Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the domestic pure benzene’s growth slowed down this week, rising by about 100 yuan/ton from last week. This week, the highest price of pure benzene appeared on Friday, with the price between 5250 and 5350 yuan/ton, an increase of 0.48% compared with last week.

II. Analytical Review

1. Products: This week’s rise in pure benzene slowed down. At the beginning of the week, the situation continued last week, and the domestic pure benzene market was boosted by the favorable factors of the continuous decline of port stocks and the continued rise of pure benzol US dollar plate. On Tuesday, the close of the benzo dollar market plunged and continued to fall, damaging the bullish mood of market participants. Due to the lower external market, the domestic market lacks the driving force for speculation.

2. Crude oil: Oil and gas production began to recover this week after the Gulf of Mexico storm, and oil prices began to retreat from last week’s rise. In addition, data released by EIA on Wednesday showed that although U.S. crude oil inventories declined for five consecutive weeks, the significant increase in refined oil inventories meant that demand slowed down and oil prices in Europe and the United States began to plunge. Brent oil prices fell nearly 9% compared with last week, and WTI oil prices fell about 8%.

3. Downstream: The price of styrene in the downstream of this week dropped by 3.35% compared with last week, which has little effect on the price of pure benzene. Downstream aniline rose by 3.01% from last week.

4. Outside: This week, the price of pure benzene in the United States dropped sharply, hitting the bullish mood of the market.

3. Future Market Forecast

1. Crude Oil: Next week, EIA lowered global crude oil demand expectations, market concerns about trade risks remain, coupled with poor performance of U.S. stocks, European and American crude oil may continue to decline.

2. Domestic market: Due to the continuous decline of the external market and the narrowing of the price gap between the internal and external markets, the domestic pure benzene market lacks the incentive to continue to speculate.

Considering comprehensively, the pure benzene market will run steadily next week.

Price data

According to the data of business associations, the domestic sulfur market price declined narrowly this week. At the beginning of the week, the average ex-factory price of granular sulfur was around 943.33 yuan/ton. At the end of the week, the average ex-factory price was about 900.00 yuan/ton. Within the week, it fell by 4.59%, down by 17.09% compared with the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the domestic sulphur market continued to be weak, the price trend was down, the contradiction between supply and demand in the market is still the same, there is no news guide inside and outside the market, there is a strong atmosphere of stalemate and wait-and-see, the enthusiasm of terminal purchasing is weak, refineries in various regions fell appropriately according to their own shipment situation within the week, by 20-70 yuan/ton. As of the 19th, the mainstream price of solid sulfur in Sinopec’s Shandong region was around 960-970 yuan/ton, while that of liquid sulfur was 770-820 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in North China was 750-820 yuan/ton, and that of liquid sulfur was 720-800 yuan/ton; that of solid sulfur in East China was 770-900 yuan/ton and that of liquid sulfur was 770-900 yuan/ton. The mainstream price is 770-850 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: This week, the price trend of sulfuric acid Market in Shandong province was slightly lower. The main stream of sulfuric acid negotiations were stable, and local flexible rises and falls. On the 19th, the main distribution price of sulphuric acid in Shandong fell slightly: Heze Jiangyuan quoted 230 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Jinan Yuanfei quoted 450 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable; Zouping Tianlu quoted 130 yuan/ton, the quotation slightly dropped by 20 yuan/ton; Dezhou Meihua quoted 170 yuan/ton, the quotation was temporarily stable. The sulphuric acid market has a cold trading atmosphere, the customers’enthusiasm for sulphuric acid purchasing is general, the market demand is weak, the merchants’ mentality is cautious, and the sulphuric acid ex-factory price in the future is low.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business sulfur analysts believe that the current sulfur market is still cold, the enthusiasm of on-site negotiations is weak, the atmosphere of stalemate and wait-and-see is strong, and it is expected that the short-term sulfur market will maintain a weak consolidation.

I. Market Review

According to statistics, this week’s domestic fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable, the weekend price is 3150 yuan / ton, which is equal to 3150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 16.88% year-on-year, and the recent fluorite price trend is stable.

II. Market Analysis

This week, domestic fluorite price trend is temporarily stable, the operating rate of fluorite plant has not changed much, but the downstream demand is normal, the spot supply of fluorite is general, the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Inner Mongolia is 2900-3100 yuan/ton by the end of the weekend, the mainstream of 97 fluorite wet powder in Fujian is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Henan is 97 yuan/ton. The price of 97 fluorite wet powder in Jiangxi is 3000-3300 yuan/ton, and the price trend of fluorite is temporarily stable. Fluorite farm started to maintain normal levels, recent downstream demand is normal, affected by many factors, fluorite price trend is stable.

