1、 Price trend of epichlorohydrin

(Figure: P value curve of epichlorohydrin product)

2、 Market analysis

In June, epichlorohydrin market fluctuated and fell. As of June 29, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10433.33 yuan / ton, a decrease of 5.72% compared with June 1 (11066.67 yuan / ton), and an increase of 8.87% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

In the first half of June, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 11066.67 yuan / ton on the first half of June. However, the spot supply of epichlorohydrin was tight, but the downstream purchasing enthusiasm was not good. On the third day, the market price was lowered to 11000 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere was stalemate and the actual orders were limited. On the fourth day, the market price was again lowered to 10833.33 yuan / T. the propylene oxide rose steadily and stabilized. The spot supply of epichlorohydrin remained tight and still in stock The price was raised to 11000 yuan / ton on the 6th and stabilized temporarily on the 7th. On the 8th to 11th, the average price quoted by the enterprise was 10833.33 yuan / T. the supply side was tight, but the raw material propylene plummeted, and the cost support was insufficient. The downstream liquid resin factories were shut down for maintenance, and the supply and demand game played. The trading atmosphere was light. On the 12th, the price was again lowered to 10766.67 yuan / T, and the manufacturers offered profits for shipment On the 15th, the price of raw material propylene was raised, but the bearish mood was obvious. The mainstream quotation of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 9800-10300 yuan / T, with a decrease of 2.71% in the first half of June.

In the second half of June, the average quotation price of epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10666.67 yuan / ton on June 16, and the price of raw material propylene continued to rise, but the enthusiasm of downstream inquiry was not high, and the intention of buying was low. With the qualified products of Haixing in Jiangsu province put into the market, more attention was paid to the downstream, and epichlorohydrin manufacturers were under pressure to ship. The prices of 17,18,19 were continuously reduced to 10500 yuan / T, and the actual transaction volume in the market was limited. On the 23rd, the average price quoted by epichlorohydrin enterprises was 10466.67 yuan / ton, and the market trading atmosphere was light. On the 29th, the price was again lowered to 10433.33 yuan / ton. Traders’ quotations were mainly based on the market, with insufficient confidence in the market, and the enthusiasm of downstream participation was not high. In the second half of the month (6.16-6.29), epichlorohydrin decreased by 2.19%.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of epichlorohydrin of some enterprises (for reference only, the actual transaction price is mainly negotiated)

On June 29, the market price of upstream propylene in Shandong continued to rise. According to the price of business agency, Shandong propylene market increased by about 250 yuan / ton in a week at the beginning of June, and there was an obvious correction in the price in the middle of June, with a cumulative decrease of 350 yuan / ton in the seven days of the second week. From June 14 in the middle of the month, the price stopped falling again and rose again. Last Friday, June 19, the price had risen 350-450 yuan / ton. The price remained stable at the weekend, with a total drop of about 250 yuan / ton from the 22nd to 26th. After the Dragon Boat Festival holiday, the price rose again from the 27th. Today, it still rose by 50 yuan / ton. The market transaction is between 6750 and 7000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6800 yuan / ton. Propylene manufacturers are now under low inventory pressure, some units are out of service, crude oil prices have risen slightly, and the downstream market operating rate is ideal. It is expected that the propylene price will still rise slightly in recent days, which has a certain positive impact on epichlorohydrin.

On June 29, the downstream epoxy resin Market in East China declined narrowly, the market conversation was cold and the transaction was insufficient, which had a certain suppression effect on epichlorohydrin.

3、 Future forecast

According to the analysts of epichlorohydrin of the business club, the price of propylene oxide is going up and the support from the cost side is strengthened. However, the downstream shipment is not smooth, the buying gas is light and the demand side is weak. It is expected that the epichlorohydrin market will be weak in the short term, and more attention should be paid to the change of raw material price.

According to the data, as of June 30, the reference average price of domestic n-propanol with packaging in mainstream areas was around 11900 yuan / T, which was basically stable compared with the price of 20 days; compared with the price of 10 days, the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 1.71%. Compared with the 1-day price, the average price increased by 733 yuan / ton, or 6.57%.

