According to statistics, the domestic market price of p-xylene rose sharply in 2021. The average price at the beginning of the year was 4700 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year was 6700 yuan / ton, and the annual increase was 42.55%. It can be seen from the price trend chart that the highest price of domestic PX appeared in November, the highest price was 7300 yuan / ton, the lowest price of the whole year appeared at the beginning of the year, and the lowest price was 4700 yuan / ton, The domestic p-xylene market price trend has risen sharply, and the PX market price trend is jointly affected by domestic and foreign factors.
In 2021, China’s total PX production capacity was 28.815 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity was 2.75 million tons. However, the annual operating rate was about 764%, and the total output was about 22 million tons. However, the total import volume in 2021 was about 13.5 million tons. On the whole, the external dependence of PX decreased, and the external dependence was 38% in 2021. The production of new domestic devices led to a significant increase in the domestic PX self-sufficiency rate, Compared with the self-sufficiency rate of 41% in 2020, it increased to 38%, but the external price of PX is also the most important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene.
According to the domestic market price trend chart and PX external market price trend chart of the whole year, the PX market price trend can be divided into four stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, when the PX market price trend rises sharply; The second stage is from April to the end of May, when the PX market price drops slightly; The third stage is from June to November, when the PX market price rises slightly; The fourth stage is December, the PX market price falling stage.
The first stage was from the beginning of the year to the end of March. The price trend of domestic PX market rose sharply. The domestic price rose from 4700 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 42.55%. From the perspective of product supply, the PX supply at home and abroad has been slightly tight since 2021. The domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, but there are more maintenance of overseas devices. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene devices in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia has decreased, the closing price of PX has risen sharply, and the domestic p-xylene market has risen sharply affected by the external price. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the continuous soaring of the crude oil market in the first stage, the continuous sparing production restriction policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) and the decline of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for several weeks have paved the way for the rise of oil prices. In addition, under the background of the epidemic situation, the promotion of vaccination and the expected continuous warming of economic recovery. Since mid February, the United States has been hit by an unprecedented snowstorm. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down, and the rapid decline in production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has accelerated the pace of oil price rise. The international oil price has increased from $45 / barrel to about $65 / barrel. The downstream PTA market price trend rose sharply, and the PTA market price rose by 37.54%. During this period, the economy continued to recover, the operating rate of the textile industry gradually increased, and the upstream demand increased, resulting in a sharp rise in the prices of PX and PTA products.
The second stage was from April to the end of May. The PX market price fell slightly, and the domestic market price fell slightly from 6700 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.48%. The decline in the domestic p-xylene market price was mainly due to the increase of on-site supply and the shock of crude oil price, which led to the rise and fall of domestic petrochemical products. In the second stage, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, the Qilu petrochemical unit operates normally, the Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50%, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the start-up in Asia has increased, the supply has increased, and the market price will decrease slightly. During this period, the international crude oil price changed little, the epidemic in Europe rekindled, and the United States, affected by high domestic inflation, began to put pressure on OPEC to increase production and restart the Iran nuclear negotiations. The oil price was corrected during the period, and the WTI price was about $65 / barrel. The international crude oil price shock brought cost support to the PX market price, and the PX price fell slightly. The external price of PX has little change due to the influence of crude oil price. The external price of PX remains about 850 US dollars / ton. The external price has a certain guiding role for the domestic p-xylene market. The external dependence of p-xylene is still high. The rise of external price is a good support for the domestic PX market. In addition, the downstream PTA and polyester markets have weakened significantly, PTA production has suffered losses, and the demand for PX procurement is general. The domestic PX operation remains high, and the supply slightly exceeds the demand. The operators are cautious, and p-xylene fell slightly during this period.
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The third stage is from June to November. The PX market price returned to the rising stage. The domestic PX market price fell from 6400 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton in November, an increase of 14.06%. During this period, more than 70% of domestic PX units were started. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operated stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operated stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operated stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operated normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operated stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operated at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operated stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit started at about 50%, The domestic p-xylene supply is general, but the operation of overseas units is general, and the domestic p-xylene price rises slightly affected. PX external price rose to US $920 / ton, which was a shock. PX external price rose, which was good for the domestic market price. During this period, crude oil rose strongly again, the energy crisis broke out, and there was an “energy shortage” in many parts of the world. In particular, there was a shortage of natural gas in Europe, electricity prices soared, and China was once short of coal and electricity. The demand for oil as an alternative energy increased, and the oil price continued to rise. For a long time, the oil price has been maintained above $80. The rise of international oil price has a certain positive impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market has increased. The downstream PTA market price showed an “m” trend at this stage, but the overall price changed little. The foreign textile industry did not recover significantly, and the domestic export market did not improve. The PTA market price remained 4500-5000 yuan / ton, and the domestic p-xylene market rose supported by costs.
