1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2157 yuan/ton, which is 0.74% lower than the reference average price of 2172 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In September, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fluctuated. As of September 30th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1810-1840 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1860-1880 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1830-1860 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 23, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant increase in September, with the largest increase being 1.12% in the week of September 9th.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains rigid procurement, and downstream purchases of urea are more cautious, with many low-priced transactions. At present, the market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has seen a slight increase in recent days. The demand for pre holiday stocking has increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in urea prices. It is expected that the domestic urea market will experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8520 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.02% compared to the beginning of this month (8607.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Downstream polyether new orders increase, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises is good, inventory is sufficient, and the price trend of epoxy propane market is fluctuating and consolidating.

Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has decreased. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6585.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is not smooth. Many adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the epoxy propane market is experiencing a situation of mixed ups and downs.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in mixed ups and downs of epoxy propane. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will be mainly volatile, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 27th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6900-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8800 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7400-7700 yuan/ton.

In mid to late September, the domestic PTA spot price stopped falling and stabilized. As of September 27th, the average spot price of PTA in East China was 4878 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.11% from September 23rd. The tense situation in the Middle East and the possibility of a resurgence in crude oil prices, coupled with a strong trend in international oil prices, have raised support for PTA costs. In addition, macroeconomic sentiment has improved, and the general rise in commodity markets has triggered resonance. Due to the unplanned shutdown of multiple PTA plants, prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

In terms of demand, the market has improved significantly, but the cautious atmosphere continues. After the Mid Autumn Festival, there has been an improvement, and the order volume has increased significantly. Starting from September 26th, a strong cold air will depart from Xinjiang and affect most parts of China from west to east. The maximum cooling range in northern regions can reach 10-12 ℃. After the cooling, the national temperature will hit a new low after the beginning of autumn on a large scale. Cooling weather can effectively stimulate the sales of seasonal clothing. In addition, the central bank’s monetary policy has expanded its measures, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and lowering the interest rate on existing housing loans, which is also conducive to unleashing consumption potential.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the willingness of filament enterprises to ship still exists, and it is expected that the filament market prices will remain stable and fluctuate in the short term, with rigid demand. In the future, attention needs to be paid to the trend of the raw material market and the issuance of downstream orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in mid September, the filament market lacked strong positive momentum, resulting in weak market prices and a new low for the year. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price of 6900-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price of 8500-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price of 7500-7800 yuan/ton.

In mid to late September, the domestic PTA spot price stopped falling and stabilized. As of September 20th, the average spot price of PTA in East China was 4811 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from the beginning of the week. The international oil price trend is relatively strong, providing upward support for PTA costs. In addition, the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, and the general rise in commodity markets has triggered resonance. Due to the unplanned shutdown of multiple PTA plants, prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

Entering the traditional peak season of “Golden September”, the market was not as enthusiastic as expected, and weak demand led to a setback in market confidence. As a result, the operating rate of the polyester industry was adjusted to around 85%. As the summer heat gradually subsides, the operating rate of downstream industries is steadily recovering, and fabric orders for autumn and winter seasons are slowly opening up, showing an overall slow recovery trend. However, downstream textile enterprises have generally reported a significant decrease in the actual number of orders received compared to previous years, coupled with unfavorable fluctuations in raw material costs, leading to increasingly fierce competition within the entire textile market. In this environment, the bargaining space for fabric orders has been significantly compressed, and textile enterprises are facing unprecedented cost pressures, with profit margins severely squeezed. Tight cash flow has become a norm, forcing companies to adopt a more cautious attitude when accepting new orders to avoid potential operational risks

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the willingness of filament enterprises to ship still exists, and it is expected that the center of gravity of the filament market will continue to decline in the short term. However, due to the existence of rigid demand, prices will mainly fluctuate in a stable manner. In the future, we need to pay attention to the trend of the raw material market and the issuance of downstream orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 16th to 20th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2401 yuan/ton to 2410 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.35% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.70%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.10%. Domestic methanol production continues to rise, and some methanol production enterprises have pre holiday inventory demand. However, downstream and trading companies have a generally wait-and-see attitude towards restocking, with production enterprises mainly lowering their quotations and shipping. The domestic methanol market atmosphere is average.

As of the close on September 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2411 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2412 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2376 yuan/ton. It closed at 2382 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 3% or 0.13% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 550688 lots, the position was 791242 lots, and the daily increase was 21019.

