According to the monitoring of the business agency, the trend of the domestic rare earth market price index fell this week, and the domestic rare earth industry continued to decline. On July 10, the rare earth index was 829 points, unchanged from yesterday, down 17.68% from the highest point of 1007 points in the cycle (2022-02-24), and up 205.90% from the lowest point of 271 points on September 13, 2015. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

This week, the price of products in the domestic light rare earth market continued to fall, and the trend of praseodymium and neodymium in the mainstream rare earth market fell back. In terms of products:

It can be seen from the product price trend chart that the prices of domestic metal neodymium, neodymium oxide, praseodymium oxide, praseodymium neodymium alloy and praseodymium neodymium oxide continue to decline, and the price trend of metal praseodymium is temporarily stable. As of the 11th, the price of neodymium oxide in rare earth in China was 942500 yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.33% this week; The price of neodymium was 1.17 million yuan / ton, down 1.27%; The price of praseodymium oxide was 947500 yuan / ton, with a decrease of 2.07%; The price of praseodymium neodymium oxide was 887500 yuan / ton, down 3.79% this week; The price of praseodymium neodymium alloy was 1.095 million yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.10%; The price of praseodymium metal is 1.23 million yuan / ton, and the price trend is temporarily stable. This week, the domestic rare earth market continued to decline.

The price trend of the domestic rare earth market fell, the recent downstream procurement was not active, and the number of new orders was relatively small. This week, the market trend of praseodymium and neodymium products fell, the wait-and-see mood of magnetic material enterprises deepened, and the purchase intention was weak. Due to the normal supply of mainstream products such as praseodymium and neodymium oxide in some large groups, some small waste recycling enterprises are affected by the shortage of waste supply, and the raw material inventory is insufficient to reduce production. Magnetic material enterprises are mostly distributed in Zhejiang. Affected by the epidemic in the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the demand for orders of downstream new energy vehicles, electric two wheeled vehicles and other vehicles has shrunk, the demand for spot procurement is weak, and the on-site prices have fallen slightly. The downstream demand side has not been significantly improved, the procurement demand is limited, the market negotiation atmosphere is general, and the market price of light rare earth praseodymium and neodymium is mainly declining. This week, the price of praseodymium and neodymium products continued to fall. Separation enterprises took the initiative to reduce their offers, and purchased cautiously. Traders offered actively, and some merchants intended to ship at a profit. The purchase intention of metal plants is not high, and the mentality is waiting for the future, and the market trend of light rare earth is declining.

The national environmental protection supervision is still continuing. Rare earth is purchased on demand. At present, the inventory of neodymium oxide praseodymium has not changed much. Affected by the sentiment of buying up or not, the price trend on the floor has declined slightly. According to statistics, the demand for new energy vehicles increased. The data released by the China Association of automobile manufacturers showed that in May 2022, China’s automobile production and sales reached 1.926 million and 1.862 million respectively, with a month on month increase of 59.7% and 57.6% respectively, and a year-on-year decrease of 5.7% and 12.6% respectively. Automobile production and sales rose sharply. Recently, the demand in the field of new energy was poor, the domestic light rare earth market continued to decline, and the domestic heavy rare earth market price fell slightly.

It can be seen from the trend chart that the price of dysprosium Series in China fell. As of the 11th, the price of dysprosium oxide was 2.415 million yuan / ton, and the price fell by 2.62% this week; Dysprosium ferroalloy price was 2.415 million yuan / ton, and the price trend fell by 1.23%; The price of dysprosium metal was 3.18 million yuan / ton, down 1.24% this week; The price trend of domestic terbium is mainly declining. The price of domestic terbium oxide is 13.75 million yuan / ton, and the price of metal terbium is 17.55 million yuan / ton. The price of heavy rare earths fell slightly, and the leading magnetic material factory purchased on demand, which made the domestic heavy rare earth market fall slightly. The raw material inventory of separation enterprises in the areas where light rare earth mines are used in Sichuan and other places decreased. The reduction of this part of supply had little impact on the operating rate of separation plants in the areas where light rare earth mines are used. However, recently, with the epidemic being controlled, production enterprises have started gradually, the supply side has eased, and the rare earth market atmosphere continues to be flat, Downstream magnetic material enterprises just need to follow up as planned, and their mood is more cautious. However, Myanmar’s exports are limited, and the global supply of rare earth is relatively concentrated. Myanmar is one of the production areas next to China and the United States. Myanmar has a great impact on products in the domestic heavy rare earth market, and the price of heavy rare earth in the market fell slightly.

