According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of September 20, the reference average price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in mainstream areas in China was around 1068 yuan/ton. Compared with September 11, the price was basically flat. Compared with September 1 (the reference price of phosphorus ore was 1065 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 4 yuan/ton, or 0.37%; Compared with August 1 (the reference price of phosphate rock is 1100 yuan/ton), the price decreased by 32 yuan/ton, or 2.91%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business community that after the Mid Autumn Festival, the domestic market for medium and high-end grade phosphate ores was mainly stable and consolidated. The market was generally quiet, with little change in information. From the supply side, the supply side is still tight, and the supply side continues to provide high support for the market. From the demand side, the low commencement of downstream phosphate fertilizer has brought some concern to the market. After the festival, the phosphate ore market was light and stable as a whole. As of September 20, the market price of 30% grade phosphorus ore in China is around 1030-1150 yuan/ton, and there is also a gap between the price and the original ore specification, powder to lump ratio and other factors. The details need to be negotiated. The market price of 28% grade phosphate ore is near 850-980 yuan/ton, and the market price of 32% grade phosphate ore is near 1200 yuan/ton. At present, the trading atmosphere in the phosphate rock yard is mild, and the downstream is mainly purchased on demand.

In terms of downstream yellow phosphorus, since September (9.1-9.19), the domestic yellow phosphorus market has been operating steadily as a whole. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the reference price of yellow phosphorus on September 19 was 36625 yuan/ton, up 14.45% compared with September 1 (32000 yuan/ton).

Forecast and analysis of phosphate rock future market trend

The National Day holiday is coming, and the downstream demand is relatively stable. The phosphorus ore data engineer of the business community believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphorus ore market is mainly stable and operates in a balanced way, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the changes in the information on the supply and demand side.

Price trend of magnesium metal

Market analysis this week

According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of the 16th, the average price in the domestic market was 24733.33 yuan/ton, down 1.98% from the beginning of the week. This week, the domestic magnesium metal market was weak due to the drag of demand, and the overall decline was not large. Most of the deals were made in the form of rigid demand.

Supply and demand

On the factory side, the factory quotation was firm at the beginning of the week, and the willingness to stabilize the market was strong. In view of the poor transaction, some factories took the initiative to reduce the price for shipment. After the centralized procurement before the festival, the downstream users bought less this week, the export order performance was poor, and the wait-and-see atmosphere in magnesium market was strong.

Raw materials

The price increase notice of raw material semicarbon was issued, and it will be implemented from the 20th day: 2000 yuan/ton for large materials, 1900 yuan/ton for medium materials, 1850 yuan/ton for small materials, and 1300 yuan/ton for semicarbon foam. The mainstream price of ferrosilicon is about 7600-7800 yuan/ton. The Ningxia manufacturer resumed production, and the supply began to recover. The futures market fluctuated. It is difficult for the spot price to fluctuate greatly before the steel plant bidding in October.

Future market forecast

To sum up, with the centralized procurement by downstream users before the festival, the overall market trading atmosphere was cold and the demand could not be followed up, resulting in the weak price performance of magnesium ingots. Considering that the price of ferrosilicon is at a high level, the price of semicarbon is raised, the cost of magnesium ingots remains high, and the magnesium factory has not lowered its quotation significantly, it is expected that the magnesium market will be slightly consolidated in the short term.

From September 9, 2022 to September 16, 2022, the bidding price of crude benzol rose. Last weekend, it was 6729 yuan/ton, and this weekend, it was 6915 yuan/ton, with a weekly increase of 2.76%.

In terms of crude oil, international crude oil futures fell sharply over the weekend. The settlement price of the main contract of the U.S. WTI crude oil futures was 85.10 dollars/barrel, down 3.38 dollars or 3.8%; The settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was 90.84 dollars/barrel, down 3.26 dollars or 3.5%. WTI crude oil fell nearly 4%, hitting a one week low. At the macro level, the Federal Reserve may significantly increase interest rates, making the dollar stronger again, depressing oil price estimates. In addition, the expectation of global economic recession continues to depress oil prices.

