1、 Price trend

Taking the sulfuric acid method gold red stone type titanium dioxide with a large volume of goods in the domestic market as an example, according to data monitoring by Business Society, the domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable in February, with an average price of 13900 yuan/ton.
2、 Market analysis
The domestic titanium dioxide market remained stable in February. The demand for titanium dioxide in the first ten days was average, and the trading atmosphere on the market was slightly light, with stable prices being the main focus. The market stagnated during the mid Spring Festival holiday. In the latter half of the year, there was a strong desire for an increase in titanium dioxide prices. Three companies involved in the chlorination process successively sent letters announcing price increases, and the domestic price of chlorination titanium dioxide was raised by 500 yuan/ton. As of now, the domestic quotation for sulfuric acid based pyrite type titanium dioxide is mostly between 13200-14300 yuan/ton; The price of Ruiti type is around 12200-12800 yuan/ton, and the actual transaction price is negotiable.
According to customs data statistics, China’s titanium dioxide exports in December 2025 were 171800 tons, a year-on-year increase of 8.49% and a month on month increase of 12.88%. Among them, 127700 tons of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide were exported, a month on month increase of 8.49%; The export of chloride method reached 44200 tons, a month on month increase of 27.83%. From January to December 2025, a total of approximately 1.8169 million tons of titanium dioxide were exported, a year-on-year decrease of 4.46% or approximately 84800 tons. The annual export volume of titanium dioxide experienced its first decline since 2016. Among them, the export of titanium dioxide by chlorination method was 366500 tons, a year-on-year increase of 5.95%; The export of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide was 1.4505 million tons, a year-on-year decrease of 6.77%.
According to customs data statistics, in December 2025, China imported 6691.21 tons of titanium dioxide, a year-on-year decrease of 7.71% and a month on month increase of 25.27%. Among them, 3549.67 tons were imported by chlorination method, a decrease of 7.41% compared to the previous period, and 3141.54 tons were imported by sulfuric acid method, a decrease of 2.49% compared to the previous period. The total import of titanium dioxide from January to December 2025 was 74500 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 18.92%. Among them, 30200 tons of sulfuric acid titanium dioxide were imported, a year-on-year decrease of 3.99%; The import of titanium dioxide by chlorination method was 44400 tons, a year-on-year decrease of 26.67%.
3、 Future forecast
The titanium dioxide analyst from Shengyi Society believes that this month, titanium dioxide companies have a strong desire for price increases, mostly waiting and observing, and waiting for dragon enterprise plans. The market is currently in a stalemate and consolidation. It is expected that the price of titanium dioxide may increase in March.

In the first week after the holiday (2.24-28), the domestic PVC market prices declined. According to the Commodity Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the SG-5 weekly decline of PVC carbide method was 2.3%. As the weekend approaches, the mainstream transaction price of carbide SG-5 in Shandong region is between 4600-4700 yuan/ton.
At the beginning of the week, the PVC market atmosphere was light, downstream processing enterprises resumed production one after another, distributors returned to the market, and terminal demand was still in the stage of recovery. The market had a strong wait-and-see attitude, with distributors reporting less and remaining stable. Waiting for the industry trend to become clear after the holiday. On the supply side, the operating rate of PVC manufacturers remained stable and high after the holiday, and the supply increased. With the gradual recovery of logistics and transportation, the high inventory of upstream factories began to shift to the market and terminal channels, and the circulation of spot goods increased.

The external demand performance is average, with exports falling short of expectations, mainly due to the expected cancellation of export tax rebate policies and fluctuations in shipping costs. The follow-up of foreign trade orders is weak, and the transaction of high priced goods is significantly limited, making it difficult to form effective support for the market. Under the triple pressure of high supply, weak demand, and weak exports, the PVC spot market lacks sustained upward momentum and is under price pressure.
As the weekend approached, PVC market prices fell in a bearish trend, and the futures market fluctuated and weakened. Some merchants voluntarily offered discounts to promote shipments. With a slight release of demand, market transactions slightly improved compared to the beginning of the week, but overall, the pattern of weak fundamentals has not been shaken off.
Overall, the core contradictions in the current PVC market are concentrated in high supply, slow demand recovery, and export pressure. In the short term, prices will continue to fluctuate, and future attention should focus on downstream resumption progress, upstream inventory turnover pace, and changes in export orders.
Future forecast
Business Society predicts that the PVC market price will continue to be weak next week. From the supply side perspective, the start of PVC production in China next week may slightly decrease, and some companies have maintenance plans. However, the overall industry load is still relatively high, coupled with high social inventory, market supply contradictions still exist, which will continue to suppress prices.
On the demand side, although downstream enterprises have gradually resumed work, the later operating rate may recover slowly, and there is still a stage of urgent demand. However, the overall purchasing mentality is cautious, mainly focusing on buying at low prices and following up on demand, which is difficult to form strong support for the market. In terms of cost, the sluggish performance of the raw material calcium carbide market has further weakened the cost support for PVC, resulting in a lack of upward momentum.
Overall, under the influence of three factors: high inventory, weak demand, and weakened cost support, the domestic PVC market will lack positive drivers next week and is expected to continue its weak downward trend.

