This week, the domestic BDO market atmosphere recovered in a narrow range. There is a lack of obvious guidance on the news surface, and traders and downstream users are more cautious and wait-and-see, and seldom hear about actual orders; The inventory of production enterprises is average, and most of them have the intention to support the price; However, the market of spandex, the main downstream product, fell, and the operating rate of the device fell. The downstream gas buying was light, which suppressed the market trend.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, from June 2 to 9, the domestic BDO market price rose from 22440 yuan / ton to 22480 yuan / ton, with a weekly price increase of 0.18%, a month on month decrease of 5.15% and a year-on-year increase of 14.69%. In terms of market price, 22300-22400 yuan / ton of spot bulk water in East China was negotiated by the mainstream; The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 22400-22500 yuan / ton.

In terms of upstream raw materials, raw calcium carbide: the domestic calcium carbide market has been reduced regionally. The price of Wuhai was adjusted at a low level. As the planned maintenance in the later stage is approaching, the bearish attitude of calcium carbide remains unchanged.

Comparison chart of calcium carbide (upstream raw material) -bdo price trend of business agency:

In terms of methanol, this week, due to the original macro driving force and the high cost of coal, methanol rose slightly in a narrow range, but the overall demand was low, so it was difficult to have large fluctuations in the short term. Overall, the BDO cost side is generally supported.

Comparison chart of methanol (upstream raw material) -bdo price trend of Business Club:

In the downstream industries, except for the PBT demand follow-up, other performances are average. At present, the main downstream PTMEG spandex market and construction are weak, which has a great impact on the mentality of BDO operators. The downstream market entry purchase intention is not strong, and the bargaining mood is enhanced.

In terms of devices, Xinjiang Meike phase I 60000 T / A, phase II 100000 t / A and phase III 100000 t / a devices have been overhauled in turn since May 27 and are expected to be overhauled in early July. The current load of Xinjiang Tianye 30000 ton unit and three sets of 60000 ton units is 60-70%. The 30000 ton and 100000 ton BDO units of Shaanxi Shanhua Chemical Co., Ltd. are in stable operation.

The factory intends to support the price, but the downstream demand of the terminal has not significantly improved. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly on the sidelines.

Domestic cobalt price rose on June 8

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the cobalt price stopped falling and rose on June 8, and the cobalt market rebounded and rose. On June 8, the cobalt price was 433700 yuan / ton, up 0.65% from 430900 yuan / ton on the previous trading day. The cobalt price stopped falling and rose, and whether the cobalt market has ushered in an inflection point.

Key points of analysis

The cobalt price in LME market has stabilized, the decline of MB cobalt price has slowed down, and the decline of international cobalt price has slowed down; The output of Sanyuan battery increased. According to the prediction of China Automobile Association, the sales volume of the automobile industry in May is expected to reach 1.7665 million, with a month on month increase of 49.59%. The sales volume of new energy vehicles increased, the sales volume of mobile phones decreased, and the demand of cobalt Market recovered. The price of cobalt salt stabilized and the downward pressure on metal cobalt weakened.

Aftermarket forecast

The demand is slowly warming up, the cobalt industry chain is stabilizing, and the downward pressure on the cobalt price is weakened. It is expected that the cobalt price will fluctuate and adjust strongly in the future.

In May, the domestic liquid ammonia market continued the upward trend of the previous month and rose in shock. According to the monitoring of the business community, the liquid ammonia rose by 5.07% this month. At the end of the month, the mainstream transaction price of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 5100-5300 yuan / ton. It is mainly affected by the reduction of supply in the area and the shutdown of some units; As well as the high urea level in the downstream, the raw materials of compound fertilizer rose, and the demand maintained a moderate growth; In addition, there are still some enterprises switching to urea, which makes the supply of ammonia more tight. Superimposed on the downstream agricultural demand, the downstream stock also pushed up the ammonia price.

Supply side

On the supply side, the supply of this month was basically flat. In April, the overall supply of liquid ammonia remained tight, especially in the northern region. The supply and demand were in tight balance for most of May. Xinlianxin, Luzhou, mingshengda, as well as black cat and Longmen and other sets will be overhauled within a month. The overall ammonia release in many places in China has shrunk. In addition, the start-up of downstream fertilizers of integrated enterprises is generally better than that of last month, the self consumption of manufacturers is increasing, and the export sales are shrinking.

