1、 Trend analysis

As shown in the above figure, the domestic nickel market rose sharply in 2021. According to the data monitoring of business society, the nickel price was 128133.33 yuan / ton at the beginning of 2021 and 150400 yuan / ton at the end of 2021, an increase of 17.38%. Looking at the trend of nickel throughout the year, the nickel price first fell to the lowest price of 120816.67 yuan / ton on April 21, and then rose to the highest price of 159866.67 yuan / ton on October 16, with an amplitude of 32.32%.

As shown in the above figure, from the current comparison chart of nickel in business society, the current trend of nickel in 2021 is basically the same, and the futures price is very close to the spot price. Near the end of the year, the price spread expanded and the main basis was positive, which was bad for buying hedging.

2、 Market analysis

In 2021, nickel price is divided into four stages:

Slight rise (from January to the end of February): from January to the end of February, it is the Chinese Spring Festival. After the Spring Festival, the downstream production and work resume, the demand increases, and the nickel price rises slightly.

Cliff fall (from the end of February to the end of April): on March 3, an important news was released in the market. Qingshan industry signed a high nickel matte supply agreement with Huayou cobalt industry and Zhongwei Co., Ltd. the three parties jointly agreed that Qingshan industry will supply 60000 tons of high nickel matte to Huayou cobalt industry and 40000 tons of high nickel matte to Zhongwei Co., Ltd. from October 2021. The economy of producing nickel sulfate with high nickel matte is better than that of producing sulfur with nickel beans The economy of acid nickel is competitive with nickel, so the successful preparation and test of high matte nickel threatens the underlying logic of nickel fundamentals, seriously hits the nickel market, and nickel drops sharply.

All the way up (from the end of April to the beginning of September): Although the nickel price plummeted due to the high matte nickel incident, the nickel market returned to the fundamentals after the news that it still takes time to implement and the uncertainty of production scale and delivery. In terms of supply, the supply of nickel ore is constantly disturbed, and vale suspended the operation of nickel ore in Sudbury, Canada due to the breakdown of labor negotiations Affected by gas and epidemic situation, Philippine shipments are also relatively small. The pressure at the far end of nickel supply end is large. On the demand side, the development of new energy industry boosts the demand for nickel, and the demand for new energy is at a high level.

Wide range shock (from early September to the end of the year): in the fourth quarter, the supply of nickel ore was still tight, the global nickel supply was short, and the nickel ore giants reduced production to varying degrees. However, due to domestic production and power restriction, poor demand and weak supply and demand, the nickel price fluctuated at a high level.

To sum up, affected by the abundant global liquidity, the continuous decline of dominant inventory and the shortage of nickel supply, the nickel price shows an upward trend as a whole. In 2022, the global liquidity may be tightened, the dual control of domestic energy consumption will be relaxed, and the demand will increase. The green demand for new energy is still good, but the impact of high nickel matte may be greater, and the supply tends to be loose. Under the condition of both supply and demand, it is expected that the nickel price in 2022 may be weaker than that in 2021, and the price range is 130000-150000 yuan / ton.