Commodity market situation: According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the mainstream market situation of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cationic, molecular weight 12 million, 10-30 ion degree) in China in February was sorted out. On the 26th, the main market price was around 12960 yuan/ton, which remained stable compared to the beginning of the month. This month, the raw material acrylonitrile has declined, the acrylic acid market has risen, the fuel market has declined, and the cost support for polyacrylamide is limited. The mainstream market for polyacrylamide is mainly consolidating weakly.
Raw material acrylonitrile: In February, the acrylonitrile market first fell and then rose. As of February 26th, the average price of acrylonitrile was 7100 yuan/ton, a decrease of 7.19% from 7650 yuan/ton on February 1st. Before the Spring Festival, spot purchases weakened, and the acrylonitrile market continued to decline; After the Spring Festival, overall supply or maintenance will be maintained, and demand will gradually recover and grow.
Raw material acrylic acid: The price of acrylic acid continued to rise in February. After the holiday, the price of raw material propylene is rising, supported by costs, and the acrylic acid market is rising. Downstream industries are gradually resuming work, and the market is mainly observing and waiting.
Liquefied natural gas for production. The domestic liquefied natural gas market prices fell sharply in February. As of February 26th, the average price of liquefied natural gas was 2882 yuan/ton, a decrease of 20.17% from 3610 yuan/ton on February 1st. The liquefied natural gas market is showing an overall trend of oversupply.
Market forecast: In February, the raw material acrylonitrile will decline, the acrylic acid market will rise, the fuel market will decline, and the overall cost of polyacrylamide will decline. At present, the market is still in a situation of oversupply, and it is expected that domestic polyacrylamide sorting will be the main focus in the near future.

In January, the hydrogen fluoride market was strongly supported by the continuous strengthening of upstream raw material costs, and the market price center further shifted upward. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 31st, the benchmark price of hydrofluoric acid in Shengyi Society was 13033.33 yuan/ton, an increase of 2.36% compared to December.

Raw material side: The prices of raw materials such as fluorite and sulfuric acid have risen, and the cost pressure on hydrogen fluoride production enterprises is significant, squeezing their profit margins. The sustained high cost of raw materials provided strong support for the price of hydrogen fluoride, becoming the core driving force behind the price increase in February. According to the analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of January 30th, the benchmark price of Shengyi Society’s fluorite was 3412.50 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.37% compared to the beginning of this month (3400.00 yuan/ton).
Demand side: The downstream demand side pattern is relatively stable. The largest downstream refrigerant industry for hydrofluoric acid is approaching the end of the year, with production quotas exhausted and overall demand not showing explosive growth, continuing to maintain an on-demand procurement model. Maintain a wait-and-see attitude and have low purchasing enthusiasm. The market price has shown weak upward momentum, and in the short term, the main focus will be on executing contract orders and maintaining weak stability.
Market forecast: The sustained high cost of raw materials provides strong support for the price of hydrofluoric acid. Downstream demand is relatively stable, with rigid procurement being the main focus. It is expected that the market price of anhydrous hydrogen fluoride will remain stable with a moderate to strong trend in the later stage. More attention should be paid to changes in market supply and demand.