As of September 20th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2120-2140 yuan/ton

Liaoning region/ 2740 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2355 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2230 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

On the cost side, the sales situation of coal mines is average, and some coal mines with high inventory pressure have begun to slightly lower the prices at the pit mouth. With the stable prices of large coal enterprises’ external purchases, local coal plants and traders have a relatively calm sentiment towards the future market, and the prices at the production site have remained stable overall. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; The mainstream chloride factories in East China have a parking and maintenance plan, which reduces the demand for methanol; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; There is currently no plan to stop driving formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, Shandong equipment maintenance; Inner Mongolia installation restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 19th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $345.00- $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 349.50-350.50 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 345.00-346.00 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 108.00 to 109.00 cents per gallon/ 1 cent/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 349.50-350.50 euros/ton/ -0.5 euros/ton

Market forecast shows sufficient supply and strong willingness of factories to ship before the holiday; In terms of demand, traditional downstream profits are average, and there is limited room for further demand growth. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.

This week, the dichloromethane market started to rise and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 18th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2685 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.65%.

The raw material cost has limited market support, and this week the focus of methanol has shifted upwards, while the liquid chlorine market has rebounded from a low level; The operating rate of the methane chloride unit has slightly decreased, and the focus of the dichloromethane market has shifted upward before the holiday. As the holiday approaches, the downstream stocking and receiving situation is average, and the shipment volume of enterprises has significantly decreased, leading to a rapid increase in inventory. Returning after the holiday, the overall market demand is mainly following suit, and manufacturers have lowered prices one after another to increase market activity. As of September 18th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2670-2700 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Domestic production of methane chloride is stable with some fluctuations.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the market for methanol raw materials has fluctuated narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 18th, the spot price of methanol was 2401.67 yuan/ton, with a shift in focus this week, but a 3.16% decrease from the beginning of the month. The price of liquid chlorine rebounded at a low level, with average shipments from enterprises and a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market.

In terms of demand: Dichloromethane has a wide range of applications and plays an important role in various industries. The popularity of double section replenishment procurement is average, and overall essential procurement is the main focus. An increase of 35000 tons of R32 domestic production quota will be issued for downstream refrigerants, corresponding to a 25% increase in the existing domestic production quota for R32 by 2024. This will alleviate the tight supply situation in the market and provide support for the dichloromethane market.

Business analysts believe that the demand for replenishment after the holiday has not yet started, and the short-term price of dichloromethane is consolidating. Before the National Day holiday, the focus of the dichloromethane market may rebound and move upward.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market this week is 15750 yuan/ton, and the market is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is temporarily stable this week. The price of titanium concentrate on raw materials remains weak and stable, while the price of sulfuric acid has declined. At present, domestic titanium dioxide manufacturers’ quotations are mainly stable, while traders’ quotations are relatively flexible. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and actual orders are cautious, with average trading conditions. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15400-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-14500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the titanium concentrate market in the Panxi region is operating weakly and steadily. At present, the spot market is mainly operating in a stalemate. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market and weak market conditions, with few inquiries for titanium ore, maintaining demand. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1570-1620 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2270-2300 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to remain stagnant, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is currently stable this week, with average trading on the market. The downstream market demand is average, so it’s better to wait and see. It is expected that the market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the price of PET water bottles continued to decline this week. As of September 9th, the average market price has been adjusted to 6362 yuan per ton.

In terms of the raw material market, a series of core economic data released this week appear quite bleak, triggering deep concerns among investors about the weakening of the growth momentum of US consumer spending, and subsequently leading to a pessimistic attitude towards the growth prospects of US oil consumption demand. At the same time, there are multiple negative news coming from the market: the possibility of Libyan crude oil supply returning to the international stage, as well as expectations that OPEC+organizations may start increasing oil production, these factors are intertwined, exacerbating the unfavorable macro atmosphere. Affected by the continuous negative macro news, international crude oil prices experienced a sharp decline this week, which directly put heavy pressure on the polyester sector and led to its overall weak performance. As of September 8th, the average price of PTA in China was 5012 yuan/ton, a decrease of more than 800 yuan/ton from the average price of 5830 yuan/ton in the East China market on August 1st, which failed to provide effective cost support for the PET market. The cost support of PET is average, market demand is weak, and trading activity has significantly decreased, which in turn has led to a further decline in the focus of PET futures and spot prices.

