Price Trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of Yungui yellow phosphorus fell slightly this week. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 15325 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 15200 yuan/ton at the end of the week. Within the week, the price fell by 0.82%.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Yellow phosphorus prices fell slightly this week. At present, market transactions are light, downstream enterprises have low start-up rate, traders have strong wait-and-see sentiment, yellow phosphorus market demand is not good, lack of support. At present, the main transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan is 14700-15000 yuan/ton. The mainstream transaction price in Sichuan is about 15,200 yuan/ton. The main transaction price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 15 300 yuan per ton.

Industry chain: Most mines in the domestic phosphate ore market have resumed mining this week, with increased supply and high overall inventory. The main ex-factory quotation range of Yunnan phosphate ore market is 350-450 yuan/ton. In-plant coke inventory remained at a moderate to high level. This week, coke prices were stable. The mainstream market price of Panzhihua coke (secondary metallurgical coke) was around 2080 yuan/ton. The downstream enterprises of yellow phosphorus have insufficient start-up rate and light demand.

3. The analysts of yellow phosphorus in the future forecast business and social chemical branch believe that the overall demand for Yunnan-Guizhou yellow phosphorus is light, the downstream demand is in a wait-and-see state, the procurement activity is not high, there is no good support in the field, and it is expected that there will be a downward trend in the later period.

Price data

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic sulfur market fell this week, with the average price of granular sulfur leaving the factory at the beginning of the week at about 1133.33 yuan/ton, and the average price of granular sulfur leaving the factory at the weekend at about 113.33 yuan/ton, with a drop of 1.76% in the week.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the sulfur market is mainly weak, and some factories have finished replenishing goods. Businessmen are watching rationally and the market is quiet. At the beginning of the week, refineries in various regions in China adjusted their prices according to their own shipments. The price of sulphur in Shandong area of Sinopec was reduced by 30 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of solid sulphur was 1160-1170 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of liquid sulphur was 1030-1120 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of sulphur in North China was lowered by 10-30 yuan/ton, the mainstream price of solid sulphur was 1000-1060 yuan/ton, and the mainstream price of liquid sulphur was 960-1060 yuan/ton. 。

Industry chain: The price of downstream sulphuric acid fell, with 377.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 352.50 yuan/ton at the end of the week, with a drop of 6.62% in the week. This week, the bromine market has been running steadily and the average price of bromine has remained around 34954.55 yuan/ton in the week, up 26.58% from the same period last year. In the short run, the sulfuric acid market is not very volatile. Considering the arrival of centralized maintenance plan for sulfuric acid enterprises, the market supply is reduced, and the price is likely to rise flexibly. It will also adjust flexibly for the upstream sulfur market.

3. Future Market Forecast

Sulphur analysts from the business society chemical branch believe that with the convening of the industry meeting, the market performance is quiet and trading is limited, the current market price trend is running smoothly, and refineries around the country perform generally. In the short run, the sulphur market will continue to be weak.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of April 10, the average price of domestic cyclohexanone market was 9,600 yuan/ton, and the domestic market of cyclohexanone continued to rise.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market continues to rise, downstream chemical fiber procurement enthusiasm is still acceptable, manufacturers spot is not much, external quotations continue to rise, solvent market just need to purchase, the market trading atmosphere is good. The mainstream offer of cyclohexanone in North China market is delivered in cash from 9900 to 10000, the mainstream offer in East China market is delivered in cash from 10200 to 10400, and the mainstream offer in South China market is delivered in cash from 10500 to 10700.

Industry chain: pure benzene: East China pure benzene price slightly fell. Influenced by Taihua parking news, FOB Korea pure benzene rose sharply in early trading. The difference between internal and external prices widened to more than 500 yuan/ton, boosting the offer of pure benzene to about 4700 yuan/ton. It was heard that trading volume reached 4500 yuan/ton in May. However, in recent years, although the price of pure benzene is high, the turnover is mostly reversed by traders, the port inventory has not declined, and is still around 245,000 tons. Caprolactam: The price of pure benzene in East China dropped slightly. Influenced by Taihua parking news, FOB Korea pure benzene rose sharply in early trading. The difference between internal and external prices widened to more than 500 yuan/ton, boosting the offer of pure benzene to about 4700 yuan/ton. It was heard that trading volume reached 4500 yuan/ton in May. However, in recent years, although the price of pure benzene is high, the turnover is mostly reversed by traders, the port inventory has not declined, and is still around 245,000 tons.

