According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, domestic polyester filament prices fluctuated narrowly from July 15th to 21st. Currently, mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at 8030 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 9300-9500 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 8546 yuan/ton. During the week, the cost support of the polyester filament market gradually weakened, and there was a clear wait-and-see attitude in the market. The demand side was in the off-season, with average trading and stable quotes from polyester filament factories.

As of the close of July 18th in the crude oil market, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $82.82 per barrel, a decrease of 0.04%; The London Brent crude oil futures price for September delivery closed at $85.11 per barrel, an increase of 0.04%.

In terms of PTA, PTA prices have fallen this week, and currently the mainstream PTA quotation is around 5800-5900 yuan/ton for self pickup. As the operating rate rebounds and PTA fundamentals decline, it is expected that prices will remain volatile next week.

In terms of ethylene glycol, the price of ethylene glycol fluctuated this week, and the mainstream quotation is currently around 4600-4700 yuan. At present, the fundamentals of the ethylene glycol market are good, and prices may be strong in the future.

In terms of polyester filament, currently, the market generally adopts a wait-and-see attitude, and the industry’s procurement activities appear to be more cautious, resulting in a slight decrease in downstream demand and terminal production load while maintaining stability. This trend has exacerbated the inventory backlog problem of major polyester filament producers, while the weak performance of the raw material market has also created additional pressure.

Business analysts believe that PTA fundamentals are weakening. The scorching summer heat has led to an increase in production cuts and a decrease in demand for polyester filament, which has significantly weakened the market demand for polyester filament. In the short term, although mainstream polyester fiber manufacturers still adhere to a high price stance and show a strong willingness to maintain prices, all parties have adopted a more cautious wait-and-see attitude in the price game with downstream markets. Based on this, it is expected that the price of polyester filament will fluctuate within a relatively stable range in the future, and the market trend will show a characteristic of oscillating operation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from July 15th to 19th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 9042 yuan/ton to 9000 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.47% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 18.92%. The domestic BDO market is weak and deadlocked, approaching the settlement cycle, with a mainly cautious and wait-and-see attitude. Follow up on urgent orders downstream of the terminal, the game between supply and demand continues, and the market trading center is deadlocked.

On the supply side and in terms of equipment: The overall increase in market supply is limited, but the supply side support is still acceptable, and the supplier’s intention to maintain prices continues. The supply side of BDO is affected by favorable factors.

On the cost side, raw material calcium carbide: the operating rate has decreased narrowly, and overall supply has remained stable. However, the export of downstream maintenance and supporting calcium carbide has intensified market observation, and calcium carbide enterprises are showing high enthusiasm for raising prices. Raw material methanol: The methanol market is experiencing weak consolidation. As of 3:00 pm on July 19th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2500 yuan/ton. The cost impact of BDO is mixed.

On the demand side, the main downstream PTMEG and GBL/NMP industries have experienced a decline in production, and the utilization rate of other downstream production capacity is average, continuing to follow the pace of rigid demand. The transmission of industrial chain costs is not smooth, with multi-dimensional contract orders trading and light spot negotiations. The demand side of BDO is affected by bearish factors.

In the future market forecast, the supply of goods will continue to increase, and the support from the supply side will weaken. However, in the situation where factories are operating at a low profit or loss, the supplier’s intention to maintain prices will continue. The actual demand downstream of the terminal follows lightly, and the transmission of industry chain costs is not smooth, resulting in strong bargaining sentiment when entering the market. Business analyst BDO predicts that the domestic BDO market will mainly operate weakly.

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with an average market price of 3000 yuan/ton from the beginning of the week to the weekend, an increase of 6.02% compared to the same period last year. On July 11th, the chemical index was 886 points, unchanged from yesterday, a decrease of 36.71% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 48.16% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)

Upstream caustic soda

According to the commodity analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has increased. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in Shandong was around 814 yuan/ton, and over the weekend it was 816 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.25% and a year-on-year increase of 4.62%. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region has slightly increased, with the mainstream market price of 32% ion exchange membrane alkali ranging from 790 to 860 yuan/ton, and most enterprises raising it by 10-20 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Jiangsu region is around 860-940 yuan/ton.

