In August, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to decline. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the beginning of the month was 10140 yuan / ton, and the average market price of domestic cyclohexanone at the end of the month was 9520 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 6.11% within the month and a year-on-year decrease of 11.19%.

In August, the cost, supply and demand of cyclohexanone were weak, and the price was still falling unilaterally.

At the beginning of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone market fell unilaterally. The prices of raw material pure benzene and main downstream caprolactam fell. At the same time, the supply and demand of the market were weak, and the overall atmosphere was weak.

In the middle of May, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to weaken in a narrow range, and the cost side lacked support. Due to the deviation of terminal demand, the downstream caprolactam market is weak and falling, the profit space is limited, and the demand for external mining is weak. However, the spot supply of cyclohexanone is small and the decline is relatively small.

At the end of September, the domestic cyclohexanone market continued to be low, and the raw material pure benzene was listed for two times, with a total reduction of 450 yuan / ton, falling to 7500 yuan / ton, lacking support in cost. At the same time, the downstream caprolactam supply is abundant and loss, and it needs to be followed up.

At the end of the month, the domestic cyclohexanone declined weakly, mainly due to the sluggish downstream demand.

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 31:

Region, price

East China. 9400-9500 yuan / ton cash delivery

In South China, 9600-9700 yuan / ton in cash

Shandong Province, 9100-9200 yuan / ton cash delivery

Raw material pure benzene: the market price of domestic pure benzene fell first and then rose. It rebounded in stages near the end of the month, and the market transaction atmosphere improved.

Downstream caprolactam: the spot market of caprolactam is basically stable, and there is no significant change in supply.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, 136 commodities rose in the first half of 2022 (1.1-6.30) in the list of commodity prices, mainly in the chemical sector (64 in total) and the agricultural and sideline sector (16 in total), and commodities with an increase of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical sector; The top three commodities with growth were butadiene (152.15%), lithium hydroxide (118.46%) and sulfur (89.80%). A total of 95 commodities declined month on month, mainly in the chemical industry (43 in total) and steel (15 in total), and commodities with a decline of more than 5% were mainly concentrated in the chemical industry; The top three commodities in terms of decline were electrolytic manganese (- 57.47%), magnesium (- 46.60%) and glycine (- 45.71%). The average increase or decrease in this half year was 6.53%.

The cost support is relatively stable, and the cyclohexanone analysts of the business community with weak supply and demand of cyclohexanone predict that the short-term cyclohexanone market is mainly weak.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of business society, the domestic PA66 market rose in August, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of August 30, the average ex factory price of PA66 medium viscosity injection molding grade sample enterprises of business agency was about 22250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 7.23% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, domestic adipic acid fell to a low point at the beginning of this month due to the impact of demand and news. Although the subsequent performance was weak, the market bottomed out and stabilized. At present, the industry load is low, and the inventory pressure of manufacturers is slightly relieved. The shipment of domestic adiponitrile was carried out step by step and began to replace some imported sources. At the end of the month, the price of hexanediamine was good, the supply of goods on the site was reduced, and the enterprises and merchants increased their offers.

The overall trend of the upstream raw material market is acceptable, especially the support of hexanediamine on the cost side of PA66 is higher. In terms of industrial operation rate, due to the continuous pressure on the profits of PA66 enterprises in the early stage, and the policies of power limitation and peak shift production in some regions this month, the current load level of domestic PA66 industry is low, the market spot supply shrinks, and the easing of supply pressure boosts the spot market. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, the current follow-up of terminal enterprises is biased towards just maintaining production, and the acceptance of high-priced goods is general. However, the traditional off-season is coming to an end, the demand of downstream factories is coming, the confidence of merchants is increasing, the shipment attempt is rising, the on-site transaction is general, and the supply of low-cost goods is decreasing.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 has risen this month. The price of raw materials is mixed, and the cost side of PA66 is mainly supported by its own diamine. The load of PA66 enterprises is low, the situation of excess supply in the early stage is improved, and the demand side takes goods generally. It is expected that PA66 will continue to rise in the short term due to the reduction of supply and the approaching of peak season.

