The domestic maleic anhydride market continued to rise in September, with an average quoted price of 9850 yuan/ton (including tax) as of September 30th, an increase of 20.12% from 8200 yuan/ton on September 1st.
On the supply side: In September, the upstream raw material n-butane for maleic anhydride continued to rise, supported by rising costs. Coupled with the maintenance of some maleic anhydride production facilities in the region, the industry’s operating load declined, and the market’s spot supply tightened. Traders’ reluctance to sell and drive up prices became prominent, supporting the upward trend of the maleic anhydride market in September. As of September 30th, the solid anhydride market in Shandong Province operates around a factory price of 900-9500 yuan/ton, while the liquid anhydride market operates around a factory price of 8500-8700 yuan/ton.
Upstream: In September, the n-butane market in Shandong continued to rise significantly, influenced by international geopolitical tensions and the rise in crude oil prices; Internationally, Saudi Arabia’s CP butane in September was $660/ton, an increase of $20 from August, and the cost of imported gas continued to rise, providing support for domestic gas reserves.
Downstream: The largest downstream of maleic anhydride is unsaturated polyester resin, followed by coatings, plasticizers, water treatment agents, and other fields. In September, we entered the traditional “Golden Nine” peak season for unsaturated resins. Downstream end industries such as fiberglass, handicrafts, and coatings saw an improvement in orders compared to the previous month. Resin companies also increased their production, leading to an increase in essential purchases and supporting the consumption of maleic anhydride. But as the price of maleic anhydride continues to rise, the raw material costs of resin companies have significantly increased, profits have been compressed, and downstream resistance to high prices has gradually emerged. They tend to maintain low inventory operations and lack the willingness to chase after price increases, which limits the further outbreak of the market.
Analysts believe that on the cost side, Saudi Arabia’s CP was introduced in October, with butane priced at 730 US dollars per ton, an increase of 70 US dollars from September. The cost of imported gas continues to rise, supporting the n-butane market; October is the traditional “Silver Ten” for the downstream resin industry, but there is uncertainty in terminal demand. On the one hand, if downstream terminal demand such as fiberglass and building materials continues to rebound, resin production will remain high, and there will be support for the demand for maleic anhydride; On the other hand, maleic anhydride is currently at a high level, and downstream enterprises face significant cost pressures. In addition, the impact of the National Day holiday in October has weakened the willingness of factories to stock up, and the market may maintain an on-demand procurement model. It is expected that the domestic maleic anhydride market will experience high volatility in October.