I. price trend

According to the data in the business club’s bulk list, affected by the weakening downstream demand and shrinking turnover, the domestic isomeric xylene market showed a correction trend this week, with a weekly decline of about 5.3%.

II. Analysis and comment

1. Products: affected by the weak global economic indicators and the general correction of bulk commodities, the domestic isomeric xylene market continued to pull back the downward trend this week. At present, the mainstream price in East China is around 5850-5950 yuan / ton. According to the feedback from traders, last week’s trading volume continued to shrink, and the port inventory remained low, about 28000 tons.

2. Industrial chain:

Upstream, in terms of crude oil, this week’s oil prices were mixed, with spot Brent down 0.79%, Brent futures down 0.62%, WTI futures up 1.09% and Dubai futures up 0.77%.

Downstream, PX market, domestic PX price trend is stable, it is expected that the short-term PX market price will maintain a stable trend. In terms of PTA market, this week’s price trend is stable, CFR China is about $625 / ton, which is expected to maintain a stable and volatile trend in the short term due to the weak downstream demand. As for the ox market, the upstream and downstream market fell, and the overall ortho benzene market was both positive and negative. The rising power of the future ortho benzene price weakened, and the downward pressure increased. It is expected that the future ortho benzene market will be weak and stable.

III. future forecast

According to xylene analysts from the chemical branch of Business News Agency: next week, we will continue to focus on the trend of the situation in the Middle East, the progress of Sino US trade negotiations, and the expected fluctuation of crude oil demand due to the weak prospect of global economic indicators. Due to the expected arrival of large quantities of xylene at the end of the month, traders are cautious at present. On the whole, it is expected that the toluene market will continue to fluctuate and adjust next Tuesday.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the ex factory price of domestic refrigerant R134a is temporarily stable this week. On October 14, the average ex factory price of mainstream manufacturers was 23833.33 yuan / ton, and the average price of weekend (18 days) was 23833.33 yuan / ton. This week’s market is weak and stable, down 18.75% year-on-year.

II. Market analysis

Product: the market price of R134a in refrigerant market this week is temporarily stable, the price of hydrofluoric acid in upstream is weak and consolidated, the cost support for refrigerant is weakened, and the pessimistic atmosphere is meditated in the field. At present, the macro-economic downturn, the development of the automobile industry is not optimistic, the demand for refrigerant R134a is flat, and the downstream traders are cautious. Most of them take the goods on demand to avoid overstocking. At present, the start-up of refrigerant R134a unit is low and the trend is weak. As of October 18, R134a of Zhejiang Juhua Co., Ltd. has quoted 26000 yuan / ton, R134a of Quzhou Jiuzhou Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 22500 yuan / ton, R134a of Zhejiang lengwang technology has quoted 23000 yuan / ton, R134a of Yuemei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 25000 yuan / ton, R134a of Longxun trade has quoted 23500 yuan / ton, R134a of Yumei Chemical Co., Ltd. has quoted 27000 yuan / ton, and R134a of blue planet has quoted 25000 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the price trend of upstream products in domestic hydrofluoric acid market is temporarily stable. At present, the mainstream of hydrofluoric acid negotiation in South China is about 9000-9500 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in North China is 9000-10000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level, the supply of spot goods is sufficient, but the demand is poor, and the market price of hydrofluoric acid maintains a low level of volatility. Downstream major air-conditioning manufacturers have stepped out of the maintenance period one after another, the output of the automobile industry is flat, the demand for refrigerant R134a is not high, and there is no good support.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 41st week of 2019 (10.14-10.18), there are 14 kinds of commodities in the chemical industry sector, including 4 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are DMF (12.00%), hydrogen peroxide (11.62%) and sulfur (5.32%). There are 38 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 8 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 9.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three products falling are butadiene (- 9.07%), phenol (- 7.16%) and isopropanol (- 6.22%). This week’s average was – 0.76%.

III. future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business agency, at present, the refrigerant R134a domestic market is weak, the transaction environment continues to be depressed, and the export market is still very flat. Overall, the market trading is relatively weak, and it is expected that the R134a market will be weaker in the short term.

I. price trend of acrylic acid:

The average price of acrylic acid as of October 18 was 7700 yuan / ton, the same as that at the beginning of the week, and the market remained stable, according to the data in the bulk list of business agencies. On the 18th, the main price of acrylic acid in China was 7500-7900 yuan / ton.

II. Market analysis:

Product: acrylic market is stable this week. This week, acrylic acid market performance is light, supply side is sufficient, but demand side consumption is general, terminal market is weak. As of August 18, the price of acrylic acid of Shandong Yukang Chemical Co., Ltd. has been temporarily stable, with 8200 yuan / ton of common acid and 8850 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is actually discussed. The price of acrylic acid of Jinan aochen Chemical Co., Ltd. is 8200 yuan / ton of common acid and 9400 yuan / ton of refined acid. The specific transaction price is actually discussed. The price of acrylic acid of Wanhua chemical and Petrochemical Co., Ltd. has remained stable, mainly for contracts and stable customers. At present, acrylic acid The price is 7500 yuan / ton.

