Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, as of January 21, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2210 yuan/ton. Overall, the domestic methanol market performance was poor, and the price fell 33.70% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol performance is not good, ports and the mainland are showing a downward trend. Among them, the port period is now maintained linkage, and the recent arrival of ships and cargo is concentrated, the stock accumulation is obvious, based on the general demand-side follow-up, the short-term de-inventory is still facing certain problems; the mainland continues regional trend, at present, methanol plant construction is more than 70%, the market supply is relatively adequate, near the Spring Festival holidays, Enterprises intend to drain warehouses, more profit sales, North China, Shandong decline by 10-50 yuan/ Tons vary, some enterprises can talk about the list.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: raw material finishing is the main, formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been light in recent days, the market has not changed much, part of the construction began to decline. At present, Linyi is around 1080-1100 yuan/ton, Zibo and its surrounding areas are around 1200-1300 yuan/ton. Acetic acid: The domestic market of glacial acetic acid is stable. Downstream stockpiling intention is gradually decreasing and buying intention is cautious. Inventory pressure of enterprises has decreased, and the pressure of individual shipments is slightly obvious. Dimethyl ether: When end-users enter the market for purchasing, the seller actively pushes up, but the end-users’inventory digestion is slow. It is expected that the domestic market for dimethyl ether will increase by a limited margin in a short time.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives: On the positive side, raw materials: in winter heating period, the demand of coal and natural gas market is still acceptable, the price is relatively stable, which provides cost support for methanol; olefins: methanol price is at a low level, and the economic recovery of olefins is still acceptable, pay attention to domestic shutdown MTO picking and restarting operations; freight: winter weather, transportation inconvenience, freight maintenance at a high level. Macroscopic aspect: The State Council further pushed for inclusive tax reduction to reduce the burden of small and micro enterprises. On the negative side, futures: poor performance of futures has a certain impact on the spot market; supply: more than 70% of the equipment has been started, and the market supply is relatively sufficient at present, there is a certain contradiction between supply and demand; port: it is known that the recent arrival of ports is relatively abundant, cargo concentrated in port, stock accumulation; depot: near the end of recent years, depot expectancy, some enterprises will sell profitably; demand side: department: Traditional downstream construction is inadequate, demand continues to weaken, and terminal demand consumption is slow. Methanol analysts at business associations predict that short-term domestic methanol market or narrow-band consolidation will dominate.

Price Trend

On January 16, the propane commodity index was 68.67, down 0.21 points from yesterday, down 43.62% from the peak of 121.80 points in the cycle (2012-03-23), and up 45.30% from the low of 47.26 points on August 7, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

Horizontal adjustment of propane Market in China is dominant, with a small increase in individual and general market turnover. The ex-factory price of propane in Shandong is 4100-4250 yuan/ton. The quotation is the reference price, and the actual price is based on the actual transaction price. Saudi CP in January: $430 per ton of propane, down 15% from last month. Butane is $420/ton, up 5% from last month. The market trend of liquefied petroleum gas is weak, which affects the market mentality. The downstream replenishment is on demand, and the enthusiasm for entering the market is not high. However, propane is still in the peak demand season and the price is relatively strong.

Propane analysts at business associations believe that the current horizontal adjustment of the propane market is dominant and expect to continue consolidation tomorrow.

