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This week’s narrow volatility in the Styrene Market (7.08-7.12)

Price Trend

Styrene prices fell this week. According to data from business associations, the prices of sample enterprises were 9016.67 yuan/ton on Monday (July 08), 8966.67 yuan/ton on Friday (July 12), a decline of 0.55%, and 19.73% compared with the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products:

This week, the market price of styrene is narrow and the market supply is general. On July 08, East China Styrene closed at 9000 yuan/ton, and on July 12, East China Styrene closed at 8900-9000 yuan/ton, down by about 100 yuan/ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s canning price. On July 08, South China Styrene closed at 9,200 yuan/ton for delivery, and on July 12, South China Styrene closed at 9,100 yuan/ton for delivery, down by 100 yuan/ton for delivery at above factories. The styrene market fluctuated narrowly. By Friday, the stock of East China’s styrene port declined, but the overall supply of styrene increased slightly. Overall, this week, it fell steadily and moderately.

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Industry chain:

Upstream crude oil market strengthened this week, ethylene rose slightly, pure benzene rose sharply, styrene production cost support gradually improved. Downstream enterprises, temporarily maintaining just demand, wait-and-see majority, continue to bear the dual pressure of cost and terminal sales, start-up rate decline more or less, from the overall start-up rate level, still maintain low demand-oriented. The supply and demand deadlock is difficult to break, and the market lacks strong support.

3. Prospects for the Later Period

The periphery remained volatile this week, oil prices rose over the weekend, and the impact of the periphery on the petrochemical market was mostly negative. Domestic production enterprises have stabilized and have followed the market downward quotation operation. Businessmen in the market have increased their wait-and-see atmosphere and divergent market trends in different places. Styrene business analysts believe that in the current market conditions, upstream cost prices are temporarily stable, downstream terminal digestion pressure, receipt intention is weak, styrene support weakened, and market bearish sentiment spread. There is no strong support in the styrene market as a whole, and the price of styrene is expected to remain narrow next week.

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China’s domestic ethanol market has different ups and downs (7.8-7.12)

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week was 5370 yuan/ton, which was 1.45% lower than the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. East China and Central China downward. Large factories in Northeast China mostly enter the inspection and repair, enterprises mostly take turns to repair, enterprise inventory is still acceptable, enterprise quotation performance is firm, downstream centralized procurement is basically over. Henan Province suffered from the impact of low-price goods in Northeast China, the price fell slightly; Sichuan enterprises quoted stable prices, large factories had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and short-term market prices remained firm; East China also suffered from the impact of low-price goods in Northeast China, the price of cassava continued to rise, enterprises in East China continued to reduce construction, and Su. With the passage of time, the amount of raw molasses in South China continues to decrease, enterprises are unwilling to sell low-end prices slightly increase, water-free sales in North China is still acceptable, and the Northeast general-grade supply will soon enter South China.

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Industry chain: Upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Jilin region of Northeast China closed at 1730 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand keeps rising, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava enters the starch market more and dried chips export less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars/ton, theoretical port price in eastern China is 1900-1920 yuan/ton. Domestic enterprises are affected by weak downstream demand. Parking to avoid the market, raw material procurement is not good. Downstream, the price of ethyl acetate in East China rose by 2.62% on Thursday, 5,215 yuan per ton, compared with last week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Since this week, Northeast big factories have stepped into overhaul one after another. Supply reduction has boosted the market or reflected in the next week’s market. However, considering the current inventory situation and demand situation of liquor enterprises, there is little room for short-term pull-up operation, and the market is expected to remain stable. Under summer weather, terminal chemical enterprises are insufficient to enter the market, liquor is also in the off-season of sales, the demand for ethanol shows a downward trend, affecting the bidding sentiment of the operators. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to remain stable in the short term.

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The price of yellow phosphorus has surged unprecedentedly

On July 12, 2019, the concept stocks of phosphorus chemical industry in the market were really excellent, with an average increase of 6.6%. Among them, Chengxing shares, six chemical companies rose and stopped, and other shares followed. Among them, Chengxing shares are already three contiguous boards, leading the board to become a hot spot in the market. In the current market which lacks the hot spots of rotation, the emergence of new concepts is often warmly sought after by the market.

