Short supply, limited improvement in demand, PC shock adjustment (8.12-8.16)

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the PC market in China showed a shaky adjustment trend in the third week of August. As of August 16, the average price quoted by domestic producers and traders for Bayer 2805 was about 18 800.00 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 0.18% compared with the beginning of the week.

II. Cause Analysis

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PC upstream bisphenol A prices continue the recent trend this week, the market can not continue to rise or fall. On-site purchasing and trading is negative, and merchants have greater resistance to shipment. Downstream factories have a low willingness to stock up, so they need to purchase prudently. Actual negotiation of more orders and lower prices has less room for traders to operate. Businessmen have a heavy wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the domestic bisphenol A market will be weaker in the near future, and the cost support for domestic PC is not good. At present, there are many parking situations in PC production lines in China, and the recent transit typhoons also have an impact on the start-up rate. The typhoon also led to delays in the arrival of imports. In many ways, domestic supply is affected. Spot supply is tight, which pushes up spot PC prices and increases some brands. In the short term, the willingness of factories and traders to bid for their inventories, but the mindset of the traders is still more cautious. Demand has not improved. In the third week of August, the domestic PC spot price shocks and adjustments.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Business PC analysts believe that recent domestic PC upstream bisphenol A continued to decline, short PC cost. Due to the insufficient start-up rate of domestic PC production equipment and high import price, the current tight supply of PC boosts spot price. However, the downstream demand improvement is limited, and the purchase of stock is prudent. It is expected that PC will continue to consolidate with minor shocks in the near future. It is suggested that close attention should be paid to the supply of goods at home and abroad.

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This week’s narrow price cut in the sulphur market (8.12-8.16)

Price data

 

According to the data of business associations, the market price of sulphur in East China declined narrowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of granular sulphur was 810 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average price of granular sulphur was 790 yuan/ton. The average price of granular sulphur dropped 20 yuan/ton, a decline of 2.47%, 27.23% compared with the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic sulphur market continued to be weak, and the price fell sharply. Within the week, refineries in various regions continued to decline according to their own shipments. As of the 16th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Sinopec’s Shandong region was about 840-850 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 680-740 yuan/ton, and the price was reduced by 30 yuan/ton; the mainstream price of solid sulfur in North China was 650-700 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulfur was 620-660 yuan/ton, and the price of solid and liquid sulfur was reduced by 30 yuan/ton simultaneously. The mainstream price of solid sulfur in the eastern region is 680-740 yuan/ton, while the mainstream price of liquid sulfur is 660-730 yuan/ton, which is temporarily stable compared with last week’s price.

Industry chain: The price trend of downstream sulfuric acid Shandong market fell slightly this week. The quotation was lowered from 225 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week to 217.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, falling by 7.50 yuan/ton, or 3.33%, 50.57% compared with the same period last year. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid market continued to be depressed. The prices of some sulfuric acid factories in Shandong fell slightly, the inventory of the factories was small, and the downstream demand was small. This week, Zibo and Weifang in Shandong Province were affected by Typhoon “Lichma”. Some sections of roads were seriously flooded, and some acid enterprises took advantage of the situation to stop work and repair. The contradiction between supply and demand in downstream acid market is obvious, and the support for sulphur is limited.

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Industry: At present, the domestic sulphur market demand performance is low, there is no news guide inside and outside, the negotiation atmosphere is cold, the enthusiasm of terminal purchasing is weak, under the lack of information guidance in the market and weak buyer’s intention, the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the hollow state of the industry is obvious.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market lacks information support, the enthusiasm of on-site negotiations is weak, the mindset of operators is mainly impasse and wait-and-see, and the short-term sulfur market is expected to be vulnerable to consolidation.

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China’s domestic ethyl acetate Market rose narrowly (8.12-16)

Price Trend

The domestic market of ethyl acetate increased narrowly. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the market of ethyl acetate in eastern China offered 5516 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and up to 5583 yuan/ton in eastern China, the overall increase was 1.21%.

 

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II. Analytical Review

Products: The domestic market of ethyl acetate has risen slightly. After centralized purchasing in the previous market, the enterprise’s inventory is relatively low, the market price quotation has risen, and the market turnover has increased. However, the downstream market is still off-season, and the substantive digestion of raw materials is limited. Under the pressure of cost surface, the space of supply concession is limited, the inventory of the manufacturer is low, and there is still upward space in the short term. Up to now, the market offers are as follows: the mainstream reference offer in East China is 5600-5700 yuan/ton, that in North China is 5500-5600 yuan/ton, and that in South China is 5800 yuan/ton.

