Rise and fall of butadiene price in 2021

In 2021, the domestic butadiene market experienced three complete “first decline and then rise” and a long-term sharp decline, and the overall decline ended. Prices can be described as high “stimulus” and falling “outrageous”. The overall market is heavily affected by supply and demand. At the same time, external factors also play a considerable role. According to the price monitored by business society, the average price of domestic butadiene producers fell from 7715 yuan / ton on January 1 to 4451 yuan / ton on December 31, with an overall price decrease of 42.57%. The highest price level appeared at the beginning of the third quarter, which was 11482 yuan / ton on July 20, and the lowest point appeared at 4451 yuan / ton on December 31 at the end of the year, with the maximum amplitude of 61.23% in the whole year.

 

In the first quarter of 2021, the butadiene market rebounded after the first decline, and the price increase was small, but the overall fluctuation was obvious. It increased from 7751 yuan / ton on January 1 to 7860 yuan / ton on March 31, with an overall increase of 1.40%, and the maximum amplitude in the quarter was 39.07%.

 

In January, due to the relatively abundant supply of goods in the domestic market and the temporary shutdown of rubber devices in East China, the price support at the supply side was relatively weak, and the price negotiation range continued to move down. With the gradual decline of prices and the approaching Spring Festival holiday, some downstream bargain hunting have been replenished. Under the relatively low price of butadiene, manufacturers’ enthusiasm for taking goods has increased. At the same time, domestic butadiene units have entered the maintenance state since March of the year, and the maintenance expectation has also boosted the mentality of the industry. During the Spring Festival holiday, the overall commencement of downstream industries was significantly higher than that in the same period last year, and the demand side also had strong support for prices. After the festival, due to the continuous rise in the prices of related products, the driving force on the price of butadiene was relatively obvious, and the overall market price remained relatively high in March. However, since late March, with the unexpected shutdown of rubber plants in South China and the export of some Sinopec goods, the spot circulation in the market has increased, the supply side’s support for the price has weakened significantly, and the price has turned downward.

 

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Butadiene rebounded after the second price drop in the second and third quarters of 2021, but the price fluctuated greatly this time. The overall price decreased narrowly but rebounded sharply. According to the monitoring price of business society, the average price of domestic butadiene manufacturers increased from 8441 yuan / ton on March 20 to 11312 yuan / ton on July 30, with an obvious increase and a long rise time, with an overall increase of 34.01% and a maximum amplitude of 76.44%.

 

After the slight rise in the domestic butadiene market in April, the shock weakened, and the overall negotiation atmosphere in the market was slightly general. Mainly due to the unplanned shutdown of some units and the shutdown of some oxidation dehydrogenation units under the cost pressure in April, the spot circulation in the market decreased to a certain extent, and the supply side strengthened the price support. In addition, some sources in East China were anxious about the tank capacity during the month, and the selling price was slightly low, which also dragged the market upward, and the shock weakened after the market rose slightly. Since May, some early-stage parking devices have been started one after another, but the actual export products are limited, and the supply side has strengthened its price support. In addition, the month’s internal and external market trend continued to be strong, and some traders in East China had limited intention to lower prices under the support of costs, which also supported the market upward. Since June, most manufacturers in the north have no obvious inventory pressure. Supported by the strong trend of the external market in East China, traders’ enthusiasm for export arbitrage has increased, and the supply of goods gives priority to export.

 

In late July, although the external price was strong, due to the typhoon, the shipment of some domestic export sources was delayed, and there were many short-term shutdown of downstream devices, resulting in weak market demand. The short-term market expectation is short. With the weakening of downstream inquiry intention, the focus of spot price continues to decline.

 

From the end of July to the end of the year, the domestic butadiene market fell unilaterally. Although there was a slight recovery in mid October, the overall market remained depressed and sorted out. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average price of domestic butadiene producers fell from 11482 yuan / ton on July 22 to 4451 yuan / ton on December 31, down 61.23%.

