In February, the domestic Shunding market rose first and then fell. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 28, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13690 yuan / ton, down 0.07% from 13700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 14000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw butadiene rose sharply, supported by the cost side, driving the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber higher in the first half of the month. In addition, the loose supply of cis-polybutadiene rubber and the weak downstream demand for cis-polybutadiene rubber had a negative impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber, resulting in a slight decline in the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber in the second half of the month.

According to the business agency, Wanda and Qixiang devices were restarted to normal operation, Qilu, Lande and Zhenhua were reduced to negative operation, and Huayu rubber was temporarily stopped; In February, the overall start-up of polybutadiene rubber decreased slightly.

In February, the raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 28, the price of butadiene was 8372 yuan / ton, up 30.09% from 6436 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In February, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. As of February 28, the price was 13114 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from 13260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 13880 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is slightly reduced, but the pressure is still on, the cost side is significantly higher, which supports CIS polybutadiene rubber, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.

In February, the domestic bisphenol a market was mainly down, mainly due to poor demand and the decline of upstream and downstream products of the industrial chain, with many negative factors. According to the monitoring data of business society, the average offer in East China was 18562 yuan / ton on February 1, and the average offer in the market fell to 17187 yuan / ton on February 28, with an overall decline of 7.41% in the month.

From the raw material side, the domestic phenol market rose first and then fell in February, mainly downward as a whole. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic phenol market was 11200 yuan / ton on February 1, 10987 yuan / ton on February 28, a decrease of 1.9% in the month. On February 10, the offer of domestic phenol market was 11445 yuan / ton, with an amplitude of 4.08%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 10950 yuan / ton, that in South China was 11000 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 10950-11000 yuan / ton.

During the month, the acetone market rose and fell, and the market showed a trend of first rising and then restraining. By the end of the month, the mainstream offer in East China was 5650 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring of business agency, in terms of East China market, the mainstream offer in East China market was 5600 yuan / ton on February 1, 6050 yuan / ton on February 14, and 5650 yuan / ton on February 28, with an increase of 0.89% and an amplitude of 8.04% in the month. As of the 28th, the negotiation in East China was 5650 yuan / ton, the offer in Shandong was 5950 yuan / ton, the offer around Yanshan was 5950 yuan / ton, and the offer in South China was 5880 yuan / ton.

The downstream epoxy resin market negotiation was loose, and the performance was extremely cold during the month, and the market fell significantly, but the market activity increased near the end of the month, among which the liquid resin negotiation in East China was 26500-27500 yuan / ton. Another important downstream PC operates in a narrow range, and the downstream demand is expected to increase as the weather warms up.

From the perspective of business agency, in March, Shandong Lihua yiweiyuan device was overhauled and Changchun one-line was overhauled. There was little change in other factories. Under the support of supply side, the probability of bisphenol a falling sharply was small. Business Agency predicted that bisphenol A might show an overall trend of falling first and then rising in March.

According to the monitoring data of China’s mainstream aluminum chloride industry, the quotation of aluminum chloride industry was significantly reduced from 237.28% to 237.28% on January, and the content of aluminum chloride in China’s mainstream market was significantly reduced from 237.28% About yuan / ton, with a range of about 7.08%.

Industrial chain: in terms of upstream raw materials, hydrochloric acid: according to the monitoring data of business society, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price first fell and then rose in February. The quotation first fell from 296.00 yuan / ton on February 1 to 234.00 yuan / ton on February 9, down 62.00 yuan / ton, down 20.95%, and then rose to 266.00 yuan / ton on February 25, up 13.68%, and then slightly adjusted to 262 yuan / ton, with a monthly increase of 11.49%. The domestic hydrochloric acid market rose and fell this month, and the downstream demand was general; The upstream liquid chlorine market rose slightly, which strengthened the support for hydrochloric acid, and the downstream ammonium chloride market rose by about 13%. However, the downstream has general enthusiasm for purchasing hydrochloric acid, and the difficulty of hydrochloric acid shipment is still a major problem. According to the analysis of business society, hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market rose sharply in February, with an increase of more than 100% in the month. The price rose rapidly from about 3800 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month to about 8000 yuan / ton at the end of the month. Shandong, Henan and other places broke through the 9000 yuan mark, and the market focus moved up rapidly. The strength of international crude oil has brought obvious benefits to the market. The domestic liquefied gas market continues to strengthen as a whole. Superimposed on the increase in market demand in February and the decrease in supply, the domestic liquefied natural gas market is much higher than that in the same period last year. According to the analysis of business society, the current rise is basically in place. With the warmer weather and the limited downstream receiving capacity, the domestic liquid market will return to rationality.