Business Society analysts believe that the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week, with traders actively shipping. However, downstream alumina is mostly purchased on demand, and the overall supply-demand game suggests that caustic soda prices may maintain a consolidating trend in the short term, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the analysis system of the commodity market of Shengyishe, the price of bromine is in a weak trend. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 22660 yuan/ton. On July 9th, the average market price was 20900 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.77% and an increase of 14.84% compared to the same period last year. On July 8th, the bromine commodity index was 74.04, a decrease of 1.4 points from yesterday, a decrease of 69.80% from the highest point in the cycle of 245.18 points (2021-10-27), and an increase of 25.66% from the lowest point of 58.92 points on October 29th, 2014. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from September 1st, 2011 to present)

2、 Market analysis

In early July, the price of bromine was weak, and currently the mainstream market price in Shandong is around 20000-21000 yuan/ton. In terms of supply, various bromine manufacturers are currently operating normally, producing seawater bromine in large quantities. Imported bromine has gradually arrived at the port, increasing bromine production and impacting the domestic market. The production of downstream flame retardants for bromine is average, and the industry is operating weakly. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. In terms of raw materials, domestic sulfur prices have risen, with an average market price of 1206.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and an average market price of 1293.33 yuan/ton over the weekend, with a price increase of 7.18%, an increase of 77.77% compared to the same period last year. Downstream procurement is mainly based on demand.

It is predicted that the price of bromine will be weak in the near future. Although the upstream sulfur price has risen, the downstream flame retardant production of bromine is average, and the industry is operating in a weak market. The demand for agriculture and intermediates is average. The comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that bromine may continue to operate in a weak market in the later stage, depending on the downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyishe, the isopropanol market operated in a volatile manner in June, with a slight increase overall. On June 1st, the average price of isopropanol in China was 8640 yuan/ton, and on June 28th, it was 8660 yuan/ton. The price increased by 0.23% during the month.

The isopropanol market fluctuated in June, with a slight overall increase. In the early days, the price of acetone on raw materials increased, providing good cost support. The isopropanol market followed the rise in raw material acetone prices. The isopropanol market had poor trading in mid month, with a slight downward shift in the center of gravity on the market. In the latter half of the month, the price of acetone fell, and isopropanol also followed its trend. As of now, the majority of isopropanol market quotations in Shandong region are around 8500-8650 yuan/ton; The majority of isopropanol prices in the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are around 8800-8900 yuan/ton.

In terms of import and export, according to customs statistics, the export volume of isopropanol in China in May 2024 was 18525915 kilograms, with an export amount of 19998263 US dollars. From January to May 2024, China’s cumulative export volume of isopropanol was 83674280 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 90135113 US dollars. According to customs statistics, the import volume of isopropanol in China in May 2024 was 1521102 kilograms, with an import amount of 3260762 US dollars. From January to May 2024, the cumulative import volume of isopropanol in China was 14817143 kilograms, with a cumulative amount of 24981188 US dollars.

In terms of raw material acetone, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell in June, with the market price range mainly fluctuating. Overall, the domestic acetone market has weak trading volume. Lihua Yiweiyuan Chemical Co., Ltd. has lowered the ex factory price of acetone products by 200 yuan/ton, and implemented a price of 8100 yuan/ton. This price will be implemented from June 28th. It is expected that the acetone market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term.

In terms of propylene, according to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price increased in June. At the beginning of June, the market average was 6854.6 yuan/ton, with an average price of 7213.25 yuan/ton on June 28th, a monthly increase of 5.23%. In the short term, the inventory of propylene enterprises is still acceptable and overall controllable, with downstream procurement on demand. It is expected that propylene will continue to fluctuate at high levels in the short term.

3、 Future Market Forecast

An isopropanol analyst from the Chemical Branch of Shengyishe believes that in June, the domestic raw material acetone fluctuated and propylene rose, and cost support is still acceptable. However, downstream market demand is limited, and the market has a strong wait-and-see atmosphere. It is expected that in the short term, isopropanol will be more cautious and the market will be mainly weak and volatile.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the spot prices of natural rubber in China have recently narrowed from June 18th to June 24th. As of June 24th, the spot rubber market in China was around 14402 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.04% from 14408 yuan/ton on June 18th, and the highest point in the cycle was 14465 yuan/ton.