Industry chain: the market price (10.14-10.18) of the upstream propylene in Shandong fell slightly this week, down 1.10%. At the beginning of October, it was the National Day holiday. Due to the impact of the policy of limiting production and operation, the price of propylene remained stable during the holiday, with occasional downward trend. After the end of the policy, most of the initial prices remained stable. On the 10th and 11th, the prices of the enterprises rose. On the 12th, the prices stabilized. On the 13th, 14th and 15th, they all rose slightly. On the 16th, they were stable. On the 17th, most of the enterprises began to decline. On the 18th, they continued to decline by 50 yuan / ton. At present, the market turnover is about 7380-7700 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price is 7400 yuan / ton. The demand for acrylic acid downstream market is weak, and the inquiry for acrylic acid entering the market is just needed, the purchase is limited, and the wait-and-see atmosphere is strong.

3. Future forecast:

According to acrylic analysts of business club, the raw material propylene is slightly down, the cost support surface of acrylic acid is weakened, and the downstream market demand is weak, and the market inquiry volume is small. It is expected that in the short term, the acrylic acid market will be dominated by weak operation.

I. price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the asphalt market price is stable this week, and the asphalt price is reported to close at 3654 yuan / ton, 0.22% lower than last week’s Asphalt price.

II. Analysis of influencing factors

Product: after the National Day holiday, the asphalt market demand did not improve significantly, and the international oil price fluctuated downward, and the asphalt market price continued to bear pressure.

Industry chain: this week, the international crude oil market has been negative news, and the overall price of crude oil has declined. According to official Saudi news, the country’s crude oil has returned to the level of production before the attack; the international energy agency lowered its forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 and 2020; the EIA inventory data of the United States was again negative, with both crude oil inventory and production showing an increase; the weak global economic performance limited the rise of international oil prices.

In terms of asphalt Market: after the National Day holiday, the demand of asphalt Market in the North has not changed significantly, and the crude oil price has been continuously lower, which makes the asphalt market price bear a downward trend, and the asphalt price of some refineries has been slightly reduced after the festival. The market demand in East China continued the strong situation before the festival, but the shipment of Sinopec and PetroChina refineries was affected to some extent during the national day, and the inventory of refineries increased significantly. At present, the resources of South China and Northeast China still continue to flow into East China. The market demand in South China and southwest China is average. After the national day, the market demand did not show a strong situation, the short-term asphalt market demand performance is hard to be optimistic.

III. future forecast

Lu Xingjun, an asphalt analyst with business club, believes that: the international crude oil price has fallen in shock, and there is no large-scale rush period after the National Day holiday. In addition to the better performance in East China, asphalt prices in other regions are expected to decline steadily.

Price Trend

The domestic BDO market fluctuates narrowly and the market atmosphere rises. According to the sample data monitored by business associations, as of October 12, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9520 yuan/ton, rising by 2.59% annually and falling by 14.07% year on year.

II. Market Analysis

Products: Domestic BDO market is tidied up and operated, the inventory of production enterprises is low, the stock intention of manufacturers is strong, the low-end supply is rarely heard, downstream purchasing is mostly maintained long-term follow-up, traders follow the market, the future market pays attention to the plant dynamics, and the BDO market is expected to reorganize and operate in the future.

On the market side, the BDO market in East China has been reorganized and operated, the reference quotation for bulk water supply is 8700-9200 yuan/ton, the barreled part of the market is 9600-10000 yuan/ton, the supply in the market is on the tight side, the stockpile of manufacturers is strong, the low-end supply is reduced, the downstream is more likely to maintain a long contract, some small orders follow-up, the traders will ship on the market, and the future market will pay attention to the plant equipment news. South China BDO market reorganization operation, bulk water quotation reference 8700-9200 yuan/ton, market barrel part of small orders 9600-10000 yuan/ton, some manufacturers inventory is low, spot tension, downstream purchasing more to maintain a long contract, traders offer temporarily stable, some small orders to discuss high-end, the market needs to pay attention to plant news.

Industry chain: raw materials, methanol: northwest methanol midwifery industry wait and see, mainly consolidation; Bohai Rim region turnover is weak, cautious; Huaihai methanol market delivery is poor, partial loosening; Central China region delivery is poor, partial downward; lack of futures under the guidance of port spot consolidation. Some installations in Northwest China will be planned to be repaired soon, and prices will be sorted out at a high level in anticipation of reduced supply. However, delivery in some areas such as southern Shandong and Henan provinces will continue to be light, and shipments will be poor, and manufacturers’prices will turn downward. However, traders in many cities have loosened their minds and prices continue to fall slightly. On the port side, there is a lack of guidance on futures prices. Prices in spot market are mainly consolidated and shipments are stable.

