In May, the price of phthalic anhydride in neighboring countries remained weak and stabilized
As of May 19th, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries was 8916.67 yuan/ton, which fluctuated and fell by 0.19% compared to the price of phthalic anhydride on May 1st, which was 8933.33 yuan/ton. The current price is at a mid to high level within a one-year range, with a minimum annual value of 5533.33 yuan/ton and a maximum value of 9833.33 yuan/ton. The current price is above the median value of 7683.33 yuan/ton. In May, the price of phthalic anhydride from neighboring countries decreased, while the price of phthalic anhydride from naphthalene method increased.
In May, the phthalic anhydride market was strong in naphthalene and weak in neighboring countries
The core feature of the phthalic anhydride market in May was the significant strengthening of naphthalene phthalic anhydride and the weak consolidation of neighboring phthalic anhydride: the ex factory price of naphthalene phthalic anhydride in Hebei Province rose from 7500 yuan/ton on April 30 to 8000-8100 yuan/ton on May 18, with a cumulative increase of about 550 yuan/ton, or about 7.33%. The inventory of naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry is generally oversold, and the supply remains tight. The overall performance of phthalic anhydride shows a pattern of “weak consolidation, stable but not rising”. The neighboring method is suppressed by demand, while the naphthalene method is driven by supply shortages, and the price difference between the two is narrowing.
Stable cost support for phthalic anhydride
The neighboring benzene manufacturers are in a period of shutdown and maintenance, with reduced supply and stable prices; As the core raw material of phthalic anhydride, ortho benzene has been under price pressure recently; Industrial naphthalene supports the cost end of naphthalene based phthalic anhydride.
Phthalic anhydride supply first decreases and then stabilizes
In May, the operating rate of the phthalic anhydride industry showed a trend of first decreasing and then stabilizing: at the end of April and the beginning of May, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises ranged from 65% to 70%, and then the operating rate of neighboring plants gradually decreased due to profit suppression and maintenance. The overall operating rate of the industry was less than 60%. As of May 19th, the operating rate of phthalic anhydride remained stable at around 62%, and the operating rate of naphthalene method remained high and stable. The overall operating rate of phthalic anhydride enterprises has declined in May, and the supply of phthalic anhydride has tightened.
Demand side: Weak consolidation
The main downstream consumer area of phthalic anhydride, the plasticizer sector, is trending towards weakness: the production and sales of the terminal industry are not strong, the consumption of plasticizer suppliers is limited, and plasticizer prices are fluctuating and falling. Downstream procurement is mainly focused on essential needs, and inventory is replenished at low prices, resulting in a low overall purchasing willingness. The demand side support is limited, but essential procurement still provides a bottom line for phthalic anhydride prices, and industry inventory remains at a low level. The low inventory of phthalic anhydride manufacturers and the overall low inventory of the industry, coupled with tightening supply, have to some extent offset the pressure of insufficient demand.
Future forecast
According to the data analyst of Shengyi Society’s phthalic anhydride products, in the short term, on the cost side, due to the deadlock in the US Iran peace talks, crude oil prices are consolidating at a high level, while the prices of ortho benzene and industrial naphthalene are stabilizing, and the overall cost side is strong and stable. Supply side: The utilization rate of domestic phthalic anhydride production capacity has declined, the market supply is tight, and coupled with the widespread overselling of inventory in the naphthalene phthalic anhydride industry, it has provided strong support for neighboring phthalic anhydride. Demand side: The plasticizer sector is operating weakly, with prices of DOP and DBP being weak, only supported by essential procurement. Overall, in May, the phthalic anhydride market showed a trend of “naphthalene method strengthening, neighboring method stabilizing, and overall weak consolidation”, with low industry inventory and strong demand support forming a pulling force. It is expected to maintain a weak and stable pattern in the short term, but there is still further upward space for naphthalene method phthalic anhydride prices, which may stimulate neighboring method phthalic anhydride prices to recover in advance.

