According to statistics, the domestic market price of p-xylene rose sharply in 2021. The average price at the beginning of the year was 4700 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year was 6700 yuan / ton, and the annual increase was 42.55%. It can be seen from the price trend chart that the highest price of domestic PX appeared in November, the highest price was 7300 yuan / ton, the lowest price of the whole year appeared at the beginning of the year, and the lowest price was 4700 yuan / ton, The domestic p-xylene market price trend has risen sharply, and the PX market price trend is jointly affected by domestic and foreign factors.

In 2021, China’s total PX production capacity was 28.815 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity was 2.75 million tons. However, the annual operating rate was about 764%, and the total output was about 22 million tons. However, the total import volume in 2021 was about 13.5 million tons. On the whole, the external dependence of PX decreased, and the external dependence was 38% in 2021. The production of new domestic devices led to a significant increase in the domestic PX self-sufficiency rate, Compared with the self-sufficiency rate of 41% in 2020, it increased to 38%, but the external price of PX is also the most important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene.

According to the domestic market price trend chart and PX external market price trend chart of the whole year, the PX market price trend can be divided into four stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, when the PX market price trend rises sharply; The second stage is from April to the end of May, when the PX market price drops slightly; The third stage is from June to November, when the PX market price rises slightly; The fourth stage is December, the PX market price falling stage.

The first stage was from the beginning of the year to the end of March. The price trend of domestic PX market rose sharply. The domestic price rose from 4700 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 42.55%. From the perspective of product supply, the PX supply at home and abroad has been slightly tight since 2021. The domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, but there are more maintenance of overseas devices. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene devices in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia has decreased, the closing price of PX has risen sharply, and the domestic p-xylene market has risen sharply affected by the external price. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the continuous soaring of the crude oil market in the first stage, the continuous sparing production restriction policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) and the decline of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for several weeks have paved the way for the rise of oil prices. In addition, under the background of the epidemic situation, the promotion of vaccination and the expected continuous warming of economic recovery. Since mid February, the United States has been hit by an unprecedented snowstorm. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down, and the rapid decline in production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has accelerated the pace of oil price rise. The international oil price has increased from $45 / barrel to about $65 / barrel. The downstream PTA market price trend rose sharply, and the PTA market price rose by 37.54%. During this period, the economy continued to recover, the operating rate of the textile industry gradually increased, and the upstream demand increased, resulting in a sharp rise in the prices of PX and PTA products.

The second stage was from April to the end of May. The PX market price fell slightly, and the domestic market price fell slightly from 6700 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.48%. The decline in the domestic p-xylene market price was mainly due to the increase of on-site supply and the shock of crude oil price, which led to the rise and fall of domestic petrochemical products. In the second stage, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, the Qilu petrochemical unit operates normally, the Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50%, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the start-up in Asia has increased, the supply has increased, and the market price will decrease slightly. During this period, the international crude oil price changed little, the epidemic in Europe rekindled, and the United States, affected by high domestic inflation, began to put pressure on OPEC to increase production and restart the Iran nuclear negotiations. The oil price was corrected during the period, and the WTI price was about $65 / barrel. The international crude oil price shock brought cost support to the PX market price, and the PX price fell slightly. The external price of PX has little change due to the influence of crude oil price. The external price of PX remains about 850 US dollars / ton. The external price has a certain guiding role for the domestic p-xylene market. The external dependence of p-xylene is still high. The rise of external price is a good support for the domestic PX market. In addition, the downstream PTA and polyester markets have weakened significantly, PTA production has suffered losses, and the demand for PX procurement is general. The domestic PX operation remains high, and the supply slightly exceeds the demand. The operators are cautious, and p-xylene fell slightly during this period.