 

In August, with the launch of new production capacity and the planned restart of some units, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market was widened to a certain extent. Some northeast enterprises recently resumed competitive sales, and the social supply of goods increased significantly. In addition, the start-up of synthetic rubber industry has decreased and the cost side is under pressure, which affects the supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene and is difficult to find a significant positive boost. Although the external price performance was strong, affected by the typhoon, the shipment of some domestic export sources was delayed, and there was no lack of short-term shutdown of downstream devices, and the market demand performance was weak. In September, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline. Fushun Petrochemical and Liaoning Huajin, the major manufacturers in Northeast China who have been overhauled for many days, began to resume supply this month, forming a “heavy blow” to the already depressed market. Near the end of September, the external price fell sharply, and the domestic market fell accordingly. At the end of September, the market atmosphere recovered slightly due to the preparation before the festival.

 

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At the beginning of October, the butadiene market continued the downturn in September. With the rise of the external market, domestic traders actively speculated, and major production enterprises such as Sinopec raised the ex factory quotation for many times. In October, the butadiene market “hit the bottom and rebounded”, reversing the decline since the end of July 2021 and showing a narrow rise. After a short sharp rise in the market, the butadiene market was like a “flash in the pan”, which was fleeting, and the price ladder fell. Insiders have said that the recent market “can’t understand” and “can’t guess”. Throughout November, the domestic butadiene market fell unilaterally and deeply. Both the external market and the domestic market atmosphere are relatively depressed. Coupled with the restart of some enterprises’ devices, the market supply increases. However, the downstream demand is mainly rigid demand, which is not significantly good in the short term. The trading atmosphere is depressed. Most people in the industry are bearish on the future market, and the butadiene market is not optimistic. In December, the domestic butadiene market fell in the first half of the month, then the decline stopped and entered the consolidation stage. Finally, the decline ended with the reduction of Sinopec’s price. The main reason is the drag of the external market and the sufficient supply of goods in the domestic market, resulting in the continuous decline of prices.

 

The overall market price focus of butadiene in 2021 has rebounded compared with last year. The annual market price change is mainly caused by the combined action of supply and demand fundamentals and other factors, in which supply and demand fundamentals are the main driving factor affecting the annual price change. During the year, due to the centralized maintenance of some butadiene units and the rapid growth of export volume, the phased spot resources were tight and the price rose significantly. After the price rose to a high point, as the downstream cost was under pressure, it was difficult to continuously follow up the high price of butadiene, some downstream manufacturers reduced their negative production, and the demand side’s support for the price weakened; At the same time, in the second half of the year, some new butadiene production capacity continued to release, the market supply was abundant, the supply side was difficult to support the price, and the price continued to decline. In addition, public health events, extreme weather and other factors also have phased effects on the production, logistics and transportation of butadiene and its downstream devices.

 

In 2021, the annual new capacity of butadiene in China was about 580000 tons / year. By the end of 2021, the cumulative total capacity had reached 5.45 million tons / year, an increase of 11.9% over 2020. In 2022, the butadiene production capacity is still in the period of rapid expansion, but the downstream adiponitrile and ABS industries have certain incremental expectations in the second and third quarters, and the market may be boosted by better demand, but the market supply pressure is also gradually emerging. Under the supply pressure, the mainstream shock range of butadiene market is relatively low.

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Caustic soda prices rose slightly this week (1.10-1.17)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of caustic soda was adjusted and operated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price in Shandong market was 942.5 yuan / ton. On January 17, the average price in Shandong market was about 957.5 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.59% and a price increase of 98.45% over the same period last year. On January 17, the caustic soda commodity index was 137.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 48.10% from the highest point 265.47 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 111.60% from the lowest point 65.11 on October 9, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The price of caustic soda is stable and small this week. At present, the mainstream ex factory price of 32% alkali in Shandong is about 880-980 yuan / ton. The mainstream ex factory quotation of 32% liquid alkali in Hebei is about 950-1030 yuan / ton. Recently, caustic soda manufacturers have overhauled, but the overall impact is small. Downstream alumina enterprises mainly purchase on demand because the Spring Festival is approaching. Caustic soda manufacturers intend to raise prices before the Spring Festival, but the driving force is not strong.

