In July, the domestic polysilicon market continued to rise. According to the monitoring of the business community, polysilicon rose by 15.97% on a monthly basis. The main reason for the rise of silicon material is the expansion of supply and demand gap caused by tight supply. The downstream silicon wafer manufacturers raised the price support, and the high start-up rate of silicon wafers ensured the stable purchase volume; The price of superimposed battery chips has risen, the pressure on manufacturers’ profits has eased, and the price of imported silicon materials has also remained high. At the end of the month, the price range of single crystal dense materials was 282000-295000 yuan / ton.
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In terms of supply, the supply of silicon material enterprises continued to shrink this month compared with June. The operating rate of domestic silicon material manufacturers was significantly lower than that of last month. There were 12 domestic polysilicon production enterprises in production. In the whole July, four in Xinjiang and one in Luoyang carried out equipment maintenance or line overhaul, affecting part of the output. However, the increment brought by the expansion of Sichuan and Baotou manufacturers and Asian silicon industry is not enough to make up for the loss of output. On the whole, the domestic silicon production fell in July. The tight supply pattern is still the main driver of the upward trend of silicon materials.
Most large manufacturers’ orders in August have been signed at the beginning of the month, and some scattered orders have flowed out, which continues to push up the market reference price of silicon materials. At the end of the month, enterprises began to sign new orders in September, but it is worth noting that in the last week of the month, the price of silicon material showed signs of stopping rising, and later, manufacturers signed long orders or ushered in downstream bargaining space.
In terms of intermediate products, the prices of some large silicon wafer manufacturers were adjusted at the end of July. Longji silicon wafer announced on the 26th that the quotations of various silicon wafer models were raised. At present, the price of silicon wafers has reached an unprecedented high, which has formed a strong support for silicon materials and put great pressure on downstream battery chips and components. Silicon chips were operating at a high level throughout the month, with prices stabilizing. Near the end of the month, M6 rose 0.25 yuan, and the mainstream transaction price was stable at about 6.33 yuan / piece; M10 rose by 0.24 yuan, and the mainstream transaction price remained at about 7.54 yuan / piece, while the mainstream transaction price of G12 silicon wafer rose to about 9.93 yuan / piece.
Battery chips and components: the price of battery chips also rose this month. The rise of battery chips was mainly concentrated at the end of the month. After the general rise in the price of silicon chips, Tongwei and other large manufacturers also followed suit. The price of battery chips of different models rose by 4-5 points /w in the month, or about 3-5%. Other enterprises followed the rise in prices, but the bargaining power of small and medium-sized battery chips was limited, and the delivery strength decreased significantly after the rise. The main reason is that the acceptance of downstream components is reduced, and the cost is squeezed again.
In the aftermarket forecast, polysilicon analysts of the business society believe that the shortage of silicon materials is the driving force behind the continuous rise in prices. At the same time, the pressure will continue to transmit to the downstream. The high cost and low supply in the upstream of the photovoltaic industry chain will gradually bring more and more heavy pressure to the downstream. The profits of cells and components are obviously squeezed, especially the profit space of terminal components is very limited. Due to the impact of high costs in the later stage, there may be a risk of demand decline. The silicon material price may be under pressure in the long term, and the silicon material price may remain high in the near future.