Future forecast: due to the recent geopolitical factors, the rise of international crude oil has a great impact on bulk commodities. The water treatment enterprises started operation after the year, and the production successively entered the normal state; The market inventory is sufficient, the transaction is relatively stable, and there is no large demand to drive; From the perspective of industrial chain, the price of raw hydrochloric acid is weak and the cost support is not strong; However, from the perspective of fuel cost, the cost has increased to a certain extent. Therefore, it is expected that the market of polyaluminium chloride in the future is likely to fluctuate slightly, and attention should be paid to the impact of the recent international situation on the market of relevant commodities.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 fell violently in February, and the spot prices of various brands decreased as a whole. As of February 25, the mainstream offer price of the sample enterprises for China viscosity 2.75-2.85 was about 15800 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 1.66% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: upstream, pure benzene, caprolactam raw material, changed from rise to fall in February, and the cost support weakened. There is a large spot supply of caprolactam, and the market focus continues to move downward, with an obvious decline near the end of the month. At present, the supply and demand side is under pressure and the downstream market is depressed. Under various bad conditions, caprolactam is weak and the confidence in the field is insufficient. The caprolactam market is expected to be weak in the short term, mainly running downward.

The upstream caprolactam price fell, and the cost side support of PA6 was insufficient. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is relatively stable at 70%. The supply side is abundant this month. In February, some contracts of years ago were produced and delivered. In addition, the conventional textile inventory of enterprises was high, and the price reduction and shipment dragged down the spot price. In addition, the poor resumption of downstream enterprises this month and the slow expansion of demand in some areas have a certain negative impact on the demand side. Although the inventory position of terminal enterprise PA6 is not high, the air atmosphere is heavy in the future, the market will buy up rather than fall, and the preparation operation is biased to maintain production.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated and fell in February, the trend of caprolactam turned from high to weak, and the cost support of PA6 weakened. The expansion of terminal demand is less than expected, the buyer’s mentality is not strong, and there is resistance to the high price supply. It is expected that the PA6 market may remain weak in the short term.

Summary of spot price trend of precious metals

According to the data of business agency, on February 24, the average early price of silver market was 5025.33 yuan / kg, with a daily increase of 1.84%, which was 4.85% higher than the average early price of 4793 yuan / kg in the spot market before the festival (January 31).

On February 24, the spot market price of gold was 389.29 yuan / g, up 1.07% on a daily basis, up 5.07% from the spot market price of 373.05 yuan / g before the holiday (January 31).

Comparison of price trends of precious metal gold and silver in recent 1 year

 
In the long term, the price trend of precious metals has a good convergence and the trend is basically the same.

Price trend of precious metals and crude oil

Geopolitical superposition tight monetary expectation suppresses risk appetite

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine intensified around noon Beijing time. The war triggered a sharp decline in global stock markets, pushing up oil prices and prompting investors to buy Precious Metal Gold for safety.

On the other hand, the probability of US inflation data being forced to raise interest rates rose, the international monetary easing policy was expected to gradually withdraw, and the market risk appetite decreased.

Future forecast

In the long run, the monetary easing policy is gradually ebbing, and the expectation of interest rate hike suppresses the continuous rise of precious metal prices. In the short term, precious metals are likely to continue to rise.