 

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According to the price monitoring of business society, in the list of price rise and fall of chlor alkali industry in the second week of 2022 (1.10-1.14), there were 1 kind of rising commodity, 3 kinds of falling commodities and 1 kind of rising and falling commodity. The main commodities rising were: caustic soda (1.59%); The main commodities falling were PVC (- 0.60%), light soda ash (- 0.56%) and calcium carbide (- 0.36%). Both rose or fell by 0.01% this week.

 

Business analysts believe that recently, the overall operation of caustic soda manufacturers has remained stable, and the operating rate has not changed much. The downstream alumina enterprises still mainly purchase on demand, and the Spring Festival is approaching, and there are production reduction expectations. It is expected that the subsequent weak operation of caustic soda is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

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Cost and demand drive the price of polybutadiene rubber to fluctuate higher in 2021

In 2021, the market of butadiene rubber fluctuated and rose. According to the monitoring of business society, the low price was 10490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and the high price was 16120 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an amplitude of 53.67%; The price at the end of the year was 14290 yuan / ton, an increase of 34.30% over the beginning of the year.

 

From the beginning of the year to the end of March, the price of polybutadiene rubber rose from 10640 yuan / ton on January 1 to 13575 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 27.58%. There are three main reasons: first, the demand for recovery in the downstream after the epidemic increased rapidly; Secondly, the “extremely cold weather” in the United States has pushed up the price of crude oil and brought a tide of rising prices of global commodities; Finally, the unexpected shutdown of Yangzi and Maoming Petrochemical Shunding units further tightened the supply side; The three factors jointly promoted the sharp rise in the price of polybutadiene rubber from the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter.

 

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Since the end of March, on the one hand, affected by the re outbreak of the epidemic in foreign countries, foreign automobile and tire factories have been closed and shut down more, affecting tire exports and weakening rubber demand; On the other hand, the raw material butadiene fell sharply in March and April, dragging the cost side; The attack from upstream and downstream and the sharp decline in the price of natural rubber jointly dragged polybutadiene rubber out of a wave of decline from April to June. The price fell from 13575 yuan / ton to 11910 yuan / ton on June 10, down 12.27%.

 

6. In July, the international crude oil price continued to rise. The main contract price of WTI reached 75.23 yuan / ton on July 2, driving the raw material butadiene to reach the annual high of 11482 yuan / ton on July 20. The cost formed a strong support for cis-polybutadiene rubber. The price of cis-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply from June to July, from 11910 yuan / ton to 14690 yuan / ton on July 19, an increase of 23.34%.

 

From July to September, the operating rate of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber was higher than that in the first half of the year, and the supply was mainly loose. In addition, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, which once again formed a great negative on the cost side; In addition, the novel coronavirus pneumonia was diagnosed as a new global variant in August. The new variant strain of the delta brought shadow to the commodity market. The market of butadiene rubber dropped again, and the price dropped from 14690 yuan / ton to 13000 yuan / ton in September 21st, or 11.50%. 200 million.

 

The domestic policy of “dual control of energy efficiency” was launched in September. Affected by the policy, the supply of polybutadiene rubber tightened. In addition, the world began to fall into an “energy crisis” in October, and the international crude oil price soared again. On October 27, the main contract of WTI crude oil soared to US $84.65/barrel. Under the influence of both cost and supply factors, Polybutadiene rubber formed an “m” double roof at 15380 yuan / ton on October 22 and 16120 yuan / ton on December 1. After that, due to the difficulty of keeping up with the demand, polybutadiene rubber finally fell back to around 14290 yuan / ton at the end of the year.

 

In 2021, the price of raw butadiene rose and fell sharply, and the cost side was supported in the early stage and dragged down in the later stage. From the price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber, after the price comparison between the two reached the same in June in the first half of the year, the trend difference in the second half of the year gradually expanded, and the trend of butadiene rubber in the second half of the year is basically not subject to cost constraints.