According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the styrene market continued to decline this week. The average price at the beginning of the week was 9560 yuan/ton, and the average price over the weekend was 9300 yuan/ton, with a decrease of 2.72% during the week.

Macro perspective: On May 14th, international crude oil futures almost closed flat. The settlement price of the June WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $101.17 per barrel, an increase of $0.15 or 0.2%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in July was $105.72 per barrel, an increase of $0.09 and 0.1%.
On the cost side: This week, the pure benzene market has weakened and fallen, and the overall supply and demand expectations for pure benzene are still tight. Port inventories continue to decline. At present, there are still significant differences between the United States and Iran on the content of the peace talks, geopolitical fluctuations, short-term strong oil prices, and support for pure benzene reserves. However, due to the drag of demand, the upward trend is weak, and we are paying attention to the dynamics of the US Iran situation.
Supply and demand side: Some units are operating at reduced loads, leading to further expansion of losses in the styrene industry. The overall operating load of downstream 3S has slightly decreased, and the market mentality is weak.
Market forecast: The international situation is currently unclear, and oil prices will remain high and fluctuate. It is expected that the short-term market price of styrene will fluctuate with the high cost side, and attention should be paid to the geopolitical situation and changes in equipment.

1、 Price trend

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 30th, the average quotation price of domestic high-quality DMF enterprises was 5760 yuan/ton. In April, the DMF market price showed a trend of first rising and then falling. At the beginning of the month, due to the maintenance of some equipment and the phased recovery of downstream demand, DMF prices began to slowly rise, and enterprise quotations gradually increased, creating a lively market trading atmosphere.
2、 Cause analysis
Market supply: The supply of DMF in the market is gradually increasing, but demand growth is weak, and the driving force for price increases is insufficient. A pullback has begun to occur, and by the end of the month, DMF prices have significantly fallen from the mid month high point. The overall price fluctuation is large, and there are differences in price performance in different regions. East China, as the main consumer and trading region, has more obvious price fluctuations; Prices in North China are relatively stable, but they are also influenced by overall market trends.
Raw material cost: The main raw materials for DMF are methanol and liquid ammonia. In April, the price of methanol fluctuated greatly, with a slight increase at the beginning of the month, but then a decline. The price of liquid ammonia remained relatively stable, but the overall cost still provided some support for DMF prices. The fluctuation of raw material costs poses certain challenges to the cost control of DMF production enterprises.
Downstream demand: Polyurethane is one of the main downstream application areas of DMF. In April, the demand for polyurethane industry showed a flat performance, and the demand growth of terminal furniture, automotive and other industries was slow, resulting in insufficient demand for polyurethane. As a result, the procurement volume of DMF by polyurethane production enterprises remained relatively stable and did not show significant growth. Leather industry: The demand for DMF in the leather industry is also relatively weak. Affected by environmental policies and market competition, some leather enterprises have low operating rates, resulting in a decrease in demand for DMF. At the same time, the export of leather industry products is facing certain pressure, further suppressing the demand for DMF. Electronics industry: The demand for DMF in the electronics industry is relatively small, but there was no significant growth in April. The products in the electronics industry are updated and replaced quickly, and the market demand changes greatly. DMF The demand stability is poor.
3、 Future forecast
DMF analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the situation of sufficient market supply is difficult to change in the short term, and downstream demand is also unlikely to improve significantly in the short term. If raw material prices continue to decline and DMF costs further decrease, prices may continue to decline. However, if downstream demand improves, the magnitude of price decline may be limited to a certain extent.