Cost side

On the cost side, coal continued to be stable in May. Affected by the national policy control, the rise in coal prices has been generally suppressed. However, at present, the price is stabilizing, and the downstream mainly purchases on demand, and the overall supply remains stable; In terms of downstream power plants, the port market is now dominated by coal supplied by changxiehe. Now, the daily consumption of power plants is in the off-season, the purchase intention is general, the market transactions are limited, and they are resistant to high coal prices. The stabilization of coal price eased the cost pressure of downstream methanol, liquid ammonia and other coal chemical industries.

Demand side

On the demand side, the urea price this month continued its rise in April, with an expansion. According to the monitoring of the business community, the monthly increase of urea was 5.09%. The agricultural demand in Xinjiang and southern China is good, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises is increasing, the plate factories purchase on demand, and the demand of urea industry is sufficient. Buy up but not down, urea trading atmosphere is good. From the perspective of supply: there were many urea maintenance manufacturers in May, and the supply decreased. Various factors continue to drive up urea prices. The policy of ensuring supply and stabilizing prices will remain unchanged. The mild growth of downstream demand is the main reason for the continuous rise of liquid ammonia price. However, in the future, the agricultural demand will be weakened, the demand of compound fertilizer enterprises will be general, the plate factories will purchase on demand, the downstream customers will have a strong wait-and-see attitude towards the high price urea, and the export will be restricted by the legal inspection process. The operators should be wary of the risk of the high price falling back in the later period.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trends of liquid ammonia and urea are basically the same. In the middle and late May, the two curves are close, mainly because liquid ammonia is weaker than urea in the early stage, and urea falls in the late days, while ammonia prices are generally high, flattening the price difference between the two. At present, the price difference between the two is still at a relatively reasonable level.

According to the above figure, the profit of liquid ammonia industrial chain continues to improve, and the natural gas upstream of the gas head is sluggish, falling by more than 7% this month. In addition, affected by the policy, the coal price remained stable, the middle and lower reaches generally rose well, the cost was controlled, and the profit of liquid ammonia was significantly higher than that in the early stage. The downstream areas have also been significantly improved. Diammonium phosphate (12.24%), ammonium chloride (5.71%) and urea (5.09%) have increased significantly.

Aftermarket forecast

In the future, the business community believes that the supply of liquid ammonia in the domestic market may improve recently. Some units in Shandong are restored, and some may bring about supply increment. On the demand side, the demand for fertilizer weakens, and downstream procurement may slow down. On the cost side, coal is still affected by regulatory policies, and the price remains stable. In general, liquid ammonia runs to a historical high, and the future supply accumulation may be accompanied by a high callback risk.

In May, the domestic BDO market remained depressed, and the price curve went down unilaterally. The bidding prices of major production enterprises have fallen one after another. At the same time, the downstream demand is weak, and many companies need small orders to purchase. The confidence of the industry is constantly declining.

According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 24460 yuan / ton at the beginning of May. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 22320 yuan / ton. The price fell by 8.75% in the month and increased by 12.59% year-on-year. The latest market price: 22300 yuan / ton in the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China, 24000-24500 yuan / ton in barrel negotiation (acceptance and delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 24000-24200 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 22400-22400 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 24000-24500 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery).

Trend chart of domestic BDO market in May 2022:

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in April 2022, 41 commodities in the chemical industry sector rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were formic acid (36.15%), caustic soda (13.35%) and flake soda (9.32%). A total of 66 commodities fell month on month, and 29 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 26.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were propylene glycol (-20.05%), acetic acid (-18.39%) and glycine (-16.77%). The average increase or decrease in this month was -1.87%.

Rise and fall chart of BDO industrial chain in may2022:

At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, and the actual single transaction was light. At present, the support of the supply side is weakened. At the same time, last week, the factory bid for price reduction and the transaction was not ideal, which exacerbated the bearish mood on the floor. The load of downstream industries is not high, and small orders are needed to keep up.

