The market price of asphalt fell slightly this week (October 8-12)

I. price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price is stable this week, and the asphalt price is reported to close at 3654 yuan / ton, 0.22% lower than last week’s Asphalt price.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

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Product: after the National Day holiday, the asphalt market demand did not improve significantly, and the international oil price fluctuated downward, and the asphalt market price continued to bear pressure.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil market has been negative news, and the overall price of crude oil has declined. According to official Saudi news, the country’s crude oil has returned to the level of production before the attack; the international energy agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020; the EIA inventory data of the United States was again negative, with both crude oil inventory and production showing an increase; the weak global economic performance limited the rise of international oil prices.

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In terms of asphalt Market: after the National Day holiday, the demand of asphalt Market in the North has not changed significantly, and the crude oil price has been continuously lower, which makes the asphalt market price bear a downward trend, and the asphalt price of some refineries has been slightly reduced after the festival. The market demand in East China continued the strong situation before the festival, but the shipment of Sinopec and PetroChina refineries was affected to some extent during the national day, and the inventory of refineries increased significantly. At present, the resources of South China and Northeast China still continue to flow into East China. The market demand in South China and southwest China is average. After the national day, the market demand did not show a strong situation, the short-term asphalt market demand performance is hard to be optimistic.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that: the international crude oil price has fallen in shock, and there is no large-scale rush period after the National Day holiday. In addition to the better performance in East China, asphalt prices in other regions are expected to decline steadily.

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China’s Domestic BDO Market

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market fluctuates narrowly and the market atmosphere rises. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of October 12, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9520 yuan/ton, rising by 2.59% annually and falling by 14.07% year on year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic BDO market is tidied up and operated, the inventory of production enterprises is low, the stock intention of manufacturers is strong, the low-end supply is rarely heard, downstream purchasing is mostly maintained long-term follow-up, traders follow the market, the future market pays attention to the plant dynamics, and the BDO market is expected to reorganize and operate in the future.

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On the market side, the BDO market in East China has been reorganized and operated, the reference quotation for bulk water supply is 8700-9200 yuan/ton, the barreled part of the market is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the supply in the market is on the tight side, the stockpile of manufacturers is strong, the low-end supply is reduced, the downstream is more likely to maintain a long contract, some small orders follow-up, the traders will ship on the market, and the future market will pay attention to the plant equipment news. South China BDO market reorganization operation, bulk water quotation reference 8700-9200 yuan/ton, market barrel part of small orders 9600-10000 yuan/ton, some manufacturers inventory is low, spot tension, downstream purchasing more to maintain a long contract, traders offer temporarily stable, some small orders to discuss high-end, the market needs to pay attention to plant news.

Industry chain: raw materials, methanol: northwest methanol midwifery industry wait and see, mainly consolidation; Bohai Rim region turnover is weak, cautious; Huaihai methanol market delivery is poor, partial loosening; Central China region delivery is poor, partial downward; lack of futures under the guidance of port spot consolidation. Some installations in Northwest China will be planned to be repaired soon, and prices will be sorted out at a high level in anticipation of reduced supply. However, delivery in some areas such as southern Shandong and Henan provinces will continue to be light, and shipments will be poor, and manufacturers’prices will turn downward. However, traders in many cities have loosened their minds and prices continue to fall slightly. On the port side, there is a lack of guidance on futures prices. Prices in spot market are mainly consolidated and shipments are stable.

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Calcium carbide: Calcium carbide market shows a downward trend. Market demand performance is general, for the lack of calcium carbide support, production enterprises increase the pressure of shipment, inventory increase. The trading atmosphere in the market is light. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will be stable in the near future, and some prices will still fall.

3. Future Market Forecast

Some manufacturers have low inventories, few low-end goods in the market, traders follow the market, downstream to maintain just a long contract, some small orders follow-up, the future focus on plant plant dynamics, BDO business analysts predict that the domestic market for BDO is narrow collation.

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The market of polyacrylamide was stable in early October

Commodity index: On October 11, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 99.80, which was the same as yesterday. It was 6.84% lower than the peak of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and 4.26% higher than the low of 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

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Price quotation: The monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com) show that on October 1st, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (cationic) market is about 16333.33 yuan/ton, and on December 12th, the mainstream quotation is about 16333.33 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of the market is stable in the early part of this month. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: It is understood that the price of acrylonitrile in the upper reaches of the market in early October has been lowered from about 1250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 11500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a range of about 7.2%. The downstream demand for polyacrylamide is relatively stable. Gongyi City, one of the main domestic producing areas, started to restart production in late September, and the supply of polyacrylamide increased.

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Industry: Since the end of July, the intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and manufacturers have started to resume production. The shutdown cycle has returned. In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “shutdown notice” recently. The notice requests that: according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather conditions in the city, the city attack and strengthen the management of water purification and environmental protection enterprises require all depths. Governance enterprises will stop production before acceptance, and production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on 8 September, the local factories did not receive the notice of start-up immediately, and strict environmental protection inspection was in progress. In late April and September, Gongyi local factories began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. After the start of the National Day in October, the mainstream quotations of manufacturers and traders were stable.

