1、 Price trend

2、 Market analysis

This week, the domestic potassium sulfate Market was on the sidelines, with low market turnover enthusiasm and stable start-up. The operating rate of the potassium sulphate industry in Mannheim, Hebei Province is about 70%, which is temporarily stable. The mainstream quotation is also maintaining stability at a virtual high level. 50% of the powder is 2600 yuan / ton, 50% of the particles and 52% of the total water-soluble powder is 2700 yuan / ton. When the actual transaction is completed, there is no small space for large order preferential. In South China, 50% of the main stream of powder is priced at 2700-2850 yuan / ton, and 52% of the main stream of powder is priced at 2800-2950 yuan / ton, all of which are negotiated separately.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of potassium sulphate of business association, the demand in winter is relatively small, the downstream operating rate is affected by the weather relatively low, the price is weak, the market transaction is relatively cold, and the low market of potassium sulphate is still difficult to change in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of the business agency, the price of chloroform in Shandong continued to decline this week, with the average price at the beginning of the week at about 2200 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week at 2100 yuan / ton, down 4.55% in the week.

2、 Cause analysis

Product reason: due to the traditional off-season of trichloromethane market, the downstream demand is flat, and the demand side support is insufficient. Although the overall inventory of the market is low, it is still unable to prevent the weak operation of trichloromethane price. At present, the regional quotation is about 2100 yuan / ton, Jiangxi Liwen’s quotation is about 3050 yuan / ton, and Jiangsu’s quotation is about 3400 yuan / ton.

Industrial chain: in the upstream, the methanol market continues to be strong, with local strength. At present, it is about 2195 yuan / ton; the liquid chlorine market is stable, moderate and volatile, and the downstream demand is flat. At present, it is about 300-450 yuan / ton. On the downstream side, the domestic refrigerant market is in short supply and the downstream stock is picking up, and the weekly price is slightly higher; the pharmaceutical agricultural market and solvent industry just need to be flat, and the price of chloroform is generally supported.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, there are 11 kinds of commodities in the rise and fall list of bulk commodity prices on January 9, 2020, among which there are 2 kinds of commodities with an increase of more than 5%, accounting for 2.4% of the number of commodities monitored in this sector; the top 3 commodities with an increase are glycol (6.93%), ammonium chloride (5.09%) and DMF (4.29%). There are 6 kinds of commodities with a decline in the month on month, and the top 3 products were bisphenol A (- 4.40%), epichlorohydrin (- 2.73%) and potassium sulfate (- 0.90%).

3、 Future forecast

According to the data analyst of methane chloride of business association, at present, it is in the off-season of chloroform, with low inventory of enterprises and poor downstream demand. Under the condition of weak supply and demand, it is expected to operate in a weak way in the short term.

1、 Price trend

The domestic market price of dimethyl ether (Henan) rose continuously this week. At the beginning of the week, the average price of domestic dimethyl ether (Henan) market was 3083.33 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average price was 3146.67 yuan / ton, up 2.05% in the week, 12.02% lower than the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

Product: the trading atmosphere of methyl ether (Henan) market on Tuesday is good. As of January 10, devices such as Hebei Yutai, Henan lankaohuitong and Shanxi Lanhua technology venture Co., Ltd. had been shut down for maintenance; there was no quotation for the failure of the new dimethyl ether device in Henan Yima. The ex factory price of Shengxin dimethyl ether in Qinyang, Henan Province is 3200 yuan / ton, that of Henan xinlianxin Chemical Industry Group Co., Ltd. is 3290 yuan / ton, that of Hebei Jichun Chemical Co., Ltd. is 3600 yuan / ton, that of Shandong Dezhou shengdeyuan company is 3520 yuan / ton, and that of Shandong Yuhuang is 3350 yuan / ton.

On Tuesday, the market of methyl ether rose in general, especially in Henan. The market operating rate continues to decrease. At present, the operating rate is at a low level and the overall market supply is reduced. This week, the methanol market increased significantly, the liquefied gas market continued to rise, the gas ether gap continued to open, the downstream bullish mentality was obvious, the main purchase into the market, the overall shipment of manufacturers was relatively smooth, the mentality was strong, and the prices were continuously increased. In the later stage, due to the sharp fall of international crude oil, the market was constrained to go up, and the enthusiasm for entering the market in the lower reaches turned to be weak, and the price subsequently stabilized, with some manufacturers slightly reducing the price.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business association, in the first week of 2020 (1.6-1.10), there are 6 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the energy sector, including 1 kind of commodity with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 6.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 commodities are methanol (5.24%), fuel oil (3.70%) and dimethyl ether (2.05%). There are 8 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 12.5% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling are LNG (- 6.45%), WTI (- 5.54%) and Brent (- 4.71%). This week’s average was – 0.69%.