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The logic behind the concept of phosphorus chemical industry is simple and violent enough. That is the unprecedented surge in yellow phosphorus prices in the domestic market. According to the Wind database, yellow phosphorus prices were still 15,500 yuan per ton on Tuesday, but soared on Wednesday to 17,000 yuan per ton, and reached 20,000 yuan per ton on Thursday, yesterday. In just three days, the price of yellow phosphorus soared by 4,500 yuan per ton, up 29%.

Generally speaking, yellow phosphorus production does not have strong barriers, or even very simple. In short, we only need to put phosphate ore, silica and coke into the electric furnace in a certain proportion, decompose and reduce at 1000 degrees of high temperature, and then cool and rinse the phosphorus vapor and dust to get yellow phosphorus.

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Through this production process, we can know that one of the main costs of yellow phosphorus production is electricity. The electricity consumption per ton of yellow phosphorus is about 15,000 degrees, and because of the low cost of hydropower, yellow phosphorus production prefers water and electricity. Therefore, the price of yellow phosphorus is generally affected by electricity and Hydropower charges, and there are seasonal fluctuations, such as the high water period in June-August, the low production cost of yellow phosphorus, the high start-up rate of enterprises, the increase of supply, and the price is relatively stable. Therefore, it is still early July, and the soaring price of yellow phosphorus in recent days is obviously not affected by the season.

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As mentioned above, the production of yellow phosphorus likes to use water and electricity, so the producers of yellow phosphorus prefer to open their factories in areas with regional advantages, such as along rivers. Because along the river, there will be black-hearted businessmen in order to save money by secretly discharging production waste directly into the river. Recently, CCTV Focus Interview exposed the pollution problem of yellow phosphorus plants in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The tail gas from electric furnace of yellow phosphorus plants was directly discharged into the atmosphere, and wastewater containing phosphorus was discharged wantonly.

This is a big problem. According to Cao Liping, Director of the Bureau of Ecological Environment Law Enforcement, the Yangtze River Economic Zone concentrates most of China’s phosphorus chemical production capacity, and the regulation of “three phosphorus” is one of the most important elements in the battle of protecting and restoring the Yangtze River. The Ministry of Ecological Environment strives to find out the quantity of “three phosphorus” in two years and complete the environmental improvement of yellow phosphorus enterprises first this year.

We know that in Yunnan-Guichuan region of the Yangtze River Basin, the yellow phosphorus production capacity accounts for 90% of the country’s total.

Therefore, in the current state vigorously grasp the general trend of environmental protection, the irregular yellow phosphorus production enterprises directly hit the muzzle. Therefore, we can foresee that in the future, there will be a large number of irregular yellow phosphorus production enterprises will be shut down or rectified in the near future. At the same time, with the end of the flood season, supply will be further tightened. In addition, the current domestic market stock is not much, yellow phosphorus prices are bound to rise. Therefore, at present, many enterprises in production are reluctant to sell, so they will not report directly. And the quoted companies directly overwhelmed the price, so there is a two-day surge in yellow phosphorus prices.

For investment opportunities, if the price of yellow phosphorus is still in its current position or moving higher, then the most beneficial thing is to have a large amount of yellow phosphorus stocks, or enterprises whose production of yellow phosphorus is unaffected. In addition, the downstream of yellow phosphorus is mainly used for phosphoric acid, phosphate, red phosphorus, phosphorus trichloride, phosphorus pentosulfide and so on. Driven by the rising price of yellow phosphorus, it is expected to drive up the prices of organophosphorus herbicides such as glyphosate, glyphosate, phosphorus ammonium, and organophosphorus insecticides such as chlorpyrifos and trichlorfon. We can keep an eye on the subject matter.

In addition, other chemical products manufacturers with similar production modes as yellow phosphorus may face similar situations in the future, so we might as well study them in depth.

Dry Aluminum Fluoride Market Price Up this Week (7.7-7.13)

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 9,933 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 9,766 yuan/ton. The price was 1.71% higher than that of last week.

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II. Market Analysis

Aluminum fluoride prices remained stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is 9600-10200 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is around 9500-10500 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Zerun Energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 9500 yuan/ton for aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Co., Ltd. to 10800 yuan/ton for aluminium fluoride, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 9800 yuan/ton for aluminium fluoride.

