Author Archives: lubon

Crude benzene prices fell this week (1.13-1.17)

1、 Price trend:

 

On January 19, crude benzene commodity index was 73.60, flat with yesterday, down 44.17% from 131.84 (2013-01-28), the highest point in the cycle, and up 87.52% from 39.25, the lowest point on December 22, 2014. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

 

2、 Market analysis:

 

Domestic market: this week’s pure benzene is in a weak position. This week is the last trading week before the festival. Coking enterprises have a strong willingness to ship, but the traffic situation is relatively severe. Most coking enterprises’ prices are down. This week’s bidding price of crude benzene enterprises is down. The downstream hydrogenated benzene enterprises are generally under construction, which has a great impact on logistics. As of Friday, the price of crude benzene in Shandong fell slightly to 4600 yuan / ton left Right, 50 yuan / ton lower than last week.

 

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Industry chain: crude oil: this week, oil prices fell in shock. Early in the week, the impact of tensions in the Middle East subsided, and the focus of the market turned to the impact of the surge in US oil product inventories. On Wednesday morning, the United States and China signed the first stage trade agreement, which was good for oil prices, and oil prices began to pick up. WTI fell 0.7% and Brent 3.78% compared to January 10. Pure benzene: near the Spring Festival, the port stock of pure benzene has accumulated. With the completion of downstream replenishment of inventory, the completion of traders’ replenishment of empty space and insufficient crude oil support, the operation of pure benzene is weak this week. Downstream: styrene price is stable this week compared with last week. Due to the downstream stock up before the festival, the shipment of aniline was smooth, and the price was increased by 1.56% compared with last week. Most of the downstream products of pure benzene are in the loss of theoretical production and lack of support for the price of pure benzene.

 

3、 Trend Forecast:

 

With the approaching of the Spring Festival holiday, the delivery volume of coke enterprises has increased, but due to the impact of logistics and transportation, the overall transaction situation is general, and the market price before the festival is difficult to fluctuate greatly.

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The downstream prepared orders of aniline this week before the festival, the price went up 1.56% (January 13-17, 2020)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the data in the business club’s large list, the price of aniline in Shandong Province rose 200 yuan / ton this week, and the market price of aniline in Shandong Province on Friday was 6400 yuan / ton, 3.23% higher than that on Friday; the price of aniline in Nanjing region rose 100 yuan / ton this week, and the market price on Friday was 6800 yuan / ton, 1.49% higher than that on Friday.

 

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2、 Analysis and comment

 

Raw materials: this week’s pure benzene is weak, and the price is 5600-5950 yuan / ton on Friday. Near the Spring Festival, the port inventory of pure benzene has accumulated. With the completion of downstream replenishment of inventory, the completion of traders’ replenishment of empty space and insufficient crude oil support, the operation of pure benzene is weak this week.

 

Nitric acid edged down this week, down 1.04%.

 

Product: this week, in the event of the downstream pre Festival stock up, the aniline enterprise’s shipment is smooth, the inventory pressure is released, and the price is increased. In the second half of the week, the downstream stock slowed down, and the aniline factory mainly stabilized the price and delivered goods.

 

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3、 Future expectation

 

Raw materials: some factories put styrene into production in the later stage, which has a certain positive support for the demand for pure benzene. However, the announcement of the latest Sino US trade agreement raised industry concerns about the inflow of styrene from the United States. The market price of styrene has a downside risk, which is bad for the pure benzene market. It is expected that the price of pure benzene will be lower in the later period.

 

The downstream stock up is basically over, and the aniline shipment volume is back to normal. Considering the approaching Spring Festival, the market is going to have holidays one after another, the pace of trading slows down, and the price fluctuation is limited. It is expected that aniline will run stably next week.

