Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate remained stable this week, with the average tax price of 6437.50 yuan per ton for the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate manufactured during the week, and the current price fell by 6.87% compared with last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the market of potassium carbonate is stable, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is general, the activity is low, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers is not positive, the actual market turnover is insufficient, downstream purchasing maintains just demand, while the plant start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, the overall inventory of low-level purchasing market momentum is low, domestic potassium carbonate. The market is stable. According to the statistics of business associations: in September, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate factory is about 6400-6800 yuan/ton (quotation only for reference). The quotation varies according to the purchasing situation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts of business associations believe that this week’s potassium carbonate market is stable, and the end of September is approaching. The traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is underdeveloped. Potassium carbonate prices are as stable as ever. Later, driven by various factors, the main concern is whether demand has increased at the end of the festival, and the price of potassium carbonate may recover.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of September 22, the phosphate ore market has been running smoothly as a whole. Enterprises in several mainstream areas monitored by comprehensive business associations have quoted prices for 30% of domestic grade phosphate ores at an average price of 330-430 yuan per ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the phosphorus ore market has not fluctuated and continues to operate steadily. At present, the phosphorus ore market transaction is stable. Enterprises supply old customers’orders sporadically. The atmosphere of new orders transaction is slightly light. Some mining enterprises plan to stop production and reduce production. In the near future, the market digests inventory mainly to reduce production and maintain stable quotation. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. in Guizhou is 370 yuan/ton (including tax), the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou is 350 yuan/ton (including tax), and the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fanshan Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd. in Hebei Province is 530 yuan. / Tons (including taxes), 28% phosphorus ore from Liushugou, Hubei, quoted 420 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: The market of yellow phosphorus is stable for the time being, the stock is near the end before National Day, and the downstream supply is mainly sporadic. The net phosphorus turnover refers to 18500-20000 yuan per ton. The phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost of raw materials and intends to increase, but downstream is cautious and has limited acceptance of high prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that: in the short term, it is expected that the phosphate ore market will continue to operate steadily.

According to statistics, domestic hydrofluoric acid prices declined this week, ending the weekend at 10 320 yuan/ton, down 0.48% from 10 370 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week and 5.55% from the same period last year.

Products: Hydrofluoric acid prices continued to decline this week, the recent market situation of manufacturers is poor, the downstream refrigerant industry start-up rate remains low, the domestic market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, coupled with domestic hydrofluoric acid plants maintain a high start-up rate, domestic spot supply is sufficient, and some manufacturers continue to reduce their ex-factory prices. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiations in the southern region was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, while the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market was 9500-10000 yuan/ton. Recently, the domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid has fallen, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is poor, the supply of hydrofluoric acid manufacturers is not good, and the market price trend is declining. By the end of the weekend, the mainstream of domestic negotiations on hydrofluoric acid in Fujian was around 9500-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Shandong was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Jiangxi was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, the price of hydrofluoric acid in Inner Mongolia was 9500-10000 yuan/ton, and the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continued to decline.

Industry chain: The price of fluorite in the upstream of hydrofluoric acid slightly decreased this week. The factory price of fluorite was 2877.78 yuan/ton by the end of the week. The fluorite price dropped 0.38% this week. The domestic fluorite supply is normal, but the price of fluorite has a downward trend. The downstream cost price has a negative impact on the hydrofluoric acid market. Recent downstream refrigerant market trading market is general, domestic refrigerant R22 market shocks down, from the market supply point of view, refrigerant R22 market continues to be weak, manufacturers reduce the start-up load, market supply capacity has decreased, inventory pressure has been buffered. On the demand side, downstream air-conditioning manufacturers’overhaul showed no increase in demand, and the price of domestic large enterprises fell to 1250-14000 yuan/ton. The domestic market price of R134a has declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has remained low, the market demand for refrigerants has decreased, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, on-site transaction prices continue to decline, merchants purchase on demand, the end of the peak season, downstream terminal demand only declined, hydrofluoric acid market prices declined. However, on-site transaction prices are lower, merchants purchase on demand. Recently, due to the normal supply of goods and poor downstream demand, the price trend of hydrofluoric acid market continues to decline. Aluminum fluoride price trend of downstream products is temporarily stable in the near future, which is 10 333.33 yuan per ton at the weekend. The price trend is temporarily stable. Recently, the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining due to the poor market.