The fourth stage is December. In this stage, the PX price fell. As of the end of the year, the price was 6700 yuan / ton, mainly due to poor demand, which led to the decline of PX price at the beginning of the month. About 70% of domestic p-xylene was started, but the overseas units were generally started, and the trend of PX external price changed little. By the end of the year, the closing price was USD 874-876 / T FOB Korea and USD 892-894 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is about 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, and the domestic market price of p-xylene has declined slightly. Crude oil prices rose, and WTI stood above $75 again to a nearly one month high. The rapid spread of Omicron variant virus, but the symptoms seem to be milder than those of the previous variant; The market hopes that Omicron will have a weak impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported, mainly because Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. However, in December, PTA went out of stock as a whole, and there were a lot of plant maintenance and production reduction. At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of PTA industry was around 75%. With the short stop of 6 million ton plant of yishanhua in the middle of the month, the operation quickly fell to 61%, and then restarted one after another, rising to the current 80%. At present, the market supply is still sufficient. Most of the offers of downstream polyester plants are hard demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The start-up of the downstream polyester industry in December remained around 80%, and the change was not too great. Due to the weak terminal demand, the polyester market mainly fell. With the boost of the cost side, there was a slight rebound at the end of the month, and the monthly decline of each product was around 2%. The poor downstream demand led to the decline of PX price.
From the perspective of PX products in 2021, the total national PX capacity is 28.815 million tons, and the domestic new capacity is 2.75 million tons. The statistics of domestic new capacity are as follows:
It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity increases and domestic supply increases. The annual operating rate of PX is about 764%, and the annual output is expected to be about 22 million tons. The domestic spot supply of p-xylene is still insufficient, and the domestic p-xylene is still highly dependent on foreign countries, which makes the domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. In 2021, there is little new capacity to increase production, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend increases. However, PX products are in the era of negative profit in 2021. The profit trend of production process with naphtha as raw material is shown in the figure below:
There are two PX production processes, one is naphtha as the main raw material, and the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, there is no profit in producing PX with naphtha as raw material. In addition, the production of PX with MX as raw material has always been in negative profit, and the annual average profit is – 70 US dollars / ton. The negative profit has become the new normal in 2021.
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Part of domestic PX is separated from mixed xylene. The price of crude oil and domestic mixed xylene are also factors affecting the price trend of domestic p-xylene market. The price trend of crude oil and mixed xylene rose sharply in 2021. International crude oil performance rose as a whole, supply tightened and demand recovered, and higher prices were the main theme. According to the trend chart of xylene, the market price of mixed xylene rose sharply in 2021, with an overall increase of 48.73%. In the first quarter, the price of mixed xylene plummeted, and the sharp contradiction between global PX supply and demand led to PX entering a negative profit era.
97% of PX in China is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2021, it is obvious from the above figure that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite close. The market prices of PX and PTA in China have risen sharply, but the processing costs have been rising, and some PTA manufacturers have suffered serious losses.
It can be seen from the domestic PX price trend chart in recent five years that the PX price in 2021 is higher than the average price in 2020. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is great pressure on the sharp rise of PX market prices in Asia in 2022. There is excess PX capacity in Asia, the weak trend of PX market prices in Asia is more clear, and the rising pressure is huge. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase significantly. Although new units are still put into operation in domestic PTA enterprises next year and the demand is increased, the new PX production capacity is greater, including the 4 million T / a PX unit of Dongfang Shenghong and the 2 million T unit of phase II of CICC. The PX self supply rate is gradually increased, the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced and the domestic supply and demand will be improved, However, the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus, and there is great pressure on PX exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is very likely to sell profits to China and compete with domestic enterprises. PX production losses will continue. Therefore, PX will still maintain a weak pattern in 2022, and PX negative profits have become a normal state. However, affected by the boost of international crude oil prices, PX market prices have been supported by certain costs, The average price in the domestic market is about 5200 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the peak sales season of textile in spring, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is 7000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of domestic new production capacity, the domestic low price is also expected to be about 4500 yuan / ton.
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