According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 25th to 29th, MTBE prices first fell and then rose from 5425 yuan/ton to 5445 yuan/ton, with a price increase of 0.37% during the period, a month on month increase of 1.92%, and a year-on-year decrease of 17.19%. After the price rose to a high level in the early stage, the manufacturer’s shipment slowed down significantly, and under the pressure of increased inventory, the manufacturer offered discounts for shipment. After offering discounts, the enthusiasm of downstream buyers was attracted, and there is still a certain demand for gasoline, so the transactions gradually improved, and the domestic MTBE market situation has been pushed up.

On the cost side, in terms of crude oil: The international oil price has fallen, and the main negative factors are: Israel and Hezbollah have officially reached a ceasefire agreement, the situation in the Middle East has further eased, and the recent strong trend of the US dollar. As of November 28th, the Brent crude oil benchmark price of Shengyi Society is $72.32 per barrel.

From the perspective of demand and downstream gasoline terminal demand, the increase in private car travel rate in winter provides support for terminal demand, and refineries have a strong willingness to raise prices. With the completion of some orders, the enthusiasm of operators may be temporarily suspended, but there will still be some gasoline orders to support it at the beginning of next month. Short term MTBE demand is influenced by favorable factors.

Supply side: Resource supply is expected to increase narrowly. Short term domestic MTBE supply is affected by bearish factors.

As of the close on November 28th, the closing price of the Asian MTBE market has decreased by $4.2/ton compared to the previous trading day, with FOB Singapore closing at $691.49-693.49/ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market decreased by $6/ton compared to the previous trading day, and FOB ARA closed at $817.49-817.99/ton. On Thanksgiving, the MTBE market in the United States is closed.

The future forecast for the MTBE market may see sporadic slight adjustments, with little room for fluctuation. MTBE analysts from Shengyi Society believe that the domestic MTBE market will experience narrow consolidation in the short term.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid in China remained stable at a high level this month. As of November 27th, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 11975.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 5.51% compared to the beginning of this month (11350.00 yuan/ton).

Raw material side: The price of raw material fluorite has increased this month. The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, backward mines will continue to be eliminated, and new mines will be added. Mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, national departments need to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of operating fluorite mines has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight. According to the monitoring system of Shengyi Society, as of November 28th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3675.00 yuan/ton, an increase of 4.63% compared to the beginning of this month (3512.50 yuan/ton).

Demand side: Entering the off-season, downstream refrigerant market demand weakens. Some models of devices are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. For the decline in demand for upstream products, on-demand procurement is the main focus. Affected by this, the domestic hydrofluoric acid market price may experience a slight correction.

Market forecast: In the near future, the supply of hydrofluoric acid will be tight, the market price of raw materials will rise, the demand for downstream refrigerants will weaken, and some models of equipment are expected to undergo maintenance or shutdown. It is expected that the price of hydrofluoric acid may experience a correction in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to monitoring data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda stabilized on November 27th. On November 27th, the average price of caustic soda in the Shandong region was 1021 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.54% from November 1st.

2、 Market analysis

According to the survey data from Shengyi Society, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and operating. The price of caustic soda in Jiangsu region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 1000-1080 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is currently stable, with a mainstream market price of around 990-1060 yuan/ton for 32% ion exchange membrane alkali. Local prices in Shandong remain stable and wait-and-see, while overall inventory levels of enterprises are low. In the short term, domestic alumina prices continue to show a strong trend, and demand for caustic soda is still acceptable, maintaining the current price trend of caustic soda.

On November 26th, the chemical index was 846 points, a decrease of 1 point from yesterday, a decrease of 39.57% from the highest point of 1400 points during the cycle (2021-10-23), and an increase of 41.47% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8th, 2020. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present).

Business analysts believe that in the near future, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating and operating, with low inventory in some areas. Downstream demand is expected to remain stable in the future, depending on downstream market demand.

