On the one hand, the international oil price continued to improve. Although it experienced a slight drop in a few days, it soon stood at the high level in the previous year again, which significantly supported the prices of major domestic chemical commodities. On the other hand, affected by the factors of replenishment after the festival, the market consumption expectation increased and the market inquiry increased significantly, which had a pulling effect on all products. At the same time, affected by the continuous rise of pure benzene Market during the holiday period and the continuous tight supply, the crude benzene industry chain showed an eye-catching performance. According to the commodity prices monitored by the business agency, crude benzene rose by 18.08% and hydrogenated benzene by 14.29% in less than half a month from April 30 to May 13.

Since the end of April, crude oil prices have been supported by a high level. During the festival, pure benzene supply in Europe and the United States continues to be tight. The window of external market soaring and Asian arbitrage has opened. Pure benzene in Asia is exported to Europe and the United States, while domestic imports are reduced, and spot supply continues to be tight. Sinopec has frequently raised the ex factory price of pure benzene since the end of April. As of May 12, it has raised the ex factory price of pure benzene four times, with a cumulative increase of 900 yuan / ton. At present, the ex factory price of pure benzene of Sinopec is 8200 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical is 8150 yuan / ton.

Affected by the 51 small and long holidays, most of the crude benzene enterprises still implement the bidding price on April 28 before the festival for a long time after the festival. After a new round of bidding started on May 12, the crude benzene price rose sharply, the mainstream manufacturers in Shandong increased by 860 yuan / ton, and the profit of hydrobenzene began to shrink. In terms of coking enterprises, the overall profit is good at present. The environmental protection and production reduction policy in Shanxi Province has been gradually relaxed since May. The local coking enterprises have started to recover gradually. The enterprises start to work actively, and the crude benzene supply is relatively stable.

In terms of downstream demand, as of May 12, the overall operating rate of domestic hydrogenated benzene enterprises was about 68%. At present, the prices of hydrogenated benzene and pure benzene are at a high level, and they return to the high level of 8000 after four years. The profits of enterprises have improved, the manufacturers are active in production, and some units have plans to restart. At present, the demand for crude benzene is good. However, the high price of crude benzene has reduced the profit margin of hydrogenated benzene, and hydrogenated benzene manufacturers have a strong price support mentality.

In the future, the business community thinks that the downstream styrene price fluctuates frequently, pure benzene and hydrogenated benzene are at the high level in the past four years, and the market needs time to digest the recent increase. It is expected that the crude benzene industry chain commodity will run at a high price in the short term, and the driving force will be insufficient.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business news agency’s block list, the overall price of toluene rose slightly this week. On April 30, the price of toluene was 5697 yuan / ton; On Sunday (May 9), the price was 5902 yuan / ton, up 205 yuan / ton or 3.6% from last week; It was 68.63% higher than that of the same period last year.

2、 Analysis and comment

Supported by the price rise of related aromatic products, toluene market was active after the festival. Sinopec’s Toluene listing price continued to rise, and the bottom support strengthened. However, the downstream demand follow-up is general, and the gasoline blending rise lacks sustainability, which limits the toluene rise. In terms of external market, as of May 7, the price of imported toluene from South Korea was 760 US dollars / ton, up 35 US dollars / ton, or 4.83%, from April 30; The price of imported toluene in East China was 780 US dollars / ton, up 35 US dollars / ton, or 4.7%, on April 30.

In terms of crude oil, good news: within the week, OPEC + kept the policy of gradually increasing production unchanged, and the energy demand in Europe and the United States improved to support the market. Bad news: the epidemic situation in India is severe, and the recovery of crude oil demand is full of uncertainty. On April 30, Brent rose $1.775/barrel, or 2.65%; WTI rose $1.4 per barrel, or 2.21%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, East China’s TDI fell in a weak position, with domestic goods at 14766.67 yuan / ton, down 5.74% from last week and up 47.67% from the same period last year.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price remained stable, at 6400 yuan / ton, up 60% year on year. As of May 7, the closing prices in Asia were US $859-861 / T FOB Korea and US $877-879 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts from the chemical branch of business society think: first, look at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of oil drilling platforms in the United States, and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States, and the progress of the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of new technology, the dollar index and stock market linkage.

The external support and the bottom support of Sinopec’s listing price are strong, and the short-term trend of toluene is expected to be still strong. We will continue to pay attention to the impact of crude oil and gasoline blending price trend, toluene plant maintenance trends, toluene’s late arrival in Hong Kong and downstream demand changes on toluene price.