1、 Market Trend Review
In April 2026, the domestic PA6 market showed a trend of high peak and then falling back and oscillating. At the beginning of the month, the market continued its upward trend with strong support from raw material costs. As of April 7th, the benchmark price of PA6 in Shengyi Society has risen to 14600 yuan/ton, an increase of 3.55% from the beginning of the month, setting a new high for the year. However, in the middle and late months, the market turned to a weak oscillation after a high-level decline. As of April 21st, the benchmark price of PA6 closed at 13866.67 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.65% from the beginning of the month and a pullback of about 5% from the high point of the year. As of April 28th, the benchmark price of PA6 has further dropped to 13400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 4.96% from the beginning of the month. Despite the monthly pullback, from an annual perspective, the price remains in the historical high range (with a maximum value of 14600 yuan/ton and a minimum value of 9066.67 yuan/ton). ‌
2、 Analysis of influencing factors
In terms of cost:
At the beginning of the month, the price of upstream raw material caprolactam remained firm, and the benchmark price of caprolactam in Shengyi Society increased from 13077.50 yuan/ton to 13357.50 yuan/ton, forming a sustained cost transmission and strong support for PA6. But after mid April, cost support significantly weakened. The weekly closing price of Sinopec Caprolactam was lowered by 230 yuan/ton to 13800 yuan/ton on April 13th, and further lowered by 150 yuan/ton to 13650 yuan/ton on April 20th. Although the final settlement price for April was set at 13570 yuan/ton, an increase of 940 yuan/ton from the previous month, indicating a long-term tight supply in the raw material market, the continuous downward adjustment of the weekly settlement price and the loosening of the benchmark price (13112.50 yuan/ton on April 21) have led to a marginal weakening of the cost support for PA6, becoming a key factor in the price decline. ‌
In terms of supply and demand:
The industry’s operating load has increased, and the release of new production capacity and the restoration of maintenance equipment have driven supply growth. The demand side has always been weak. The downstream textile and chemical fiber industries have limited acceptance of high priced raw materials, and procurement is mainly based on “replenishment of essential needs and procurement as needed”, without centralized stockpiling. There is no significant rebound in terminal orders, and the profits of textile industry enterprises in the first quarter have declined year-on-year, further confirming the sluggish demand. The market presents a stalemate pattern of “strong cost support and weak demand follow-up”, with high price transaction resistance. In the latter half of the year, downstream factories have no intention of replenishing inventory, and traders are selling at low prices to recoup funds, exacerbating the weak market atmosphere.
3、 Short term forecast for the future market
In the future, it is expected that the PA6 market will maintain a narrow consolidation and weak oscillation pattern in the short term, and there is still a possibility of a slight downward shift in the price center. The marginal weakening of cost support and sustained weak demand form a game, and price trends will highly depend on changes in raw material prices and the actual recovery progress of downstream orders.

1、 Price trend

As of April 24th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 7516 yuan/ton. In early April, the market price of cyclohexane showed a relatively stable trend. Due to the relatively balanced supply and demand relationship in the market, the price fluctuation was small. However, in mid April, due to the fluctuation of international crude oil prices and the maintenance of some regional facilities, the price of cyclohexane began to show signs of increase. Some enterprises raised the ex factory price of cyclohexane by around 100-200 yuan/ton. In late April, with the gradual recovery of market supply and the weak growth of downstream demand, the upward trend of prices slowed down, and some regions even experienced a slight correction in prices.
2、 Market analysis
Market wise: In April, the trading activity of the cyclohexane market was generally average. In the early stages of price increases, traders and downstream enterprises showed increased purchasing enthusiasm and market trading volume. However, as prices continued to rise, downstream enterprises began to adopt a cautious attitude towards high priced cyclohexane, gradually reducing their purchasing volume. Some small downstream enterprises even reduced their production scale to cope with the pressure of rising costs.
In terms of demand: Nylon is one of the main downstream products of cyclohexane. In April, the overall demand performance of the nylon industry was average. Although the operating rate of nylon production enterprises in some regions has increased, due to slow growth in end market demand and high inventory pressure, the purchase volume of cyclohexane by enterprises has not increased significantly. Some enterprises have started to seek other alternatives or optimize production processes in order to reduce costs, reducing the use of cyclohexane. Solvent industry: The demand for cyclohexane in the solvent industry is relatively stable, but it was also affected to some extent in April. Due to the continuous strengthening of environmental policies, some solvent production enterprises are facing environmental pressure, and their production scale is limited, resulting in a decrease in demand for cyclohexane, The competition from other solvent products in the market has also had a certain impact on the demand for cyclohexane.
Production situation: In April, the overall operating rate of domestic cyclohexane production enterprises fluctuated. In the first ten days, some enterprises’ equipment operated normally, and the market supply was relatively stable. However, starting from mid month, some companies carried out equipment maintenance, resulting in a decrease in market supply. For example, a large cyclohexane production enterprise in East China conducted a 10 day equipment maintenance, causing a certain degree of tension in cyclohexane supply in the region. In the latter half of the year, as the maintenance equipment gradually resumed production, market supply gradually eased.
3、 Future forecast
In the short term, the price of cyclohexane may continue to fluctuate. If the price of raw material benzene continues to rise, the cost of cyclohexane will further increase, and the price may continue to rise. However, if downstream demand continues to be sluggish and market supply gradually increases, the price may face downward pressure.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of April 17, 2026, the reference price of n-butanol in Shandong Province, China was 8600 yuan/ton, a decrease of 66 yuan or 0.77% from April 13 (reference price of n-butanol was 8666 yuan/ton).

