Last week (October 14-20), the shipment of adhesive short fibers was stable, market prices were stable, and factories were mainly responsible for stable delivery and order execution. The price of dissolved slurry remains stable at a high level, and the auxiliary material market is relatively strong. At present, the operating rate of the adhesive short fiber device remains high with little change, and the supply is still acceptable. However, the inventory is low and there is no sales pressure at the moment. Downstream cotton yarn procurement is still mainly based on demand.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of October 20th, the domestic factory price of 1.2D * 38mm adhesive short fiber is 13820 yuan/ton, and the price remains stable.

Raw materials remain stable

Last week (October 14-20), the market for the main raw material of viscose staple fiber, dissolution slurry, was consolidating at a high level, with average cost support. Currently, the domestic price for dissolution slurry is around 7800 yuan/ton. The price quotation for imported broad-leaved soluble pulp is around 960 US dollars per ton, while the price for coniferous soluble pulp remains around 1040 US dollars per ton.

Low inventory level

Most of the adhesive short fiber market devices are operating stably, with high market supply and a daily operating rate of around 85.8% in the industry. Due to the increase in downstream demand, the overall inventory level of the adhesive short fiber market continues to decline and is at a low level. Some models in the market are experiencing tight shipments, and there is still positive support from the supply side.

Demand side support is still limited

The downstream cotton yarn market has a flat trading atmosphere and stable prices. As of October 20th, the average factory price of human cotton yarn (30S, ring spun, first-class) is 17700 yuan/ton. Although the demand in the terminal market is still weak, the downstream vortex spinning market equipment continues to increase, and yarn mills are holding onto the demand for essential orders, resulting in an increase in demand for adhesive short fibers. However, the new round of orders in the market is still expected to last for about a month, with limited support from the demand side.

Future forecast

The upstream raw material market prices are expected to remain firm and stable, while the on-site supply is tight. Downstream yarn factories are following up as needed, and the market has entered a new round of order delivery period. Many adhesive short fiber manufacturers are queuing up to ship, and coupled with the lack of significant improvement in the end market, it may be difficult for the demand side to improve. Therefore, it is expected that the demand side of adhesive short fiber will perform averagely in the later stage. Business analysts predict that the domestic adhesive short fiber market will maintain stable prices in the short term, with limited price fluctuations, and prices are expected to be between 13700-13900 yuan/ton.

The domestic fluorite prices have remained stable this week, with an average price of 3462.5 yuan/ton as of the weekend, unchanged from the early week price of 3642.25 yuan/ton, a year-on-year decrease of 8.43%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the beneficiation plant is strong. This week, the fluorite market.

Demand side: Stable price of hydrofluoric acid, rising refrigerant market

This week, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid is temporarily stable. Recently, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has been negotiated at 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid equipment is still in shutdown, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of the hydrofluoric acid is in operation. The stocking sentiment is average, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable this week.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which still supports the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, some downstream refrigerant products have risen, but the operating situation of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is average. Overall, the domestic fluorite market is prone to rise but difficult to fall.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3462.5 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.40% from the beginning of the week price of 3381.25 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 8.13%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market is strong.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid price increase helps refrigerant market rise

Domestic major manufacturers have raised the pricing of 10% hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the mainstream price of hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has increased to 10500-11000 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and more than 50% of hydrofluoric acid production has started. The pricing of hydrofluoric acid major factories has increased, which is a positive support for the domestic fluorite market. This week, fluorite prices have risen.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market for some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a rebound in the domestic fluorite market.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support, and the fluorite market still has support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production and undergone safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the downstream hydrofluoric acid market has risen, which supports the price increase of the domestic fluorite market.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 30th, the reference average price of the domestic urea market was 2157 yuan/ton, which is 0.74% lower than the reference average price of 2172 yuan/ton on September 1st.

