According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of December 2, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was 7500 yuan/ton, which was up 67 yuan/ton, or 0.90%, compared with November 28 (the reference price of n-butanol was 7433 yuan/ton).

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that this week (11.28-12.02), the n-butanol market in Shandong Province in China rose slightly. At the beginning of the week, the n-butanol market was operating steadily and steadily. At the middle of the week, the n-butanol plant was shut down for maintenance in some areas, and the on-site supply was expected to decrease. In addition, the rising raw propylene market this week gave the n-butanol cost support to be strengthened. On December 1, Some n-butanol factories in Shandong Province slightly raised the price of n-butanol by 200 yuan/ton. As of December 2, the market price of n-butanol in Shandong Province was around 7400-7600 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere of n-butanol in the plant is mild, and the downstream just needs to purchase.

Post market analysis of n-butanol

At present, the inquiry atmosphere in the n-butanol market is fair, and the downstream stock is mainly based on the quantity. The current supply side and the cost side give n-butanol some support, and the mentality of the industry is improving. The n-butanol data engineer of the business community believes that the n-butanol market may stabilize in the short term, but it is stronger. More attention should be paid to the specific information changes on the supply and demand side.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the domestic price of LLDPE (7042) was 8335 yuan/ton on November 1, and the average price was 8408 yuan/ton on November 30. The increase rate during this period was 0.87%, 0.48% higher than that on October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426H) was 9600 yuan/ton on November 1 and 9333 yuan/ton on November 30, with a drop of 2.78% during the period, down 6.48% compared with October 1.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) was 8366 yuan/ton on November 1, and 8400 yuan/ton on November 30, with an increase of 0.4% during the period, 0.2% lower than that on October 1.

In November, the spot price of the domestic polyethylene market rose and fell in various ways, among which LLDPE rose slightly in the first half of the month and operated in a narrow range in the second half; LDPE continuously lowered its quotation throughout the month, with a large decline; HDPE quotation is mainly firm. It is estimated by data that the domestic polyethylene output decreased by 3.69% month on month in November, and the supply of goods in some regions was tight in the middle of the month, providing some support for the polyethylene market. The “Double 11″ e-commerce consumption festival has brought a short-term boost to the market, but after the e-commerce festival, the operating rate of packaging film has declined, and downstream orders are not good. At the end of the month, the enterprise was willing to go to the warehouse, mainly to make more profits for shipment.

In terms of current raw materials, on November 29, international crude oil futures closed higher, bringing some support to the cost side, but the support was limited. On the demand side, the peak season of agricultural film has gradually ended, the willingness of petrochemical enterprises to support prices has weakened, and the logistics has been blocked due to the impact of domestic public events. The future market is pessimistic. It is expected that the polyethylene spot market will be dominated by weak operation.

According to the data of the large list of business cooperatives, as of November 28, 2022, the domestic market price of diethylene glycol was 6050 yuan/ton. Compared with November 1, 2022 (the reference price of diethylene glycol was 5600 yuan/ton), the price increased by 450 yuan/ton, or 6.76%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring of the business community that the diethylene glycol market has been rising as a whole since November (11.1-1.28). In the first ten days of October, the inventory of the main port continued to go out of stock, but the downstream demand was not expected to be good, the market was not motivated enough to push up, and the diethylene glycol market rose slightly, showing a stalemate. As of November 11, the market price of diethylene glycol was around 5500-5800 yuan/ton.

In the middle and late October, the number of imported ships arriving at the port was limited, the shipment situation at the port was relatively stable and optimistic, the port inventory remained low, and the supply was expected to be tight. The downstream accepted higher prices, and the diethylene glycol market rose broadly. The diethylene glycol market price was near 5980-6150 yuan/ton. However, near the end of the month, the diethylene glycol market price fell slightly due to the decline of crude oil and the reduction of shipment.

As of November 28, the market price of diethylene glycol was near 5750-6100 yuan/ton, exceeding 6% in November. At present, the trading atmosphere in the diethylene glycol field is general, and the actual orders are mainly negotiated according to the quantity.

At present, the trading and investment atmosphere in the diethylene glycol market is slightly weak, and the supply and demand transmission is general. The diethylene glycol data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the diethylene glycol market will mostly adjust its operation in a narrow range, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the arrival at the terminal and the subsequent arrival at the port.