1、 Price Trend Review
This week (April 13-17), the price of n-butanol in Shandong’s market showed a weak downward trend, with the center of gravity of n-butanol market prices slightly shifting downwards and the focus of negotiations moving towards relaxation. As of April 17th, the reference price for n-butanol market in Shandong region is around 8400-8700 yuan/ton.
2、 Analysis of Core Influencing Factors
Loose cost support, average market trading
At present, the overall n-butanol market in Shandong region is weak, and the cost side propylene price is falling, which has loosened the cost support for n-butanol. Downstream users of n-butanol urgently need to purchase at low prices, and the overall trading atmosphere in the market is average. The focus of transactions is mostly on the low-end, and high-level transmission is hindered. n-butanol factories and suppliers are actively shipping to maintain low inventory.
future market forecast
Supply and demand direction analysis
At present, the supply and demand of n-butanol in Shandong are weak, and the support for n-butanol has loosened. The wait-and-see sentiment in the market is gradually increasing, and downstream users are cautious in stocking up. In the short term, it is expected that the n-butanol market in Shandong will mainly be weak and volatile, and specific changes in supply and demand news need to be closely monitored.

1、 Price trend
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong Province first rose and then fell this week, and overall the price has declined. On Monday, the price of pure benzene was 8536.67 yuan/ton, and on Friday it was 8420 yuan/ton, with a 1.37% decrease in price during the week.
2、 Market analysis
Pure benzene: This week, the market price of pure benzene in Shandong region first rose and then fell, and overall the price has declined. Recently, due to geopolitical factors, international crude oil futures prices have fallen, and confidence in the pure benzene market has weakened. This week, Sinopec’s refineries in East China, South China, and Central China have lowered the price of pure benzene by 300 yuan/ton. The latest quotation is 8700 yuan/ton, which will be implemented on April 9th. Today, Shandong’s local refining market maintained stable prices, with a weak and stable trend, while prices in the East China market fell.
This week, Sinopec lowered its price by 300 yuan/ton to 8700 yuan/ton.
Downstream aspects
3、 Future forecast
Crude oil futures: On April 9th, international crude oil futures closed higher. The settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $97.87 per barrel, an increase of $3.46 or 3.7%. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June was $95.92 per barrel, an increase of $1.17 or 1.2%.
Foreign pure benzene: On April 9th, FOB Korea rose by $47 to $1156 per ton, and CFR China rose by $47 to $1167 per ton. FOB Rotterdam rose 42 to $1181 per ton, FOB USG rose 16 to 481 cents per gallon.
Overall expectation: The short-term pure benzene market is expected to be strong and volatile, with cautious trading. Observe the cost and demand side news. Continue to monitor the trends of crude oil and external markets, as well as the impact of changes in pure benzene and downstream equipment dynamics and demand on the price of pure benzene.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market will fluctuate upward in March 2026. From March 1st to 31st, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 9993.33 yuan/ton to 18066.67 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 80.79% during the period.
In March 2026, the domestic butadiene market showed an overall trend of “strong upward trend mainly accompanied by a brief pullback”, with a continuous upward trend throughout the month. The strengthening of costs and the tightening of supply sources formed a resonance positive effect. Even though downstream demand followed suit weakly, it still supported a significant price surge. Although there was a brief small pullback during this period, it did not change the overall upward trend.