The crude oil analysts of the business community believe that in the short term, the good news on the supply side of the oil market and the bad news on the demand side will continue to play a game. In particular, the trend of geopolitical tension is becoming more serious, and the oil price is subject to more interference factors, which will further aggravate the shock of the oil market. The probability of short-term oil market wide shocks is high.

Summary of Sinopec Pure Benzene Price Adjustment (Unit: yuan/ton)

Date., Adjusted Price., Adjusted Amount

August 11., 7950., – 200

August 16., 7750., – 200

August 18., 7500., – 250

August 30., 7600.,+100

September 6., 7750.,+150

On September 6, 2022, the ex factory price of Sinopec pure benzene will be increased by 150 yuan/ton, and the current implementation is 7750 yuan/ton.

Other enterprises’ quotation: Jingbo Petrochemical quoted 7900 yuan/ton, HSBC Petrochemical quoted 7800 yuan/ton, Weilian Chemical quoted 7853 yuan/ton, Xinhai Petrochemical quoted 7850 yuan/ton, Hongrun Petrochemical quoted 7950 yuan/ton.

The K-bar chart of commodity prices reflects the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of a bar chart based on the concept of price trend K-line. Investors can buy, sell and invest according to the changes in the K-bar chart. Red means rising; Green means: down; The height of the K column indicates the range of rise and fall. The weekly K-bar chart of pure benzene shows that the price of pure benzene has fallen continuously since July, and it has recovered slightly in late August and early September.

From the perspective of the industrial chain, the pure benzene market rose first and then fell this week. At the beginning of the week, supported by the double advantages of crude oil and styrene, the price of pure benzene rose, and downstream people generally purchased on demand. The enthusiasm for purchasing high priced goods was limited, and the overall market transaction was average. In the near weekend, with the impact of the lower crude oil price and the overall decline of styrene, the price of pure benzene decreased slightly, and the market as a whole stayed on the sidelines. However, the ex factory price of benzene hydrogenation enterprises rose overall this week, driven by the improvement of downstream procurement. On the supply side, the operating rate of pure benzene declined slightly this week, and the arrival of cargoes in East China ports was delayed, resulting in a slight shortage of market supply.

The crude benzol price continued to rise this week. The bidding price in Shandong Province this week was 6980-6985 yuan/ton, 150 yuan/ton higher than last week. In terms of supply, the overall construction of coking enterprises this week was fairly good, the supply of crude benzol was relatively stable, and the growth rate in other regions of China also remained at 100-200 yuan/ton. In terms of downstream demand, the operating rate of benzol hydrogenation enterprises declined slightly this week, but the demand for crude benzol was moderate due to the impact of pre holiday stock. In the future market, the business community believed that, near the National Day and the Twentieth National Congress, coking enterprises expected to increase their production limit in the future market, the supply of crude benzol was expected to be tight, and the industry chain was still positive. Affected by the demand for goods before the festival and other positive factors, the crude benzol market was expected to operate stably and strongly in the future market, with a certain upward space.

According to the data monitored by the business community, the prices of industrial and battery grade lithium carbonate continued to rise this week. On September 15, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 494000 yuan/ton, which was 0.82% higher than the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of industrial lithium carbonate in East China was 490000 yuan/ton). On September 15, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 510000 yuan/ton, up 1.19% compared with the average price at the beginning of the week (on September 11, the average price of battery grade lithium carbonate in East China was 504000 yuan/ton).

According to the observation of market changes, lithium carbonate prices showed an upward trend this week. In terms of market supply, with the completion of power rationing and mid year maintenance in Sichuan, the commencement of lithium salt plants has risen. However, due to the shortage of supply in the early stage, in the near future, long orders in the early stage of delivery are mainly used. With the gradual release of the epidemic situation in Qinghai, some enterprises in Qinghai have delivered a small amount of goods, but the market supply is still tight.

