1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, toluene rose first and then fell this week. On August 1, the price of toluene was 5810 yuan / ton; On Sunday (August 8), the price was 5820 yuan / ton, an increase of 10 yuan / ton or 0.17% over last week; Compared with the same period last year, it increased by 72.19%.

2、 Analysis and review

Crude oil fell sharply during the week, and the cost support weakened; Downstream demand continued to be weak and market negotiations were light. In the early stage, driven by the reduction of supply in South China, the price rose. With the arrival of ships, the supply increased and the focus fell back. Affected by the epidemic in East China, enterprise shipments were blocked and prices fluctuated in a narrow range.

In terms of external market, as of August 6, the price of toluene imported from South Korea was US $763 / ton, down US $2 / ton, or 0.26%, compared with July 30.

In terms of crude oil, in terms of crude oil, the spread of delta mutant virus has suppressed the atmosphere of the crude oil market, OPEC + has gradually increased production since August, and negative factors such as the increase of U.S. crude oil inventory have suppressed, resulting in a sharp decline in international oil prices this week. On July 30, Brent fell $5.63 / barrel, or 7.38%; WTI fell US $5.67/barrel, or 7.67%.

Downstream: in terms of TDI, the price of TDI in East China fell this week. The price of domestic goods was 14750 yuan / ton, down 2.75% from last week and up 22.92% from the same period last year. The domestic TDI market was organized and operated, the atmosphere in the venue was cold, the downstream market entry was weak, the market entry enthusiasm was not high, and there were a few orders in the market.

In the PX market, the domestic PX price rose this week, at 7300 yuan / ton, an increase of 2.82% over last week and 58.7% over the same period last year. As of August 6, the closing prices in Asia were USD 938-940 / T FOB Korea and USD 956-958 / T CFR China.

3、 Future forecast

Toluene analysts from the chemical branch of business society believe that: at the supply cost side, the implementation of OPEC + production reduction, the total number of U.S. oil drilling platforms and weekly EIA and API inventory data. Second, on the demand side, the impact of the global epidemic on crude oil demand, the recovery of the industrial chain, the economic and trade situation in Europe and the United States and the progress related to the fiscal stimulus plan. Third, look at the geopolitical situation in the Middle East, China and the United States, the progress of the new crown vaccine, the US dollar index and stock market linkage.

There is uncertainty in the cost side and there is a little support for toluene; The downstream demand is weak, and the toluene market is difficult to improve in the short term. Overall, toluene is expected to fluctuate in a narrow range next week. Continue to pay attention to the trend of crude oil and external market, maintenance dynamics of toluene unit, toluene inventory information and the impact of downstream demand on toluene price.

Domestic price trend:

As can be seen from the p-xylene trend chart, the market price of p-xylene increased slightly this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of p-xylene was 7300 yuan / ton, up 0.34% from the price of 7275 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 58.7% year-on-year. The price trend of domestic PX market increased slightly this week.

Recently, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, the 600000 ton unit of Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Pengzhou Petrochemical operates stably, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the unit of Jinling Petrochemical operates stably, the unit of Qingdao Lidong operates at full load, and the unit of Qilu Petrochemical operates stably, The start-up of Urumqi petrochemical plant is about 50%, and the domestic p-xylene supply is general, but some overseas plants are still under maintenance, and the domestic p-xylene price is slightly affected. Recently, the closing price of international crude oil has dropped somewhat, and the trend of PX external price has decreased slightly. As of the 5th, the closing prices in Asia were USD 918-920 / T FOB Korea and USD 936-938 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX unit in Asia has changed little. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene unit in Asia is more than 60%, and the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, The closing price of PX fell slightly, and the price trend of domestic p-xylene market rose slightly.

This week, the crude oil price declined sharply. The settlement price of the main contract in the WTI crude oil futures market in the United States was reported to be USD 69.09/barrel, and the settlement price of the main contract in the Brent crude oil futures market was reported to be USD 71.29/barrel. Recently, the crude oil price declined, and the economic data recently released by major economies are not ideal, What is more important is that the market is further worried about the slowdown in demand caused by delta virus and the oversupply caused by the increase in production of oil producing countries. Crude oil prices fell sharply this week, which was bad for the price of domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of p-xylene rose slightly.