Cost aspect: The cost side became the core driving force behind the increase in butadiene prices in March. The ongoing escalation of geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East has raised concerns about global crude oil supply, causing international oil prices to soar and maintain high levels. As a byproduct of ethylene cracking, the production capacity of butadiene is highly dependent on the naphtha cracking route, and its price is deeply linked to the trends of crude oil and naphtha. The sharp rise in crude oil directly drives up the overall cost of the refining industry chain, while the simultaneous strengthening of naphtha drives up the rigid increase in butadiene production costs. The obstruction of shipping circulation further increases the cost of raw material imports, puts pressure on the production of refining enterprises, and indirectly solidifies the foundation of raw material support. As of March 31st, the settlement price of the May WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $101.38 per barrel; The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in June was $103.97 per barrel.
Supply side:
This month, multiple major butadiene plants in China have entered a maintenance cycle, and the overall operating load of the industry continues to decline, with a significant contraction in spot production. The mainstream production facilities in overseas Asia have experienced simultaneous reductions and force majeure situations, coupled with disruptions in shipping channels, resulting in a significant reduction in the amount of imported goods arriving at the port and insufficient replenishment efforts. Domestic port inventory continues to be at a low level, with a shortage of spot circulation resources in the market. The strong sentiment of suppliers to hold back prices and sell is further driving the market upward.
Demand side:
Faced with the rapid and significant increase in raw material prices, the downstream synthetic rubber industry chain is under obvious pressure, and production profits are squeezed. Most enterprises choose to reduce losses and seek safety. Downstream terminals have strong resistance to high-level raw materials, and they adopt a multi-dimensional rigid demand small order mode for procurement, with insufficient willingness to stock up in bulk. Only a few segments of downstream demand remain stable, making it difficult to hedge against the overall weak demand pattern. The overall performance of the demand side is weak, which has a certain restraining effect on the upward trend of the market.
In March 2026, the domestic butadiene rubber market emerged from a wide range of independent fluctuations and significant surges, breaking the previous consolidation pattern. The price center of gravity shifted significantly during the month, mainly driven by the strong pull of the cost side and the expectation of tight supply. Downstream demand follow-up was cautious, showing an overall operating characteristic of “cost bottoming out, supply reluctance to sell, and rigid demand follow-up”. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of March 31st, the market situation of Shunding rubber in East China has slightly declined. International crude oil prices are consolidating at a high level, and the overall cost support of butadiene rubber is strong. However, downstream inquiries are deadlocked due to high prices, and merchants are offering discounts of 200-300 tons. At present, Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are priced at 17600-17800 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 17400 to 17650 yuan/ton.