On the one hand, the supply of raw materials in the production areas is tight, which provides strong support for the natural rubber market. In the last week of the month, the circulation of imported rubber goods remained tight, and in addition, some areas of the Hainan production area in China were hindered in rubber cutting, resulting in a continuous increase in the purchase prices of raw materials in the production area. At present, the raw material production areas in Thailand and Vietnam are affected by the weather, and the cutting progress is slow. As of June 24th, the price of Thai glue is 73.45 Thai baht/kg, and the price has declined; As of the 24th, the purchase price of state-owned and gold rubber water based concentrated latex raw materials in Hainan production area was around 14500 yuan/ton, and the purchase price of glue based all latex raw materials was around 14200 yuan/ton.

On the other hand, the slow destocking of natural rubber inventory provides certain support for the natural rubber market. As of June 23, 2024, the total inventory of Tianjiao Bonded and General Trade in Qingdao area was 511200 tons, a decrease of 2.76% compared to the previous month. The inventory in the bonded zone was 69900 tons, a decrease of 8.04%; The general trade inventory was 441300 tons, a decrease of 1.87%.

Downstream tire production has slightly increased, with demand supporting the natural rubber market to some extent. Downstream inquiries are resistant to high priced sources, resulting in a high price drop in natural rubber prices. As of June 20th, the operating load of semi steel tires in domestic tire enterprises was around 790%; The operating load of all steel tires for tire enterprises in Shandong region is about 5.8%.

Market forecast: Currently, the supply in some domestic and foreign regions is still relatively low, and the overall raw material prices remain high, supporting the cost of natural rubber; At present, downstream tire companies on the demand side have a slow speed of destocking, and tire companies are cautious in purchasing natural rubber; At present, natural rubber port inventories continue to decline. It is expected that the natural rubber spot market will continue to maintain a high consolidation trend in the short term. In the later stage, with the increase in supply in production areas and the decrease in downstream off-season production, it is expected that the natural rubber market will fall back from a high level.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity analysis system of Business Society, the price of caustic soda has remained stable this week. The average market price from the beginning of the week to the weekend was 796 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.69% compared to the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall domestic caustic soda prices have remained stable this week. The price of caustic soda in Hubei region is temporarily stable, with a mainstream market price of around 970-1050 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is consolidating, with a mainstream market price of around 760-840 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane caustic soda. The domestic price of downstream alumina remains in a narrow consolidation trend, as the delayed increase in alumina content is less than expected, downstream production and supply are stable, and the available spot quantity in the market is limited. Overall, alumina prices are mainly consolidating and operating.

In May 2024, China imported 3024.37 tons of liquid alkali, an increase of 2980.865 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 6851.78%. In May 2024, China’s liquid alkali export volume was 275644.752 tons, an increase of 159554.972 tons compared to the previous month, with a month on month increase of 137.44%.

According to the price monitoring of Business Society, in the 25th week of 2024 (6.17-6.21), there were 0 products that rose, 4 products that fell, and 3 products that rose or fell to 0 on the chlor alkali industry price list. The main commodities falling include PVC (-1.28%), light soda ash (-0.71%), and baking soda (-0.51%). The average increase and decrease this week is -0.43%.

Analysts from Business Society believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating this week. It is expected that the utilization rate of caustic soda production capacity will be around 85.5% this week, and the utilization rate of production capacity may increase. Downstream aluminum oxide is mainly purchased on demand, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may maintain a consolidating operation in the later stage, depending on downstream market demand.

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, as of June 14, 2024, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 9033 yuan/ton. Compared with June 9 (reference price of n-butanol was 9200 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 167 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.81%; Compared with June 1st (reference price of n-butanol at 8366 yuan/ton), the price has increased by 667 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.97%.

From the commodity market analysis system of the Business Society, it can be seen that this week (6.9-6.14), the overall market situation of n-butanol in Shandong, China showed a trend of high-level decline. Starting from June 10th, the center of gravity of the n-butanol market in Shandong began to continuously negotiate towards the low level. As of June 14th, the price of n-butanol in the domestic Shandong market was around 9000-9100 yuan/ton.

Analysis of Factors Influencing the Market of n-butanol

In terms of supply: From mid month to mid month, some of the early shutdown maintenance devices have resumed production, and the overall supply tension in the n-butanol field has eased. The supply volume has gradually increased. Therefore, from the supply side, the market support for n-butanol from the supply side has weakened compared to the previous period.

In terms of demand: Currently, the downstream demand for n-butanol is mainly focused on rigid demand procurement, with some downstream digesting raw materials as the main demand. The support provided by the demand side to the n-butanol market is generally average.