3、 Future forecast

Dimethyl ether analysts believe that at present, the international crude oil has been lowered, which has some impact on the market. The terminal demand is limited. With the completion of a new round of replenishment in the downstream market, the main consumption inventory is delisting. However, at present, liquefied gas is at a high level, which supports the market to a certain extent. It is expected that the future market will be adjusted in the short term or sideways.

1、 Price trend

The antimony commodity index on January 10 was 53.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 47.45% from 102.32 (2012-10-16), the highest point in the cycle, and up 14.45% from 46.98, the lowest point on December 24, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2012-09-08 to now).

2、 Market analysis

Upstream and downstream: on Wednesday, the price of antimony oxide fell with the trend of antimony ingot. As of Friday, the average price of antimony oxide was 99.5% at 33500 yuan / ton, and 99.8% at 36000 yuan / ton. In terms of raw materials: the delivery and investment of mining enterprises are light, some mines are still shut down for maintenance in winter, and the delivery and investment are limited, and most mines are shut down for maintenance or suspend the delivery quotation.

Domestic market: the antimony ingot market fell this week, mainly due to the approaching of Spring Festival, the approaching of holidays for most manufacturers, the impending suspension of logistics and transportation, the end of downstream stock up ahead of time, and a significant decline in market volume. In terms of price, as of Friday, the average price of 2 × low bismuth antimony ingots is 37000 yuan / ton, 1 × antimony ingots is 37500 yuan / ton, 0 × antimony ingots is 38500 yuan / ton, and 2 × high bismuth antimony ingots is 34500 yuan / ton.

Nonferrous Industry: this week, the market shrouded in the risk sentiment brought about by the US Iraq conflict. Crude oil and gold soared, and nonferrous metals were passively pressured, first suppressed and then raised. As the United States announced to replace the full-scale war with economic sanctions, the risk aversion mood was eased, and the low metal level gradually picked up.

3、 Future prospects

Next week will usher in the first round of signing the Sino US trade agreement. There are a lot of data in the United States, and it is expected that the U.S. dollar will still have room to continue to recover. China will face the delivery of the 2001 contract. With the delivery for another month, downstream consumption will gradually enter the Spring Festival holiday mode, and consumption will obviously turn weak, and basic metals will fall under pressure after surging. From next week, it will be closed in recent years. Most manufacturers will have a holiday. The market is light and the price is stable.

1、 Price trend

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, as of January 3, the average price of domestic BDO market was 9756 yuan / ton, with a 1.25% increase on a month on month basis and a 3.17% decrease on a year-on-year basis.

2、 Market analysis

Product: this week, the focus of domestic BDO market is high. The factory and traders all reflect the tight spot supply in the market. Some of the main factories led by Merck announced the listing price in January and controlled the delivery, showing a clear intention to support the market. BDO industry continues to promote Linked Settlement and marketing, but there is strong resistance in the main downstream, some long-term negotiations are stranded, waiting for more clear information guidance. Sinopec’s catalyst replacement unit was restarted, and Tunhe phase II was successfully commissioned on December 30. Before the load of each factory was reduced, the market supply might increase, and the industry’s wait-and-see mood will rise again. After entering January, although BDO plant has plans to reduce its load, some downstream factories will have holidays in advance before the Spring Festival, and the demand will gradually turn weak, and the game between the supplier and the demander will continue.

In terms of devices, this week, Tianye’s first phase 30000 ton device is in normal operation, and the second phase two 60000 ton devices will be restarted in February 2020; black cat will be restarted on December 20, with recent products; Chongqing Jianfeng will be shut down for maintenance on December 15, with an estimated one month; Sinopec’s first device will be replaced with catalyst; Tunhe second phase 100000 ton device will be successfully commissioned on December 30. In January, MEC, Tunhe, Kaixiang, Dongyuan and Shanhua had plans to reduce the burden. This week, the overall market operating rate is about 69.2%. (domestic production capacity increases by 60000 tons / year for Shaanxi black cat and Xinjiang new industry, 100000 tons / year for Tunhe phase II, and 30000 tons / year for Shaanxi chemical and Yizheng Dalian long-term parking)

