Commodity index: on November 29, the commodity index of polyaluminium chloride was 105.41, unchanged from yesterday, 3.30% lower than the highest point of 109.01 (2019-08-28) in the cycle, and 4.47% higher than the lowest point of 100.90 on April 09, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-04-01 till now)
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Price quotation: for the main monitoring manufacturers of the business association, the main quotation of domestic polyaluminium chloride Market on July 1 is about 1950 yuan / ton. In the second half of 2019, after the high price caused by the shutdown from August to October, the current price has returned to 1950 yuan / ton on July 1. In five months, the lowest price is 1916.67 yuan / ton on July 20, and the highest price is 2016.67 yuan/ Tons, with a maximum amplitude of 5.22%. According to the monitoring data of the commodity by the business agency (100ppi. Com), the main quotation range of the domestic market of polyaluminium chloride mainly focuses on: the quotation with tax of 1800-2200 yuan / ton for polyaluminium chloride solid (industrial level, content ≥ 28%), and 390-450 yuan / ton for liquid (industrial level, content 10% – 12%).
Industrial chain: in the five months from July to November, when the manufacturer’s operating rate is high, production is normal, goods volume is sufficient and demand growth is stable, the supply is surplus and the price is down; in the middle of August, due to the influence of environmental protection and other factors, the manufacturer’s starting is limited, the supply of goods is reduced and the price is up, which continues until the late September. After the National Day in October, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers returned to normal, and the supply of goods was relatively stable. In general, in addition to the sharp rise of polyaluminium price caused by the shutdown in the third quarter, the price of polyaluminium chloride decreased slightly in the fourth quarter, and the trend in November was similar to the extended version of “Z”. Among the upstream raw materials of polyaluminium chloride, the hydrochloric acid in North China monitored by the business agency rose by more than 100 yuan / ton in November due to the rise of upstream liquid chlorine and the difficulty in handling the transportation certificate. The quotation on November 1 was 173.33 yuan / ton, and rose to 290 yuan / ton on November 10. Downstream demand is stable this month, and the volume is sufficient.
Industry: since the end of July, this round of intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and the manufacturers have started to resume production. This round of shutdown cycle returns: 1. In late July, recently, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises in Yong’an Road sub district office of Gongyi City, Henan Province received the notice of shutdown, which requires that: Based on the analysis of the city’s environmental pollution and future pollution weather, the Municipal Office of tackling key problems requires all the depth The management enterprises will stop production and management before acceptance, and can resume production after dispatching or acceptance according to the key work office. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. 3. After the National Games on September 8, the local manufacturers did not receive the notice of commencement immediately, and the strict inspection of environmental protection was in progress. In late September, local manufacturers in Gongyi began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal.
Future market forecast: according to the analysis of the business agency, in November, the production of polyaluminium chloride manufacturers was normal, the market supply was large, and the market price of polyaluminium chloride was stable and slightly decreased. The environmental protection inspection is relatively strict, and occasionally the production is stopped for a short time, but the production is not affected as a whole, the supply of goods is sufficient, and the possibility of a sharp rise in the future market price is unlikely, as well as the possibility of a sharp fall, which is still stable with small fluctuations.