According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 22, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 13066 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (12500 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 566 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.53%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in February, the domestic butanone market was running warm as a whole. In the first ten days, after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic butanone market ushered in a steady upward trend from the 8th. After the festival, the construction of butanone in the field was low, and the tight supply in the field supported the upward operation of butanone market. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 13000-13300 yuan / ton. Compared with that before the festival, the cumulative increase after the festival was 500-800 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.87% in early February.

In late February, the tight supply side continued to support the butanone market, but the downstream demand was general, the butanone market continued to rise weakly, and the overall high-level consolidation operation was dominated. Until the 21st and 22nd, the domestic butanone market was running down in a narrow range, and the downstream demand was always cold. The light transactions on the floor depressed the confidence of the operators, and the butanone market loosened and fell. Butanone factories in some regions reduced the ex factory price of butanone by around 100-300 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 12800-13300 yuan / ton, with an average price of around 13066 yuan / ton, It fell by 1.26% in the latter half of the year and rose by 4.53% in February as a whole. At present, the butanone plant is weak as a whole, mainly finishing and operation.

Upstream, in mid February, the liquefied gas market fluctuated frequently, and the overall civil gas market in Shandong was still dominated by weakness, with limited positive market support. Affected by weak terminal demand at the beginning of the week, prices fell significantly. Subsequently, the increase of international crude oil significantly boosted the market, Shandong civil gas stopped falling, and some manufacturers increased, but the overall range was small. In the middle of the week, due to the poor market trading atmosphere, Shandong civil gas returned to weakness again. Until the weekend, downstream market entry increased, manufacturers’ shipments improved, and prices rebounded. On February 13, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5768.00 yuan / ton, and on February 21, the average price was 5396.00 yuan / ton, with a decline of 6.45% within the week.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, there is a heavy wait-and-see mood in the downstream of butanone. The mentality of some butanone holders is frustrated, and the overall atmosphere in the venue is cold. The butanone data division of the business society believes that under the influence of demand containment and the atmosphere in the venue, the possibility that the butanone market will continue to decline in the short term cannot be ruled out, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of the demand side.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 22, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10066 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 700 yuan / ton, or 7.47%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling in February. During the Spring Festival, the domestic market was stable in early February. On the first day of return after the festival (the 7th), the market of n-butanol in Shandong ushered in a wide rise. The average price of n-butanol in Shandong broke close to 11500 yuan / ton, and the price rose by more than 2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival, with a single day increase of 24.20%. Subsequently, on August 8 and 9, the market of n-butanol in Shandong continued to move closer to the high end. On September 9, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to about 11933 yuan / ton, with an increase of 27.4% in the three days after the festival.

After the n-butanol market rose to a high level, the pace of downstream procurement slowed down, the resistance to high prices gradually rose in the downstream, and the demand support weakened. The n-butanol market in Shandong fell when it was at a high level. From the 10th, the n-butanol market gradually declined. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to around 10500-10800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 10600 yuan / ton, The half month increase was 13.17%.

In late February, the decline of n-butanol market slowed down, and the overall situation was weak. Until the 21st and 22nd, affected by the insufficient procurement of downstream users of n-butanol, the cold transaction of new orders and the loose demand support, the n-butanol market in Shandong moved down again. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to about 9900-10300 yuan / ton, and the average price fell to about 10066 yuan / ton, It fell by 5.05% in the second half of the year, and the overall increase in February exceeded 7%. At present, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is weak as a whole.

