1、 Price trend
The overall trend of caustic soda prices has been consolidating this month. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 637 yuan/ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 635 yuan/ton, a decrease of 0.31% and a year-on-year decrease of 23.65%. On September 29th, the Business Society Chlor Alkali Index was 739 points, up 5 points from yesterday, down 65.27% from the highest point of 2128 points during the cycle (2021-10-24), and up 4.53% from the lowest point of 707 points on February 27th, 2026. (Note: The cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to present)
2、 Market analysis
The overall price of caustic soda has been consolidating this month. The price of caustic soda in Shandong region is around 580-670 yuan/ton in the mainstream market of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali. The price of caustic soda in Zhejiang region is stable, and the price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali delivered to Xiaoshan mainstream market is around 840-860 yuan/ton. The price of caustic soda in Inner Mongolia region is stable, and the mainstream market price of 32% ion-exchange membrane alkali is around 1850-1950 yuan/ton (converted to 100 yuan). The regional market trend of domestic liquid alkali is not volatile, and it is operating steadily in multiple dimensions.
In October, domestic chlor alkali maintenance and restart coexisted, and the estimated monthly average load had limited month on month changes. The industry supply continued to decline year-on-year. At the end of the month, the orders of the enterprise were basically signed, and there was a tentative upward trend in the market, but there was a lack of strong demand support, and the overall market maintained a narrow consolidation operation. Some aluminum plants in downstream industries are replenishing their inventory appropriately based on their own inventory levels, while aluminum oxide plants have low enthusiasm for participating in spot trading, although their pre holiday stocking quotes are relatively cautious. The downstream demand for non aluminum continues to be sluggish, with more on-demand procurement and no improvement, putting pressure on the market.
Analysts believe that in recent times, the price of caustic soda has been consolidating, downstream alumina receiving is average, the long short game has intensified, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere continues to heat up. The price of alumina remains weak, and the market is still in a stalemate. The estimated increment of the market is limited, and the comprehensive supply-demand game predicts that caustic soda may tend to consolidate, depending on downstream market demand.