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On January 17, the price of silicon metal (441 yuan) remained stable

1. Trade name: silicon metal (441 × 3)

 

2. Latest price (January 17, 2020): 11858.33 yuan / ton

 

The price of 441 × silicon in each region is as follows:

 

The price range of metal silicon in Fujian is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, in Sichuan is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, in Kunming is 11600-11700 yuan / ton, in Shanghai is 12400-12600 yuan / ton, in Tianjin port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton, in Huangpu port is 11900-12100 yuan / ton 。

 

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3. Analysis points:

 

Near the Spring Festival, the trading volume is fading, the overall trading volume of silicon metal is moving down, and the market average price is mainly stable. At the end of the factory, the desire to receive orders fell before the year; the buyer’s early stocking operation was near the end; in addition, transport vehicles in various regions were hard to find, and the metal silicon gradually entered the spring festival atmosphere.

 

4. Future forecast: close to the Spring Festival, coupled with tight freight, it is expected that the short-term stable and strong operation of silicon metal will prevail.

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Potassium sulphate market is still hard to change

1、 Price trend

 

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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This week, the domestic potassium sulfate Market was on the sidelines, with low market turnover enthusiasm and stable start-up. The operating rate of the potassium sulphate industry in Mannheim, Hebei Province is about 70%, which is temporarily stable. The mainstream quotation is also maintaining stability at a virtual high level. 50% of the powder is 2600 yuan / ton, 50% of the particles and 52% of the total water-soluble powder is 2700 yuan / ton. When the actual transaction is completed, there is no small space for large order preferential. In South China, 50% of the main stream of powder is priced at 2700-2850 yuan / ton, and 52% of the main stream of powder is priced at 2800-2950 yuan / ton, all of which are negotiated separately.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of business association, the demand in winter is relatively small, the downstream operating rate is affected by the weather relatively low, the price is weak, the market transaction is relatively cold, and the low market of potassium sulphate is still difficult to change in the short term.

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Market price of chloroform continued to weaken this week (1.6-1.10)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the price of chloroform in Shandong continued to decline this week, with the average price at the beginning of the week at about 2200 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week at 2100 yuan / ton, down 4.55% in the week.

 

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2、 Cause analysis

 

Product reason: due to the traditional off-season of trichloromethane market, the downstream demand is flat, and the demand side support is insufficient. Although the overall inventory of the market is low, it is still unable to prevent the weak operation of trichloromethane price. At present, the regional quotation is about 2100 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen’s quotation is about 3050 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu’s quotation is about 3400 yuan / ton.

 

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the methanol market continues to be strong, with local strength. At present, it is about 2195 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is stable, moderate and volatile, and the downstream demand is flat. At present, it is about 300-450 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the domestic refrigerant market is in short supply and the downstream stock is picking up, and the weekly price is slightly higher; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on January 9, 2020, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are glycol (6.93%), ammonium chloride (5.09%) and DMF (4.29%). There are 6 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were bisphenol A (- 4.40%), epichlorohydrin (- 2.73%) and potassium sulfate (- 0.90%).

 

3、 Future forecast

 

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, it is in the off-season of chloroform, with low inventory of enterprises and poor downstream demand. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, it is expected to operate in a weak way in the short term.

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The price of DME in China’s domestic market rose broadly this week (1.5-1.10)

1、 Price trend

 

The domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) rose continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3083.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3146.67 yuan / ton, up 2.05% in the week, 12.02% lower than the same period last year.

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Product: the trading atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market on Tuesday is good. As of January 10, devices such as Hebei Yutai, Henan lankaohuitong and Shanxi Lanhua technology venture Co., Ltd. had been shut down for maintenance; there was no quotation for the failure of the new dimethyl ether device in Henan Yima. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan Province is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3290 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan company is 3520 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 3350 yuan / ton.

 

On Tuesday, the market of methyl ether rose in general, especially in Henan. The market operating rate continues to decrease. At present, the operating rate is at a low level and the overall market supply is reduced. This week, the methanol market increased significantly, the liquefied gas market continued to rise, the gas ether gap continued to open, the downstream bullish mentality was obvious, the main purchase into the market, the overall shipment of manufacturers was relatively smooth, the mentality was strong, and the prices were continuously increased. In the later stage, due to the sharp fall of international crude oil, the market was constrained to go up, and the enthusiasm for entering the market in the lower reaches turned to be weak, and the price subsequently stabilized, with some manufacturers slightly reducing the price.

