1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of the business club, the domestic market of PA6 has fallen recently, and the spot prices of various brands have been lowered. As of June 16, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for Zhongtong 2.75-2.85 was about 16500 yuan / ton, up or down by +0.61% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, the price of caprolactam rose in general this week. The far point crude oil was strong due to the tension in Eastern Europe and the reduction of other oil producing countries. Although it fell back due to the impact of the Federal Reserve over the weekend, pure benzene and caprolactam were supported by it. Downstream procurement is based on demand and production is maintained. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to be strong in the short term.

The upstream caprolactam market trend is positive, and PA6 cost side support is stable this week. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is generally stable at 70%, which has fallen back in a narrow range recently. In terms of news, the tension between Russia and Ukraine is still tense, and the strong operation of international crude oil prices has a fair supporting and conducting effect on the cost side of PA6. The supply side of PA6 is relatively abundant, but the profit of the manufacturer is under pressure. The load of downstream enterprises fell in a narrow range. As the market entered the off-season, the demand slowed down. The purchaser is cautious in taking the goods, mainly in small order purchase to maintain production, and the delivery is not good.

3、 Future forecast:

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA6 fell this week, the trend of caprolactam rose and fell slightly, and the cost support of PA6 was stable. Downstream enterprises mainly take small orders to maintain production. There is resistance to high price goods in the market, and the trading volume shrinks. It is expected that the trend of PA6 market may be reduced by a narrow margin in the short term.

Recent price trend of isooctanol

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of isooctanol in Shandong fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream isooctanol manufacturers in Shandong fell from 12566.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 12300.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 2.12%, a year-on-year decrease of 21.82% compared with the same period last year. On June 9, the isooctanol commodity index was 90.93, down 0.49 points from yesterday, down 33.87% from the highest point 137.50 in the cycle (2021-08-08), and up 158.69% from the lowest point 35.15 on February 1, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Weak upstream support and insufficient downstream demand

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory quotation of Shandong mainstream isooctanol manufacturers fell slightly this week: the octanol unit of Jianlan chemical industry is under maintenance; The quotation of lihuayi isooctanol this weekend is 12300 yuan / ton, which is 200 yuan / ton lower than that at the beginning of the week; Hualu Hengsheng offered 12300 yuan / ton of isooctanol this weekend, down 400 yuan / ton compared with the beginning of the week.

From the upstream raw material market of isooctanol, the propylene market fell slightly this week. The price fell from 8080.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7930.60 yuan / ton this weekend, down 1.86%, basically the same as that of the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials fell slightly, and the cost support was insufficient. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a negative impact on the price of isooctanol.

From the downstream market of isooctanol, the ex factory price of DOP fell slightly this week. The DOP price fell from 11987.50 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 11925.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 0.52%, and a year-on-year decrease of 11.01% compared with the same period last year. Downstream DOP prices fell slightly, and downstream customers’ enthusiasm for purchasing isooctanol weakened.

Weak upstream support, insufficient downstream demand, outlook bearish for isooctanol

In the middle of June, the market trend of Shandong isooctanol was dominated by a small fluctuation. The upstream propylene market fell slightly, the cost support weakened, the downstream DOP market fell slightly, and the downstream demand was average. According to the isooctanol analysts of the business society, the short-term domestic isooctanol market may fluctuate slightly due to the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

In the first ten days of June, the market price of nitrile rubber fell slightly. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the price of nitrile rubber was 21700 yuan / ton, down 4.62% from 22750 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

The operating rate of NBR in China is close to 80%, and the supply side is relatively sufficient; Since June, the ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises has been significantly adjusted downward. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 20700 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3305e is 21000 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3308e is 22400 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of Nandi nitrile 1052 is 23400 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 1051 is 23800 yuan / ton.

In June, the price of butadiene rose sharply, the price of acrylonitrile fell slightly, and the cost side was still supported. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of June 10, the price of butadiene was 12096 yuan / ton, up 6.66% from 11341 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of June 10, the price of acrylonitrile was 11240 yuan / ton, down 1.92% from 11460 at the beginning of the month.

