1、 Price trend

According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the average price of the mainstream manufacturers on May 22 was 15500 yuan / ton, up 4.49% from the beginning of the week (18th). The R22 commodity index on May 24 was 93.00, unchanged from yesterday, down 16.22% from the period’s highest point of 111.00 (2020-02-24), and up 11.51% from the lowest point of 83.40 on October 14, 2019. (Note: cycle refers to 2019-09-01 till now)

2、 Market analysis

Product: R22 market rose this week. The price of trichloromethane at the raw material end has risen sharply, which is good for the cost end. Because the price of R22 refrigerant in the early stage is close to the bottom, and the load of the manufacturer has been reduced, the supply of goods in the field is limited, so the merchants are reluctant to sell it. Considering the cost, the manufacturers are in strong emotion of pricing, and the price of R22 refrigerant has risen. However, the recovery of demand side is slow, the follow-up is insufficient, and the ability to accept the high-end price is limited, so the power for refrigerant R22 to keep rising is insufficient, mainly for consolidation. According to the price monitoring of the business agency, as of May 22, the average price of refrigerant R22 was around 15500 yuan / ton, and the quotation was mostly concentrated around 12000 yuan / ton – 16000 yuan / ton, which was discussed in detail.

Industry chain: trichloromethane market at the raw material end continues to rise, and the overall operating rate of the enterprise will be less than 50%. Among them, 440000t / a plant in Jinling, Shandong Province, 400000t / a plant in Luxi Chemical Industry, 280000t / a plant in Dongyue, Shandong Province, and 80000t / a plant in Jinmao, Dongying City have been shut down. The overall inventory of the industry is low, the market spot supply is tight, and the downstream purchase and stock up The situation is fair, with rigid demand as the main factor. In recent years, the price of hydrofluoric acid in China has declined unilaterally. The goods in the hydrofluoric acid field are generally sold. The domestic spot supply of hydrofluoric acid is sufficient. However, the demand of the downstream refrigerant industry is not good. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is low. In addition, the price of raw material fluorite is falling. The market price of hydrofluoric acid is affected by certain negative effects. The price of hydrofluoric acid in China is slightly lower. As of May 21, the negotiation of hydrofluoric acid in southern China has been completed The mainstream is 7500-8000 yuan / ton, and the price of hydrofluoric acid in the northern market is 7500-8500 yuan / ton.

Industry: according to the price monitoring of the business agency, in the 20th week of 2020 (5.18-5.22), there are 32 kinds of commodities in the list of rise and fall of bulk commodity prices in the chemical industry sector, including 5 kinds of commodities with a rise of more than 5%, accounting for 5.6% of the number of commodities monitored in the sector; the top three commodities are crude benzene (11.37%), chloroform (9.52%) and hydrogen peroxide (7.11%). There are 24 kinds of commodities with a decline in the aspect ratio, and the top three products are polysilicon (- 4.49%), light soda (- 3.75%) and aniline (- 3.60%). This week’s average was 0.74%.

3、 Future forecast

According to the refrigerant analyst of business club, at present, the raw material end of refrigerant R22 is rising, and the cost end is good for support, but the demand end is not enough to follow up, mainly digesting the previous increase. It is expected that the price trend of refrigerant R22 will be strong and stable in the short term.