 

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Industry chain: acetic acid: acetic acid plant start-up is low, the market supply situation is difficult to alleviate, intermediate traders stock is limited, downstream support is strong, export support is strong, but short-term acetic acid start-up Commission is limited, short-term acetic acid market is still tight, the offer continues to rise. The ethanol market is stable and small. Dongfeng plant in Northeast China will be opened, and the supply will be restored. The supply and demand in South China market will be light.

3. Future Market Forecast

After the shutdown of Huayi Ethyl Acetate Plant in Anhui Province, the overall starting rate of Ethyl Acetate is relatively low, the supply side is tight, and the market is dominated by small orders. Raw material acetic acid still has upward space. Business associations expect the market cost of ethyl acetate to support monitoring. It is expected that there will be a steady upward trend next week.

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DMF market was stable this week (8.4-8.9)

Price Trend

 

According to data from business associations, the market of DMF has been stable this week. The average price of DMF this week is 4433.33 yuan/ton. The current price is 36.59% lower than that of last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: DMF market is stable this week, mainstream manufacturers in East China quote between 4450 and 4550 yuan per ton, mainstream manufacturers in Guangdong at 4600 yuan per ton. The annual output of Junhua DMF plant in Henan Province is 30,000 tons per year. The restart time is expected to be around this weekend. Anyang nine-day 120,000 tons/year DMF plant stopped for overhaul on the evening of July 2. The overhaul time was about 17 days, and it has been restarted; 30,000 tons/year plant stopped for overhaul on June 13. Shandong Jincheng Coal Daily 12,000 tons/year DMF plant load 70%. DMF has sufficient inventory and stable price.

Industry Chain: Upstream methanol is boosted by plant overhaul and olefin extraction. Demand for terminal and trade replenishment is rising, which affects the market. The price at the beginning of the week is 2022.00 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week is 2106.00 yuan/ton, up by 4.17%. Domestic slurry manufacturer equipment start-up rate is general, maintain just need to purchase, DMF price is stable.

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3. Future Market Forecast

The upstream methanol market has rebounded recently due to the increase of overhaul facilities and the speculation of traders. The downstream slurry enterprises are generally affected by long-term policies such as environmental protection. Therefore, the DMF product analysts of business associations believe that the short-term DMF market is mainly weak consolidation.

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The domestic acetic acid Market in China rose sharply (8.5-8.9) due to tight supply.

Price Trend

 

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market rose sharply this week. The average price of acetic acid in eastern China was around 2916 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, and the average price of acetic acid in eastern China rose to about 316 yuan/ton at the weekend, an increase of 6.86%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2950/ton; in Shandong is about 3000-3150 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 3000-3050 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2750 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 3100-3250 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3300-3400 yuan/ton; and in South China it is about 3200-3300 yuan/ton. About.

II. Cause Analysis

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Product: This week, the domestic acetic acid market was affected by supply tension, and the price went up sharply. At present, the inventory of enterprises in North China is low, and the quantity of shipments is limited. Among them, the overhaul of 500,000 tons/year plant in Longyu, Henan Province, is postponed to the end of the month, and the load of 350,000 tons/year plant in Yongli, Bohua, Tianjin, is reduced to about mid-August from July 25. There is a shortage of spot goods in East China, some areas are affected by typhoon, and logistics transportation is affected. Soap’s 1.2 million tons/year plant has been restored after a short shutdown, and the start-up is unstable. Huayi Anhui Plant plans to repair a 500,000 tons/year plant for 25 days from August 15. It has been reported that a large-scale plant in Nanjing will be limited in production. The price of acetic acid will rise because of typhoon in South China. At present, the overall start-up rate of the industry is about 85%, and the shortage of supply-side is difficult to effectively remedy in the short term.

Industry chain: upstream, domestic methanol market is affected by equipment maintenance and TRADERS’replenishment. It runs steadily in a week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of methanol market is 2076 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it is 2136 yuan/ton, up 2.89%, which is 29.39% lower than the same period last year. Domestic acetate and vinyl acetate industries are supported by raw material acetic acid prices. Sound, within a week more strong operation, the overall start-up rate has declined, downstream just need to be flat, the future market still needs to pay attention to raw materials; domestic PTA enterprises overall start-up rate is about 95%, downstream industry demand is flat in the short term difficult to ease, expected future shocks on the soft side.