The downstream operation of nitrile rubber is low, and the demand side is weak. According to the business agency, the downstream insulation foaming, rubber hose and other industries started in the vicinity of 50-60%, and most of them purchased on demand. The market of nitrile rubber fell slightly.

Aftermarket forecast: NBR analysts of business club believe that the supply and demand of NBR are slightly deadlocked, and it is expected that the NBR market will be weak and volatile.

This week, the spot tin market price (6.02-6.10) fell as a whole. The average price in the domestic market was 271110 yuan / ton last weekend and 260910 yuan / ton this weekend, down 3.76% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart by using the concept of the K-line of price trend. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes of the K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall. It can be seen from the above figure.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of bulk commodity prices rising and falling in the 23rd week of 2022 (6.6-6.10), there were 9 kinds of commodities with month on month rise in the non-ferrous sector, and the top 3 commodities were metal praseodymium (0.80%), cobalt (0.77%) and lead (0.71%). A total of 11 commodities fell month on month, with nickel (-3.64%), silver (-2.23%) and zinc (-1.33%) as the top three products. The average rise and fall this week was -0.36%.

Situation of tin futures market on June 10, 2022

varieties., Closing price, Compared with the same period last week, Inventory (ton)

Shanghai tin, 262500 yuan / ton- 10080 yuan / ton, three thousand eight hundred and eight

London tin, 35000 USD / ton, 0 USD / ton, three thousand and five

In terms of futures market, the trend of bottoming out and rebounding after the downward trend this week, with the overall weekly drop of more than 2%. The spot market followed the trend of Shanghai tin this week, and the price fell first and then rose. Before the holiday, the tin price bottomed out and rebounded. However, the downstream demand performance was general, and the support for tin price was limited. The inventory rebounded in the previous period, dragging down the market mentality, and the tin price fell. Shanghai tin rose around the 9th. Data released by the Indonesian Ministry of trade on Wednesday showed that Indonesia’s refined tin exports in May were 5283.46 tons, down 42.8% from April. The market is expected to tighten the supply in the future, boosting the tin price. In terms of downstream demand, the recent positive domestic policies have been continuously released, and the future market demand is expected to improve. Double positive support tin price upward. However, at present, the overall demand performance of the downstream is general, and the release of demand needs to be digested for a period of time. Therefore, it is expected that the upward space of tin price is limited, and the future market will focus on the downstream construction.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of the business club, the price of domestic sodium pyrosulfite was stable this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3316.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3316.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. The overall high level was stable.

In June, supported by the continuous rise in raw material costs, some enterprises adjusted the market price of sodium pyrosulfite again, driving the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price to rise again at the beginning of the month. This week, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market performed well as a whole. The market price range of industrial grade sodium pyrosulfite was 3000 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were around 3200-3300 yuan / ton. Enterprises mainly completed orders from old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of June, the price of domestic soda ash has increased slightly by 1.75% and the price of sulfur has decreased slightly by 1.78%. In general, the price of upstream raw materials is still high, and the cost will support the market price of sodium pyrosulfite in the future.

Business analysts believe that the domestic market price of sodium metabisulfite will continue to be strong in the short term under the support of costs.

This week, the domestic BDO market atmosphere recovered in a narrow range. There is a lack of obvious guidance on the news surface, and traders and downstream users are more cautious and wait-and-see, and seldom hear about actual orders; The inventory of production enterprises is average, and most of them have the intention to support the price; However, the market of spandex, the main downstream product, fell, and the operating rate of the device fell. The downstream gas buying was light, which suppressed the market trend.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 2 to 9, the domestic BDO market price rose from 22440 yuan / ton to 22480 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 5.15% and a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. In terms of market price, 22300-22400 yuan / ton of spot bulk water in East China was negotiated by the mainstream; The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 22400-22500 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market has been reduced regionally. The price of Wuhai was adjusted at a low level. As the planned maintenance in the later stage is approaching, the bearish attitude of calcium carbide remains unchanged.