The market of n-propanol rose steadily in the first ten days of June

At the beginning of June, driven by the small increase of isopropanol market again, the sentiment of n-propanol market rose. On June 4, the domestic market of n-propanol rose as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the factory quotation of domestic n-propanol was 11700 yuan / ton (including packaging), which was 533 yuan / ton higher than that at the end of May. Subsequently, the market as a whole stable operation to mid month. On the 16th, with the rise of upstream propylene and the continuous rise of raw material ethylene, and the overall high price of isopropanol, the market demand for n-propanol is still on the rise, and the supply is tight. Some n-propanol manufacturers and dealers follow the market to raise the ex factory quotation of n-propanol again by 200-500 yuan / T, resulting in the domestic market of n-propanol to resume in mid June Degrees go up.

High stable operation of n-propanol in China in late June

Since the 20th, the overall high-level stable operation of the domestic n-propanol market. The market price of isopropanol dropped significantly in late June, resulting in the demand for n-propanol as solvent weakened. However, at present, the main production method of n-propanol in China is ethylene process. Since June, the price of raw material ethylene has been steadily moving up, which has given support to the cost of n-propanol. In addition, the stock of n-propanol is tight, so the overall quotation of the market remains high and stable. It is not ruled out that some dealers can make decisions according to their own needs Inventory slightly reduced the price of n-propanol to stimulate shipment, but at present, the overall trend of the market is not affected, the market is mainly stable.

As of June 30, the manufacturer, Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., had normal operation of 30000 T / a n-propanol plant, and the ex factory quotation of n-propanol for external bulk water was RMB 11000 / T (cash purified water ex warehouse price), which was the same as that of a week ago, and increased by 500 yuan / T compared with the beginning of June. At present, the inventory is relatively small and the shipment is carried out according to the plan; the n-propanol quotation of Jinan Pulai Chemical Co., Ltd. is 10800 yuan/ The results showed that the total price of propanol from Aite (Shandong) new material Co., Ltd. was 10500 yuan / T (bulk water) and 11300 yuan / ton (bulk water) of Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. The price quoted by some traders of n-propanol in stock is relatively high, and the price is not easy to monitor. As a result, the specific negotiation situation may be different. Each region also has its own difference. The actual negotiation is mainly based on the actual order, and the future market will wait for the change of raw material price and shipment.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the latest price of n-propanol of some enterprises in China (data for reference only): 1

Enterprise name price type price specification (yuan / ton tax included) remarks time

Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd., ex factory price: 11000 yuan / ton, purified water content ≥%): 99.5; grade: excellent; June 30, 2020

Shandong fengcang Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11600 yuan / ton, content ≥%): 99.5; grade: excellent; June 29, 2020

Ningbo Haorui Chemical Co., Ltd. market price: 11600 yuan / ton, barrel content ≥%): 99.5; grade: excellent; June 29, 2020

Jinan daianhe Chemical Co., Ltd., ex factory price: 10500 yuan / T, purified water content ≥%): 99.5; grade: excellent; June 30, 2020

Jinan Mingwei Chemical Co., Ltd. ex factory price: 11300 yuan / ton, purified water content ≥%): 99.5; grade: excellent; June 28, 2020

Jinan planhua Chemical Co., Ltd. ex factory price: 10800 yuan / ton, purified water content ≥%): 99.5; grade: excellent; June 29, 2020

Aite (Shandong) new materials Co., Ltd. ex factory price: 10500 yuan / T, purified water content ≥%%: 99.5; grade: excellent; June 29, 2020

Upstream, propylene oxide Market in June went up all the way. On 1 day, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 8933.33 yuan / ton. Due to the rise of raw material prices and the support of new downstream orders, the price of propylene oxide began to rise, with strong cost support, no pressure on factory inventory and rigid replenishment in the downstream. In addition, some propylene oxide manufacturers reduced the burden, and the supply side decreased. Under the downstream fear of rising, new orders increased, and the supply side supported the manufacturers to maintain the market The average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 9800 yuan / ton, up 9.70% in half a month. However, the propylene oxide manufacturers did not have inventory pressure for the time being, and the mentality of price support remained. The market quotation continued to rise steadily. As of the 28th, the average price quoted by propylene oxide enterprises was 10100 yuan / ton, up 13.06% compared with that on June 1 (8933.33 yuan / ton).