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Industry Chain: Hydrofluoric acid price trend rose slightly this week. Enterprises reflect the current shortage of spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the situation of on-site goods has improved. Some enterprises have low start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant, small rise in ex-factory price. Recent start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, on-site supply is tight, and the current southern region. The main stream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiations is 12000-12500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11500-12500 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has risen slightly, while driving the price of downstream aluminum fluoride Market to rise.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid, the upstream raw material, continues to rise, and the price of Aluminum fluoride is expected to continue to rise next week.

Crude benzol Market rose this week (7.1-7.5)

Price trends:

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: This week’s crude benzol Market offer rose sharply, the mainstream market offer in 3650-3910 yuan/ton, a high rise of 210 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Mainly due to the rise of pure benzene external market, Sinopec’s listed price, downstream hydrobenzene quotation, the overall crude benzene industry chain is bullish, this week’s bidding price has risen sharply, coking enterprises are active in taking goods, price sentiment is obvious, favorable centralized release, downstream demand is good, replenishment is positive. In terms of supply, in recent years, the intensity of environmental protection inspection is relatively strong. Construction in Shandong is generally started at – 50% or so. In some areas of Shanxi, intermittent production restrictions are imposed, and the supply of crude benzene market is on the short side.

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Industry Chain: Crude Oil: This week’s oil price shocks rose, compared with last week’s overall rise. US crude oil was close to $60 per barrel due to the sharp decline in US crude oil stocks and the negative impact of the decline in refined oil stocks. Pure benzene: Domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene rose 50-200 yuan for three consecutive days, sustained by the good downstream styrene market last week and the decline of pure benzene port stocks. Beginning on Thursday, as most contracts have been completed, the market is not hot to catch up with, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the pure benzene market recovers flat.

3. Trend forecast:

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With the increase of summer temperature, the environmental protection situation will be more severe, and the crude benzene market will be on the tight side in the future. Although the prices of pure benzene, toluene and xylene have risen at present, the downstream cost pressure is still large, which will somewhat limit the increase of crude benzene. It is expected that the increase of crude benzene will be around 120-150 yuan/ton next week.

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The dilemma between rise and fall for MDI Market (7.1-7.5)

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market is in a dilemma. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI was 1230 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 1240 yuan/ton at the weekend. The market price of aggregated MDI rose by 0.81% in a week, which was 33.57% lower than that of the same period last year.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: This week aggregate MDI market prices fluctuate slightly, the overall temperature is not hot, there is no market value. This week’s supply side: Cosco announced that this week’s guidance price of 12,500 yuan/ton was stable compared with last week, and there was not much supply; Huntsman and Wanhua markets were informed of a 3% discount supply, and the supply was tightened; East Cao Ruian market was informed that the guidance price was not clear, spot was scarce; import spot supply was scarce recently. The overall supply side of the market is tightening. This week’s demand side: the downstream early inventory is sufficient, this week’s inquiry is not good, mainly small trading orders. In addition, recent environmental inspections have begun, which lasted from the end of June to the end of August. Strict inspection of foaming agents will correspondingly inhibit the market demand of rigid foams in northern China. Other industries are in the off-season of demand, and the actual market demand has not been boosted. Traders this week: market quotations are mostly stable, low-price shipments are not willing, but sells mainly.

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On the market side, as of Friday (7.15), the aggregated MDI market in North China remained stable. Although the overall supply side of the supplier is tightened and the shipment pressure of the holder is not high, the market demand has been weak to follow up. In addition, the environmental protection inspection has restrained the hard bubble demand market in the north, and the market negotiation price has been slightly loosened. East China aggregates weak shocks in the MDI market. The downstream demand follow-up is weak, the main shipment is accompanied by the holder, the inquiries are scarce, and the confidence of the operators in the future market is insufficient. Consolidation of MDI market segments in South China. The market as a whole is still dominated by weaknesses, with the shipment of goods accompanied by the holder as the main factor, and the negotiation of actual orders as the main factor, with just a small order required.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene has been rising rapidly. Data released earlier this month showed that in June, China imported only 20,000 tons of pure benzene from Korea, while in the first five months of 2019, the average monthly export volume from Korea to China was more than 150,000. Pure benzene from Korea generally accounts for more than half of China’s total imports. The main reason for the substantial reduction of Korean supply is that Chinese downstream factories concentrate on refusing orders from June to July in consideration of import costs. In addition, there is a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, resulting in a huge price gap between the United States and South Korea, and a large number of Korean goods are diverted to the United States for arbitrage, resulting in a sharp drop in pure benzene exported to China. Aniline: Within a week, the aniline market rose steadily from north to south. In the North China market, the average tender price of Jinling pure benzene has increased by nearly 245 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the wide range of cost has increased, resulting in profit loss of aniline. However, downstream demand drags down the market obviously. North China’s enterprises are generally shipped, and their inventory remains high. North China market is weak, stable shipment to inventory within a week. In the East China market, the price of aniline in North China rose narrowly because of the strong support of cost and the low pressure of shipment from the East China entrepreneurs.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Business community view: supplier manufacturers to force control goods, so that the end of the tour is not to force, buy goods sentiment is not good, traders follow the market, low price talks. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts predict that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price range vulnerable shocks, small fluctuations.