On October 21, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 119.00, which was the same as yesterday, which was 15.26% lower than the highest point of 140.43 points (2018-02-21) in the cycle, which was 122.06% higher than the lowest point of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. . (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has increased recently. As of the 22nd, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid is 13146.67 yuan/ton, and the domestic hydrofluoric acid operating rate is about 60%. The company reflects the current supply of hydrofluoric acid in the market. Normally, the recent shipments in the market are in good condition, and the ex-factory prices of some enterprises have risen slightly. As of now, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is about 12,500-13,000 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 13,000-13,500 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose, and the supply of spot goods was normal. Due to the recent high price of raw materials, the price of fluorite continued to rise. The price of goods in some areas such as Jiangxi reached a high level of 3,300 yuan / ton, and the price of raw material fluorite rose sharply. It is good for the domestic hydrofluoric acid market, but the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is generally the same, the price of hydrofluoric acid products remains high. The price of some downstream refrigerants has increased, which has certain positive effects on upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the downstream refrigerant market as a whole is still stable, and the R22 refrigerant unit starts at 80%. The R22 market remains strong. The main manufacturer’s factory water supply price rose to 23,000-24,000 yuan / ton, but the production enterprises do not have scattered water spot, mostly in small quantities of steel bottles.

In addition, the market’s actual demand performance is not optimistic, and the shipping pressure is too large. The domestic R134a market price has risen steadily, the production rate of production enterprises is normal, the market keeps the supply and demand market better, and the manufacturers ship mainly by export. However, the transaction price on the floor did not change much, and the merchants purchased on demand. However, due to the impact of rising raw material prices, the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose. Chen Ling, a business analyst, believes that the raw material fluorite and downstream refrigerant industry will support the two-way, the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to rise, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be 13,000-13,500 yuan / ton.

On October 14th, the hydrofluoric acid commodity index was 117.66, which was the same as yesterday. It was 16.21% lower than the highest point in the cycle of 140.43 points (2018-02-21), which was 119.56% higher than the lowest point of 53.59 points on November 30, 2016. . (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

According to statistics, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has risen slightly in the near future. The domestic hydrofluoric acid operating rate is around 60%. The company reflects that the current supply of hydrofluoric acid in the market is normal, and the recent market conditions are generally in the market. A slight increase, the current mainstream of hydrofluoric acid in the southern region is about 12,500-13,000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 12,500-13,500 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid rose, and the supply of spot goods was normal. Due to the recent increase in the price of raw materials, the price of fluorite continued to rise. The price of goods in some areas such as Jiangxi reached a high level of 3,300 yuan/ton, and the price of raw materials was greatly increased. Up, it is good for the domestic hydrofluoric acid market, but the recent downstream refrigerant trading market is generally, the price of hydrofluoric acid products remains high. The price of some downstream refrigerants has increased, which has certain positive effects on upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the downstream refrigerant market as a whole is still stable, and the R22 refrigerant unit starts at 80%. The R22 market remains strong. The main manufacturer’s factory water supply price rose to 23,000-24,000 yuan / ton, but the production enterprises do not have scattered water spot, mostly in small quantities of steel bottles.In addition, the market’s actual demand performance is not optimistic, and the shipping pressure is too large. The domestic R134a market price has risen steadily, the production rate of production enterprises is normal, the market keeps the supply and demand market better, and the manufacturers ship mainly by export. However, the transaction price on the floor did not change much, and the merchants purchased on demand. However, due to the impact of rising raw material prices, the market price of hydrofluoric acid rose. Chen Ling, a business analyst, believes that the hydrofluoric acid market will continue to rise, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be around 13,500 yuan / ton.

First, the price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, the domestic methanol market has risen in a narrow range this week. The average domestic methanol market price at the beginning of the week was 3227 yuan/ton, and the weekend reported 3255 yuan/ton. The weekly increase was 0.85%, and the price rose 18.93% compared with the same period of last year.