The third stage is from June to November. The PX market price returned to the rising stage. The domestic PX market price fell from 6400 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton in November, an increase of 14.06%. During this period, more than 70% of domestic PX units were started. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operated stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operated stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operated stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operated normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operated stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operated at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operated stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit started at about 50%, The domestic p-xylene supply is general, but the operation of overseas units is general, and the domestic p-xylene price rises slightly affected. PX external price rose to US $920 / ton, which was a shock. PX external price rose, which was good for the domestic market price. During this period, crude oil rose strongly again, the energy crisis broke out, and there was an “energy shortage” in many parts of the world. In particular, there was a shortage of natural gas in Europe, electricity prices soared, and China was once short of coal and electricity. The demand for oil as an alternative energy increased, and the oil price continued to rise. For a long time, the oil price has been maintained above $80. The rise of international oil price has a certain positive impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market has increased. The downstream PTA market price showed an “m” trend at this stage, but the overall price changed little. The foreign textile industry did not recover significantly, and the domestic export market did not improve. The PTA market price remained 4500-5000 yuan / ton, and the domestic p-xylene market rose supported by costs.

The fourth stage is December. In this stage, the PX price fell. As of the end of the year, the price was 6700 yuan / ton, mainly due to poor demand, which led to the decline of PX price at the beginning of the month. About 70% of domestic p-xylene was started, but the overseas units were generally started, and the trend of PX external price changed little. By the end of the year, the closing price was USD 874-876 / T FOB Korea and USD 892-894 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is about 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, and the domestic market price of p-xylene has declined slightly. Crude oil prices rose, and WTI stood above $75 again to a nearly one month high. The rapid spread of Omicron variant virus, but the symptoms seem to be milder than those of the previous variant; The market hopes that Omicron will have a weak impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported, mainly because Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. However, in December, PTA went out of stock as a whole, and there were a lot of plant maintenance and production reduction. At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of PTA industry was around 75%. With the short stop of 6 million ton plant of yishanhua in the middle of the month, the operation quickly fell to 61%, and then restarted one after another, rising to the current 80%. At present, the market supply is still sufficient. Most of the offers of downstream polyester plants are hard demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The start-up of the downstream polyester industry in December remained around 80%, and the change was not too great. Due to the weak terminal demand, the polyester market mainly fell. With the boost of the cost side, there was a slight rebound at the end of the month, and the monthly decline of each product was around 2%. The poor downstream demand led to the decline of PX price.

From the perspective of PX products in 2021, the total national PX capacity is 28.815 million tons, and the domestic new capacity is 2.75 million tons. The statistics of domestic new capacity are as follows:

It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity increases and domestic supply increases. The annual operating rate of PX is about 764%, and the annual output is expected to be about 22 million tons. The domestic spot supply of p-xylene is still insufficient, and the domestic p-xylene is still highly dependent on foreign countries, which makes the domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. In 2021, there is little new capacity to increase production, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend increases. However, PX products are in the era of negative profit in 2021. The profit trend of production process with naphtha as raw material is shown in the figure below:

There are two PX production processes, one is naphtha as the main raw material, and the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, there is no profit in producing PX with naphtha as raw material. In addition, the production of PX with MX as raw material has always been in negative profit, and the annual average profit is – 70 US dollars / ton. The negative profit has become the new normal in 2021.

Part of domestic PX is separated from mixed xylene. The price of crude oil and domestic mixed xylene are also factors affecting the price trend of domestic p-xylene market. The price trend of crude oil and mixed xylene rose sharply in 2021. International crude oil performance rose as a whole, supply tightened and demand recovered, and higher prices were the main theme. According to the trend chart of xylene, the market price of mixed xylene rose sharply in 2021, with an overall increase of 48.73%. In the first quarter, the price of mixed xylene plummeted, and the sharp contradiction between global PX supply and demand led to PX entering a negative profit era.

97% of PX in China is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2021, it is obvious from the above figure that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite close. The market prices of PX and PTA in China have risen sharply, but the processing costs have been rising, and some PTA manufacturers have suffered serious losses.