In addition, the state policy supports the rare earth market. The first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022 are in line with expectations, and the industry pattern continues to be optimized. The Ministry of industry and information technology and the Ministry of natural resources issued the first batch of Rare Earth total amount control indicators in 2022, of which the mining indicators and smelting separation indicators are 100800 tons and 97200 tons respectively. The increase of the index is in line with expectations, and the country is still relatively restrained in releasing the rare earth supply index. In 2022, the first batch of ore indicators / smelting separation indicators were all +20% year-on-year, with a growth rate lower than that of the first batch in 2021 (year-on-year +27.3%/27.6%), and it is expected that the overall supply and demand of rare earth will remain tight in 22 years. The index increment is still concentrated on light rare earth. Among the mining indicators in 2022, rock type rare earths (mainly light rare earths) were 89310 tons, up +23.2% year-on-year, and ionic rare earths were 11490 tons, flat year-on-year. It is expected that the increase concentrated on light rare earths will be a long-term trend, and the domestic rare earth market will still be supported in the long run.

The sustainable development of new energy vehicles, wind power and variable frequency air conditioning in the downstream of rare earth, coupled with the recent resumption of production of terminal factories, the orders of upstream magnetic material enterprises have not improved. Even if the government has issued policies such as halving the purchase tax, the consumption of terminal new energy vehicles will be boosted in the later stage. Business community analyst Chen Ling predicts that the short-term downstream procurement is not active, and the domestic rare earth market price may continue to decline slightly.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of July 13, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate was 6833 yuan / ton, which was 833 yuan / ton higher than that on July 1, 2022 (the reference price of dimethyl carbonate was 6000 yuan / ton), or 13.89%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in the first ten days of July, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market ushered in an upward trend. The overall supply of dimethyl carbonate Market decreased, the factory inventory was low, and the pressure on the supply side was reduced. Since the beginning of July, the quoted prices of dimethyl carbonate manufacturers have been continuously adjusted upward, and the market focus of dimethyl carbonate has been constantly closer. In terms of downstream demand, with the gradual recovery of downstream electrolyte and related industries, the demand for dimethyl carbonate is relatively stable, and the support of the demand side is also gradually strengthened. As of July 13, the domestic ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was around 6600-7000 yuan / ton. Compared with the beginning of the month, the cumulative increase was 600-1000 yuan / ton, an increase of nearly 14%. At present, the trading atmosphere on the floor is good, and the market as a whole is running well.

In terms of upstream propylene oxide, recently (7.4-7.8), the propylene oxide market fell this week. Recently, the raw propylene market has been consolidated at a low level, with general cost support. The supply side is mainly stable. Factory shipments were good at the beginning of the week, and the market was pressureless. As the enthusiasm for downstream procurement weakened, the market atmosphere turned weak, and the market stalemate was weak. On the 8th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 9300-9400 yuan / ton. The downstream procurement mentality was cautious, and the market trading atmosphere was light.

Future trend analysis

At present, the demand side of dimethyl carbonate is performing well. Supported by the positive demand side, the atmosphere for new orders in the market is more active. The dimethyl carbonate data analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market is mostly strong, and the specific trend also needs to pay more attention to the news changes in the supply and demand side.

According to the sample data monitored by the business community, the domestic ethanol market continued to decline from July 4 to 11. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic ethanol producers remained at 7433 yuan / ton. At the weekend, the price fell to 7216 yuan / ton, a decrease of 2.91% during the week, a month on month decrease of 3.35% and a year-on-year increase of 4.78%.

The domestic ethanol market price continues to decline, the actual transaction continues to be low-end, the demand side has entered the off-season of Baijiu, the chemical industry just needs to purchase, and the price is difficult to see a positive boost in the short term.

In terms of raw materials, domestic corn operates stably, and short-term consumption is dominated by on-site inventory. It is expected that the devices will be overhauled intensively in mid July, and the low price of raw materials is difficult to bear the heavy pressure.