1、 Price data

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the price of petroleum coke from local refiners increased slightly this week. On August 28, the average price of Shandong market was 4089.00 yuan / ton, up 0.62% from the price of 4064.00 yuan / ton on August 22.

On August 28, the petroleum coke commodity index was 318.03, which was the same as yesterday, down 22.18% from the highest point 408.70 in the cycle (2022-05-11), and up 375.45% from the lowest point 66.89 on March 28, 2016. (Note: the period refers to September 30, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the price of petroleum coke in the refinery increased slightly, the shipment of the refinery improved, the inventory was low, and the downstream procurement was mainly based on demand.

Upstream: international crude oil prices fluctuated and rose. According to the data released by the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday, the stocks of crude oil and refined oil fell last week; At the same time, the market is still worried about the remarks made by the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) on the possibility of simultaneous production reduction after the return of Iranian oil to the market. The oil price is supported in the short term, and it is expected that the price of finished oil may rise in the later period.

Downstream: the calcined coke price remained stable as a whole this week; The market price of metal silicon has dropped sharply; The price of electrolytic aluminum in the downstream rose, and as of August 28, the price was 18733.33 yuan / ton; Downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude and mainly purchase on demand.

The petroleum coke analysts of business association believe that: the international crude oil surged this week, which was supported by the cost of petroleum coke; The downstream carbon enterprises mostly hold a wait-and-see attitude, mainly purchasing on demand. The petroleum coke shipment of the refinery has improved, and the inventory is low. It is expected that the price of locally refined petroleum coke may rise slightly in the near future.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 26, the average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane in this week was 7683.00 yuan / ton. The price of cyclohexane in this week is mainly stable. At present, the operating rate is normal, the logistics is smooth, the transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is stable, the purchasing atmosphere of the mainstream factory is general, the stable operation is mainly maintained, the negotiation focus is stable, and the price fluctuation range this week is small.

The average price of domestic industrial grade excellent cyclohexane is 7683.33 yuan / ton, and the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is maintained at about 8000 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand of cyclohexane is balanced, and the downstream just needs to be purchased. The negotiation focus is stable and the supply side is normal.

Upstream pure benzene: on August 25, Sinopec North China: Qilu Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang refining and chemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, and Tianjin Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton; East China: Yangzi Petrochemical offers 7500 yuan / ton; South China: Hainan refining and chemical company offers 7500 yuan / ton; Central China: Wuhan ethylene offers 7500 yuan / ton.

Chemical index: on August 25, the chemical index was 944 points, which was the same as yesterday, down 32.57% from the highest point 1400 points (October 23, 2021) in the cycle, and up 57.86% from the lowest point 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to December 1, 2011 to now).

According to the cyclohexane analyst of business club, it is expected that the cyclohexane market will operate smoothly in the short term. (if you want to obtain more commodity information and master commodity prices, please subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity).

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the price of industrial grade and battery grade lithium carbonate showed an upward trend in August 2022, and the price was even more gratifying near the end of the month. On August 25, the average price of industrial grade lithium carbonate in East China was 470000 yuan / ton, which was 1.95% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of industrial carbon in East China was 461000 yuan / ton on August 1). On August 25, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 492400 yuan / ton, which was 2.67% higher than the average price at the beginning of the month (the average price of carbon in East China was 479600 yuan / ton according to the report on August 1).

From the observation of market changes, in the first ten days of August, the price of lithium carbonate kept a steady rising trend, and the supply of lithium carbonate in the spot market was slightly tight. Due to the shortage of raw materials of some manufacturers, the production output of lithium carbonate was less than expected. Most of them were delivered by long orders, and the number of zero orders was relatively small. On the demand side, with the growth of the production and sales of new energy vehicles in the downstream, the demand of the material factory increases. After consuming its own inventory, the purchase intention of lithium carbonate raw materials is strengthened. Therefore, the price of lithium carbonate keeps an upward trend.

