Recently, the acrylic acid market has shown an overall trend of range consolidation, with the game between supply and demand becoming the core factor driving price trends. As of August 18th, the benchmark price of acrylic acid in Shengyi Society was 6200.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 6.77% compared to the beginning of this month (6650.00 yuan/ton).
Supply side:
From the supply side, some production facilities entered the maintenance phase in August, but at the same time, other enterprises have made up for the gap by increasing production load. The overall operating rate of the industry has remained at a level of 70% -80%, and there has been no significant fluctuation in market supply. In terms of inventory, as most companies adopt a strategy of production based on sales, social inventory has not significantly accumulated, and some manufacturers still maintain a strong willingness to raise prices. However, imported goods from Southeast Asia and other regions have gradually arrived at the port, supplementing the market supply to a certain extent and limiting the room for price increases.
Demand side:
The demand side performance is relatively flat, and downstream industry procurement is mainly based on rigid demand, lacking strong incremental support. Specifically, the demand for acrylic products such as adhesives and coatings has been affected by the slow recovery of the real estate and infrastructure industries, resulting in a relatively weak performance; The field of superabsorbent resin (SAP) has performed well due to stable demand for hygiene products, but export orders have limited growth due to the sluggish overseas economy; The demand for textile auxiliaries and other application fields also lacks highlights. Downstream enterprises have a low acceptance of high priced goods, and their purchasing mentality is cautious. Market transactions are mainly small and medium-sized orders, making it difficult to drive prices up significantly.
In terms of cost, the ex factory price in East China remains around 6000-6200 yuan/ton, which can still provide cost support for acrylic acid. However, due to the significant drop in the price of acrylic acid (the mainstream price in East China is about 7800-8000 yuan/ton) compared to the beginning of the year, the profit margin of non integrated production enterprises has been compressed to near the cost line, and the space for further price reduction is relatively limited, which also makes the market bottom support relatively stable.
Affected by the unexpected parking of the main PDH, triggering a strong rebound in propylene prices. Recently, the northern propylene market was disrupted by the parking news of a 750000 ton/year PDH plant, breaking the regional supply-demand balance pattern. The mainstream price in Shandong rebounded from 6300 yuan/ton to a high of 6565 yuan/ton, up 265 yuan (+4.20%) month on month, marking the largest weekly increase in recent times. As of August 18th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6570.75 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.14% compared to the beginning of this month (6433.25 yuan/ton). The current upward trend is dominated by sudden supply contraction, but downstream resistance and potential supply growth will constrain the upward space, and the combination of long and short factors will put significant pressure on the upper side.
Looking ahead to the future, the acrylic acid market may continue to maintain a range consolidation pattern in the short term, driven by both upward and downward factors. If the infrastructure stimulus policies are intensified or overseas demand rebounds in the second half of the year, there may be marginal improvement in the demand side of acrylic acid, which will drive up prices slightly; If the new production capacity is put into operation as scheduled or downstream demand continues to be sluggish, the market may face certain downward pressure. In addition, fluctuations in raw material propylene and energy prices, adjustments in manufacturers’ inventory strategies, and speculative sentiment among traders will also have a significant impact on market trends. Overall, in the absence of a clear unilateral driving force, the price of acrylic acid is expected to fluctuate within the range of 6000-6400 yuan/ton.