Recent stable operation of n-propanol market (6.27-7.5)

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the recent market of n-propanol is mainly maintaining stable operation. At present, the ex-factory quotation of manufacturers in Nanjing is around 8,400 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of domestic n-propanol traders is around 9,900-11,500 yuan/ton (the price difference between different packaging specifications is large), which is slightly higher than that in mid-June. Mainstream quotation for n-propanol is around 1,1200-11,800 yuan/ton.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: The overall trend of n-propanol market is stable. The acceptance quotation of n-propanol produced by Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8400 yuan/ton (bulk water). The export quotation of n-propanol from Zibo, Shandong Province, where Ningbo Haorui Supply Chain Company distributes, is 11000 yuan/ton (including tax barrels). The Taiwan import of Yexing Chemical Trade in Zhangjiagang is just right. The price of propanol is 10,200 yuan/ton (including tax barrels).

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Industry chain: The market price of the upstream product propylene oxide has risen by 3.74% compared with last week. The cost pressure of propylene oxide manufacturers has increased sharply. Some factories have reduced the negative overhaul and the supply. The downstream performance is relatively calm, and purchasing is just needed.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the business association’s forecast, the n-propanol market will run steadily in the short term.

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Cyclohexanone market weakly up

Price Trend

According to business association monitoring data, as of July 3, the latest domestic price of cyclohexanone was 7866 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone was weaker.

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II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market continues to rise slightly, cost support is still acceptable, downstream connection atmosphere is still acceptable, factory spot pressure is not large, solvent market needs to be purchased more. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is delivered in cash from 8300 to 8400, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in cash from 8500 to 8600, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in cash from 8800 to 9000.

Industry Chain: Pure Benzene: The price of pure benzene in East China is slightly weaker than that in noon. At present, spot negotiations are between 5230-5270 yuan/ton, between 5250-5280 yuan/ton in July and 5220-5250 yuan/ton in August. Recently, after Sinopec’s supplementary increase, US dollar disc talks are also active. The rise of downstream styrene price has some support for pure benzene, but Sinopec’s supplementary increase is lower than expected, the market continues to rise with some resistance, and the price slightly falls. Caprolactam: Domestic liquid caprolactam spot market is slowly rising, spot supply is tight, plus good news outside, manufacturers are reluctant to sell at low prices. The spot quotation for liquids in East China market refers to 12200-12300 yuan/ton and is accepted and delivered. Shanxi Lubao device has been restarted, Cangzhou Xuyang device has been restarted, Shandong Haili device parking overhaul, giant device parking overhaul.

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3. Future Market Forecast

Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the domestic market for cyclohexanone will be stable in the short term.

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June 2019 Lead Market Shocks Down

Price Trend

In June 2019, the domestic market of 1# lead ingots shocked down. The average price of domestic market was 16,200 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 16,062.50 yuan/ton at the end of the month, a decline of 0.85%.

On June 28, the lead commodity index was 97.76, down 0.45 points from yesterday, down 27.05% from 134.01 points in the cycle (2016-11-29), and up 30.99% from 74.63 points on March 19, 2015. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

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II. Market Analysis

Domestic market: In June, the overall trend of spot lead market in East China was mainly turbulent. The mainstream price was about 16,000-16,200 yuan/ton. The increase was weak. The downstream demand was difficult to increase. Battery enterprises were still mainly on the lookout, and bulk orders were still very limited. By the end of the month, the main brands of lead in the market were concentrated in Jinsha, South, Copper Crown, Shuangyan and so on. Affected by environmental protection, some large factories have been repaired. Lead-acid battery enterprises have partially reduced production and storage, and lead prices have been low.