Calcium carbide: Calcium carbide market shows a downward trend. Market demand performance is general, for the lack of calcium carbide support, production enterprises increase the pressure of shipment, inventory increase. The trading atmosphere in the market is light. It is expected that the price of calcium carbide will be stable in the near future, and some prices will still fall.

3. Future Market Forecast

Some manufacturers have low inventories, few low-end goods in the market, traders follow the market, downstream to maintain just a long contract, some small orders follow-up, the future focus on plant plant dynamics, BDO business analysts predict that the domestic market for BDO is narrow collation.

Commodity index: On October 11, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 99.80, which was the same as yesterday. It was 6.84% lower than the peak of 107.13 points in the cycle (2019-05-08), and 4.26% higher than the low of 95.72 points on April 10, 2019. (Note: Period refers to 2019-04-01 to date)

Price quotation: The monitoring data of business association (100ppi.com) show that on October 1st, the mainstream quotation of polyacrylamide (cationic) market is about 16333.33 yuan/ton, and on December 12th, the mainstream quotation is about 16333.33 yuan/ton. The mainstream quotation of the market is stable in the early part of this month. At present, the main quotation range of domestic market of polyacrylamide is: cationic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 16200-18100 yuan/ton, anionic (PAM, molecular weight 12 million) quotation is about 10000-12100 yuan/ton.

Industry chain: It is understood that the price of acrylonitrile in the upper reaches of the market in early October has been lowered from about 1250 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month to about 11500 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month and 900 yuan/ton at the end of the month, with a range of about 7.2%. The downstream demand for polyacrylamide is relatively stable. Gongyi City, one of the main domestic producing areas, started to restart production in late September, and the supply of polyacrylamide increased.

Industry: Since the end of July, the intermittent shutdown has basically ended, and manufacturers have started to resume production. The shutdown cycle has returned. In late July, the water purification and environmental protection enterprises of Yongan Road Street Office in Gongyi City, Henan Province, received the “shutdown notice” recently. The notice requests that: according to the analysis of the environmental pollution situation and future polluted weather conditions in the city, the city attack and strengthen the management of water purification and environmental protection enterprises require all depths. Governance enterprises will stop production before acceptance, and production can be restored after dispatching or acceptance. 2. Stop production again after resumption of production: it will resume production for ten days in August, and start to stop production again on 15th. According to the manufacturer, the stop production is more affected by the National Games held in Zhengzhou on September 8th. The local environmental protection inspection is strict, and all local enterprises in Gongyi are required to stop production for environmental protection treatment and maintenance. After the National Games on 8 September, the local factories did not receive the notice of start-up immediately, and strict environmental protection inspection was in progress. In late April and September, Gongyi local factories began to resume production one after another, and the supply of goods gradually returned to normal. 5. After the start of the National Day in October, the mainstream quotations of manufacturers and traders were stable.

Future market forecast: Business association analysis believes that the current normal production of manufacturers, increased supply, downstream demand has not changed significantly, and on the premise of a substantial downward price reduction, pay attention to whether the future market price will be downward, the general trend is relatively stable in the near future.

I. Trend analysis

Align:center

According to the monitoring data of business associations, as shown in the chart above, the narrow fluctuation of copper price in September was the main factor. At the beginning of the month, the price of copper was 46736.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the price of copper rose sharply to 47286.67 yuan/ton, with an overall increase of 1.18%, a decrease of 1.81% from the beginning of the year and a decrease of 5.94% from the previous year.

II. Market Analysis

Copper prices in September, mainly affected by macroeconomic pressures and trade frictions, continued to bear pressure, but supply continued to be tight, leading to a dilemma between copper prices.

Supply: During the period of 2018-2019, domestic copper enterprises increased production capacity by nearly 2.47 million tons, and put into operation exceeded expectations, which led to a rebound of supply pressure in the copper market; however, in 2019, when copper enterprises overhauled, the output of copper enterprises in the first half of this year was significantly lower than expected. From January to July 2019, domestic copper refining output totaled 5.713 million tons, down 2.3% from last year. The output showed a downward trend, and since June, copper production began to rise slowly.

Demand side:

Power grid: The investment performance of power grid in the first half of the year was not good, but it improved significantly in July. The cumulative annual growth rate increased from 19.3% in June to 13.9% in July. The potential of power generation in the latter half of the year is great, and the investment scale of power grid in the fourth quarter is expected to increase.

Real estate: In August, the cumulative investment in real estate development fell to 10.5% from 10.6% of the previous value, and the growth rate of real estate investment fell for four consecutive months. However, the growth rate of completed housing area increased from July-11.3% to-10%, and the decline was narrowed.

