In December, the domestic methanol market was still depressed, and the price fell again and again. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average price of domestic methanol production enterprises was 2770 yuan / ton at the beginning of December and 2375 yuan / ton at the end of December. The price decreased by 14.26% during the month and increased by 2.81% year-on-year.
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According to the price monitoring of the business community, in the list of commodity prices in December 2021, there were 6 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the energy sector, including 3 kinds of commodities rising by more than 5%, accounting for 18.8% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were petroleum coke (20.70%), WTI crude oil (16.33%) and Brent crude oil (14.88%). A total of 9 commodities decreased month on month, and 6 commodities decreased by more than 5%, accounting for 37.5% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were liquefied natural gas (- 30.46%), thermal coal (- 24.19%) and methanol (- 14.26%). The average rise and fall this month was – 3.2%.
Comparison chart of methanol price trend of business society in 2017-2021:
Summary of methanol market prices in various regions as of December 31:
Region Price
Qinghai region No quotation
Shanxi region 2130-2150 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
Liaoning region 2240 yuan / ton
Fujian region RMB 2630-2680 yuan / ton, ex warehouse cash exchange nearby
Lianghu area Factory reference 2525-2650 yuan / ton factory withdrawal cash exchange
Anhui region 2560-2580 yuan / ton factory acceptance
Henan region Price reference: 2300-2305 yuan / ton factory acceptance
At the beginning of the month, the methanol market fluctuated in a narrow range, the overall atmosphere was poor, and traders’ sentiment was cautious and weak. Recently, commodity linkage has been strengthened, crude oil has declined, PE main contract has fallen weakly, PP has fallen below 8000 yuan / ton, and Ma main contract of methanol futures has fluctuated. The traditional downstream enters the off-season of demand, some MTO units are shut down for maintenance, the freight is high, and traders operate with caution.
In mid June, the methanol market declined weakly, mainly due to the weakening of downstream demand for MTO maintenance and formaldehyde in Ningbo Fude, the inventory discharge demand of upstream enterprises and the different mentality of traders. The methanol market fell under the background of de stocking, and the market atmosphere was depressed. The overall mood in the middle and lower reaches is poor. In addition to the rigid demand, the market is difficult to breed the demand for hoarding goods, which obviously suppresses the price.
In late June, methanol market was mainly sorted out. The price fluctuation announced by major production enterprises in Northwest China this week is small, and there is no obvious fluctuation in the price of major production enterprises in Shandong. The port inventory increased, the inventory discharge of mainland enterprises and the downstream demand for formaldehyde weakened, and the market trading atmosphere was weak<
At the end of the month, the methanol market fell significantly, the shipments of mainland enterprises were general, the inventory increased, traders waited, the downstream demand entered the off-season, the coal price fell, and the methanol cost weakened.
Monthly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:
Weekly K column chart of methanol domestic production price:
In terms of industrial chain, MTBE production is expected to decrease as some factories may be affected due to the proximity of the Spring Festival and the Winter Olympic Games. The output of formaldehyde and dimethyl ether may be reduced. After new year’s day, some factories have shut down for holidays and reduced their burdens. Changzhou Fude and Nanjing Chengzhi phase II are expected to restart, and MTO will be started or upgraded. Celanese and BP units are restored, and acetic acid production may increase.
Comparison chart of price trend of coal (upstream products) and methanol in business community:
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Comparison chart of methanol and dimethyl ether (downstream products) price trend of business society:
Comparison chart of methanol and formaldehyde (downstream products) price trend of business society:
Comparison chart of methanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) price trend of business society:
In terms of external market, as of the closing on December 30, the closing price of CFR Southeast Asia methanol market was USD 398.00-399.00/t. US Gulf methanol market closed at 110.75-111.25 cents / gallon; The closing price of FOB Rotterdam methanol market was 360.50-361.50 euros / ton, down 0.5 euros / ton.
region ., country., Closing price, Rise and fall
Asia CFR Southeast Asia USD 398.00-399.00/t USD 0 / ton
Europe and America American Gulf 110.75-111.25 cents / gallon 0 cents / gallon
Europe FOB Rotterdam 360.50-361.50 euros / ton – 0.5 euro / ton
In the future, the macro support may be limited, the coal price may continue to operate weakly, and the methanol cost support may be insufficient. Methanol analysts of business society expect that the domestic methanol market will be depressed in the short term.
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