It can be seen from the domestic PX price trend chart in recent five years that the PX price in 2021 is higher than the average price in 2020. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is great pressure on the sharp rise of PX market prices in Asia in 2022. There is excess PX capacity in Asia, the weak trend of PX market prices in Asia is more clear, and the rising pressure is huge. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase significantly. Although new units are still put into operation in domestic PTA enterprises next year and the demand is increased, the new PX production capacity is greater, including the 4 million T / a PX unit of Dongfang Shenghong and the 2 million T unit of phase II of CICC. The PX self supply rate is gradually increased, the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced and the domestic supply and demand will be improved, However, the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus, and there is great pressure on PX exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is very likely to sell profits to China and compete with domestic enterprises. PX production losses will continue. Therefore, PX will still maintain a weak pattern in 2022, and PX negative profits have become a normal state. However, affected by the boost of international crude oil prices, PX market prices have been supported by certain costs, The average price in the domestic market is about 5200 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the peak sales season of textile in spring, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is 7000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of domestic new production capacity, the domestic low price is also expected to be about 4500 yuan / ton.

The price of chloroform rose sharply in December. According to the data monitoring of business agency, as of December 31, the price of chloroform apron in Shandong was 4275 yuan / ton, up 41.13% from 3100 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

Since December, some chloroform enterprises have stopped for maintenance, the operating rate of enterprise devices has decreased one after another, and the supply of goods in the market is tight. Although the prices of raw materials and downstream have fallen, it is still difficult to stop the rapid progress of chloroform market, and chloroform increased by 41.13% in December.

In December, the price of methanol fell sharply, and the cost was dragged by dichloromethane. According to the business agency, as of December 31, the price of methanol was 2375 yuan / ton, down 14.26% from 2770 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

According to the business agency, there were many shutdown and maintenance of domestic methane chloride units in December, the overall operating load decreased, and the supply side was tight.

Downstream refrigerants are generally delivered in the off-season, and the demand for chloroform is reduced; The consumption of downstream fine chemicals is small, and they are basically purchased on demand. On the whole, the downstream demand for chloroform is not strong.

Future forecast: according to the methane chloride data of business society, the cost of chloroform is lower. With the improvement of construction, it is expected that the chloroform market will weaken slightly in the later stage.

In December, the domestic methanol market was still depressed, and the price fell again and again. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2770 yuan / ton at the beginning of December and 2375 yuan / ton at the end of December. The price decreased by 14.26% during the month and increased by 2.81% year-on-year.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.

Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business society in 2017-2021:

Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of December 31:

Region Price

Qinghai region No quotation

Shanxi region 2130-2150 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Liaoning region 2240 yuan / ton

Fujian region RMB 2630-2680 yuan / ton, ex warehouse cash exchange nearby

Lianghu area Factory reference 2525-2650 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange

Anhui region 2560-2580 yuan / ton factory acceptance

Henan region Price reference: 2300-2305 yuan / ton factory acceptance

At the beginning of the month, the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, the overall atmosphere was poor, and traders’ sentiment was cautious and weak. Recently, commodity linkage has been strengthened, crude oil has declined, PE main contract has fallen weakly, PP has fallen below 8000 yuan / ton, and Ma main contract of methanol futures has fluctuated. The traditional downstream enters the off-season of demand, some MTO units are shut down for maintenance, the freight is high, and traders operate with caution.

In mid June, the methanol market declined weakly, mainly due to the weakening of downstream demand for MTO maintenance and formaldehyde in Ningbo Fude, the inventory discharge demand of upstream enterprises and the different mentality of traders. The methanol market fell under the background of de stocking, and the market atmosphere was depressed. The overall mood in the middle and lower reaches is poor. In addition to the rigid demand, the market is difficult to breed the demand for hoarding goods, which obviously suppresses the price.