Industrial chain: in terms of raw materials, methanol, the domestic methanol market rose slightly this week, with a good trading atmosphere. The delivery price of the Northern Line in Inner Mongolia is concentrated at 1730-1760 yuan / ton, and that of some enterprises of the southern line is reported to 1780 yuan / ton, so the inventory reduction of enterprises is smooth. The mainstream prices in Guanzhong region increased by 20-30 yuan / ton to 1780-1880 yuan / ton ex factory spot exchange. The downstream and traders entered the market actively to make up for the vacancy. Most of the main enterprises have no inventory and sell with production, mainly in Sichuan, Chongqing, Shandong and other regions. Xinjiang, Ningxia and other regions rose 30 yuan / ton, Baofeng still maintained a high level of foreign mining in the week, and the market trading was smooth. In terms of units, the production of the two 300000 ton units in Huating, Gansu Province was resumed on December 31, with a total daily production increment of 2000 tons. After the second phase methanol feeding test run in Yulin Yankuang, it has entered the maintenance state, which has little impact on the market.

Calcium carbide: this week, domestic calcium carbide price is mainly stable with a slight increase. Wuhai area and Ningxia area deliver goods smoothly with low inventory. This week, the factory price is mainly stable. The situation of short supply makes the calcium carbide manufacturers more bullish, waiting for the downstream purchasing manufacturers to increase. From the perspective of upstream raw materials, the weak market of Lancan in Shaanxi Province has declined, civil procurement has come to an end, and large material market transactions have declined. At the same time, the downstream construction of calcium carbide did not improve significantly, and the inventory pressure of small and medium-sized materials of manufacturers was on the high side. About 800-860 yuan / ton for large materials, 680-720 yuan / ton for medium materials and 650-700 yuan / ton for small materials. At this stage, the arrival of downstream purchasing manufacturers is not regional. Up to now, only Henan region is restricted by goods to increase the purchase price, and the supply of goods from other regions is still enough to support production, mainly with a wait-and-see attitude. Near the Spring Festival, the supply of goods transportation, weather problems may have some impact on the price change, but the trend of domestic calcium carbide price rise has been determined, and it is expected that the price of calcium carbide will be slightly increased next week.

3、 Future forecast

At present, the domestic BDO industry has entered a critical period of transformation of the old and new sales modes, and some downstream enterprises have strong resistance to the hanging settlement mode. Following the release of January load reduction news from BDO plant, some downstream companies want to follow up the production reduction, and the game between the supplier and the demander continues. Sinopec’s overhaul unit has been restarted, Tunhe phase II test run has been successful, the market supply may increase, the industry’s wait-and-see mood is gradually rising, and the January delivery time is relatively short, the downstream demand gradually turns weak, some of the long-term requirements have not been implemented. Before a consensus on hanging settlement was reached in the upstream and downstream markets, BDO analysts of the business agency predicted that the domestic BDO market would wait and sort out next week, focusing on the device dynamics and marketing issues.

1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the selling price of sulfuric acid in Shandong Province rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 293.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 306.67 yuan / ton at the end of the week. Up 4.55%, down 2.13% year on year. Overall, sulfuric acid rose slightly this week, with the sulfuric acid commodity index at 47.73 on January 3

2、 Market analysis

（1） Products:

This week, the price of the mainstream sulfuric acid manufacturers in Shandong Province rose slightly, the inventory of manufacturers was small, and the downstream demand was average. The weekend quotation of Heze Jiangyuan is 260 yuan / ton, which is 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the weekend quotation of Zouping Tianlu is 210 yuan / ton, which is also 20 yuan / ton higher than that at the beginning of the week; the quotation of Jinan Yuanfei is 450 yuan / ton, which is temporarily stable.

（2） Industrial chain:

In the near future, the domestic sulfur market has stopped falling and maintained stability. The downstream monoammonium market is generally traded in a light manner, and the new order transaction is not ideal. The market for diammonium is also low and consolidated. The downstream demand is less. Sulfuric acid enterprises have more early orders, short-term construction is insufficient, and supply is slightly tight. This week, the domestic sulfuric acid plants operated smoothly, the market supply was relatively tight, the downstream gas buying was general, and the market turnover was limited.

3、 Future forecast

After the adjustment in December, the capital return of each plant is in good condition, the equipment maintenance is completed, and the production capacity is increased. The upstream sulfur price stopped falling and remained stable, while the downstream construction started generally, and the product trend rose under the contradiction between supply and demand. According to analysts of business and social sulfuric acid, the short-term market in Shandong is dominated by low consolidation under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials.