Trade name: isooctanol

Latest price (May 10): RMB 16500.00 / ton

On May 10, the factory quotation of isooctanol in Shandong Province rose, up 700 yuan / ton, or 4.43% compared with the quotation on May 7. The upstream propylene market is in high consolidation, the cost of isooctanol is well supported, the downstream DOP market is rising slightly, the downstream procurement enthusiasm is good, and the recent shutdown and maintenance of isooctanol unit is more, and the supply is insufficient.

Recently, the price of isooctanol in Shandong Province has risen slightly: the price quoted by the manufacturer is about 16800 yuan / ton.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of May 8, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 15566 yuan / ton, and 2566 yuan / ton higher than that of May 5 (the average price of n-butanol reference is 13000 yuan / ton), and 19.71% higher on the third day after the saving; Compared with the price of 1 April (reference average price of n-butanol is 10500 yuan / ton), the average price is up 4566 yuan / T, up 41.52%.

Spot tension just needs to support n-butanol, which rose 20% in three days after saving

After May 1 Labor Day, the domestic market of n-butanol rose sharply, with a total increase of 19.54% in the three days. The reason for the sharp increase in market price is mainly due to the maintenance of n-butanol unit after saving, the overall starting rate of the plant is low. The downstream butyl acrylate users just need to purchase raw materials, and the demand is stable to support n-butanol upward. The spot supply of n-butanol is tight, and the market has been in short supply. Therefore, the price of the factory offer rose all the way, 6, 7 and 8 days, The market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province rose to 14700-16000 yuan / ton, which was up 1700-3000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival. At present, after the market price rose to the high point, the market transaction on August had been dominated by small and medium-sized orders. The high price of current raw materials began to appear wait-and-see attitude, but the market supply was still in tension. On August 8, the biggest price adjustment of n-butanol plant was Yantai Wanhua chemical. The ex factory price of n-butanol in North China rose to 16000 yuan / ton, the ex factory price of n-butanol in East China rose to 16400 yuan / T, and that of n-butanol in South China rose to 16600 yuan / T, and the price increased 1800 yuan / ton compared with the price of July.

Upstream, on May 7, the propylene market price in Shandong Province kept rising. According to the price chart of business agency, the propylene price in Shandong Province rose continuously in the first ten days in April, and the price in the second ten days fell sharply, and remained stable at the end of the month. The first two days of May 1 period continued to stabilize, and began to rise continuously on the third day. Today, it still rose 50 yuan / ton. The current market transaction has reached 8300-8400 yuan / ton, with the mainstream price of about 8300 yuan / ton. The US propylene prices remained stable in May, while Asian propylene prices rose slightly on June, which had little impact on the propylene market. There is no pressure on the stock of propylene market, some of the devices are still under maintenance, and the source of goods is slightly tight.

The situation of continuous tension in the normal butanol market will be put into operation at high level

At present, the spot supply of n-butanol is still tight, but the market price almost touches the ceiling, and the downstream is more and more optimistic about high price. The purchasing is calm compared with the previous days. The driving force of the continuous rise of n-butanol is slightly insufficient, but it is still necessary for the plant to resume work, and the market of n-butanol will continue to be tense in the short term. Therefore, analysts of normal butanol of business agency believe that in the short term, the domestic normal butanol market will generally operate at high level.

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, as of May 7, the average factory price reference of domestic butanone market was 9066 yuan / ton, which was 133 yuan / ton higher than that of May 5 (8933 yuan / ton); Compared with April 1 (the reference average price of butanone was 8033 yuan / ton), the average price was increased by 967 yuan / ton, with a total increase of 12.03%.

Stable pre Festival movement and slightly higher post Festival butanone Market

During the period from the end of April to May Day, the domestic butanone market was stable as a whole. After the start of the festival, the overall market of butanone rose slightly on the 6th, and the market price rose a lot in the early stage. At present, the market has been greatly pushed up and resisted. After the festival, the transaction atmosphere of butanone market is general, the market atmosphere is low, and the actual orders need to be followed up, but there is still some support for export, Individual factory inventory shortage, support butanone after the festival quotation to maintain strong and slightly up. As of July 7, butanone market in South China has performed strongly, with the mainstream transaction price of 9050-9150 yuan / ton; Ningbo butanone market rose, turnover remained calm, the market more cautious wait-and-see. At present, the mainstream transaction price in Ningbo is 9050-9150 yuan / ton. The butanone market in South China is strong, with transaction prices ranging from 9300 to 9400 yuan / ton. Most of the operators also hold a wait-and-see attitude. There are only a few transactions among secondary traders of butanone, and the downstream receiving is just in need, and the actual orders are being followed up. Butanone market in East China rose, with transaction prices ranging from 9050 to 9100 yuan / ton.