Industry: This week, the spot supply of raw materials fluorite and hydrofluoric acid in the upstream market is normal, and the trading market of refrigerant industry in the downstream market is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid is declining.

Recent domestic refrigerant plant start-up rate has maintained a low level, the market demand for hydrofluoric acid has decreased, the spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is normal, and the raw material market price has a downward trend. Chen Ling, an analyst of hydrofluoric acid business association, believes that the market price of hydrofluoric acid will be slightly lower next week, and the price of hydrofluoric acid will be around 10,000 yuan/ton.

Price data

By September 20, the average domestic fuel oil distribution price was 4650.00 yuan/ton, up 2.42% from 4540.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

The fuel oil commodity index on September 20 was 94.18, unchanged from yesterday, down 18.75% from the cyclical peak of 115.91 points (2018-10-17), and up 104.38% from the lowest point of 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2011-09-01 to date)

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: Domestic fuel oil trade is normal this week, the actual transaction price is about 4650 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was 54.85 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the week, 58.13 US dollars per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 5.98%; Brent crude oil was 60.22 US dollars per barrel at the beginning of the week and 64.40 US dollars per barrel at the weekend, with a weekly increase and decrease of 6.94%. Saudi Arabia’s oil equipment was attacked early this week and the market rose in panic. Since the attack, the situation has stabilized. Saudi Arabia has not reduced its oil exports, and American inventories have increased. International oil prices have soared and fallen. On Wednesday, September 11, the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil rose by 154 yuan/ton, the winning bidding amount was 0.9 million tons, the bidding amount was 16.2 million tons, and the volume was 0.9 million tons; the bid base was 3,406 yuan/ton, and the winning range was 3,486-3,506 yuan/ton. On Thursday, September 19 (Thursday), the weighted average price of Fukushi shale oil fell by 45 yuan/ton, with 11,000 tons of winning bid, 11,900 tons of bidding and 11,000 tons of volume. The tender base is 3406, the winning range is 3446-3486 yuan/ton, and the next tender time is September 26.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, there are 11 kinds of commodities rising annually in the energy sector in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20). Among them, there are 3 kinds of commodities rising more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector. The first three commodities rising are liquefied gas (7.87%), Brent crude oil (6.94%) and WTI crude oil (5.98%). ) There is a total of 1 kind of commodities falling in the ring ratio, and diesel oil (-0.77%) is the product of the decline. This week’s average rise and fall was 1.98%.

3. Future Market Forecast

Energy analysts of business associations believe that the surge of international crude oil in Saudi Arabia at the beginning of this week led to the rise of domestic ship fuel market and shale oil prices, which led to a sharp increase of 100-200 yuan/ton in domestic ship fuel market. However, international crude oil prices dropped sharply at the weekend, and shale oil prices fell. The overall ship fuel market was depressed and the wait-and-see mood was strong. Fuel oil market prices are expected to remain stable in the near future, or around 4650 yuan/ton.

I. Lithium hydroxide price trend:

The average price of lithium hydroxide was 71266.67 yuan per ton as of September 20, according to the data of the business association’s list. The market of lithium hydroxide was mainly stable. Some enterprises’quotations fell slightly, by 0.09% compared with the beginning of the week and by 6.23% compared with September 1.

II. Market analysis:

Product: Lithium hydroxide market prices fell steadily and moderately this week. The supply of goods in the market is abundant, but the downstream consumption speed is insufficient to follow up, and the contradiction between supply and demand is unbalanced. At present, the quotation of industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai is 68,000 yuan/ton, industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai Oujin is 71,800 yuan/ton, industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Shanghai Chen lithium material is 71,000 yuan/ton, and industrial grade lithium hydroxide in Zigong Tongfarong is 74,000 yuan/ton. Let’s talk about it one by one.

Industry Chain: Upstream industrial lithium carbonate weekly rise and fall of -0.36%, battery lithium carbonate weekly rise and fall of -0.31%. This week, the price of lithium carbonate has slowed down, and manufacturers are mainly active shipments.

Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 37 th week of 2019 (9.16-9.20), there were 41 kinds of commodities rising annually in the chemical sector, 11 of which increased by more than 5%, accounting for 13.1% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were hydrochloric acid (157.14%), caustic soda (18.47%) and acetone (13.86%). There are 17 kinds of commodities with a decline of more than 5%, accounting for 1.2% of the monitored commodities in this sector. The products with the first three declines are dichloromethane (-5.19%), trichloromethane (-4.17%) and sulfuric acid (-2.98%). This week’s average rise and fall was 3.64%.

3. Future market forecast:

Lithium hydroxide analysts at business associations believe that the upstream lithium carbonate market has been weak recently, and the cost support for lithium hydroxide has also weakened. There is no substantial improvement in downstream demand and lack of strong incentives. It is expected that the lithium hydroxide Market will be reorganized in the short term. More attention should be paid to the downstream market demand.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic methanol market continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of methanol in domestic market was 2098 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, it was 2180 yuan/ton. Within the week, the price increased by 3.91%, 1.98% and 32.90% compared with the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic methanol market continued to rise this week, affected by the expected production of Ningxia Baofeng and Datang Duolun olefin units, the northwest sellable goods decreased, with the centralized purchasing of terminal before National Day, this week mainland methanol continued to rise; port inventory remained high, but the methanol futures linkage was obvious, the focus of the week was obvious. Promote. In terms of inventory, the total inventory of ports in eastern and southern China was 1.4789 million tons, an increase of 116.7 million tons over the same period last week. As for methanol to olefins, a MTP plant in Datang Duolun was put into operation this week, and the production of 600,000 tons/year olefin equipment in Baofeng Phase II in Ningxia was put into production on the 12th, with a short shutdown of several days this week.

Industry chain: formaldehyde: This week, the formaldehyde Market as a whole rose. The upstream methanol market is operating at a high level, and the cost is well supported. The downstream market demand tends to be stable. Purchase is just needed. The overall turnover is still acceptable. The narrow margin of North China and East China market is obvious, while the narrow margin of rise in other areas. At present, the profit margin of formaldehyde enterprises is good.

Acetic acid: The domestic acetic acid market is weak this week. With the start-up of acetic acid plants in China, the number of social stocks is gradually increasing, while the downstream demand is relatively stable and the export side is generally digested. As a result, the accumulated stock of some domestic suppliers is gradually obvious, and the hollow state of the market is obvious, and the downstream for acetic acid is obvious. Digestion contract is the main, new single purchase a small amount, leading to some northwest, Shandong, Henan suppliers to yield shipment intention is obvious, the active decline of suppliers aggravates the market hollow state, leading to domestic acetic acid market transactions continue to decline.

Dimethyl ether: The price of domestic dimethyl ether has been raised frequently this week. Most manufacturers’prices have risen to 100 yuan/ton. The trading atmosphere has improved appropriately. This price increase is mainly driven by the soaring price of crude oil. The reference price of methanol in Henan Province, the main producing area, is 2120 yuan/ton. The rapid rise in cost directly affects the profits of dimethyl ether enterprises, thus driving up the prices of production enterprises. However, after the price increase, dimethyl ether enterprises are still in a loss state. Take Henan as an example. The theoretical loss of former enterprises reached about 120 yuan/ton. In terms of transaction, after the Mid-Autumn Festival, transportation has been restored to supply, and terminal supply is appropriate, but the volume of transactions is generally small, and there is no enthusiasm for large-scale procurement.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperatives Viewpoint: On the positive side, there is a centralized supply demand and considerable purchasing volume at the terminal before National Day; on the methanol-to-olefin plant, Datang Duolun is restarted; and on the 12th production of 600,000 tons/year olefin plant in Baofeng Phase II, Ningxia. This week, shipments were smooth in the main production areas of Northwest China, and most factories in Inner Mongolia and Shaanxi were closed down. On the negative side, the arrival of methanol in the port is concentrated, and the stock of the port is greatly increased; in the orderly construction of new methanol plants in China, Yingde in Jingmen has produced its products in late August; chlor-alkali chemical industry in Ordos on September 10; near the National Day, environmental protection supervision in the north is strengthened, and downstream areas such as Shandong and North China are likely to shrink. At present, the pre-sale of methanol plants in the Mainland is ideal, with low inventory, which has been suspended for more than this week, and the methanol terminal has a backup plan. Methanol analysts of business associations predict that the methanol market in the Mainland will continue to rise next week, with northwest as the main driving force; port inventory continues to suppress the rebound in the market, and the market has relatively abundant circulating goods. It is estimated that next week. The market will show a volatile trend.

