I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on November 22 was 4800 yuan / ton, up 0.7% from last week.

At the beginning of this week, the price of ethylene glycol single can in East China was 4675 yuan / ton. After several days of rising, it fell to 4692.5 yuan / ton on Thursday.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

The total domestic operating rate this week was 68.29%, up from last week. The starting load of downstream polyester plant is about 86.54%, slightly lower than last week.

As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 411300 tons, down 15700 tons from Monday, down 4.26%. This week, the cumulative delivery volume of glycol in the main port is 46100 tons, and the late arrival volume is about 280000 tons.

III. future forecast

Glycol analysts of business news agency believe that although the delivery of glycol is not good this week, but the arrival volume is far lower than expected, so the continuous inventory reduction has boosted market confidence. In the later stage, the manufacturer started work stably, and there was pressure for the new device to be put into operation, which would suppress the price of glycol to a certain extent. It is worth noting that due to the delay factor, the arrival volume of ethylene glycol will increase significantly next week. At that time, if the delivery is still not improved, it will lead to the increase of port inventory and the decline of price.

Price trend

China’s liquefied natural gas fell for 12 consecutive days from November 2, stopped falling and rising on November 14, and ushered in a new round of price rise. According to the data monitoring of business agency: on November 1, the average price of LNG was 4750 yuan / ton, and on November 13, the average price was 4046.67 yuan / ton. The LNG price dropped 14.81% for several days, while on November 14, the LNG price rebounded, the average price was 4090 yuan / ton, 1.07% higher than the previous day, and 8.35% lower than the same period last year.

At present, LNG price rebounds

Product: according to the data monitoring of business agency, as of November 14, the LNG price of Inner Mongolia Erdos Star Energy Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, and the LNG price of Inner Mongolia etokeqian banner Shitai Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4020 yuan / ton. The LNG price of Xinjiang Qinghua Energy Group Co., Ltd. is 4000 yuan / ton, that of Zizhou LNG plant of Shaanxi Lvyuan Natural Gas Co., Ltd. is 4100 yuan / ton, that of Xinjiang guanghuinaomao Lake (east of Lanzhou) is 2900 yuan / ton, that of Shanxi Qinshui Xinao is 3850 yuan / ton, that of Dazhou Huixin energy is 3700 yuan / ton, and that of Shaanxi Zhongyuan lvneng Natural Gas Co., Ltd At 4150 yuan / ton, liquid prices began to stop rising.

LNG goes up again when heating season comes

In recent days, the cold air hit, LNG market also ushered in a turnaround. On November 15, central heating in northern cities officially started, and LNG prices in some northern areas began to rise in advance. Mainly due to the continuous decline of LNG price in the early stage and frequent cost inversion of the enterprise, the upstream enterprises have a high sentiment in view of the loss. With the rapid decline of LNG market in the early stage, it is possible for the market to store and copy the bottom, the shipment will gradually improve, the liquid level will gradually decrease, and the confidence of the operators will increase. On November 14, the bidding for Northwest LNG direct supply plant of CNPC began, with a total volume of 120 million cubic meters of natural gas, among which the first transaction price of 80 million cubic meters of natural gas was 2.2-2.25 yuan / square, and the second transaction price of 40 million cubic meters of natural gas was 2.38 yuan / square, with a maximum price limit of 2.38 yuan / square, slightly lower than the previous round of bidding. The northwest feed gas auction has been greatly adjusted, and the maximum price of the auction has been limited, which plays a great role in stabilizing the LNG market and alleviating the contradiction of heating season increase. In terms of the terminal, affected by the 6-day suspension of loading of 15-20 of Rudong LNG terminal, the shipment of the surrounding terminal is smooth, which also drives the price of the surrounding LNG market up.

As the weather turns cool, Beijing, Tianjin and Hebei have issued heavy pollution weather warning for many times. At present, the environmental protection requirements are relatively strict. We have actively built a clean, low-carbon, safe and efficient modern energy system, and made every effort to promote the consumption of clean energy. The pressure of environmental protection, “coal to gas” has stimulated the rapid growth of natural gas demand. However, LNG prices are too low this year, coupled with cost problems, manufacturers are willing to support the market. However, due to the impact of low-cost imported LNG and bidding factors, there is limited space for rising.