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International: North American acetic acid market showed stable performance this week, Celanese’s offer increased, but raw material methanol support was insufficient, and the current quotation was about 360 US dollars/ton; Asian acetic acid market was affected by supply tension in China, acetic acid prices rose sharply, currently 425-455 US dollars/ton; European acetic acid market showed stable performance and trade level in the industry. At present, the price is around 650 euros/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

Acetic acid analysts of business associations believe that the supply of acetic acid in the domestic market is becoming more and more tense. Typhoon has affected the supply of acetic acid in eastern and southern China. Traders are more willing to offer and sell, and raw material methanol has recently shown a warming performance, which further supports the price of acetic acid. The downstream market is currently flat and some areas are affected by it. Environmental security inspection affects inadequate start-up, poor demand and a certain degree of resistance to the high price of acetic acid. It is expected that the domestic acetic acid price will soar in a short period of time, and the future market needs to pay attention to the start-up of enterprises.

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Interregional fluctuations in China’s domestic ethanol market (8.5-8.9)

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the price of domestic ethanol market at the beginning of the week was 5380 yuan/ton, rising by 0.19% annually, and falling by 3.64% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

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Products: This week, the alcohol market rose and fell differently among regions: Heilongjiang showed a weak and integrated performance, Henan region went up, and some areas did not go up. The inventory of small factories in Heilongjiang area of Northeast China is high, the mentality of shipment is positive, the overhaul of large factories is continuing, and the equipment of overhaul enterprises in Jilin area is open, and the inventory of enterprises is not high at present; the equipment of enterprises in Henan area is continuously affected by environmental protection, and the start-up load is not high. Houyuan feeds materials this week, Xinheyang device stops, Huaxing one-line production is supplied. Supported by favorable conditions, the market price goes up; Changxing plant production in eastern China reduces the water-free load of flower hall and increases the price; Runtai plant in Leizhou, Zhanjiang, Guangdong Province, starts up in South China, and Guangxi is in a situation of weak supply and demand. The supply of goods is not high, the downstream demand basically maintains a small amount of just-in-demand procurement, and the supply of goods from other places is low. The situation is that the sales of corn alcohol in Northeast China are stable, and there is no water in other places.

Industry chain: In the upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Jilin region of Northeast China closed at 1740 yuan/ton, which was stable compared with last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand remained stable, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava entered the starch market more and dried chips exported less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars/ton, theoretical port price of East China 1900-1920 yuan/ton, and domestic East China purchased goods from Northeast China and sold them. Enterprises produce in multiple inventories, and the exchange rate of RMB breaks 7 short of domestic imports. Downstream, East China Ethyl Acetate was 5,600 yuan/ton on Thursday, up 3.7% from last week’s price.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Short-term ethanol market focus is still on supply and demand. First of all, from the perspective of supply, the Fukang plant in Meihekou will start on the 10th, and a cassava alcohol factory in East China will also arrange maintenance plans. Houyuan hears that there is still a short-term shutdown plan in the near future. In summary, the supply side will remain tight. Looking at the terminal market, although it is in the off-season demand, it still has a short-term shutdown plan. Just need consumption still exists, Jiangmen Qianxin Ethyl Ester equipment coal to gas temporary shutdown, but more consumption of pre-purchase inventory, has little impact on the market in the short term. In summary, business ethanol analysts predict that in the short term, supply will still become the point to support the market, but demand is weak and difficult to offset, the market may have a rising trend. But the range is not large, maintaining 20-50 yuan/ton floating.

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The market price of dry-process aluminium fluoride remained stable this week (8.5-8.10)

Price Trend

 

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 10333 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 10333 yuan/ton. The price was 0.0% higher than last week.

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II. Market Analysis

The price of aluminium fluoride has been stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is between 9800 and 10500 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is between 9800 and 10500 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Tianrui Grain Technology Co., Ltd. quoted 11,000 yuan per ton of aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 10,800 yuan per ton, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy Chemical Aluminum Fluoride to 10,500 yuan per ton.

