According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the domestic market price of BDO was 9360 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week, rising by 0.86% annually, and falling by 18.30% compared with the same period last year.
II. Market Analysis
Product: This week, the domestic BDO market continued to be weak and steady. At present, in addition to Dongyuan is still overhauling, other devices start to work steadily, the supply of goods is still acceptable. Main downstream PTMEG start-up load is maintained at 7-80%, PBT load is around 4-5%, contract consumption is slow; downstream spot just needs to be purchased. Hearing that this week’s new production capacity black cat sample has arrived, the confidence of the industry has been impacted, stable offer, waiting for more information guidance. In terms of price, the mainstream price in the East China market is 8600-9000 yuan/ton, which is unchanged from last week. This week, the domestic BDO market started at 54.2%, with a weekly output of about 22535 tons.
In terms of installation, this week, Xinjiang Tianye 210,000 tons/year BDO device, except for the first phase of normal operation, the restart time of other devices is uncertain; Henan Kaixiang 110,000 tons/year BDO device, due to the explosion of Yima, stopped on July 19 for safety checking, restart time is uncertain; Inner Mongolia Dongyuan 100,000 tons/year BDO device stopped for overhaul on August 13, and is expected to be 25,000 tons/year. Day or so.
On the market side, as of Friday (8.30), the BDO market in East China was weak. The factories have been operating steadily and the supply is still acceptable. The downstream demand is still weak, and the negotiation atmosphere is light and smooth towards the end of the month. The market range of BDO in South China is turbulent. The overall market supply is stable, the main downstream PBT and PTMEG start low, consumption is limited. Businessmen have an empty mind and operate smoothly.
Industry chain: raw materials, calcium carbide, domestic calcium carbide market this week showed mixed ups and downs, market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. Carbide shipments in Wuhai and Ningxia are smooth, affected by geological hazards in Sichuan, road transportation is limited, and enterprises in Sichuan are actively purchasing in Northwest China, resulting in low inventory in Ningxia. This week, the factory price rose narrowly. Chemicals overhaul in Shenyang, Northeast China, has led to an increase in the proportion of goods flowing to the North China market in the Wumeng region. At present, downstream enterprises have sufficient arrivals, and purchasing prices continue to decline in most areas. Overhaul of Inner Mongolia Yili and Shenyang Chemical Industry led to an increase in market calcium carbide balance, while procurement outside Sichuan accelerated consumption in the Northwest market, market supply and demand game, cautious wait-and-see. It is expected that there will be regional uneven cargo arrival in domestic carbide market next week. In September, the National Day security inspection will be strengthened, road transportation will be under pressure, and the carbide arrival is expected to be insufficient. In a word, the supply-demand game will be fierce next week. It is expected that market prices will continue to be weak.
Methanol: This week, the overall trend of methanol market is downward. At the beginning of the week, the mainstream price in Inner Mongolia is 1600 yuan/ton, the mainstream price in Guanzhong is 1800 yuan/ton. Most downstream and traders hold a wait-and-see attitude at the beginning of the week, and the shipment situation is general. On Tuesday, mainstream prices in Inner Mongolia fell to 1550-1580 yuan/ton for the second time, and mainstream prices in Guanzhong fell to 1700 yuan/ton for the second time. Manufacturers’sales improved significantly. Most enterprises on the southern line of Inner Mongolia stopped selling, and mainstream prices in the Northwest market maintained a narrow fluctuation in the second half of the week. At present, the port inventory remains high, and the basic weakness is difficult to overcome in the short term.
On the downstream side, PBT: Kaixiang, Henan, stopped on May 30 without a restart plan; Tunhe plant stopped on August 9, and is expected to be around a month.
3. Future Market Forecast
At present, raw materials are down narrowly and cost support is weakened. The market as a whole started stable. I heard that Dongyuan has a driving plan next week. The load may increase steadily. Although it is about to enter the traditional peak season, but the downstream has not improved expectations, still maintain low-level operation, just need to replenish the warehouse. At the same time, new capacity samples have arrived in the market to shock the mindset of the industry. Under the interweaving of multi-empty, business association BDO analysts expect that the domestic BDO market will be weak next week, paying more attention to device dynamics and downstream demand changes.