1、 Price trend

According to data monitored by Shengyi Society, as of November 25th, the average price of domestic industrial grade high-quality cyclohexane was 77633.33 yuan/ton. As of November 25th, the domestic cyclohexane market was operating narrowly and weakly, with market transaction prices maintained at around 7500 yuan/ton. Currently, there is sufficient spot supply of cyclohexane, and follow-up is cautious.

2、 Market analysis

In terms of cost: Currently, the upstream pure benzene market is mainly operating at a high level, with a narrow range and strong operation, and the cost pressure is not reduced. The downstream market is mostly purchasing on demand, and there is no pressure on inventory. The market is mainly operating at high prices. The pure benzene prices of Sinopec’s refineries in East and South China are stable at 7250 yuan/ton, and the price will be implemented from November 20th.

Downstream aspect: The price of cyclohexanone in the downstream market fluctuates narrowly and strongly, with a slight rebound in price operation. The overall market supply is stable, and on-demand procurement is the main focus. The hydration method production capacity of the cyclohexanone plant in Luxi Chemical is 600000 tons, and the oxidation plant is shut down for 100000 tons. Cyclohexanone is mainly used for its own production of caprolactam.

3、 Future forecast

The cyclohexane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that there is currently support for upstream prices, but downstream demand is insufficient and the supply side is loose. It is expected that the current trend of cyclohexane will be maintained in the short term.

The price of isooctanol has fallen this week

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the price of isooctanol was 9166.67 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 5.82% compared to the price of 9733.33 yuan/ton on November 15. This week, the operating load of isooctanol enterprises has increased, the supply of isooctanol has increased, and the price of isooctanol has fluctuated and fallen. The increase in supply and demand for isooctanol is average, and the support for the isooctanol market has weakened, resulting in a fluctuating decline in isooctanol prices.

Increased supply of isooctanol

The operating load of isooctanol enterprises has increased, and the supply of isooctanol has increased. Lihua Yi Enterprise’s octanol equipment has been restored, and the supply of isooctanol in the market has increased, weakening the support for the rise of isooctanol.

Downstream plasticizer DOP prices fluctuate and fall

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 22, the DOP price was 9201.25 yuan/ton, a fluctuating decrease of 3.28% compared to the DOP price of 9513.75 yuan/ton on November 15. The demand for plasticizer DOP is average, and the price of plasticizer DOP fluctuates and falls. The operating rate of downstream plasticizer enterprises is stable, and the demand for isooctanol for plasticizers is average. The demand support for isooctanol has weakened.

Future expectations

The data analyst of Business Society’s octanol product believes that as the operating load of isooctanol enterprises increases, the supply of isooctanol also increases, and the support for the rise of isooctanol weakens; Downstream plasticizer manufacturers have temporarily stabilized their production, while demand for isooctanol is sluggish. In the future, the supply of isooctanol is sufficient, but the demand is cold, resulting in a decline in the price of isooctanol.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of November 19th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s epoxy propane was 8572.5 yuan/ton, a decrease of -1.12% compared to the beginning of this month (8670 yuan/ton).

Price influencing factors:

Supply side: Lianyungang major factory releases maintenance news, market atmosphere is tense. In late October, there was no inventory and limited sales, resulting in a tight market supply and an increase in epoxy propane prices.

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials propylene and liquid chlorine remain stable at high levels. Although the manufacturer has sufficient inventory, downstream demand is weak, and the company reduces profits by selling at low prices, resulting in a decrease in actual trading volume. According to the market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of November 17th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6833.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.70% compared to the beginning of this month (6785.75 yuan/ton).

Downstream demand side: New orders and urgent purchases are the main focus in the downstream market, while actual orders and transactions are sluggish.