2、 Market analysis

market conditions

In September, the domestic urea market prices fluctuated and fluctuated. As of September 30th, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong region is around 1810-1840 yuan/ton, in Hebei region it is around 1860-1880 yuan/ton, in Henan region it is around 1830-1860 yuan/ton, and in Liaoning region it is around 1900 yuan/ton.

According to the weekly K-bar chart from July 1, 2024 to September 23, 2024, it can be seen that the domestic ammonium sulfate cycle is fluctuating. There was a significant increase in September, with the largest increase being 1.12% in the week of September 9th.

Supply and demand situation

In terms of supply, the urea market has ample supply this month. In terms of demand, agricultural demand maintains rigid procurement, and downstream purchases of urea are more cautious, with many low-priced transactions. At present, the market supply and demand are relatively balanced, and there is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere.

3、 Future forecast

Business Society’s urea analyst believes that the urea market has seen a slight increase in recent days. The demand for pre holiday stocking has increased, resulting in slight fluctuations in urea prices. It is expected that the domestic urea market will experience a narrow range of price consolidation and operation in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 29th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8520 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.02% compared to the beginning of this month (8607.5 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Downstream polyether new orders increase, the shipping atmosphere of enterprises is good, inventory is sufficient, and the price trend of epoxy propane market is fluctuating and consolidating.

Raw material side: The market price of raw material propylene has decreased. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of September 27th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6585.75 yuan/ton, a decrease of -5.49% compared to the beginning of this month (6968.25 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: The downstream order volume has slightly increased, but the sustainability is weak, and the supply and demand transmission is not smooth. Many adopt a wait-and-see attitude, and the epoxy propane market is experiencing a situation of mixed ups and downs.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that although there is some support for raw material prices, the downstream has a strong wait-and-see attitude, mainly focusing on on-demand procurement, and the transmission of supply and demand is not smooth, resulting in mixed ups and downs of epoxy propane. It is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will be mainly volatile, and more attention should be paid to market information guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, on September 27th, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang Province quoted POY (150D/48F) at 6900-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at 8400-8800 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at 7400-7700 yuan/ton.

In mid to late September, the domestic PTA spot price stopped falling and stabilized. As of September 27th, the average spot price of PTA in East China was 4878 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.11% from September 23rd. The tense situation in the Middle East and the possibility of a resurgence in crude oil prices, coupled with a strong trend in international oil prices, have raised support for PTA costs. In addition, macroeconomic sentiment has improved, and the general rise in commodity markets has triggered resonance. Due to the unplanned shutdown of multiple PTA plants, prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

In terms of demand, the market has improved significantly, but the cautious atmosphere continues. After the Mid Autumn Festival, there has been an improvement, and the order volume has increased significantly. Starting from September 26th, a strong cold air will depart from Xinjiang and affect most parts of China from west to east. The maximum cooling range in northern regions can reach 10-12 ℃. After the cooling, the national temperature will hit a new low after the beginning of autumn on a large scale. Cooling weather can effectively stimulate the sales of seasonal clothing. In addition, the central bank’s monetary policy has expanded its measures, lowering the reserve requirement ratio by 0.5 percentage points and lowering the interest rate on existing housing loans, which is also conducive to unleashing consumption potential.

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the willingness of filament enterprises to ship still exists, and it is expected that the filament market prices will remain stable and fluctuate in the short term, with rigid demand. In the future, attention needs to be paid to the trend of the raw material market and the issuance of downstream orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, in mid September, the filament market lacked strong positive momentum, resulting in weak market prices and a new low for the year. At present, the mainstream polyester filament factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang offer POY (150D/48F) at a price of 6900-7200 yuan/ton, polyester DTY (150D/48F low elasticity) at a price of 8500-8900 yuan/ton, and polyester FDY (150D/96F) at a price of 7500-7800 yuan/ton.