In late August, the price of lithium carbonate increased gradually, and the price rose again and again near the end of the month. The current shortage of raw materials cannot be fundamentally alleviated in the short term, and the operating rate of some manufacturers is still lower than expected. Sichuan is one of the main sources of lithium salt production capacity supply. The current summer power consumption peak is affected by the power restriction policy in Sichuan. The overall production of lithium salt enterprises is affected to a certain extent, resulting in a decrease in output. It is predicted that the duration of this round of power restriction may lead to a reduction of about 1250 tons of lithium carbonate in the industry in August.

However, recent domestic public health incidents have been frequent. Affected by the epidemic prevention and control, Qinghai Golmud and other areas are temporarily unable to ship, resulting in a more tight spot of lithium carbonate. Due to the increase in the purchase price of lithium carbonate and the cost of the company’s own operation, the export price of some trading companies also increased.

The price of the downstream lithium hydroxide Market is rising steadily, the price of the upstream lithium carbonate is rising continuously, the spodumene raw material is in short supply, the cost support is strong, the enterprise’s low-cost intention is weakened, the demand is recovering, and the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market negotiation focus is stable under the cost boost, and the quotation of enterprises is increased.

The price of downstream lithium iron phosphate increased slightly. Due to the increase of lithium salt price, the total cost of lithium iron phosphate increased slightly. Sichuan has entered the power rationing mode, and some local enterprises have limited production and sales, resulting in a decline in output and supply, resulting in a slight increase in the adjusted iron and lithium prices in August.

According to the lithium carbonate analysts of business club, the spot supply of lithium carbonate market is still tight at present. Under the dual influence of domestic power and production restrictions and epidemic prevention and control, the price of lithium carbonate keeps rising, and the price changes day by day. It is expected that the short-term lithium carbonate price is still in the upward space.

According to the data of the bulk list of business agency, as of August 22, the average price of domestic industrial grade lithium hydroxide enterprises was 475000.00 yuan / ton, which was the same as that of last Tuesday (August 16), and increased by 0.35% compared with that of July 22, and increased by 2.52% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Recently (August 16-august 22), the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide Market has been stable. Recently, the price of upstream lithium carbonate has risen slightly, which has a certain support for the lithium hydroxide Market. The overseas demand for lithium hydroxide has increased slightly. The lithium hydroxide Market is operating steadily, and traders are mainly shipping.

The price of lithium carbonate in the upstream has risen slightly recently. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, on August 22, the reference price of lithium carbonate was 464400.00, an increase of 0.74% compared with that on August 1 (461000.00).

According to the lithium hydroxide analyst of business club, the current demand is stable and the market atmosphere is acceptable. It is expected that in the short term, driven by the upstream lithium carbonate market, the domestic industrial lithium hydroxide market price may be stable, moderate and strong. More attention should be paid to market information guidance.

Price trend:

According to the data of the bulk list of business community, the weakness of domestic ABS market has continued recently, and the spot prices of various brands have decreased. As of August 23, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 11850 yuan / ton, up or down by – 3.27% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene has dropped in recent years. The main reason is that the cost has been falling continuously, the center of gravity of the pure benzene market has been moving downward, and the decline is large, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The styrene inventory is high, the market atmosphere is light, the transaction is poor, and the spot price of styrene is volatile and low.

Recently, the acrylonitrile market has recovered slightly, and the supply side of the domestic acrylonitrile industry continues to be in a loose state, resulting in poor profits of some enterprises. The industry has actively reduced its load to 70%, and the supply pressure has been partially diverted. However, the downstream demand is still poor, and the start-up of terminal enterprises is low. At present, due to the falling price of acrylonitrile, some follow-up orders carry your spot price, but it is expected that the recovery of acrylonitrile market may be poor in the short term.

The recent recovery of domestic butadiene market is mainly due to the low price in the early stage, which leads to the active purchase in the downstream, driving the market trend. It is difficult to find low-priced goods in the market, and driving the transaction price of Shandong goods to rise. With the rebound of the market, the price difference of the market inquiry is obvious, and the downstream mentality returns to caution. Therefore, the increase is not large.