Supply and demand: London, June 20, the report released by the International Lead and Zinc Research Group showed that the global lead market was short of 25,800 tons in April and surplus of 4,300 tons in March. In the first four months of this year, the global lead market was short of 39,000 tons, compared with 38,000 tons in the same period last year.

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London, June 19, 2010. According to data released by the World Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMS), the global lead market supply gap was 152,000 tons in January-April 2019 and 278,000 tons in 2018. The total stock at the end of April was 19,000 tons lower than that at the end of 2018. Unreported inventory changes are not included in consumption statistics. From January to April 2019, global refined lead production was 4.168 million tons, an increase of 9.3% over the same period last year. From January to April, China’s apparent demand is estimated to be 1.991 million tons, an increase of 381,000 tons over the same period last year, accounting for about 46% of the global total. Apparent demand in the United States increased by 24,000 tons from January to April. In April 2019, global refined lead production was 1.016 million tons and consumption was 1.1272 million tons.

Domestic events:

The pilot implementation scheme of centralized collection and trans-regional transfer system for waste lead-acid batteries in Jiangxi Province: In order to promote the implementation of extended producer responsibility system for lead-acid batteries production enterprises, a standardized and orderly collection and treatment system for waste lead-acid batteries was established. According to the Circular on the Issuance of Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries (SOLID) In the spirit of documents such as “Notice on Issuing the Work Programme for the Pilot Project of Centralized Collection and Cross-regional Transport System for Lead Battery Manufacturing Enterprises” (Environmental Protection Office Solid [2019] 5), the Provincial Department of Ecology and Environment and the Provincial Department of Transport and Transport compiled the “Pilot Implementation of Centralized Collection and Cross-regional Transport System for Waste Lead Batteries in Jiangxi Province”. Program (hereinafter referred to as “Program”), is now issued to you. Please do a good job of pilot work according to the requirements of the Program

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Strengthening pollution control of waste lead-acid batteries in Yunnan Province: Nine departments of Yunnan Province, including the Department of Ecological Environment, the Provincial Development and Reform Commission and the Provincial Department of Industry and Information Technology, jointly issued the Circular on Forwarding the Action Plan for Pollution Prevention and Control of Waste Lead-acid Batteries (hereinafter referred to as “the Circular”), requesting all prefectures (cities) of Yunnan Province to strengthen waste lead-acid batteries. Pollution prevention and control, implement the extended producer responsibility system, improve the standard collection and treatment rate of waste lead-acid batteries, effectively curb the environmental pollution caused by illegal collection and treatment, and prevent and control environmental risks.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Since June, downstream lead-acid batteries enterprises have partially reduced production and storage. It is still possible to continue to reduce production in July, which is bad for the spot lead market. It is expected that lead prices will remain weak in July.

China’s domestic polyaluminium chloride market prices remained stable in June

Commodity index: The commodity index of polyaluminium chloride on June 29 was 105.04, which was the same as yesterday. It was 2.84% lower than the peak of 108.11 points in the cycle (2019-04-24), and 4.10% higher than the low of 100.90 points on April 09, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

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Latest price (June 29): Polyaluminium chloride (solid, content (> 28%) quoted 1933.33 yuan/ton.

Main points of analysis: On June 1, the mainstream quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride market was about 1950 yuan/ton. On June 29, the mainstream quotation of this product was stable, and the mainstream quotation was reported to 1950 yuan/ton. According to the monitoring data of the commercial association (100ppi.com), the current domestic market quotation range of polyaluminium chloride is: polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial grade, content (> 28%) quoted 1800-1900 yuan/ton, liquid (industrial grade, content 10% – 12%) quoted 330-410 yuan/ton, and the price is stable.

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Industry chain: Prices of upstream hydrochloric acid and other products of polyaluminium chloride have not changed much in recent years; downstream demand is basically stable, and the overall price of polyaluminium chloride has fluctuated slightly in recent years.

Future market forecast: In the short term, there is no big fluctuation in the price of raw materials in the upstream, the demand in the downstream is relatively stable, and the price of domestic polyaluminium chloride market remains basically stable.