3. Future Market Forecast

Cost support is still acceptable, downstream chemical fiber procurement is general, but the manufacturers of cyclohexanone spot is not much, there is no delivery pressure. Cyclohexanone analysts from business associations predict that the short-term market for cyclohexanone will be stable and moderate.

I. Trend analysis

According to business association data monitoring, domestic cis-butadiene rubber prices fell slightly this week (4.1-4.4). Prices at the beginning of the week were 1,1300 yuan/ton, and prices at the weekend were 1,1175 yuan/ton, a slight drop of 1.11%.

II. Market Analysis

Petrochemical ex-factory price: This week (4.1-4.4), the ex-factory price of domestic cis-butadiene rubber petrochemical plants was reduced by 200 yuan/ton, and as of April 4, the ex-factory price of cis-butadiene rubber in Daqing Petrochemical Company was 11,200 yuan/ton.

Rubber import and export: Domestic rubber import continued to decrease in February 2019. It is understood that in February 2019, China imported 371,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber. In January-February, China imported 990,000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber. The total volume in January-February decreased by 7.9% compared with the same period last year.

Raw materials: raw material butadiene prices fell slightly this week, the cost side dragged down the price of cis-butadiene rubber. Business associations monitored 8,155 yuan per ton of butadiene at the beginning of the week and 7,911 yuan per ton at the end of the week, a drop of 3.0%.

Demand: The main downstream tire production of synthetic rubber has declined, to a certain extent, forming a negative impact on the price of cis-butadiene rubber. According to business associations, the domestic tire output in February 2019 was 11.218 million, down 7.3% from the same period last year.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Xu Xiaokun, an analyst with business associations, believes that at present, on the one hand, the price of upstream butadiene has fallen, dragging down the synthetic rubber market, on the other hand, the downstream market of rubber has been weak, forming a negative atmosphere for cis-butadiene rubber as a whole. Later, the market of cis-butadiene rubber will continue to be in a weak position.

On April 1, the phthalic anhydride commodity index was 64.88, down 0.81 points from yesterday, down 45.99% from the peak of 120.13 points in the cycle (2012-02-28), up 33.99% from the low of 48.42 points on January 21, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date).

Recent domestic market price trend of phthalic anhydride has maintained a weak position, the market of phthalic anhydride and phthalic anhydride in eastern China has consolidated weakly, downstream factories have just needed to purchase, factory inventory pressure has continued, high-end transactions have been blocked, the mainstream of on-site neighbouring source negotiations is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene source negotiations is 6400 yuan/ton; the mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6500-6700 yuan/ton, and the Main, the quotation trend of enterprises has slightly declined, downstream construction is not high, on-demand procurement is the main, wait-and-see mentality is strong, domestic phthalic anhydride plant operation is stable, phthalic anhydride spot supply is normal, the market is not good, phthalic anhydride prices remain low.

Recently, the executive price of the upstream product of phthalic anhydride, Sinopec o-phthalic anhydride, is 6800 yuan/ton. The actual market transaction price is 7100 yuan/ton. The quotation is stable and the port is out of stock. The upstream raw material mixed xylene price is stable, the turnover of phthalic anhydride is general, the stock of phthalic anhydride in port is low, the price of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, the cost of imported phthalic anhydride is rising, the actual transaction price is discussed in detail, the upstream price trend is stable, and the market price of phthalic anhydride remains weak. DOP prices in the downstream are lower. Recently, in the DOP market in Zhejiang, the quotation of merchants has dropped to 8300-8400 yuan/ton, and the downstream price has slightly decreased. The demand for phthalic anhydride in the upstream is limited. The market price of phthalic anhydride has slightly decreased. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride in the later period will be around 6600 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic acetic acid market first restrained and then rose in March, and then stabilized. At the beginning of the month, the average price of acetic acid in eastern China was about 326 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month it fell to about 3000 yuan/ton, a decline of 6.74%. At present, the quotation in Henan is about 2800/ton; in Shandong is about 2900-3050 yuan/ton; in Hebei is about 2950-3000 yuan/ton; in Shaanxi is about 2580 yuan/ton; in Jiangsu is about 2950-3050 yuan/ton; in Zhejiang is about 3150-3200 yuan/ton; in South China, the quotation is about 3100-3150 yuan/ton, which is 43.45% lower than that in the same period last year.