Domestic full response to natural gas demand

Since this year, China has made solid progress in the construction of natural gas production, supply, storage and marketing system. The policy of “coal is suitable for coal, gas is suitable for gas” also pays more attention to resource coordination, and people’s livelihood gas can be effectively guaranteed. “Three barrels of oil” actively increased storage and production, fully prepared for the heating season, and imported LNG began to play a role of supply guarantee. The natural gas pipeline of China Russia east line was put into operation in early December, which can increase new resource supply; in terms of transportation, it also vigorously promoted the interconnection of pipeline networks, effectively increasing the gas supply capacity of “south to North” and “northeast to customs” channels. It is estimated that the annual domestic production of natural gas will be over 170 billion cubic meters, with an increase of more than 11 billion cubic meters. As of this year’s heating season, the country is expected to build a gas storage capacity of nearly 20 billion cubic meters.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are seven commodities in the list of commodity prices rising and falling on November 14, 2019, among which the top three commodities are liquefied natural gas (1.07%), MTBE (0.62%) and WTI crude oil (0.56%) There are two kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month ratio, the first two products with a decline are dimethyl ether (- 1.39%) and methanol (- 0.96%) The average rise and fall of this day was 0.05%.

III. future forecast

According to the LNG analyst of business association, with the rapid drop of temperature in recent days and the arrival of central heating in the north, the heating demand will increase accordingly. In addition, factors such as bidding will benefit the LNG market. LNG is expected to rise in the future.

I. price trend

The average price of phosphoric acid was 5333.33 yuan / ton on November 1 and 5400 yuan / ton on November 15, according to the bulk data list of the business agency. The market of phosphoric acid remained stable as a whole, up 1.25% slightly, up 25.1% compared with the same period last year

II. Market analysis

Product: in November, phosphoric acid market is still consolidation oriented, with a steady rising trend. Due to the fluctuation of the cost of raw materials, the price of phosphoric acid rose tentatively. However, the downstream demand is not high, and the overall market trading is still tepid, with occasional new orders. At present, there is no obvious positive support for the price of phosphoric acid. According to the monitoring of business association, as of November 15, the average market price of 85% industrial purified water phosphoric acid was about 5400 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price was about 4700-5800 yuan / ton. Prices across the country are generally stable, mainly on a wait-and-see basis, and the overall market is light.

Industry chain: since the beginning of November, phosphorus ore market has been in a weak state of consolidation, downstream market demand is still weak, on-site trading is weak, enterprises sporadically supply orders from old customers, continue to digest inventory, new orders are scarce, and the pressure on mine inventory has been large. The yellow phosphorus market is temporarily stable. Some enterprises offer high-end prices, and the market price is stable. The market situation is slightly stable and tends to be strong. The market is not warm and the market is not hot. Some enterprises in the whole market are slightly low in price, and most enterprises wait and see.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 44th week of 2019 (11.4-11.8), there are 15 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the list of commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are R22 (7.76%), acetone (5.71%) and chloroform (2.83%) There are 36 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, with 5 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 5.9% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are epichlorohydrin (- 8.77%), ammonium sulfate (- 7.84%) and hydrogen peroxide (- 7.21%) This week’s gains and losses were – 0.68%.

III. future forecast

According to the phosphoric acid analyst of business and chemical branch, due to the insufficient support of raw material end cost and limited end demand, phosphoric acid enterprises are mostly in a wait-and-see state, and the price is expected to maintain stability and consolidation, and it is expected that the price of phosphoric acid will still maintain stability and consolidation in the short term.

I. price trend

The domestic BDO market is mainly sorted out. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of November 15, the average price of the domestic BDO market was 9520 yuan / ton, with a stable price month on month, down 10.61% year on year.

