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This week, the PVC market rose first and then fell (8.5-8.12)

1、 Price trend

 

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According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of PVC carbide SG5 fell this week. The average price of domestic PVC was 6668.57 yuan / ton last Friday and 6570 yuan / ton this Friday. The price fell by 1.48% in the week.

 

2、 Market analysis

 

This week, the domestic spot market of PVC rose first and then fell. On the whole, the price fell mainly. At present, the market is relatively light, and traders are not very motivated to take goods. In addition, today’s futures price has been lowered, market confidence is obviously insufficient, the market price has weakened, and the sales of goods holders are under pressure. The overall purchasing enthusiasm of downstream enterprises is poor, and the price is lowered. Up to now, the quotation range of domestic pvc5 electric stone is mostly around 6400-6750 yuan / ton.

 

On August 11, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $94.34/barrel, up US $2.41 or 2.6%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $99.60/barrel, up US $2.20 or 2.3%. Previous data showed that US gasoline inventories fell sharply last week; In addition, the International Energy Agency (IEA) raised the growth forecast of oil demand this year, and the data level eased the expected pressure of demand decline caused by economic recession; Combined with the soaring price of natural gas, the demand for oil as an alternative energy has been boosted.

 

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In terms of calcium carbide, the average price of calcium carbide was 3933.33 yuan / ton last Friday and 4050 yuan / ton this Friday, with a price increase of 2.97% in the week. This week, the factory prices of calcium carbide manufacturers were mostly stable, and the prices of individual enterprises increased. The price of the upstream orchid charcoal is low, and the market is obviously destocked, and the cost support is acceptable. The downstream PVC market is in shock operation, and the purchasing enthusiasm within the week is relatively good, while the calcium carbide transaction is relatively positive.

 

3、 Future forecast

 

PVC analysts of business club believe that the spot price of PVC rose first and then fell this week. At present, the demand of PVC spot market is general. Downstream enterprises mostly wait and see, mainly receiving orders on demand. Futures prices fell today, and traders’ enthusiasm for taking goods decreased. It is expected that in the short term, the PVC market will still be subject to a narrow range of consolidation, and we will pay close attention to the changes in the news.

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Weak supply and demand: weak consolidation of Shandong formaldehyde Market

According to the data of the bulk commodity list of the business community, the recent market situation of formaldehyde in Shandong is weak and consolidated. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1213.33 yuan / ton. The current price has decreased by 1.89% month on month, and the current price has decreased by 8.08% year on year.

 

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formaldehyde

 

Recently, the market price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province has been weak and consolidated. From the above figure, it can be seen that the market of formaldehyde in the past two months has been mainly fluctuating and falling, and the recent market is basically stable. As of August 11, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1200-1220 yuan / ton. Recently, the upstream methanol market fluctuates little, the cost support is general, the downstream operating rate has not been greatly improved, the demand for procurement is maintained, the market transaction is flat, the formaldehyde manufacturers have stable shipments, and the market is weak.

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Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuates in a narrow range. No matter in terms of production enterprises or import source prices at ports, the rise and fall are not large. Although the coal price is high, which seems to drive the methanol market to rise, the demand is low, which restricts the development of the whole industrial chain.

 

This week, the methanol market was adjusted at a low level, the cost support was general, the operation rate of the downstream plate factory was not improved, the demand for formaldehyde was limited, the purchase was maintained, the formaldehyde manufacturers were normally shipped, the market transaction was light, and the formaldehyde market was adjusted at a weak level.

 

Recently, the domestic methanol market has a downward trend, and the demand of downstream wood panel plants continues to be poor. Therefore, the formaldehyde analysts of business social chemical branch predict that the recent decline in the price of formaldehyde in Shandong is mainly weak.