In early February 2026, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market ended its previous weakness and showed a trend of narrow range and strong operation.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, as of February 6th, the average price of industrial grade dimethyl carbonate in China was 3800 yuan/ton, an increase of 1.33% from the beginning of the month. The main driving force for the market’s rise comes from the concentrated stocking of downstream goods before the Spring Festival, as well as the active pricing strategy of manufacturers.
Analysis of the reasons for the increase
Short term supply contraction: Some equipment on site is undergoing maintenance, with no significant increase in spot goods, and the supply of goods is gradually tightening; Some manufacturers have placed orders for shipment, which limits the circulation of spot goods and alleviates the pressure of oversupply. But long-term new production capacity continues to be released, increasing market supply expectations.
Pre holiday effect of demand: As the Spring Festival approaches, downstream industries tend to make on-demand purchases and stock up for essential needs, but the overall demand growth is not strong.
Manufacturers proactively adjust prices: Mainstream production enterprises have raised their factory listing prices by 100 yuan/ton, directly guiding the market’s bullish sentiment.
Bottom line cost support: The prices of the main raw materials, propylene oxide (PO) and methanol, both decreased in early February, which reduced cost pressure but also weakened the cost side’s driving force on DMC prices.
On February 6th, the benchmark price of epoxy propane in Shengyi Society was 8000 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.44% from the beginning of the month;
On February 6th, the benchmark price of methanol in Shengyi Society was 2200 yuan/ton, a decrease of 2.87% from the beginning of the month.
Overall, the market may enter a period of consolidation and volatility in the short term
Before the Spring Festival, the market has limited downward space due to the support of essential stock preparation and manufacturer price hikes. It is expected to remain stable, but it does not have the foundation for a sustained surge. For long-term trends, it is necessary to closely monitor the progress of new capacity deployment and the recovery of downstream real demand.

Recently, the overall price of potassium chloride in the domestic market has shown a high and stable trend, with limited fluctuations. On February 2nd, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) by Shengyi Society was 3616.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

1、 Market situation
Although there has been a slight increase in the price of potassium chloride on a weekly basis (except for 60% red granules), the actual market changes are limited. The current high price is mainly due to the inertia of previous price increases and expectations of policy intervention, while downstream transaction activity is not high, and most traders choose to stop selling and wait. The potassium sulfate market also shows the characteristics of “generally rising prices and limited transactions at high prices”, reflecting the cautious acceptance of prices by the demand side at this stage. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere in the market has further weakened, and it is expected that the pre holiday market will maintain a stable pattern.
2、 Core Focus Points
1. Implementation pace of domestic supply guarantee policies
Since the meeting on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices was held on January 27th, the market still maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards specific policy details and implementation efforts. If the pre holiday policies can be clearly implemented and effectively connected with supply and demand, it is expected to stabilize market sentiment and suppress price upward impulses; On the contrary, if the policy is delayed or the implementation effect is limited, there will still be upward pressure on the price of potassium chloride, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The timeliness and effectiveness of policies will become the primary factors affecting the post holiday market trend.
2. Uncertainty in the international situation
International variables such as Iran’s situation, US policy trends, Belarusian potash export sanctions and the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to disrupt the global potash supply chain. If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may push up international market prices and transmit them to the domestic market; If the situation eases, price support will weaken, and market concerns about future downturns may gradually become apparent. The uncertainty of the international potassium fertilizer trade environment poses two potential paths for the domestic market: a “chaotic premium” and a “stability correction”.
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, the potassium chloride market is expected to continue its weak supply-demand and sideways price trend before the Spring Festival. The post holiday market trend needs to focus on two aspects: first, the specific measures and implementation effects of domestic supply guarantee policies, and second, changes in international geopolitics and trade policies of major exporting countries. It is recommended that industry enterprises maintain reasonable inventory, closely monitor policy developments and international news, and cautiously respond to price volatility risks.

According to the monitoring of the commodity market analysis system of Shengyi Society, the domestic butadiene market showed a trend of first rising and then falling, with an overall surge in January 2026, and the price hit a recent high, intensifying the supply-demand game in the market. From January 1st to 29th, the domestic butadiene market price increased from 8187.5 yuan/ton to the range of 10562.5 yuan/ton, with a significant increase of 29.01% during the period.

The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened up a strong upward trend, and enterprises had a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month.
On the cost side: The market trend this month presents distinct stage characteristics, with a rebound after a surge, but overall it still maintains a high position. At the beginning of the month, relying on tight supply, external market upward movement, and downstream pre holiday stocking expectations, the market opened a strong upward trend, and enterprises have a strong willingness to support prices, with consecutive price increases and rapid price surges; In the middle of the month, with the strong linkage of downstream synthetic rubber futures and the hot atmosphere of spot trading, prices continue to hit new highs, and spot resources are scarce, making it difficult to find low-priced sources of goods; At the end of the month, with a significant increase in prices and a sharp rise in downstream raw material costs, profits continue to be under pressure, and the enthusiasm for entering the market for procurement has significantly declined. High priced transactions have been hindered, and the market has experienced a phase of correction. However, due to the lack of obvious loose support from the supply side, the magnitude of the correction is limited, and the overall operation remains at a high level. Prices have risen sharply during the month. As of the 28th, the settlement price of the March WTI crude oil futures contract in the United States was $63.21 per barrel. The settlement price of Brent crude oil futures in April was $67.37 per barrel.
Supply side:
In January 2026, the domestic butadiene supply side continued to be tight, with equipment maintenance and reduced import volume becoming the core drivers. The spot circulation was limited, and enterprises had a strong mentality of raising prices, with quotes continuously increasing with market conditions. This month, multiple sets of butadiene plants in China have entered the maintenance cycle, and some enterprises have temporarily shut down their plants. The release of effective production capacity in the industry is limited, and domestic supply has contracted to some extent; At the same time, the available sources of goods in the external market are limited, and the supply in major production areas such as South Korea and Southeast Asia is tightening. The arrival volume of imported goods from overseas has significantly decreased, and the circulation resources in the domestic spot market have further reduced, highlighting the tight supply-demand balance pattern. In this context, the quotations of mainstream domestic production enterprises have continuously increased, and various sales companies of Sinopec, Satellite Chemical, Shenghong Refining and Chemical, and other enterprises have repeatedly raised their listing prices/export prices. The overall quotation system has moved up, further driving up market prices and becoming the core driving force behind this month’s price surge.