II. Market analysis

Products: the domestic BDO market is high-end, with weak cost support. However, the factory inventory is low, the offer is firm, the low price is hard to sell, the downstream just needs to make up the position, and the market wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

In terms of market, the BDO market in North China has been digested and sorted out, the supply of goods in the field is stable, the firm price intention of the factory continues, the downstream market is more cautious, and the on-site wait-and-see atmosphere is strong. The BDO market in East China is stagnant and consolidated. In addition to crane coal maintenance, other plants and devices in the site operate normally. However, the inventory of the plant is not under pressure, and the attitude of supporting the market continues. The downstream market enters the market as required, and the transaction center in the site is temporarily stable. The BDO market in South China is in a strong operation, the on-site starting load is steadily increased, the downstream market entry enthusiasm is weak, just need to place an order to make up the position, the supplier’s intention to keep the price is high, and the on-site transaction center is on the upper side.

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the mainland of Zhou Dynasty and ports all fell to varying degrees. The futures remained weak, the port inventory decreased slightly in the week, but it was still on the high side as a whole, the delivery speed was average, and the short-term high stock pressure continued. On the mainland side, part of the port’s goods flowed into Shandong and other places in the week, which to some extent suppressed the trend of the mainland market, and the downstream market was not good, and the goods received were limited. In addition, the mainland was abundant in supply, and more profits were sold in various regions. In addition, the price of natural gas in Southwest China rose by 10%, with limited decline under the support of cost. However, at present, the gas head enterprises are in a state of loss. In the later stage, some units may reduce the load / stop, but the overall stop time of this year may be lower than that of previous years.

Calcium carbide: the calcium carbide Market in Inner Mongolia fluctuates in a narrow range. The main factory price of the local first-class calcium carbide is about 2500-2850 yuan / ton. The output of the local manufacturers is normal, and the downstream reception is acceptable. Based on the overall analysis, it is predicted that the short-term market price will fluctuate in a narrow range

III. future forecast

On the positive side, the manufacturer is willing to support the market, and crane coal overhauls. On the negative side, downstream demand continued to be weak. BDO analysts predict that in the short term, the domestic BDO market will be shaken and sorted out, with specific attention to plant restart.

I. price trend

According to the data of the business club’s large scale list, the price trend of domestic TDI market fluctuated and decreased this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price in East China was 12266.67 yuan / ton, while at the end of the week, the average market price was 12100.00 yuan / ton, down 1.36% in the week, down 41.69% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Products: this week, the TDI market in East China was weak, the price was slightly reduced, the atmosphere in the market was depressed, the transaction was rare and followed up, the attitude of the industry tended to be cautious, and the stable negotiation and shipment were reported. As of the 15th, the quotation of domestic goods with bills in East China is 11300-11400 yuan / ton, and that of Shanghai goods with bills is 11500-11600 yuan / ton, with some actual orders slightly lower.

Industry chain: the price of nitric acid in the upper reaches has been slightly reduced. The market price at the weekend is about 1650.00 yuan / ton, down 1.98% from 1686.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The market of nitric acid industry is stagnant, weak and the demand is light. The prices of some manufacturers have also been reduced. It is expected that the nitric acid market will continue to operate in a weak way.

In terms of upstream toluene, the market picked up a little this week, with trading volume rising. According to the feedback from traders, the trading volume picked up this week on a month-on-week basis, and the port inventory decreased slightly, about 26000 tons. The overall supply of toluene is sufficient, while the downstream demand is not good, so the wait-and-see mood is strong. It is expected that the toluene market will be stable and volatile next week.

Industry: the downstream of TDI is depressed and raw material inventory remains high. However, China US trade makes the export of TDI and downstream industries slightly difficult. The downstream terminal industry is facing a decrease in export. The digestion speed of TDI is not as fast as before, and the demand tends to be flat. At present, the price of TDI industry is in a downward trend. Under the mentality of “buying up but not buying down”, the market trading continues to be depressed. The industry pays more attention to the information of all parties and trades cautiously.