In late June, methanol market was mainly sorted out. The price fluctuation announced by major production enterprises in Northwest China this week is small, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the price of major production enterprises in Shandong. The port inventory increased, the inventory discharge of mainland enterprises and the downstream demand for formaldehyde weakened, and the market trading atmosphere was weak<

At the end of the month, the methanol market fell significantly, the shipments of mainland enterprises were general, the inventory increased, traders waited, the downstream demand entered the off-season, the coal price fell, and the methanol cost weakened.

Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:

Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:

In terms of industrial chain, MTBE production is expected to decrease as some factories may be affected due to the proximity of the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympic Games. The output of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may be reduced. After new year’s day, some factories have shut down for holidays and reduced their burdens. Changzhou Fude and Nanjing Chengzhi phase II are expected to restart, and MTO will be started or upgraded. Celanese and BP units are restored, and acetic acid production may increase.

Comparison chart of price trend of coal (upstream products) and methanol in business community:

Comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether (downstream products) price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde (downstream products) price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of methanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) price trend of business society:

In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 30, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 398.00-399.00/t. US Gulf methanol market closed at 110.75-111.25 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 360.50-361.50 euros / ton, down 0.5 euros / ton.

region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall

Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 398.00-399.00/t USD 0 / ton

Europe and America American Gulf 110.75-111.25 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon

Europe FOB Rotterdam 360.50-361.50 euros / ton – 0.5 euro / ton

In the future, the macro support may be limited, the coal price may continue to operate weakly, and the methanol cost support may be insufficient. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be depressed in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, the average early trading price of silver market on December 31 was 4770 yuan / kg, an increase of 2.51% compared with the average early trading price of spot market at the beginning of the month (December 1); Compared with the beginning of the year (01.01), the spot price of silver was 5550 yuan / kg, a decrease of 14.05%.

On December 31, the spot market price of gold was 372.36 yuan / g, an increase of 1.62% compared with the early average price of 366.42 yuan / g in the spot market price in early December (12.1); Compared with the spot price of gold at the beginning of the year (01.01), 392.70 yuan / g, down 5.18%.

Comparison of precious metal gold and silver price trends in recent 1 year

The convergence of precious metal gold and silver is relatively good, the price amplitude of silver is large, and the direction is basically the same. After the recent silver price reduction and low consolidation, it began to repair.

As of December 31, the year-on-year correlation between precious metals gold and silver was 0.614.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

As of December 31, the annual correlation between precious metal gold and crude oil was -0.436, with weak correlation during the year.

As of December 31, the annual correlation between precious metal gold and crude oil was -0.551, with weak correlation during the year.

Main reasons for price recovery in December

With the landing of the taper expectation to suppress the gold price, the short-term bad rebounded, superimposing the impact of the European energy crisis, making the market worry about inflation rise and the low level of gold and silver rebound.

Although the number of initial claims for unemployment benefits in the United States hit a new low in nearly 50 years last week, the U.S. job market continued to improve. The PMI in Chicago rebounded in December, indicating that the impact of Omicron virus on the U.S. economy is limited; The European Central Bank Management Committee gave a briefing on policy tightening. Holzmann said that negative interest rates and unconventional monetary policies would be introduced next year, while knot said that raising interest rates or in 2023 would also be unfriendly to precious metal prices.

In the near future, it is expected that the price of precious metals will fall and adjust slightly, which also shows that the game of long and short factors is intensified. The business community believes that inflation expectation is still the leading factor, and the overall upward trend will remain unchanged in the short term.

In the past 21 years, acetic anhydride market has been full of passion

According to the monitoring data of business society, the price of acetic anhydride soared in 21 years. As of December 30, the price of acetic anhydride was 10400 yuan / ton, an increase of 3000 yuan / ton or 40.54% compared with 7400 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year. The highest price in the year was 15075 yuan / ton of acetic anhydride on September 28, an increase of 103.72% over the beginning of the year. In the past 21 years, the acetic anhydride market soared throughout the year, and after October, the acetic anhydride market fell rapidly, and the acetic anhydride price plummeted.