 

In 2021, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply at the beginning of the year, and mainly fluctuated slightly in the later stage. The large rise of natural rubber in the early stage boosted cis-polybutadiene rubber. In the later stage, when the supply and demand side of natural rubber weakened slightly, the trend showed a small fluctuation, and the impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber weakened.

 

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In 2021, after COVID-19′s rapid economic recovery and monetary easing, the price of butadiene rubber hit a three year high.

In 2021, the monthly tire output was high before and low after, and the rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber in the first half of the year was mainly driven by strong demand; The second half of the year was mainly affected by cost, policy and supply.

 

Future forecast: business analysts believe that, first, it is difficult for the international crude oil price to decline in the short term, coupled with the rebound of butadiene, the cost support will strengthen in the short term; In the long term novel coronavirus pneumonia is being developed, once the drug is contained, the epidemic control will be relaxed again. The global economy will recover strongly, and the demand will be better throughout the year. In addition, under inflationary pressure, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the monetary tightening will bring some negative fluctuations to the market, so we need to be vigilant. Overall, the butadiene rubber market will continue to rebound slightly in the first quarter of 2022, and will continue to fluctuate and rise in the later period.

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The sharp drop in raw materials in the first half of the month did not cause a sharp adjustment in the polyacrylamide market

Commodity index: on January 15, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 105.09, down 0.18 points from yesterday, down 5.76% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 26.78% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

 

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Commodity market: data monitoring shows that in the first half of the month, the domestic market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China still maintained a slight downward trend. The mainstream market price was about 17342.86 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 17200 yuan / ton on the 15th, with a range of 0.82%. At present, the epidemic situation is severe and the Spring Festival is approaching. More enterprises stopped production before the year, with sufficient inventory, general demand and weak transaction; Different enterprises have different prices due to the impact of inventory. Some enterprises have tight inventory recently after they stopped production years ago, and their prices have increased to a certain extent.

 

Industrial chain: acrylic acid: in the first half of the month, the market price in East China increased by 3.28% from 13200 yuan / ton to 13633.33 yuan / ton; The acrylic acid market is steadily rising this week. Recently, the price of raw propylene is relatively strong, the cost support is rising, the unit load of some factories is reduced, the market supply is reduced, the downstream is orderly prepared, and the market negotiation focus is high. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will mainly operate at a high level in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance. Acrylonitrile: Since New Year’s day, the mainstream market of raw acrylonitrile has fallen every day. In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile has been significantly reduced by about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream market quotation has fallen to about 11450 yuan / ton. In conclusion, recently, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials continues to decline sharply, the support continues to weaken rapidly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream procurement is strong.

 

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LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and decreased in the first half of the month. The average domestic price was 4710 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4610 yuan / ton on January 15, down 2.12%. The domestic liquid market has changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price has also continued to decline. The decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of the early maintenance liquid plant and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, and many fell back below 5000 yuan, and the market focus moved down rapidly. The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is weak. Although the raw material gas flow auction boosts the market, the decline of domestic liquid price slows down or rises slightly, it is difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

 

Future forecast: the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 2000 yuan / ton so far this month; The price of raw material acrylic acid is still weak and rising, and the market trading is dominated by rigid demand; The cost fell sharply and the support of polyacrylamide market continued to weaken. Although more enterprises have stopped production due to the impact of the epidemic and spring break, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and the trading continues to be weak. On the whole, according to different inventory conditions, some enterprises have insufficient inventory and the price increases accordingly; Under the dual influence of industrial chain cost transmission and weak downstream procurement, the prices of some enterprises will be stable and lower before the year in order to withdraw funds; Secondly, the logistics cost will increase the commodity cost to a certain extent due to the impact of the epidemic and the Spring Festival. It is reported that the range in Henan is nearly 20%, and the future market of polyacrylamide will rise due to this impact.

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The DMF market is strong this week

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 14, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 16200.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price fluctuated upward this week, up 1.89% compared with the same period last week. In the short term, the DMF trend is stable, medium and strong.