Demand side:
In January 2026, the downstream demand for butadiene in China showed a trend of first strong and then weak. The release of stocking demand before the beginning of the month formed strong support, while the demand carrying capacity significantly weakened under cost pressure at the end of the month, and the supply-demand game gradually intensified. At the beginning of this month, affected by the approaching Spring Festival holiday, the downstream synthetic rubber (butadiene rubber, styrene butadiene rubber) industry started pre holiday stocking, coupled with the industry’s relatively high operating rate, the demand for butadiene procurement was steadily released, and the atmosphere of spot trading was hot, becoming an important driving force for price increases; But with the significant increase in butadiene prices, the cost of downstream synthetic rubber raw materials has skyrocketed, and the transmission of price increases on the product side is not smooth. The price difference between upstream and downstream continues to narrow, and the profits of Shunding and styrene butadiene rubber enterprises are under obvious pressure. Some enterprises are forced to reduce production, and their market procurement has shifted from actively stocking up to following up on essential needs. At the end of the month, the high price transaction of butadiene encountered obstacles, and the market ushered in a phase of correction. Overall, downstream pre holiday stocking has formed a temporary support, but profit pressure has become the core factor restricting the sustained release of demand, which has also led to a market rebound after a surge.
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 29th, the Shunding rubber market in East China has been consolidating at a high level. The futures market fluctuated slightly, and merchants raised their offers by 50-100 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream prices for Daqing, Yangtze, and Qilu Shunding are 13100~13300 yuan/ton; Some private brands are priced around 12950-13100 yuan/ton.
Market forecast:
The supply-demand game in the domestic butadiene market will still dominate the trend, and the price is likely to maintain a high volatility pattern. The tight supply situation is difficult to fundamentally alleviate in the short term, and equipment maintenance and import reduction will still provide support for prices. Enterprises still have a strong willingness to raise prices, and the room for adjustment is limited; The situation of downstream profit pressure on the demand side has not improved, and the terminal tire industry is still in a seasonal off-season. After the pre holiday stocking demand gradually subsides, the follow-up efforts for essential needs are limited, which will restrict further price increases and make it difficult for the market to see a unilateral upward trend.
Overall, it is expected that the domestic butadiene market will mainly fluctuate at a high level in February 2026, with prices generally running at a high level supported by tight supply before the Spring Festival. After the holiday, it is necessary to pay close attention to the progress of downstream resumption of work and production, the dynamics of equipment maintenance and restart, the trend of external prices, and the recovery of terminal demand.

Recently, the price of acetic anhydride has been running weakly
According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, as of January 28th, the price of acetic anhydride was 4590.00 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.70% compared to the price of 4622.50 yuan/ton on January 21st. Recently (1.21-1.28), the price of acetic acid has been weakly declining, raw material prices have fallen, and the cost support for acetic anhydride has weakened. The supply side acetic anhydride maintenance equipment is recovering, and the market mentality is mainly wait-and-see. The purchasing sentiment under the demand side is not high, and the support for acetic anhydride is average. The market fundamentals are weak, and the price of acetic anhydride has been narrowly lowered.
The acetic acid market is declining
According to the Business Society Acetic Acid Commodity Market Analysis System, from January 21st to 28th, the price of acetic acid decreased from 2903.33 yuan/ton to 2873.33 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.03%. The operating rate of the acetic acid plant has slightly increased, market supply has increased, downstream procurement is average, manufacturer inventory has increased, market sentiment is weak, acetic acid prices have decreased, and the cost side has had a negative impact on acetic anhydride.
Future prospects
The acetic acid analyst from Shengyi Society believes that the price of raw material acetic acid has fallen, the market mentality of acetic anhydride is not good, the inventory pressure of acetic anhydride on the supply side is still acceptable, the downstream demand is limited, and the fundamentals of acetic anhydride have weakened. It is expected that the acetic anhydride market will weaken and consolidate in the later stage, and specific attention will be paid to changes in the upstream market.

