1、 Price trend:
On May 29, the hydrogenated benzene commodity index was 38.63, unchanged from yesterday, down 62.13% from 102.01 (2014-01-09), the highest point in the cycle, and up 28.81% from 29.99, the lowest point on April 7, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to 2013-12-01 to now).
2、 Market analysis:
In May 2020, the hydrogenated benzene market rose in shock. The ex factory price in North China was 3283.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month and 3500 yuan / ton at the end of the month, up 6.60% monthly.
Rise and fall of major domestic markets in May 2020
Price of product 1 day price 29 day price rise and fall unit: yuan / ton
East China 3350-3450 3500-3600 150 yuan / ton
Shandong 3000-3050 3400-3500 425 yuan / ton
Summary of Sinopec pure benzene price adjustment in May 2020
Price increase after date increase unit: yuan / ton
May 6, 3000200 yuan / ton
May 9, 3150, 150 yuan / ton
May 18, 3250100 yuan / ton
May 21, 3350, 100 yuan / ton
May 27, 3500, 150 yuan / ton
In May 2020, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene for five times, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec had implemented 3500 yuan / ton of pure benzene. The price of South Korea’s pure benzene was 407 US dollars / ton on the 29th day, up 70 US dollars / ton from the price on May 6.
Crude oil market continued to rise in May, with WTI rising to $34.06/barrel on the 29th from $19.78/barrel at the beginning of the month, up $14.28/barrel.
Crude oil rose $14.28/barrel in May, and closed at $34.06/barrel on May 29. Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene five times in May, with a cumulative increase of 700 yuan / ton. By the end of the month, Sinopec had implemented 3500 yuan / ton of pure benzene. The price of South Korea’s pure benzene on May 29 was 407 dollars / ton, 70 dollars / ton higher than that on May 6.
At the beginning of the month, the international crude oil shock rose, the pure benzene external market continued to rise, Sinopec 2 times raised the price of pure benzene, the price of raw material raw benzene before the price adjustment was coincided with the Labor Day holiday, some manufacturers did not make the price adjustment, the crude benzene increased after the holiday, the daily rise of 500 yuan / ton, and the pressure of hydrogenation benzene was relatively large, which was highlighted by all kinds of good news, and the price of hydrogenation benzene increased. The price of hydrogenated benzene in the area increased by about 300 yuan / ton, which coincided with the centralized purchase in the downstream after the festival and a good deal, and the hydrogenated benzene saw a wave of big increase.
After the middle of the year, the price of downstream styrene declined, the price of raw material crude benzene decreased, the cost pressure weakened, and the price of pure benzene operated weakly, which led to the high consolidation of hydrogenated benzene market and a slight decline of 100 yuan / ton in some markets.
After 18 days, with Sinopec increasing the price of pure benzene to 3500 yuan / ton for three times in a row, the peripheral international crude oil continued to rise, and the external price of pure benzene rose all the way. The external favorable factors stimulated the hydrogenated benzene to enter the channel of slight rise again. However, with some hydrogenated benzene enterprises in Shandong and Shanxi regions stopping in the early stage in late May, the market supply of hydrogenated benzene was relatively sufficient At present, the operation rate of the downstream styrene unit has reached about 90%, and the operation of other downstream phenol ketone, cyclohexanone and aniline is relatively stable. In the short term, there is no obvious change in the demand for hydrogenated benzene. In the case of sufficient supply, there is no strong support for the demand, and the hydrogenated benzene market has not entered the rising channel. The market price in Shandong Province has increased by about 100 yuan / ton.
3、 Trend Forecast:
The contradiction between supply and demand of crude oil is still prominent, and the problem of oversupply is still the primary problem that puzzles the oil market. With the reduction of production in oil producing countries and the restart of economy in more countries, the supply and demand of crude oil will tend to a new balance. It is expected that the price of crude oil will fluctuate in the future. The operating rate of hydrogenated benzene enterprises will increase in the near future, and the market supply will increase, but it is difficult for the downstream demand to increase significantly. The supply and demand level is under pressure Strong, driven by the external advantages of pure benzene and crude oil market alone, it is difficult to have a large market after hydrogenation of benzene, mainly stable consolidation.