Weekly K-line diagram of acetic anhydride in 2021

It can be seen from the K-line chart of acetic anhydride week of business club in 2021 that although the price of acetic anhydride has risen sharply throughout the year, the rise and fall of acetic anhydride price are mainly concentrated in just a few weeks, and the rise and fall of acetic anhydride price is relatively flat in other times. The period of rapid rise and fall of acetic anhydride price in 21 years is mostly related to the reduction of equipment operating rate. The acetic anhydride market in 21 years is struggling in the suspension and resumption of work. Below, we will focus on several periods of rapid rise and fall of acetic anhydride and its main reasons.

Work stoppage and load reduction before the Spring Festival

In January, the price of acetic anhydride had an obvious rapid rise stage. Before the Spring Festival, the shutdown and burden reduction of acetic acid enterprises increased. In addition, downstream customers prepared goods in advance before the Spring Festival, the price of acetic acid rose sharply, and the cost of acetic anhydride rose, driving the price of acetic anhydride up.

The price of acetic anhydride rose steadily and rapidly in February

In February, the price of acetic anhydride rose slowly in a single week, but the price of acetic anhydride rose steadily and rapidly after the festival. The price rise of acetic anhydride after the festival is mainly due to the shutdown of Celanese acetic acid manufacturer in Texas, the rise of external acetic acid price stimulates the rise of domestic acetic acid price, and the rise of raw material price drives the rise of acetic anhydride price.

In April, acetic acid enterprises stopped unexpectedly to stimulate the sharp rise of acetic anhydride price

The rise of acetic anhydride price in April was unexpected and reasonable. Shunda acetic acid equipment originally scheduled to start after the Spring Festival could not start, and Jiangsu Thorpe acetic acid plant shut down unexpectedly, which exacerbated the shortage of acetic acid supply. The rise of acetic acid price led to the sharp rise of acetic anhydride price in the downstream.

Acetic anhydride prices fell sharply in July

In July, acetic acid equipment resumed operation one after another, the supply of raw materials was sufficient, the price and cost of acetic anhydride decreased, and the price of acetic anhydride fell sharply.

The price of acetic anhydride soared in September

The price of acetic anhydride soared in September, with a single month increase of 54.92%, and the biggest increase was concentrated in the two weeks from September 13 to September 26, with a two-week increase of 50.32%. The sharp rise in the price of acetic anhydride in September was mainly due to the shutdown tide caused by the arrival of the environmental protection supervision group. The upstream and downstream enterprises of acetic anhydride stopped production and production in a large area, Yankuang’s acetic anhydride equipment stopped, and the supply of acetic anhydride was insufficient. However, the demand of downstream customers increased before the National Day holiday, the supply exceeded the demand, and the price of acetic anhydride soared due to the strong atmosphere of market speculation.

The price of acetic anhydride continued to fall in October

After October, the price of acetic anhydride continued to decline. Although it rebounded briefly, it did not become a climate in the end. In October, the national macro-control focused on the coal industry. The prices of methanol and acetic acid in the downstream fell sharply. Under the background of the decline of the whole industry and the backlog of resistance of downstream customers to high price acetic anhydride, the price of acetic anhydride plummeted and continued to fall until the end of the year. Although acetic anhydride enterprises stopped maintenance for a short time, they failed to stop the decline of acetic anhydride.

Outlook

In 2021, the acetic anhydride market continued to rise during the suspension and resumption of work, and reached a record high at the end of September. However, such a high price of acetic anhydride made the acceptance of downstream customers very poor, and the downstream construction continued to decline. At the same time, the high price of acetic anhydride also squeezed the profit space of downstream customers, which was not conducive to the development of the industry. The decline in the price of acetic anhydride is inevitable. The decline in the price of acetic anhydride from October to the end of the year is the performance of the return to rationality of the acetic anhydride industry. The price of acetic anhydride will still fluctuate downward in 22 years. Due to the tight supply of acetic acid in the upstream and the high concentration of production enterprises, the decline in the price of raw material acetic acid remains to be observed. The acetic anhydride market is expected to fluctuate and decline in 2022. But 8000 yuan / ton or the bottom line of acetic anhydride price in 22 years.