Industry chain: The market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream fluorite is stable this week. The factory price of hydrofluoric acid is 12080 yuan/ton by the end of the week. Maintaining the market price of hydrofluoric acid in downstream is a good influence on the fluorite market, and the price trend of fluorite is stable. Recent downstream refrigerant trading market is general, downstream refrigerant product plant operating rate is not ideal, upstream fluorite and hydrofluoric acid demand is general, refrigerant market trading market is cold, R22 refrigerant plant surface operating situation is not high, R22 market device operating rate is low, the main production enterprise bulk water factory offer price is 18,000-18,500 yuan. / Between tons, but the production enterprises do not have bulk water spot, mainly a small number of cylinders shipped. In addition, the actual demand side of the market is low, and the shipping market trend is poor. The domestic market price of R134a has slightly declined, the start-up rate of production enterprises has not changed much, the market demand for refrigerants has weakened, and manufacturers mainly export their products. However, the on-site transaction price does not change much. Businessmen purchase on demand. Recently, due to the general downstream start-up situation, the upstream market demand for hydrofluoric acid is limited, and the price of fluorite market is stable.

Industry: This week, the upstream fluorite industry started construction in general, hydrofluoric acid price trend is stable, the spot supply of fluorite products is normal, fluorite market price trend is temporarily stable.

3. Future Market Forecast

In the future, domestic fluorite plants have started normal in the near future, the market price of downstream hydrofluoric acid industry is stable, and the market of downstream refrigeration industry is general. Chen Ling, a fluorite analyst from business associations, thinks that the manufacturers in the fluorite field reflect the normal supply of goods and expect the price to remain oscillating in the later period, or the price may be 3100-3200 yuan/ton.

Price Trend

Styrene prices fell this week. According to data from business associations, the prices of sample enterprises were 9016.67 yuan/ton on Monday (July 08), 8966.67 yuan/ton on Friday (July 12), a decline of 0.55%, and 19.73% compared with the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products:

This week, the market price of styrene is narrow and the market supply is general. On July 08, East China Styrene closed at 9000 yuan/ton, and on July 12, East China Styrene closed at 8900-9000 yuan/ton, down by about 100 yuan/ton. The above price is Zhangjiagang’s canning price. On July 08, South China Styrene closed at 9,200 yuan/ton for delivery, and on July 12, South China Styrene closed at 9,100 yuan/ton for delivery, down by 100 yuan/ton for delivery at above factories. The styrene market fluctuated narrowly. By Friday, the stock of East China’s styrene port declined, but the overall supply of styrene increased slightly. Overall, this week, it fell steadily and moderately.

Industry chain:

Upstream crude oil market strengthened this week, ethylene rose slightly, pure benzene rose sharply, styrene production cost support gradually improved. Downstream enterprises, temporarily maintaining just demand, wait-and-see majority, continue to bear the dual pressure of cost and terminal sales, start-up rate decline more or less, from the overall start-up rate level, still maintain low demand-oriented. The supply and demand deadlock is difficult to break, and the market lacks strong support.

3. Prospects for the Later Period

The periphery remained volatile this week, oil prices rose over the weekend, and the impact of the periphery on the petrochemical market was mostly negative. Domestic production enterprises have stabilized and have followed the market downward quotation operation. Businessmen in the market have increased their wait-and-see atmosphere and divergent market trends in different places. Styrene business analysts believe that in the current market conditions, upstream cost prices are temporarily stable, downstream terminal digestion pressure, receipt intention is weak, styrene support weakened, and market bearish sentiment spread. There is no strong support in the styrene market as a whole, and the price of styrene is expected to remain narrow next week.

Price Trend

The domestic ethanol market rose and fell unevenly this week. According to the monitoring data of business associations, the domestic ethanol market price at the beginning of the week was 5370 yuan/ton, which was 1.45% lower than the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week, the alcohol market has gone up and down differently. East China and Central China downward. Large factories in Northeast China mostly enter the inspection and repair, enterprises mostly take turns to repair, enterprise inventory is still acceptable, enterprise quotation performance is firm, downstream centralized procurement is basically over. Henan Province suffered from the impact of low-price goods in Northeast China, the price fell slightly; Sichuan enterprises quoted stable prices, large factories had maintenance plans at the end of the month, and short-term market prices remained firm; East China also suffered from the impact of low-price goods in Northeast China, the price of cassava continued to rise, enterprises in East China continued to reduce construction, and Su. With the passage of time, the amount of raw molasses in South China continues to decrease, enterprises are unwilling to sell low-end prices slightly increase, water-free sales in North China is still acceptable, and the Northeast general-grade supply will soon enter South China.