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Polyaluminum chloride weekly mainstream market slightly weakened

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the polyaluminum chloride commodity index on August 7 was 115.07, which was the same as yesterday, down 19.33% from the highest point 142.64 (2021-11-01) in the cycle, and up 36.47% from the lowest point 84.32 on August 18, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)

 

As shown in the figure, the monitoring data of the business agency shows that the domestic market of polyaluminum chloride decreased slightly by 0.58% in that week (August 1-7), and the mainstream price of solid (industrial grade, content ≥ 28%) polyaluminum chloride at the beginning of the week was 2141.25 yuan / ton, and the main price at the end of the week was 2128.75 yuan / ton. Domestic manufacturers have normal production, sufficient stock, insufficient cost support, weak demand, and a negative market attitude. Some manufacturers have reduced their quotations slightly.

 

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Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, the monitoring data of hydrochloric acid: Business Agency shows that the average price of domestic hydrochloric acid market dropped from 196.67 yuan / ton to 166.67 yuan / ton in that week (August 1-7), a decrease of 15.25%. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 40.48%. According to the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic market price of hydrochloric acid will be lowered in this week. From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chain of hydrochloric acid, the market of liquid chlorine in the upstream is low, the cost support is general, the market in the downstream is empty, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weakened. The analysis shows that hydrochloric acid is mainly subject to small fluctuations and falls in the near future.

 

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 1 was 6520 yuan / ton, and the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas on August 5 was 6456 yuan / ton. During the week, the price of domestic liquefied natural gas fell by 0.98%. The market trend of liquefied natural gas was concentrated in decline, and the decline on Friday was postponed, and some regions showed rebound. At present, the cost side is strongly supported, and the demand side is waiting to be released. It is expected that the LNG price will fluctuate slightly in the short term, mainly for consolidation and operation.

 

Future forecast: in the near future, the support force of raw material cost will continue to weaken, market confidence will be empty, downstream demand will be light, and the transaction will be general. It is expected that the future polyaluminum chloride market will be stable and weak.

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Domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market price is stable (8.1-8.8)

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, as of August 8, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 473333.34 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Monday (August 1) and that of July 8, with a year-on-year increase of 0.71% in a three-month cycle.

 

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In the near future (8.1-8.8), the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market has been stable. Recently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate fluctuated and increased, which has a certain support for lithium hydroxide. The overall supply of the market is mainly stable, the demand side is weak, the shipping atmosphere is flat, and the negotiation focus of domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market is stable.

 

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For upstream lithium carbonate, according to the data monitoring of the business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate has been rising continuously. On August 8, the reference price of lithium carbonate was 462600.00, up 0.35% compared with that on August 1 (461000.00).

 

According to the lithium hydroxide analysts of business club, the current cost support is slightly rising, and the supply and demand support is weak. It is expected that in the short term, the domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide market price may be stable, and more attention should be paid to market information and guidance.

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Macro impact: lead price fluctuates downward (7.29-8.5)

This week, the trend of lead market (7.29-8.5) fell first and then rose. The average price of domestic market was 15195 yuan / ton last weekend and 15135 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.39%.

 

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The K-bar chart of commodity price reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the idea of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy and sell according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red indicates rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

 

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity price rises and falls in the 31st week of 2022 (8.1-8.5), there are 4 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that have increased month on month, and the top 3 commodities are gold (1.39%), zinc (1.27%) and aluminum (0.56%). There were 16 commodities with a month on month decline, and 4 commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 17.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were neodymium oxide (- 6.14%), praseodymium oxide (- 5.85%) and metal neodymium (- 5.58%). This week’s average increase or decrease was – 1.9%.

 

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Lead futures market situation this week

 

Variety, closing price, compared with the same period last week, inventory

Shanghai lead, 15185 yuan / ton, – 55 yuan / ton, 60056 tons

London lead., 2079.5 US dollars / ton, + 43 US dollars / ton, 38875 tons

In terms of futures, Lun lead was under pressure this week, with the overall operating range of US $2060-2001 / ton. In terms of the macro situation this week, the geopolitical situation was tense and the risk aversion psychology was strong. The metal market was generally under pressure and the trend of Shanghai lead was basically similar to that at the beginning of the week. On Friday, the metal market mentality was boosted by the fall of the US dollar index. The metal market as a whole rose, and the price of Shanghai lead rose slightly.