In terms of demand, the downstream demand gap has expanded, the market procurement volume has been increasing, and the market is in a state of weak supply and strong demand. With the arrival of the fourth quarter, downstream manufacturers are actively stocking up and purchasing, and the market has entered a stage where one product is hard to find, which has driven the price of lithium carbonate up.

The downstream lithium hydroxide price remained stable, the lithium oxide market was at a high level, and the lithium carbonate price rose, driving the lithium hydroxide market significantly. The market supply was increased compared with the early stage, but the manufacturers mainly made up long orders, and the spot supply was tight. The downstream inquiry and procurement were active, and the focus of the lithium hydroxide market negotiation was at a high level.

The downstream price of lithium iron phosphate remained stable, with a small range of price fluctuations. The downstream just needed to purchase, the purchasing atmosphere was general, and the overall market was stable. At present, the manufacturer’s supply was still tight, and the supply side was obviously insufficient. The contract customers were mainly responsible for ordering and shipping, and the number of new orders was limited.

Lithium carbonate analysts from the business community believe that with the arrival of the fourth quarter, the demand for downstream market procurement has increased, but the market is bullish. The manufacturers are reluctant to sell lithium carbonate, and there are relatively few spot goods on the market. It is expected that the price of lithium carbonate will fluctuate at a high level in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of the business community, as of September 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 10200.00 yuan/ton, 2.86% higher than that of last Wednesday (September 7), 14.82% higher than that of August 13, and 9.47% lower than that of last three months.

Recently (9.7-9.13), the market of propylene oxide has risen steadily. Recently, the market price of raw propylene has risen slightly, and the cost has some support. Before the festival, the on-site devices are mainly stable, the supply is tight, the factory shipments are smooth, the demand side follows up generally, the market is relatively strong before the festival, the market returns after the festival, the market shipments are stable, and the wait-and-see attitude is mainstream. On the 13th, the mainstream quotation of the propylene oxide market in Shandong was around 10400-10500 yuan/ton.

The upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of the business community, on September 13, the reference price of propylene was 7350.60, up 3.52% compared with September 1 (7100.60).

The downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of the business community, the reference price of propylene glycol was 9900.00 on September 13, an increase of 7.03% compared with September 1 (9250.00).

The epoxy propane analysts of the business community believe that the current cost support is fair, the supply side is not under temporary pressure, and the demand side is flat. It is expected that in the short term, the epoxy propane market will be dominated by deadlock, and more attention should be paid to the market news guidance.

Recent calcium carbide price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week. This week, the average ex factory price of mainstream calcium carbide manufacturers in Northwest China dropped by 0.89% from 3733.33 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 3700.00 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a year-on-year decrease of 31.69%. On September 12, the carbide commodity index was 96.94, unchanged from yesterday, down 54.32% from the highest point of 212.23 (2021-10-26) in the cycle, and up 74.70% from the lowest point of 55.49 on March 14, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

The upstream cost support is insufficient, and the demand of downstream manufacturers is general

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the ex factory price of calcium carbide in northwest China fell slightly this week.

The price of the upstream semicarbon market fluctuated in a narrow range, while the price of the downstream PVC market rose slightly. The PVC market price this week rose from 6447.14 yuan/ton at the end of last week to 6504.29 yuan/ton at the end of this week, an increase of 0.89% and a year-on-year decrease of 33.37%. The PVC market price rose slightly. Downstream customers were not enthusiastic about calcium carbide procurement. Downstream PVC market had a negative impact on calcium carbide price.

Downstream market fluctuates in a narrow range, and calcium carbide may fall in the future

In the middle of September, calcium carbide market fell mainly due to narrow fluctuations. The price of raw material blue carbon is weak, the cost support of calcium carbide is weak, the downstream PVC market fluctuates in a narrow range, the downstream demand is general, and the rising power of calcium carbide is insufficient. In mid September, carbide prices in northwest China may fall in a narrow range.