Industry chain: Upstream, the average weekly price of Maize in Jilin region of Northeast China closed at 1730 yuan/ton, down 0.28% from last week’s price. The price of dried cassava chips in upstream Thailand keeps rising, mainly due to the current season of fresh cassava production. Cassava enters the starch market more and dried chips export less. Up to now, FOB 235-240 US dollars/ton, theoretical port price in eastern China is 1900-1920 yuan/ton. Domestic enterprises are affected by weak downstream demand. Parking to avoid the market, raw material procurement is not good. Downstream, the price of ethyl acetate in East China rose by 2.62% on Thursday, 5,215 yuan per ton, compared with last week.

3. Future Market Forecast

Since this week, Northeast big factories have stepped into overhaul one after another. Supply reduction has boosted the market or reflected in the next week’s market. However, considering the current inventory situation and demand situation of liquor enterprises, there is little room for short-term pull-up operation, and the market is expected to remain stable. Under summer weather, terminal chemical enterprises are insufficient to enter the market, liquor is also in the off-season of sales, the demand for ethanol shows a downward trend, affecting the bidding sentiment of the operators. Ethanol analysts at business associations expect the domestic ethanol market to remain stable in the short term.

On July 12, 2019, the concept stocks of phosphorus chemical industry in the market were really excellent, with an average increase of 6.6%. Among them, Chengxing shares, six chemical companies rose and stopped, and other shares followed. Among them, Chengxing shares are already three contiguous boards, leading the board to become a hot spot in the market. In the current market which lacks the hot spots of rotation, the emergence of new concepts is often warmly sought after by the market.

The logic behind the concept of phosphorus chemical industry is simple and violent enough. That is the unprecedented surge in yellow phosphorus prices in the domestic market. According to the Wind database, yellow phosphorus prices were still 15,500 yuan per ton on Tuesday, but soared on Wednesday to 17,000 yuan per ton, and reached 20,000 yuan per ton on Thursday, yesterday. In just three days, the price of yellow phosphorus soared by 4,500 yuan per ton, up 29%.

Generally speaking, yellow phosphorus production does not have strong barriers, or even very simple. In short, we only need to put phosphate ore, silica and coke into the electric furnace in a certain proportion, decompose and reduce at 1000 degrees of high temperature, and then cool and rinse the phosphorus vapor and dust to get yellow phosphorus.

Through this production process, we can know that one of the main costs of yellow phosphorus production is electricity. The electricity consumption per ton of yellow phosphorus is about 15,000 degrees, and because of the low cost of hydropower, yellow phosphorus production prefers water and electricity. Therefore, the price of yellow phosphorus is generally affected by electricity and Hydropower charges, and there are seasonal fluctuations, such as the high water period in June-August, the low production cost of yellow phosphorus, the high start-up rate of enterprises, the increase of supply, and the price is relatively stable. Therefore, it is still early July, and the soaring price of yellow phosphorus in recent days is obviously not affected by the season.

As mentioned above, the production of yellow phosphorus likes to use water and electricity, so the producers of yellow phosphorus prefer to open their factories in areas with regional advantages, such as along rivers. Because along the river, there will be black-hearted businessmen in order to save money by secretly discharging production waste directly into the river. Recently, CCTV Focus Interview exposed the pollution problem of yellow phosphorus plants in the upper reaches of the Yangtze River. The tail gas from electric furnace of yellow phosphorus plants was directly discharged into the atmosphere, and wastewater containing phosphorus was discharged wantonly.

This is a big problem. According to Cao Liping, Director of the Bureau of Ecological Environment Law Enforcement, the Yangtze River Economic Zone concentrates most of China’s phosphorus chemical production capacity, and the regulation of “three phosphorus” is one of the most important elements in the battle of protecting and restoring the Yangtze River. The Ministry of Ecological Environment strives to find out the quantity of “three phosphorus” in two years and complete the environmental improvement of yellow phosphorus enterprises first this year.

We know that in Yunnan-Guichuan region of the Yangtze River Basin, the yellow phosphorus production capacity accounts for 90% of the country’s total.