The price trend of downstream PTA market fell this week. As of June 6, the average price of PTA market was 5250-5350 yuan / ton, down 4.77% this week. International crude oil prices fell sharply, and the cost lost some support. Recently, the operating rate of PTA unit has declined, and the supply side has performed normally. This week, the operating rate of PTA is about 70%, the delivery of PTA is general, and the on-site delivery is weak. Crude oil prices fell this week, affected by lower costs. Polyester production and sales have not changed much, and the international epidemic has been controlled to a certain extent, but the follow-up orders in the textile industry are weak. The profits of the domestic textile industry are concentrated in the spinning link. The downstream acceptance of fabric price rise is not high, and the price transmission is not smooth. There is still downward pressure on the yarn price, which may further affect the price performance of the raw material end. Recently, the domestic PTA market price has been affected by crude oil, the price has dropped, the downstream market is general, and the market price trend of p-xylene is mainly stable.

Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that the current cost performance is weak, the pressure of sharp rise in short-term crude oil price is large, and the trend of downstream PTA and textile market has dropped. It is expected that the market price of p-xylene may remain stable in the later stage.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of business agency: on August 3, the average price of domestic LNG was 5076.67 yuan / ton, down 7.3% from the previous day, up 35.38% month on month, up 106.09% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

In early August, the domestic LNG price continued to rise. On August 3, the continuous rise mode was interrupted, and the one-day price decline was 7.3%. Many places such as Inner Mongolia, Shaanxi, Shanxi and Ningxia reduced the price. Some liquid plants adjusted the price twice, and the price quickly fell back below 5000 yuan / ton. The market was green in a large area, while the imported gas fluctuated little, and continued to rise slightly. At present, it is still in the off-season, and the domestic liquid price has more than doubled year-on-year. It is difficult to follow up the downstream demand, and the market trading atmosphere has gradually weakened. There is a certain pressure on the sales of the liquid plant, so the price reduction and shipment are looking for good. In the first ten days of August, the feed gas price rose, and there was still support on the cost side, so the downward space of liquid price was limited. At present, 4980-5650 yuan / ton in Inner Mongolia, 4840-5200 yuan / ton in Shaanxi, 4920-5500 yuan / ton in Shanxi, 5100-5120 yuan / ton in Ningxia, 5000-5550 yuan / ton in Henan and 5750-5800 yuan / ton in Shandong. The inlet gas price is about 4400-5900 yuan / ton. The domestic liquid price is down and the inlet gas price continues to rise.

region Specifications August 3rd August 2nd Rise and fall

Inner Mongolia liquified natural gas 4980-5650 5350-5650 – 370/0

Shaanxi liquified natural gas 4840-5200 5240-5530 – 400/-130

Shanxi liquified natural gas 4920-5500 5250-5530 – 330/-30

Ningxia liquified natural gas 5100-5120 5510-5580 – 410/-460

Henan liquified natural gas 5000-5550 5300-5550 – 300/0

Shandong liquified natural gas 5750-5800 5900-6000 – 120/-200

Recently, the LNG market continued to rise, driving the overall upward trend of downstream products.

Methanol, the methanol market in central Shandong negotiated to 2450-2460 yuan / ton and sent to spot exchange. Most of them wait and see, and the transportation is slightly limited. The reference price of methanol market in central and Northern Shandong is 2450 yuan / ton, which will be sent to spot exchange. The negotiated price of methanol market in southern Shandong fell from 30 yuan / ton to 2500 yuan / ton, and cash exchange was withdrawn from nearby plants. Linyi received the local goods to negotiate the price to 2490-2500 yuan / ton and sent it to spot exchange. The quoted price of logistics goods is not available at present. Downstream wait-and-see, trading in general.

Dichloromethane, the dichloromethane market rose slightly in July. According to the bulk data monitoring of business society, the price of dichloromethane was 3796 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3946 yuan / ton at the end of the month. The overall month end rose by 3.95% compared with the beginning of the month. Analysts of methane chloride data of business society believe that although the domestic dichloromethane market supply is stable, the downstream just need support is also relatively stable. It is expected that the price of dichloromethane will fluctuate in a narrow range in the later stage.

On August 3, the urea market in Shandong was temporarily stable. The prices of upstream coal and liquefied natural gas have increased slightly recently, and the cost support has been strengthened. In terms of demand, there is a small amount of topdressing in North and East China, and the agricultural demand is general; The downstream compound fertilizer, rubber plate plant and melamine enterprises started fairly well, mostly with mining and use, and mainly followed up with an appropriate amount of bargain hunting. From the perspective of supply, urea has entered the off-season of agricultural demand, the parking and maintenance plants are relatively concentrated, and the daily output of domestic urea has decreased to about 140000 tons. On the whole, the urea cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is weakened, and the urea supply is tight.