In mid to late September, the domestic PTA spot price stopped falling and stabilized. As of September 20th, the average spot price of PTA in East China was 4811 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.39% from the beginning of the week. The international oil price trend is relatively strong, providing upward support for PTA costs. In addition, the macroeconomic sentiment has improved, and the general rise in commodity markets has triggered resonance. Due to the unplanned shutdown of multiple PTA plants, prices have stopped falling and rebounded slightly.

Entering the traditional peak season of “Golden September”, the market was not as enthusiastic as expected, and weak demand led to a setback in market confidence. As a result, the operating rate of the polyester industry was adjusted to around 85%. As the summer heat gradually subsides, the operating rate of downstream industries is steadily recovering, and fabric orders for autumn and winter seasons are slowly opening up, showing an overall slow recovery trend. However, downstream textile enterprises have generally reported a significant decrease in the actual number of orders received compared to previous years, coupled with unfavorable fluctuations in raw material costs, leading to increasingly fierce competition within the entire textile market. In this environment, the bargaining space for fabric orders has been significantly compressed, and textile enterprises are facing unprecedented cost pressures, with profit margins severely squeezed. Tight cash flow has become a norm, forcing companies to adopt a more cautious attitude when accepting new orders to avoid potential operational risks

Overall, analysts from Shengyi Society predict that the willingness of filament enterprises to ship still exists, and it is expected that the center of gravity of the filament market will continue to decline in the short term. However, due to the existence of rigid demand, prices will mainly fluctuate in a stable manner. In the future, we need to pay attention to the trend of the raw material market and the issuance of downstream orders.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from September 16th to 20th (as of 15:00), the average price of methanol in East China ports in the domestic market increased from 2401 yuan/ton to 2410 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.35% during the period, a month on month decrease of 1.70%, and a year-on-year decrease of 6.10%. Domestic methanol production continues to rise, and some methanol production enterprises have pre holiday inventory demand. However, downstream and trading companies have a generally wait-and-see attitude towards restocking, with production enterprises mainly lowering their quotations and shipping. The domestic methanol market atmosphere is average.

As of the close on September 20th, the closing price of methanol futures on Zhengzhou Commodity Exchange has fallen. The main contract 2501 for methanol futures opened at 2411 yuan/ton, with a highest price of 2412 yuan/ton and a lowest price of 2376 yuan/ton. It closed at 2382 yuan/ton in the closing session, a decrease of 3% or 0.13% compared to the previous trading day’s settlement. The trading volume was 550688 lots, the position was 791242 lots, and the daily increase was 21019.

As of September 20th, the summary of methanol market prices in various regions:

Region/ Price

Shanxi region/ 2120-2140 yuan/ton

Liaoning region/ 2740 yuan/ton

Anhui region/ 2355 yuan/ton

Henan region/ 2230 yuan/ton factory withdrawal in foreign exchange

On the cost side, the sales situation of coal mines is average, and some coal mines with high inventory pressure have begun to slightly lower the prices at the pit mouth. With the stable prices of large coal enterprises’ external purchases, local coal plants and traders have a relatively calm sentiment towards the future market, and the prices at the production site have remained stable overall. The impact of methanol cost is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream MTBE: MTBE demand is increasing; The mainstream chloride factories in East China have a parking and maintenance plan, which reduces the demand for methanol; Downstream acetic acid: Increased demand for acetic acid; Downstream dimethyl ether: reduced demand for dimethyl ether; There is currently no plan to stop driving formaldehyde, and the demand fluctuation is not significant. The impact of methanol demand is mixed.

Supply side, Shandong equipment maintenance; Inner Mongolia installation restored. The recovery amount exceeds the loss amount, and the capacity utilization rate increases. Negative factors affecting the methanol supply side.

In terms of external markets, as of the close of September 19th, the CFR Southeast Asian methanol market closed at $345.00- $346.00 per ton. The closing price of the US Gulf methanol market is 108.00-109.00 cents per gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market is 349.50-350.50 euros/ton.