 

Basically, the supply has not changed much recently. The refineries have completed maintenance and resumed production one after another. This week, the output of primary lead is relatively stable. On the downstream side, boosted by the end of the seasonal off-season and the coming of the peak season, the sales of storage batteries have improved to a certain extent, which has significantly supported the lead price. However, with the lead price rising, the actual transaction situation in the current market is lower than that in the previous period, and the whole downstream is on the sidelines. In terms of inventory, the overall performance of lead inventory removal is relatively slow. In a comprehensive view, the current macro performance of the lead ingot Market is acceptable. The demand in the downstream peak season is expected to increase, which has a certain support for the lead price. It is expected that the lead price will have a certain room to rise under the boost of demand. In the case of Limited changes in the fundamentals, focus on the macro impact.

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At the beginning of August, ABS prices rose, but the fundamentals were weak

Price trend:

 

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According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market rose in early August, and the spot prices of some brands increased. As of August 5, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 12250 yuan / ton, up or down + 1.66% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

 

Factor analysis:

 

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the price of styrene continued to fall at the beginning of this month. Affected by macro inflation factors such as weakening international crude oil, the market price fell. The center of gravity of the direct upstream pure benzene moves downward, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak. Some maintenance units are restarted, and the market inventory is expected to rise. The transaction of styrene market is not good. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

 

The market of acrylonitrile this week is weak due to the support of raw material cost, and the downstream demand is poor, so the propylene market is under pressure. The enterprises are not able to deliver goods, and the downstream customers mainly pay small bills, and the prices are seriously depressed. The enterprises are delivering goods, and the prices are successively lowered. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The supply of propylene market is loose. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the price of propylene is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

 

This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and some northeast enterprises bid for export to increase market supply. The external market continued to be depressed and reorganized, affecting the domestic market atmosphere. At the same time, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the market is “unable to recover” due to various negative factors. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may continue to settle at a low level.

 

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This week, the three upstream materials of ABS cost side fell at the same time, and the support of ABS cost side was poor. On the macro level, the price of international crude oil continues to fluctuate under the influence of macro inflation factors, which is bad for the oil and chemical industry chain. In terms of industrial load, although the operating rate of ABS enterprises was forced to drop in the early stage, it was heard this week that some production lines were expected to return to work. At the moment when the industrial load is still high and the on-site supply is abundant, the increase in load is likely to be negative for the future market. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, especially the main downstream home appliances and other industries have insufficient output, and the on-site demand is weak. The merchants reduce the price and take the order, and the offer follows the market. After the settlement at the end of last week, the pressure on enterprises and the midstream eased. This week, the spot price was narrow, but some low-end factory offers were consumed, and the resistance of the buyer camp gradually emerged.

 

Future forecast:

 

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS rose this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials fell, weakening the support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market dominates the market, and some bargain hunting operations support the market. It is expected that the ABS spot market may turn down in the short term.

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The cost support is general, and the formaldehyde Market in Shandong is consolidated

According to the bulk commodity list data of the business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong was volatile and consolidated this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1206.67 yuan / ton, and at the weekend, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong was 1213.33 yuan / ton. The current price rose 0.55% month on month, and the current price fell 9.68% year-on-year.

 

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formaldehyde

 

This week, the formaldehyde market price in Shandong was basically stable. From the above figure, we can see that the formaldehyde market has not fluctuated much in the past two months. This week, the market fluctuated and consolidated, rising slightly. As of August 4, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1200-1220 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has been shaken and consolidated, and the cost support is general. The formaldehyde market is basically stable under the influence of methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Just need to purchase is maintained. The formaldehyde market transaction is general, and the market fluctuation is not large.

 

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market has a slight upward trend, but the momentum is insufficient and the upward trend is weak. The main reasons are the following two aspects: one is that the cost has fallen significantly, and the chemical coal at the pit mouth has weakened; On the other hand, demand continues to be weak and market confidence is insufficient.