In the first ten days of the month, the domestic BDO market continued to decline. Most operators entered the market to wait and see, and the overall negotiation atmosphere in the market was light; The demand side continues to be depressed, and small orders follow up and reduce prices; At the same time, the bidding price of the factory fell sharply, and the transaction was still not ideal. The manufacturers holding goods lacked confidence in trading, and the market focus continued to fall.

In the middle of May, the actual order trading in the domestic BDO market was light. Close to the settlement cycle, the industry mostly takes a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the initiative to make a counter offer is not high. The traders’ trading mentality is different. Some hold the offer steadily, and some worry about the further decline of the market and negotiate profits; It is difficult to increase the demand of downstream industries. Small orders are just needed, and the overall market moves down.

In late June, the domestic BDO market was weak and stalemate. The market lacks clear information guidance, and most operators take a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the atmosphere of actual single negotiation is light; At present, the long and short factors are intertwined, the supply and demand sides negotiate and game, and it is difficult for the market focus to rise or fall.

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) of Business Club:

Weekly K column chart of domestic production price of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) of Business Club:

Comparison chart of BDO price trend of business club from 2018 to 2022:

In terms of devices, the agent of the second phase of the 204000t / a device in lanshantun River, Xinjiang was changed on May 16, which is expected to take 5-7 days; Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua plant with an annual output of 200000 tons was shut down for maintenance on May 15, which is expected to be one month; Great wall energy’s annual output of 200000 tons will be changed in turn at the beginning of May, which is expected to end on May 15; Xinjiang Xinye 60000t / a unit was overhauled on April 19 and is expected to restart on June 1; Shaanxi Ronghe 60000t / a plant was shut down for maintenance for 15 days on May 15; Shaanxi black cat’s 60000t / a unit was overhauled on May 20, and it is expected to take 10-15 days; The unit with an annual output of 100000 tons of Henan Hemei coal will be shut down due to equipment failure, which is expected to take 20 days.

On the upstream side, the supply of methanol may still be abundant, the marginal demand is expected to improve, and the domestic methanol market may be stable in the short term. Raw calcium carbide: Recently, the procurement of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Shandong has gradually resumed, and the market decline has gradually slowed down. However, the recent weakness of downstream PVC market of calcium carbide continues, the inventory of PVC enterprises is high, and the short-term domestic calcium carbide market is still expected to be lowered.

Comparison chart of methanol-1,4-butanediol (BDO) price trend of business community:

Comparison chart of price trend of calcium carbide-1,4-butanediol (BDO) in shanghaishe:

The performance of the downstream demand side is sluggish, and the purchasing and marketing mentality of the negative operators continues. Among them, the main terminal product spandex continues to yield profits and promote sales under the pressure of inventory and sales, and the upward pressure of cost pressure forces the upstream PTMEG price to be reduced by a narrow margin. In addition, it is expected that the inventory and production reduction of some spandex factories will affect the raw material consumption. The start-up of PBT industry increased slightly, but the end demand generally suppressed the market trend.

The factory intends to support the price, but the downstream demand of the terminal has not been significantly improved. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly on the sidelines

In May, the focus of domestic ethyl acetate trading was significantly improved, and the price continued to rise in the first ten days. In the middle and last ten days, with the demand difficult to follow up, it stabilized after a slight drop. According to the statistics of the business agency, the growth rate this month was 6.0%, mainly due to the sharp rise of raw material acetic acid and the rising cost. Downstream ethyl ester manufacturers frequently raised the ex factory price. Superimposed on the overhaul of main plants in Shandong, the supply of goods was relatively scarce, but the downstream demand had not been substantially improved, and the price of ethyl ester finally stopped rising and stabilized. At the end of the month, the price of ethyl acetate was in the range of 8700-8900 yuan / ton.