According to the business news agency, the following is the reference price of butanone in some parts of China in May

product region April 26 May 07 Up and down

Butanone East China 8900 yuan / ton 9100 yuan / ton + two hundred

Butanone south China 9200 yuan / ton 9300 yuan / ton + one hundred

Butanone North China 8700 yuan / ton 8900 yuan / ton + two hundred

High prices and demand go against the road, the market will be deadlocked in the fall

In the two days after May Day, the domestic butanone market rose slightly, but the downstream demand did not improve significantly. Most of them kept a calm and wait-and-see attitude, and the market transaction atmosphere was flat. Therefore, butanone analysts of the business community believed that in the short term, the butanone market might fall into a standoff between supply and demand, and the market price would also fall slightly.

Price trend

According to the data of the business club’s block list, the domestic market of PA66 fell from a high level in April, and the spot prices of various brands were generally reduced. As of April 30, the average offer price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding sample enterprises was about 41150 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.08% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month, and a rise of 106.78% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

The price of adipic acid in China fell from a high level in March after the upstream adipic acid peaked. On the supply side, adipic acid maintained a high level of operation rate in April, and the enterprises gradually accumulated the stock, resulting in greater inventory pressure. As the market entered the off-season, the speed of delivery decreased significantly, so it was inevitable for the enterprises to reduce the price and remove the stock. During the upsurge of the market in the early stage, the merchants on the floor had to make up their positions. In April, the market turned to fall, and the dealers forced the enterprises to reduce their prices and ship goods. Under the influence of increasing supply pressure and relatively weak demand, the price lost its support and gradually went down. Business news agency believes that adipic acid is still in the de inventory cycle, and the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise. It is difficult to ease the market supply pressure in the later stage in the short term, mainly due to the increase of shipping pressure of enterprises and the slowing down of downstream procurement. High price may lead to accumulation of storage. It is expected that adipic acid may continue to adjust, and the possibility of range continuing to move down cannot be ruled out.

The upstream raw material heat has cooled down, which weakens the cost support of PA66. PA66′s supply and demand weakness is also one of the main factors to drag down the market. Due to the continuous high cost, the overall operating rate of domestic PA66 industry has stabilized to about half. At the same time, although the enterprise has no pressure on inventory, the profit margin is limited, and the production and shipment mainly meet the requirements of the early stage. The shift of cost pressure on the downstream makes end users complain endlessly, and the purchasing strategy is more cautious. In terms of trading, most of the goods are taken by small orders in the market, and the decrease of trading power causes price fluctuation to a certain extent.

Future forecast

Analysts from business news agency said: in April, the domestic PA66 market was still affected by the tight supply of raw materials, and the cost side pressure compressed the profit margin of polymerization enterprises. The atmosphere in the venue is cooling, and supply and demand are weak. Downstream take goods passive follow-up, to high price goods more serious resistance. It is expected that PA66 market will continue to be stable in the short term.

In April, the domestic adipic acid price fell from a high level and fluctuated downward. After the market peaked in March, the domestic adipic acid price lost support and gradually declined due to the increasing supply pressure and relatively weak demand. According to the monitoring of business news agency, adipic acid in East China fell by 4.2% in April, and the price range of adipic acid at the end of the month was 10700-11200 yuan / ton.

In terms of market supply, in April, adipic acid maintained a high level of operating rate, enterprises gradually accumulated inventory, and inventory pressure was greater. As the market entered the off-season, the speed of delivery decreased significantly, so it was inevitable for enterprises to reduce the price and remove inventory. From the point of view of dealers, during the first two high prices, dealers hoarded a large number of goods. In April, the market turned down, and inventory was generally cleared, which further forced enterprises to reduce prices and ship goods.

Pure benzene market trend chart

In terms of cost, pure benzene and adipic acid went out of a completely different trend in April. According to the monitoring of business news agency, pure benzene rose by 14.2% this month, but the rising cost did not drive the price of adipic acid to warm up. On the one hand, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers are still in a reasonable zone; Moreover, the factors affecting the price of adipic acid are more focused on the downstream demand, but the weak demand leads to the weak rise of adipic acid.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of downstream demand, from the perspective of downstream PA66 of adipic acid, according to the monitoring of business society, the market of PA66 continued to decline in April, with a monthly decline of 4.08% as of the 29th. The weak downstream demand has obvious impact on adipic acid.