In terms of downstream products, the high temperature period in summer is the off-season of downstream Baijiu, and the price of ethanol is not dominant at this stage, which basically maintains the rigid demand for procurement; In terms of chemical industry, ethyl acetate has no device change, and the devices of major manufacturers in Shandong operate normally at full load, with stable short-term demand.

As of July 12, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, Category, Price

Shandong region, Common wheat, 7250-7300 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn superior, 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region, Corn has no water, 8150-8200 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu, General, 7300-7350 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, General, 7200-7250 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, Superior, 7350 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu, No water, 8050-8150 yuan / ton

Anhui region, General, 7150-7200 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region, No water, 8000-8050 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Guangxi, Honey alcohol, 8000-8150 yuan / ton

Guangxi, Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol, 7500-7700 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangxi, Anhydrous ethanol, 8300-8350 yuan / ton self delivery

Guangdong, Corn alcohol, 7800-7850 yuan / ton

Guangdong, Rice / Cassava general ethanol, 7600-7700 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Guangdong, Anhydrous cassava ethanol, 8400-8500 yuan / ton Dongguan self delivery

Henan Province, Superior, 7040-7050 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan Province, Anhydrous ethanol, 7900-8000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region, General, 7350-7400 yuan / ton, including tax

Sichuan region, Corn alcohol, Price reference: 8000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Yunnan, Molasses alcohol, 8130-8150 yuan / ton

Jinzhou District, Liaoning Province, Corn alcohol, general grade 7350-7400 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang region, General, 6700-7000 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7800-7900 yuan / ton

Jilin region, Ordinary alcohol, 6900-7000 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Premium alcohol, 7000-7050 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jilin region, Anhydrous ethanol, 7700-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Recently, the unit has been intensively overhauled, and the supply has contracted in the short term. The cost support of corn and cassava is weak, and the shock is downward; Factories are unable to bear the heavy pressure of weak demand, low-cost shipments, the downstream demand side has entered the off-season of Baijiu, the chemical demand side has maintained rigid demand, small factories are difficult to bear the heavy pressure, and low-end sources of goods are frequent. The ethanol analysts of the business society predict that the domestic ethanol market may continue to fluctuate and decline in the short term.

The domestic MTBE market is descending. According to the data of business agency, the price of MTBE remained at 8620 yuan / ton on July 4 and 8100 yuan / ton on July 11. During the cycle, the price fell by 6.03%, the maximum amplitude was 6.25%, and the price fell by 5.68% month on month, with a year-on-year increase of 36.21%.

The domestic MTBE market fell significantly this week, with crude oil prices rising first and then declining, and finally fell sharply compared with last week, which was a bad market mentality; The gasoline market entered a downward trend, lacking interest in high priced MTBE raw materials, and the overall transaction was poor.

In the upstream, the domestic methanol market was less than expected under the background of macro weakness, and the mainland market fell back after rising in a narrow range.

In terms of external trading, as of the close of July 8, the closing price of Asian MTBE market increased by 37.50 US dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 1103.99-1105.99 US dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE in Europe fell by 61 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at 1572.49-1572.99 dollars / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States increased by $9.48 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at $1468.31-1468.66 / ton (413.61-413.71 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, FOB Singapore ., 1103.99-1105.99 dollars / ton, 37.50 USD / ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1572.49-1572.99 USD / ton, – US $61 / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1468.31-1468.66 dollars / ton, 9.84 USD / ton

The spot supply in the market increased, and the sales pressure in some regions remained. MTBE analysts of business agency believe that the domestic MTBE market may be mainly sorted out in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic liquefied natural gas was 5918 yuan / ton on July 4 and 5816 yuan / ton on July 8. Domestic LNG prices fell 1.72% this week.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Domestic LNG prices rose slightly this week and then fell again, with a decline of 1.72% during the week. The domestic liquid price rebounded slightly at the beginning of the week, and fell in the middle of the week and continued to the weekend. The LNG market is weak this week, and the terminal demand is sluggish. Manufacturers mostly cut prices, and the market is bearish. As of July 8, the quotation of Inner Mongolia is 5750-5850 yuan / ton, that of Shaanxi is 5850-5900 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi is 5900-6000 yuan / ton, that of Ningxia is 5800-6020 yuan / ton, that of Hebei is 5950-6100 yuan / ton, and that of Henan is 6050-6200 yuan / ton.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that the current LNG market is weak, and there is no good news for the time being. The downstream demand is insufficient, the market wait-and-see mood increases, and the downward trend is difficult to change. It is expected that LNG will continue to decline in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, isopropanol prices fell this week. The average price of isopropanol in China was 7300 yuan / ton last Thursday and 7125 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 2.4% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison chart of price trend of acetone and isopropanol