First of all, from the perspective of cost, acetic acid rose sharply after the holiday. According to the monitoring of business club, since May 1, as of May 31, acetic acid has increased by 29.34%. As some factories were on the verge of loss before the festival, the supply of factories decreased significantly due to continuous load reduction, and the price increase mode was started after the festival. In the month, several units were overhauled or reduced in load at different times. At the beginning of the month, Nanjing Ineos and Hebei Jiantao units were overhauled. In the late days of the month, Shandong Yankuang 1million / T acetic acid unit was shut down for overhaul. The market supply decreased, adding to Celanese’s overhaul expectations. The market supply was outstanding. The quoted prices of enterprises have been raised, mainly by regions. The high cost is the main reason for the high price of ethyl acetate.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of acetic acid and ethyl acetate shows that they basically maintain the same trend, but the rise and fall of acetic acid is more obvious, the price of downstream ethyl ester is weak, and the opening of the curve is expanded, indicating that the profits of downstream ethyl ester enterprises are obviously compressed.

In addition, from the perspective of ethyl acetate supply, the operating rate of ethyl acetate in May was lower than that in April. At present, the operating rate of the industry is less than 60%. Due to the equipment maintenance of major plants in Shandong and the limited supply in North China, the price in North China remains high. The market price once rose above 9200 yuan. Most large factories in South China and East China generally reduce production load, and the supply side remains relatively tight.

From the demand side, the purchase intention of the distributors and downstream factories has maintained a reasonable level this month. Part of the demand stimulated by the price rise. However, as prices climbed to a high level, downstream procurement slowed down gradually. Especially in the latter ten days, the downstream replenishment season ended, and the purchase intention between dealers and downstream factories slowed down. Most transactions were based on small orders and low-end prices. Affected by the parking of large factories in East China, the downstream just needs to be maintained, and the market still shows tight supply. However, the South China and North China markets are abundant, but the new demand is not much. In short, demand is still an important reason to restrict and restrain the market.

In May, the market of nitrile rubber declined in a weak way. According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of nitrile rubber at the beginning of the month was 24550 yuan / ton, and the price at the end of the month was 22750 yuan / ton, a decrease of 7.33% at the end of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In May, the domestic nitrile rubber operating rate was close to 80%, and the supply side was relatively sufficient; Downstream product enterprises started at a low level, and the demand side was slightly weak. The ex factory price of nitrile rubber enterprises was adjusted downward by 500~800 yuan / ton. As of May 31, the ex factory price of Lanhua nitrile n41e was 22500 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3305e is 22800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of 3308e is 23800 yuan / ton; The ex factory price of Nandi nitrile 1052 is 23600 yuan / ton, and the ex factory price of 1051 is 24000 yuan / ton.

Ex factory price of domestic nitrile rubber as of May 31

Enterprise, Nitrile brand, Ex factory price

Lanzhou Petrochemical, N41., twenty-two thousand and five hundred

Lanzhou Petrochemical, 3305., twenty-two thousand and eight hundred

Lanzhou Petrochemical, 3308., twenty-three thousand and eight hundred

Zhenjiang Nandi, 1051., twenty-four thousand

Zhenjiang Nandi, 1052., twenty-three thousand and six hundred

Sipur, Russia, 2665., twenty-two thousand

Sipur, Russia, 3365., twenty-two thousand and four hundred

In May, the price of raw butadiene rose sharply, the price of acrylonitrile fluctuated slightly, and the cost side was supported. According to the monitoring of business agency, as of May 31, the price of butadiene was 11274 yuan / ton, up 14.86% from 9816 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; As of May 31, the price of acrylonitrile was 11460 yuan / ton, down 0.87% from 11560 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Future forecast: NBR analysts of business club believe that the supply and demand side is weak, but the cost side is supported. It is expected that the price of NBR will continue to fluctuate in the later period.

According to the data monitored by the business club, the domestic carbon black quotation was 10375 yuan / ton on May 31.

From the cost side, this month, domestic high-temperature coal tar is still high, but the market performance is different in different regions. On the whole, the enthusiasm for procurement has decreased significantly. The domestic high-temperature coal tar new order auction is difficult to support, and the new order auction in some regions has a large decline.

