As of September 6, the average price of mainstream refinery hydrotreated naphtha in China was 6065.00 yuan/ton, down 0.21% from 6077.50 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week. The actual transaction price of hydrotreated naphtha in China was about 6000 yuan/ton.
On September 6, the naphtha commodity index was 74.85, unchanged from yesterday, down 27.06% from the peak of 102.62 points in the cycle (2012-09-24), and up 77.20% from the low of 42.24 points on July 19, 2016. (Note: Period refers to 2012-09-01 to date)
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II. Analysis of Influencing Factors
Products: Refinery naphtha prices have remained stable this week, refinery inventory pressure is not high, and merchants are active in shipment.
Industry Chain: Upstream: According to the monitoring of business associations, WTI crude oil in the United States was $55.10 per barrel at the beginning of the week, and $56.30 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 2.18%; Brent crude oil was $60.43 per barrel at the beginning of the week and $60.95 per barrel at the end of the week, with a weekly increase and decrease of 0.86%. Tension of international trade relations, U.S. crude oil production and stock boost affect the trend of international crude oil. Downstream: Sinopec, PX manufacturer suppliers on demand. According to the business association monitoring, affected by the upstream crude oil rise, port inventory decline and market turnover improvement, the domestic toluene market overall trend this week is good, and the mainstream price in East China is currently around 6150-6200 yuan/ton. The xylene market has been moving well this week, with the mainstream price in East China at around 6,600 yuan/ton. The domestic market price trend of p-xylene was stable this week. The domestic PX start-up rate maintained more than 70%, and the weekend average price was 6,600 yuan/ton. This week, the inventory of pure benzene in East China fell again, and the supply of market resources was tight. At present, the domestic price of pure benzene is 5300-5550 yuan/ton.
Industry: According to the price monitoring of business associations, in the 35 th week (9.2-9.6) of 2019, there were 9 kinds of commodities rising in the energy sector, one of which rose more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; the first three commodities were dimethyl ether (5.56%), methanol (4.81%) and MTBE (4.43%). There are five kinds of commodities falling in the ring ratio. The first three products falling are coke (-3.74%), coking coal (-1.36%) and liquefied gas (-0.63%). This week’s average rise and fall was 1.05%.
3. Future Market Forecast
Energy analysts from business associations believe that this week’s rise in international oil prices has supported naphtha. Suppliers from Sinopec and PX production enterprises will be on demand to stock up. National Day is approaching, traffic will be regulated, and production will be limited in September. Some suppliers actively stock up. It is expected that the price of hydrotreated naphtha will rise slightly in the near future, with an average price range of 6000-6200 yuan/ton.