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Industry Chain: Hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline this week, the recent market situation of manufacturers has not improved significantly, the downstream refrigerant industry is still operating at a low level, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, coupled with the domestic hydrofluoric acid plant to maintain a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, under some manufacturers. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region was 10500-11500 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market was 11000-11500 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has been slightly lower, the demand of refrigerant industry downstream is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. The price of aluminium fluoride products did not follow the price of hydrofluoric acid downstream this week. At present, the price of aluminium fluoride is at a low level in the year, and it is 22.7% lower than the price of 13300 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year. Some aluminium fluoride factories have reduced or stopped production. As of July, the total output of aluminium fluoride in China from January to July 2019 is about 310,000 tons, which is about 9.5% lower than that of the same period last year. Aluminum fluoride manufacturers are currently mainly at competitive prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Analysts of Aluminum Fluoride Industry of Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of upstream raw material hydrofluoric acid continues to retreat, but the intent of Aluminum Fluoride manufacturers is obvious, and the price of Aluminum Fluoride is expected to run steadily next week.

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Carnegie Stops Production and Explodes Cobalt Price, Be Wary of Rising Risk

I. Trend analysis

 

 

According to the monitoring data of business associations, cobalt price surged in mid-July. On August 7, the cobalt market was completely detonated and the price of cobalt soared. On August 7, the price of cobalt rose by 10,000 yuan/ton per day, 4.17% per day, and on August 7, the price of cobalt rose by 245,666.67 yuan/ton. The price of cobalt rose sharply, mainly because of the announcement of the closure of Mutanda Copper and Cobalt Mine by Glencore, which caused panic about the shortage of cobalt ore supply in the market, and the cobalt market rose sharply.

II. Market Analysis

Cause analysis of closure of cobalt ore by Jianengke

Mutanda is a large copper and cobalt mine in Congo. In 2018, Mutanda produced 190,000 tons of copper and 27,300 tons of cobalt, which accounted for 0.9% and 20.8% of the world’s supply, respectively. Mutanda’s cobalt output reached 134,000 tons in the first half of 2019, which was 13.6% year-on-year. What are the reasons for the closure of the cobalt mine by the end of 2019? What impact will it have on the cobalt market?

1. Mutanda oxidized ore is facing depletion. Since 2019, the proportion of sulphide ore supply in the company has gradually increased, and the ore grade has been lowered. The process change will bring new capital expenditure and cost to Canon. Low cobalt prices are not enough to support this cost. In the future, the pressure of cobalt price increases.

2. The tax rate was raised. In June 2018, the new mining law of Congo was implemented, and the cobalt resource tax increased from 2% to 10%. Increased tax rate, disguised increase in the cost of enterprises, cobalt mining enterprises to increase the break-even point, after the market cobalt price low range.

3. Previously, it was predicted that the global cobalt surplus will be about 355,000 tons in 2020, and the cobalt ore supply will be excessive, which will lead to a sharp drop in cobalt prices. The MB cobalt price will fall from the position of the highest 40+US dollars/pound to 12 US dollars/pound, a drop of more than 70%. The cobalt industry will face the problem of over supply in the next 2-3 years if new supply is released on schedule due to the surge in cobalt prices and the surge in global supply. The Mutanda shutdown will reduce the supply by about 28,000 tons. It is estimated that the global surplus will be only about 0.75 million tons by 2020, and the surplus has been greatly reduced. At the same time, taking into account that the reduction in the supply of civilian mining in the Democratic Republic of Congo has exceeded 50%, the risk of cobalt being in short supply or demand will increase significantly in 2020.

In summary, we can find that the main reason for Jianeng Co’s suspension of cobalt mining is the rising cost, but the cobalt price keeps falling, and the cobalt price is far below the break-even point. Glencore shuts down cobalt ore to reduce losses, while reducing global cobalt supply, stimulating cobalt prices. At the same time, we also found that Jianengke has the ability to increase cobalt production at any time, and the KCC project can increase production capacity at any time. With the rise of cobalt price, Jianengke can restart Mutanda Copper-Cobalt Mine at any time, exceeding the break-even point of cobalt ore. After the cobalt price, the market has sufficient momentum to rise, but the risk of catching up is high.

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Demand analysis

1. Subsidies have declined and sales of new energy vehicles have declined.

On August 7, BYD released its July sales bulletin for new energy vehicles. Data show that sales of BYD’s new energy vehicles in July 2019 were 16,567, down 11.8% from the same period last year; sales of BYD’s new energy vehicles in July were significantly lower than those in June, 26,571, a sharp drop of 37.7%, a drop of nearly 10,000 vehicles, mainly due to the impact of the expiration of the transitional subsidy policy on June 25, resulting in a sharp decline in sales in July. The impact of the decline in sales of new energy vehicles in July is expected to improve in September. Sales of new energy vehicles are lower than expected, and demand in the cobalt market is lower than expected, which brings risks to the rise of cobalt prices.