Therefore, in the current state vigorously grasp the general trend of environmental protection, the irregular yellow phosphorus production enterprises directly hit the muzzle. Therefore, we can foresee that in the future, there will be a large number of irregular yellow phosphorus production enterprises will be shut down or rectified in the near future. At the same time, with the end of the flood season, supply will be further tightened. In addition, the current domestic market stock is not much, yellow phosphorus prices are bound to rise. Therefore, at present, many enterprises in production are reluctant to sell, so they will not report directly. And the quoted companies directly overwhelmed the price, so there is a two-day surge in yellow phosphorus prices.

For investment opportunities, if the price of yellow phosphorus is still in its current position or moving higher, then the most beneficial thing is to have a large amount of yellow phosphorus stocks, or enterprises whose production of yellow phosphorus is unaffected. In addition, the downstream of yellow phosphorus is mainly used for phosphoric acid, phosphate, red phosphorus, phosphorus trichloride, phosphorus pentosulfide and so on. Driven by the rising price of yellow phosphorus, it is expected to drive up the prices of organophosphorus herbicides such as glyphosate, glyphosate, phosphorus ammonium, and organophosphorus insecticides such as chlorpyrifos and trichlorfon. We can keep an eye on the subject matter.

In addition, other chemical products manufacturers with similar production modes as yellow phosphorus may face similar situations in the future, so we might as well study them in depth.

Price Trend

According to the data from the business associations’list, the price of domestic dry-process aluminium fluoride market rose this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 9,933 yuan/ton, and at the end of the week, it was 9,766 yuan/ton. The price was 1.71% higher than that of last week.

II. Market Analysis

Aluminum fluoride prices remained stable this week: at present, the price of aluminium fluoride in Henan is 9600-10200 yuan/ton, while that in Shandong is around 9500-10500 yuan/ton. Zhengzhou Zerun Energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 9500 yuan/ton for aluminium fluoride, Shandong Luzeng Chemical Co., Ltd. to 10800 yuan/ton for aluminium fluoride, Zhengzhou Zerun Energy and Chemical Co., Ltd. quoted 9800 yuan/ton for aluminium fluoride.

Industry Chain: Hydrofluoric acid price trend rose slightly this week. Enterprises reflect the current shortage of spot supply of hydrofluoric acid. Recently, the situation of on-site goods has improved. Some enterprises have low start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant, small rise in ex-factory price. Recent start-up rate of hydrofluoric acid plant is general, on-site supply is tight, and the current southern region. The main stream of regional hydrofluoric acid negotiations is 12000-12500 yuan/ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 11500-12500 yuan/ton. Recently, the price of domestic hydrofluoric acid market has risen slightly, while driving the price of downstream aluminum fluoride Market to rise.

3. Future Market Forecast

Aluminum fluoride industry analysts from the Business Society Chemical Branch believe that the price of hydrofluoric acid, the upstream raw material, continues to rise, and the price of Aluminum fluoride is expected to continue to rise next week.

Price trends:

II. Market analysis:

Domestic market: This week’s crude benzol Market offer rose sharply, the mainstream market offer in 3650-3910 yuan/ton, a high rise of 210 yuan/ton compared with the previous period. Mainly due to the rise of pure benzene external market, Sinopec’s listed price, downstream hydrobenzene quotation, the overall crude benzene industry chain is bullish, this week’s bidding price has risen sharply, coking enterprises are active in taking goods, price sentiment is obvious, favorable centralized release, downstream demand is good, replenishment is positive. In terms of supply, in recent years, the intensity of environmental protection inspection is relatively strong. Construction in Shandong is generally started at – 50% or so. In some areas of Shanxi, intermittent production restrictions are imposed, and the supply of crude benzene market is on the short side.

Industry Chain: Crude Oil: This week’s oil price shocks rose, compared with last week’s overall rise. US crude oil was close to $60 per barrel due to the sharp decline in US crude oil stocks and the negative impact of the decline in refined oil stocks. Pure benzene: Domestic pure benzene prices continued to rise this week. At the beginning of the week, the price of pure benzene rose 50-200 yuan for three consecutive days, sustained by the good downstream styrene market last week and the decline of pure benzene port stocks. Beginning on Thursday, as most contracts have been completed, the market is not hot to catch up with, the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong, and the pure benzene market recovers flat.

3. Trend forecast:

With the increase of summer temperature, the environmental protection situation will be more severe, and the crude benzene market will be on the tight side in the future. Although the prices of pure benzene, toluene and xylene have risen at present, the downstream cost pressure is still large, which will somewhat limit the increase of crude benzene. It is expected that the increase of crude benzene will be around 120-150 yuan/ton next week.

