According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate upward in March 2026. From March 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9993.33 yuan/ton to 18066.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80.79% during the period.
In March 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed an overall trend of “strong upward trend mainly accompanied by a brief pullback”, with a continuous upward trend throughout the month. The strengthening of costs and the tightening of supply sources formed a resonance positive effect. Even though downstream demand followed suit weakly, it still supported a significant price surge. Although there was a brief small pullback during this period, it did not change the overall upward trend.
Cost aspect: The cost side became the core driving force behind the increase in butadiene prices in March. The ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has raised concerns about global crude oil supply, causing international oil prices to soar and maintain high levels. As a byproduct of ethylene cracking, the production capacity of butadiene is highly dependent on the naphtha cracking route, and its price is deeply linked to the trends of crude oil and naphtha. The sharp rise in crude oil directly drives up the overall cost of the refining industry chain, while the simultaneous strengthening of naphtha drives up the rigid increase in butadiene production costs. The obstruction of shipping circulation further increases the cost of raw material imports, puts pressure on the production of refining enterprises, and indirectly solidifies the foundation of raw material support. As of March 31st, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $101.38 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June was $103.97 per barrel.
Supply side:
This month, multiple major butadiene plants in China have entered a maintenance cycle, and the overall operating load of the industry continues to decline, with a significant contraction in spot production. The mainstream production facilities in overseas Asia have experienced simultaneous reductions and force majeure situations, coupled with disruptions in shipping channels, resulting in a significant reduction in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port and insufficient replenishment efforts. Domestic port inventory continues to be at a low level, with a shortage of spot circulation resources in the market. The strong sentiment of suppliers to hold back prices and sell is further driving the market upward.
Demand side:
Faced with the rapid and significant increase in raw material prices, the downstream synthetic rubber industry chain is under obvious pressure, and production profits are squeezed. Most enterprises choose to reduce losses and seek safety. Downstream terminals have strong resistance to high-level raw materials, and they adopt a multi-dimensional rigid demand small order mode for procurement, with insufficient willingness to stock up in bulk. Only a few segments of downstream demand remain stable, making it difficult to hedge against the overall weak demand pattern. The overall performance of the demand side is weak, which has a certain restraining effect on the upward trend of the market.
In March 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber market emerged from a wide range of independent fluctuations and significant surges, breaking the previous consolidation pattern. The price center of gravity shifted significantly during the month, mainly driven by the strong pull of the cost side and the expectation of tight supply. Downstream demand follow-up was cautious, showing an overall operating characteristic of “cost bottoming out, supply reluctance to sell, and rigid demand follow-up”. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China has slightly declined. International crude oil prices are consolidating at a high level, and the overall cost support of butadiene rubber is strong. However, downstream inquiries are deadlocked due to high prices, and merchants are offering discounts of 200-300 tons. At present, Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are priced at 17600-17800 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 17400 to 17650 yuan/ton.

Market forecast:
The geopolitical situation on the cost side remains uncertain, and the high support of crude oil is difficult to quickly dissipate in the short term; The restart rhythm of the supply side maintenance device is slow, and the tight spot situation is temporarily difficult to completely alleviate. However, the pressure of downstream losses continues, and the willingness to start production and purchase is unlikely to rebound significantly. Demand side constraints will still exist. Overall, the unilateral surge in the market may come to an end, and the long and short forces have entered a stage of equilibrium game. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the high range, and the focus will be on tracking cost fluctuations, equipment production and maintenance progress, and downstream actual transaction follow-up changes.