In the later stage, the business community believes that adipic acid is still in the de inventory cycle, the price is easy to fall but difficult to rise, and the market supply pressure in the later stage is difficult to ease in the short term, which is mainly caused by the increase of shipping pressure of enterprises, the slowdown of downstream procurement, and the high price may lead to the accumulation of storage. It is expected that adipic acid may continue to adjust, and the range may continue to move down.

Zinc price trend

According to the data monitoring of business news agency, the zinc market rebounded in the second quarter, and the zinc price rose slightly in April. As of April 30, the average price of zinc was 21976.67 yuan / ton, up 1.12% compared with the price of 21733.33 yuan / ton on April 1 at the beginning of the month.

Manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the purchasing manager index (PMI) of China’s manufacturing industry in April was 51.1%, 0.8 percentage points lower than that of last month, and still higher than the critical point. The manufacturing industry continued to expand. But raw material inventory index, employee index and supplier delivery time index are lower than the critical point. The strength of production expansion of manufacturing industry has weakened, the expansion of market demand of manufacturing industry has slowed down, the inventory of main raw materials of manufacturing industry has decreased compared with that of last month, and the employment prospect of manufacturing enterprises has declined. The overall macro-economy rose slowly, but the rise slowed down, and the macro-economy did not support the rise of zinc market.

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, in the first quarter of 2021, the GDP increased by 18.3% year on year and 0.6% month on month. It can be seen from the data that the GDP kept rising in the first quarter, but the growth rate slowed down. As a whole, there is still a certain gap according to the expected target. In the future, the economic stimulus plan of the country may be strengthened. The rapid recovery of national economy is conducive to the rise of zinc market, and it is expected that the price of zinc will rise in the future.

Zinc ingot inventory in main domestic markets

According to the statistical data, the domestic zinc market inventory decreased slowly after March, and the effect of zinc market destocking is remarkable, but the zinc market inventory has not reached the lowest point at the beginning of the year, the domestic zinc market inventory is still rising, and the zinc price has a certain rise support, but the zinc market is difficult to be crazy in February, and the zinc price is expected to rise slowly in the future.

Zinc processing fees remain low

In April, the domestic zinc concentrate processing fee was maintained at about 3700-4000 yuan / ton, which was the lowest level since September 18, and was even lower than 6500 yuan / ton in 20 years. Low processing fee forced zinc smelters to reduce their enthusiasm to start operation, and the output of zinc market decreased. Insufficient supply of zinc market or reverse stimulated the increase of zinc concentrate processing fee. Zinc ingot supply may increase in the future.

Domestic zinc monthly output

date Monthly output (10000 tons) Cumulative output (10000 tons) Year on year growth of the month Cumulative growth (%)

March 2021 fifty-five one hundred and sixty-two point eight ten point nine six point three

February 2021 – one hundred and seven point five two point eight

December 2020 sixty point two six hundred and forty-two point five – one point five two point seven

November 2020 fifty-eight five hundred and eighty-two point one – zero point seven three point one

October 2020 fifty-eight point six five hundred and twenty-four point two nine point three three

September 2020 fifty-six point five four hundred and sixty-five point six two point nine two point one

August 2020 fifty-three point nine four hundred and ten point nine five point one four point three

July 2020 fifty-two point four three hundred and fifty-six point nine – zero point two four point six

June 2020 fifty-two three hundred and four point eight one point two seven point seven

May 2020 fifty-one point four two hundred and fifty-two point seven four point five nine point one

April 2020 fifty-one point seven two hundred and one point three seven point three ten point seven

March 2020 forty-eight point nine one hundred and forty-nine point five four point seven eleven

February 2020 — one hundred and four — twelve point nine

December 2019 sixty point seven six hundred and twenty-three point six nineteen point five nine point two

November 2019 fifty-nine point four five hundred and sixty-nine point two thirteen point one nine

October 2019 fifty-four point eight five hundred and twelve point three eight point three nine point four

September 2019 fifty-four point eight four hundred and fifty-eight point three eighteen point nine nine point five

August 2019 fifty-two point eight four hundred and three point four eighteen point nine eight point two

July 2019 fifty-one point two three hundred and forty-three point eight seventeen point four six point one

June 2019 fifty-one point three two hundred and eighty-one point five ten point three two point three

May 2019 forty-eight two hundred and twenty-six point nine seven point four – zero point six

April 2019 forty-six point five one hundred and seventy-six point five – zero point four – four point four

March 2019 forty-five point three one hundred and thirty point six zero point four – five point one

February 2019 — eighty-five point one — – eight point two

According to the data released by the National Bureau of statistics, the monthly output of zinc city has increased significantly, and the output of zinc in the first quarter has increased significantly year on year. The supply of zinc city is sufficient, and the rising power of zinc city is limited.