Comparison chart of calcium carbide (upstream raw material) -bdo price trend of business agency:

In terms of methanol, this week, due to the original macro driving force and the high cost of coal, methanol rose slightly in a narrow range, but the overall demand was low, so it was difficult to have large fluctuations in the short term. Overall, the BDO cost side is generally supported.

Comparison chart of methanol (upstream raw material) -bdo price trend of Business Club:

In the downstream industries, except for the PBT demand follow-up, other performances are average. At present, the main downstream PTMEG spandex market and construction are weak, which has a great impact on the mentality of BDO operators. The downstream market entry purchase intention is not strong, and the bargaining mood is enhanced.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Meike phase I 60000 T / A, phase II 100000 t / A and phase III 100000 t / a devices have been overhauled in turn since May 27 and are expected to be overhauled in early July. The current load of Xinjiang Tianye 30000 ton unit and three sets of 60000 ton units is 60-70%. The 30000 ton and 100000 ton BDO units of Shaanxi Shanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. are in stable operation.

The factory intends to support the price, but the downstream demand of the terminal has not significantly improved. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly on the sidelines.

Domestic cobalt price rose on June 8

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt price stopped falling and rose on June 8, and the cobalt market rebounded and rose. On June 8, the cobalt price was 433700 yuan / ton, up 0.65% from 430900 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The cobalt price stopped falling and rose, and whether the cobalt market has ushered in an inflection point.

Key points of analysis

The cobalt price in LME market has stabilized, the decline of MB cobalt price has slowed down, and the decline of international cobalt price has slowed down; The output of Sanyuan battery increased. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of the automobile industry in May is expected to reach 1.7665 million, with a month on month increase of 49.59%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, the sales volume of mobile phones decreased, and the demand of cobalt Market recovered. The price of cobalt salt stabilized and the downward pressure on metal cobalt weakened.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand is slowly warming up, the cobalt industry chain is stabilizing, and the downward pressure on the cobalt price is weakened. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and adjust strongly in the future.

In May, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the upward trend of the previous month and rose in shock. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia rose by 5.07% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 5100-5300 yuan / ton. It is mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the area and the shutdown of some units; As well as the high urea level in the downstream, the raw materials of compound fertilizer rose, and the demand maintained a moderate growth; In addition, there are still some enterprises switching to urea, which makes the supply of ammonia more tight. Superimposed on the downstream agricultural demand, the downstream stock also pushed up the ammonia price.

Supply side

On the supply side, the supply of this month was basically flat. In April, the overall supply of liquid ammonia remained tight, especially in the northern region. The supply and demand were in tight balance for most of May. Xinlianxin, Luzhou, mingshengda, as well as black cat and Longmen and other sets will be overhauled within a month. The overall ammonia release in many places in China has shrunk. In addition, the start-up of downstream fertilizers of integrated enterprises is generally better than that of last month, the self consumption of manufacturers is increasing, and the export sales are shrinking.

Cost side

On the cost side, coal continued to be stable in May. Affected by the national policy control, the rise in coal prices has been generally suppressed. However, at present, the price is stabilizing, and the downstream mainly purchases on demand, and the overall supply remains stable; In terms of downstream power plants, the port market is now dominated by coal supplied by changxiehe. Now, the daily consumption of power plants is in the off-season, the purchase intention is general, the market transactions are limited, and they are resistant to high coal prices. The stabilization of coal price eased the cost pressure of downstream methanol, liquid ammonia and other coal chemical industries.

Demand side

On the demand side, the urea price this month continued its rise in April, with an expansion. According to the monitoring of the business community, the monthly increase of urea was 5.09%. The agricultural demand in Xinjiang and southern China is good, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, the plate factories purchase on demand, and the demand of urea industry is sufficient. Buy up but not down, urea trading atmosphere is good. From the perspective of supply: there were many urea maintenance manufacturers in May, and the supply decreased. Various factors continue to drive up urea prices. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will remain unchanged. The mild growth of downstream demand is the main reason for the continuous rise of liquid ammonia price. However, in the future, the agricultural demand will be weakened, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises will be general, the plate factories will purchase on demand, the downstream customers will have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards the high price urea, and the export will be restricted by the legal inspection process. The operators should be wary of the risk of the high price falling back in the later period.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trends of liquid ammonia and urea are basically the same. In the middle and late May, the two curves are close, mainly because liquid ammonia is weaker than urea in the early stage, and urea falls in the late days, while ammonia prices are generally high, flattening the price difference between the two. At present, the price difference between the two is still at a relatively reasonable level.