According to the monitoring of the business agency, the price of activated carbon at the beginning of this week was 11283 yuan / ton, and the price of activated carbon at the end of this week was 11266 yuan / ton, down 0.15%.

Products: the price of domestic activated carbon continues to fluctuate and decline. At present, the factory price of activated carbon for coconut shell water purification in East China is about 7200-12000 yuan / ton; the price of domestic activated carbon is mainly for maintaining stability, and the factory basically follows the previous orders.

Industry chain: the cost pressure of coconut shell, fruit shell, charcoal and other main raw materials in the upstream of activated carbon is supported, and the demand is acceptable; the cost support of coal-based carbon raw materials is weak. The downstream power, medicine and other demand industries purchase goods according to the single order. The purchase market of activated carbon for air purification and water purification is favorable. The environmental protection policy promotes the activated carbon market. The downstream factories purchase goods according to the demand, and the market transaction is light.

Forecast: the downstream of activated carbon is still cold, and the market lacks good support. It is expected that the short-term activated carbon market will not improve greatly, and the overall market may be dominated by shock consolidation.

1、 Market Overview

According to the data of the commodity list of business association, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell in 2019. At the beginning of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1175.00 yuan / ton, and the highest point was March 20. The average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1443.33 yuan / ton. At the end of the year, the average price of formaldehyde in Shandong Province was 1160.00 yuan / ton, with a comprehensive annual decline of 26.56 yuan / ton. The current price dropped by 10.56% year on year.

2、 Market analysis

In 2019, the formaldehyde Market in Shandong Province rose first and then fell. The first stage is from the beginning of the year to the middle of February. Before and after the Spring Festival, the formaldehyde price is stable, with occasional small drop. The price remains at 1125-1180 yuan / ton. The second stage is from late February to early April. After the Spring Festival, the methanol market is affected by the macro and port inventory. Under the support of cost, the formaldehyde price is rising. On February 18, the formaldehyde price is 1125 yuan / ton, and on April 1, the formaldehyde price is 1600 yuan / ton, up 37.78%. The third stage is from April 2 to mid May. In April, the methanol market affected by the arrival of imported goods in April showed a “waterfall” decline, which led to a sharp drop in formaldehyde price. On April 2, the formaldehyde price was 1550 yuan / ton, and on May 10, the formaldehyde price was 1130 yuan / ton, a 27.10% drop. The fourth stage is from the middle of May to the beginning of September. The safety and environmental protection inspection continues to be strict. The upstream methanol price is generally stable and slightly fluctuating. Occasionally, it rises or falls quickly and recovers. The impact on formaldehyde is limited. The price of formaldehyde fluctuates and is consolidated. The price remains at 1100-1200 yuan / ton. The fifth stage is from the beginning of September to the beginning of October. Driven by the golden nine silver ten traditional peak season, the price of formaldehyde rose slightly. Influenced by the recent surge in crude oil, methanol futures and the expected production of methanol to olefin, the upstream methanol market rose again in line with some downstream stock up before the national day. Supported by favorable supply and demand, the price of formaldehyde rose. In early September, the price of formaldehyde was 1160 yuan / ton, while in early October, the price of formaldehyde was 1320 yuan / ton, up 13.39%. The sixth stage is from the middle of October to now. The upstream methanol is affected by the sharp drop of domestic methanol futures and the continuous pressure of port inventory, unable to provide formaldehyde support. The downstream operation rate is affected by environmental protection control, and the formaldehyde price continues to decline. In the middle of October, the formaldehyde price is 1286.67 yuan / ton, and on December 27, the formaldehyde price is 1060 yuan / ton, down 17.62%.

3、 Future forecast

Recently, the upstream methanol continued to decline, the cost side support was unfavorable, the market trading was light, the downstream market operating rate was average, and the demand side and cost side support were weak, so the formaldehyde analyst of the chemical branch of business society predicted that the domestic formaldehyde price or low consolidation was the main trend in the near future.

1、 Price trend

Business agency: maleic anhydride market continued to rise in December

According to the data of business agency, the average price of maleic anhydride as of December 30 was 7700.00 yuan / ton (including tax), up and down 4.52% compared with 7366.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On December 30, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 72.54, which was the same as yesterday, 41.34% lower than the highest point 123.67 (December 26, 2017), and 29.14% higher than the lowest point 56.17 on February 16, 2016. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

Product: maleic anhydride market continued to rise in December. In December, most of the major domestic maleic anhydride factories operated normally. This month, the spot inventory of maleic anhydride was tight, driving the price of maleic anhydride up. At present, maleic anhydride is in stable operation for the time being. Middlemen and downstream have strong wait-and-see mood for the future market, and the market is generally traded.

