Entering this week, with the rebound of international crude oil, the propane Market followed the rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 4900.75 yuan / ton on August 22 and 5025.75 yuan / ton on August 25. The three-day increase was 2.55%, an increase of 5.84% compared with August 1.

As of August 25, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

region Specifications August 25th

East China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4700-4950 yuan / ton

North China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4850-5200 yuan / ton

Shandong region Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4850-5170 yuan / ton

South China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4830-4930 yuan / ton

Central China Propane,% (V / V) not less than 95 4950-5230 yuan / ton

In this week, there were obvious positive factors in the market, the domestic propane market rose sharply, and the increase in Shandong was obvious. The international crude oil price has risen sharply in a row, which has significantly boosted the market. The transaction atmosphere in Shandong is OK, coupled with the high support of the port, the price has increased for three consecutive days, and most of the ex factory prices have risen back above 5000 yuan / ton. However, due to the influence of seasonal factors, the off-season has not passed, and the overall terminal demand is weak, which has brought some restraint to the rising market.

In the international crude oil market, on August 24, the international oil price continued to rise, with a strong increase. The settlement price of the main contract in the US WTI crude oil futures market was US $67.54/barrel, up US $1.90 or 2.90%, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was US $71.05/barrel, up US $2.30 or 3.40%. On the news side, a fire on an oil platform in Mexico led to the interruption of large-scale production. In addition, according to the data of the American Petroleum Association (API), the inventory of crude oil and refined oil in the United States decreased last week. After superimposing the peak of the epidemic in China, demand continued to recover, boosting market confidence.

Saudi Aramco announced in August that both propylene and butane rose. Propane was 660 USD / T, up 40 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 655 USD / T, up 35 USD / T compared with the previous month.

The continuous sharp rise of international crude oil has significantly boosted the market, and the domestic propane markets in the South and North have increased to varying degrees. However, due to the off-season, the terminal demand has not increased significantly. With the rising price, the resistance in the downstream has increased, the mentality is cautious, and the market transaction atmosphere is weaker than that at the beginning of the week. It is expected that the propane market will increase steadily in the short term, and it is unlikely to rise sharply. Specifically, we still need to pay attention to the trend of international crude oil.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 13 to 20, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 10220 yuan / ton to 10560 yuan / ton, an increase of 3.33% in the week, a month on month increase of 0.38% and a year-on-year increase of 86.35%.

The price of raw material pure benzene fell, but the supply was tight. BOC Shandong did not start up yet. The supply of goods in the overall factory was in short supply and sold at a low price. The domestic cyclohexanone market rose narrowly.

Comparison chart of price trend of pure benzene (upstream raw material) and cyclohexanone in business society:

Summary of domestic cyclohexanone market as of August 20:

region ., Price

East China 10600-10700 yuan / ton cash delivery

South China 10900-11100 yuan / ton cash delivery

Shandong region 10400-10500 yuan / ton cash delivery

In terms of raw materials, pure benzene, crude oil and styrene continued to decline, resulting in a good transaction of pure benzene, but the price is difficult to rise under pressure. Downstream, caprolactam and caprolactam fluctuated horizontally, but the enthusiasm for outsourcing was not good, the market procurement was cautious, the solvent took the goods on demand, and the focus of real order transaction was higher.

The commodity supply of cyclohexanone market is expected to increase, and the load of downstream caprolactam unit is expected to increase. Cyclohexanone analysts of business society expect that the short-term cyclohexanone market may be adjusted in a narrow range.

This week (August 16-20), the high level of domestic liquid ammonia market fell, and the market price generally corrected. After the correction at the beginning of the month, the liquid ammonia stopped falling and stabilized in the middle of the month. However, since the middle of the month, the market supply and demand pressure has gradually increased, and the liquid ammonia went down again. According to the monitoring of business society, the weekly decline of liquid ammonia in Shandong Province was 1.75%. This week, the domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers mainly reduced the overall price. With the resumption of some maintenance devices, the market supply increased. Due to the impact of the epidemic in China, the road transportation was limited to a certain extent, and the manufacturer’s shipment speed slowed down. The liquid ammonia changed from the original shortage of supply to excess supply. The manufacturer was forced to reduce the price and ship under the pressure of inventory, and the market continued to fall.