According to the above figure, the profit of liquid ammonia industrial chain continues to improve, and the natural gas upstream of the gas head is sluggish, falling by more than 7% this month. In addition, affected by the policy, the coal price remained stable, the middle and lower reaches generally rose well, the cost was controlled, and the profit of liquid ammonia was significantly higher than that in the early stage. The downstream areas have also been significantly improved. Diammonium phosphate (12.24%), ammonium chloride (5.71%) and urea (5.09%) have increased significantly.

Aftermarket forecast

In the future, the business community believes that the supply of liquid ammonia in the domestic market may improve recently. Some units in Shandong are restored, and some may bring about supply increment. On the demand side, the demand for fertilizer weakens, and downstream procurement may slow down. On the cost side, coal is still affected by regulatory policies, and the price remains stable. In general, liquid ammonia runs to a historical high, and the future supply accumulation may be accompanied by a high callback risk.

In May, the domestic BDO market remained depressed, and the price curve went down unilaterally. The bidding prices of major production enterprises have fallen one after another. At the same time, the downstream demand is weak, and many companies need small orders to purchase. The confidence of the industry is constantly declining.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 24460 yuan / ton at the beginning of May. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 22320 yuan / ton. The price fell by 8.75% in the month and increased by 12.59% year-on-year. The latest market price: 22300 yuan / ton in the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China, 24000-24500 yuan / ton in barrel negotiation (acceptance and delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 24000-24200 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 22400-22400 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 24000-24500 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery).

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in May 2022:

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in April 2022, 41 commodities in the chemical industry sector rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were formic acid (36.15%), caustic soda (13.35%) and flake soda (9.32%). A total of 66 commodities fell month on month, and 29 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 26.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were propylene glycol (-20.05%), acetic acid (-18.39%) and glycine (-16.77%). The average increase or decrease in this month was -1.87%.

Rise and fall chart of BDO industrial chain in may2022:

At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, and the actual single transaction was light. At present, the support of the supply side is weakened. At the same time, last week, the factory bid for price reduction and the transaction was not ideal, which exacerbated the bearish mood on the floor. The load of downstream industries is not high, and small orders are needed to keep up.

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic BDO market continued to decline. Most operators entered the market to wait and see, and the overall negotiation atmosphere in the market was light; The demand side continues to be depressed, and small orders follow up and reduce prices; At the same time, the bidding price of the factory fell sharply, and the transaction was still not ideal. The manufacturers holding goods lacked confidence in trading, and the market focus continued to fall.

In the middle of May, the actual order trading in the domestic BDO market was light. Close to the settlement cycle, the industry mostly takes a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the initiative to make a counter offer is not high. The traders’ trading mentality is different. Some hold the offer steadily, and some worry about the further decline of the market and negotiate profits; It is difficult to increase the demand of downstream industries. Small orders are just needed, and the overall market moves down.

In late June, the domestic BDO market was weak and stalemate. The market lacks clear information guidance, and most operators take a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the atmosphere of actual single negotiation is light; At present, the long and short factors are intertwined, the supply and demand sides negotiate and game, and it is difficult for the market focus to rise or fall.