Industrial chain: crude oil rose in December. The downstream unsaturated resin operates stably, and the terminal demand is general. At present, some factories have parking plans,. According to the monitoring of business association, at present, the operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is lower than that in the earlier stage, the price difference between crude benzene and hydrogenated benzene is narrowed, the loss of hydrogenated benzene enterprises is increased, there are many maintenance plans in the near future, some units may reduce the operating rate, the price of hydrogenated benzene in East China is 5750-5800 yuan / ton, and that in Shandong is about 5550-5600 yuan / ton. The price of n-butane continued to rise this month.

3、 Future forecast

According to analysts of maleic anhydride products of business association, at present, maleic anhydride stock is limited, but there is a strong wait-and-see mood in the downstream. In addition, it is expected that the maleic anhydride market will run in a weak position in January due to the proximity of resin parking cycle.

1、 Price trend

Adipic acid market trend chart

According to the data of the business club’s bulk list, last week (12.23-27), the domestic adipic acid market remained stable, and the dealer’s quotation partially went up, with a small range. Up to 200 yuan / ton, the mainstream quotation by the end of last week was generally 8000-8200 yuan / ton.

2、 Analysis and comment

Last week, the adipic acid market continued to stand still, with little change in prices in most regions, and some of the prices rose. On the basic level, loose supply and weak demand are still the main factors that hinder the adipic acid to get out of the weak situation. The improvement of the cost side did not bring a rebound in the downstream adipic acid market, but increased the dilemma of enterprise profit contraction. At present, the downstream demand for adipic acid has not improved. In addition, the social inventory pressure has not been alleviated. The market has not reversed the upward momentum. The enterprise inventory and market inventory are still at a high level. This is the main reason why the price of adipic acid has not rebounded. In terms of region: the prices in East China and South China are still low, and some dealers are slightly weak, but the range is limited to 50-100 yuan / ton. The market atmosphere is a little cold, dealers actively give priority to profit delivery, and the market maintains a weak and volatile pattern. At present, the downstream market still generally holds a wait-and-see attitude, and the transaction is slightly deadlocked. In addition, on the upstream cost side, although pure benzene ended the downward trend of shocks, as of December 27, the rebound of this month was more than 8%, but the cost transmission effect was lagging behind, which did not bring much positive effect to the adipic acid market. On the contrary, with the price of pure benzene rising, the profits of adipic acid manufacturers were compressed, and at the same time, they were trapped in the weak demand, and the price did not Rising, this confirms the extremely weak market situation.

Trend chart of pure benzene Market

First of all, from the perspective of supply side, the overall supply pressure of the market is still large, the inventory of manufacturers and the market is still high, and the pressure of dealers is large, which is largely affected by the downturn of downstream purchase orders. In the early stage of adipic acid rise, dealers have accumulated a large number of sources of goods, and the inventory pressure is large. In addition, the main reason why adipic acid price didn’t go out of the weak market is that the plant operating rate is high, the export market is depressed and the supply pressure is too high.

PA66 market trend chart

In terms of demand, year ago, the downstream procurement was not strong. At present, the downstream centralized stocking behavior did not appear. Most of the downstream procurement was on demand, and the enthusiasm for stocking was not high. In December, the nylon 66 market was depressed, and the downstream operating rate continued to fall, basically below 50%, which did not form a strong boost to the upstream adipic acid. According to the monitoring of the business agency, the downstream PA66 of adipic acid has been monitored since September In the second half of this month, the price of PA66 continued to decline, with a range of – 1.96% (as shown in the above figure). PA66 has not improved in the near future. The downturn in the downstream market of adipic acid is the decisive factor for adipic acid to get out of the dilemma.

3、 Future forecast

Adipic acid analysts from the chemical branch of business society think that adipic acid will continue to run in a stalemate in the near future. It is unlikely that the price will reverse in the middle and later stages. On the one hand, we should pay attention to the effect of market de stocking, on the other hand, we should pay attention to whether the downstream demand can follow up. But in the near future, the price of pure benzene in the upstream will rise. As the cost effect is transmitted to the terminal, adipic acid may come out The market is rebounding slightly.