Market forecast:

An epoxy propane analyst from Shengyi Society believes that downstream purchasing enthusiasm is average, with a strong wait-and-see attitude and a focus on on-demand procurement. Epoxy propane companies have a positive attitude towards pushing up prices, and it is expected that the short-term epoxy propane market will mainly experience fluctuations and consolidation. More attention should be paid to market news guidance.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, from November 11th to 18th, the average price of BDO in China fell from 8842 yuan/ton to 8785 yuan/ton, with a price drop of 0.65% during the period and a year-on-year decline of 11.70%. Recently, there have been frequent fluctuations in the operation and maintenance of the equipment, with a mainly wait-and-see attitude. The industry continues to suffer losses, and suppliers actively support the market, limiting the room for market price fluctuations. The overall downstream demand is average, and there is a game between supply and demand, resulting in a stalemate in the focus of the domestic BDO market.

On the supply side, although some devices unexpectedly stopped, the expected increase in market supply and inventory has weakened the support on the supply side.

In terms of cost, raw material calcium carbide: The regional performance of the calcium carbide market has strengthened, and limited electricity has emerged in Inner Mongolia, especially in the Wuhai area, which has accelerated the tight supply of goods in the market. Recently, the environmental impact in Shandong and Henan regions has weakened, and there has been an increase in demand. Raw material methanol: The domestic methanol market is mainly consolidating. As of 3:00 pm on November 18th, the domestic methanol Taicang price is 2510 yuan/ton. The raw material calcium carbide market fluctuates narrowly, methanol prices remain high and consolidate, and the impact of BDO costs is mixed.

On the demand side, downstream industries except for PTMEG have shown a significant increase in production, while others have stable or declining operations, and overall raw material digestion is average. The impact of BDO demand remains to be seen.

Future forecast: The expected increase in market supply of goods and the weakening of supply side support. The downstream demand side follows up generally, and there is a bargaining sentiment towards raw materials, which is bearish on the market mentality. Business Society BDO analysts predict that the domestic BDO market will mainly focus on consolidation.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, TDI in the East China region performed weakly this week, with prices slightly falling. As of November 15th, the average market price in the East China region was 12850 yuan/ton, and on November 11th, the average price was 12950 yuan/ton. The weekly decline was 0.77%, and the year-on-year decline was 23.96%.

This week, the TDI market has been running weakly, with upstream units operating relatively stably and downstream entry enthusiasm low, resulting in low transaction volume. Traders are more active in shipping and have increased the room for negotiation, leading to a shift in the focus of TDI prices.

Supply side: Domestic equipment is in a stable state, and the preliminary inspection equipment has also returned to normal.

Cost wise: The upstream toluene market continues to decline, downstream demand remains weak, toluene continues to loosen and soften, and trading is weak.

According to the analysis of the future market, the TDI data analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the current TDI market atmosphere is relatively pessimistic, with all the positive supply points exhausted. With the negative impact on the demand side in the future, it is expected that the TDI market will operate weakly in the short term.

According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the toluene market fluctuated downward from November 1st to 11th, 2024. On November 1st, the benchmark price of toluene was 5860 yuan/ton, and on November 11th, the benchmark price of toluene was 5810 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.85% during the cycle. This week, the overall focus of the toluene market is relatively low, with the disproportionation industry being the main industry in Shandong. The purchasing enthusiasm of other industries is not high, and the overall downstream demand is more rigid. Overall, the toluene market has a strong supply-demand game mentality, and the market is mainly characterized by narrow fluctuations.

Cost wise: As of the 8th, international crude oil futures closed down, with the settlement price of the main contract for US WTI crude oil futures at $70.38 per barrel. The settlement price of the main Brent crude oil futures contract is $73.87 per barrel. During this cycle, crude oil prices have mainly fluctuated, with little overall change. On the one hand, OPEC’s production reduction plan of 2.2 million barrels per day has been extended until the end of December, which is good news for international oil prices. On the other hand, the local economy in Asia has improved, and market panic on demand has eased, boosting the international oil market. However, geopolitical tensions have eased, and this news is bearish for the international oil market. There is a long short game, and overall, crude oil first rose and then fell during the cycle.

