This week (3.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia market rebounded, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rebounded slightly, the market was weak and stable at the beginning of the week, and the market began to pick up gradually in the middle of the week. It is mainly driven by the downstream urea market. Enterprises turn to urea more, resulting in lower ammonia volume and tight supply, which improves the market. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 3.02%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4300-4500 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, this week, the overall ammonia release in many places in China decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the supply of manufacturers decreased slightly. With the rise of urea market and the continuous expansion of profits from liquid ammonia and urea, enterprises have switched to urea. Many large factories in Shandong, Shanxi and other places have switched to urea, and the supporting facilities in the lower reaches of Western Shandong have been restored. Some enterprises in Hubei have stopped for maintenance, such as Xiangyun, Yihua and sanning. Narrow supply is the fundamental reason to support the rise of liquid ammonia price.

On the cost side, the upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price fluctuates lower. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. However, the price of natural gas is still high, which has a great driving effect on gas head enterprises.

On the demand side, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2732.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2902.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.22%, up 38.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Agricultural demand has started and industrial demand has increased. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the supply of urea is sufficient, and the slight rise of urea in the future is the main.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, but the opening of the curve has expanded recently, and urea is obviously better than liquid ammonia. The strong profit of urea has led ammonia enterprises to switch to urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head rises. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the performance of liquid ammonia is also good, but the performance of downstream is weak except urea plate.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight, and the market is expected to continue to improve, but we still need to pay attention to the degree of demand recovery and the duration of downstream urea market. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia may still increase in the near future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 generally rose last week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of March 14, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprises was about 16500 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.65% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream, caprolactam and its raw material pure benzene were still supported by the rise of crude oil price last week, the remote cost strengthened, and the enterprise raised the price. Near the weekend, crude oil callback, caprolactam horizontal consolidation. In the short term, the price position of raw materials will continue to be high, and the orders in the early stage will be delivered one after another. It is expected that the price of caprolactam may be strong.

After the price of caprolactam in the upstream rose, the cost side support of PA6 strengthened. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is relatively stable at 70%. Due to the increasing uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market is worried about the supply fluctuation of energy and other bulk commodities in the future. The petrochemical industry chain may remain high in the short term, and PA6 news and cost side support is strong. Last week, the supply side continued the previous abundant pattern, and the demand of downstream enterprises was flat. In addition to contract production and delivery, there were few large-scale goods preparation on site. The weakness of downstream purchasing caused the shortage of PA6 after rising, and the trading situation was poor within the week. The main benefit of PA6 was still the cost side.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated Youzhang last week, the trend of caprolactam rose, and the cost support of PA6 strengthened. The terminal demand weakened, and the buyer’s resistance to the high price supply led to the rise and fall of PA6. It is expected that the PA6 market may remain strong and volatile in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market continued to rise this week, and the spot prices of various brands increased to a certain extent. As of March 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14700 yuan / ton, up or down + 4.26% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene strengthened and rose this week. International crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene also increased greatly, and the cost side gave strong support to styrene. At present, the spot supply is reduced slightly, the downstream is dominated by digestion contracts, and the spot trading is acceptable. The styrene market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

Acrylonitrile market is warmer this week. At present, the cost side support of acrylonitrile is stronger, and enterprises raise product prices. In terms of industry load, some enterprises have maintenance plans in the near future, and the supply is expected to shrink in the short term. However, the period of rapid production of the industry is not over, and there are still enterprises in operation in the near future. The inventory position of midstream merchants has been partially digested, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term.

The domestic butadiene market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise of crude oil affected the increase of butadiene cost pressure. Under the negative expectation of the inventory reduction of some cracking units, the market supply side was supported. At the same time, the news side boosted by the sharp rise of crude oil. The prices of domestic butadiene suppliers increased continuously, and some bidding sources increased significantly, driving the spot market to break through 10000 quickly.

