In July, the domestic MIBK spot market emerged from a V-shaped trend of first suppressing and then rising. At the beginning of the month, the benchmark spot price in East China was 9466.67 yuan/ton, which continued to fall due to weak demand during the off-season, abundant supply, and weak cost support. On July 14th, it fell to a low point of 8700 yuan/ton for the whole month. Driven by the increase in raw material acetone prices in the middle of the month, the market bottomed out and rebounded. At the end of the month, the price rebounded to 9450 yuan/ton, basically recovering from the previous decline. However, due to the constraints of terminal demand, the overall market was a recovery trend and did not form a upward trend.

One reason is that downstream demand has entered the traditional off-season, and industries such as tire matching anti-aging agents and coatings have seen a decline in production. The terminal only needs to be purchased immediately without centralized replenishment, resulting in light market trading and a lack of transaction support. The second is that the on-site equipment operates stably, the circulation of goods is sufficient, and traders face significant pressure to reduce inventory. They actively offer discounts and sell goods, exacerbating the downward trend in prices. Thirdly, the upstream acetone market is weak, MIBK’s cost bottom line is loose, manufacturers have insufficient willingness to raise prices, and market pessimism dominates the market.
The core driving force is the strong rise of raw material acetone, which significantly increases the production cost of MIBK, compresses industry profits, and even causes losses. Manufacturers’ willingness to sell at high prices has greatly increased, completely reversing the weak market pattern. At the same time, after the price fell to the low point of the year, traders and downstream bought at the bottom to replenish inventory, the market trading rebounded, sentiment recovered, and the bearish market completely ended, driving prices to steadily recover and rise.
This round of rebound is purely cost driven, not a trend reversal driven by demand recovery. At the end of the month, downstream consumers are still in the off-season for consumption, and caution is exercised in purchasing goods at high prices. The increase in transactions is limited, and the loose supply pattern in the industry has not fundamentally changed. There is no good news of a shortage of goods, so the rebound of the market is limited, and the overall recovery is mainly based on fluctuations.
In the short-term market, cost remains the core pricing logic, with a focus on tracking trends in acetone prices, changes in MIBK plant operation, downstream terminal operation recovery, and changes in port inventory sources. At the same time, pay attention to the strength of the basis and the breakthrough of technical pressure levels, in order to determine the sustainability of the market rebound and the turning point of market sentiment.