I. price trend
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price is stable this week, and the asphalt price is reported to close at 3654 yuan / ton, 0.22% lower than last week’s Asphalt price.
II. Analysis of influencing factors
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Product: after the National Day holiday, the asphalt market demand did not improve significantly, and the international oil price fluctuated downward, and the asphalt market price continued to bear pressure.
Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil market has been negative news, and the overall price of crude oil has declined. According to official Saudi news, the country’s crude oil has returned to the level of production before the attack; the international energy agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020; the EIA inventory data of the United States was again negative, with both crude oil inventory and production showing an increase; the weak global economic performance limited the rise of international oil prices.
In terms of asphalt Market: after the National Day holiday, the demand of asphalt Market in the North has not changed significantly, and the crude oil price has been continuously lower, which makes the asphalt market price bear a downward trend, and the asphalt price of some refineries has been slightly reduced after the festival. The market demand in East China continued the strong situation before the festival, but the shipment of Sinopec and PetroChina refineries was affected to some extent during the national day, and the inventory of refineries increased significantly. At present, the resources of South China and Northeast China still continue to flow into East China. The market demand in South China and southwest China is average. After the national day, the market demand did not show a strong situation, the short-term asphalt market demand performance is hard to be optimistic.
III. future forecast
Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that: the international crude oil price has fallen in shock, and there is no large-scale rush period after the National Day holiday. In addition to the better performance in East China, asphalt prices in other regions are expected to decline steadily.