Air-conditioning: In August, air-conditioning sales per month were 10.274 million units, an increase of 3.5% compared with the same period last year. Among them, domestic sales were 7.291 million units, an increase of 0.6% compared with the same period last year.

Car: 1-8 months, China’s automobile production and marketing respectively completed 15 million 939 thousand and 16 million 104 thousand vehicles, production and sales decreased by 12.1% and 11%, respectively, which decreased by 1.4 and 0.4 percentage points respectively from 1 to July.

3. Prospects for the Future Market

To sum up, copper has been a narrow concussion since September. On the one hand, it is supported by the decrease in copper production, while the other side can not be effectively boosted. But in general, gold and silver ten are the peak season of consumption. Demand may recover somewhat.

Price Trends of Spot Precious Metals

According to the data of business associations, the average spot price of domestic gold on the 27th day was 348 yuan/g, down 1.56% from 353.50 yuan/g on the 1st day, 2.94% from 358.55 yuan/g on the 4th September, the peak spot price of gold on the 4th September, and up 22.49% from 284.10 yuan/g at the beginning of the year (01.01).

The spot price of domestic silver on the 27th day was 4363 yuan/kg, down 2.42% from 4471.33 yuan/kg on the 1st day, 8.55% from 4771 yuan/kg on the 4th September, the peak value of the year, and up 20.60% from 3617.67 yuan/kg at the beginning of the year (01.01).

Precious metals fall slightly after peak value in September

Since June, the precious metals market has been improving all the way. On September 4th, the price reached its peak in the year, and then a slight retracement. At present, the prospects of precious metals in both directions are uncertain, the trade situation is uncertain, the political situation in Europe is unstable, and whether the multiple benefits of economic recession can support the current price remains to be further observed, and it is expected to gradually increase. Enter the oscillation operation zone.

Price Trend

Market Analysis of Potassium Carbonate Products

(Photo Source: Business Association Commodity Analysis System)

According to the data monitored by business associations, the price of potassium carbonate remained stable this week, with the average tax price of 6437.50 yuan per ton for the mainstream domestic light potassium carbonate manufactured during the week, and the current price fell by 6.87% compared with last year.

II. Analysis of Influencing Factors

Products: This week, the market of potassium carbonate is stable, the trading atmosphere of potassium carbonate market is general, the activity is low, the attitude of potassium carbonate manufacturers is not positive, the actual market turnover is insufficient, downstream purchasing maintains just demand, while the plant start-up rate of manufacturers is at a low level, the overall inventory of low-level purchasing market momentum is low, domestic potassium carbonate. The market is stable. According to the statistics of business associations: in September, the main quotation range of domestic industrial potassium carbonate factory is about 6400-6800 yuan/ton (quotation only for reference). The quotation varies according to the purchasing situation.

3. Future Market Forecast

Potassium carbonate analysts of business associations believe that this week’s potassium carbonate market is stable, and the end of September is approaching. The traditional peak season of “Gold, Nine, Silver and Ten” is underdeveloped. Potassium carbonate prices are as stable as ever. Later, driven by various factors, the main concern is whether demand has increased at the end of the festival, and the price of potassium carbonate may recover.

Price Trend

According to the data monitoring of business associations, as of September 22, the phosphate ore market has been running smoothly as a whole. Enterprises in several mainstream areas monitored by comprehensive business associations have quoted prices for 30% of domestic grade phosphate ores at an average price of 330-430 yuan per ton.

II. Market Analysis

Product: This week, the phosphorus ore market has not fluctuated and continues to operate steadily. At present, the phosphorus ore market transaction is stable. Enterprises supply old customers’orders sporadically. The atmosphere of new orders transaction is slightly light. Some mining enterprises plan to stop production and reduce production. In the near future, the market digests inventory mainly to reduce production and maintain stable quotation. At present, the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fuquan Huifa Mining Co., Ltd. in Guizhou is 370 yuan/ton (including tax), the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Guanglong Mining Co., Ltd. in Kaiyang, Guizhou is 350 yuan/ton (including tax), and the quotation of 30% grade phosphate ore of Fanshan Phosphate Mine Co., Ltd. in Hebei Province is 530 yuan. / Tons (including taxes), 28% phosphorus ore from Liushugou, Hubei, quoted 420 yuan per ton.

Industry Chain: The market of yellow phosphorus is stable for the time being, the stock is near the end before National Day, and the downstream supply is mainly sporadic. The net phosphorus turnover refers to 18500-20000 yuan per ton. The phosphoric acid market is supported by the cost of raw materials and intends to increase, but downstream is cautious and has limited acceptance of high prices.

3. Future Market Forecast

Business society data analysts believe that: in the short term, it is expected that the phosphate ore market will continue to operate steadily.