This week, the market situation of liquid ammonia in Shandong continued to decline. Hualu unit in this area is still in the maintenance period and has no export. Most manufacturers’ units are normal, and the supply of goods in the region is sufficient. Large manufacturers generally reduce the ex factory price by 100-200 yuan / ton. Affected by the epidemic, the traffic has been affected to some extent, the shipment speed of most manufacturers has slowed down, and the inventory has increased significantly compared with the previous period. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream price in the region is 4450-4600 yuan / ton.

The liquid ammonia Market in Hebei also decreased to varying degrees, and the market performance was weak. Hebei is also subject to certain traffic restrictions. The manufacturers’ shipment speed slows down and gradually accumulates the warehouse. In addition, the early maintenance devices of large factories in Hebei have resumed production one after another, and the supply of goods has gradually increased. At present, the amount of ammonia in this area remains relatively high. The manufacturers reduce the price and ship goods, and discharge the warehouse to reduce the pressure. At the weekend, the mainstream price in the region is 4400-4600 yuan / ton. Downstream generally rational procurement, demand is difficult to be large-scale.

In the future, at present, the price adjustment of domestic liquid ammonia manufacturers has not stopped, the inventory pressure of manufacturers is generally high, and the market supply pressure tends to increase. Although the short-term risk in transportation has not been relieved, the domestic epidemic peak has passed, the restrictive measures have been lifted one after another, and the fertilizer consumption in autumn ushers in the peak season, and the market procurement will gradually increase, The increase in demand may stabilize the price of ammonia.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride rose this week. As of August 22, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 11733.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.33% over the average price of 11466.67 yuan / ton on August 16, and an increase of 4.30% over the same period last month.

On August 22, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 110.53, the same as yesterday, down 10.63% from the highest point of 123.67 in the cycle (December 26, 2017), and up 115.96% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020（ Note: period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

This week, the construction of domestic benzene maleic anhydride market was basically stable, and the construction in Shanxi was started at the end of August. International crude oil fell sharply and domestic chemical prices fell slightly; The operating rate of unsaturated resin in the downstream is basically stable. The resin market is dominated by weak consolidation and just need procurement. As of the 22nd, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 11800 yuan / ton, the liquid anhydride in Jiangsu was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Shanxi was about 11500 yuan / ton, the solid anhydride in Hebei was about 11500 yuan / ton, and the solid anhydride in South China was about 11800 yuan / ton.

Upstream, the price of pure benzene fell continuously this week. On August 15, the average price of pure benzene was 7540 yuan / ton, and on August 22, the average price of pure benzene was 7480 yuan / ton, down 60 yuan / ton, or 0.8%. This week, the market price of hydrogenated benzene in Shandong was slightly corrected, which was 7375 yuan / ton last weekend, 7425 yuan / ton this weekend, and increased by 50 yuan / ton this week. The price of n-butane rose, and the price in Shandong was 5060 yuan / ton.

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, according to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 33rd week of 2021 (8.16-8.20), there are 46 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 3 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 3.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were acetone (12.28%), isopropanol (11.76%) and silicone DMC (6.83%). A total of 23 commodities decreased month on month, and the top three products were dimethyl carbonate (- 4.75%), styrene (- 2.95%) and 1,4-butanediol (- 2.60%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.79%.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market is tight, some factories are pre sold to September, and the downstream resin market just needs to be purchased. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may fluctuate at a high level in the near future.

According to the statistics of business agency, the domestic nylon market was running smoothly this week (August 16-20). As of August 20, Jiangsu nylon filament DTY (excellent product); 70D / 24F) quotation: 20220 yuan / ton; Nylon POY (superior product); 86d / 24F) offer 17775 yuan / ton; The price of nylon FDY (superior product: 40d / 12F) is reported at 20800 yuan / ton, which is the same as that of last week.