In terms of raw materials, ethylene has been on the rise recently. The average price of ethylene on the 26th was $761.00/t, compared with $731.75/t on the previous trading day, up 4.00%. The current price is up 28.22% month on month, and the current price is 17.19% lower than last year. Asian ethylene market prices remained stable. As of the 26th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at 845-855 USD / T, CFR Southeast Asia closed at 785-795 USD / T. European ethylene market price rose, as of the 26th, the European ethylene market price was FD, northwest Europe closed at 720-730 US dollars / ton, CIF northwest Europe closed at 675-683 US dollars / ton. The price of ethylene in the U.S. rose to 275-293 U.S. dollars / ton as of the 26th. Generally speaking, the ethylene market in Europe and the United States is mainly on the rise. The demand of the whole ethylene market is better, and the trading atmosphere is active, and the rise is relatively sufficient.

N-propanol may fall in July due to weakening demand

Overall, the domestic n-propanol market supply-demand relationship has been maintained in a relatively balanced state. In recent years, due to the demand for raw materials and as solvent, the market price has been rising all the way. At present, although the raw material support is strong, the downstream demand has weakened after the fall of isopropanol market, and some dealers have lowered their quotations. Although the overall impact on the market has not been obvious for the time being, this is undoubtedly the alarm of the later trend of the market. Therefore, it is expected that if the follow-up demand of n-propanol market can not be made up in time, the market of n-propanol may fluctuate and fall in July.

1、 Price trend

According to the data from the business club’s bulk list, the trend of domestic toluene market was stable this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3500 yuan / ton, down 1.41% month on month.

2、 Analysis and comment

The overall price of toluene this week is stable. At present, the downstream demand is general, the market trading atmosphere is not active, and the port inventory is declining. Compared with the previous period, the market price is slightly stronger. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3470 yuan / ton. As the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not clear, the market is concerned about the trend of oil price and the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of the global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the supply side and demand side formed expected pressure on oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival: shale oil production in the United States rose sharply; the second outbreak of the global epidemic was confirmed; and the trade friction between Europe and the United States continued to escalate. Affected by this, crude oil prices briefly broke through the previous high and then fell back, and the probability of oil price fluctuations in the future increased. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 4.51%, Brent futures was down 5.14%, WTI futures was down 2.96%, and Dubai futures was down 2.19%.

In terms of downstream, TDI, the market as a whole is weak, and the decline is obvious. The dealer’s offer continues to go down, and the downstream mentality tends to be cautious. For the domestic goods with bill of lading in East China, the reference is 10100-10400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai is 10600-10800 yuan / ton. It is expected that the short-term TDI market will still be weak and focus on the factory operation after the festival. In terms of PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest price of external disk is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

In the short term, the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, the total number of us oil drilling wells and EIA inventory situation are considered by toluene analysts of business club chemical branch. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market price of toluene will adjust slightly next week.

Business agency: the trend of isomeric xylene is stable this week, and the price is slightly sluggish (June 22 – June 28)

1、 Price trend

The domestic xylene market price was stable this week, with the average domestic price of 3680 yuan / ton as of Friday, which was flat compared with last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

This week, the price of isomeric xylene is generally stable, compared with the previous period, the market price is slightly sluggish, and the transaction is not active. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. As the outlook for crude oil supply and demand is not clear, the market is concerned about the trend of oil price and the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of the global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the news of the meeting of the OPEC + Joint Ministerial supervision committee, which will meet again on July 15.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the supply side and demand side formed expected pressure on oil prices during the Dragon Boat Festival: shale oil production in the United States rose sharply; the second outbreak of the global epidemic was confirmed; and the trade friction between Europe and the United States continued to escalate. Affected by this, crude oil prices briefly broke through the previous high and then fell back, and the probability of oil price fluctuations in the future increased. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent was down 4.51%, Brent futures was down 5.14%, WTI futures was down 2.96%, and Dubai futures was down 2.19%.

In terms of downstream, PX market, the listed price of Sinopec’s enterprises in China this week is about 4300 yuan / ton, and the latest external price is about 534 US dollars / ton FOB Korea and 552 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that the PX market will maintain a stable trend in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the domestic PTA spot market price is about 3670 yuan / ton, and the external price is about 444 US dollars / ton CFR China. PTA price is expected to maintain a stable trend next week. In terms of ox market, Sinopec’s o-benzene price is stable at 4400 yuan / T, and the external price of o-benzene is about 515 US dollars / ton FOB Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will maintain a stable trend next week.

