I. price trend

In this week’s (11.11-11.15), the domestic 1 × tin ingot market fell in shock. The average price in the domestic market was 137700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 135512.50 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 1.59%.

On November 15, the tin commodity index was 69.03, up 0.08 points from yesterday, down 31.14% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 61.06% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market trend analysis

Domestic market: this week, the overall trend of Lunxi declined. On Friday, the pressure fell again. As of 17:15, the latest price of Lunxi was $16180 / ton. In the week, it dropped 595 US dollars / ton, or 3.55%, with 1676 transactions and 17797 positions, up 182. In terms of Shanghai tin, the main 2001 contract of Shanghai tin fell this week. On Friday, Shanghai tin generally remained weak and volatile. The closing price of Shanghai tin on Friday was 134490 yuan / ton, down 2690 yuan / ton in the week, down 1.96%, with volume of 121000 hands, position of 40004 hands, up 1824 hands. Spot market: as of Friday, the spot price was 134500-136000 yuan / ton, 2250 yuan / ton lower than 136500-138500 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. In terms of market transactions, the number of bottom finding transactions increased this week, while transactions in East China were OK. For the Shanghai tin 2001 contract, Yunxi’s premium is 1200-1500 yuan / ton, ordinary Yunzi’s premium is 400-600 yuan / ton and small brand’s premium is 200-300 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: this week’s data in Europe and the United States was lower than expected, the U.S. dollar index was high and volatile, and basic metals fell across the board under the pressure of short return.

III. future prospects

Next week, the US data is expected to be moderate, and the US dollar is expected to fall back at a high level. The domestic metal market will attract long-term delivery of spot goods. Under the condition of loose capital, support for base metal repair fell sharply this week, and some metal items that can be supported by the fundamentals are expected to recover. It is expected that the spot tin market will continue to maintain a volatile pattern and the material center of gravity will move up.

Trade name: phenol

East China market (November 11): 7050 yuan / ton

Trend chart of domestic phenol Market Price

Analysis: phenol Market is still depressed in the new week, and the whole market is weak. Downstream terminals participate in the purchase and demand, offer intention is low-end, the whole market negotiation is cold, the confidence of traders is insufficient, the focus is narrow and loose, and the trading is poor. At present, the focus is on the dynamics of petrochemical manufacturers. It is expected that the domestic phenol market will continue to be weak today, and the negotiation range of the phenol Market in East China is 7000-7050 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of phenol in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 7050-50

Shandong area 7300

Surrounding area of Yanshan 7200

South China 7450 0

 
Trade name: acetone

Market price (November 11, East China): 4800 yuan / ton

Key points of analysis: in the new week, the acetone market is still hot, the market is running at a high level, the supply of goods in Shandong is tense, and the offer is reduced; Yangzhou Shiyou no.6 is parked, and the shipment is suspended at present; the port inventory has dropped to a new low within the year, the spot resource supply in the field is tight, the sentiment of holding the firm price of goods is strong, some traders enter the market to replenish goods, and support the high-level negotiation in the market. The business community expects that today’s Acetone Market The high level continued, and the negotiation range of East China market was about 4850 yuan / ton.

Up to now, the offer of acetone in various markets in China is as follows:

Rise and fall of regional quotation

East China 4800 + 100

Shandong area 4800 + 50

Surrounding area of Yanshan Mountain 4700

4850 + 50 in South China

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province was temporarily stable this week. The quotation is 306.67 yuan / ton, down 44.99% year on year. Overall, sulfuric acid was temporarily stable this week, with a commodity index of 47.73 on November 8

II. Market analysis

(I) products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong is temporarily stable, with small inventory and general downstream demand. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 320 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 150 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable compared with the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

(II) industrial chain:

In the near future, the domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable. The trading atmosphere in the downstream monoammonium market is not good, the trading volume is light, and the trading volume of new orders is not ideal. The market of diammonium is also low and consolidated, and the downstream demand is less. Sulfuric acid enterprises often issue early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and the supply is slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

III. future forecast

After the adjustment in October, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price is temporarily stable, and the downstream construction is generally started, and the product trend tends to be stable under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business association sulfuric acid, under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials, the sulfuric acid market tends to be flat.

I. price trend

Market analysis of potash products

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of potash fluctuated and fell this week. At the beginning of this week, the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China was 6437.50 yuan / ton, while the average factory price including tax of the mainstream light potash in China at the weekend was 6425.00 yuan / ton, down 0.19%, and the current price was 7.05% lower than that of last year.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: this week, the market of potash fluctuated and fell. The market of potash in the golden nine silver ten middle schools has been stable. In November, the price of potash could not maintain a small decline. The market trading atmosphere is relatively cold, while the demand side maintains rigid purchase, resulting in the price of potassium nitrate shock and consolidation. At the same time, the plant operating rate of the manufacturer is at a low level, the overall inventory is at a low level, the purchasing market momentum is general, and the domestic potassium carbonate market fluctuates and falls. According to the statistics of business agency: in November, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate is about 6200-6500 yuan / ton (the quotation is only for reference), and the quotation varies according to the purchase situation.