 

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This week, the DMF market is rising in a narrow range, the price is dominant, and the focus of negotiation is high. Compared with the same period last week, the price increases by 1.89%. At present, the manufacturer has positive shipments, general inventory, stable operating rate, no pressure on inventory, and just needs to purchase in the downstream.

 

The overall upstream methanol market is mainly stable. The negotiated intended price of methanol in southern Shandong is about 2520 yuan / ton. The factory provides cash exchange. Linyi receives local goods for negotiation. The intended price is about 2520 yuan / ton and is sent to cash exchange. There is little offer for logistics goods. The trading atmosphere was average. The methanol market in central Shandong is negotiated to be delivered to spot exchange at 2280-2300 yuan / ton.

 

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On January 13, the chemical index was 1107 points, up 6 points from yesterday, down 20.93% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 85.12% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

 

DMF analysts of business agency believe that the trend of DMF is stable and strong in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

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The market price of isopropanol was basically stable this week (1.6-1.13)

1、 Price trend

 

According to commodity data monitoring, the domestic isopropanol market price fluctuated this week. The price of isopropanol increased tentatively in the middle of the week. After the shock, the price at the weekend was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with an average price of 7166.67 yuan / ton.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from November to January

 

The market price of isopropanol was mainly stable this week. The overall market trading atmosphere is general, the Spring Festival is approaching, and traders mainly wait and see. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 6900-7100 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7300 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7100 yuan / ton. Internationally, on January 11, the U.S. isopropanol closed stable, and the European isopropanol market closed with a downward focus.

 

In terms of raw acetone, the market price of acetone was basically stable this week. The trading atmosphere is relatively flat, the enterprise’s production is stable, the inventory is in the middle, and the delivery of goods remains stable. According to the commodity data monitoring, the average price of acetone this week was 5450 yuan / ton. The business club expects the short-term acetone market range to be adjusted with limited fluctuation.

 

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In terms of raw propylene, the price of propylene stopped falling and rebounded this week. So far, the quotation of propylene in Shandong market is 7800-7900 yuan / ton. From the market point of view, the delivery of goods by enterprises is stable, the inventory is OK, and the downstream demand is mainly just needed. Near the Spring Festival, some downstream factories have parking plans, and the market trading has not decreased significantly for the time being.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that at present, the export orders of domestic factories are mainly, the inventory is low, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is general. The price of acetone was relatively stable, the price of propylene stopped falling and rebounded, and the support of raw materials for isopropanol was acceptable. The price of isopropanol is expected to be stable in the short term.

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The supply increases and the price of n-propanol decreases

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of January 12, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8466 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 9 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8733 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 267 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.05%. Compared with the price on January 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8883 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 417 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.69%.

 

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This week, the domestic n-propanol market showed a downward trend. The n-propanol plant of Shandong Dachang was put into operation, and the on-site supply of n-propanol increased. Since the end of last week, the domestic n-propanol market has fluctuated. This week, with the increase of on-site supply, the downstream demand of n-propanol is still dominated by rigid demand, and the effective support on the site is insufficient. The market price of Shandong Dachang n-propanol began to decrease gradually at the beginning of this week (10th). At present, as of 12th, The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8000-8300 yuan / ton, the low-end price is 7900 yuan / ton, the market situation of n-propanol in Nanjing is temporarily stable, the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9200 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is 9500 yuan / ton. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the propanol market is general, and the downstream demand side is calm. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

 

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In terms of upstream ethylene, on January 11, the Asian ethylene market quoted CFR Northeast Asia at USD 971-981 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia at USD 961-971 / ton. On January 11, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1564-1575 / ton, up US $2 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1448-1457 / ton, up US $7 / ton. On January 11, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $915-933 / ton, up US $15 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general.

 

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

 

At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream has started to prepare goods one after another, and the downstream demand for n-propanol may rise in stages. Therefore, the analysts of business society think that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will stop falling and stabilize, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

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The price of dimethyl carbonate increased by 3.05% after the festival due to tight supply

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 11, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1, 2022 (the reference price is 8733 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 267 yuan / ton, or 3.05%.