3、 Future forecast

Xylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe: in the short term, OPEC + production reduction, total number of oil drilling in the United States and EIA inventory situation in the supply cost side. In the medium term, on the demand side, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, the impact of the second outbreak in Europe and the United States on the economic restart of crude oil demand, and the recovery progress of the industrial chain. Next week, we will focus on the secondary spread of overseas epidemic situation, the impact of global economic recession on crude oil demand, and the trend of international crude oil. On the whole, it is expected that the domestic market price of toluene will adjust slightly next week.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the price of plasticizer DOP rose in June, while the price of DOP rose slowly. As of June 28, the price of DOP in East China was 7366.67 yuan / ton, up 5.49% from 6983.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month, up 2.79% from last year.

Cost factor

From the trend chart of raw material phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose sharply in June, and then it remained stable. In the first ten days of June, the price of DOP raw material phthalic anhydride rose, and the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and remained stable in the middle and last ten days of June. In general, phthalic anhydride rose in the first ten days of June, and DOP rose strongly. Since the middle and last ten days of June, phthalic anhydride market has remained stable, and DOP market rose weakly with some downward pressure.

From the trend chart of octanol price, it can be seen that octanol price rose steadily in June, DOP cost rose steadily, and DOP rose strongly.

Industry chain factors

From the PVC price trend chart, we can see that PVC price rose sharply in early June, and then PVC price fluctuated and remained stable. In late June, PVC price fluctuated and fell, PVC market fell, and DOP demand was mainly rigid demand, PVC market fell, increasing the pressure on DOP.

Market overview and future expectation

According to Bai Jiaxin, data analyst of DOP of business agency, in terms of raw materials, the prices of DOP raw materials remained high in June, the cost of DOP fluctuated and increased, and the pressure of DOP increased; in terms of demand, the price of PVC fell in late June, the demand of DOP was mainly based on rigid demand, the enthusiasm of downstream customers’ procurement decreased, and the negative pressure on DOP increased. Generally speaking, the future DOP’s upward momentum is weakened and downward pressure is increased. It is expected that the future DOP’s market will fluctuate and maintain stability.

The operating rate of refineries remained high, the supply of refined oil was sufficient, the demand of terminal market was insufficient, and the domestic gasoline and diesel prices fell. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the domestic gasoline price this week (the week of June 19) is 4955.17 yuan / ton, 1.24% lower than that of last week. The domestic diesel price is 4895 yuan / ton, 0.84% lower than last week’s diesel price.

According to data, China imported 47.97 million tons of crude oil in May, up 19.2% year on year. A large number of crude oil is imported, and domestic refineries are also operating at full capacity. The data shows that in the first ten days of June, the operating rate of main refineries rose to about 71%, and that of Shandong local refineries rose to 76%. The domestic supply of gasoline and diesel is sufficient. In April, the apparent consumption of refined oil was 27.64 million tons, up 2.1% year on year, of which gasoline was up 4.53% year on year and diesel was up 13.4% year on year.

In terms of demand, the demand is not good enough. In terms of gasoline, the high temperature in summer, the downstream consumption in most areas of the North continues to be good, and the demand in some areas of the south is reduced due to rainfall. In terms of diesel oil, traditional industries such as engineering, infrastructure, mining and so on still support the market, but the downstream stock demand is relatively low.

This week, the international crude oil price is in the rebound trend after the fall, but the recent international crude oil market is not good enough to follow up, and the international oil price cannot break the floor price of $40 / barrel price adjustment of refined oil, which has limited support to the domestic market price of refined oil.

Lu Xingjun, an oil product analyst with business club, believes that the current production reduction agreement continues to underpin oil prices, but there is still the possibility of a second outbreak of the new crown epidemic. In addition, the domestic oil product supply is sufficient, and it is expected that the domestic oil product price will continue to be slightly reduced by about 100 yuan / ton next week.