Price Trend

According to the price monitoring of business associations, the domestic R 134 ex-factory price continued to fall this week. The price at the end of the week (12 th) was 25166.67 yuan/ton, which was 27,000 yuan/ton compared with the price at the beginning of the week (9 th), and the price fell by 6.79%, which was 14.2% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the market price of R134a has been markedly reduced. The operating load of the equipment of the manufacturer is low and stable. At the same time, the domestic demand environment has been weakening continuously. The new orders of the manufacturer are not good. The demand of the air conditioning industry has declined obviously, and the market demand is weak. There is great pressure on sales of R134a. Businessmen are pessimistic and the price has been lowered obviously. At present, the quotations of manufacturers are mostly concentrated in 24000-28000 yuan/ton. According to the data of business associations, as of September 12, Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. had a price of 27,000 yuan/ton, Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. had a price of 24,000 yuan/ton, Zhejiang Lengwang Technology Co., Ltd. had a price of 24,500 yuan/ton, and Jiangsu Blue Star Environmental Protection Technology Co., Ltd. had a price of 28,000 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: The mainstream price of domestic anhydrous hydrofluoric acid manufacturers for upstream products is 9500-10000 yuan/ton. The ex-factory price of some factories in the field keeps low. The domestic hydrofluoric acid factories have a general start-up rate. The supply of goods in the field is sufficient, and the market price trend in the field is temporarily stable. Most downstream air-conditioning manufacturers enter the maintenance stage, and the demand for refrigerants is weak, which is not conducive to good support.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business Cooperative Refrigerant Analysts believe that the demand for refrigerant R134a is declining, the demand for refrigerant for air-conditioning manufacturers is decreasing, the cost of raw materials is difficult to form support, and the trend is expected to remain weak in the short term.

Price Trend

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fell this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4387.50 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the price of domestic first-class industrial potassium nitrate was 4362.50 yuan/ton, a decline of 0.57%, and the current price fell by 4.90% compared with last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic potassium nitrate Market Trading atmosphere is relatively cold, potassium nitrate manufacturers actively seek price changes, but not yet effective, potassium nitrate manufacturers operating rate is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, there is no sales pressure, the actual turnover is general, downstream purchasing is just in demand, basically not ready. Goods, potassium nitrate prices fell. Domestic potassium nitrate mainstream manufacturers offer 4200-4500 yuan/ton.

3. Future Market Forecast

The analyst of potassium nitrate of business association thinks that the market of potassium nitrate falls this week, the mentality of manufacturers is empty, the actual spot delivery is not good, the traditional peak season of “gold, nine silver and ten” has arrived, but it has not yet driven the price of potassium nitrate to rise, the market may be warming up after the festival, mainly by the demand-side-led price trend.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the price of zinc rose in September, and the zinc market showed a trend of stopping falling and rising again. As of September 9, the price of zinc was 19260.00 yuan/ton, up 1.23% from 19026.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and down 11.62% from the same period last year.

II. Market Trend Analysis

Zinc processing fee

Zinc processing fee is the fee charged by the smelter for processing and producing zinc concentrate into zinc ingot. It is the main source of income for the smelter, accounting for 70-80%. As can be seen from the above figure, the processing fee of domestic zinc is maintained at 6050-6600 yuan/metal ton, while that of imported zinc concentrate is 280 dollars/dry ton, which is much higher than that of previous years. Compared with zinc price, zinc processing fee accounts for 32.4%. High processing fee limits the falling space of zinc price. After zinc price, the falling space is limited and the rising pressure is increased.

Domestic Zinc Production
In 2019, the domestic zinc production increased substantially. From January to July, the domestic zinc production increased by 6.1%, the supply of zinc increased, and the price of zinc fell under pressure.

Downstream demand

Data from the National Bureau of Statistics show that real estate investment, sales, funds and other data show a downward trend from January to July. The sales area of commercial housing was 887.83 million square meters, down 1.3% from the same period last year; the area for sale of commercial housing was 498.76 million square meters, down 8.4% from the end of June; the sales area decreased for seven consecutive months, and the area for sale dropped 500 million square meters for the first time in six years. The decline of real estate sales data indicates that the demand for non-ferrous metals in the future of the real estate market is declining, the demand for zinc is declining, and the downward pressure of zinc price is increasing.