The price of o-xylene dropped sharply in November

It can be seen from the trend chart of ortho xylene price of the business community that as of November 28, the price of ortho xylene was 8500 yuan/ton, down 1100 yuan/ton, or 11.46%, from 9600 yuan/ton at the end of October 31 of last month. Both upstream and downstream of the o-xylene industry chain fell, and the domestic market of o-xylene fell.

In November, the market of raw material mixed xylene fell due to shock

It can be seen from the mixed xylene price trend chart of the business community that the mixed xylene price fell in November. As of November 28, the price of mixed xylene was 7690 yuan/ton, down 6.56% from 8230 yuan/ton on November 1. In November, the price of mixed xylene fell in shock, the cost of o-xylene fell, and the pressure on o-xylene to fall increased.

The downstream phthalic anhydride price continued to decline in November

It can be seen from the trend chart of phthalic anhydride price of the business community that the domestic phthalic anhydride price of neighboring France continued to decline sharply in November. As of November 28, the quotation of phthalic anhydride of neighboring France was 8825 yuan/ton, a sharp drop of 8.90% from the price of 9687.50 yuan/ton on October 31. In November, the price of phthalic anhydride in ortho French dropped sharply, the downstream demand was weak, and the downward pressure on ortho xylene increased.

Future outlook

Analysts of ortho xylene data from the business community believe that the ortho xylene manufacturers started work steadily in November and the supply of ortho xylene was sufficient. On the cost side, the price of mixed xylene dropped sharply and the cost of o-xylene dropped; On the demand side, phthalic anhydride continued to decline, while the demand for ortho benzene remained weak. To sum up, the cost of o-xylene fell and the demand was sluggish, and the price of o-xylene was expected to decline in the future.

Price trend

The domestic PA66 market declined in late November. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average ex factory price of domestic PA66 was 25250 yuan/ton on November 1, and 24000 yuan/ton on November 25. The range of increase and decrease was -4.95%, and -39.49% compared with the same period last year.

Cause analysis

In late November, the price of PA66 fell, and the offer center was lowered. On the upstream side, the domestic supply of hexamethylene diamine is still tight and the price is firm. Adipic acid fell due to the weak raw material market, and the support of PA66 cost fell. In terms of industry operating rate, PA66 enterprises continue to be affected by the tight supply of raw materials, the industry load is limited, the operating level is stable between 60% – 70%, and the market spot supply is stable and abundant, leading to an increase in social inventory. In terms of demand, this week, the terminal enterprises tended to maintain production just because of their demand for goods. At the end of the traditional peak season, the enthusiasm for downstream goods preparation was further reduced, and they had strong resistance to high price goods. As the shipping speed of merchants slows down, the center of gravity of the price loosens in the middle of the month, the shipping speed of merchants slows down, and the market is not smooth.

Future market forecast

The spot price of PA66 fell in late November. The raw material side market remained strong, and the cost side support of PA66 was average. The load of PA66 enterprises stabilized, the enterprises reduced their prices and shipped goods, and the overall inventory position increased. The demand side just needs to follow up slowly, and it is estimated that PA66 will continue to operate in a weak way due to weak demand in the short term.

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 24, 2022, the domestic butanone market price reference was 8916 yuan/ton, compared with the price on November 17 (the butanone reference price was 8966 yuan/ton), the average price decreased by 50 yuan/ton, or 0.56%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that in the near future (11.17-11.24), the overall domestic butanone market fell slightly. Recently, the downstream demand of the domestic butanone market continues to be insufficient, the downstream butanone butanone oxime industry starts to maintain a low level, and the trading atmosphere in the butanone market is light. Under the supply and demand game, the butanone market mostly maintains a stalemate. Until the 22nd, the market of butanone in some regions fell slightly, and the price of butanone fell by about 100 yuan/ton. As of November 24, the domestic market price of butanone is around 8700-9250 yuan/ton.

Future market analysis of butanone

At present, the cost side of raw materials gives some support to butanone. The butanone factory has limited space for substantial price reduction. The weak demand side is difficult to support the strong rise of the butanone market. The butanone data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic butanone market will mainly adjust its operation in a narrow range under the game between the supply and demand sides, and more attention should be paid to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

From November 11, 2022 to November 18, 2022, the production price of coal tar in Shanxi Province rose. According to the monitoring of the business community, the average market price was 6452.5 yuan/ton last weekend and 6470 yuan/ton this weekend, up 0.27%.