Market forecast:
The geopolitical situation on the cost side remains uncertain, and the high support of crude oil is difficult to quickly dissipate in the short term; The restart rhythm of the supply side maintenance device is slow, and the tight spot situation is temporarily difficult to completely alleviate. However, the pressure of downstream losses continues, and the willingness to start production and purchase is unlikely to rebound significantly. Demand side constraints will still exist. Overall, the unilateral surge in the market may come to an end, and the long and short forces have entered a stage of equilibrium game. It is expected that the market will mainly fluctuate in the high range, and the focus will be on tracking cost fluctuations, equipment production and maintenance progress, and downstream actual transaction follow-up changes.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1 to 31, 2026, the domestic mixed xylene market showed a broad rise at the beginning of the month followed by a decline and an overall upward trend, with a significant increase in the price center throughout the month. From March 1st to 31st, the domestic mixed xylene market price rose from 5670 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to 8007.5 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a cumulative price increase of 41.11% during the period. After a rapid rise at the beginning of the month, the price experienced a stage of correction, and gradually stabilized and rebounded afterwards. The overall trend remained upward, and the monthly closing performance was strong.
In March 2026, the overall performance of the domestic mixed xylene market showed a trend of “broad rise at the beginning of the month, fluctuating and falling midway, and the overall center of gravity rising”, with significant price fluctuations. The core was driven by strong crude oil on the cost side and tight support from the supply side. At the same time, the pattern of downstream demand pressure formed certain constraints on the increase. Under the interweaving of multiple factors, the market achieved a significant increase throughout the month, and the price center of gravity shifted significantly upward compared to the previous month.
Cost aspect:
The overall trend of the international crude oil market in March was strong, becoming the core cost driving force supporting the upward trend of toluene prices. The geopolitical situation in the Middle East continues to be tense, with significant disruptions to regional supply chain circulation. The tight global crude oil supply situation has yet to ease, and international oil prices have continued to rise and maintain a high operating trend. The significant increase in upstream crude oil prices has driven the simultaneous strengthening of naphtha related raw materials, further raising the production and processing costs of toluene. The periodic fluctuations in the crude oil market were also transmitted to the toluene market, causing a short-term pullback after the toluene market surged at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, as crude oil strengthened again, it returned to an upward trend, and the overall cost support continued throughout the month.
Supply side:
In March, the overall supply of mixed xylene in China showed a tightening trend, providing stable support for market prices and working together with the cost side to promote price increases. Due to multiple factors such as high raw material costs and equipment maintenance schedules, several major refineries and local refineries in China have lowered their production loads. Additionally, multiple units have entered a phase of shutdown and maintenance, resulting in a significant reduction in the production of domestically produced mixed xylene sources. At the same time, due to the obstruction of international shipping and the impact of the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, the import volume of mixed xylene to ports has significantly decreased, and external sources of supply are insufficient, further exacerbating the tight domestic spot circulation situation. Affected by tight supply and cost support, on-site traders have a strong mentality of being reluctant to sell and maintaining prices. Their quotations continue to rise, and some merchants even suspend low-priced shipments. The reduction in spot circulation further amplifies the momentum of price increases. Coupled with the panic buying sentiment caused by the surge in crude oil prices at the beginning of the month, mixed xylene prices have achieved a wide range of gains in the short term. Although there has been a pullback in the middle, the pattern of tight supply has not fundamentally changed and continues to provide support for prices.

Demand side:
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from March 1st to 30th, the domestic PX market price showed a strong upward trend followed by a slight downward trend. As of March 31st, the executed price in the four major regions of East China, North China, Central China, and South China was 9700 yuan/ton, a significant increase from the price of 7600 yuan/ton on March 1st. The main units of Yangzi Petrochemical and Zhenhai Petrochemical operated stably, and the product sales situation was normal.
In terms of international markets, from March 1st to 30th, the prices of para xylene (PX) in the Asian region fluctuated upwards, with a closing price range of 902-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 924-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China for the whole month. As of March 30th, the closing prices of the Asian PX market were 1250-1252 US dollars/ton FOB Korea and 1275-1277 US dollars/ton CFR China, with a significant increase in prices compared to March 1st, and the overall fluctuation range was quite obvious.
In March, the overall performance of downstream demand for mixed xylene in China was under pressure. Although there was rigid demand support, it failed to keep up with the pace of price increases, which formed a certain constraint on market growth. The core downstream PX industry has shown a strong trend this month, driven by the rise in raw material prices such as crude oil and mixed xylene. Domestic PX prices have risen significantly, and Sinopec Sales Company has adjusted PX prices multiple times. Although there was a slight decrease at the end of the month, the overall PX industry is still at a high level. At the same time, the PX industry is in the traditional maintenance season, and some main equipment has reduced load or stopped maintenance, resulting in periodic fluctuations in the procurement demand for mixed xylene. Although there is rigid procurement support, the overall procurement strength is limited, and it has not been able to effectively drive the price of mixed xylene. The recovery pace of downstream polyester and textile terminal markets is slow, and the follow-up of terminal orders is weak. The PTA industry is forced to increase prices by raw material costs, but processing fees are at a low level, and profit pressure is obvious. The procurement of PX and mixed xylene is mainly based on essential needs, and the willingness to actively replenish is insufficient. The purchasing mentality tends to be cautious. In addition, the demand for mixed xylene in other downstream fields such as oil blending and solvents has been significantly suppressed by the continuous rise in prices. Enterprises tend to purchase on demand and reduce inventory backlog, resulting in an overall demand side characterized by “rigid demand support and weak follow-up”. This has formed a game with tightening supply and strong cost side, which to some extent constrains the increase in mixed xylene prices.