Region/ Country/ Closing price/ Rise and fall

Asia/ CFR Southeast Asia/ 345.00-346.00 USD/ton/ 0 USD/ton

Europe and America/ American Gulf/ 108.00 to 109.00 cents per gallon/ 1 cent/gallon

Europe/ FOB Rotterdam/ 349.50-350.50 euros/ton/ -0.5 euros/ton

Market forecast shows sufficient supply and strong willingness of factories to ship before the holiday; In terms of demand, traditional downstream profits are average, and there is limited room for further demand growth. The methanol analyst from Shengyi Society predicts that the domestic methanol market situation may mainly consolidate.

This week, the dichloromethane market started to rise and then fell. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 18th, the average price of dichloromethane bulk water in Shandong Province was 2685 yuan/ton, with a weekly decline of 1.65%.

The raw material cost has limited market support, and this week the focus of methanol has shifted upwards, while the liquid chlorine market has rebounded from a low level; The operating rate of the methane chloride unit has slightly decreased, and the focus of the dichloromethane market has shifted upward before the holiday. As the holiday approaches, the downstream stocking and receiving situation is average, and the shipment volume of enterprises has significantly decreased, leading to a rapid increase in inventory. Returning after the holiday, the overall market demand is mainly following suit, and manufacturers have lowered prices one after another to increase market activity. As of September 18th, the ex factory price of mainstream dichloromethane in Shandong region is around 2670-2700 yuan/ton.

Supply side: Domestic production of methane chloride is stable with some fluctuations.

In terms of raw materials: Recently, the market for methanol raw materials has fluctuated narrowly. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of September 18th, the spot price of methanol was 2401.67 yuan/ton, with a shift in focus this week, but a 3.16% decrease from the beginning of the month. The price of liquid chlorine rebounded at a low level, with average shipments from enterprises and a relatively light trading atmosphere in the market.

In terms of demand: Dichloromethane has a wide range of applications and plays an important role in various industries. The popularity of double section replenishment procurement is average, and overall essential procurement is the main focus. An increase of 35000 tons of R32 domestic production quota will be issued for downstream refrigerants, corresponding to a 25% increase in the existing domestic production quota for R32 by 2024. This will alleviate the tight supply situation in the market and provide support for the dichloromethane market.

Business analysts believe that the demand for replenishment after the holiday has not yet started, and the short-term price of dichloromethane is consolidating. Before the National Day holiday, the focus of the dichloromethane market may rebound and move upward.

1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Shengyi Society, the average price of titanium dioxide in the domestic market this week is 15750 yuan/ton, and the market is temporarily stable.

2、 Market analysis

The domestic titanium dioxide market is temporarily stable this week. The price of titanium concentrate on raw materials remains weak and stable, while the price of sulfuric acid has declined. At present, domestic titanium dioxide manufacturers’ quotations are mainly stable, while traders’ quotations are relatively flexible. The market has a strong wait-and-see attitude, and actual orders are cautious, with average trading conditions. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 15400-16300 yuan/ton; The quotation for rutile titanium dioxide is around 14200-14500 yuan/ton. The actual transaction price is negotiable.

In terms of titanium concentrate, the titanium concentrate market in the Panxi region is operating weakly and steadily. At present, the spot market is mainly operating in a stalemate. Downstream titanium dioxide enterprises have a weak market and weak market conditions, with few inquiries for titanium ore, maintaining demand. As of now, the price of 38-42 grade titanium ore without tax is around 1570-1620 yuan/ton, the price of 46 grade 10 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2270-2300 yuan/ton, and the price of 47 grade 20 titanium concentrate without tax is around 2400-2500 yuan/ton. In the short term, the price of Panxi titanium concentrate continues to remain stagnant, and the specific transaction price will be discussed on a case by case basis.

3、 Future forecast

The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the domestic titanium dioxide market is currently stable this week, with average trading on the market. The downstream market demand is average, so it’s better to wait and see. It is expected that the market will operate weakly and steadily in the short term, and the actual transaction price will be negotiated one by one.