This week, the domestic liquid ammonia market has declined and the market performance has been sluggish. According to the Commodity Market Analysis System of Shengyi Society, the liquid ammonia market in Shandong Province fell by 2.39% this week (1.19-23). The main reason is the abundant supply of ammonia, which affects market circulation due to rainy and snowy weather in the north. In addition, the recovery of some ammonia facilities has led to an increase in supply, but market demand is weak. At present, the mainstream price of liquid ammonia in Shandong region is 2250-2400 yuan/ton.

In terms of supply, this week’s supply continued to increase compared to last week. The production of liquid ammonia in Shandong and Hebei regions remained stable, while supply from facilities in Anhui, Jiangsu and other regions resumed, resulting in an increase in ammonia supply. Due to the impact of snow in some areas of Shandong, Northwest China, and Inner Mongolia, transportation is restricted, resulting in the accumulation of inventory in enterprise warehouses. From the beginning of the week to the weekend, some companies in northern regions have made downward adjustments, while large factories in Shandong region have generally adjusted prices within the range of 100 yuan. The market has shown oversupply, and companies still have expectations of resuming work in the later stage. Supply may continue to increase in the later stage.
From the demand side perspective, downstream demand has been sluggish, with the operating rate of compound fertilizers still at a low level. In some downstream areas, phosphate fertilizer enterprises have been affected by environmental protection, resulting in a continuous decline in operating rates and relatively weak demand. Recently, the shipment volume of urea has contracted and prices have mainly declined. According to the commodity analysis system, the weekly decline of urea is 1.27%. In addition, the domestic industrial demand is weak, and agricultural demand is mainly purchased on demand with sporadic restocking. The improvement in demand is not significant, and the market’s wait-and-see mentality still dominates.
Market forecast:
Business analysts believe that the supply and demand pressure in the liquid ammonia market is expected to continue next week, mainly due to the impact of the expected resumption of plant work, and there are still supply risks in the market. However, there may be room for improvement in agricultural demand, and there are signs of a rebound in the operating rate of downstream products such as monoammonium phosphate and diammonium phosphate. The game between supply and demand will strengthen in the later stage, and the market for feed ammonia may not improve. It is expected that the range will mainly fluctuate.

1、 Market dynamics

As of January 19th, the benchmark price of propylene in Shengyi Society was 6147.67 yuan/ton, an increase of 7.52% compared to the beginning of this month (5717.67 yuan/ton). The market entered the digestion stage after a rapid rise. Tightening supply and rising demand are the main driving forces. The shutdown of two PDH units in Qingdao and Yantai has intensified the supply shortage, while downstream Wanhua Chemical’s increased propylene production and the restart of Lihe and Jingbo PP units have jointly supported the situation of “overall strong gas purchasing”.
2、 Expected price trend
Short term stable digestion, range oscillation, and rapid price increase, downstream acceptance ability is facing a test. The downstream profit margin has been squeezed, which may suppress purchasing enthusiasm. There is a slight upward expectation in the medium to long term
Supply side: Under cost pressure, the enthusiasm for PDH unit operation is suppressed, and subsequent maintenance plans may provide support for supply.
Demand side: There is a need for downstream stocking before the Spring Festival in February, which may bring temporary support. The outsourcing behavior of enterprises such as Wanhua also provides sustained demand highlights.
Cost side: There is an expectation of an increase in the prices of major raw materials (crude oil, propane), and cost support may be strengthened.
3、 Risk points that need attention
1. Downstream bearing capacity: The continuous rise in propylene prices will squeeze downstream product profits, which may lead to insufficient demand momentum, which is the core constraint of the current market.
2. Supply recovery situation: Pay attention to the resumption progress of existing parking facilities and the actual deployment pace of new production capacity (planned to be put into operation in the first quarter of 1.9 million tons).
3. Cost side fluctuations: The trend of international crude oil and propane prices will directly affect propylene prices through cost channels.
Overall, the propylene market has emerged from a strong upward trend driven by unexpected supply contraction and increased external procurement by enterprises such as Wanhua. In the short term, due to high prices, there may be a need for consolidation, but in the medium term, there is still room for slight upward exploration under cost support, pre holiday stocking, and supply maintenance expectations.