 

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This week, the methanol market fell first and then rose, mainly due to shock consolidation. The downstream plate factories are generally operating, and they are more wait-and-see about the formaldehyde market. The bargaining mood is strong, and the market inventory digestion is poor. It is difficult to improve the formaldehyde price, maintain the shipment at a low price, and the formaldehyde situation has little fluctuation.

 

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been shaken and sorted out, and the demand of downstream wood panel factories has continued to be weak. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of the business agency expect that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall in shock.

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The operating rate of enterprises fell, and the silicon material price continued to rise in July

In July, the domestic polysilicon market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, polysilicon rose by 15.97% on a monthly basis. The main reason for the rise of silicon material is the expansion of supply and demand gap caused by tight supply. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers raised the price support, and the high start-up rate of silicon wafers ensured the stable purchase volume; The price of superimposed battery chips has risen, the pressure on manufacturers’ profits has eased, and the price of imported silicon materials has also remained high. At the end of the month, the price range of single crystal dense materials was 282000-295000 yuan / ton.

 

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In terms of supply, the supply of silicon material enterprises continued to shrink this month compared with June. The operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers was significantly lower than that of last month. There were 12 domestic polysilicon production enterprises in production. In the whole July, four in Xinjiang and one in Luoyang carried out equipment maintenance or line overhaul, affecting part of the output. However, the increment brought by the expansion of Sichuan and Baotou manufacturers and Asian silicon industry is not enough to make up for the loss of output. On the whole, the domestic silicon production fell in July. The tight supply pattern is still the main driver of the upward trend of silicon materials.

 

Most large manufacturers’ orders in August have been signed at the beginning of the month, and some scattered orders have flowed out, which continues to push up the market reference price of silicon materials. At the end of the month, enterprises began to sign new orders in September, but it is worth noting that in the last week of the month, the price of silicon material showed signs of stopping rising, and later, manufacturers signed long orders or ushered in downstream bargaining space.

 

In terms of intermediate products, the prices of some large silicon wafer manufacturers were adjusted at the end of July. Longji silicon wafer announced on the 26th that the quotations of various silicon wafer models were raised. At present, the price of silicon wafers has reached an unprecedented high, which has formed a strong support for silicon materials and put great pressure on downstream battery chips and components. Silicon chips were operating at a high level throughout the month, with prices stabilizing. Near the end of the month, M6 rose 0.25 yuan, and the mainstream transaction price was stable at about 6.33 yuan / piece; M10 rose by 0.24 yuan, and the mainstream transaction price remained at about 7.54 yuan / piece, while the mainstream transaction price of G12 silicon wafer rose to about 9.93 yuan / piece.

 

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Battery chips and components: the price of battery chips also rose this month. The rise of battery chips was mainly concentrated at the end of the month. After the general rise in the price of silicon chips, Tongwei and other large manufacturers also followed suit. The price of battery chips of different models rose by 4-5 points /w in the month, or about 3-5%. Other enterprises followed the rise in prices, but the bargaining power of small and medium-sized battery chips was limited, and the delivery strength decreased significantly after the rise. The main reason is that the acceptance of downstream components is reduced, and the cost is squeezed again.

 

In the aftermarket forecast, polysilicon analysts of the business society believe that the shortage of silicon materials is the driving force behind the continuous rise in prices. At the same time, the pressure will continue to transmit to the downstream. The high cost and low supply in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain will gradually bring more and more heavy pressure to the downstream. The profits of cells and components are obviously squeezed, especially the profit space of terminal components is very limited. Due to the impact of high costs in the later stage, there may be a risk of demand decline. The silicon material price may be under pressure in the long term, and the silicon material price may remain high in the near future.

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High cost, low demand, weak operation of viscose staple fiber in July

In July, high cost and low demand. In July, the market of viscose staple fiber was weak, and the price fell slightly. The price of raw material dissolved pulp remains firm, the comprehensive cost remains high, and the pressure of manufacturers is difficult to ease, which still has strong support for the price of viscose staple fiber. Manufacturers actively support prices, most of them offer stable prices, and most of them say they would rather reduce production than reduce prices. Some viscose staple fiber factories adopt the method of reducing production speed, so as to alleviate the contradiction between the current market downturn and rising inventory, and delay their own pulp inventory consumption.