Second, the market analysis

Products: At the current stage, the stocking of the market before the holiday has basically come to an end. Under the pre-sale background of most enterprises in the production area, coupled with the tighter transportation capacity during the holiday period, the short-term factories will perform more contract-based operations, and the new single-entry atmosphere will have some Weakening, the methanol market in the Mainland may be in a narrow range in the short term, and some of them will not be excluded from the forecast. The olefins start and limit gas should be closely watched. The port market has a high consolidation trend or continued, and support factors such as the delivery of paper goods at the end of the month and the strength of the external disk remain. Domestic methanol freight has changed in recent days, with local small increase of 10-30 yuan/ton, including Inner Mongolia Northern Line to Lubei freight reference 180-270 yuan/ton; South line to Lubei freight 190-230 yuan/ton; Shanxi local to Lu North 110-150 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Lubei reference 140-190 yuan / ton; Guanzhong to Shandong southwest reference 170-180 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Formaldehyde: The impact of environmental protection is still there, the downstream plates and other construction starts to remain low, and the demand for BDO is light, Shandong formaldehyde just needs to be shipped mainly; raw material methanol market is still acceptable, and formaldehyde is temporarily stable. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market has risen sharply. The company’s spot is still in short supply, and the short-term supply gap needs to be supplemented. In addition, the impact of the Jianye and Longyu installations continues. The downstream just needs to be steady. Due to the tight spot in the market, the price of small orders was significantly higher than the market range. Close to the double section, the downstream buying intention will be lightened, taking into account the holiday transportation problem. Dimethyl ether: The end-user inventory is in a saturated state. Most of the short-term downstream will mainly digest inventory. The seller’s sales and inventory are generally under pressure. The overall price of domestic dimethyl ether continues to decline. Considering the current strong trend of raw material methanol, the downstream space in the region Extremely limited.

Third, the market outlook

Business community view: positive, domestic supply: coking, limited production, natural gas supply and other news support is still in place, local areas reduce the burden; Shaanxi and Mongolia main production areas more maintenance, the region’s resource supply is relatively tight; foreign supply: horse During the overhaul of the oil plant, it will be restarted near the end of the month; Russia Tomask and Saudi IMC methanol plant will be repaired as scheduled, for one month, the international supply pressure is not large; raw materials: Recently, the industrial gas price in Southwest China has increased, and the cost of the enterprise is supported. Increase; futures Masukura up, sharply high in the afternoon, to a certain extent to boost the spot market; under the stocking before the holiday, the overall receiving atmosphere of the downstream is acceptable. Negative, demand side: Under environmental supervision, the downstream plate production in Shandong and Hebei areas is limited, affecting the demand for formaldehyde resources; and recently some domestic MTO reduction production, to a certain extent affect the digestion of methanol resources; supply: domestic aspects The partial maintenance equipment in Shandong resumed and restarted, and the supply of methanol resources in the area was enlarged; attention was paid to the resumption of maintenance projects in the northwest, Henan, and southwest. Internationally, the US Natural Gasoline unit is fully loaded and the supply is stable. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that the market will be strong when the two quarters approach and the merchants actively stock up.

On September 14, the domestic market for zinc metal rose, the average price of metal zinc in the domestic spot market was 21,627.50 yuan / ton, up 0.02% from the previous trading day; the average ex-factory price was 22,125.71 yuan / ton, compared with the previous trading day. The price rose by 0.03%.

On September 13, the zinc (market) commodity index was 123.51, up 1.35 points from yesterday, down 20.71% from the highest point of 155.77 points (2017-10-09) in the cycle, compared with 72.28 points on November 22, 2015. It rose by 70.88%. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

On September 14th, the price of zinc rose. Recently, the zinc price fluctuated and adjusted. On September 14, the domestic zinc price rose slightly, and the price rose less than 10 yuan/ton. The price was basically stable. In September, the overall balance of supply and demand in the zinc market did not change significantly. The market performance struggled, and the zinc warehouse stocks rose, and the zinc market supply rose sharply. On September 14th, the stock price of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market was 6,165 tons, and the inventory increased by 2005 tons. The futures zinc stocks rose sharply, but the zinc demand did not improve significantly. The market activity of zinc ingots was poor, and the overall transaction volume was low.

