This week (August 16-20), the high level of domestic liquid ammonia market fell, and the market price generally corrected. After the correction at the beginning of the month, the liquid ammonia stopped falling and stabilized in the middle of the month. However, since the middle of the month, the market supply and demand pressure has gradually increased, and the liquid ammonia went down again. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 1.75%. This week, the domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers mainly reduced the overall price. With the resumption of some maintenance devices, the market supply increased. Due to the impact of the epidemic in China, the road transportation was limited to a certain extent, and the manufacturer’s shipment speed slowed down. The liquid ammonia changed from the original shortage of supply to excess supply. The manufacturer was forced to reduce the price and ship under the pressure of inventory, and the market continued to fall.

This week, the market situation of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to decline. Hualu unit in this area is still in the maintenance period and has no export. Most manufacturers’ units are normal, and the supply of goods in the region is sufficient. Large manufacturers generally reduce the ex factory price by 100-200 yuan / ton. Affected by the epidemic, the traffic has been affected to some extent, the shipment speed of most manufacturers has slowed down, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream price in the region is 4450-4600 yuan / ton.

The liquid ammonia Market in Hebei also decreased to varying degrees, and the market performance was weak. Hebei is also subject to certain traffic restrictions. The manufacturers’ shipment speed slows down and gradually accumulates the warehouse. In addition, the early maintenance devices of large factories in Hebei have resumed production one after another, and the supply of goods has gradually increased. At present, the amount of ammonia in this area remains relatively high. The manufacturers reduce the price and ship goods, and discharge the warehouse to reduce the pressure. At the weekend, the mainstream price in the region is 4400-4600 yuan / ton. Downstream generally rational procurement, demand is difficult to be large-scale.

In the future, at present, the price adjustment of domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers has not stopped, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is generally high, and the market supply pressure tends to increase. Although the short-term risk in transportation has not been relieved, the domestic epidemic peak has passed, the restrictive measures have been lifted one after another, and the fertilizer consumption in autumn ushers in the peak season, and the market procurement will gradually increase, The increase in demand may stabilize the price of ammonia.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of August 22, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 11733.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.33% over the average price of 11466.67 yuan / ton on August 16, and an increase of 4.30% over the same period last month.

On August 22, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 110.53, the same as yesterday, down 10.63% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 115.96% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the construction of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market was basically stable, and the construction in Shanxi was started at the end of August. International crude oil fell sharply and domestic chemical prices fell slightly; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is basically stable. The resin market is dominated by weak consolidation and just need procurement. As of the 22nd, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11800 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 11800 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week. On August 15, the average price of pure benzene was 7540 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the average price of pure benzene was 7480 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton, or 0.8%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong was slightly corrected, which was 7375 yuan / ton last weekend, 7425 yuan / ton this weekend, and increased by 50 yuan / ton this week. The price of n-butane rose, and the price in Shandong was 5060 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, according to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), there are 46 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 3.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were acetone (12.28%), isopropanol (11.76%) and silicone DMC (6.83%). A total of 23 commodities decreased month on month, and the top three products were dimethyl carbonate (- 4.75%), styrene (- 2.95%) and 1,4-butanediol (- 2.60%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.79%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is tight, some factories are pre sold to September, and the downstream resin market just needs to be purchased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

According to the statistics of business agency, the domestic nylon market was running smoothly this week (August 16-20). As of August 20, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY (excellent product); 70D / 24F) quotation: 20220 yuan / ton; Nylon POY (superior product); 86d / 24F) offer 17775 yuan / ton; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d / 12F) is reported at 20800 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week.

Nylon price chart

From the perspective of price trend, since August, the quotation of nylon manufacturers has been more stable and wait-and-see. The market trend of nylon industrial chain is weak, the supply of manufacturers is stable, but there is still resistance to shipment, it is difficult to clinch a deal at a high price on the site, the demand of downstream terminal market is flat, the production and sales of the overall market are sluggish, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the site is strong.

Upstream raw material market analysis

Nylon upstream raw material cyclohexanone market consolidation. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 9 to 20, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 10220 yuan / ton to 10240 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.20%, which was basically stable.

PA6 price chart

The domestic market of upstream raw material PA6 operated smoothly this week, and the spot price was stable. As of August 19, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 42.72%. In early August, although the upstream support for the cost side of PA6 weakened, the price of caprolactam was high and the cost pressure of PA6 was high. At the same time, the domestic slice inventory increased at the end of last month. End users follow up slowly and have a strong wait-and-see mentality. The atmosphere on the floor is weak and the long and short are tangled. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may be deadlocked in the short term.