On the demand side, the overall performance of downstream demand in the domestic carbon black market continued to be sluggish. Although the tire industry gradually recovered in May, there is still a gap compared with the normal situation. The overall operating load of the industry is low, and the tire manufacturers’ shipments are slow. The tire inventory is high. At the live broadcast conference of China Rubber Industry Association, authoritative data of the tire industry were released. According to the data of the association, from January to April, the production, sales and revenue profits of 10 key tire enterprises showed negative growth, and the inventory increased by 41.4%. Under the background that the comprehensive cost of carbon black enterprises has continued to rise this year, the overall operating load of the carbon black industry has increased compared with last month, and the price has generally increased, the current demand of tire enterprises is weak. There are few new carbon black orders for bidding this month, and most of the new orders are a small amount of replenishment. Tire enterprises also have a certain amount of carbon black inventory. At present, production is mainly based on digesting inventory, and downstream operators are cautious in carbon black procurement.

On the whole, the current domestic carbon black cost is still high, and the current carbon black price is at risk of falling down under the condition of sluggish demand and increased inventory. The future trend depends on the downstream demand.

1、 Price data

According to the data of business news agency, as of May 31, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6446.00 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from 6310.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On May 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 130.55, up 0.2 points from yesterday, down 0.37% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 183.31% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of domestic fuel oil 180CST rose this month, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of May 31, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6450 yuan / ton and 6500 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation for 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

In May, the international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of May 25, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil, increased by 2339000 barrels to 21.106 million barrels; Inventories of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate increased by 1717000 barrels to 15461000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 84000 barrels to 7.285 million barrels.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The rise of international crude oil has boosted the domestic fuel market. The price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is strong, the cost of the ship fuel market is high, the market terminal demand is weak, the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6400-6500 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6500-6600 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.

Price trend

According to the data of the bulk list of the business community, the domestic PA66 market fell weakly and steadily in May, and the spot prices of various brands fell significantly. As of May 30, the ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding grade sample enterprises of business club was about 26000 yuan / ton on average, with an increase or decrease of -2.80% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the price of adipic acid in China gradually fell at the end of last month, and the weak market in the early period continued in May. On the demand side, the adipic acid trading is not ideal, the domestic supply is abundant, and the port arrival level is average, so the overall support effect on PA66 spot is limited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid market is weak, adiponitrile market is abundant, and PA66 cost side support is poor. In terms of industrial operating rate, it decreased slightly at the beginning of the month, but the load level of domestic PA66 enterprises was still high in May. There is a lot of spot supply on the site, and the profit of PA66 enterprise is under pressure. The inventory position of the port is acceptable, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. On the demand side, at present, the terminal enterprises tend to follow up with the goods to maintain production, and have strong resistance to the high price supply. The impact of domestic health events on East China in this month has not yet ended, and logistics in many places have been affected to varying degrees. The demand of some domestic downstream factories has shrunk, the contradiction between supply and demand is prominent, and merchants have great resistance to shipping. The turnover on the floor declined, superimposed on the end of the month, and the seller’s mentality was poor, so he let the single operation of profit take the lead.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of business agency, the spot price of PA66 fell in May. The adiponitrile market at the raw material end is weak, and the cost side support of PA66 is poor. The load of PA66 enterprise is high, the on-site supply is sufficient, and the inventory pressure of enterprises and midstream is increasing. The demand side is short of goods, so it is expected that PA66 will be affected by the contradiction between supply and demand and maintain a weak market in the short term.

Price trend of domestic sodium pyrosulfite

According to the monitoring of business agency, the domestic price of sodium pyrosulfite was slightly stronger this week. The average price of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3150.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 3166.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.53% within the week.

With the gradual recovery of domestic logistics and transportation, the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market trading picked up this week. This week, the market price range of industrial sodium pyrosulfite was 3000-3400 yuan / ton, and most of the prices were around 3200 yuan / ton. The inventory of the enterprise is about 30%, and the enterprise mainly completes the orders of old customers. (the above prices refer to the external quotations of domestic mainstream enterprises, and some unreported enterprises are temporarily excluded from their scope. The prices are only for reference and have nothing to do with the final pricing of the manufacturer. Please contact the manufacturers for details).

Since the beginning of May, the price of domestic soda ash has increased by 6.05%, and the price of sulfur has increased by 13.29%. The price of raw materials has continued to rise. The cost will further support the future market price of sodium pyrosulfite.

Aftermarket forecast

According to the analysts of the business club, the market trade rebounded slightly, the raw material cost continued to be high, and the domestic sodium pyrosulfite market price will continue to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.