The domestic isopropanol market price fell this week. At present, isopropanol manufacturers mainly export orders. The domestic isopropanol market is relatively light, with strong wait-and-see sentiment, general downstream demand, and rigid demand. Up to now, most quotations of Shandong isopropanol are about 6900-7200 yuan / ton; Most of Jiangsu isopropanols are quoted at about 7200 yuan / ton. Internationally, isopropanol in the United States closed stable on July 5, while the European isopropanol market closed down.

In terms of raw acetone, the ex factory price of domestic acetone fell this week. The average price of domestic acetone was 5560 yuan / ton last Thursday and 5360 yuan / ton this Thursday. The price fell by 3.6% during the week. The strength of terminal procurement is general, and the actual orders on site are insufficient. The business community predicts that the acetone market will continue to be weak in the short term.

As for propylene as raw material, according to the price chart of business agency, up to now, the mainstream quotation of propylene (Shandong) market is 7400-7700 yuan / ton, the market supply pressure increases, and the price pressure drops. Propylene price is expected to be adjusted at a low level in the near future.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

Isopropanol analysts from the chemical branch of the business club believe that at present, domestic factories are mainly export orders, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is poor. Upstream, acetone fell, propylene fell, and cost support was weak. It is expected that the market focus of isopropanol will be downward in the short term.

In July, the domestic liquefied gas market was relatively strong, and Shandong civil gas market rose by a narrow margin. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5890.00 yuan / ton on July 1 and 5910.00 yuan / ton on July 5, with an increase of 0.34% during the period and 34.32% over the same period last year.

As of July 5, the mainstream prices of liquefied gas in various regions in China are as follows:

Region, Mainstream quotation

North China, 5900-6000 yuan / ton

South China, 5600-5800 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 5800-6100 yuan / ton

Shandong region, 5850-5900 yuan / ton

In July, the overall price of domestic liquefied gas market was more strong, and the civil gas market in Shandong was higher, but the fluctuation range was relatively limited. Recently, the international crude oil price has fluctuated and risen, and the cost side has brought some support to the market. The downstream maintains the replenishment on demand, the market trading atmosphere is general, and there is no pressure on the production and sales of manufacturers in Shandong market. However, due to seasonal factors, the continued high temperature in some regions has not significantly improved the terminal demand, which has significantly restrained the market and limited the range of price fluctuations.

Recently, the LPG futures market has increased significantly, which has brought some support to the spot market. On July 5, the opening price of LPG futures contract 2208 was 5938, the highest price was 6046, the lowest price was 5856, the closing price was 5902, the previous settlement price was 5779, the settlement price was 5931, up 123, the trading volume was 143777, the position was 60874, and the daily increase was -2191. (quotation unit: yuan / ton)

Recently, the international crude oil price and futures market have brought obvious support. The civil market price of liquefied gas is relatively strong, and the upstream pressure of Shandong market will not be hit for the time being. However, the current seasonal impact is more obvious, the terminal consumption is slow, and the market trading atmosphere is general. In addition, on July 5, the international crude oil fell sharply, and the price fell sharply. The news is bad for the market mentality. It is expected that the market price of Shandong civil gas will fall in the short term.

Acetic anhydride prices fell sharply in June

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply in June, and the high level of acetic anhydride market fell back. As of June 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 7325 yuan / ton, down 14.33% from 8550 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid peaked and fell, the cost of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride market increased.

The price of raw material acetic acid fell sharply in June

It can be seen from the trend chart of acetic acid price of business club that the price of acetic acid peaked and fell in June, and the overall acetic acid market fell sharply. As of June 30, the price of acetic acid was 4150 yuan / ton, down 24.68% from 5510 yuan / ton on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The price of acetic acid plummeted, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased.