Market outlook: After the market outlook, market demand has not improved significantly, and zinc prices have not been able to rise. On the supply side, zinc stocks have seen significant growth in recent stocks. Shanghai futures zinc ingots have an inventory of 6,165 tons, and futures inventories have increased substantially. The zinc market is abundantly supplied, and zinc prices are insufficiently driven, which is a negative for zinc prices. The oversupply phenomenon in the zinc market has aggravated, and the risk of falling zinc prices in the market has increased. It is expected that the zinc price in the market will fall, and the price of zinc ingots will fall below the 20,000 yuan/ton mark in September.

First, the price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business community, as of September 12, the average domestic methanol market price was 3137 yuan / ton, the overall market continued to rise, the price increased by 15.09% over the same period last year.

Second, the market analysis

Product: The domestic methanol market continued to rise. The main methanol enterprises in the main producing areas of the northwest are supported by low stocks. The new price at the beginning of the week has risen sharply. Currently, the shipments are still acceptable, and some enterprises have stopped selling. The price of methanol in the northwest has risen sharply, and the methanol market in the mainland has followed closely. The industry’s mentality is still acceptable, and the quotation is actively pushing up. In the port area, the futures volatility rose, and the number of holders of the goods accompanied the market, the market price fluctuated higher, and the local goods were acceptable. In terms of equipment, a set of 600,000 tons/year of equipment was parked in Shaanxi, a set of 200,000 tons/year in Anhui was restored, and a set of 300,000 tons/year in Henan was parked.

Industry chain: Formaldehyde: Shandong formaldehyde just needs to be shipped mainly, and the overall atmosphere is normal. The raw material methanol continues to rise, and the cost is supported by the surface. Acetic acid: The domestic glacial acetic acid market is rising steadily. Henan enterprise stocks fell to a low level, so the offer was raised. The inventory of North China and East China enterprises are not high. Downstream buying just needed, and the price of acetic acid rose, and some of the contradictions were stronger. At present, the industry pays more attention to the maintenance of the later devices, and the mentality in the field is more cautious. Dimethyl ether: Some enterprises have tried their upside due to the unfavorable cost pressure, and the end-users have exhausted their inventory in the early stage. Under the influence of the company’s push-up stimulus, they have once again concentrated their purchases. The overall price of the DME market has risen widely.

Third, the market outlook

Business community view: This week, the domestic methanol market is mainly dominated by high shocks, and the supply side is tight and supportive. The main producing areas in the northwest region have been rising for the prime minister. Although the domestic methanol market is actively rising, the downstream areas are increasingly in conflict with high prices. Emotions, receiving goods are still cautious, just need to purchase, the market transactions are general, domestic methanol continues to push up or blocked. Concerned about the situation of methanol plants, downstream start-ups, company shipments, port inventory, logistics and futures trends. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that the methanol market will continue to oscillate in the short term.

First, the price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data of the business community, this week, the domestic acetone market was affected by the operating rate of the phenolic ketone plant, and the market once again pushed up. The increase rate reached 6.02% at the beginning of the week. As of now, the domestic enterprise price is 5866.67 yuan/ton, and this week’s increase is 300. -400 yuan / ton.

Second, analysis and review

Products: Entering August, the domestic phenolic ketone market was rapidly affected by the start of the plant. However, due to the lack of upstream demand and port inventory in the middle of the month, the upstream power was insufficient, and there was a slight downward trend in the end of the month. In September, the operating rate of domestic devices was further reduced, port inventory fell, Huizhou Zhongxin 300,000 tons/year phenolic ketone device was parked, and it is expected to drive next Wednesday; Lihua Yiweiyuan temporarily parked for 2-3 days, Zhongsha Petrochemical September 3- 25 overhaul, the contract is halved.

Market situation: Up to now, the market price in Shandong is 5,900 yuan/ton, the price around Yanshan is 5,950 yuan/ton, and the price in East China is 5,700 yuan/ton; the price in South China is high. Overall, it rose at the beginning of the week and the weekend was slightly loose.