Nylon price chart

From the perspective of price trend, since August, the quotation of nylon manufacturers has been more stable and wait-and-see. The market trend of nylon industrial chain is weak, the supply of manufacturers is stable, but there is still resistance to shipment, it is difficult to clinch a deal at a high price on the site, the demand of downstream terminal market is flat, the production and sales of the overall market are sluggish, and the wait-and-see atmosphere on the site is strong.

Upstream raw material market analysis

Nylon upstream raw material cyclohexanone market consolidation. According to the monitoring data of business agency, from August 9 to 20, the average market price of cyclohexanone in China rose from 10220 yuan / ton to 10240 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.20%, which was basically stable.

PA6 price chart

The domestic market of upstream raw material PA6 operated smoothly this week, and the spot price was stable. As of August 19, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15366.67 yuan / ton, which was flat compared with the average price at the beginning of the month. Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 42.72%. In early August, although the upstream support for the cost side of PA6 weakened, the price of caprolactam was high and the cost pressure of PA6 was high. At the same time, the domestic slice inventory increased at the end of last month. End users follow up slowly and have a strong wait-and-see mentality. The atmosphere on the floor is weak and the long and short are tangled. It is expected that the spot price of PA6 may be deadlocked in the short term.

Cyclohexanone price chart

Downstream market demand

Since August, the price trend of nylon has basically remained stable, and the stalemate operation is the main. The nylon filament manufacturer’s installation started fairly well, and the spot supply on the site remained sufficient. Although the manufacturer actively shipped, the customers in the downstream terminal field were not very popular. As the customers’ intention to take goods weakened after the price rose, they followed up more on demand, and the overall market just needed to buy was also weak; The market price of nylon cord fabric is strong and high. Although the high viscosity chips in the upstream remain stable, the cost side support is OK. The supply of manufacturers is tight in the early stage, and the supply gradually stabilizes in the near future. The downstream terminal nylon manufacturers just need to follow up. Some manufacturers start low, mainly de stocking, and the overall market remains high; The transaction of nylon staple fiber market is relatively flexible. The upstream conventional spinning chips are adjusted in a narrow range, the cost side does not play a strong role in supporting the staple fiber, the spot supply in the field remains stable, the demand in the downstream core spun yarn field is OK, but the proportion is small, the demand in other fields is general, and the actual transaction in the field has little room for negotiation, and all parties have a strong wait-and-see atmosphere for the future market.

Future forecast

In August, the nylon market trend was stable and weak, the cost side support was stable, the on-site supply remained stable, and the nylon terminal demand had not been significantly improved. Most downstream enterprises remained normal, just needed to take goods, the order support was limited, the enthusiasm for taking goods was not high, the actual trading atmosphere on the site was flat, and the manufacturers had a strong willingness to support prices, but the market mentality was mainly bearish. Business analysts expect nylon spot prices to be stable in the short term.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of August 13, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 17025 yuan / ton, an increase of 0.15% compared with Monday’s price, an increase of 5.31% compared with July 13 (the reference price of propylene oxide was 16166.67 yuan / ton), and a year-on-year decrease of 11.94% in a three-month cycle.

The propylene oxide market rose slightly this week. At the beginning of the week, the inventory of propylene oxide factory was low, and the manufacturers maintained a strong market mentality, but the downstream polyether market performed generally, the market trading rhythm slowed down, and the price operated stably under the supply-demand game, mainly waiting and sorting. With the improvement of downstream polyether orders, propylene oxide manufacturers were pressureless, the market transaction was active, and the price rose slightly. On Friday, the market digested and sorted out and operated stably, At present, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong is around 16700-16800 yuan / ton.

Upstream propylene, according to the bulk list data of business society, as of August 12, the reference price of propylene was 7723.09, an increase of 0.95% compared with Monday’s price. Downstream procurement enthusiasm has been improved, and the market trading atmosphere is acceptable.

Downstream propylene glycol, according to the monitoring data of business society, as of August 12, the reference price of propylene glycol was 17066.67, which was the same as that on Monday; For the downstream soft foam polyether, on August 13, the market situation of soft foam polyether in Shandong was temporarily stable. The downstream purchasing mentality was cautious and the buying gas was light. At present, the mainstream quotation of ordinary soft foam polyether in Shandong is around 16700-17000 yuan / ton.

