1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, on October 28, the average p value of oil-based ethylene glycol was 5970 yuan / ton, down 690 yuan / ton compared with the previous statistical cycle.

On October 27, the spot price in East China market was flat, with an average price of 6080 yuan / ton, down 220 yuan / ton from the beginning of this month, a decrease of 3.49%.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In terms of inventory, as of October 25, the total inventory of ethylene glycol in the main ports of East China was 596400 tons, an increase of 81400 tons, an increase of 15.81%, and 31400 tons, an increase of 5.56%, compared with last Thursday. Ethylene glycol continues to be in low inventory.

Unit: a 400000 ton syngas MEG unit in Inner Mongolia has restarted a line, which was previously shut down for maintenance near August 12; A 40000 ton MEG unit in Jiangsu has been shut down and is expected to be shut down for 8 days..

The ethylene glycol market rose first and then fell following the trend of coal this month, and one of the important reasons is that the policy guides the market direction. In the early stage, the shortage of coal resources, coupled with the fluctuation of market mentality caused by “double control”, the coal price rose, and the ethylene glycol price rose with the trend, gradually divorced from the fundamentals. In the later stage, since the coal price was suppressed, the price of ethylene glycol plunged, and the price gradually returned to rationality. In terms of fundamentals, the operating rate of ethylene glycol continues to fluctuate at a low level. Although the port inventory is still low, it rises slightly and is expected to increase further in early November. The unloading situation at East China port improved slightly, and some goods from South China Re flowed to East China market. As the profit margin of ethylene glycol shrinks, it is imperative to convert part of the cogeneration unit to ethylene oxide. At present, the demand side is still weak as a whole, but the production restriction tends to be relaxed. Some polyester units are restarted, and the supply and demand structure will be roughly balanced.

3、 Forecast: weak shock operation.