Industry chain: Sinopec’s pure benzene listing price is 7,250 yuan / ton; although the current price is slightly loose, but the overall price is at a high level, the propylene price market is strong at around 9350-9400 yuan / ton, from the cost side of the full power. At present, the overall market for acetone is stable, mostly for purchase. Downstream isopropanol market volatility, the terminal plant operating rate is stable, and downstream demand is just the mainstay.

Third, the market outlook

Good factors, entering the national phenolic ketone plant in September. Negative factors, downstream demand in general, manufacturers just need to purchase mainly, the on-site operating rate is relatively stable. The acetone analyst of the business community believes that: in September, manufacturers have more maintenance, but the downstream demand is not good, comprehensive consideration, short-term stability.

First, the price trend

In August 2018, the methanol market volatility rose. According to the price monitoring of the business community, the price of methanol at the beginning of the month was 2,797 yuan/ton, and the price of methanol at the end of the month was 3,023 yuan/ton. The monthly increase was 8.09%, and the price increased by 15.76% compared with the same period of last year.

Second, the market analysis

Products: China’s methanol prices in August continued to fluctuate and rose, out of the “off-season is not weak” differential market, and the intra-month spot trend is highly correlated, the futures end drives the port spot, and then under the premise of the increase in the set of insurance Mainland China’s spot prices have risen. Therefore, domestically produced goods in East China Port are concentrated in the month, including Nanjing, Changzhou and Taicang. However, while domestically produced goods were concentrated in Hong Kong, China’s imports of methanol also increased significantly in August. In August 2018, China’s methanol industry started to decline slightly compared with that in July. In August, domestic methanol started operating at 66.5% per month, with a monthly decline of 0.6 percentage points. It is worth mentioning that in addition to some of the maintenance of the domestic methanol project in this month, some short-term stops have occurred in the month, such as Yankuang Rongxin, Guizhou Jinchi, etc. In addition, environmental impact factors continue to be in the Soviet Union. The north and Shanxi parts still have limited production/downtime, and this factor needs continuous attention.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business companies, there were 15 kinds of commodities in the energy sector that rose in the price of commodity prices in August 2018, of which 11 products were increased by more than 5%, accounting for 68.8% of the monitored products in the sector. The top 3 commodities were coke (26.52%), fuel oil (13.54%) and petroleum coke (12.63%). There was one product with a decrease in the chain ratio, and the product that fell was LNG (-11.93%). This month’s average price increase and decrease was 6.83%.

Third, the market outlook

Business community view: On the positive side, under the influence of environmental protection, Shanxi and North Jiangsu coke oven gas methanol projects are still affected. At present, Zhangzhou and Huayu are still parked, Weitian is low, and local supply is still tight. Recently, Zhongyuan Ethylene Jiangsu Shenghong MTO is running smoothly, some raw materials maintain normal mining, and support is formed in the region and surrounding markets. At present, the external disk negotiations are still firm, and the pressure on the mainland main production areas is not large enough to support the spot end. Under the influence of the “guarantee supply” of natural gas, the domestic gas supply reduction in the fourth quarter is expected to be reduced. At that time, it will have a direct impact on the local arrival of goods in the region and East China; the port has limited circulation and the cost of the arrival of the mainland is high. The spot market continued to be strong. For the bearish side, the overall demand for the downstream demand side is still cautious at this stage. Shandong and Huazhong consumption areas just need to follow up; since the beginning of August, the North Port and Sichuan and Chongqing have successively arrived in Hong Kong, and with the import supplement, the port inventory continues. Maintain the incremental trend; in particular, the changes in the previous hedging volume have received much attention and need to be vigilant; in August, the same coal coal concentrating, Shilin, Xinao (second phase) and other devices will be restarted, local supply will tend to impact; In the west, the annual output of 800,000 tons of equipment is partially ignited. It is expected that the products will be produced at the end of September. In the recent period, the futures market has been ups and downs, and some of the decline stages have dragged down the operating mentality of the operators. The methanol analyst of the business community expects that the domestic methanol market will remain strong in the short term