1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, the domestic nickel market rose sharply in 2021. According to the data monitoring of business society, the nickel price was 128133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 and 150400 yuan / ton at the end of 2021, an increase of 17.38%. Looking at the trend of nickel throughout the year, the nickel price first fell to the lowest price of 120816.67 yuan / ton on April 21, and then rose to the highest price of 159866.67 yuan / ton on October 16, with an amplitude of 32.32%.

As shown in the above figure, from the current comparison chart of nickel in business society, the current trend of nickel in 2021 is basically the same, and the futures price is very close to the spot price. Near the end of the year, the price spread expanded and the main basis was positive, which was bad for buying hedging.

2、 Market analysis

In 2021, nickel price is divided into four stages:

Slight rise (from January to the end of February): from January to the end of February, it is the Chinese Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream production and work resume, the demand increases, and the nickel price rises slightly.

Cliff fall (from the end of February to the end of April): on March 3, an important news was released in the market. Qingshan industry signed a high nickel matte supply agreement with Huayou cobalt industry and Zhongwei Co., Ltd. the three parties jointly agreed that Qingshan industry will supply 60000 tons of high nickel matte to Huayou cobalt industry and 40000 tons of high nickel matte to Zhongwei Co., Ltd. from October 2021. The economy of producing nickel sulfate with high nickel matte is better than that of producing sulfur with nickel beans The economy of acid nickel is competitive with nickel, so the successful preparation and test of high matte nickel threatens the underlying logic of nickel fundamentals, seriously hits the nickel market, and nickel drops sharply.

All the way up (from the end of April to the beginning of September): Although the nickel price plummeted due to the high matte nickel incident, the nickel market returned to the fundamentals after the news that it still takes time to implement and the uncertainty of production scale and delivery. In terms of supply, the supply of nickel ore is constantly disturbed, and vale suspended the operation of nickel ore in Sudbury, Canada due to the breakdown of labor negotiations Affected by gas and epidemic situation, Philippine shipments are also relatively small. The pressure at the far end of nickel supply end is large. On the demand side, the development of new energy industry boosts the demand for nickel, and the demand for new energy is at a high level.

Wide range shock (from early September to the end of the year): in the fourth quarter, the supply of nickel ore was still tight, the global nickel supply was short, and the nickel ore giants reduced production to varying degrees. However, due to domestic production and power restriction, poor demand and weak supply and demand, the nickel price fluctuated at a high level.

To sum up, affected by the abundant global liquidity, the continuous decline of dominant inventory and the shortage of nickel supply, the nickel price shows an upward trend as a whole. In 2022, the global liquidity may be tightened, the dual control of domestic energy consumption will be relaxed, and the demand will increase. The green demand for new energy is still good, but the impact of high nickel matte may be greater, and the supply tends to be loose. Under the condition of both supply and demand, it is expected that the nickel price in 2022 may be weaker than that in 2021, and the price range is 130000-150000 yuan / ton.

In December, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak and difficult to change, showing a trend of first decline and then consolidation. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of dimethyl ether in Henan market was 4127.50 yuan / ton on December 1 and 3720.00 yuan / ton on December 28, with a decrease of 9.87% during the month and 19.04% compared with November 1.

As of December 28, the domestic market prices of dimethyl ether in various regions are as follows:

region Mainstream quotation

Jiangxi region 3930 yuan / ton

Hebei region 3910 yuan / ton

Henan region 3690-3700 yuan / ton

In the last month of 2021, the domestic dimethyl ether Market was weak and difficult to change, and the price continued to decline. The decline was mainly concentrated in the first ten days of December, and the narrow range oscillation was mainly in the second ten days of December. In the first half of the month, the market continued its weakness in November and continued to decline. The falling price of raw methanol brought obvious bad news to the market, and the related product liquefied gas was mainly weak affected by the decline of international crude oil, and the dimethyl ether Market was obviously bad. The ex factory quotation of Henan market was continuously reduced, and Jiangxi and Hebei followed the decline. In the middle of the month, the market rebounded slightly, and the tentative high report in the methanol market boosted the dimethyl ether Market. In the early stage, with the price of dimethyl ether falling to a relatively low level, the downstream bargain hunting and replenishment, the market entry enthusiasm improved, the manufacturer’s mentality was strong, and the ex factory quotation rose one after another, but the rising market did not continue. Then the market entered the consolidation stage until the end of the month.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2492 yuan / ton on December 27. In terms of spot goods, the ex factory quotations of major manufacturers mostly fell, ranging from 50-100 yuan / ton. There are many rainy and snowy weather, local transportation is limited, and the freight is high, so traders mainly wait and see. The raw material inventory of downstream enterprises is acceptable, and most of them purchase on demand. The short-term domestic methanol market is sluggish, mainly finishing.

Near the end of the month, the dimethyl ether Market stopped falling and stabilized. Recently, with the obvious cooling of the weather, the terminal demand has increased. In addition, the new year’s Day holiday is coming, and there is a certain replenishment demand in the downstream before and after the festival. However, the decline of raw materials has obviously restrained the market. It is expected that the dimethyl ether market may increase slightly in the short term.

1、 Price trend

According to the data of business agency, the domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell sharply this week. As of December 26, the average price of benzene hydrogenation maleic anhydride remained at 14600.00 yuan / ton, down 13.27% from the average price of 16833.33 yuan / ton on December 20, up 22.35% from the same period last month.

On December 26, the maleic anhydride commodity index was 137.54, the same as yesterday, down 17.36% from the highest point of 166.43 in the cycle (2021-12-15), and up 168.74% from the lowest point of 51.18 on April 14, 2020. (Note: cycle refers to from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The domestic benzene maleic anhydride market started steadily this week. The recent commencement of the downstream unsaturated resin market is relatively stable, mainly the implementation of early orders, and the purchasing sentiment is general. As of the 26th, the solid anhydride in Shandong was about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Jiangsu was about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Shanxi was about 14000 yuan / ton, that in Hebei was about 14000 yuan / ton, and that in South China was about 14000 yuan / ton. The domestic market price of maleic anhydride fell sharply this week, and the downstream mainly digested the high price orders in the early stage. The demand just slowed down, the transaction was light, and the wait-and-see mood was strong.

Upstream, pure benzene fell first and then rose this week. The average price of pure benzene was 6620 yuan / ton on December 19 and 6830 yuan / ton on December 26, an increase of 210 yuan / ton or 3.17% over last week. This week, the market price of hydrobenzene in North China fell, from 6825.00 yuan / ton on December 20 to 6512.50 yuan / ton on December 26, down 4.58%. In terms of n-butane, the price in Shandong was 4770.00 yuan / ton as of December 26.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices rising and falling in the 51st week of 2021 (12.20-12.24), there are 37 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, including 5 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 4.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were caustic soda (13.07%), isooctanol (7.93%) and isobutyraldehyde (5.81%). A total of 37 kinds of commodities decreased month on month, and 4 kinds of commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 3.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were maleic anhydride (- 13.27%), crude benzene (- 6.79%) and diethylene glycol (- 6.52%). Both rose or fell by 0.04% this week.

3、 Future forecast

Analysts of maleic anhydride products of business society believe that at present, the domestic maleic anhydride market price has fallen sharply, and the downstream mainly digests the high price orders in the early stage. The just need to slow down, the transaction is light, and the wait-and-see mood is strong. At present, the domestic maleic anhydride spot is tight, but the Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions are expected to ship in early January, and the supply will increase. It is expected that the maleic anhydride market may continue to decline in the near future.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business society, the nickel price first fell and then rose this week. As of December 24, the spot nickel price was 151000 yuan / ton, up 1.23% from 149160 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 17.85% from the beginning of the year, and up 19.04% year-on-year.