3、 Future forecast

The LNG analyst of business agency believes that: at present, it is difficult to follow up the downstream demand, the market trading atmosphere has gradually weakened, there is a certain pressure on the sales of liquid plants, and the price reduction and shipment are looking for good. It is expected that there are still downward expectations in the domestic LNG market in the short term, but the feed gas price rose in early August, and the cost side supports the liquid price, which is not easy to fall deeply.

Although the external price performance was strong, due to the typhoon, the shipment of some domestic export sources was delayed, and there were many short-term shutdown of downstream devices, and the market demand performance was weak. The short-term market expectation is short. With the weakening of downstream inquiry intention, the focus of spot price continues to decline. According to the sample data monitored by business society, as of July 30, the domestic butadiene market price was 11312 yuan / ton, with a month on month increase of 27.79% and a year-on-year increase of 152.88%. In terms of price, the delivery price in central Shandong decreased slightly to about 11900-12000 yuan / ton; The self delivery price of East China tank is about 12000 yuan / ton.

The domestic butadiene market is still in the downward channel. Zhejiang Petrochemical’s phase II unit was put into operation, and Gulei Petrochemical also had a start-up plan in mid August. The medium-term performance of the supply side was short, further aggravating the downward pressure on the market. The poor shipment of some manufacturers led to the continuous decline of supply price, dragged down by the decline of the market, and there was no lack of news of lower price in the market.

In terms of enterprises, the listed price of butadiene of Sinopec sales companies is stable at 11900-12000 yuan / ton. A 250000 T / a butadiene unit of Zhejiang Petrochemical phase II was put into operation and restarted on July 27. The 130000 T / a butadiene unit of Gulei Petrochemical is planned to restart around August 8

As of July 30, the external supply price of butadiene by major manufacturers:

enterprise ., Price (yuan / ton). Device dynamics

Liaoyang Petrochemical 11850 yuan / ton Stable operation of 30000 T / a butadiene plant

Dalian Hengli 11760 yuan / ton The 140000 T / a butadiene unit operates stably, and the source of goods is normal for export

Liaotong chemical 120000t / a butadiene unit will be shut down for maintenance from July 14, 2021 There is no source of goods for online export

Fushun Petrochemical No export Normal operation of 160000 T / a butadiene extraction unit

Inner Mongolia Jiutai / The 70000t / a oxidative dehydrogenation unit has been shut down for maintenance since April 12, and is expected to last about 20-30 days

Silbang, Jiangsu 12000 yuan / ton Stable operation of 100000 t / a butadiene oxidative dehydrogenation unit

Zhenhai Refinery 11800 yuan / ton Normal operation of 165000 T / a unit

Shanghai Petrochemical 11800 yuan / ton Normal operation of 120000 T / a unit

Yangzi Petrochemical 11800 yuan / ton Normal operation of 120000 T / a unit

Sinopec 11800 yuan / ton The 200000 t / a unit operates normally, mainly for mutual supply

Maoming Petrochemical eleven thousand seven hundred and fifty 150000t / a unit operates normally, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Guangzhou Petrochemical 11800 yuan / ton The 30000 T / a unit operates normally, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

Wuhan ethylene 11800 yuan / ton The 190000 T / a extraction unit operates stably, mainly for mutual supply and a small amount for export

In terms of external market: as of July 30, the external market price of butadiene in Asia was stable: FOB Korea closed at US $1505-1515 / ton; CFR China closed at US $1495-1505 / ton. The external price of butadiene in Europe was stable: FOB Rotterdam closed at US $2045-2055 / ton; FD northwest Europe closed at 1565-1575 euros / ton.

region ., Country, closing price, up and down

Asia FOB Korea USD 1505-1515 / ton USD 0 / ton

Asia CFR China 1495-1505 USD / ton USD 0 / ton

Europe FOB Rotterdam USD 2045-2055 / T USD 0 / ton

Europe FD northwest Europe 1565-1575 euros / ton 0 euro / ton

The market entered the downward channel, resulting in the short expectation of businesses, and the launch of new production capacity is gradually put on the agenda. There is no good news support for the supply and demand fundamentals of the domestic butadiene market in the short term. Business analysts expect the market to continue to fall.

From July 26 to July 30, 2021, the market price of crude benzene increased from 6126 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6251 yuan / ton at the end of the week, with a weekly increase of 2.04%.