 

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Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (5.24%), fuel oil (3.70%) and dimethyl ether (2.05%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 6.45%), WTI (- 5.54%) and Brent (- 4.71%). This week’s average was – 0.69%.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

Dimethyl ether analysts believe that at present, the international crude oil has been lowered, which has some impact on the market. The terminal demand is limited. With the completion of a new round of replenishment in the downstream market, the main consumption inventory is delisting. However, at present, liquefied gas is at a high level, which supports the market to a certain extent. It is expected that the future market will be adjusted in the short term or sideways.

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Market price of antimony ingot fell this week (1.06-1.10)

1、 Price trend

 

The antimony commodity index on January 10 was 53.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.45% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.45% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

Upstream and downstream: on Wednesday, the price of antimony oxide fell with the trend of antimony ingot. As of Friday, the average price of antimony oxide was 99.5% at 33500 yuan / ton, and 99.8% at 36000 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials: the delivery and investment of mining enterprises are light, some mines are still shut down for maintenance in winter, and the delivery and investment are limited, and most mines are shut down for maintenance or suspend the delivery quotation.

 

Domestic market: the antimony ingot market fell this week, mainly due to the approaching of Spring Festival, the approaching of holidays for most manufacturers, the impending suspension of logistics and transportation, the end of downstream stock up ahead of time, and a significant decline in market volume. In terms of price, as of Friday, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots is 37000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots is 37500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots is 38500 yuan / ton, and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots is 34500 yuan / ton.

 

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Nonferrous Industry: this week, the market shrouded in the risk sentiment brought about by the US Iraq conflict. Crude oil and gold soared, and nonferrous metals were passively pressured, first suppressed and then raised. As the United States announced to replace the full-scale war with economic sanctions, the risk aversion mood was eased, and the low metal level gradually picked up.

 

3、 Future prospects

 

Next week will usher in the first round of signing the Sino US trade agreement. There are a lot of data in the United States, and it is expected that the U.S. dollar will still have room to continue to recover. China will face the delivery of the 2001 contract. With the delivery for another month, downstream consumption will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday mode, and consumption will obviously turn weak, and basic metals will fall under pressure after surging. From next week, it will be closed in recent years. Most manufacturers will have a holiday. The market is light and the price is stable.

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China’s domestic BDO market price at high level (12.30-1.3)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of January 3, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9756 yuan / ton, with a 1.25% increase on a month on month basis and a 3.17% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

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Product: this week, the focus of domestic BDO market is high. The factory and traders all reflect the tight spot supply in the market. Some of the main factories led by Merck announced the listing price in January and controlled the delivery, showing a clear intention to support the market. BDO industry continues to promote Linked Settlement and marketing, but there is strong resistance in the main downstream, some long-term negotiations are stranded, waiting for more clear information guidance. Sinopec’s catalyst replacement unit was restarted, and Tunhe phase II was successfully commissioned on December 30. Before the load of each factory was reduced, the market supply might increase, and the industry’s wait-and-see mood will rise again. After entering January, although BDO plant has plans to reduce its load, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance before the Spring Festival, and the demand will gradually turn weak, and the game between the supplier and the demander will continue.

 

In terms of devices, this week, Tianye’s first phase 30000 ton device is in normal operation, and the second phase two 60000 ton devices will be restarted in February 2020; black cat will be restarted on December 20, with recent products; Chongqing Jianfeng will be shut down for maintenance on December 15, with an estimated one month; Sinopec’s first device will be replaced with catalyst; Tunhe second phase 100000 ton device will be successfully commissioned on December 30. In January, MEC, Tunhe, Kaixiang, Dongyuan and Shanhua had plans to reduce the burden. This week, the overall market operating rate is about 69.2%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

 