Analysis summary and Prospect

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst at business news agency, believes that: in April, the zinc market continued the early period of zinc market destocking, and the zinc market has certain positive support, but the domestic zinc market’s monthly output rose, and the zinc market’s supply was sufficient. In terms of demand, the domestic economy rose slowly in the first quarter, the growth rate slowed down at the end of April, the overall macroeconomic growth slowed down, and the demand of zinc market was lower than expected. Generally speaking, the zinc ingot processing fee remains low, the zinc ingot output is expected to rise lower, the national economic stimulus may be strengthened, the zinc market demand is expected to rise, the future zinc market is expected to rise, and the zinc price fluctuates.

Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business association, the DOP price fluctuated sharply in April and then stabilized. The overall DOP market fluctuated with the price of raw materials. As of April 29, the DOP price was 12150.00 yuan / ton, up 0.21% from April 25 last weekend, and 5.19% from April 1, 2015. In April, the plasticizer market generally rose, with the price of raw materials stable, the plasticizer Market stabilized.

Isooctanol tends to stabilize

It can be seen from the price trend chart of isooctanol that the price of isooctanol fluctuated sharply in April, the price of isooctanol stabilized at the end of the month, the cost of DOP raw materials stabilized in the future, the downward pressure of DOP still existed, and the upward momentum weakened. DOP market up support weakened.

Phthalic anhydride tends to be stable

From the trend chart of phthalic anhydride, it can be seen that the price of phthalic anhydride fluctuated and rose in April, the price of phthalic anhydride fell slightly at the end of the month, the price of raw material phthalic anhydride of DOP fell, the cost of DOP fell, the upward pressure of DOP weakened in the future, and the downward pressure still remained.

Market summary and future expectation

Bai Jiaxin, DOP data analyst of business news agency, believes that the price of raw materials phthalic anhydride and isooctanol fluctuated in April, which stimulated the fluctuation of plasticizer DOP market. At the end of April, the price of phthalic anhydride dropped slightly, the price of isooctanol stabilized, the cost of plasticizer DOP stabilized temporarily, and the rising power of plasticizer weakened. In the future, with the stable cost of raw materials, plasticizer Market passion is no longer, DOP market tends to be stable.

According to the data of the commodity list of the business society, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong has risen recently. On April 26, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1363.33 yuan / ton, and on April 28, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1370.00 yuan / ton, up 0.49%. The current price has increased by 7.59% month on month, and the current price has increased by 56.87% year on year.

As of April 28, the mainstream market price of formaldehyde in Central China was about 1356 yuan / ton, that in North China was 1305 yuan / ton, that in Northwest China was 1300 yuan / ton, and that in East China was 1339 yuan / ton. Recently, the atmosphere of formaldehyde market is general, and the market of formaldehyde is rising slightly.

Upstream methanol situation: methanol market is mainly rising, and the turnover of methanol market in Shandong Luzhong area increased by 30-40 yuan / ton, and 2430-2440 yuan / ton was sent to spot exchange. Methanol market negotiation price in southern Shandong increased by 80 yuan / ton to 2520-2530 yuan / ton. Linyi received the mainstream of local goods negotiation price to around 2520 yuan / ton and sent it to spot exchange, while the part of logistics goods offer price to around 2450 yuan / ton was sent to spot exchange. Shandong methanol Lubei market transaction reference price 2430 yuan / ton to spot. Methanol market continued to rise, forming support for formaldehyde.

At present, a new round of 20 day environmental protection inspection in China is coming to an end. The downstream plate production is expected to increase, and the demand for formaldehyde may rise. However, the price of upstream methanol is increased, the cost is increased, and the profit is reduced in theory. The atmosphere of formaldehyde manufacturers’ stock preparation is relatively general, and the formaldehyde market rises slightly.

Recently, the upstream raw material methanol market is on the rise, and the demand of downstream plate factories is acceptable, so the formaldehyde analysts of business society chemical branch expect that the price of formaldehyde in Shandong will mainly rise in the near future.