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that, in general, the price of raw propylene has increased slightly, the cost impact is limited, the manufacturers are still not under pressure, and the downstream purchasing sentiment is general. It is expected that in the short term, the propylene oxide market may focus on wait-and-see consolidation, and more specific trends still need to pay attention to the market news guidance.

Aluminum fluoride market rose

According to the data of business agency, the price of aluminum fluoride rose sharply in August, and the aluminum fluoride Market warmed up in August. As of August 13, the domestic price of aluminum fluoride was 8666.67 yuan / ton, up 1.96% from 8500 yuan / ton on August 1 at the beginning of the month.

Aluminum ingot prices hit a new high

According to the monitoring of business society, the aluminum commodity index on August 12 was 112.07, up 0.93 points from yesterday, a record high in the cycle, up 106.69% from the lowest point of 54.22 on November 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now). The price of aluminum ingots has been rising continuously since June, and the price of aluminum ingots reached a new high in August. The aluminum ingot market continues to run strongly, stimulating the rise of aluminum fluoride price, which has a great driving force.

Hydrofluoric acid market recovered in August

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of hydrofluoric acid rose continuously in August, and the hydrofluoric acid market recovered in August. The price of hydrofluoric acid rose, the cost of aluminum fluoride rose, and aluminum fluoride rose strongly in August.

Market overview and forecast

Analysts of aluminum fluoride industry of business agency believe that the rise of aluminum fluoride market this week, the rise of hydrofluoric acid and fluorite prices in the upstream drive the rise of aluminum fluoride Market, the price of aluminum ingots in the downstream hit a new high, and the driving force of aluminum fluoride rise is increased. Generally speaking, the cost of aluminum fluoride raw materials rose, and the downstream aluminum ingot market continued to rise, stimulating the rise of aluminum fluoride price and the recovery of aluminum fluoride Market.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, the average ex factory price of LLDPE (7042) in East China was 8250.00 yuan / ton on August 8 and 8283.33 yuan / ton on August 13, with an increase of 0.40% during the week and 0.40% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of LDPE (2426h) in East China was 10575.00 yuan / ton on August 8 and 10712.50 yuan / ton on August 13, with an increase of 1.30% during the week and 1.06% compared with August 1.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average ex factory price of HDPE (5000S) in East China was 8900.00 yuan / ton on August 8 and 8866.67 yuan / ton on August 13. The decline rate during the week was 0.37%, down 2.92% compared with August 1.

In the second week of August, the three PE spot varieties mainly rose, and only HDPE decreased, but the range was not large. LLDPE and LDPE continued to rise, while HDPE continued to be weak. LDPE rose most prominently this week, with limited changes in LLDPE and HDPE. On the whole, the polyethylene market is still rising. This week, Sinopec adjusted the ex factory price, mainly rising, and the cost support was strengthened. Some have been reduced, and the range is controlled within 100 yuan / ton. Affected by the maintenance plan of Shenhua Yulin in the middle of the year, the market hype atmosphere is obvious, and the price rises. However, the downstream has limited ability to accept high prices and is not active in entering the market. It maintains replenishment on demand. The overall transaction atmosphere of the market is general, and the negotiation mode is continued.

The upstream ethylene market, the ethylene market, and the recent external ethylene market showed a downward trend as a whole. The ethylene market price in Asia continued to decline. As of the 12th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at USD 926-936 / T and CFR Southeast Asia closed at USD 961-971 / T. European ethylene market prices fluctuated and consolidated. As of the 12th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1368-1375 / T and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1255-1263 / T. The price of ethylene in the United States fell sharply. As of the 12th, the price was $894-911 / ton. Recently, the overall external ethylene market showed a downward trend. The recent decline of ethylene in the United States was large, and ethylene in Asia also fell by $20 / ton for two consecutive days. Generally speaking, the demand of the whole ethylene external market has been poor recently, the market trading atmosphere is cold, and the overall focus of the ethylene market has shifted downward.