On November 17, the coal tar (high temperature) commodity index was 222.50, unchanged from yesterday, 3.88% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 231.47 (2022-11-09), and 371.90% higher than the lowest point of 47.15 on December 6, 2015. (Note: the cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

Summary of coal tar price in Shanxi (unit: yuan/ton)

Regional./market price./compared with last week’s bidding price

Linfen./6500/-

Taiyuan./6420./+20

Lvliang./6400/-

Most of the bidding prices in Shanxi Province were temporarily stable this week, and some of them rose slightly. The downstream deep processing industry has a strong resistance to high priced raw materials, which is difficult to support the high price of tar. However, the recent commencement of coke enterprises is slightly low, the tar supply is slightly tight, and the coke enterprises have a strong psychology of supporting the price.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the monthly coal tar K column chart above that since January 2022, the coal tar market has risen for six months, only slightly declined in May, and the price remained stable in February. The weekly K-bar chart shows that the coal tar market has risen for 12 consecutive weeks. Only after a small price correction in one week, the price continued to rise. After the price fell sharply in November, it recovered slightly this week.

In terms of the industrial chain, the downstream deep processing industry rose and fell by half this week. With the decline of the tar price in the early stage, the profit of deep processing this week recovered slightly. The operating rate of the industry was basically flat compared with the early stage, and the overall trend was slightly stable.

This week, the coal tar market was dominated by narrow fluctuations, with the market up and down mixed and limited. As of press release, the mainstream price in Shanxi was 6400-6500 yuan/ton, a slight increase of 20 yuan/ton compared with last week. The mainstream price in Shandong is 6400-6450 yuan/ton, which is flat compared with last week. The mainstream price in Hebei is 6400 yuan/ton, which is flat. The tar price rose significantly in the early stage, and the profit of the downstream deep processing industry contracted. Although the profit recovered to a certain extent after the price fell in some regions last week, the overall profit is still low. The deep processing industry is still resistant to the high price tar, while some varieties of the deep processing industry have declined since last week, and the support for tar demand has declined slightly. In terms of supply, the recent commencement of coke enterprises is still at a low level, the production restriction of coke enterprises is basically the same as that in the early stage, the tar is still in a tight supply situation, and the enterprises have a strong attitude of price fixing. In the downstream, the overall cash flow of the deep processing industry is not good this week, and the resistance to high priced raw materials is growing. However, as the heating season enters, the operating rate of coking enterprises is still expected to decline to some extent, and the tar will soon enter a period of seasonal tight supply. Therefore, the tar price will remain at a high consolidation trend in the future market, with the price mainly fluctuating in a narrow range.

From November 11, 2022 to November 18, 2022, the ex factory price of hydrogenated benzene in North China was temporarily stable, at 7150 yuan/ton last weekend, and 7150 yuan/ton this weekend, unchanged.

Main domestic market price of hydrogenated benzene this week (unit: yuan/ton)

Market./Price on November 11./Price on November 11./Rise and fall

East China./7000 ～ 7100./7000 ～ 7050./- 25

Shandong region./6800 ～ 6900./6800 ～ 6850./- 25

Crude oil: international crude oil futures fell sharply on November 17. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was 81.64 dollars/barrel, down 3.95 dollars or 4.6%. WTI fell to the lowest point since October 3. The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 89.87 dollars/barrel, down 3.08 dollars or 3.3%.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date,. Adjusted Price./Adjusted Amount

November 2./7200./- 250

November 4./7000./- 200

The ex factory price of Sinopec’s pure benzene will be reduced by 200 yuan/ton on November 4, 2022, and the current price is 7000 yuan/ton.

Other enterprise quotations: Chambroad Petrochemical quoted 7000 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7050 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 6903 yuan/ton, and Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 6950 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July. It has slightly warmed up in late August and early September, and fell in October and November.

The pure benzene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week. At the beginning of the week, crude oil and styrene both rose, boosting the pure benzene market mentality. The pure benzene market was boosted and prices rose slightly. Near the weekend, the trend of crude oil and styrene was weak. The decline of crude oil price dragged down the mentality of the pure benzene market. At the weekend, the price of the pure benzene market decreased slightly. This week, the price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was stable. Affected by pure benzene, the hydrogenation benzene market fluctuated in a narrow range this week, basically following the trend of pure benzene. Within the week, the fluctuation was less than 50 yuan/ton, and the overall trend of the industrial chain was volatile. In the future, the overall trend of crude oil in the near future is volatile, the supply of pure benzene is sufficient, and the downstream demand is not good. It is expected that pure benzene will operate stably in the short term and weakly.

