Baking soda, also known as sodium bicarbonate, is an inorganic salt with small white crystals. It is a white crystalline powder, odorless, and easily soluble in water. It slowly decomposes in humid or hot air, producing carbon dioxide, and completely decomposes when heated to 270 ° C. When exposed to acid, it strongly decomposes and produces carbon dioxide, which is commonly used in fermentation powders. Its aqueous solution is weakly alkaline and does not cause pollution to daily water. The powder can also be used as a natural lubricating powder, as well as a detergent or blending agent, easily removing oil stains on stainless steel items and stains on clothing. It has a wide range of uses.
According to the Commodity Analysis System of Business Society, the overall price of baking soda has increased in 2023. The average market price at the beginning of the year was 2530 yuan/ton, and the average market price at the end of the year was 2688 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 6.25%.
Take a look at the monthly K-bar chart of baking soda. From the chart, it can be seen that baking soda will rise for 4 months and fall for 8 months in 2023.
Take a look at the annual price comparison chart of baking soda. From the chart, it can be seen that the overall price of baking soda in 2023 has been operating at a median level recently (2021-2023).
Let’s take a look at the specific price trend. From the beginning of the year to early June, prices have been declining, from early June to late August, prices have been consolidating, from late August to early October, prices have risen, prices have fallen after the National Day holiday, from October 7th to December 10th, prices have been in an upward trend, and then until the end of the year, prices have been consolidating.
From the beginning of the year to early June, prices have been continuously declining, mainly due to the weak operation of upstream soda ash prices, and the overall trading atmosphere is average. Downstream demand for soda ash is average, and more purchases are still made on demand, with a strong wait-and-see attitude. The supply and demand game between upstream and downstream has led market participants to have a strong bearish attitude towards the future. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in weak baking soda prices. From early June to late August, prices have been showing a consolidation trend, mainly due to the consolidation of upstream soda ash prices. Some soda ash enterprises have undergone maintenance, and the supply of soda ash is slightly tight. The overall trading atmosphere is still good, with downstream replenishment of soda ash and supply-demand competition. It is expected that the strong operation of soda ash prices will be the main trend in the later stage. Downstream industries such as pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food have a high demand for baking soda through on-demand procurement, resulting in a consolidation of baking soda prices.
From late August to early October, prices have risen, and the price of baking soda has been running strong recently. On the one hand, baking soda manufacturers have been experiencing tight supply recently, and on the other hand, the upstream raw material of baking soda, soda ash, has been experiencing a strong upward trend recently. Finally, downstream baking soda has seen good demand in areas such as medicine, textiles, and food. From October 7th to December 10th, prices have been on an upward trend. The upstream raw material, soda ash, has recently shown a strong market trend, while the downstream demand for baking soda, including pharmaceuticals, textiles, and food, has been slightly better than in the previous period. The price of baking soda is mainly improving. From December 10th to the end of the year, the price of baking soda stabilized, and the market for raw materials such as soda ash has recently fluctuated. Downstream pharmaceutical, textile, and food industries such as baking soda have been mainly purchased on demand.
How will the price of baking soda develop in 2024, despite the weak fluctuations in baking soda prices in 2023?
In terms of supply: In terms of changes in the production capacity and operating rate of baking soda in China, the production capacity and output of baking soda in the downstream food, industry, and feed industries continue to expand against the backdrop of continuous growth in demand.
In terms of demand: In terms of the price trend of baking soda in China, the price of baking soda is greatly affected by fluctuations in the prices of upstream main raw materials such as soda ash. The supply side will maintain a relaxed situation, and the production of soda ash will continue to increase in 2024. The inventory will also exceed 3 million tons or about 4 million tons. Glass has a rigid demand for soda ash, and the price in the second half of the year may be better than that in the first half of the year.
In terms of import and export: Domestic baking soda production capacity accounts for about 40% of global production capacity, and the export volume is significantly higher than the import volume. In terms of the overall changes in the import and export volume of baking soda in China, with the continuous growth of domestic demand for high-end baking soda, the import volume continues to grow. Although there is still a significant gap compared to exports, the main reason is that with the tightening of domestic environmental policies, desulfurization and denitrification have increased the amount of baking soda used, resulting in a continuous increase in overall import demand.
Business Society analysts believe that the supply of baking soda continues to expand, and downstream soda ash will still have 2.6 million new production capacity in 2024, indicating a continued demand for baking soda. The economy is recovering, and downstream trade unions for baking soda have resumed, which may increase demand for baking soda. Now that the Spring Festival is approaching and downstream demand for baking soda is nearing its end, the price of baking soda has not fluctuated much. After the year, as the weather warms up, the price of baking soda will increase. Overall, it is expected that the price of baking soda will be better in the second half of 2023 than in the first half, depending on downstream market demand.