1、 Market price trend of POM

Price curve of POM

According to the monitoring of business agency, the average price of Polyoxymethylene (96) in Shandong at the beginning of this week was 4466 yuan / ton, while the weekend price was 4433 yuan / ton, down 0.75%.

2、 Market analysis

Shandong aldehyde Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of POM. The ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4100 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton from last week. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4600 yuan / ton, which is the same as last week. Polyoxymethylene is light and stable.

According to the price monitoring of the upstream methanol, the domestic methanol fell by about 0.16% this week; the downstream market demand of POM is general, and the summer is the traditional off-season, which depresses the price of POM.

3、 Future forecast

Downstream demand is limited, the business community POM analysts think: price or will maintain stable operation.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of the 19th, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol was 5550 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton or 1.83% compared with the beginning of this week (15th); compared with the beginning of this month (1st), the price was reduced by 16 yuan / ton, down 0.30%, and the maximum amplitude from June 1st to 19th was 2.40%. On June 18, the n-butanol (industrial grade) commodity index was 44.70, up 0.13 points from yesterday, down 55.30% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.00 (2011-10-08), and up 49.55% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

In the first ten days of June, affected by the restart of some units and the weakness of raw materials, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere turned weak, and the n-butanol market fell all the way.

In the first three days of June, the market was in stable operation as a whole, and downstream procurement was on demand, with general market transactions. On April 4, due to the excessive inventory in some areas of n-butanol, the factory delivered the goods at a profit, and the market price of n-butanol decreased by 50-100 yuan / ton. Then, the market of n-butanol did not continue to decline, and the increase of propylene still provided cost support. Until the weekend (7), the market of n-butanol remained stable, the manufacturer mainly delivered orders, and the downstream just needed replenishment. On August 8, some n-butanol plant units were restarted, the supply side was relatively sufficient, coupled with the influence of weak propylene raw material, the downstream wait-and-see mood was heavy, the trading atmosphere turned weak, and the market price fell slightly. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on August 8, the average ex factory price of n-butanol dropped to 5466 yuan / ton, down 100 yuan / ton, down 1.80% compared with the beginning of the month.

On the 11th, with the resumption of some factories and the increase of sales, the inventory of n-butanol was too much, the downstream maintained just needed replenishment, the operation was cautious, and the quotation of some factories was slightly reduced again, with a reduction of 50 yuan / ton. Then the market was weak and reorganized to the weekend. According to the monitoring data of the business society, the average ex factory price of n-butanol on the 14th was 5433 yuan / ton, down 133 yuan compared with the price on the 1st of June Yuan / ton, down 2.40%.

Low half month end up n-butanol strong rally this week

Starting from this week, on the 15th, the mainstream price of n-butanol in China was increased. The main reason for the increase was that the willingness of some butanol units to switch to octanol was enhanced due to the high price difference between butanol and octanol. In addition, some factories stopped for maintenance, the inventory of n-butanol was low, the supply of goods was tight, the downstream just needed replenishment, the trading atmosphere was improved, and the factory’s offer was firm. On the 15th, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the ex factory quotation of n-butanol of Luxi Chemical Co., Ltd. was 5500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 1.85% compared with the price at the end of last week (12 days); the ex factory quotation of Wanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. in East China was 5500 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton, or 1.85% compared with the price at the end of last week (12 days). Then this week, the supply of main n-butanol factories continued to be tight, and the overall market quotation moved up. In addition, the cost of propylene increased, which gave support to the cost of n-butanol. The factory inventory was low, the downstream purchasing atmosphere continued to improve, and the market low price quotation continued to decrease. This week, the quotation of n-butanol continued to rise. As of the 19th, the ex factory quotation of Wanhua chemical in East China is 5600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week; the ex factory quotation of Shandong lihuayi n-butanol is 5450 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week; the ex factory quotation of Luxi n-butanol is 5600 yuan / ton, up 100 yuan / ton this week. At present, according to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic n-butanol is 5550 yuan / ton, which is 100 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of this week (15th), 1.83% higher; 86 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of last week (8th), 1.50% higher; 16 yuan / ton lower, 0.30% lower than that at the beginning of this month (1st), and the maximum amplitude from June 1st to 19th is 2.40%.