III. future forecast

Potash analysts of the business association believe that this week’s potash market fell in shock, the trading atmosphere of potash fertilizer market was cold, downstream demand did not improve temporarily, the situation of market supply exceeding demand is difficult to improve, and the transaction is difficult. In the short term, the price of potash may be mainly consolidation, and the long-term market still needs to wait and see

I. price trend

In October 2019, the domestic market of 1 × 1 tin ingot rose and fell. The average price of domestic market at the beginning of the month was 135712.50 yuan / ton, and at the end of the month was 138262.50 yuan / ton, up 1.88%.

On October 31, the tin commodity index was 70.43, down 0.13 points from yesterday, down 29.75% from the cycle’s highest point of 100.25 (2011-09-05), and up 64.33% from the lowest point of 42.86 on December 9, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now).

II. Market analysis

Domestic market: this month, Lunxi and Huxi hit high and fell back. Lunxi rebounded to 17240 from the lowest point of 15850 on September 30. In the late ten days, Lunxi maintained a shock pattern in the first line of 16750, and fell at the end of the month. The overall trend of Shanghai tin is stronger than that of Lunxi. This month, it rebounded to 141790 from 133260, the lowest point, and then entered 138500. In October, there were frequent news of production reduction in domestic and foreign tin industry, which stimulated the strong upward trend of tin price in the first half of the month. However, the downward trend of domestic and foreign economy led to sluggish demand, further upward trend of tin price was blocked, and this month, the tin price rose and fell. As of the end of the month, the spot price of Shanghai tin was 136500-138500 yuan / ton. The manufacturer’s quotation was firm, but the transaction was not ideal. Some traders and downstream suppliers had replenishment, and the market purchase volume was relatively small. As of the end of the month, the premium of Yunxi in Shanghai phase tin 2001 contract is 700-1000 yuan / ton, that of ordinary Yunzi is 200-200 yuan / ton, and that of small brand is 400-800 yuan / ton.

Industry: this week, before and after the Federal Reserve’s interest rate meeting, the US dollar index continued to decline, but a series of domestic and foreign economic data were weak after the interest rate cut as scheduled, which led to concerns about the continued weakness of the future macro-economy. After this week, the US Congress officially launched the impeachment procedure for trump, and the base metal showed a trend of “first, then the second”.

Import and export: Indonesia’s refined tin exports fell 41% year on year in September, according to data released by the Ministry of trade on October 11. According to data, Indonesia’s refined tin exports last month were 5225.26 tons, down from 8854.30 tons in the same period last year. On a monthly basis, refined tin exports in September fell 5% from the previous month.

According to the data released by the world Bureau of Metal Statistics (WBMs) on October 16, the supply gap of the global tin market from January to August 2019 was 5600 tons. Total reported inventory is 7100 tonnes higher than at the end of 2018, but this includes 6000 tonnes of Indonesia’s unexplained increase in inventory. From January to August 2019, the global refined tin production increased by 6000 tons compared with the same period last year. Asian production increased 5900 tons year on year. China’s apparent demand increased by 8% year on year. From January to August 2019, the global tin demand is 254400 tons, an increase of 1.8% over the same period last year. Japan’s consumption was 18400 tons, down 3.1% from the same period last year. In August 2019, the refined tin output is 32000 tons, and the consumption is 31800 tons.

According to data released by the Beijing Branch of the international tin Association, China’s refined tin production in the first half of 2019 decreased by about 10% year-on-year to about 75000 tons. According to ITA’s survey of 15 refineries in China, the output of refined tin in June was about 12500 tons, down 9% month on month and year-on-year. China is the number one tin producer. Cui Lin, ITA’s chief representative for China, said the decline in refined tin production was due to the reduced supply of tin concentrate in Myanmar and weak demand in China. So far at the beginning of the year, the price of tin in Shanghai has dropped nearly 8% to about 134000 yuan per ton. Cui said prices below the 140000 yuan mark would affect production because of the high cost of ore supply in Myanmar.

III. future prospects

Next week’s economic data is still concentrated. In addition to the employment data, there are PMI data from various countries. It’s hard to be optimistic about the expected value, and there’s no room for a sharp rise in the low dollar index recovery. However, the worry about economic fatigue still makes the bullies of various metals afraid. If the market shows a correction, it may increase the willingness of downstream consumers to buy into the market. In November, the market will be closed The atmosphere will be much better than this week.

