I. price trend
Adipic acid market trend chart
According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, in November, the domestic adipic acid continued the weak market in October, and the price fluctuated and fell, with the monthly rise and fall of – 2.70%. By the end of the month, the mainstream price was generally 7700-7900 yuan / ton.
II. Analysis and comment
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This month, the adipic acid market went out of shock and fell. According to the monitoring of the business association, adipic acid has been in a downward channel for three consecutive months, with a cumulative decline of 7.13% from September to November. At present, loose supply, weak demand and loss of cost support are the three main reasons for dragging the market. In November, the downstream demand of adipic acid was weaker, the downstream market of polyurethane and PA66 was depressed, and the operating rate was even lower; in addition, the steady increase of supply led to the increase of social inventory pressure, and the enterprise went to inventory for a long time, but the effect was not significant, so the price fell again and again. In terms of region, the markets of East China and South China have declined, ranging from 100-200 yuan / ton, which is narrower than that in October. The market atmosphere is slightly bleak, dealers are mainly active in shipping, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market has a heavy wait-and-see mentality, the transaction is slightly deadlocked, and there is room for businesses to save and transfer profits. In addition, the upstream cost side lost the key support. Although pure benzene ended the slump in September October, the rebound effect is not ideal at present. The MDI of related products is also not optimistic, and the price remains weak. According to the monitoring of the business society, the rebound range of pure benzene in November is only 0.70% (as shown in the figure below), which is an important reason for the loss of support on the cost side of adipic acid and the price slump.
Trend chart of pure benzene Market
First of all, on the supply side, affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders, the market supply only increased but not decreased, and many dealers said that the inventory pressure was large, the plant operating rate of manufacturers was high, the market inventory and the manufacturer’s inventory were increased, and the market was in a relatively low season, so now the downstream procurement is still rational, affected by this, the delivery of goods slowed down slightly in the middle and late November. Among them, there are also relatively low-cost sources flooding the market. There is a certain bargaining space for products, and the price difference between the market price offer and the firm offer remains. Dealers in North China, East China and South China adjust their quotations to varying degrees, and most regions maintain a stable market. Excessive supply pressure is an important reason why the price of adipic acid did not keep falling.
PA66 market trend chart
In terms of demand, the downstream procurement has not improved significantly, and PA66 has been a weak market for three months. Although the bottom was built in November, it has not rebounded. The operating rate is up to 50%, and the operating rate of downstream polyurethane is down again and again. At present, it is maintained at 40%, which does not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of business society, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has been in a weak market since September It continued to decline. Although it rebounded slightly in November, it only rose by 0.22%. In the current off-season market trend, the follow-up is still weak (as shown in the above figure). The downturn in the downstream market is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.
III. future forecast
Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid has been out of the negative market for three consecutive months, and has not improved. At the same time, the whole chemical industry is also in a downward cycle. At present, the winter haze control has increased environmental protection efforts. The enterprise’s operating rate is low, and the downstream purchase volume is also low. The main melody is that the supply and demand are not booming, and the background of the chemical industry downturn is enveloping us The whole industrial chain of adipic acid, in addition, the lack of downstream demand is still the decisive factor for the rebound of adipic acid market, which is expected to be difficult to get out of the haze in a short period of years ago.