III. future forecast

According to the analysis of the Data Engineer of the business agency, the TDI market is generally stable and weak, the supply of goods keeps high, while the downstream market is lack of intention, small orders are mainly followed up, the overall negotiation of the industry is low-end shipment, and the low price market is still heard from time to time, and it is expected that the TDI market is stable and weak.

I. price trend

In this week’s (11.11-11.15), the domestic 1 × tin ingot market fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 137700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 135512.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.59%.

On November 15, the tin commodity index was 69.03, up 0.08 points from yesterday, down 31.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 61.06% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, the overall trend of Lunxi declined. On Friday, the pressure fell again. As of 17:15, the latest price of Lunxi was $16180 / ton. In the week, it dropped 595 US dollars / ton, or 3.55%, with 1676 transactions and 17797 positions, up 182. In terms of Shanghai tin, the main 2001 contract of Shanghai tin fell this week. On Friday, Shanghai tin generally remained weak and volatile. The closing price of Shanghai tin on Friday was 134490 yuan / ton, down 2690 yuan / ton in the week, down 1.96%, with volume of 121000 hands, position of 40004 hands, up 1824 hands. Spot market: as of Friday, the spot price was 134500-136000 yuan / ton, 2250 yuan / ton lower than 136500-138500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. In terms of market transactions, the number of bottom finding transactions increased this week, while transactions in East China were OK. For the Shanghai tin 2001 contract, Yunxi’s premium is 1200-1500 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi’s premium is 400-600 yuan / ton and small brand’s premium is 200-300 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: this week’s data in Europe and the United States was lower than expected, the U.S. dollar index was high and volatile, and basic metals fell across the board under the pressure of short return.

III. future prospects

Next week, the US data is expected to be moderate, and the US dollar is expected to fall back at a high level. The domestic metal market will attract long-term delivery of spot goods. Under the condition of loose capital, support for base metal repair fell sharply this week, and some metal items that can be supported by the fundamentals are expected to recover. It is expected that the spot tin market will continue to maintain a volatile pattern and the material center of gravity will move up.

Trade name: phenol

East China market (November 11): 7050 yuan / ton

Trend chart of domestic phenol Market Price

Analysis: phenol Market is still depressed in the new week, and the whole market is weak. Downstream terminals participate in the purchase and demand, offer intention is low-end, the whole market negotiation is cold, the confidence of traders is insufficient, the focus is narrow and loose, and the trading is poor. At present, the focus is on the dynamics of petrochemical manufacturers. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will continue to be weak today, and the negotiation range of the phenol Market in East China is 7000-7050 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of phenol in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 7050-50

Shandong area 7300

Surrounding area of Yanshan 7200

South China 7450 0

 
Trade name: acetone

Market price (November 11, East China): 4800 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: in the new week, the acetone market is still hot, the market is running at a high level, the supply of goods in Shandong is tense, and the offer is reduced; Yangzhou Shiyou no.6 is parked, and the shipment is suspended at present; the port inventory has dropped to a new low within the year, the spot resource supply in the field is tight, the sentiment of holding the firm price of goods is strong, some traders enter the market to replenish goods, and support the high-level negotiation in the market. The business community expects that today’s Acetone Market The high level continued, and the negotiation range of East China market was about 4850 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of acetone in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 4800 + 100

Shandong area 4800 + 50

Surrounding area of Yanshan Mountain 4700

4850 + 50 in South China

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. The quotation is 306.67 yuan / ton, down 44.99% year on year. Overall, sulfuric acid was temporarily stable this week, with a commodity index of 47.73 on November 8

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is temporarily stable, with small inventory and general downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 320 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 150 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

(II) industrial chain:

In the near future, the domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere in the downstream monoammonium market is not good, the trading volume is light, and the trading volume of new orders is not ideal. The market of diammonium is also low and consolidated, and the downstream demand is less. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issue early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price is temporarily stable, and the downstream construction is generally started, and the product trend tends to be stable under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business association sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to be flat.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of this week, the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China was 6437.50 yuan / ton, while the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China at the weekend was 6425.00 yuan / ton, down 0.19%, and the current price was 7.05% lower than that of last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash fluctuated and fell. The market of potash in the golden nine silver ten middle schools has been stable. In November, the price of potash could not maintain a small decline. The market trading atmosphere is relatively cold, while the demand side maintains rigid purchase, resulting in the price of potassium nitrate shock and consolidation. At the same time, the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is at a low level, the overall inventory is at a low level, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate market fluctuates and falls. According to the statistics of business agency: in November, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that this week’s potash market fell in shock, the trading atmosphere of potash fertilizer market was cold, downstream demand did not improve temporarily, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is difficult to improve, and the transaction is difficult. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see

I. price trend

In October 2019, the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingot rose and fell. The average price of domestic market at the beginning of the month was 135712.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 138262.50 yuan / ton, up 1.88%.

On October 31, the tin commodity index was 70.43, down 0.13 points from yesterday, down 29.75% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 64.33% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis

Domestic market: this month, Lunxi and Huxi hit high and fell back. Lunxi rebounded to 17240 from the lowest point of 15850 on September 30. In the late ten days, Lunxi maintained a shock pattern in the first line of 16750, and fell at the end of the month. The overall trend of Shanghai tin is stronger than that of Lunxi. This month, it rebounded to 141790 from 133260, the lowest point, and then entered 138500. In October, there were frequent news of production reduction in domestic and foreign tin industry, which stimulated the strong upward trend of tin price in the first half of the month. However, the downward trend of domestic and foreign economy led to sluggish demand, further upward trend of tin price was blocked, and this month, the tin price rose and fell. As of the end of the month, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 136500-138500 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s quotation was firm, but the transaction was not ideal. Some traders and downstream suppliers had replenishment, and the market purchase volume was relatively small. As of the end of the month, the premium of Yunxi in Shanghai phase tin 2001 contract is 700-1000 yuan / ton, that of ordinary Yunzi is 200-200 yuan / ton, and that of small brand is 400-800 yuan / ton.

Industry: this week, before and after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting, the US dollar index continued to decline, but a series of domestic and foreign economic data were weak after the interest rate cut as scheduled, which led to concerns about the continued weakness of the future macro-economy. After this week, the US Congress officially launched the impeachment procedure for trump, and the base metal showed a trend of “first, then the second”.

Import and export: Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year on year in September, according to data released by the Ministry of trade on October 11. According to data, Indonesia’s refined tin exports last month were 5225.26 tons, down from 8854.30 tons in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, refined tin exports in September fell 5% from the previous month.

According to the data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on October 16, the supply gap of the global tin market from January to August 2019 was 5600 tons. Total reported inventory is 7100 tonnes higher than at the end of 2018, but this includes 6000 tonnes of Indonesia’s unexplained increase in inventory. From January to August 2019, the global refined tin production increased by 6000 tons compared with the same period last year. Asian production increased 5900 tons year on year. China’s apparent demand increased by 8% year on year. From January to August 2019, the global tin demand is 254400 tons, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 18400 tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. In August 2019, the refined tin output is 32000 tons, and the consumption is 31800 tons.

According to data released by the Beijing Branch of the international tin Association, China’s refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% year-on-year to about 75000 tons. According to ITA’s survey of 15 refineries in China, the output of refined tin in June was about 12500 tons, down 9% month on month and year-on-year. China is the number one tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA’s chief representative for China, said the decline in refined tin production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrate in Myanmar and weak demand in China. So far at the beginning of the year, the price of tin in Shanghai has dropped nearly 8% to about 134000 yuan per ton. Cui said prices below the 140000 yuan mark would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.

III. future prospects

Next week’s economic data is still concentrated. In addition to the employment data, there are PMI data from various countries. It’s hard to be optimistic about the expected value, and there’s no room for a sharp rise in the low dollar index recovery. However, the worry about economic fatigue still makes the bullies of various metals afraid. If the market shows a correction, it may increase the willingness of downstream consumers to buy into the market. In November, the market will be closed The atmosphere will be much better than this week.