Future market forecast: Business association analysis believes that the current normal production of manufacturers, increased supply, downstream demand has not changed significantly, and on the premise of a substantial downward price reduction, pay attention to whether the future market price will be downward, the general trend is relatively stable in the near future.

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Supply and demand are tightly balanced and copper prices are in a dilemma in September

I. Trend analysis

Align:center

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as shown in the chart above, the narrow fluctuation of copper price in September was the main factor. At the beginning of the month, the price of copper was 46736.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price of copper rose sharply to 47286.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 1.18%, a decrease of 1.81% from the beginning of the year and a decrease of 5.94% from the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Copper prices in September, mainly affected by macroeconomic pressures and trade frictions, continued to bear pressure, but supply continued to be tight, leading to a dilemma between copper prices.

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Supply: During the period of 2018-2019, domestic copper enterprises increased production capacity by nearly 2.47 million tons, and put into operation exceeded expectations, which led to a rebound of supply pressure in the copper market; however, in 2019, when copper enterprises overhauled, the output of copper enterprises in the first half of this year was significantly lower than expected. From January to July 2019, domestic copper refining output totaled 5.713 million tons, down 2.3% from last year. The output showed a downward trend, and since June, copper production began to rise slowly.

Demand side:

Power grid: The investment performance of power grid in the first half of the year was not good, but it improved significantly in July. The cumulative annual growth rate increased from 19.3% in June to 13.9% in July. The potential of power generation in the latter half of the year is great, and the investment scale of power grid in the fourth quarter is expected to increase.

Real estate: In August, the cumulative investment in real estate development fell to 10.5% from 10.6% of the previous value, and the growth rate of real estate investment fell for four consecutive months. However, the growth rate of completed housing area increased from July-11.3% to-10%, and the decline was narrowed.

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Air-conditioning: In August, air-conditioning sales per month were 10.274 million units, an increase of 3.5% compared with the same period last year. Among them, domestic sales were 7.291 million units, an increase of 0.6% compared with the same period last year.

Car: 1-8 months, China’s automobile production and marketing respectively completed 15 million 939 thousand and 16 million 104 thousand vehicles, production and sales decreased by 12.1% and 11%, respectively, which decreased by 1.4 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from 1 to July.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

To sum up, copper has been a narrow concussion since September. On the one hand, it is supported by the decrease in copper production, while the other side can not be effectively boosted. But in general, gold and silver ten are the peak season of consumption. Demand may recover somewhat.

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Prices of precious metals fell slightly after peaking in September

Price Trends of Spot Precious Metals

According to the data of business associations, the average spot price of domestic gold on the 27th day was 348 yuan/g, down 1.56% from 353.50 yuan/g on the 1st day, 2.94% from 358.55 yuan/g on the 4th September, the peak spot price of gold on the 4th September, and up 22.49% from 284.10 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

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The spot price of domestic silver on the 27th day was 4363 yuan/kg, down 2.42% from 4471.33 yuan/kg on the 1st day, 8.55% from 4771 yuan/kg on the 4th September, the peak value of the year, and up 20.60% from 3617.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Precious metals fall slightly after peak value in September

Since June, the precious metals market has been improving all the way. On September 4th, the price reached its peak in the year, and then a slight retracement. At present, the prospects of precious metals in both directions are uncertain, the trade situation is uncertain, the political situation in Europe is unstable, and whether the multiple benefits of economic recession can support the current price remains to be further observed, and it is expected to gradually increase. Enter the oscillation operation zone.

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Potassium carbonate market was stable this week (9.23-9.27)

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate remained stable this week, with the average tax price of 6437.50 yuan per ton for the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate manufactured during the week, and the current price fell by 6.87% compared with last year.

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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the market of potassium carbonate is stable, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is general, the activity is low, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers is not positive, the actual market turnover is insufficient, downstream purchasing maintains just demand, while the plant start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, the overall inventory of low-level purchasing market momentum is low, domestic potassium carbonate. The market is stable. According to the statistics of business associations: in September, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate factory is about 6400-6800 yuan/ton (quotation only for reference). The quotation varies according to the purchasing situation.

3. Future Market Forecast

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Potassium carbonate analysts of business associations believe that this week’s potassium carbonate market is stable, and the end of September is approaching. The traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is underdeveloped. Potassium carbonate prices are as stable as ever. Later, driven by various factors, the main concern is whether demand has increased at the end of the festival, and the price of potassium carbonate may recover.

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The overall stable operation of the phosphate ore market this week (9.16-9.22)

Price Trend

 

 

According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of September 22, the phosphate ore market has been running smoothly as a whole. Enterprises in several mainstream areas monitored by comprehensive business associations have quoted prices for 30% of domestic grade phosphate ores at an average price of 330-430 yuan per ton.

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II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the phosphorus ore market has not fluctuated and continues to operate steadily. At present, the phosphorus ore market transaction is stable. Enterprises supply old customers’orders sporadically. The atmosphere of new orders transaction is slightly light. Some mining enterprises plan to stop production and reduce production. In the near future, the market digests inventory mainly to reduce production and maintain stable quotation. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. in Guizhou is 370 yuan/ton (including tax), the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou is 350 yuan/ton (including tax), and the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fanshan Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd. in Hebei Province is 530 yuan. / Tons (including taxes), 28% phosphorus ore from Liushugou, Hubei, quoted 420 yuan per ton.

