1、 Price trend
According to the data monitored by the business association (average ex factory price of SG5 in carbide process), the average price of domestic PVC mainstream on May 29 was 6112.5 yuan / ton, up 12.26% from the beginning of the month, down 11.73% compared with the same period last year. On May 28, the PVC commodity index was 77.46, unchanged from yesterday, down 22.54% from the highest point in the cycle of 100.00 (2011-09-05), and up 32.93% from the lowest point of 58.27 on December 20, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to 2011-09-01 to
Spot price: the spot price of PVC rose in May, and the mainstream price was more than 6000 yuan / ton. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of May 29, the main quotation range of domestic PVC is 5900-6200 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream price of pvc5 carbide in Changzhou is around 6050-6170 yuan / ton, the interval price of pvc5 carbide in Hangzhou is around 6050-6130 yuan / ton, and the mainstream price of PVC ordinary carbide in Guangzhou is around 6180-6300 yuan / ton.
Futures: in May, PVC futures bottomed and rebounded, continued to rise, and fell back at the end of the month, but still at a high level. Pvcv2009 contract fell slightly on the 28th, closing at 6025 yuan / ton, compared with – 45 yuan on the previous trading day; trading volume was 201914 hands, + 62114 hands; positions were 203441 hands, – 9471 hands, basis difference was 45 yuan, + 25 yuan; 9-1 price difference was 100 yuan, – 25 yuan.
2、 Market analysis
In May, PVC bid farewell to the previous decline, bottomed out and rebounded. It rose all the way. The futures and spot markets rose at the same time. Both of them broke the 6000 mark. The center of gravity continued to move up, and the market trading atmosphere was good. This month’s rise was driven by multiple positive factors, such as the rebound of crude oil, the continuous rise of PVC futures, the gradual recovery of domestic market, the increase of demand, the continuous decline of social inventory, and the rise of raw material cost, which supported the rise of PVC. Near the end of the month, PVC futures soared and fell, the rise of the spot market slowed down, and some enterprises’ prices were slightly loose, but the firm price sentiment of the merchants was still the same, and the intention of low price was not strong. In May, PVC market continued to rise, the terminal demand acceptance ability was slightly insufficient, and the trading was cautious, mainly to digest the early increase.
May is the maintenance season for PVC enterprises. There are many maintenance enterprises and the output declines. The shortage of goods in South China continues. In June, there are still maintenance plans for enterprises, limited market arrival, little inventory pressure from manufacturers and good orders. Domestic downstream demand has basically recovered. Driven by real estate, the recovery of pipe enterprises is relatively fast. Other product industries are also actively recovering, and the export performance is still poor. After the recovery of foreign economy, the demand may increase. At present, in the game of supply and demand in PVC market, the prices are mostly stagnant in a short period of time.
On May 27, WTI crude oil futures market prices in the United States fell sharply, and the settlement price of major contracts was 32.81 yuan / barrel, down $1.54 or 4.5%. Brent crude oil futures market prices fell sharply, the settlement price of major contracts was $35.45/barrel, down $1.29 or 3.5%, mainly due to the unexpected increase in US crude oil inventory and tension between China and the US.
The crude oil market fell sharply, which could not support the cost of ethylene. However, the continuous rise of ethylene price was affected by the previous rise of crude oil price, and the impact of the fall of crude oil on ethylene has not been shown for the time being. Business analysts expect ethylene prices to fall in the next few months.
On May 29, the ex factory quotation of carbide in Northwest China rose slightly, up 25.00 yuan / ton, or 0.94% compared with the quotation on May 27. The lower quotation of the upstream Lancan market is consolidated and the cost support is insufficient, which has a negative impact on the price of calcium carbide. However, the price of PVC in the lower reaches is gradually rising, the demand of customers in the lower reaches for calcium carbide is rising, and the PVC market is rising, which plays a driving role in the price of calcium carbide. Calcium carbide prices are expected to rise slightly in shock.
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, in May 2020, there were 13 kinds of commodities in the list of commodity price rise and fall, among which 6 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 35.3% of the number of commodities monitored in the board; the top 3 commodities were ABS (13.62%), PC (13.22%) and PVC (12.26%). There are 4 kinds of commodities falling on a month on month basis, and 2 kinds of commodities falling by more than 5%, accounting for 11.8% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top 3 products falling were PP (fiber) (- 8.82%), PA66 (- 5.53%) and cis-1.12%, respectively. This month, the average rise and fall was 3.83%.
3、 Future forecast
PVC analysts of the business club believe that the current macroeconomic recovery, the fundamentals are OK, there is not much change for the time being. At the end of May, affected by the fall of PVC futures, the spot price is stable and moving slightly, but the positive factors are still there, and the future market still has upward expectations.