In June 2026, the domestic MIBK market showed an overall weak downward trend, with an accelerated decline rate, weak supply and demand, and unsupported costs. Affected by multiple negative factors such as loose supply, off-season downstream demand, and shrinking exports, the market price center has shifted significantly downwards, trading has been light, and industry players have a strong wait-and-see attitude, resulting in a lack of effective positive support throughout the month.

The spot price of MIBK fell throughout June, and the decline intensified at the end of the month. The market benchmark price at the beginning of the month was 11860 yuan/ton, which fell to 9467 yuan/ton on June 30th, with a decline of over 20% during the month.
From a technical perspective, this month’s moving average has been consistently negative, indicating a clear weakness. On June 24th, the average difference between M10-M20 was -405 yuan/ton, indicating continued weakness; On the 26th, there was a brief slight bottoming out but weak support; At the end of the month, the downward trend resumed, with the spread widening to -451.67 yuan/ton, indicating sufficient downward momentum, and mainstream quotes approaching the 10000 yuan mark. The prices of major domestic mainstream markets have synchronously declined, regional price differences have narrowed, and the market trend is highly consistent.
Supply side: Overcapacity is prominent, and inventory and shipment pressures are relatively high
In June, the domestic MIBK equipment operated stably, with high industry start-up rates and no large-scale maintenance, and the overall supply of goods was sufficient. The continuous release of new and expanded production capacity in the early stage of the industry has further highlighted the pattern of overcapacity in the market.
The manufacturer’s inventory continues to accumulate, and in order to recoup funds and reduce inventory, they generally offer discounts and loose quotes, which continue to suppress market prices. Overall, they are in a weak state of loose supply, high inventory, and pressure on shipments.
On the demand side: The terminal is weak during the off-season, and market trading is sluggish
The off-season demand is the core reason for the weak market this month. The downstream industries of MIBK, such as coatings, inks, and fine chemicals, have been affected by the high temperatures in summer, resulting in sluggish production and only sporadic replenishment for essential needs, without centralized stocking. The downstream derivatives industry has insufficient orders and limited profits, and raw material procurement is generally controlled in quantity.
Traders are cautious in their operations, tend to fast in and out, and pick up goods as needed, resulting in a low willingness to stockpile. As the core consumption area, the procurement volume of the East China market (with a demand proportion of 42.7%) continues to shrink, further exacerbating the supply-demand imbalance and suppressing the market recovery.
Cost side: Low volatility of raw materials, loose and unsupported production profits
This month, the core raw material acetone has fluctuated weakly, with no upward momentum, and there is a complete lack of support on the cost side. The low-level operation of raw materials has led to loose production profits for MIBK, and manufacturers have no willingness to raise prices. Coupled with weak fundamentals, the company continues to lower prices according to the market, driving the market to continue to weaken.
Market Trend Prediction for July
In June, the MIBK market experienced a weak downward trend, with core bearish factors including overcapacity, off-season demand, cost overruns, and shrinking exports. Multiple factors led to price drops and sluggish trading. There is no explosive market trend in the industry in the short term, and the trend is highly dependent on fundamentals. The follow-up focus is on tracking the start-up of the equipment, the recovery of downstream demand, and changes in acetone raw material prices and import and export data.