2, 5G mobile phones bring growth?

According to the Chinese Quality Certification Center, eight 5G mobile phones have been certified by the 3C China Quality Certification Center. Major manufacturers have also released their own 5G mobile phones. The market is generally bullish on 5G products. Sales are expected to surge and demand for cobalt is expected to surge in the future. But we should also note that Gartner expects global smartphone sales to fall by 2.5% in 2019, the biggest decline so far. By 2020, 5G mobile phones will account for 6% of total mobile phone sales. It is very difficult for 5G products to break out in the short term, and there are still uncertainties about when they will break out and whether sales will meet expectations.

Generally speaking, future demand is generally bullish. It is difficult to determine when and how much it will rise. Future demand in cobalt market is full of uncertainty.

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Future prospects:

Bai Jiaxin, a data analyst with business associations, believes that the news of Jianeng Cobalt Mine’s shutdown will inevitably lead to a rise in cobalt prices, and cobalt prices will still rise in the future. However, several risks should be noted: first, whether Jianeng can implement the shutdown as scheduled, and whether other cobalt miners will increase production to make up for the shortage after the shutdown; second, the sale of new energy vehicles; The volume of new energy automobiles in the future declines, and the sales of new energy automobiles in the future are not as good as expected. With the acceleration of cobalt removal from batteries, the demand for new energy automobiles in the future can meet the expectations. When the third and fifth G products will erupt is uncertain and full of uncertainties, we can not expect too high.

Taking into account the risks, we can also see that the main reason for the discontinuation of Jianeng cobalt production is that the cobalt price is lower than the mining cost, the cobalt price is below the break-even point, and the future cobalt price may be maintained at a higher price to ensure the normal production of cobalt ore. The future cobalt price of 200,000 yuan/ton may become history, and the market cobalt price is expected to remain around 300,000 yuan/ton.

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The market price of R134a refrigerant fell slightly this week (7.29-8.2)

Price Trend

According to a large number of data monitored by business associations, domestic R 134a factory price slightly declined this week, with the price at the end of the week (8.02) at 28166.67 yuan/ton, down 0.59% from the price at the beginning of the week (7.29) at 28333.33 yuan/ton, and down 3.98% compared with the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: At present, domestic refrigerant R134a downstream demand is weak, the market is weak and stable. The refrigerant market has been slightly depressed this year, with a low price stalemate and a low peak season. The anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market of raw materials is weak, and the on-site transaction is light, which weakens the cost support of refrigerant R134a. Refrigerant R134a downstream manufacturers production has declined, the demand for refrigerant R134a has decreased or not increased. At present, refrigerant R134a is mainly for after-sales market. Refrigerant R134a manufacturers start low, and inventory is low. The peak season for refrigerants has passed, and demand has declined even more. The price of basic raw materials for fluorine chemical industry has fallen, and the cost is difficult to support. The cost side of refrigerant is insufficient to support, which makes it unfavorable. According to data monitoring from business associations, as of August 02, the price of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. was 27500 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. was 27 000 yuan/ton, Shandong Yue’an New Materials Co., Ltd. was 30 000 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Lengwang Technology Co., Ltd. was 27 000 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu Blue Planet Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd was 27 000 yuan/ton. The price of Limited Company is 30,000 yuan/ton. Hunan Longxun Trading Co., Ltd. is priced at 25500 yuan per ton.

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Industry chain: The upstream product anhydrous hydrofluoric acid market declined slightly, with the price of 11 610 yuan/ton at the end of the week (8.05), down 3.25% from 12 000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week (7.29), and up 5.23% from the same period last year. Enterprises reflect that the current on-site hydrofluoric acid spot supply is sufficient, the recent on-site shopping situation is general, the price has declined, and the support for refrigerant R134 is weak.

Demand for refrigerants downstream is weak, the peak season is weak, production of air conditioners, automobiles and refrigerators is declining, refrigerants just need to shrink, and after-sales is not improving. Refrigerant R134a is in a difficult situation, and the phenomenon of Profit-giving of enterprises is obvious.

3. Future Market Forecast

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Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that the current peak season of refrigerant R134a has passed, demand continues to decline, and R134a operates at a low level. However, due to the falling cost of raw materials hydrofluoric acid, the cost of refrigerants is insufficient to support, and the market situation of oversupply is difficult to change. Generally speaking, the aftermarket refrigeration R134a is mainly low shock.