Recent price trend of hydrochloric acid

It can be seen from the above figure that the domestic hydrochloric acid price is temporarily stable this week, with the average market price of 163.33 yuan / ton. Compared with the same period last year, it decreased by 44.32% year-on-year. On September 4, the hydrochloric acid commodity index was 42.98, which was the same as yesterday, down 68.83% from the highest point 137.89 (October 26, 2021) in the cycle, and up 139.04% from the lowest point 17.98 on September 5, 2012. (Note: the period refers to September 1, 2011 to now)

Insufficient upstream support and weak downstream procurement

Judging from the manufacturer’s quotation, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price is temporarily stable this week.

From the perspective of the upstream and downstream industrial chains of hydrochloric acid, the upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated at a low level, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride market price was adjusted at a low level, with a price of 2095.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 19.11%; The market price of ammonium chloride fell slightly, from 1145.00 yuan / ton at the end of last week to 1057.50 yuan / ton at the end of this week, a decrease of 7.64%. On the whole, the upstream support is insufficient, and the enthusiasm of downstream procurement is weakened.

Future forecast

In the first ten days of September, the market price of hydrochloric acid mainly fell in a narrow range. The upstream liquid chlorine market has been consolidated at a low level recently, and the cost support is insufficient. The downstream polyaluminum chloride and ammonium chloride market have declined slightly, and the downstream purchasing intention is general. Business analysts believe that hydrochloric acid has suffered a small shock and decline recently.

According to the data monitored by the business association, the PP market rose in a narrow range in early September, and the spot price of each drawing brand rose more or fell less. As of September 5, the mainstream offer price of T30S (wire drawing) from domestic manufacturers and traders was about 8083.33 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.83% compared with the average price at the beginning of last week.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: on the upstream side, the propylene market was collated horizontally this week. Last month, the focus of spot prices continued to move downward, and the staged rebound was insufficient. The current supply pressure is OK, but the on-site demand is generally supported, and there is no centralized stock preparation operation. For the next traditional peak season, there will be limited improvement in the mentality of operators. It is expected that propylene’s rising resistance will remain, and the market may continue to sort out and operate.

The propylene price was flat on the whole, and the PP cost side was generally supported last week. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of PP polymerization enterprises has changed a little recently, and the proportion of wire drawing materials is not high. Last week, the inventory fell by a narrow margin, and the supply pressure was OK. Downstream demand has increased slightly, and power and production restrictions of some terminal factories have ended, but most of the goods are scattered small orders. Traders’ mentality is general, and the offer follows the market. It is expected that the spot market of PP wire drawing materials will be strong in the short term.

In terms of fiber materials, according to the data monitored by the business agency, as of September 5, the spot price of domestic fiber PP was weak. The mainstream offer price of Z30S (fiber) from domestic manufacturers and traders is about 8050 yuan / ton, up or down by + 0.84% compared with the average price at the beginning of last week, with a year-on-year decline of – 5.11%. This week, the load of the main downstream non-woven fabric enterprises of PP fiber materials was stable as a whole, and the demand and operation of end enterprises were limited. The digestion speed of downstream products such as non-woven fabrics is general, enterprises reduce prices and ship goods, and the replenishment of fiber PP is biased towards bulk orders. Due to the lack of confidence of the market in the macro economic pattern and the heavy wait-and-see mood in the industrial chain, it is expected that the fiber market will have a limited increase in the short term.

In terms of meltblown materials, this week’s meltblown PP market was collated horizontally. As of September 5, the average quotation of domestic meltblown material sample enterprises monitored by the business agency was about 9166.67 yuan / ton, which was the same as the average price at the beginning of last week, with a year-on-year decrease of – 0.36%. In terms of international health events, the current situation in various countries is still not optimistic, and the recent explosive development in neighboring Japan. There is a rebound in some regions of China, but the overall epidemic prevention pressure is not strong. Medical meltblown cloth materials are in the off-season of consumption, and there is no obvious boost in domestic and foreign demand, which does not support the spot price well. The stock of meltblown materials in the market is sufficient, and the saturation of domestic meltblown materials and cloth enterprises is high. It is expected that the recent market of meltblown PP will still be dominated by weak operation.