Upstream, the market price of propylene in Shandong continued to rise this week. After a week’s rally in early June, Shandong propylene market showed a significant correction in the middle of the price. According to the price of the business agency, last week’s 7-day cumulative decline of 350 yuan / ton. But at the end of the week, the price stopped falling and recovered. Today, the price has risen 250-350 yuan / ton continuously. Now, the market turnover is between 6750-6950 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is about 6750 yuan / ton. At present, propylene manufacturers are in good condition of delivery, no inventory pressure. On the 16th of this week, the price of crude oil was significantly increased and the market was bullish, which had a certain pull-up effect on propylene. On the other hand, the downstream propylene plant has a good profit, a high enthusiasm for receiving goods, a positive market procurement and an active overall atmosphere.

According to analysts of n-butanol, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol market is good at present, the confidence of operators is improved, and the short-term factory sales pressure is reduced. It is expected that the negotiation center of domestic n-butanol market will continue to rise next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of the large scale list of business agencies, the domestic xylene market price rose slightly this week. As of Friday, the domestic average price was about 3830 yuan / ton, up 2.13% on last week.

2、 Analysis and comment

Due to the impact of this week’s surge in international crude oil, the current market wait-and-see atmosphere has increased sharply, and the port inventory is average. At present, the mainstream price in East China is about 3700 yuan / ton. Due to the uncertain prospect of crude oil supply and demand, the future market will focus on the trend of oil price and wait for stabilization.

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, the market is worried about the risk of the second spread of the epidemic, which led to the surge in crude oil prices this week. As of early Friday morning, spot Brent fell 4.19%, Brent futures fell 4.76%, WTI futures fell 8.07%, and Dubai futures fell 0.51%.

Downstream, in PX market, this week, the price of domestic Sinopec’s enterprises was about 4100 yuan / ton, and the latest price on the outside market was about 505 US dollars / ton for FOB South Korea and 525 US dollars / ton for CFR China. It is expected that the market price of PX will be slightly revised back in the short term. In terms of PTA market, the spot market price of PTA in China is about 3650 yuan / ton, and the external market price is about 425 US dollars / ton CFR China. It is expected that PTA price will be slightly revised back next week. In the ox market, Sinopec’s price of o-benzene is stable, at 4300 yuan / ton, and the external price of o-benzene is about 515 US dollars / ton FOB South Korea. It is expected that the price of o-benzene will be slightly revised back next week.

3、 Future forecast

According to xylene analyst of business and chemical branch, in the short term, we can see the supply cost side, OPEC + production reduction, total number of us oil drilling and EIA inventory. In the medium term, we can see the demand side, the economic and trade situation between China and the United States, the progress of economic restart in Europe and the United States, and the progress of industrial chain recovery. Next week, we will focus on the trend of crude oil. Overall, we expect xylene prices in the domestic market to adjust next week.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, on June 12, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers of salicylic acid (industrial grade) was 14666.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the price at the beginning of the week (8 days), and the market was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The salicylic acid market is stable this week. After the end of raw materials rose, it became stable, the support was fair, the end demand was stable, the export was slightly improved, there were not many new orders, and it was mainly sold in the domestic market. At present, most of the salicylic acid manufacturers have a stable attitude towards volume, and the market is stable. Most of the manufacturers have no price adjustment plan for the time being. As of June 12, the industrial price of chemical salicylic acid in Maoyuan, Zhenjiang is about 15000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 24000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 22000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Hebei Jingye Chemical Co., Ltd. is about 14000 yuan / ton, the pharmaceutical price is 29000 yuan / ton, and the sublimation price is 20000 yuan / ton. The industrial price of salicylic acid in Shandong Longxin pharmaceutical industry is about 15500 yuan / ton, the factory price of pharmaceutical grade is about 25300 yuan / ton, the factory price of sublimation grade is about 18300 yuan / ton, and the factory price of methyl salicylate is about 24300 yuan / ton.