 

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In terms of demand, the traditional textile off-season entered in July, and the terminal demand showed no signs of improvement. In the short term, the willingness to take goods was not high. In addition, the high temperature in summer was coming, and the yarn enterprises started or showed a downward trend. The weak operation of the demand side restricted the rise of viscose staple fiber prices. The whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate, and viscose staple fiber shows a situation of price without market.

 

Downstream cotton yarn prices fell significantly, popularity was relatively low, trading was light, and the overall inventory of the industry was still rising.

 

Trend chart of viscose staple fiber price

 

According to the price monitoring of the business club, the price of viscose staple fiber fell slightly in July. As of July 29, 2022, the domestic ex factory quotation of 1.2d*38mm viscose staple fiber was 15400 yuan / ton, down 260 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, with a monthly decline of 1.66%.

 

Cotton yarn Market

 

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Trend chart of cotton yarn price

 

The price of cotton yarn fell significantly (30s, ring spinning, first-class products) with an average ex factory price of 18866 yuan / ton, down 367 yuan / ton from the beginning of the month, a monthly decrease of 1.91%.

 

Aftermarket forecast

 

The cost pressure is not reduced, and it is difficult for viscose staple fiber factories to make concessions, but the demand for textile terminals continues to be flat, the trading volume has always been general, and the downstream order taking volume has always been general, and the whole viscose staple fiber industry chain has entered a stalemate. Viscose staple fiber showed a trend of price without market, and factory inventory increased. Business analysts predicted that the price of viscose staple fiber would face downward pressure.

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Demand remained sluggish, and acetic acid prices continued to decline in July

According to the monitoring of bulk data of business agency, the price of acetic acid continued to decline in July. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid was 4125.00 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the price was 3512.50 yuan / ton. Within the month, the price was reduced by 612.50 yuan / ton, a decrease of 14.85%, and the price was reduced by 41.30% year-on-year.

 

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As of July 31, the details of acetic acid market prices in various regions in China during the month are as follows:

 

Regions, July 1, July 15, July 31

In South China, 3950 yuan / ton, 3650 yuan / ton, 3500 yuan / ton

In North China, 4050 yuan / ton, 3600 yuan / ton, 3500 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 4000 yuan / ton, 3650 yuan / ton, 3400 yuan / ton

Jiangsu Province, 3900 yuan / ton, 3550 yuan / ton, 3450 yuan / ton

Zhejiang Province, 4000 yuan / ton, 3650 yuan / ton, 3550 yuan / ton

The acetic acid market continued to decline in July, and the price continued to decline during the month. The market continued to be weak, mainly due to the continuous downturn in downstream demand and the weak demand in the month. The on-site trading was general, and a small amount was close to the rigid demand. On the supply side, the market supply was relatively sufficient, and the poor shipment of enterprises led to the increase of inventory pressure. In order to maintain the shipment Festival, manufacturers continued to sell at a profit, the quotation was lowered, the operator’s mentality was cautious and wait-and-see, coupled with the influence of buying up or not buying down, the acetic acid market was weak.

 

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The price of downstream ethyl acetate continued to fluctuate and decline in July, and the quotation at the end of the month was 7200-7400 yuan / ton, down 4.76%. The downstream demand is sluggish, and the purchasing enthusiasm is weak, resulting in a relatively high inventory of ethyl acetate. However, in terms of construction, the average operating rate of ethyl acetate in July is less than 40%, and the manufacturers have a strong attitude of supporting prices. Therefore, the decline is slower than that of acetic acid. Due to weak demand and insufficient support, the market continues to be weak.

 

Business analysts believe that the domestic acetic acid market is relatively sufficient, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is light. Because the price of acetic acid has fallen near the cost line, the mentality of the industry is temporarily stable and wait-and-see, and the decline of acetic acid has slowed down. It is expected that the short-term acetic acid market will be consolidated and operated, and attention will be paid to the downstream follow-up.

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