Cyclohexanone price chart

Downstream market demand

Since August, the price trend of nylon has basically remained stable, and the stalemate operation is the main. The nylon filament manufacturer’s installation started fairly well, and the spot supply on the site remained sufficient. Although the manufacturer actively shipped, the customers in the downstream terminal field were not very popular. As the customers’ intention to take goods weakened after the price rose, they followed up more on demand, and the overall market just needed to buy was also weak; The market price of nylon cord fabric is strong and high. Although the high viscosity chips in the upstream remain stable, the cost side support is OK. The supply of manufacturers is tight in the early stage, and the supply gradually stabilizes in the near future. The downstream terminal nylon manufacturers just need to follow up. Some manufacturers start low, mainly de stocking, and the overall market remains high; The transaction of nylon staple fiber market is relatively flexible. The upstream conventional spinning chips are adjusted in a narrow range, the cost side does not play a strong role in supporting the staple fiber, the spot supply in the field remains stable, the demand in the downstream core spun yarn field is OK, but the proportion is small, the demand in other fields is general, and the actual transaction in the field has little room for negotiation, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for the future market.

Future forecast

In August, the nylon market trend was stable and weak, the cost side support was stable, the on-site supply remained stable, and the nylon terminal demand had not been significantly improved. Most downstream enterprises remained normal, just needed to take goods, the order support was limited, the enthusiasm for taking goods was not high, the actual trading atmosphere on the site was flat, and the manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, but the market mentality was mainly bearish. Business analysts expect nylon spot prices to be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 17025 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.15% compared with Monday’s price, an increase of 5.31% compared with July 13 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 16166.67 yuan / ton), and a year-on-year decrease of 11.94% in a three-month cycle.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of propylene oxide factory was low, and the manufacturers maintained a strong market mentality, but the downstream polyether market performed generally, the market trading rhythm slowed down, and the price operated stably under the supply-demand game, mainly waiting and sorting. With the improvement of downstream polyether orders, propylene oxide manufacturers were pressureless, the market transaction was active, and the price rose slightly. On Friday, the market digested and sorted out and operated stably, At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 16700-16800 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 12, the reference price of propylene was 7723.09, an increase of 0.95% compared with Monday’s price. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has been improved, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 12, the reference price of propylene glycol was 17066.67, which was the same as that on Monday; For the downstream soft foam polyether, on August 13, the market situation of soft foam polyether in Shandong was temporarily stable. The downstream purchasing mentality was cautious and the buying gas was light. At present, the mainstream quotation of ordinary soft foam polyether in Shandong is around 16700-17000 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that, in general, the price of raw propylene has increased slightly, the cost impact is limited, the manufacturers are still not under pressure, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is general. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may focus on wait-and-see consolidation, and more specific trends still need to pay attention to the market news guidance.

Aluminum fluoride market rose

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in August, and the aluminum fluoride Market warmed up in August. As of August 13, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from 8500 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month.

Aluminum ingot prices hit a new high

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on August 12 was 112.07, up 0.93 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 106.69% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of aluminum ingots has been rising continuously since June, and the price of aluminum ingots reached a new high in August. The aluminum ingot market continues to run strongly, stimulating the rise of aluminum fluoride price, which has a great driving force.

Hydrofluoric acid market recovered in August

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose continuously in August, and the hydrofluoric acid market recovered in August. The price of hydrofluoric acid rose, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and aluminum fluoride rose strongly in August.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the rise of aluminum fluoride market this week, the rise of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite prices in the upstream drive the rise of aluminum fluoride Market, the price of aluminum ingots in the downstream hit a new high, and the driving force of aluminum fluoride rise is increased. Generally speaking, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials rose, and the downstream aluminum ingot market continued to rise, stimulating the rise of aluminum fluoride price and the recovery of aluminum fluoride Market.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8250.00 yuan / ton on August 8 and 8283.33 yuan / ton on August 13, with an increase of 0.40% during the week and 0.40% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10575.00 yuan / ton on August 8 and 10712.50 yuan / ton on August 13, with an increase of 1.30% during the week and 1.06% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8900.00 yuan / ton on August 8 and 8866.67 yuan / ton on August 13. The decline rate during the week was 0.37%, down 2.92% compared with August 1.