Domestic methanol market declined broadly in July

Price Trend

In July 2019, the domestic methanol market declined broadly. According to the price monitoring of business associations, the average domestic methanol price was 2178 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 1970 yuan/ton at the end of the month. The average domestic methanol price dropped by 9.55% in the month, and the price fell by 29.49% compared with the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic methanol market continued to decline in July, with some markets touching the low point from the beginning of 2016 to the present, and most of the mainland markets fell below 2000 yuan/ton. The industry is pessimistic because of the concentrated release of bad news such as increased import arrivals and weak downstream demand. Towards the end of the month, local markets stopped falling and rebounded. In terms of new domestic methanol to olefins, the 600,000 tons/year MTO plant in Jiutai, Inner Mongolia, was temporarily shut down for 3-5 days on the 21st day; the 600,000 tons/year MTO plant in Chengzhi Phase II, Nanjing, was commissioned at the end of June; and the 1.8 million tons/year MTO plant in Zhongan Union produced MTO-grade methanol on July 11, and MTO plant was subsequently put into operation.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: This month, the formaldehyde Market as a whole is running lower. The upstream methanol market continued to decline this month, many markets have fallen to new historical lows, the cost is difficult to support the formaldehyde market, coupled with environmental impact, the formaldehyde market started unstable, the overall start-up reduced, the downstream market in the later part of this month is a large-scale shutdown, the overall turnover is light, formaldehyde enterprises inventory pressure increased, big. Some enterprises offer downward. Dimethyl ether: In July, the market price of dimethyl ether fluctuated and changed obviously. In the first ten days, the price trend is regionalized, but in general, most of the terminal demand remains sluggish under the influence of the traditional “off-season”. Henan Yima, Xinlianxin and other leading enterprises maintain high-load production, the northern market supply is saturated, downstream and traders have a strong wait-and-see mentality. After the “Yima Gasification Plant” incident in mid-July, all four enterprises under the Coal Chemical Company stopped, and the starting rate of domestic dimethyl ether enterprises dropped to 17.66%, which was 3.84% lower than that at the beginning of the month. This led to a sharp rise in prices and a continuous rise in prices. Acetic acid: This month, the domestic acetic acid market ushered in a turning point. As the current market is in the traditional off-season, leading to the beginning of the month, all parties in the market for acetic acid fell significantly, a large number of signatures belong to the empty list state, and the overall start-up of domestic acetic acid plant high, the market supply continues to increase, aggravating the industry’s bullish attitude, acetic acid Market Trading slowly in the stable weak market.

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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in July 2019, there were 7 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 25% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the top three commodities were MTBE (12.29%), diesel (8.34%) and gasoline (8.07%). There are 9 kinds of commodities falling annually, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5% accounted for 12.5% of the monitored commodities in the plate. The products of the first three declines were methanol (-9.55%), petroleum coke (-6.15%) and Brent crude oil (-2.75%). This month’s average rise and fall was 0.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Viewpoint: On the positive side, the installations overhauled in August include Xianyang Chemistry, Guotai Ordos, Baogang Inner Mongolia and Shenhua Ning Coal Phase II projects; the demand for methanol is expected to increase in August during the orderly construction of new MTO installations; the profit of products such as formaldehyde, dimethyl ether and MTO will be affected by the continued low price of methanol. It’s obviously getting better. On the negative side, the domestic methanol industry started to maintain a high level as a whole. In August, imports were estimated to be around 850,000 tons, and the market supply was abundant. Safety and environmental protection inspections continued to be rigorous, and local market terminal enterprises were affected by production reduction or parking, which was not conducive to methanol consumption. Some domestic MTO enterprises requiring external purchases of methanol had maintenance plans, such as Shenghong, Jiangsu Province. Shenhua Yulin and other enterprises. The current situation of excessive supply and demand of methanol is the main reason that leads to the continuous decline of the market and approaching the methanol production line. The continuous stringent national environmental protection and safety supervision is the main logic leading to the reduction of traditional downstream demand. With the approaching of the 70th anniversary of National Day, environmental protection and safety supervision is not likely to relax. Analysts suggest that focusing on whether there is a reduction in supply and changes in trade sentiment are factors that have reversed the situation, focusing on the start-up of natural gas-to-methanol and coal-to-methanol plants.

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