Supply side: Sinopec toluene quotation situation: Currently, the enterprise is operating normally, the production of the equipment is stable, the products are mostly self used, and the production and sales are stable. As of November 11th, East China Company quoted 5750 yuan/ton, North China Company quoted 5950 yuan/ton, South China Company quoted 5700-5750 yuan/ton, and Central China Company quoted 5850 yuan/ton.

Demand side: The external market for xylene continues to decline, and demand support is weak

On November 11th, Sinopec Sales Company temporarily stabilized the price of xylene, with the current execution price being 7300 yuan/ton. This price is being implemented in East China, North China, Central China, and South China. Yangzi Petrochemical, Zhenhai Petrochemical and other facilities are operating stably, with normal sales, and the price is unchanged from November 1st. The PX price continued to decline both inside and outside the cycle. As of November 8th, the closing prices of the Asian xylene market were $809-811/ton FOB Korea and $834-836/ton CFR China.

Market forecast: There will still be supply pressure in the toluene market in the near future, with major refineries accumulating inventory and actively shipping within the week. On the demand side, downstream suppliers will maintain on-demand procurement. Overall, the performance of supply and demand is weak, and it is expected that the market will continue to operate steadily with weak performance.

This week, the domestic fluorite price trend has risen. As of the weekend, the average domestic fluorite price was 3606.25 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.30% from the early week price of 3525 yuan/ton, and a year-on-year decrease of 2.53%.

Supply side: Limited mining operations and tight supply of fluorite

The current situation of the game in the domestic fluorite industry still exists. Overall, the operating rate of enterprises has not changed much. Upstream mining is tight, and backward mines will continue to be eliminated. In terms of new mines, mineral investigation work is still difficult. In addition, the national department needs to rectify fluorite mines, and fluorite mining enterprises are facing increasingly strict safety and environmental protection requirements. Although the rectification action is coming to an end, the affected area has not narrowed. The difficulty of fluorite mining operation has increased, and the shortage of raw materials has limited the operation of fluorite enterprises. The supply of fluorite sources is still tight, and the inventory of fluorite enterprises is low. With the supply shortage combined with the winter storage season, the atmosphere of rising prices in the fluorite market this week is strong.

Demand side: Hydrofluoric acid prices rise, refrigerant market rises

The price trend of hydrofluoric acid has risen this week, and the mainstream price for hydrofluoric acid in various regions of China has recently been negotiated at 11000-11500 yuan/ton. The downstream hydrofluoric acid units are still shut down, and there is little change in the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Manufacturers mainly purchase hydrofluoric acid on demand, and the overall production of hydrofluoric acid is around 60%. In November, manufacturers raised their prices, which boosted the trend of fluorite prices.

The downstream refrigerant market is on the rise, and the demand for summer after-sales service is rapidly digesting. The inventory will continue to be depleted throughout the year. Fluorine chemical enterprises within quota control have strong confidence in maintaining stable prices in the refrigerant market. Currently, the prices in the foreign trade market are gradually increasing, and upstream products are mainly purchased on demand. The market price of some refrigerant products has risen, which has led to a continuous increase in the domestic fluorite market price.

In addition to the traditional demand in the refrigerant industry, fluorite, as an important mineral raw material for modern industry, is constantly developing in emerging fields. It is also applied in strategic emerging industries such as new energy and new materials, as well as defense and nuclear industries, including lithium hexafluorophosphate, PVDF, graphite negative electrode, photovoltaic panel, etc. With the demand driven by new energy and semiconductor fields, fluorite applications have received certain support.

Market forecast: In the near future, it is difficult to improve the supply of domestic fluorite mines, and some mines have stopped production for safety inspections. The tight supply of fluorite mines is a major positive support for the fluorite market. Recently, the downstream refrigerant product market has risen, and the price of hydrofluoric acid has risen. Overall, the domestic fluorite market still has an upward trend.