I. price trend
The market price of ammonium sulphate fell slightly in the first week of December, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On December 2, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulphate was 560 yuan / ton, and on December 6, the average domestic ex factory price of ammonium sulphate was 550 yuan / ton, and the weekly price dropped by 1.79%. Up to now, the ammonium sulfate commodity index on December 9 is 46.03, which is flat with yesterday, 56.69% lower than the highest point 106.28 (2012-05-24), and 25.59% higher than the lowest point 36.65 on June 23, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)
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II. Market analysis
Product: this week, the market of ammonium sulphate is slightly lower. The domestic and foreign market of ammonium sulphate is weak, and the market of coking ammonium sulphate is stable. The price of mainstream ammonium sulfate in Central China is about 420-650 yuan / ton, that in Henan Province is 450-650 yuan / ton, that in Hebei Province is 480-750 yuan / ton, that in East China is 450-680 yuan, that in North China is 450-650 yuan / ton, and that in Northeast China is 450-650 yuan / ton.
Industrial chain: the agricultural demand is off-season. At present, the production enthusiasm of the downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is not high, and the operating rate is around 40%. The raw materials are mostly purchased on demand, and the supply is sufficient. Generally speaking, the demand for ammonium chloride in the downstream market is weak. This week, the price of ammonium chloride is slightly loose. With the small increase of nitrogen fertilizer market, it is expected to drive up, and the industry slightly improved. At present, the compound fertilizer enterprises are mainly horizontal arrangement with limited adjustment space. Mainly focus on the trend of urea. Compared with other regions, the northeast region has improved in goods delivery.
Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 48th week of 2019 (12.2-12.6), there are 17 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling, including 1 kind of commodity with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the number of commodities monitored in the chemical sector; the top three commodities are R22 (5.77%), liquid ammonia (3.72%) and organosilicon DMC (3.17%). There are 26 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, and the top three products were propylene (- 3.85%), isopropanol (- 3.63%) and polysilicon (- 3.34%). This week’s average was – 0.26%.
III. future forecast
According to analysts of ammonium sulfate of business association, at present, the start-up of ammonium sulfate Market in winter is slow, and the operation rate of downstream compound fertilizer enterprises is slightly increased, but the enthusiasm of stock up is insufficient. Domestic demand for ammonium sulphate is weak abroad, and the delivery volume is average. The market bidding of coking ammonium sulfate is better than before. It is expected that the internal ammonium sulfate Market will fluctuate slightly in the later stage, while the coking ammonium sulfate Market will remain stable.