Market forecast:
Based on the three core fundamentals of cost, supply, and demand in the mixed xylene market in March, it is expected that the domestic mixed xylene market will maintain a high level of volatile operation in April, with overall strength but limited growth. The core revolves around the supply-demand game. On the cost side, the geopolitical conflicts in the Middle East are difficult to completely ease in the short term. International crude oil prices will continue to operate at high levels, while naphtha prices will remain at a synchronized high level. The cost support foundation for mixed xylene is still solid and difficult to loosen significantly. On the supply side, the impact of maintenance on domestic refinery facilities has not completely subsided, and the resumption pace of some facilities is relatively slow. The replenishment of imported goods is still relatively limited, and the pattern of tight spot prices in the market is likely to continue. The mentality of holders of goods to support prices will still exist. On the demand side, downstream PX plant maintenance will continue for some time, and procurement demand is unlikely to significantly increase. The recovery of the polyester and textile terminal markets still takes time, and the problem of insufficient terminal orders is difficult to improve quickly. Downstream enterprises still have limited acceptance of high-level raw materials, and the pattern of rigid procurement is difficult to change, which will continue to suppress the upward trend of the market. Overall, the mixed xylene market in April is expected to operate in a game of strong costs, tight supply, and weak demand, with a high probability of maintaining high volatility and minor adjustments. The focus will be on the trend of crude oil prices and the recovery of downstream demand.

In March, the domestic PX market prices rose significantly, with an average price of 7600 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 10200 yuan/ton at the end of the month, an increase of 34.21% and a year-on-year increase of 41.67%.
Double benefits for the PX market on both the cost and supply sides
1. Crude oil and naphtha skyrocket
The escalation of conflicts in the Middle East has hindered shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, causing a significant increase in the crude oil market. Asian naphtha prices have risen by over 60%, resulting in a strong increase in costs. In addition to the interruption of naphtha supply in the Middle East, refineries in South Korea, Japan, China and other countries have proactively reduced their production due to raw material shortages, resulting in a decline in PX operating rates and supply contraction from expectations to reality. Oman, Kuwait, Israel and other Middle Eastern PX facilities have been shut down due to conflicts, further tightening global supply.
2. Centralized maintenance of Asian refineries: supply side ‘adding insult to injury’
March to May is the traditional maintenance season for domestic petrochemicals. Zhejiang Petrochemical, Sinochem Quanzhou, Fujian United and other units have reduced their load, Ningbo Daxie unit has shut down, and the domestic PX operating rate has dropped below 85%. In addition, due to the centralized maintenance of Korean PX facilities such as S-OIL, SK, and Hanhua, as of late March, the operating load of PX in Asia has dropped to 83%, and in China it has dropped to 87%. The reduction in supply is favorable for the PX market.
3. Tight supply and demand pattern: accelerated destocking, supporting prices
PX inventory decreased for three consecutive weeks in March, indicating a strong bullish sentiment in the market. In addition, the downstream demand for PTA remains stable, and as a direct downstream of PX, PTA’s operating rate rebounded to 80% in March, forming a rigid demand for PX and widening the supply-demand gap, resulting in a significant increase in the PX market.
Market forecast: In the short term, the PX market is expected to experience strong fluctuations at high levels, with intensified volatility and a tendency to rise but not fall. The key factors to consider are whether the geopolitical conflict in the Middle East has eased and the recovery of shipping in the Strait of Hormuz; Progress of load reduction/maintenance and restoration of raw material supply in Asian refineries.