In the second week of August, the three PE spot varieties mainly rose, and only HDPE decreased, but the range was not large. LLDPE and LDPE continued to rise, while HDPE continued to be weak. LDPE rose most prominently this week, with limited changes in LLDPE and HDPE. On the whole, the polyethylene market is still rising. This week, Sinopec adjusted the ex factory price, mainly rising, and the cost support was strengthened. Some have been reduced, and the range is controlled within 100 yuan / ton. Affected by the maintenance plan of Shenhua Yulin in the middle of the year, the market hype atmosphere is obvious, and the price rises. However, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices and is not active in entering the market. It maintains replenishment on demand. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market is general, and the negotiation mode is continued.

The upstream ethylene market, the ethylene market, and the recent external ethylene market showed a downward trend as a whole. The ethylene market price in Asia continued to decline. As of the 12th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 926-936 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 961-971 / T. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 12th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1368-1375 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1255-1263 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell sharply. As of the 12th, the price was $894-911 / ton. Recently, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. The recent decline of ethylene in the United States was large, and ethylene in Asia also fell by $20 / ton for two consecutive days. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene external market has been poor recently, the market trading atmosphere is cold, and the overall focus of the ethylene market has shifted downward.

The continuous rise of Liansu futures brought benefits to the spot. On August 13, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2109 was 8295, the highest price was 8380, the lowest price was 8270, the closing price was 8355, the former settlement price was 8275, the settlement price was 8325, up 80, or 0.97%, the trading volume was 250258, the position was 159329, and the daily position was increased by – 11721（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of supply, some manufacturers have overhauled the equipment, and the market supply has decreased. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream has increased, and the demand for agricultural film has improved, but the demand for pipes is weak. And the futures duration trend is strong, and the crude oil price is at a high level. Overall, the positive factors in the market are obvious, and the PE spot market is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of cryolite in Henan increased slightly this week. On August 13, the average market price in Henan was 6425 yuan / ton, an increase of 25 yuan / ton compared with the quotation of 6400 yuan / ton on August 7, an increase of 0.39% over the weekend.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s cryolite market was temporarily stable, the enterprise inventory was sufficient, and the quotation was the same as that of last week. The production capacity of individual enterprises was low, the raw materials were tight, and the cryolite quotation increased slightly. During the week, cryolite manufacturers in various regions adjusted their quotation according to their own production and marketing situation. As of the 13th, the factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 6300-6500 yuan / ton, and the price remained stable during the week; The ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6300-6600 yuan / ton, and the price is increased by 100 yuan / ton. Domestic cryolite enterprises operate normally in terms of devices, start work stably, enterprise inventory is OK, and the market supply is tight. At present, cryolite prices are high, mainly through actual transaction negotiation, and shipment is stable.

In terms of electrolytic aluminum, the price trend first fell and then rose this week, with an overall increase of 0.65% in the week. At present, the aluminum industry is in the off-season, with less demand, but the social inventory is low, which supports the aluminum price, and the market game forms a stable shock range. The price fluctuation is small in the short term, and the aluminum market trend fluctuates slightly in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the cryolite manufacturer’s devices operate normally, the enterprise’s quotation is mainly high, the downstream demand is stable, the enterprise’s shipment is stable, the manufacturer’s mentality continues to wait and see, the short-term cryolite price is strong, and the enterprise has no intention to adjust the price. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate stably in the later stage, and pay attention to the downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rebounded this week. The market price was 7650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7750 yuan / ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.31%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, propylene prices rebounded slightly, the mainstream price in Shandong market was 7700-7750 yuan / ton, the low-end price increased, and the high-end price remained stable. The international crude oil rebounded, the cost was boosted, the propylene price rose slightly, the delivery of goods in the yard was stable, some factories were shut down for maintenance, and the supply was reduced.

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly this week. The data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories fell last week, the improvement of U.S. employment data and improved liquidity boosted fuel consumption, and the Biden government said it would not support U.S. oil companies to increase production and supply is expected to be good for oil prices. However, against the background of the accelerated spread of delta virus, The recovery of global oil demand is still dragged down by it, and there are many upward obstacles to oil prices. During the week, it increased by 1.09%.

Polypropylene prices rose slightly this week, the demand level of downstream enterprises is still not high, and the operation of hoarding goods in advance for the traditional peak season in September has not been heard. The supply of high-priced goods in the venue was under pressure, and businesses preferred to sell goods at a profit, with an increase of 1.8% during the week.