Price trend of spot precious metals

In October, the precious metal price fluctuated at a high level and maintained stable operation. Based on the beginning of the month, the price amplitude of precious metal gold in the month was 2.52%, and that of silver in the month was 3.17%.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, on October 31, the average spot price of domestic gold was 340.40 yuan / g, and at the beginning of the month, the spot price of gold was 343.04 yuan / g, a decrease of 0.77%; compared with the monthly peak (October 9), the spot price of gold was 347.60 yuan / g, a decrease of 2.07%; compared with the monthly trough (October 13), the spot price of gold was 338.97 yuan / g, an increase of 0.42%; compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of gold was 284.10 yuan/ Gram, up 19.82%.

On October 31, the spot price of domestic silver was 4341 yuan / kg, an increase of 1.92% compared with the spot price of silver at the beginning of the month (4259.33 yuan / kg); on October 28, it was 4376 yuan / kg, a decrease of 0.80%, and on October 17, it was 4241 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.36%; on October 1, it was 3617.67 yuan / kg, an increase of 19.99%.

Uncertainty abates risk aversion eases

1. The trade relationship between China and the United States slows down

The Sino US economic and trade team has maintained close communication, and the consultations are progressing smoothly. In the 13th round of high-level consultations concluded not long ago, the two sides made substantial progress in some agreement consultations. On October 25, the leaders of the two sides made a call, agreed to pro

2. Monetary policy easing expected to be realized in advance

From August to September, the market had a strong expectation of monetary policy easing and high risk aversion, which was transmitted to precious metal prices in advance. At present, the expectation is gradually fulfilled, and the market reaction is dull.

News of interest rate cut within the month:

The U.S. Federal Reserve announced its third annual rate cut Wednesday, cutting the federal funds rate by 25 basis points, the target range of the federal funds rate to 1.50% – 1.75%, the excess reserve rate (Ioer) to 1.55% (previously 1.80%), and the discount rate by 25 basis points to 2.25%.

After the Federal Reserve announced the interest rate cut, there are currently five central banks to cut interest rates, they are:

Brazil’s central bank cut interest rates by 50 basis points to 5%, the third rate cut in the year.

The Saudi central bank cut the repo rate from 250bps to 225bps and the reverse repo rate from 200bps to 175bps.

The Bank of Bahrain cut the overnight deposit rate from 2.25% to 2%, and the Bank of Bahrain cut the one month deposit rate from 2.85% to 2.6%.

In addition, the central banks of Kuwait and the United Arab Emirates have also cut interest rates.

I. price trend

According to the data monitored by the business agency, the price of domestic potassium nitrate fluctuated and consolidated this week. The price of domestic industrial grade first-class potassium nitrate in this week was 4362.50 yuan / ton, and the current price was 1.97% lower than last year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the domestic potassium nitrate Market is in shock and consolidation this week. It has entered the second half of October. The potassium fertilizer market still continues the price during the National Day holiday. The market trading atmosphere is relatively light. The downstream maintains rigid purchase, is in a stable consumption period, and the supply and demand are relatively stable. The market is in consolidation state. As a whole, the operating rate of potassium nitrate manufacturers is at a low level, so the overall inventory of potassium nitrate is at a low level, and there is no sales pressure for the time being. The downstream purchase volume is on the low side and a small amount of replenishment, basically there is no stock up situation, and the price of potassium nitrate remains volatile and consolidated. Domestic mainstream manufacturers of potassium nitrate offer 4200-4500 yuan / ton.

III. future forecast

Potassium nitrate analysts of the business association think: this week, the market of potassium nitrate is volatile and consolidated. The traditional October peak season of the golden nine silver ten seems to forget the potash industry. The potash market has always been tepid and tepid, and the downstream demand has not improved for the time being. It is expected that the demand of potassium nitrate will not be greatly improved in the short term, and the market may be consolidated and operated.

I. market price trend chart of polyformaldehyde

Price curve of POM

(photo source: Commodity analysis system of Business Club)

According to the monitoring of business association, on October 28, the average price of polyformaldehyde (96) in Shandong Province was 4783 yuan / ton, which was stable.

II. Market analysis

Products: Shandong aldehyde Chemical Industry Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 30000 tons of polyoxymethylene. The factory quotation of Polyoxymethylene (96) is 4650 yuan / ton, including tax. The quotation is stable. Linyi Shengyang Chemical Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 9000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 4700 yuan / ton, which is stable. Zibo Qixing Chemical Technology Co., Ltd. has an annual output of 10000 tons of POM, and the ex factory quotation of POM (96) is 5000 yuan / ton, including tax; the manufacturer’s quotation continues to be stable, and the downstream resin and pesticide demand is low.