Methanol prices rose first and then fell

It can be seen from the methanol price trend chart of business club that the methanol price first rose and then fell in June. The overall methanol market in June fluctuated and stabilized. As of June 30, the methanol price was 2620 yuan / ton, which was 2717.5 yuan / ton higher than that on June 1 at the beginning of the month. The methanol price was relatively stable. The price of methanol has stabilized, the cost of raw materials of acetic anhydride has stabilized, and the upward momentum of acetic anhydride has weakened.

Outlook

According to the acetic anhydride data analyst of business agency, the price of raw acetic acid plummeted in June, the cost of acetic anhydride fell, and the downward pressure on acetic anhydride increased; In June, there were many maintenance enterprises in the acetic acid industry chain, and the supply of acetic acid decreased. In the off-season, the pressure of acetic anhydride decline increased. In general, the price of acetic anhydride raw materials fell, and the market demand was off-season. It is expected that the price of acetic anhydride will fluctuate and fall in the future.

According to the bulk commodity list data of business agency, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong is stable this week. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong is 1270.00 yuan / ton. The current price is flat month on month, and the current price fell by 7.13% year-on-year.

formaldehyde

The formaldehyde market price in Shandong was basically stable this week. From the above figure, we can see that the formaldehyde market has not fluctuated much in the past two months, and the market has fluctuated and consolidated this week. As of July 4, the mainstream market price in Shandong is 1230-1300 yuan / ton. Recently, the methanol market has been shaken and consolidated, and the cost support is general. The formaldehyde market is basically stable under the influence of methanol, and the downstream demand is difficult to improve. Just need to purchase is maintained, and the formaldehyde market transaction is general, and the market remains unchanged.

Upstream methanol: the domestic methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, and the raw coal market dragged down the atmosphere of methanol futures, and the spot market fell in a narrow range. In terms of supply, the production enterprises in the main production areas have been overhauled, showing a little positive, but the market sentiment is poor, the pick-up volume of the social warehouse is still significantly low, and the inventory continues to accumulate.

This week, the methanol market fluctuated little. At present, the operation of downstream plate plants is general. They are more wait-and-see about the formaldehyde market, with strong bargaining sentiment. The market inventory digestion is poor. It is difficult to improve the formaldehyde price, maintain the shipment at a low price, and the formaldehyde market is weak.

Recently, the domestic methanol market has been shaken and sorted out, and the demand of downstream wood panel factories has continued to be weak. Therefore, formaldehyde analysts from the chemical branch of the business agency expect that the recent formaldehyde price in Shandong will mainly fall in shock.

The domestic MTBE market rebounded higher. According to the data of business news agency, the price of MTBE remained at 8500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 8610 yuan / ton at the end of the week. During the cycle, the price increased by 1.29%, the maximum amplitude was 2.82%, and the price increased by 5.81% month on month and 38.13% year on year.

Trend chart of MTBE average domestic production price of business agency:

The domestic MTBE market rebounded at a high level this week. The specific reasons are: crude oil was first suppressed and then increased, but the price is still at a high level, giving the market a certain psychological support; Gasoline prices have also followed the upward trend, with a slight increase in capacity utilization and an appropriate increase in demand for raw materials; Outlet support.

In the upstream, the domestic methanol market rebounded at a low level, the mainland transactions were heavy again, and the coastal market performed generally.

In terms of external trading, as of the close on June 30, the closing price of Asian MTBE market was reduced by 46 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Singapore closed at 1318.99-1320.99 dollars / ton. The closing price of the European MTBE market was reduced by $98 / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB ara closed at $1782.49-1782.99 / ton. The closing price of MTBE market in the United States decreased by 64.89 dollars / ton compared with the previous trading day, and FOB Gulf FOB closed at 1578.25-1578.6 dollars / ton (444.58-444.68 cents / gallon).

Region, country., Closing price, Up and down

Asia, FOB Singapore, 1318.99-1320.99 USD / ton, – 46 dollars / ton

Europe, FOB ARA., 1782.49-1782.99 dollars / ton, – 98 dollars / ton

U.S.A., FOB Bay, 1578.25-1578.6 USD / ton, 64.89 USD / ton

The limited spot resources in the market have led to the continuous rise of prices in the near future. However, as the price rises to a high level, the downstream cost increases greatly, and the demand for raw materials is gradually flat. Business agency MTBE analysts believe that the domestic MTBE market may narrow in the short term.