Upstream, from the cost point of view, phenol’s overall upward trend has been temporarily stopped. The negotiation in East China fell from 8000 yuan / ton in the past few days to 7800-7850 yuan / ton. In the view of the business community, although phenol still has a downward trend. In terms of sulfuric acid, from the manufacturer’s quotation, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong this week is temporarily stable, the manufacturer’s inventory is small, and the downstream demand is low. According to analysts of business association sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in Shandong market in the short term, sulfuric acid market may decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to salicylic acid analysts of the business agency, the current cost end support is acceptable, and the terminal demand is stable, but the transaction atmosphere is not warm and not hot, and the manufacturer keeps a stable volume. It is expected that the salicylic acid market will continue to maintain stable operation in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of June 5, the average price of domestic PVC mainstream (the average price of SG5 produced by calcium carbide method) was 6337.5 yuan / ton, and the price at the beginning of the week was 6112.5 yuan / ton. The average price in the week rose 225 yuan, or 3.68%, down 6.11% compared with the same period last year. The lowest point in the cycle is April, and the maximum amplitude is 17.09%.

2、 Market analysis

In the first week of June, the PVC spot market continued to rise strongly, with the average price rising more than 200 yuan in the week, and the mainstream price was mostly around 6300. This week, the price of PVC rose significantly, and the futures continued to rise to above 6300. The spot market followed the rise. In some regions, the price has been adjusted many times, and the futures fell down near the weekend. However, the willingness of the spot market to callback is not strong, and businesses are mainly on the lookout. This week’s fundamental preference is that the shortage of goods supply in some areas of PVC has not improved, the on-site arrival is limited, the social inventory continues to decline, and the manufacturer’s shipment is not under pressure. Meanwhile, the domestic infrastructure demand gradually increases. The data shows that the average new housing transaction area in the first tier cities continues to rise on a month on month basis, with a month on month increase of 20.1%. The real estate demand drives the PVC market to rise, and some downstream factories start construction The rate reached the level of the same period last year, but in the face of the rising price of PVC, the downstream enterprises are not enthusiastic about receiving goods, maintaining rigid demand, purchasing cautiously, and the overall transaction atmosphere is not warm or hot. However, driven by the strong price sentiment of PVC merchants, the PVC price callback is not large. Moreover, in June, there are still maintenance plans for PVC enterprises, such as Tangshan Sanyou, Xinjiang Tianye, Dezhou Shihua, Zhonggu mining, etc. PVC maintenance loss and operation rate are declining, the manufacturer’s inventory is not under pressure for the time being, the order situation is good, the supply side is good to support PVC price rising, and the short-term market is still optimistic.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of June 5, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 6000-6400 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6270-6370 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 6250-6350 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6350-6450 yuan / ton, and the prices of all regions are increased.

Upstream: on June 4, WTI crude oil futures market in the United States rose, with the settlement price of major contracts rising by $0.12 to $37.41/barrel. Brent crude oil futures market price rose, and the settlement price of main contracts was $39.99/barrel, up $0.20. The market waited for the results of OPEC + meeting, and the oil price was more volatile. The crude oil market rose slightly, which supported the cost of ethylene. The price of ethylene continued to rise. The price of styrene in the downstream rose slightly, and the ethanol market was consolidated at a high level, which supported the price of ethylene. This week, the ethylene market went all the way up.

The price of raw materials is low and the cost of calcium carbide is generally supported. PVC market in the lower reaches is gradually rising, customers in the lower reaches are more active in purchasing calcium carbide, and the supply of calcium carbide is tight. Later, calcium carbide rose slightly in shock.

This week, the rubber and plastic market rose sharply, while the rubber and plastic products rose more or fell less, with the overall growth expanding month on month. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the list of commodity prices in the 22nd week of 2020 (6.1-6.5), there are 14 kinds of commodities rising month on month in rubber and plastic sector, with PVC (3.68%), natural rubber (2.47%) and PP (drawing) (2.40%) as the top three commodities. There are four kinds of commodities that declined on a month on month basis, and the top three products were cis-1.44%, SBR (- 0.93%) and PA66 (- 0.53%). This week’s average was up or down 1.19%. Overall, this week’s rubber and plastic market in the cost side support, supply and demand side of the game, speculation factors, the formation of the overall sharp rise, the trend of differentiation of the rise and fall of various products.

3、 Future forecast

According to PVC analysts of the business club, there are still enterprise overhauls in the near future, with large capacity, positive recovery of downstream products industry, and strong support for cost end. PVC fundamentals as a whole are still preferred, and the focus is constantly rising, and it is expected that there will be further rise in the short term.