Future analysis

At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol on the market is mild, and the transmission of supply and demand is still acceptable. Although the support provided by the supply and demand side to the market has weakened compared to the previous period, it still has some overall support. The n-butanol data analyst of Business Society predicts that in the short term, the domestic n-butanol market will mostly stabilize and consolidate, and the risk of continuous decline in the market is not high. The specific trend still needs to pay more attention to the changes in news on the supply and demand side.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Business Society, the average market price of caprolactam in China on June 7th was 13552 yuan/ton, which is a decrease of 0.55% compared to the average market price of 13627 yuan/ton on June 3rd.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of caprolactam has fallen this week. The price of raw material pure benzene has decreased, weakening cost support. Downstream procurement is cautious and has a resistance to high prices, resulting in average market trading. As of now, the settlement price of Sinopec caprolactam is 14120 yuan/ton, which is a high-quality liquid product.

Raw material pure benzene market. This week, the price of pure benzene has slightly decreased. On June 3rd, the price of pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton. On Friday (June 7th), the price of pure benzene was 9292 yuan/ton, a 0.09% decrease from last week. This week, the price of Sinopec pure benzene was 9300 yuan/ton.

Downstream PA6 market. The recent PA6 market trend has been stable. The purchasing demand for domestic aggregation plants has weakened, and market trading is average. Terminal stocking is relatively cautious. As of June 7th, the reference price for domestic PA6 is 15100 yuan/ton.

3、 Future Market Forecast

Business Society Caprolactam Analysts believe that the market price of caprolactam has recently decreased. At present, due to insufficient cost support and slowing terminal demand, the market for caprolactam is beginning to decline. It is expected that the market price of caprolactam will be weak in the short term, and consolidation will be the main trend.

1、 Price trend

According to the commodity market analysis system of Business Society, the butyl rubber market has shown a downward trend since May, with a benchmark price of 17860 yuan/ton in early May. As of May 31st, the benchmark price of butyl rubber was 17600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 260 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. A decrease of 1.46%. The price of butyl rubber was lowered in mid May. The cost side has been experiencing a continuous decline in isobutene prices since mid May. The overall trend shows a fluctuating downward trend.

2、 Market analysis

Cost side:

Under the long short game, international crude oil fell in May, reaching a low point in nearly three months. The short-term decline in crude oil prices is a squeezing effect of amplified bearish sentiment on both supply and demand sides. However, the future supply and demand fundamentals do not support the maintenance of low oil prices.

During the cycle, the crude oil market declined, and the isobutene market showed a synchronous downward trend. In early May, the benchmark price of isobutene was 12225 yuan/ton. As of May 28th, the standard price of isobutene was 12025 yuan/ton, a decrease of 200 yuan/ton from the beginning of the month. The downstream demand for isobutylene lacks favorable incentives, and retail shipments are average. In the short term, the domestic isobutene market may continue to be weak.

Supply and demand side:

In April, the import volume of butyl rubber was 18441.999 tons, a decrease of 1613.368 tons from the previous month and a year-on-year decrease of 8.04%. In April, the export volume of butyl rubber was 7820.57 tons, an increase of 526.429 tons compared to the previous month, a year-on-year increase of 6.73%, and a month on month increase of 18.02%. From January to April 2024, China imported a total of 66757.989 tons of butyl rubber, a year-on-year increase of 39.30%. The overall import volume of butyl rubber has increased compared to the same period last year. In mid May, Shandong Jingbo Zhongju’s 50000 ton/year butyl rubber plant was shut down for maintenance. Although Jingbo Zhongju’s domestic supply of goods was tightened during maintenance, imported goods arrived at the port to replenish inventory. At present, the domestic butyl rubber market is relatively loose.

The load rate of the downstream steel tire industry has decreased compared to last month, with the load rate of the entire steel tire industry at around 5.5 floors and the load rate of the semi steel tire industry at around 6.6 floors. Some enterprises in the steel tire industry have stopped for maintenance, resulting in a decrease in demand for raw materials.

3、 Future Market Forecast

In terms of raw materials, the isobutene market is operating weakly, and the cost support for butyl rubber is weakening; In terms of supply and demand, the order performance of the main downstream steel tire industry enterprises was lower than expected, and downstream bearish performance was obvious. They mostly followed up on demand, and market trading was poor. In the future, the cost of butyl rubber is bearish, and the supply-demand game is deadlocked. It is expected that the butyl rubber market will continue to be weak and consolidate in the later period.