side was still supported. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the price of butadiene was 12096 yuan / ton, up 6.66% from 11341 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of June 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 11240 yuan / ton, down 1.92% from 11460 at the beginning of the month.

 

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The downstream operation of nitrile rubber is low, and the demand side is weak. According to the business agency, the downstream insulation foaming, rubber hose and other industries started in the vicinity of 50-60%, and most of them purchased on demand. The market of nitrile rubber fell slightly.

 

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts of business club believe that the supply and demand of NBR are slightly deadlocked, and it is expected that the NBR market will be weak and volatile.

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This week, the tin price fell first and then rose. The overall downward trend (6.2-6.10)

This week, the spot tin market price (6.02-6.10) fell as a whole. The average price in the domestic market was 271110 yuan / ton last weekend and 260910 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.76% this week.

 

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The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure.

 

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of bulk commodity prices rising and falling in the 23rd week of 2022 (6.6-6.10), there were 9 kinds of commodities with month on month rise in the non-ferrous sector, and the top 3 commodities were metal praseodymium (0.80%), cobalt (0.77%) and lead (0.71%). A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, with nickel (-3.64%), silver (-2.23%) and zinc (-1.33%) as the top three products. The average rise and fall this week was -0.36%.

 

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Situation of tin futures market on June 10, 2022

 

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 262500 yuan / ton- 10080 yuan / ton, three thousand eight hundred and eight

London tin, 35000 USD / ton, 0 USD / ton, three thousand and five

In terms of futures market, the trend of bottoming out and rebounding after the downward trend this week, with the overall weekly drop of more than 2%. The spot market followed the trend of Shanghai tin this week, and the price fell first and then rose. Before the holiday, the tin price bottomed out and rebounded. However, the downstream demand performance was general, and the support for tin price was limited. The inventory rebounded in the previous period, dragging down the market mentality, and the tin price fell. Shanghai tin rose around the 9th. Data released by the Indonesian Ministry of trade on Wednesday showed that Indonesia’s refined tin exports in May were 5283.46 tons, down 42.8% from April. The market is expected to tighten the supply in the future, boosting the tin price. In terms of downstream demand, the recent positive domestic policies have been continuously released, and the future market demand is expected to improve. Double positive support tin price upward. However, at present, the overall demand performance of the downstream is general, and the release of demand needs to be digested for a period of time. Therefore, it is expected that the upward space of tin price is limited, and the future market will focus on the downstream construction.

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The price of sodium metabisulfite was stable this week (6.6-6.10)

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

 

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According to the monitoring of the business club, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3316.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The overall high level was stable.

 

In June, supported by the continuous rise in raw material costs, some enterprises adjusted the market price of sodium pyrosulfite again, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to rise again at the beginning of the month. This week, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market performed well as a whole. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3000 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were around 3200-3300 yuan / ton. Enterprises mainly completed orders from old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

 

Since the beginning of June, the price of domestic soda ash has increased slightly by 1.75% and the price of sulfur has decreased slightly by 1.78%. In general, the price of upstream raw materials is still high, and the cost will support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

 

Business analysts believe that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be strong in the short term under the support of costs.

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