The consolidation of acrylic acid remained stable this week, the industry inventory remained low, the tight supply situation was alleviated, and the price was firm.

The reported price of isopropanol fell this week, and the market lacked real single support. After the price rise last week, there was a price correction at the beginning of this week, with a decrease of 2.4% during the week.

The price of isooctanol fell this week. Due to the continuous commencement of units, the overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry increased, the downstream market was general, and the demand weakened, with a decrease of 2.23% during the week.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that under the condition of insufficient power for the rise of oil price, cost constraints and basically stable supply and demand, it is expected that the future rise space of propylene is limited.

At present, the downstream manufacturers just need to purchase, the main manufacturers have repeatedly reduced the ex factory quotation and bidding reserve price, and the domestic butadiene market is descending. According to the sample data monitored by business society, from August 5 to 12, the domestic butadiene market price fell from 11091 yuan / ton to 10835 yuan / ton, with a price decrease of 2.30%, a month on month increase of 13.15% and a year-on-year increase of 130.22%. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong is 11200-11300 yuan / ton, and the self delivery offer in East China is 11100-11200 yuan / ton.

With the launch of new production capacity and the planned restart of some units, the supply side of the domestic butadiene market has been widened to a certain extent. Some northeast enterprises have recently resumed competitive sales, and the social supply of goods has increased significantly. In addition, the start-up of synthetic rubber industry has decreased and the cost side is under pressure, which affects the supply and demand fundamentals of butadiene and is difficult to find a significant positive boost. However, the recent strong upward performance of the external market may support the downward space of the butadiene market.

In terms of enterprises, Fushun Petrochemical’s 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit operates normally, 510 tons of goods are exported through competitive bidding, and the base price of the bidding is 10600 yuan / ton. The 140000 T / a butadiene unit of Dalian Hengli Petrochemical operates stably, the source of goods is normal for export, and the price is reduced by 200 yuan / ton to 10710 yuan / ton.

In terms of external market: as of August 11, the external market price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at USD 1625-1635 / ton; CFR China closed at US $1555-1565 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $2045-2055 / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at € 1595-1605 / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Korea USD 1625-1635 / ton USD 0 / ton

Asia CFR China USD 1555-1565 / T USD 0 / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam USD 2045-2055 / T USD 0 / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1595-1605 euros / ton 0 euro / ton

International crude oil prices fell significantly, affecting the atmosphere of the whole chemical industry. However, with the impact of the slow improvement of the external market, the decline of the domestic butadiene market is expected to slow down. Business analysts expect the market to be mainly sorted out.

Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 2820.00 yuan / ton, an increase of 63.01% over the same period last year. Overall, the urea market was temporarily stable this week, and the urea commodity index was 131.16 on August 6.

The cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of urea in Shandong this week is temporarily stable. Yangmei plain urea has not been quoted this week; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2820 yuan / ton this weekend, which is temporarily stable compared with that at the beginning of the week; Open water chemical urea has not been quoted this week.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea overall fell slightly this week: the price of liquefied natural gas fell slightly, and the quotation fell from 5476.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 5200.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, a decrease of 5.05%, a year-on-year increase of 111.10% compared with the same period last year; The price of thermal coal was temporarily stable, with a quotation of 1095.00 yuan / ton, a year-on-year increase of 93.12% over the same period last year. The price of liquid ammonia fell slightly. The quotation fell from 4883.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4800.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.17%, up 60.89% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. The price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable this week, with a price of 13333.33 yuan / ton.

From the aspect of demand: the agricultural demand is general, and the industrial demand is normal; The operation of downstream compound fertilizer and rubber plate plants is not high, and the operating load rate of melamine enterprises remains high. Most of them are used with mining and followed up with a proper amount of bargain hunting. In terms of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, and the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated. The daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 138000 tons, with a significant reduction in daily output. In terms of transportation: affected by the epidemic situation in some areas, logistics and transportation are limited. On the whole, the urea cost support is weakened, the downstream demand is weakened, the urea supply is tight, and the logistics transportation is limited.

The future price of urea is bearish

In the middle of August, the urea market in Shandong Province may fluctuate slightly. Urea analysts of business society believe that although the maintenance of urea plant is still tight and the supply is tight, at present, the agricultural demand everywhere is declining, the industrial demand is general, the downstream merchants have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for high-priced urea, and the future market price may fluctuate or fall slightly.