In terms of upstream propylene, in February, the domestic propylene market in Shandong rose first and then fell, showing an overall upward operation. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 21, the reference price of propylene was 7887.33 yuan / ton, up 1.76% compared with February 1 (7750.80 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol is still calm, the support on the demand side is limited, and the confidence of the industry is frustrated. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong is mostly weak, mainly sorting and operation. More attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 5070 yuan / ton on February 18. Compared with 5530 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it was reduced by 460 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.32%. As of February 18, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

region February 12th February 18th Price rise and fall

South China 5450-5550 yuan / ton 4900-5000 yuan / ton – 550/-550

North China 5250-5500 yuan / ton 4600-4800 yuan / ton – 650/-700

Shandong region 5150-5250 yuan / ton 4700-4800 yuan / ton – 450/-450

Jiangsu region 5200-5300 yuan / ton 4600-4700 yuan / ton – 600/-600

Zhejiang region 5300-5400 yuan / ton 4700-4800 yuan / ton – 600/-600

During the week, the acetic acid market was weak and downward, the start-up of acetic acid enterprises was high, the inventory after the festival continued to accumulate, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was rational, the digestion of early orders was mainly, the market entry enthusiasm was not high, the market transaction atmosphere was light, acetic acid enterprises competed passively for shipment, and the quotation continued to be adjusted downward.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate decreased significantly. On February 18, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 8260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.81% during the week. After the festival, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable, the downstream demand started slowly, the main factories stopped bidding and changed to retail, and the market response was still weak, mainly due to the incomplete recovery of the operation of downstream factories, weak demand and the decline of ethyl acetate price.

The acetic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the supply of acetic acid market is sufficient, the downstream demand is light, the enterprise inventory is accumulated, the competitive shipment, the price is reduced, and the situation of short-term oversupply is difficult to improve. It is expected that the future acetic acid market will continue to operate weakly, and pay specific attention to the downstream transaction.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price is weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 59600 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 59000 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 1.01% and increased by 72.68% year-on-year. On February 18, the bromine commodity index was 207.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.56% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 251.36% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is weak. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 55000-59000 yuan / ton. The bromine price is stable and small, the operation of bromine enterprises is low, and the inventory is small. The downstream flame retardants and pharmaceutical intermediates industry started slowly after the Spring Festival, mostly purchased on demand, and the shipment of enterprises is general. In fact, supply and demand are weak and the market is deadlocked.

In terms of raw materials: the price of sulfur this week is stable and small. The average market price at the beginning of the week is about 2170 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend is 2203.33 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.54%, up 85.15% from the same period last year. The domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable, and the price of solid and liquid sulfur in refineries in various regions is stable. The downstream sulfuric acid market is improving, the port liquid sulfur operates smoothly, and the cargo holders have strong intention to support the high price of liquid sulfur in regional refineries; The demand for phosphate fertilizer is acceptable, there is no pressure on the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, and the sulfur market is relatively strong.

Business analysts believe that the bromine price consolidation operation, bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry mostly purchase on demand, but the actual transaction is general. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price consolidation operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

Market price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene Market on February 17 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on February 10, Price on February 17, Rise and fall

East China, 8025.,7850.,- one hundred and seventy-five

Shandong Province, 8025.,7750.,- two hundred and seventy-five

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

January 11, 7400.,+100

January 14, 7550.,+150

January 19, 7700.,+150

February 7, 8100.,+400

February 11, 7950.,-150

On February 11, 2021, the listing price of pure benzene of Sinopec was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical was 7900 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on February 16, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.66/barrel, up US $1.59 or 1.7%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.81/barrel, up US $1.53 or 1.6%. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that US fuel demand hit a record high, and oil prices were boosted upward.

In the first week after the festival, with the joint support of crude oil and pure benzene, the bidding price of crude benzene increased significantly by 370 yuan / ton. Crude oil prices fluctuated significantly this week, especially on Tuesday, February 15, when international crude oil futures prices fell sharply. WTI settled at US $92.07/barrel, down US $3.39 or 3.6%. The sharp decline of crude oil affected the market mentality, while the affected price of pure benzene fell again. The market actively digested the inventory, and the price of hydrogenated benzene mainly fell this week following the trend of pure benzene.

In terms of the future market fundamentals, the downstream demand still exists, and the high crude oil price still supports the market. However, the recent price fluctuations are frequent, and the future market guidance is limited. It is expected that the support of the industrial chain in the short term will be acceptable, and the price of pure benzene will continue to fluctuate.