In July, China’s automobile sales fell by 2.6%, showing a drop from a positive growth of 17.2% to a decline of 2.6%. Automobile sales continued to decline, automotive industry demand for zinc ingots is expected to decline, after the market zinc price rise power is insufficient.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst with business associations, thinks that the processing cost of zinc concentrate remains high, the cost of zinc ingots is high, the price of zinc ingots in the future is limited, and the pressure of zinc price rising is increased; at the same time, because of the high processing cost of zinc, the output of zinc ingots is rising, and the supply of zinc in the market is increasing, which has a negative impact on zinc price. Sales of automobile industry declined, demand of zinc market was generally down, and supply of zinc was in excess of demand. In summary, the supply of zinc is in excess of demand, and there is downward pressure in zinc market. However, due to the high processing cost of zinc, the high cost of zinc ingots, the limited space for zinc price to fall, zinc price has a certain upward pressure. The future zinc market has mixed pros and cons. It is expected that zinc prices will fall into a state of sawing in the future, and zinc prices will remain stable.

Price trends:

According to the data monitoring of business associations, the execution quotation of Sinopec O-Benzene continued to rise in September. As of September 9, the executed contract price of o-xylene Sinopec was 6 300.00 yuan/ton, up 3.28% from 6 100.00 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. Prices fell 19.62% over the same period last year. Neighbouring benzene prices rose in September, neighbouring benzene up and down the market rose, neighbouring benzene Market in September is good.

II. Market analysis:

Product Analysis

In September, the external quotation of phenyl rose sharply. On September 6, the external quotation of China was $775/ton, which was $745/ton compared with last week’s quotation, and the price rose by $30/ton. In South Korea, the quotation of benzene in Southeast Asia increased by 30 US dollars per ton and 15 US dollars per ton. The price of imported phenyl rises, the price of port phenyl rises, the stock of port decreases, and the market of future phenyl is good. Yangtze Petrochemical’s benzol equipment overhaul, expected to stop for about 20 days; Luoyang Petrochemical equipment failure, suspended supply in September; Liaoyang Petrochemical’s benzol equipment start-up rate is low, Fuhai Chuang’s benzol equipment failed to start normal, the supply of o-xylene is insufficient, the shortage of o-xylene is serious, and the future market of o-benzene is favorable.

Factor Analysis of Industrial Chain

In September, the price of mixed xylene rose sharply, the price of raw materials rose sharply, the cost of o-benzene rose sharply, the market of o-benzene was good, and the price of o-benzene in the future had a greater driving force. Overall, the cost of o-phenyl rises, the output of o-phenyl decreases, and the future market is good for o-phenyl.

In September, the price of phthalic anhydride rose sharply, downstream demand rose, the demand gap for phthalic anhydride was large, the market was good, and the driving force of phthalic anhydride rose. As for plasticizers, DOP market has risen concussively, and there is still an upward momentum in the future. Overall, the downstream market of o-phenyl is good, and the upward momentum of o-phenyl is increased.

3. Future market forecast:

Bai Jiaxin, an analyst of business community’s o-xylene data, believes that in early September, due to safety considerations or equipment and process reasons, the number of overhauls increased, the supply of o-xylene was insufficient, and the serious shortage of o-xylene led to a sharp rise in the price of o-xylene, which led to a sharp rise in downstream prices. The price of phthalic anhydride rises by 10% a week, which is much higher than that of phthalic anhydride. This is mainly due to the serious shortage of phthalic anhydride in the market. Phthalic anhydride manufacturers have to purchase phthalic anhydride at high prices. The cost of phthalic anhydride manufacturers has risen sharply. The possibility of phthalic anhydride price falling in the future market is In the upstream of the industrial chain, the price of mixed xylene has risen sharply and the cost of o-benzene has increased, which is good for the market of o-benzene industrial chain. On the external market, the price of phenyl rose and rebounded. In September, the price of the external market stopped falling and rebounded. Later, the external market rose, which was good for domestic phenyl market. In summary, the price of raw materials in the upstream of phenyl rises, and the market of phenyl is good; the operating rate of phenyl equipment decreases, the supply of phenyl is short, and the market of phenyl is good; the demand of downstream phenyl rises, the market of phenyl is good, and the market of phenyl industry chain in general is good, and the price of phenyl in the future is strong.