According to the monitoring of the bulk data of the business community, the mainstream price of styrene in Shandong has risen in the recent shock. The price of styrene in Shandong was 8108.33 yuan/ton on the 14th and 8163.33 yuan/ton on the 21st, up 0.68%. The price fell 4.80% year on year.

styrene

Recently, the price of styrene market fluctuated and rose. It can be seen from the above figure that the recent price of styrene has been dominated by shock consolidation, and the price has risen slightly this week. The main reason is that the recently concluded 22000 ton order to export to a country in the Middle East has brought a certain boost to the market, and some styrene plants have plans to reduce production in late November, domestic supply has decreased slightly, combined with strong downstream demand, which has played a certain supporting role in styrene prices, and styrene spot prices have fluctuated upward.

In terms of raw materials, the recent rise in pure benzene has been followed by a fall. At the beginning of last week, due to the expected increase in downstream styrene exports, the market has become stronger, driving the increase in pure benzene negotiations, and the price has followed the rise. However, due to the overall poor profitability of downstream products, the market trend continues to be weak, and the demand for pure benzene is weak. The crude oil fell continuously in the second half of the week. The market atmosphere was depressed by bad news, and the price fell back. Recently, the inventory of pure benzene at ports in East China has dropped to 87300 tons, with a small consumption. The trend of crude oil is volatile, the supply side of pure benzene is sufficient, and the overall downstream demand is poor. It is expected that pure benzene will continue its weak operation in the short term, with limited rebound space.

In terms of downstream, the three major downstream styrene markets rose and fell at different levels this week. At present, the trend of PS (polystyrene) market is weak, the cost support is strong, the crude oil plummets, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in the theater slows down the transaction atmosphere. The pressure on merchants to ship is not reduced. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is 9400-10950 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of HIPS (polystyrene) is 10200-11400 yuan/ton.

EPS prices fell this week. Overall transaction weakened month on month. On the 14th, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10950 yuan/ton, and on the 21st, the average price of EPS ordinary materials was 10580 yuan/ton, a decline of 3.77%. The buying enthusiasm was not high, the EPS market price was weak, and the terminal demand was sluggish. The manufacturer reduced the price in order to maintain the shipment.

Recently, the domestic ABS market fluctuated and rose. In the middle of November, the load of ABS industry was adjusted in a narrow range. At present, the commencement of the plant is maintained at more than 92%, unchanged from last week, and the supply of goods on the site continues to be abundant. The inventory position decreased by 13,000 tons compared with last week. At the same time, the enterprise’s cost side pressure increased, and the ex factory price increased, with an average increase of less than 100 yuan/ton. ABS upstream three materials rose in February and stabilized in the middle of November, and the overall performance was fair. Among them, the load of the acrylonitrile industry was low, and the supply side tightened to support the continuous rise of the market. The support for ABS cost side is strong, and the market is surging.

In the near future, the pure benzene market is weak, forming a certain pressure on the styrene market, but the downstream demand is expected to further strengthen. With the expectation of domestic styrene production reduction, the styrene market is expected to rise slightly.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of November 18, the average price of domestic LNG was 4426 yuan/ton, which was 6.07% lower than the average price of 4712 yuan/ton on November 14.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic LNG market continued to be weak this week. LNG prices continued to fall from Monday to Thursday. In some areas, due to snow weather and epidemic control, transportation was blocked, and enterprises cut prices one after another to digest inventory. A sharp drop in the intake air has a negative impact on the domestic gas market. On Tuesday, the bidding price of feed gas was lowered, reducing the pressure on the cost of the liquid plant. The market is still oversupply, the demand side is weak, and the high liquid price continues to cover the drop. After continuous price cuts, the LNG market in some regions stopped falling and rebounded on Friday, but the demand side still performed poorly.

Offer of LNG in domestic mainstream market on November 18:

Region, quotation

Inner Mongolia, 4370-4500

Shaanxi Province, 4450-4750

Shanxi, 4650-4750

Ningxia, 4400-4520

Hebei Province, 5000-5150

Henan, 4800-5300

Sichuan, 4550-4850

Shandong, 5100-5700

3、 Future market forecast

LNG analysts from the business community believe that: recently, due to the weakening of cost support, on-site supply exceeds demand, terminal demand release is limited, and the LNG market continues to decline. The new raw gas auction is about to start, and the industry is mainly cautious. It is expected that the LNG market will consolidate and operate in the short term. It is recommended to pay attention to the changes in cost side and downstream demand.