This week, the market of ABS upstream three materials is OK, and the cost side support is stronger. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. The ABS market is still in the high inventory position of enterprises and downstream, which is affected by pressure. In the early stage, the terminal enterprises return to work and the demand is launched, and the trading volume is large in stages. In addition, the uncertainty of the current situation in Eastern Europe has increased, and the main positive factor in the market is the remote upstream. However, the spot price shrinks, and the mentality of businesses weakens.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continues to rise this week, and the trend of upstream three materials rises, which has strong support for the cost side of ABS. The spot supply of ABS enterprises remains at a high level. At present, the downstream demand is more and more cautious due to the impact of spot price rise, and the digestion of domestic inventory location is slow. It is expected that the spot market of ABS may be dominated by shock consolidation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 10, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8833 yuan / ton. Compared with March 6 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8633 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 2.32%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the overall domestic n-propanol market continued to rise steadily. From the beginning of this week (7th), driven by the rise of raw materials and supported by costs, the domestic n-propanol market has operated strongly. The overall market price of n-propanol in Shandong has increased slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand side of n-propanol is relatively normal, the downstream procurement is mainly rigid demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is acceptable. As of March 10, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8300-8650 yuan / ton, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the outer disc price of ethylene rose this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1317.50/ton, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1423.75/ton, an increase of 8.06%. The current price rose by 12.55% month on month, and the current price rose by 19.14% year-on-year. This week, the external ethylene market generally showed an upward trend. The market price of ethylene in Asia rose sharply. As of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton. European ethylene market prices rose sharply. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1582-1592 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1381-1390 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 9th, the price was 794-812 yuan / ton. The external ethylene market rose sharply this week, which was mainly affected by the sharp rise of upstream crude oil. The price rise was gratifying, and the rise of ethylene in Europe and Asia was relatively large.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is mild, and the downstream demand is mainly on demand. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that the short-term domestic n-propanol market is mainly high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes of supply and demand.

The lead market (2.25-3.4) rose first and then fell this week. The average price of the domestic market was 15430 yuan / ton last weekend and 15365 yuan / ton this weekend, down 0.42% this week.

The K-bar chart of commodity price uses the concept of K-line of price trend to reflect the weekly or monthly price changes in the form of bar chart. Investors can buy and sell investment according to the changes of K-bar chart. Red means: rising; Green means: falling; The height of K column indicates the range of rise and fall.

According to the price monitoring of the business community, there are 12 commodities in the non-ferrous sector that have increased month on month in the list of commodity prices in the 9th week of 2022 (2.28-3.4). The top three commodities are nickel (4.98%), metallic silicon (3.69%) and aluminum (3.27%). There are 5 kinds of commodities with a month on month decrease, and 2 kinds of commodities with a decrease of more than 5%, accounting for 8.7% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were electrolytic manganese (- 10.40%), magnesium (- 7.61%) and dysprosium ferroalloy (- 1.12%). The average rise and fall this week was 0.26%.

After the 25th, under the influence of Russia and Ukraine, the external metal rebounded sharply, and Lun lead was boosted by the main actors, which once rose to a high in recent March. The spot market rose first and then fell this week. Basically, the downstream battery industry is about to enter the traditional off-season in March. The overall market mentality is weak, and the output of battery enterprises is expected to decline. At present, the price advantage of recycled lead is obvious, and some demand turns to the recycled lead market, which once again affects the mentality of the primary lead market. At present, the social inventory is still on the high side, dragging down the market mentality, and the price is down near the weekend. Overall, the current lead inventory has an increasing trend, high inventory has dragged down the performance of the domestic market, and the performance of the spot market is weak.

In the future market, the business society believes that at present, the downstream has entered the traditional off-season, and the demand support is weak. In addition, the overall high lead ingot inventory affects the rising space of lead price. At present, the metal market is generally stronger under the influence of the international situation. The price of lead is difficult to have a large upper space due to the restriction of demand and high inventory. It is expected to be stable and strong.

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the average market price of domestic liquid caprolactam was 13587 yuan / ton on February 28 and 13900 yuan / ton on March 6. The price of caprolactam rose 2.30% this week.