On the supply side, on the one hand, there are significant expectations for the expansion of new production capacity, including the upcoming production of the 750000 ton/year project of Xingye Plastics and the 500000 ton/year project of Yizheng Petrochemical. In addition, three sets of equipment that were originally under maintenance are expected to restart, and it is expected that PET supply will increase significantly in September. On the other hand, with the high temperatures in summer and the end of student holidays, people’s travel activities have significantly decreased, directly affecting the consumption of terminal soft drinks and catering industries, thereby reducing the demand for PET materials. The pessimistic market atmosphere has further intensified the downward pressure on the polyester bottle chip market, with prices frequently falling. Under the risk of continuously shrinking inventory value, industry participants generally adopt more conservative strategies and are more cautious in placing orders, resulting in a significant slowdown in order volume growth. At the same time, the increasing number of trade barriers worldwide has also set new obstacles for the export of polyester bottle flakes, making it difficult to reach new highs.

In summary, the current PET market has a sharp supply-demand contradiction, with increased supply and weak demand, coupled with export obstacles, putting heavy upward pressure on the absolute price of the PET market. The market trend tends to be cautious and unstable.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 2nd to 5th, MTBE prices fell from 6110 yuan/ton to 5975 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 2.21% during the period, a month on month drop of 11.15%, and a year-on-year drop of 24.61%. The international crude oil market is increasingly concerned about weak global demand, with international oil prices falling to the lowest point of the year. At the same time, rigid demand for gasoline is gradually declining with the end of summer vacation. In addition, the negative impact of the decline in crude oil prices has increased the price drop. MTBE, as a gasoline raw material, cannot escape the downward trend. Although some manufacturers have reduced their production, the situation of MTBE oversupply is still evident, and the overall domestic MTBE market trend is clearly declining.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: the market’s concerns about the economic and demand prospects continue to ferment, and the problem of Libyan crude oil supply disruptions is expected to recover. As of September 5th, the settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract was $72.69 per barrel.

On the demand side, in terms of downstream gasoline terminal demand, terminal demand has weakened after the end of summer, and retail gas station shipments have returned to stability. Gas station merchants mostly maintain median inventory for procurement and sales, and large orders are not easy to transact. Operators may purchase MTBE or maintain small orders on demand. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by bearish factors.

Supply side: Some manufacturers have reduced their production, and there is an expectation of reduced resource supply. The short-term domestic MTBE supply is affected by favorable factors.

As of the close on September 5th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $6.5/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at $700.99-702.99/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $19/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $835.49-835.99/ton. The closing price of the MTBE market in the United States decreased by $12.78 per ton compared to the previous trading day, and the FOB Gulf offshore price closed at $832.57-832.93 per ton (234.53-234.63 cents per gallon).

In the future forecast, due to the continuous poor shipments from manufacturers, inventory has accumulated, and the positive support for demand is limited. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will continue to consolidate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the domestic PTA spot market fluctuated and declined in August. As of August 30th, the average price of PTA in the East China region was 5383 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.68% from the beginning of the month. Despite some unplanned short-term shutdowns of PTA facilities during the month, the operating rate remained high and demand remained weak. Overall, PTA’s supply remained abundant, with strong expectations for inventory accumulation. The cooling of the geopolitical situation on the cost side has reduced market concerns about crude oil supply, leading to a wide decline in international crude oil prices and weakened support for PTA costs.

Looking at the future market, the current operating rate of the domestic PTA industry is around 86%. Two sets of PTA plants with a total capacity of 3.4 million tons are scheduled for maintenance in September, and there are currently no plans to restart the plants. In addition, the downstream is about to enter the seasonal peak season for polyester, and the demand for PTA may gradually rebound. Overall, the supply and demand structure of PTA may be improved, and the speed of inventory accumulation may slow down.

On the cost side of the international crude oil market, as of August 28th, the settlement price of the main contract for WTI crude oil futures in the United States was $74.52 per barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract for Brent crude oil futures was $77.58 per barrel. At present, geopolitical instability continues to affect the market, with the traditional peak season in the United States coming to an end, coupled with poor economic data performance, the crude oil market is mainly volatile. The cost support for PX is limited, and the supply is at a high level. Some units have maintenance plans in September, which provides some support for PX prices.

On the demand side, the current downstream polyester industry operating rate is around 83%, and there is an expectation of the traditional peak season for polyester consumption, known as the “Golden September and Silver October”. Some polyester plants will restart in September, and the operating rate will slightly increase, which will lead to a rebound in PTA demand. Terminal reloading and weaving operations will also gradually rebound, with orders being placed one after another and approaching the replenishment cycle. Raw materials or appropriate replenishment will be required.

Business analysts believe that in the short term, international crude oil on the cost side is expected to fluctuate and stabilize, providing support for PTA costs. PTA plant shutdown maintenance helps alleviate supply pressure. In addition, some polyester plants will restart, and the demand for PTA will slightly rebound. Therefore, with a slight improvement in fundamentals, PTA prices are expected to fluctuate and stabilize in September.