II. Cause Analysis

Products: The domestic acetic acid market continued to weaken in March due to the downstream demand and adverse effects of exports. Towards the end of the month, the price of acetic acid has warmed up due to the heavy burden of enterprise overhaul, but the overall price is still weak. In terms of start-up, Tianjin Bohua 350,000 tons/year plant stops twice within a month and will be restored at present; Yankuang Cathay Tai 1.2 million tons/year plant goes down within a month, with a daily output of about 2,400 tons/year; Jiangsu Sopu 1.4 million tons/year plant stops short within a month; Nanjing BP 500,000 tons/year plant is scheduled to be overhauled in mid-March and is scheduled to be overhauled by the end of April; Hebei Jiantao 500,000 tons/year plant is scheduled to be overhauled by the end of month. About 20 days; 1.2 million tons per year in Celanese, Nanjing, semi-negative operation; the overall start-up rate in the month is about 80%.

Industry chain: Upstream, the domestic methanol market was affected by the explosion of Jiangsu chemical plant, which rose first and then fell within a month, with an overall decline of 2.71%. At present, the average price is about 2372 yuan/ton; downstream acetate industry has different performances, among which butyl acetate is affected by supply and its price has risen sharply, while other industries are mostly in a weak position. Affected by the Yancheng accident, Jiangsu Province, the overall start of construction has declined, PTA market has declined. Overall, construction started in about 85% of the month, and some enterprises have delayed maintenance, just need to be stable.

International: At present, the North American acetic acid market is stable, and the future market needs to pay attention to methanol dynamics, which is about 575 US dollars/ton; the Asian acetic acid market is affected by overhaul, the market supply has declined, but the demand side performance is not good, the overall stability is relatively stable, the quotation is 405-455 US dollars/ton; the European acetic acid market as a whole is stable in supply and demand, currently around 695 Euro/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

At present, the price of acetic acid in North China is stable, the enterprise overhaul is concentrated and the stock is low, the spot supply is tight, and the quotation is firm; some enterprises in East China have reduced their losses, but the on-site trading is still weak; the talks in South China are general and the buying is flat; the enterprises in Henan are stable according to the low inventory; the future market needs to pay attention to the impact of Jiangsu chemical plant incident on the downstream industry. Acetic acid analysts from business associations predict that the acetic acid market will be mainly stable in the near future.

On March 27, the ammonium nitrate commodity index was 107.02, which was the same as yesterday. It was 9.63% lower than the cyclical peak of 118.42 points (2019-01-15), and 38.32% higher than the lowest point of 77.37 on October 31, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2013-02-01 to date)

Recently, the price trend of domestic ammonium nitrate Market has maintained a low level. Affected by environmental protection control, domestic ammonium nitrate plants shut down more, and domestic ammonium nitrate plants started less. However, with the warming of the weather recently, the influence of northern air limitation disappeared. In addition, due to the complete shutdown of domestic downstream civil explosion industry, domestic ammonium nitrate manufacturers have more stockpiles and the price trend in the field has declined. As of the 28th day, the domestic ammonium nitrate market price negotiations in 1900-2100 yuan/ton, affected by environmental protection, so now many manufacturers in many areas are forced to limit production or stop production and maintenance to accept environmental protection inspection, the price trend of ammonium nitrate on the site is weak.

Recently, the domestic nitric acid price trend is temporarily stable, the market price is 1560 yuan/ton on the 28th day. The stable trend of nitric acid price has little effect on the ammonium nitrate market, and the price trend of ammonium nitrate has slightly declined. The price trend of upstream raw material liquid ammonia has risen slightly, and the market price of liquid ammonia is 3460 yuan/ton on the 28th day. The rising trend of upstream raw material price has a certain positive impact on the ammonium nitrate market. Ammonium nitrate market price trend slightly lower. At the end of the peak season of the downstream civil explosion industry recently, the demand for ammonium nitrate has weakened and the stocks of ammonium nitrate manufacturers have increased, but the liquid ammonia market is on the rise again. The ammonium nitrate Market has slightly declined due to the bad market. Ammonium nitrate analysts believe that the price of raw materials in the upstream market has risen slightly in the near future, but the demand in the downstream is not good, and the market price of ammonium nitrate in the later period is expected to be shocked.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as of March 26, the average price of domestic ethanol market was 5376 yuan/ton. The domestic ethanol market was mainly stable, while the market in some areas was slightly lower.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The domestic alcohol market is stable. Enterprises in Northeast China have normal plant production. At present, the stock of enterprises is not high, the quotation of enterprises is firm, and the market transaction price is stable. Some enterprises in East China have installed parking because of their own reasons, because of strict inspection in Jiangsu, downstream parking has been heard; Baichen device parking in South China market, Guangxi, has strong quotation performance, imports arriving at the port at the end of the month, and downstream demand is light.