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the domestic methanol market rose slightly this week, with a good trading atmosphere. The delivery price of the Northern Line in Inner Mongolia is concentrated at 1730-1760 yuan / ton, and that of some enterprises of the southern line is reported to 1780 yuan / ton, so the inventory reduction of enterprises is smooth. The mainstream prices in Guanzhong region increased by 20-30 yuan / ton to 1780-1880 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange. The downstream and traders entered the market actively to make up for the vacancy. Most of the main enterprises have no inventory and sell with production, mainly in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shandong and other regions. Xinjiang, Ningxia and other regions rose 30 yuan / ton, Baofeng still maintained a high level of foreign mining in the week, and the market trading was smooth. In terms of units, the production of the two 300000 ton units in Huating, Gansu Province was resumed on December 31, with a total daily production increment of 2000 tons. After the second phase methanol feeding test run in Yulin Yankuang, it has entered the maintenance state, which has little impact on the market.

 

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Calcium carbide: this week, domestic calcium carbide price is mainly stable with a slight increase. Wuhai area and Ningxia area deliver goods smoothly with low inventory. This week, the factory price is mainly stable. The situation of short supply makes the calcium carbide manufacturers more bullish, waiting for the downstream purchasing manufacturers to increase. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the weak market of Lancan in Shaanxi Province has declined, civil procurement has come to an end, and large material market transactions have declined. At the same time, the downstream construction of calcium carbide did not improve significantly, and the inventory pressure of small and medium-sized materials of manufacturers was on the high side. About 800-860 yuan / ton for large materials, 680-720 yuan / ton for medium materials and 650-700 yuan / ton for small materials. At this stage, the arrival of downstream purchasing manufacturers is not regional. Up to now, only Henan region is restricted by goods to increase the purchase price, and the supply of goods from other regions is still enough to support production, mainly with a wait-and-see attitude. Near the Spring Festival, the supply of goods transportation, weather problems may have some impact on the price change, but the trend of domestic calcium carbide price rise has been determined, and it is expected that the price of calcium carbide will be slightly increased next week.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

At present, the domestic BDO industry has entered a critical period of transformation of the old and new sales modes, and some downstream enterprises have strong resistance to the hanging settlement mode. Following the release of January load reduction news from BDO plant, some downstream companies want to follow up the production reduction, and the game between the supplier and the demander continues. Sinopec’s overhaul unit has been restarted, Tunhe phase II test run has been successful, the market supply may increase, the industry’s wait-and-see mood is gradually rising, and the January delivery time is relatively short, the downstream demand gradually turns weak, some of the long-term requirements have not been implemented. Before a consensus on hanging settlement was reached in the upstream and downstream markets, BDO analysts of the business agency predicted that the domestic BDO market would wait and sort out next week, focusing on the device dynamics and marketing issues.

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Sulfuric acid price in Shandong rose slightly this week (12.30-1.3)

1、 Price trend

 

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 293.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 306.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Up 4.55%, down 2.13% year on year. Overall, sulfuric acid rose slightly this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 47.73 on January 3

 

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2、 Market analysis

 

(1) Products:

 

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose slightly, the inventory of manufacturers was small, and the downstream demand was average. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 260 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 210 yuan / ton, which is also 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

 

(2) Industrial chain:

 

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In the near future, the domestic sulfur market has stopped falling and maintained stability. The downstream monoammonium market is generally traded in a light manner, and the new order transaction is not ideal. The market for diammonium is also low and consolidated. The downstream demand is less. Sulfuric acid enterprises have more early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price stopped falling and remained stable, while the downstream construction started generally, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business and social sulfuric acid, the short-term market in Shandong is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

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The market of activated carbon is lack of good factors, and the price is down (12.30-1.3)

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11283 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11266 yuan / ton, down 0.15%.

 

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon continues to fluctuate and decline. At present, the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7200-12000 yuan / ton; the price of domestic activated carbon is mainly for maintaining stability, and the factory basically follows the previous orders.

 

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Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy promotes the activated carbon market. The downstream factories purchase goods according to the demand, and the market transaction is light.

 

Forecast: the downstream of activated carbon is still cold, and the market lacks good support. It is expected that the short-term activated carbon market will not improve greatly, and the overall market may be dominated by shock consolidation.

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