 

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From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole operated steadily upward. After the new year’s Day holiday, on the 4th and 5th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was steadily sorted and operated, the on-site inventory was low, the spot supply pressure was small, and the downstream demand performed well. With the support of both supply and demand, on the 6th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate ex factory price increased steadily by 100-200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate exceeded 8800 yuan / ton, Subsequently, the dimethyl carbonate market continued to operate high and stable, the factory offer was firm, and the low price in the floor gradually decreased. On the 11th, with the support of tight spot supply, the transaction focus of dimethyl carbonate moved upward again. The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was near 8800-9200 yuan / ton, and the average price was 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with before the festival, the cumulative increase after the festival exceeded 3%.

 

In terms of index, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index on January 10 was 156.47, the same as yesterday, down 37.41% from the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 56.47% from the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from June 1, 2021 to now)

 

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In the upstream propylene oxide Market, the recent (1.4-1.10) propylene oxide market price rose first and then stabilized. After the new year’s Day holiday, the price of raw propylene rose steadily, the cost support gradually increased, the downstream orders were released, the factory shipment improved, the inventory pressure was reduced, and the focus of market negotiation gradually increased. Near the weekend, the inventory was low, which supported the manufacturer’s mentality and supported the price offer. However, the demand end performance was cold, the market price was frozen and sorted out, and the operation was stable temporarily, On the 10th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10700-10800 yuan / ton.

 

Future trend analysis

 

At present, the supply of dimethyl carbonate continues to be tight, the downstream continues the demand for goods preparation, and the on-site trading is acceptable. Analysts of dimethyl carbonate in business society believe that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will be stable and strong, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

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Domestic isobutyraldehyde prices rose 47.95% (1.1-1.7) this week

1、 Price trend

 

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As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 9733.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 14400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, up 4666.67 yuan / ton, or 47.95%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 14000 yuan / ton, an increase of 4800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 13800 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 15400 yuan / ton this weekend, up 5400 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

 

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From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7548.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7850.80 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.00%, an increase of 7.21% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials increased slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply, and the quotation increased from 13333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 16020.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 20.15%. The market of neopentyl glycol rose sharply and the spot market was tight, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late January may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market rose sharply, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

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Downstream wait-and-see, yellow phosphorus prices fell sharply this week (1.4-1.7)

1、 Price trend

 

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 40666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 34333.33 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 15.57% during the week.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is strong. The transaction in the yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward, and the inquiry is general. It is mainly just needed and can be used as needed. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 34000-35000 yuan / ton.

 

In terms of phosphate rock, after the new year’s Day holiday, the domestic phosphate rock market mainly operates stably, and the average market price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is 690 yuan / ton. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the supply of phosphate rock is mainly contract old customers, and the external quotation of enterprises mostly holds the early price. The phosphate rock analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to consolidate at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

 

In terms of coke and coking coal, the market has been stable and good in the near future. Recently, the production of coal mines has been reduced more by various factors, the supply of coking coal has been tightened, and some coal types have rebounded slightly. Recently, the downstream coke procurement is good and the demand support is strong. In terms of the coke market, after the first round of increase landed, some enterprises in the main production areas of Shanxi, Shandong and other places opened the second round of increase of 200 yuan / ton. The coke market is improving, and the coking enterprises have a positive attitude. At present, the inventory in the plant is low, and the start-up is still low affected by production restriction. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel mills remains unchanged, the expectation of resumption of production continues to increase, and most of them actively replenish the warehouse. Under the environment of tight supply and acceptable demand, the coke market is stable, medium and strong as a whole.

 

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In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid tilts downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 11466.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 11166.67 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 2.62% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, the cost support is gradually weakened, the space elasticity of adjustable prices is increased, and the market price has declined. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to decline in the short term.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that the price of yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the downstream is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus. There is more wait-and-see in the field, mainly sporadic procurement in the downstream, and the market transaction is weak and downward. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.

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