Recently, the trend of three materials in the upstream of ABS cost side is weak, and the support of ABS cost side is general. On the macro level, the chemical industry chain continued to weaken under the influence of international crude oil fluctuations last week. In terms of industry load, the expected increase in the start-up of some ABS production lines was realized, and the supply side exerted pressure on the market due to the abundant supply in the market. However, the market in the lower reaches of the industry remains unchanged in the off-season. The demand of the main terminal household appliances and other industries lags behind, and the impact of high temperature and power limitation is superimposed. The on-site consumption continues to be weak. The merchants reduce the price and take the order, and the offer follows the market. Terminal enterprises buy at low prices and have obvious resistance to high-priced goods.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS has continued to decline recently, and the overall trend of the three materials in the upstream is weak, which does not support the cost side of ABS well. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market dominates the market, and it is expected that the spot market of ABS will continue to fall in the short term.

1、 Price trend

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic market price of neopentyl glycol dropped slightly this week. This week, the average price of domestic mainstream market of neopentyl glycol dropped from 9766.67 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 9666.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 1.02%. On August 22, the neopentyl glycol commodity index was 47.07, which was the same as yesterday, down 54.57% from the highest point 103.61 in the cycle (September 22, 2021), and up 1.03% from the lowest point 46.59 on August 20, 2022. (Note: period refers to September 1, 2021 to now)

2、 Market analysis

This week, the price of neopentyl glycol mainstream manufacturers fell

From the upstream raw material market of neopentyl glycol, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price increased slightly this week. The average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream market in China this week increased from 933.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 7166.67 yuan / ton at the end of this week, an increase of 3.37%. The market price of raw materials in the upstream increased slightly, and the cost was well supported. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of neopentyl glycol.

3、 Future forecast

In late August, the market trend of neopentyl glycol may rise slightly. The market price of isobutyraldehyde in the upstream increased slightly, and the cost support was good. The market price of coating in the downstream was general, and the enthusiasm of purchasing in the downstream was weakened. Analysts of neopentyl glycol of business club believe that under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the short-term neopentyl glycol market may rise slightly.

Domestic p-xylene price trend:

It can be seen from the trend chart of p-xylene that the price trend of this week is temporarily stable. As of the end of the week, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 9000 yuan / ton, which was the same as the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, with a year-on-year increase of 23.29%.

Recently, domestic paraxylene supply is normal, domestic PX operation rate is about 70%, Sinochem Hongrun petrochemical 600000t unit operates stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operates stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operates stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operates normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operates stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit operates at about 50%, The domestic supply of p-xylene is relatively normal, and the recent supply of overseas units is relatively normal. This week, the crude oil price trend is rising, and the domestic p-xylene price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the PX external price has not changed much. As of the 18th, the closing price in Asia was US $1058-1060 / T FOB Korea and US $1076-1078 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX devices in Asia has remained low, and PX exported to China is still tense. The closing price trend of PX external price is slightly lower, and the domestic market price of paraxylene is temporarily stable.

This week, the crude oil price first fell and then rose. On the whole, the crude oil price rose slightly. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $90.50/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.59/barrel. Dragged down by the economic data of major consumer countries, the market again raised concerns about the global economic recession. The international oil price fell for three consecutive trading days. The WTI fell from US $94 on the 11th to US $86 on the 16th, setting a new low since February. In addition, the Iranian nuclear negotiations were resumed. The market was waiting for the results of the negotiations on the resumption of the Iranian nuclear agreement. The market also responded to the expectation of Iran’s oil release. Since Wednesday, oil prices have swept away the haze and rebounded strongly. As of August 18, international crude oil futures rebounded for two consecutive trading days. On Thursday, the settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $90.50/barrel, up US $2.39 or 2.7%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.59/barrel, down US $2.94 or 3.1%. On the one hand, US inventory data support. In addition, on Thursday, the economic data released by the U.S. Department of labor showed strong performance, and the demand for refined oil remained strong, diluting the worries about the slowdown of fuel demand caused by the risk of economic recession.