2、 Market analysis

Caprolactam prices rose this week. Due to the rise of crude oil this week, the price of raw material pure benzene rises, and the cost is supported. Downstream procurement is mainly contract orders, and the demand needs to be followed up. As of March 6, the price of Sinopec caprolactam liquid was 14200 yuan / ton. The price of Baling Hengyi caprolactam liquid is 14200 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. The price of caprolactam liquid of Baling Petrochemical is 14200 yuan / ton, 450000 tons / year. The unit is started normally and delivered after acceptance. Shandong Luxi Chemical Liquid caprolactam liquid has no quotation, and the manufacturer’s production capacity is 300000 tons. The price of Shandong Hualu Hengsheng caprolactam bulk water is 14300 yuan / ton, which is accepted and sent to East China, and the manufacturer’s unit capacity is 300000 tons / year.

Raw material pure benzene fell narrowly in the first half of the week and rebounded broadly in the second half of the week. Due to the loss of profits of downstream main products, some units have reduced the load and stopped, and the demand for pure benzene is insufficient; Shandong local refining enterprises generally take goods; Superimposed on the weak price of styrene, pure benzene weakened slightly at the beginning of the week. In the second half of the week, affected by the escalation of geopolitical tensions, crude oil soared and the external market rose, driving the domestic pure benzene market to rise. This week, Sinopec raised the price of pure benzene twice, a total of 600 yuan / ton to 8500 yuan / ton.

3、 Future forecast

Caprolactam analysts of business society believe that due to the recent sharp rise in crude oil prices and the continuous rise in the price of raw material pure benzene, caprolactam is the main player in the market. It is expected that the caprolactam market will continue to rise in the short term. It is suggested to pay attention to the changes in raw material prices.

Data monitoring shows that in the first week of March (1-6), the mainstream price of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China’s domestic market decreased slightly by about 0.84%. Among them, the quotation on the 1st was 17014.29 yuan / ton, and the mainstream quotation on the 6th was about 16871.43 yuan / ton, with small overall change.

Industrial chain: according to the data of business agency, the mainstream market of upstream raw material acrylic acid was stable at about 16033.33 yuan / ton in the current week (January 6), its production enterprises started normally and the market inventory was sufficient; Weak downstream demand and sluggish transaction; The inventory situation of the enterprise is different, and the price is adjusted slightly according to the inventory situation. The upstream raw material acrylonitrile has been steadily increased by about 300 yuan / ton since February 28, and the average price in the domestic market in the first week of March is about 11450 yuan / ton. Under the influence of geopolitical factors, the international crude oil rose sharply. The market price of propylene, the raw material of both, continued to rise, the cost support was strengthened, the overhaul of some units was expected, the downstream demand was gradually restored, and the market was high. It is expected that the market situation of acrylic acid and acrylonitrile may be good luck in the short term.

Liquefied natural gas is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market weakened significantly in the week (January 6), with the average price of 7104 yuan / ton on the 6th, down 15.89% from 8446 yuan / ton on the 1st. Affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the price of natural gas in Europe is rising, but the domestic natural gas market is currently in sufficient supply. With the rise of temperature, the market has gradually entered the off-season of consumption. It is expected that the price of domestic liquefied natural gas will continue to fall.

Future forecast: affected by the situation in Russia and Ukraine, international crude oil rose, propylene and liquefied gas were affected rapidly, the market was strong, and the upstream support of polyacrylamide was good; On the supply side, the enterprise has sufficient inventory; Downstream end: the demand is relatively stable, and its driving effect on the price is not obvious; Circulation end: normal logistics and reasonable cost. As for the future, the analysis of business society believes that the biggest impact on polyacrylamide in the near future is the support and promotion of upstream costs. It pays close attention to the development of International Geopolitics and the impact on bulk raw materials.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market rose in early March, and the spot prices of various brands increased by a narrow margin. As of March 4, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14250 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 1.06% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene fluctuated and rose this week. International crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene also increased greatly, and the cost side gave strong support to styrene. At present, on the inventory side, the market supply is still abundant, the downstream is expected to maintain rigid demand, and the supply and demand side continues to be deadlocked. Styrene is likely to follow the trend of crude oil. On the whole, if the raw material level is strong or continues to rise next week, the styrene market will continue to consolidate and rise.

Acrylonitrile market warmed up this week. Recently, the cost side support of acrylonitrile has strengthened, and enterprises have raised product prices. However, the shipment of new equipment put into operation in the early stage has impacted the market, and the current inventory of enterprises and midstream merchants is high. Although the cost pressure may reduce the operating rate of a certain industry in the short term, the current stock volume in the floor still narrows the range of this round of rising market.