Price Trend

Domestic aggregated MDI market is in a dilemma. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, the average market price of aggregated MDI was 1230 yuan/ton at the beginning of this week, and 1240 yuan/ton at the weekend. The market price of aggregated MDI rose by 0.81% in a week, which was 33.57% lower than that of the same period last year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: This week aggregate MDI market prices fluctuate slightly, the overall temperature is not hot, there is no market value. This week’s supply side: Cosco announced that this week’s guidance price of 12,500 yuan/ton was stable compared with last week, and there was not much supply; Huntsman and Wanhua markets were informed of a 3% discount supply, and the supply was tightened; East Cao Ruian market was informed that the guidance price was not clear, spot was scarce; import spot supply was scarce recently. The overall supply side of the market is tightening. This week’s demand side: the downstream early inventory is sufficient, this week’s inquiry is not good, mainly small trading orders. In addition, recent environmental inspections have begun, which lasted from the end of June to the end of August. Strict inspection of foaming agents will correspondingly inhibit the market demand of rigid foams in northern China. Other industries are in the off-season of demand, and the actual market demand has not been boosted. Traders this week: market quotations are mostly stable, low-price shipments are not willing, but sells mainly.

On the market side, as of Friday (7.15), the aggregated MDI market in North China remained stable. Although the overall supply side of the supplier is tightened and the shipment pressure of the holder is not high, the market demand has been weak to follow up. In addition, the environmental protection inspection has restrained the hard bubble demand market in the north, and the market negotiation price has been slightly loosened. East China aggregates weak shocks in the MDI market. The downstream demand follow-up is weak, the main shipment is accompanied by the holder, the inquiries are scarce, and the confidence of the operators in the future market is insufficient. Consolidation of MDI market segments in South China. The market as a whole is still dominated by weaknesses, with the shipment of goods accompanied by the holder as the main factor, and the negotiation of actual orders as the main factor, with just a small order required.

Industry chain: raw materials, pure benzene: This week, the price of pure benzene has been rising rapidly. Data released earlier this month showed that in June, China imported only 20,000 tons of pure benzene from Korea, while in the first five months of 2019, the average monthly export volume from Korea to China was more than 150,000. Pure benzene from Korea generally accounts for more than half of China’s total imports. The main reason for the substantial reduction of Korean supply is that Chinese downstream factories concentrate on refusing orders from June to July in consideration of import costs. In addition, there is a supply gap of pure benzene in the United States, resulting in a huge price gap between the United States and South Korea, and a large number of Korean goods are diverted to the United States for arbitrage, resulting in a sharp drop in pure benzene exported to China. Aniline: Within a week, the aniline market rose steadily from north to south. In the North China market, the average tender price of Jinling pure benzene has increased by nearly 245 yuan/ton compared with last week, and the wide range of cost has increased, resulting in profit loss of aniline. However, downstream demand drags down the market obviously. North China’s enterprises are generally shipped, and their inventory remains high. North China market is weak, stable shipment to inventory within a week. In the East China market, the price of aniline in North China rose narrowly because of the strong support of cost and the low pressure of shipment from the East China entrepreneurs.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business community view: supplier manufacturers to force control goods, so that the end of the tour is not to force, buy goods sentiment is not good, traders follow the market, low price talks. Business Association aggregate MDI analysts predict that short-term domestic aggregate MDI market price range vulnerable shocks, small fluctuations.

Price Trend

According to the monitoring data of business associations, the recent market of n-propanol is mainly maintaining stable operation. At present, the ex-factory quotation of manufacturers in Nanjing is around 8,400 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of domestic n-propanol traders is around 9,900-11,500 yuan/ton (the price difference between different packaging specifications is large), which is slightly higher than that in mid-June. Mainstream quotation for n-propanol is around 1,1200-11,800 yuan/ton.

II. Market Analysis

Products: The overall trend of n-propanol market is stable. The acceptance quotation of n-propanol produced by Nanjing Rongxin Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8400 yuan/ton (bulk water). The export quotation of n-propanol from Zibo, Shandong Province, where Ningbo Haorui Supply Chain Company distributes, is 11000 yuan/ton (including tax barrels). The Taiwan import of Yexing Chemical Trade in Zhangjiagang is just right. The price of propanol is 10,200 yuan/ton (including tax barrels).

Industry chain: The market price of the upstream product propylene oxide has risen by 3.74% compared with last week. The cost pressure of propylene oxide manufacturers has increased sharply. Some factories have reduced the negative overhaul and the supply. The downstream performance is relatively calm, and purchasing is just needed.

3. Future Market Forecast

According to the business association’s forecast, the n-propanol market will run steadily in the short term.