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Industry Chain: The market of yellow phosphorus is stable for the time being, the stock is near the end before National Day, and the downstream supply is mainly sporadic. The net phosphorus turnover refers to 18500-20000 yuan per ton. The phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost of raw materials and intends to increase, but downstream is cautious and has limited acceptance of high prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that: in the short term, it is expected that the phosphate ore market will continue to operate steadily.

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China’s domestic hydrofluoric acid market prices fell (9.16-9.20)

According to statistics, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices declined this week, ending the weekend at 10 320 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from 10 370 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5.55% from the same period last year.

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Products: Hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline this week, the recent market situation of manufacturers is poor, the downstream refrigerant industry start-up rate remains low, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, coupled with domestic hydrofluoric acid plants maintain a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers continue to reduce their ex-factory prices. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market was 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was around 9500-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline.

Industry chain: The price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased this week. The factory price of fluorite was 2877.78 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The fluorite price dropped 0.38% this week. The domestic fluorite supply is normal, but the price of fluorite has a downward trend. The downstream cost price has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. Aluminum fluoride price trend of downstream products is temporarily stable in the near future, which is 10 333.33 yuan per ton at the weekend. The price trend is temporarily stable. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining due to the poor market.

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Industry: This week, the spot supply of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market is normal, and the trading market of refrigerant industry in the downstream market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate has maintained a low level, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the raw material market price has a downward trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower next week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be around 10,000 yuan/ton.

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The price of 180 CST fuel oil in China rose sharply this week (9.16-9.20)

Price data

 

By September 20, the average domestic fuel oil distribution price was 4650.00 yuan/ton, up 2.42% from 4540.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

 

The fuel oil commodity index on September 20 was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.75% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 104.38% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil trade is normal this week, the actual transaction price is about 4650 yuan/ton.

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Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 54.85 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the week, 58.13 US dollars per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 5.98%; Brent crude oil was 60.22 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the week and 64.40 US dollars per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 6.94%. Saudi Arabia’s oil equipment was attacked early this week and the market rose in panic. Since the attack, the situation has stabilized. Saudi Arabia has not reduced its oil exports, and American inventories have increased. International oil prices have soared and fallen. On Wednesday, September 11, the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil rose by 154 yuan/ton, the winning bidding amount was 0.9 million tons, the bidding amount was 16.2 million tons, and the volume was 0.9 million tons; the bid base was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the winning range was 3,486-3,506 yuan/ton. On Thursday, September 19 (Thursday), the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil fell by 45 yuan/ton, with 11,000 tons of winning bid, 11,900 tons of bidding and 11,000 tons of volume. The tender base is 3406, the winning range is 3446-3486 yuan/ton, and the next tender time is September 26.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20). Among them, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities rising are liquefied gas (7.87%), Brent crude oil (6.94%) and WTI crude oil (5.98%). ) There is a total of 1 kind of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and diesel oil (-0.77%) is the product of the decline. This week’s average rise and fall was 1.98%.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the surge of international crude oil in Saudi Arabia at the beginning of this week led to the rise of domestic ship fuel market and shale oil prices, which led to a sharp increase of 100-200 yuan/ton in domestic ship fuel market. However, international crude oil prices dropped sharply at the weekend, and shale oil prices fell. The overall ship fuel market was depressed and the wait-and-see mood was strong. Fuel oil market prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, or around 4650 yuan/ton.

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Lithium hydroxide market prices fell slightly this week (9.16-9.20)

I. Lithium hydroxide price trend:

 

The average price of lithium hydroxide was 71266.67 yuan per ton as of September 20, according to the data of the business association’s list. The market of lithium hydroxide was mainly stable. Some enterprises’quotations fell slightly, by 0.09% compared with the beginning of the week and by 6.23% compared with September 1.

II. Market analysis:

Product: Lithium hydroxide market prices fell steadily and moderately this week. The supply of goods in the market is abundant, but the downstream consumption speed is insufficient to follow up, and the contradiction between supply and demand is unbalanced. At present, the quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai is 68,000 yuan/ton, industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai Oujin is 71,800 yuan/ton, industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai Chen lithium material is 71,000 yuan/ton, and industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Zigong Tongfarong is 74,000 yuan/ton. Let’s talk about it one by one.

Industry Chain: Upstream industrial lithium carbonate weekly rise and fall of -0.36%, battery lithium carbonate weekly rise and fall of -0.31%. This week, the price of lithium carbonate has slowed down, and manufacturers are mainly active shipments.

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Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

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3. Future market forecast:

Lithium hydroxide analysts at business associations believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market has been weak recently, and the cost support for lithium hydroxide has also weakened. There is no substantial improvement in downstream demand and lack of strong incentives. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide Market will be reorganized in the short term. More attention should be paid to the downstream market demand.

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