Nickel weekly rise and fall chart

According to the weekly rise and fall chart of business society, in the past 12 weeks, nickel prices rose by 5 and fell by 7, with a wide fluctuation trend recently.

Macro factors: oil prices and stock markets both rose, while industrial metals generally rose.

Nickel industry chain

In terms of supply: the import of nickel ore from the Philippines decreases sharply in the rainy season, but the downstream profit squeeze will be transmitted to the mine end. The recent price reduction of high nickel iron is large, and it runs under pressure.

Downstream: the production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, while the profit of nickel sulfate production was poor. In December, stainless steel production fell, and the demand for nickel weakened.

To sum up: during the rainy season in the Philippines, China’s nickel ore imports decreased sharply. The production and sales of new energy vehicles continued to rise, while at the end of the year, the demand for nickel sulfate by the leading enterprises was sluggish, the production profit of nickel sulfate was poor, and some manufacturers maintained it. Nickel inventory is low, but pure nickel has arrived recently. Nickel prices are expected to remain wide and volatile.

According to the monitoring data of the business agency, as of December 23, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 8166 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on December 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 8933 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 767 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.58%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that in early December, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong fell sharply, with a decline of 14.18% in the first half of the month. Since the beginning of this month, affected by the sharp drop in international oil prices, the trading atmosphere in the n-butanol field has been calm, the downstream demand has been cautious, the n-butanol factory has accumulated inventory, and the shipping pressure has increased. Since the 2nd, the offer price of the n-butanol factory in Shandong has been gradually reduced, and the trading focus in the n-butanol field has also been continuously downward. The wait-and-see mood in the downstream has always been strong, the goods are carefully prepared, and the contradiction between supply and demand has been intensified, As of December 13, the average price of n-butanol in Shandong had dropped to 7500 yuan / ton. Then the low-end price of n-butanol increased, and the overall trading atmosphere in the venue improved. In addition, the temporary parking of n-butanol units in Northwest China strengthened the support of the supply side in the venue. From December 14, the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong stopped falling and warmed up, and the offer price of the factory increased slightly. As of December 15, The ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong is 7600-7800 yuan / ton, and the average price is 7666 yuan / ton, a decrease of 15.57% in the first half of the month compared with the beginning of the month.

In late December, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong continued to pick up steadily as a whole, downstream users bought goods on bargain hunting, the trading atmosphere was calm, the overall supply pressure of n-butanol was small, and there was still support in the supply. Since the 16th, Shandong factory continued to slightly increase the outgoing price of n-butanol. As of December 23, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was around 8000-8300 yuan / ton, The average price is 8166 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on the 15th, it increased by 6.52% in late December, and the overall decline is still 8.58% compared with the beginning of the month. At present, the atmosphere of low price transaction in the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is acceptable, the downstream just needs to perform stably, the factory orders are arranged normally, and some factories receive new orders under the support of supply.

In terms of index, the commodity index of n-butanol (industrial grade) on December 22 was 64.40, the same as yesterday, down 51.13% from the highest point of 131.79 in the cycle (2021-05-16), and up 115.46% from the lowest point of 29.89 on November 30, 2015. (Note: cycle refers to the period since September 1, 2011)

In terms of upstream propylene, on December 22, the trend of propylene (Shandong) tends to be stable, and the mainstream price of propylene in Shandong is 7400-7450 yuan / ton. Recently, the crude oil price has fluctuated all the way, which has limited boost to the propylene market. The downstream market is dominated by just demand, the procurement atmosphere is not high, the market supply is sufficient, and the demand pull is limited. It is expected that the propylene market will be weak and low in the near future.

Future analysis of n-butanol

Based on the current situation, the supply side of n-butanol is still supporting in the short term, and the overall downstream demand is OK. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the n-butanol market in Shandong will be stable and strong, and more attention should be paid to the changes of supply and demand side.