The continuous rise of Liansu futures brought benefits to the spot. On August 13, the opening price of polyethylene futures 2109 was 8295, the highest price was 8380, the lowest price was 8270, the closing price was 8355, the former settlement price was 8275, the settlement price was 8325, up 80, or 0.97%, the trading volume was 250258, the position was 159329, and the daily position was increased by – 11721（ Quotation unit: yuan / ton)

In terms of supply, some manufacturers have overhauled the equipment, and the market supply has decreased. In terms of demand, the overall operating rate of the downstream has increased, and the demand for agricultural film has improved, but the demand for pipes is weak. And the futures duration trend is strong, and the crude oil price is at a high level. Overall, the positive factors in the market are obvious, and the PE spot market is expected to continue to rise in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price of cryolite in Henan increased slightly this week. On August 13, the average market price in Henan was 6425 yuan / ton, an increase of 25 yuan / ton compared with the quotation of 6400 yuan / ton on August 7, an increase of 0.39% over the weekend.

2、 Market analysis

This week’s cryolite market was temporarily stable, the enterprise inventory was sufficient, and the quotation was the same as that of last week. The production capacity of individual enterprises was low, the raw materials were tight, and the cryolite quotation increased slightly. During the week, cryolite manufacturers in various regions adjusted their quotation according to their own production and marketing situation. As of the 13th, the factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 6300-6500 yuan / ton, and the price remained stable during the week; The ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan is 6300-6600 yuan / ton, and the price is increased by 100 yuan / ton. Domestic cryolite enterprises operate normally in terms of devices, start work stably, enterprise inventory is OK, and the market supply is tight. At present, cryolite prices are high, mainly through actual transaction negotiation, and shipment is stable.

In terms of electrolytic aluminum, the price trend first fell and then rose this week, with an overall increase of 0.65% in the week. At present, the aluminum industry is in the off-season, with less demand, but the social inventory is low, which supports the aluminum price, and the market game forms a stable shock range. The price fluctuation is small in the short term, and the aluminum market trend fluctuates slightly in the later stage.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the cryolite manufacturer’s devices operate normally, the enterprise’s quotation is mainly high, the downstream demand is stable, the enterprise’s shipment is stable, the manufacturer’s mentality continues to wait and see, the short-term cryolite price is strong, and the enterprise has no intention to adjust the price. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate stably in the later stage, and pay attention to the downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic propylene (Shandong) market price rebounded this week. The market price was 7650 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 7750 yuan / ton at the weekend, an increase of 1.31%.

2、 Analysis and review

According to the price chart of business society, propylene prices rebounded slightly, the mainstream price in Shandong market was 7700-7750 yuan / ton, the low-end price increased, and the high-end price remained stable. The international crude oil rebounded, the cost was boosted, the propylene price rose slightly, the delivery of goods in the yard was stable, some factories were shut down for maintenance, and the supply was reduced.

Crude oil prices rebounded slightly this week. The data released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) on Wednesday showed that crude oil inventories fell last week, the improvement of U.S. employment data and improved liquidity boosted fuel consumption, and the Biden government said it would not support U.S. oil companies to increase production and supply is expected to be good for oil prices. However, against the background of the accelerated spread of delta virus, The recovery of global oil demand is still dragged down by it, and there are many upward obstacles to oil prices. During the week, it increased by 1.09%.

Polypropylene prices rose slightly this week, the demand level of downstream enterprises is still not high, and the operation of hoarding goods in advance for the traditional peak season in September has not been heard. The supply of high-priced goods in the venue was under pressure, and businesses preferred to sell goods at a profit, with an increase of 1.8% during the week.

The consolidation of acrylic acid remained stable this week, the industry inventory remained low, the tight supply situation was alleviated, and the price was firm.

The reported price of isopropanol fell this week, and the market lacked real single support. After the price rise last week, there was a price correction at the beginning of this week, with a decrease of 2.4% during the week.

The price of isooctanol fell this week. Due to the continuous commencement of units, the overall operating rate of the isooctanol industry increased, the downstream market was general, and the demand weakened, with a decrease of 2.23% during the week.

3、 Future forecast

Propylene analysts of the chemical branch of the business society believe that under the condition of insufficient power for the rise of oil price, cost constraints and basically stable supply and demand, it is expected that the future rise space of propylene is limited.