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene in July 2021 (unit: yuan / ton)

Date., adjusted price., adjusted amount

July 2, 8750., + 300

July 12, 8600. – 150

July 19, 8450. – 150

July 21, 8150. – 300

On July 21, 2021, the listing price of Sinopec’s pure benzene was reduced by 300 yuan / ton. At present, it is 8150 yuan / ton, of which Qilu Petrochemical is 8100 yuan / ton.

This week, the trend of crude oil was mainly volatile, the support of pure benzene and downstream was insufficient, the overall market mentality was low, the price of pure benzene fell slightly, the overall market of downstream hydrogenated benzene was mainly wait-and-see, and the price decreased slightly this week. In terms of supply, at present, most coking enterprises in the main production areas are facing the impact of environmental protection policies, and the output has decreased to a certain extent. Therefore, the bidding price this week is mainly increased with the support of tight supply.

In the future, with limited fundamentals, tight supply and stable downstream demand, the crude benzene price is expected to be stable, medium and strong in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1175 yuan / ton on July 25 and 1175 yuan / ton on July 30. The price of ammonium sulfate was stable this week.

2、 Market analysis

The market price of ammonium sulfate was stable this week. Coking grade market weakened, and some enterprises adjusted slightly. The supply of hexyl ammonium sulfate is tight, and the supply support has no downward trend. As of the weekend, the mainstream factory quotation of ammonium sulfate in Shandong was 1200-1260 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was 1200-1240 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was 1100-1200 yuan, and that in East China was 1100-1200 yuan / ton.

The price of compound fertilizer remained stable in most areas and increased slightly in some areas this week. Due to the high price of compound fertilizer raw materials, the price of compound fertilizer is easy to rise but difficult to fall under the support of raw materials, and the high-level finishing operation of compound fertilizer is mainly in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

According to the ammonium sulfate analyst of business society, due to the maintenance of some ammonium sulfate enterprises, the supply has not increased temporarily, and the follow-up of terminal demand is insufficient, there is no good news in the market. It is expected that in the short term, the price of ammonium sulfate will be mainly high, and it will fluctuate slightly within the range.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the price of baking soda rose in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1716.67 yuan / ton, and now the average market price is 1900 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 10.68%. On July 28, the commodity index of baking soda was 126.11, unchanged from yesterday, hitting a record high in the cycle, up 42.87% from the lowest point of 88.27 on December 22, 2020（ Note: period refers to 2020-09-01 to now)

2、 Market analysis

According to the business agency, the price of baking soda is strong, and the demand in the downstream market is good in the near future. At present, the price of baking soda in Henan is about 1850-1950 yuan, and the downstream demand is OK. It is expected that the price will be stable in the near future. The price of baking soda in Hebei is about 1850-1950 yuan / ton, and the downstream demand is acceptable. It is expected that the price will be strong in the later stage.

Raw materials: according to the monitoring data of business society, the price of soda ash was strong in July. At the beginning of the month, the average market price was 1882 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month, the average market price was 2075 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 10.26%. At present, the price in East China is stable and small. The mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 1950-2150 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in North China is temporarily stable, and the mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2100-2200 yuan / ton. The price of soda ash in Central China is temporarily stable, and the current mainstream market price of light soda ash is about 2000-2050 yuan / ton. Generally speaking, the short-term high price of soda ash is dominated.

Demand: in the downstream, the recent demand for baking soda from medicine, textile and food is acceptable, and the price of baking soda is strong in the near future. Business analysts believe that the price of soda upstream is strong, the market trading atmosphere is good, and the manufacturers are mainly active in shipping. In the downstream, the demand for baking soda from medicine, textile and food has improved recently. In general, the price of baking soda is strong in the short term or at a high level, depending on the downstream market demand.

In July 2021, the domestic 1# antimony ingot Market fluctuated upward. The average price of the domestic market was 55000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 63000 yuan / ton at the end of the month, with a monthly increase of 14.55%.

On July 27, the antimony commodity index was 83.53, the same as yesterday, down 18.36% from the highest point of 102.32 in the cycle (October 16, 2012), and up 77.80% from the lowest point of 46.98 on December 24, 2015（ Note: the period refers to the period from September 8, 2012 to now).