Industry chain: Maize: In the short term, maize prices will continue to weaken under pressure. It is expected that from March to early May, maize prices will generally moderately strengthen. But if the Sino-US trade consultation announces positive and good news during this period, the chances of corn prices falling will increase. Therefore, the key to the forecast of corn price overall bullish in March-May is to pay attention to the outcome of Sino-US trade negotiations. Ethyl acetate: The domestic market for ethyl acetate is weak, and the market supply is continuing to be sufficient. The downstream phase purchasing of ethyl acetate has led to the recent market transaction blocked, and some suppliers have been forced to sell at a profit. And the ethyl acetate plant of Soap in Jiangsu resumed full load operation, and the market supply continued to increase.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the short term, the raw Maize in Northeast China maintained stable, the cost side was not obviously supported, the enterprise inventory was not high, and the price remained firm in the short term; the plant start-up situation in East China continued to increase, the supply increased, and the short-term market was expected to be weak; the downstream demand in South China was weak, and the short-term market was expected to be weak. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the short-term market to be weak.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations,

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: The terminal demand continues to pick up, the epoxy propane market turnover is positive, smooth shipment, low inventory, today Wanhua East quoted 10300 yuan / ton, Shandong 10000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: Downstream market buy at a low price, good trading atmosphere.

3. Future market forecast:

The propylene oxide Market is expected to be stable and positive in the short term.

Price Trend

The domestic market of cyclohexanone dropped sharply this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic price of cyclohexanone was 10,900 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 10,500 yuan/ton at the end of the week. The price of cyclohexanone fell by 3.67% in the week, 12.50% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Cyclohexanone market prices fell sharply this week, the overall stability of the crude oil market is better, cost support is still acceptable. This week, the total supply of cyclohexanone manufacturers increased slightly. Haili Dafeng, Jiangsu, shipped normally this week, and export sales increased slightly. Although the inventory pressure was not high, downstream caprolactam manufacturers were more bullish on cyclohexanone. The volume of cyclohexanone purchased in the market was lower than in the earlier period, the speed of manufacturer’s shipment slowed down, the quotation continued to decline, the market transaction price fell, and the solvent market was more on demand. Purchase, the overall volume is scarce, on-site trading atmosphere is flat. Up to now, the mainstream offer in Shandong market has arrived at 10 400-10 500 yuan/ton cash delivery, the mainstream offer in East China market has arrived at 10 600-10 700 yuan/ton cash delivery, and the mainstream negotiation in South China market has arrived at 10 800-10 900 yuan/ton cash delivery.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene, this week the price of pure benzene consolidation. In terms of price, the mainstream negotiations in East China range from 4700 yuan to 4750 yuan per ton, while those in Shandong range from 4400 yuan to 4500 yuan per ton. Caprolactam: This week, the domestic caprolactam liquid spot market prices narrowly rebounded. The phenomenon of supply and demand game still exists. The pure benzene market showed a slight strengthening after the shock consolidation in the week, and the cost of caprolactam was slightly supported. Load reduction phenomenon in downstream polymerization plant, slice market overall demand is general, aggregation plant raw material procurement enthusiasm is general, more maintenance follow-up on demand.

3. Future Market Forecast

From the cost point of view, the crude oil market is steadily becoming stronger, and the cost support is still acceptable. On the supply side, the overall supply of cyclohexanone increased slightly this week, together with the slowing down of chemical fibre orders and low turnover. This week, the inventory of manufacturers increased slightly, but the pressure was not great. On the demand side, downstream caprolactam manufacturers shipped generally and the market tended to be stable. On March 25, Nanjing Dongfang, a 200,000-ton caprolactam plant had maintenance plans for cyclohexanone. Demand may decline slightly, and solvent market will purchase more on demand. Cyclohexanone analysts, business associations, predict that the market for cyclohexanone will continue to fall next week, with more caprolactam maintenance plans in April, and cyclohexanone will be weak in the short term.