According to the commodity index system of business society, the natural rubber commodity index on October 31 was 40.70, the same as yesterday, down 59.30% from the highest point of 100.00 in the cycle (2011-09-01), and up 49.19% from the lowest point of 27.28 on April 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

Figure 2: mainstream price trend of natural rubber in October 2021

Figure 3: Weekly K-line chart of natural rubber mainstream price in October 2021

Data monitoring shows that in October 2021, the price of domestic natural rubber in China continued to fluctuate and rise, and turned downward near the end of the month. On the 1st, the mainstream price was about 13184.17 yuan / ton, and on the 30th, the mainstream price was about 13723.23 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 4.09%; Among them, the monthly highest price appeared at 14291.67 yuan / ton on the 19th, and the lowest price was 13184.17 yuan / ton during the national day, with a maximum amplitude of 8.4% in the month.

New rubber output: there were frequent reports of floods in Southeast Asia, especially in Thailand, India and other major producing countries this month. The rainy production area affected rubber output and the price of raw rubber increased; In China’s domestic area, according to the introduction of local traders, there is a shortage of raw rubber, and rubber cutting will be stopped in mid and late November. From the supply side, the market has strong market expectations for La Nina this winter.

Demand: in terms of tires, the data show that the operating load of all steel tires of tire enterprises in Shandong last week (25-29) was 60.52%, down 14.8% from the same period last year; The operating load of semi steel tires of domestic tire enterprises was 55.86%, down 14.95% compared with the same period last year; The soaring price of raw materials has led to the rising cost of tire enterprises. It is reported that due to factors such as poor sales in domestic and foreign markets and the sharp rise of manufacturing raw materials, the profits of domestic tire enterprises generally fell sharply in the third quarter. At present, more than 80 tire enterprises, including foreign tires, have announced the implementation of new price policies in October, and the price increase may continue, The tire price rise tide in the fourth quarter may reach its peak.

In terms of automobile: the operating rate of automobile manufacturers continues to be low due to chip shortage, power and production restriction and other factors, the spot inventory is small, and the sales naturally can not go up. The demand for raw material procurement is greatly affected, which directly leads to the high inventory pressure of finished tire products, the tire enterprises control the output, and the operating rate continues to decline; According to the preliminary data of the first commercial vehicle network, in October this year, China’s heavy truck market is expected to sell about 53000 models (billing caliber), a month on month decrease of 10% and a year-on-year decrease of 61.5%, which is the second lowest monthly sales since this year, only slightly higher than the “bottom” sales in August (51300 vehicles), a decrease of about 84000 vehicles compared with the same period last year. October is also the sixth decline in the heavy truck industry this year, and it has fallen for six consecutive months since May. Data show that from January to October, the cumulative sales volume of China’s heavy truck market was about 1286000, a year-on-year decrease of 6.4%, an increase of 6.1 percentage points compared with the 0.3% decline from January to September.

In terms of inventory: as of October 29, the inventory of natural rubber in the previous period was 285213 tons (+ 15818 tons), the quantity of futures warehouse receipts was 220320 tons (+ 8360 tons), the domestic delivery inventory increased, and the monthly increment increased significantly; The energy inventory in the previous period was 40437 tons (+ 4638 tons) of No. 20 glue and 28910 tons (+ 1412 tons) of futures warehouse receipts. The inventory also increased significantly. In Qingdao, although the social inventory of natural rubber is still low, it has increased slightly. The amount of rubber delayed in the early stage has arrived in Hong Kong one after another.

Import and export: according to the data of the General Administration of customs, China imported 620000 tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) in September 2021, a year-on-year decrease of 28.9%; From January to September 2021, China imported 4.96 million tons of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex), and the cumulative import volume from January to August decreased by 7.6% year-on-year.

Figure 4: tire enterprises intensively issue price increase notices

Hot spots in the industry: affected by the increasing tire manufacturing costs caused by the continuous rise of raw material prices, the sharp rise of freight and the decline of enterprise production capacity caused by power and production restrictions, many tire enterprises intensively issued tire price increase notices. For example, the price of all steel and semi steel of Linglong tire will be increased by 3% – 5% from October 1; From October 11, the price of all brands of commercial vehicle tires will be increased by 2%; Since October, the prices of all brand products of Zhengdao tire have increased by 3% – 5%; The price of all products of the whole brand of East China tire has increased by 3% – 5% since October; Since October 10, the sales price of Shandong Yongsheng rubber to the company’s tbr products has risen by 3% – 5%. The following figure shows the price increase notice of several enterprises

Figure 5: annual comparison of domestic mainstream trend of natural rubber from 2019 to 2021

In the future, the situation in 2021 is special. Under the comprehensive action of multiple factors, the natural rubber market is really not easy. It is expected that in the future, the traditional peak consumption season has passed, and the key problems that determine the downstream demand still cannot be solved in the short term, resulting in weak demand; On the supply side, China’s domestic areas will continue to stop cutting next month. This year’s maritime dilemma has delayed the arrival of imported rubber at the port. At present, the arrival volume will continue to increase, which will offset the supply shortage caused by cutting. What is more prominent is that the market generally has strong expectations for La Nina this winter, which may lead to an obvious reduction in supply, which will strongly support the rubber price. In conclusion, from the comprehensive impact analysis of the macro situation at both ends of supply and demand, especially the guiding role of crude oil, it is expected that the natural rubber shock is relatively weak in the short term.