This week, the downstream PTA market price trend declined. As of the 19th, the average PTA market price was 6100-6200 yuan / ton. The PTA market trend is declining. In terms of its own supply, during the restart of some domestic PTA units, the operating load has slightly increased to more than 71%, and the supply will be increased. However, there are still many maintenance of PTA units, and the capacity operation rate is still low. This week, the start-up of downstream polyester plants declined slightly. The terminal demand was mainly based on demand. The terminal textile market was general, and the purchasing was not active. The terminal weaving load was reduced to about 47%. The factory was not willing to stock goods, and the polyester filament inventory was still high. The starting load of polyester is stable at around 77%. Under the situation of weakening demand, the social inventory of PTA begins to be accumulated, the price rise of downstream PTA is limited, and the price trend of domestic paraxylene market is temporarily stable.

Chen Ling, an analyst at PX of business club, believes that the current crude oil price is still supported, but the downstream start-up of the terminal remains low, the overall demand side is poor, and the favorable factors are insufficient. It is expected that the market price of paraxylene will remain temporarily stable in the later period.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring of commodity data, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou increased this week. Last Thursday, the average price of yellow phosphorus was 27500 yuan / ton, and this Thursday, the average price was 32000 yuan / ton. Within 7 days, the price was increased by 16.36%.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of yellow phosphorus continued to rise this week. At present, the yellow phosphorus enterprises are obviously reluctant to sell. Now they mainly issue early orders. Most yellow phosphorus manufacturers do not offer external prices for the time being, and only one is discussed. At present, power is limited in Sichuan, and yellow phosphorus enterprises are shut down. Due to the impact of the epidemic situation in Weng’an District of Guizhou, the transportation of yellow phosphorus in some areas is limited, which is more troublesome than before. Some companies in Yunnan are overhauled, and the quotation is suspended. The quotation of yellow phosphorus manufacturers under normal operation was increased. Downstream enterprises mainly focus on just needs, and take it with them. Up to now, the mainstream price of yellow phosphorus in Guizhou is about 32000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, the domestic phosphate rock market has been consolidated at a high level this week. At present, the domestic phosphate rock supply is still tight, and the spot circulation is small. Some large phosphate rocks continue to be mainly used for their own use, while some other mining enterprises continue to receive pre-sale orders. The details are discussed in a single way according to the regional volume and other factors. For some enterprises that need to purchase phosphate ore as raw material, the continuous high price of phosphate rock and tight supply have brought certain pressure to the enterprises. On August 17, the reference price of phosphate rock was 1100.00, which was the same as that on August 1.

In terms of coke, on August 18, the market price of coke in Shandong Port increased slightly. The quasi first-class delivery price of the port was about 2700-2750 yuan / ton, and the first-class delivery price was 2800-2850 yuan / ton. The trading atmosphere of the port was general, and the overall transaction situation was weak. On August 18, the inventory of the two ports was 2.46 million tons, and the freight of Xiaoyi Rizhao was 215 yuan / ton. At present, the coke market in Shandong is temporarily stable after rising. The local coke enterprises are more active and the coke sales are better. The overall market price in Jinzhong is relatively strong, the coke enterprises start to operate, the inventory in the plant is low, the downstream demand is recovered, and the market expectation is generally good.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the price of phosphoric acid increased slightly this week. The average price of phosphoric acid on Monday was 7920 yuan / ton, and the average price on Thursday was 7940 yuan / ton. During the week, the price increased by 0.25%. The price of raw yellow phosphorus rises, and the phosphoric acid market rises slightly.

3、 Future forecast

According to the yellow phosphorus analysts of the business community chemical branch, the yellow phosphorus price will continue to rise this week as a whole. The price of phosphate rock in the upstream is high, and the price of phosphoric acid in the downstream market rises slightly. The current yellow phosphorus market is favorable due to power limitation in Sichuan and maintenance in Yunnan. It is expected that the yellow phosphorus market will continue to rise slightly in the short term.