Price trend:

According to the data of the trade agency’s bulk list, the domestic ABS market rose in early August, and the spot prices of some brands increased. As of August 5, the average price of general-purpose ABS mainstream offers was about 12250 yuan / ton, up or down + 1.66% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the price of styrene continued to fall at the beginning of this month. Affected by macro inflation factors such as weakening international crude oil, the market price fell. The center of gravity of the direct upstream pure benzene moves downward, which is difficult to support the styrene market. The supply and demand fundamentals are weak. Some maintenance units are restarted, and the market inventory is expected to rise. The transaction of styrene market is not good. It is suggested to pay close attention to the trend of cost side.

The market of acrylonitrile this week is weak due to the support of raw material cost, and the downstream demand is poor, so the propylene market is under pressure. The enterprises are not able to deliver goods, and the downstream customers mainly pay small bills, and the prices are seriously depressed. The enterprises are delivering goods, and the prices are successively lowered. There is a strong wait-and-see atmosphere in the market. The supply of propylene market is loose. Under the atmosphere of buying up but not buying down, the price of propylene is easy to fall but difficult to rise.

This week, the domestic butadiene market continued to decline, and some northeast enterprises bid for export to increase market supply. The external market continued to be depressed and reorganized, affecting the domestic market atmosphere. At the same time, the downstream demand continues to be weak, and the market is “unable to recover” due to various negative factors. In the short term, the domestic butadiene market may continue to settle at a low level.

This week, the three upstream materials of ABS cost side fell at the same time, and the support of ABS cost side was poor. On the macro level, the price of international crude oil continues to fluctuate under the influence of macro inflation factors, which is bad for the oil and chemical industry chain. In terms of industrial load, although the operating rate of ABS enterprises was forced to drop in the early stage, it was heard this week that some production lines were expected to return to work. At the moment when the industrial load is still high and the on-site supply is abundant, the increase in load is likely to be negative for the future market. The current season is in the off-season of the industry, especially the main downstream home appliances and other industries have insufficient output, and the on-site demand is weak. The merchants reduce the price and take the order, and the offer follows the market. After the settlement at the end of last week, the pressure on enterprises and the midstream eased. This week, the spot price was narrow, but some low-end factory offers were consumed, and the resistance of the buyer camp gradually emerged.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS rose this week, and the overall trend of the three upstream materials fell, weakening the support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply is abundant, and demand follow-up is poor. The off-season market dominates the market, and some bargain hunting operations support the market. It is expected that the ABS spot market may turn down in the short term.