This week, the domestic butadiene market finished high and upward. Crude oil prices rose sharply during the week, boosting the mentality of businesses; At the same time, the higher prices of crude oil and naphtha affect the cost of butadiene. Businessmen expect that the devices of some personal production enterprises may be reduced in the later stage. In addition, the restart of accident devices in South Korea is delayed, and the supply side news supports the market. In addition, the internal and external prices are strong, and the domestic butadiene market is mainly high in the short term.

3. At the beginning of the year, the prices of three materials in the upstream of ABS rose together, and the cost side support strengthened. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. The ABS market is still in the high inventory position of enterprises and downstream, which is affected by pressure. However, in early March, the terminal enterprises resumed work and the demand was fully developed, and the market demand was phased and large-scale. Coupled with the tense situation in Eastern Europe, market concerns may affect the stability of petrochemical supply chain. Therefore, the mentality of merchants has been repaired, the willingness to offer a high price has increased, and try to make a high price.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS rose slightly in early March, and the trend of upstream three materials rose, which has strong support for the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot supply continues to be abundant, and the load of ABS enterprises is at a high level. At present, the downstream demand is phased and large, the on-site trading has warmed up, and the domestic inventory position is being digested. It is expected that the spot market of ABS may still strengthen slightly in the short term.

1、 Price summary of mixed xylene on March 2:

Qingdao refinery offers 7950 yuan / ton, Shijiazhuang Refinery offers 7800 yuan / ton,

Jiujiang Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, and Yangba offers 7900 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical offers 8100 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical offers 8050 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 8100 yuan / ton,

Shandong Jingbo Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical offers 8000 yuan / ton, and Hongrun offers 8150 yuan / ton.

2、 Fluctuation trend:

 
3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the situation in Ukraine remains tense, and European and American countries have increased sanctions against Russia. The market is expected that the sanctions imposed on Russia may lead to a large number of divestments of oil assets. The expectation of crude oil supply shortage in the next few months is further strengthened, and the fear of supply interruption is intensified. The international oil price soared yesterday. According to EIA data, US commercial crude oil inventories fell 2.6 million barrels month on month in the week ended February 25.

Today, Sinopec East China mixed xylene price increased by 250 yuan / ton, South China mixed xylene price increased by 300 yuan / ton, Xinhai Petrochemical mixed xylene increased by 50 yuan / ton, and Jingbo Petrochemical mixed xylene increased by 100 yuan / ton.

Yesterday, the international oil price soared, the outer disk Asia mixed xylene rose broadly, and the market focus rose. Sinopec raised the price of mixed xylene, and the market actively followed the rise. The short-term trend of mixed xylene is mainly affected by the price of crude oil and gasoline and diesel oil.

In February, the domestic Shunding market rose first and then fell. According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 28, the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber was 13690 yuan / ton, down 0.07% from 13700 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 14000 yuan / ton.

The price of raw butadiene rose sharply, supported by the cost side, driving the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber higher in the first half of the month. In addition, the loose supply of cis-polybutadiene rubber and the weak downstream demand for cis-polybutadiene rubber had a negative impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber, resulting in a slight decline in the price of cis-polybutadiene rubber in the second half of the month.

According to the business agency, Wanda and Qixiang devices were restarted to normal operation, Qilu, Lande and Zhenhua were reduced to negative operation, and Huayu rubber was temporarily stopped; In February, the overall start-up of polybutadiene rubber decreased slightly.

In February, the raw material butadiene rose sharply, and the cost was supported by styrene butadiene rubber. According to the monitoring of business society, as of February 28, the price of butadiene was 8372 yuan / ton, up 30.09% from 6436 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

In February, the natural rubber market fluctuated and consolidated. As of February 28, the price was 13114 yuan / ton, down 1.10% from 13260 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month; The high point in the month was 13880 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that the supply side is slightly reduced, but the pressure is still on, the cost side is significantly higher, which supports CIS polybutadiene rubber, and the demand is weak. It is expected that the price of CIS polybutadiene rubber will fluctuate and consolidate in the later stage.