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) of Business Club:

Weekly K column chart of domestic production price of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) of Business Club:

Comparison chart of BDO price trend of business club from 2018 to 2022:

In terms of devices, the agent of the second phase of the 204000t / a device in lanshantun River, Xinjiang was changed on May 16, which is expected to take 5-7 days; Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua plant with an annual output of 200000 tons was shut down for maintenance on May 15, which is expected to be one month; Great wall energy’s annual output of 200000 tons will be changed in turn at the beginning of May, which is expected to end on May 15; Xinjiang Xinye 60000t / a unit was overhauled on April 19 and is expected to restart on June 1; Shaanxi Ronghe 60000t / a plant was shut down for maintenance for 15 days on May 15; Shaanxi black cat’s 60000t / a unit was overhauled on May 20, and it is expected to take 10-15 days; The unit with an annual output of 100000 tons of Henan Hemei coal will be shut down due to equipment failure, which is expected to take 20 days.

On the upstream side, the supply of methanol may still be abundant, the marginal demand is expected to improve, and the domestic methanol market may be stable in the short term. Raw calcium carbide: Recently, the procurement of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Shandong has gradually resumed, and the market decline has gradually slowed down. However, the recent weakness of downstream PVC market of calcium carbide continues, the inventory of PVC enterprises is high, and the short-term domestic calcium carbide market is still expected to be lowered.

Comparison chart of methanol-1,4-butanediol (BDO) price trend of business community:

Comparison chart of price trend of calcium carbide-1,4-butanediol (BDO) in shanghaishe:

The performance of the downstream demand side is sluggish, and the purchasing and marketing mentality of the negative operators continues. Among them, the main terminal product spandex continues to yield profits and promote sales under the pressure of inventory and sales, and the upward pressure of cost pressure forces the upstream PTMEG price to be reduced by a narrow margin. In addition, it is expected that the inventory and production reduction of some spandex factories will affect the raw material consumption. The start-up of PBT industry increased slightly, but the end demand generally suppressed the market trend.

The factory intends to support the price, but the downstream demand of the terminal has not been significantly improved. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly on the sidelines

In May, the focus of domestic ethyl acetate trading was significantly improved, and the price continued to rise in the first ten days. In the middle and last ten days, with the demand difficult to follow up, it stabilized after a slight drop. According to the statistics of the business agency, the growth rate this month was 6.0%, mainly due to the sharp rise of raw material acetic acid and the rising cost. Downstream ethyl ester manufacturers frequently raised the ex factory price. Superimposed on the overhaul of main plants in Shandong, the supply of goods was relatively scarce, but the downstream demand had not been substantially improved, and the price of ethyl ester finally stopped rising and stabilized. At the end of the month, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8700-8900 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, acetic acid rose sharply after the holiday. According to the monitoring of business club, since May 1, as of May 31, acetic acid has increased by 29.34%. As some factories were on the verge of loss before the festival, the supply of factories decreased significantly due to continuous load reduction, and the price increase mode was started after the festival. In the month, several units were overhauled or reduced in load at different times. At the beginning of the month, Nanjing Ineos and Hebei Jiantao units were overhauled. In the late days of the month, Shandong Yankuang 1million / T acetic acid unit was shut down for overhaul. The market supply decreased, adding to Celanese’s overhaul expectations. The market supply was outstanding. The quoted prices of enterprises have been raised, mainly by regions. The high cost is the main reason for the high price of ethyl acetate.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the rise and fall of acetic acid is more obvious, the price of downstream ethyl ester is weak, and the opening of the curve is expanded, indicating that the profits of downstream ethyl ester enterprises are obviously compressed.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate in May was lower than that in April. At present, the operating rate of the industry is less than 60%. Due to the equipment maintenance of major plants in Shandong and the limited supply in North China, the price in North China remains high. The market price once rose above 9200 yuan. Most large factories in South China and East China generally reduce production load, and the supply side remains relatively tight.

From the demand side, the purchase intention of the distributors and downstream factories has maintained a reasonable level this month. Part of the demand stimulated by the price rise. However, as prices climbed to a high level, downstream procurement slowed down gradually. Especially in the latter ten days, the downstream replenishment season ended, and the purchase intention between dealers and downstream factories slowed down. Most transactions were based on small orders and low-end prices. Affected by the parking of large factories in East China, the downstream just needs to be maintained, and the market still shows tight supply. However, the South China and North China markets are abundant, but the new demand is not much. In short, demand is still an important reason to restrict and restrain the market.