In early July, the price of antimony ingots began to fluctuate upward. Although the price rose in the first half of the month, the overall range was limited. Affected by the low intention of downstream receiving goods, the overall market transaction was limited, the ex factory price was strong, and the game mentality of both sides was strong. In the second half of the month, it is reported that the import of antimony ore will be limited in the next half of the year, and the duration may be up to the end of 21. Driven by the tight expectation of raw materials, enterprises’ intention to raise prices is rising. In order to cope with the shortage of raw materials, domestic manufacturers began to raise the ex factory price of antimony ingots, so as to alleviate the problem of insufficient domestic supply.

In terms of price, as of the 28th, the domestic market price of 2# antimony ingot was 62500 yuan / ton, 1# antimony ingot was 65500 yuan / ton and 0# antimony ingot was 66500 yuan / ton, up about 8000 yuan / ton compared with the same period last month.

The business agency believes that the sharp rise in the price of antimony ingots in July is mainly due to the shortage of raw materials, which is similar to the sharp rise at the beginning of the year. At present, the market inquiry is more enthusiastic than that in the early stage, which enhances the manufacturers’ confidence in supporting the price. It is expected that the price of antimony ingot will still have upward space in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the price trend of cryolite in Henan Province was stable this week. On July 25, the average market price in Henan was 6325 yuan / ton, which was the same as that on July 19 at the beginning of the week and decreased by 0.39% compared with that at the beginning of the month.

2、 Market analysis

The cryolite market operated steadily this week. It was learned from the manufacturer that the cryolite device operated normally, the commencement was stable, and the enterprise quotation was stable within the week. As of the 25th, the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Shandong was 6000-6500 yuan / ton, and the ex factory quotation of cryolite in Henan was 6000-6500 yuan / ton. The regional cryolite price remained stable compared with last week. At present, the supply of cryolite market is tight, and the inventory of individual enterprises has been sold out. In addition, enterprises reflect that the production capacity is low and the raw materials are tight. There is no possibility of reducing the price of cryolite in the short term. The specific trend depends on the upstream and downstream situation.

In terms of electrolytic aluminum, the price trend fluctuated this week, with an overall decline of 0.12% during the week. The domestic social inventory of aluminum was relatively low. The vigorous development of photovoltaic, new energy vehicles and other industries promoted the growth of aluminum demand, increased exports, rising overseas demand and strong demand side consumption. In addition, the second batch of national reserve aluminum was launched in late July, which effectively alleviated the shortage of aluminum supply, The trend of aluminum market in the later stage is mainly consolidation and operation.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic cryolite manufacturers’ devices are under normal operation, the enterprise production and sales are stable, the quotation is stable, and the downstream market is sorted and operated, which has little impact on the cryolite. Most cryolite manufacturers have a wait-and-see mentality. It is expected that the cryolite market will operate stably in the later stage, and pay attention to the downstream demand.

1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

According to the data of business agency, the domestic potassium sulfate Market has continued a positive trend recently. As of July 26, the average price of 50 particle samples of domestic potassium sulfate was 4433.33 yuan / ton, an increase of 8.57% over the average price at the beginning of the month and 65.73% over the same period last year.

The obvious positive trend of the domestic potassium sulfate Market has lasted for nearly two months. At present, the domestic potassium fertilizer market remains high and firm. In terms of supply, while maintaining the previous tight supply, there was a small increase in the on-site supply. Recently, the price of potassium chloride has remained stable, and the output of domestic potassium chloride fertilizer has decreased. The cost side pressure of potassium sulfate remains the same, the load of domestic Mannheim unit is further reduced, and the current overall operating rate is below 60%. However, the downstream conflict with high price sources affected the market momentum, the actual transaction was limited, and the market increase narrowed. At present, the ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of Shijiazhuang hehe Chemical Co., Ltd. is reported as 4600 yuan / ton. The ex factory reference price of 52% potassium sulfate powder of tripartite chemical group is reported as 4600 yuan / ton. Several potassium sulfate enterprises have closed their disks and do not receive orders for the time being. In terms of imported potassium, the operation of large-scale traders controlling goods was continued, and the spot price was mainly strong.

3、 Future forecast

Potassium sulfate analysts of business society believe that the recent domestic potassium fertilizer market trend continues to be strong, the price of potassium chloride remains stable, and the cost support of domestic potassium sulfate is acceptable. The potash fertilizer market is in short supply, which leads to the spot price of Lido potassium sulfate, but the cost pressure has led to the manufacturer’s offer higher than the market price recently, affecting the shipment. In terms of demand, the follow-up of terminal enterprises is still insufficient, and the shipment fluency of high price sources is poor. It is expected that the increase of domestic potassium sulfate price may narrow in the near future.