Future forecast

PP analysts of business club believe that the polypropylene market rose narrowly last week, the raw material propylene market was sideways, and the cost side of PP was generally supported. The demand of end-users is slowly recovering, and the offers of merchants follow the market. From the survey results and market reaction, the industry is not confident about whether the demand in the traditional peak season is on schedule and sufficient due to the impact of the economic environment. It is expected that the PP market will rise or be hindered in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, the average price of PS ordinary materials at the beginning of this week was 10583 yuan / ton, and the average price of PS ordinary materials at the weekend was 10550 yuan / ton, down 0.31% and 3.51% compared with the same period of last year.

2、 Market analysis

At present, the PS (polystyrene) market offer is slightly down, styrene is strong, downstream purchasing interest is low, merchants’ shipments are under pressure, and they continue to yield profits. Reference of mainstream brand excluding tax quotation: Zhenjiang Qimei pg33 quoted 9680 yuan / ton, Taiwan Taihua 5250 quoted 11290 yuan / ton, Ningbo Taihua 535n quoted 9850 yuan / ton, Shanghai Secco 123p quoted 9670 yuan / ton, Thailand Petrochemical 150 quoted 10800 yuan / ton, 650 quoted 10070 yuan / ton; Guangzhou Petrochemical 525 reported 9200 yuan / ton.

Crude oil continues to decline, styrene is strong, petrochemical manufacturers are operating at a high price, and the supply of some materials in the market has increased. It is not excluded that merchants sell at a discount. The mainstream price of GPPS (polyphenylene sulfide) in the East China market is 9600-10900 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of hips (polystyrene) is 10050-11600 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the downstream trading atmosphere of PS is cold, and it is expected that the domestic PS (polystyrene) market will be adjusted in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of August 30, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent grade excellent products was 16450.00 yuan / ton. In August, the PMMA market was mainly in a narrow downward trend, with an overall decline of 1.94% in August and a decrease of 1.94% compared with the price at the beginning of the month. At present, the mainstream price in the market is 16500 yuan / ton. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the negotiation focus is stable.

In the first ten days of July, as of August 9, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16475.00 yuan / ton this week. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the price of the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was not large. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range this week was not large, and the overall market supply and demand were balanced, This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16875.00 yuan / ton. The overall market was mainly stable, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, and merchants actively shipped and gave away orders. Compared with last week’s price, the price of PMMA was stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable and the supply side is normal.

In the middle of July, as of August 17, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16450.00 yuan / ton this week. This week, the price was narrow and strong. Compared with the price in the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was not large. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained around 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range this week was not large. The overall market supply and demand were balanced, This week, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16450.00 yuan / ton. The overall market was mainly stable, and the price change was not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton, and merchants actively shipped and gave away orders. Compared with last week’s price, the price of PMMA was stable, the overall supply and demand were balanced, and the purchase was just needed. At present, the focus of negotiation is stable and the supply side is normal.

In late July, as of August 23, the average price of domestic general transparent grade premium PMMA was 16425.00 yuan / ton this week. The price of this week was narrow and strong. Compared with the price of the same period last week, the price fluctuation range was small. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remained at about 16500 yuan / ton. The overall PMMA market price remained stable. The focus of negotiation was stable. The price range of this week was small. The overall market supply and demand were balanced, This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent grade excellent products is 16425.00 yuan / ton. The overall market is stable, and the price change is not obvious. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is around 16500 yuan / ton. Merchants are actively shipping and giving up orders. Compared with last week, the price of PMMA is stable, the overall supply and demand is balanced, and the purchase is just needed. At present, the negotiation focus is stable and the supply side is normal.

Rubber and plastic index: on August 29, the rubber and plastic index was 697 points, up 1 point from yesterday, down 34.25% from the highest point 1060 points (2012-03-14) in the cycle, and up 32.01% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the period refers to 2011-12-01 to now).

PMMA analysts of business agency believe that it is expected that the white carbon black market will run smoothly in September, with a small fluctuation range. (if you want to get more commodity information and master commodity prices, you are welcome to subscribe to the commodities of the business club through the official account of the business club. The market is an opportunity.).