Industry chain: upstream methanol situation. In the week of October 21, the domestic methanol market was in a “dive”. As of October 25, the average price of domestic methanol market was 2100 yuan / ton, down 10.64% in the week. Prices fell 4.89% month on month and 34.38% year on year.

III. future forecast

The price of raw material methanol dropped sharply, the market demand for POM was weak, and the POM analysts of the business club thought that the price of POM was weak in the future.

I. market trend:

According to statistics, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has continued to fall since late September. As of the 25th, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China was 6550 yuan / ton, down 9.03%, down 19.63% year on year. About 6400-6600 yuan / ton of phthalic anhydride in Shandong Province, 6500-6700 yuan / ton of phthalic anhydride is the mainstream of phthalic anhydride negotiation in Jiangsu Province. There is sufficient spot supply in the market. The manufacturers report that the recent delivery situation is not good, and the price of phthalic anhydride continues to fall.

II. Market analysis:

Product: in the near future, the market price of phthalic anhydride in China has been greatly reduced. The plant in the field has been restarted. The operating rate of phthalic anhydride in the field is more than 60%. The spot supply is normal. Some manufacturers report that the recent delivery is not good. The inventory of manufacturers has increased compared with the previous period, and the market price of phthalic anhydride has continued to fall. In the near future, the price of upstream raw material phthalic acid market is mainly fluctuating, the price of port phthalic acid remains low, there is still equipment maintenance in the phthalic acid plant, and the price of phthalic anhydride market is slightly reduced; the downstream plant still maintains rigid purchase, the main flow of on-site phthalic acid source negotiation is 6500-6700 yuan / ton, the main flow of naphthalene method source negotiation is 5900-6100 yuan / ton; the main flow of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 6400-6600 yuan/ Tons, the market price continued to decline, the quotation of some enterprises in North China fell, the downstream construction was general, the purchase was mainly on demand, the wait-and-see mentality was strong, the domestic phthalic anhydride delivery situation was poor, the manufacturer’s inventory increased, high-end transactions were blocked, and the phthalic anhydride price continued to fall.

Upstream: the execution price of domestic ortho benzene Sinopec of upstream products is 6700 yuan / ton. Due to the restart of maintenance devices of some domestic ortho benzene manufacturers, the supply of goods inside the site has increased, the market of imported ortho benzene in the port area has declined, and the quotation has declined. Recently, the market of ortho benzene in the port has declined, the inventory of the port is low, and the quotation of the external ortho benzene market has fallen in shock. The actual transaction price is subject to negotiation, which is discussed in detail. The price trend of phthalic anhydride market continued to decline.

Downstream: lower downstream DOP price, lower isooctanol price and lower DOP cost. The price of DOP has declined, the downstream demand of DOP is average, the purchasing enthusiasm of customers is average, the downstream PVC market is fluctuating and declining, the high-end transaction of DOP is blocked, the mainstream transaction price of DOP market is 7400-7700 yuan / ton, the downstream price of terminal has declined, the demand is bad for domestic phthalic anhydride market, and the price of phthalic anhydride market has declined slightly.

3. Future forecast:

At present, the price trend of upstream phthalic acid fluctuates at a low level, the terminal demand decreases, the DOP price has a downward trend, and the on-site favorable support is insufficient. The phthalic anhydride analyst of the business agency thinks that the market price of phthalic anhydride may be slightly lower, with the price around 6400 yuan / ton.

I. price trend

According to the data of business agency, the average ex factory listing price of oil-based glycol in North China on October 18 was 5100 yuan / ton, down 2.55% from the same period last week.

This week, the price of ethylene glycol single tank in East China continued to decline, from 4845 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 4605 yuan / ton at the end of the week, down 5.21%

II. Analysis of influencing factors

As of October 15, the operation rate of domestic non coal to ethylene glycol unit is about 63.54%, and that of coal to ethylene glycol unit is 65.18%, which is the same as that of September.

As of Thursday, the main port of East China’s glycol port inventory was about 516000 tons, down 6.1% from the beginning of the week, with obvious de inventory. The average daily shipment volume of the main port terminal reached 117500 tons.

Next week, glycol is expected to arrive at 234000 tons, and the inventory pressure will increase again.

III. future forecast

According to glycol analysts of business club, although polyester market has improved after the festival, the inventory base is large and the demand for glycol is not high. At present, the price of glycol is basically below the cost line, and the market atmosphere is low. Glycol prices will be hard to recover in the short term, but because they are already at a low level, a sharp decline should also be expected.