In 2021, the market of butadiene rubber fluctuated and rose. According to the monitoring of business society, the low price was 10490 yuan / ton at the beginning of the year, and the high price was 16120 yuan / ton at the end of November, with an amplitude of 53.67%; The price at the end of the year was 14290 yuan / ton, an increase of 34.30% over the beginning of the year.

From the beginning of the year to the end of March, the price of polybutadiene rubber rose from 10640 yuan / ton on January 1 to 13575 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 27.58%. There are three main reasons: first, the demand for recovery in the downstream after the epidemic increased rapidly; Secondly, the “extremely cold weather” in the United States has pushed up the price of crude oil and brought a tide of rising prices of global commodities; Finally, the unexpected shutdown of Yangzi and Maoming Petrochemical Shunding units further tightened the supply side; The three factors jointly promoted the sharp rise in the price of polybutadiene rubber from the first quarter to the beginning of the second quarter.

Since the end of March, on the one hand, affected by the re outbreak of the epidemic in foreign countries, foreign automobile and tire factories have been closed and shut down more, affecting tire exports and weakening rubber demand; On the other hand, the raw material butadiene fell sharply in March and April, dragging the cost side; The attack from upstream and downstream and the sharp decline in the price of natural rubber jointly dragged polybutadiene rubber out of a wave of decline from April to June. The price fell from 13575 yuan / ton to 11910 yuan / ton on June 10, down 12.27%.

6. In July, the international crude oil price continued to rise. The main contract price of WTI reached 75.23 yuan / ton on July 2, driving the raw material butadiene to reach the annual high of 11482 yuan / ton on July 20. The cost formed a strong support for cis-polybutadiene rubber. The price of cis-polybutadiene rubber rose sharply from June to July, from 11910 yuan / ton to 14690 yuan / ton on July 19, an increase of 23.34%.

From July to September, the operating rate of domestic cis-polybutadiene rubber was higher than that in the first half of the year, and the supply was mainly loose. In addition, the price of raw butadiene fell sharply, which once again formed a great negative on the cost side; In addition, the novel coronavirus pneumonia was diagnosed as a new global variant in August. The new variant strain of the delta brought shadow to the commodity market. The market of butadiene rubber dropped again, and the price dropped from 14690 yuan / ton to 13000 yuan / ton in September 21st, or 11.50%. 200 million.

The domestic policy of “dual control of energy efficiency” was launched in September. Affected by the policy, the supply of polybutadiene rubber tightened. In addition, the world began to fall into an “energy crisis” in October, and the international crude oil price soared again. On October 27, the main contract of WTI crude oil soared to US $84.65/barrel. Under the influence of both cost and supply factors, Polybutadiene rubber formed an “m” double roof at 15380 yuan / ton on October 22 and 16120 yuan / ton on December 1. After that, due to the difficulty of keeping up with the demand, polybutadiene rubber finally fell back to around 14290 yuan / ton at the end of the year.

In 2021, the price of raw butadiene rose and fell sharply, and the cost side was supported in the early stage and dragged down in the later stage. From the price comparison chart of butadiene butadiene butadiene rubber, after the price comparison between the two reached the same in June in the first half of the year, the trend difference in the second half of the year gradually expanded, and the trend of butadiene rubber in the second half of the year is basically not subject to cost constraints.

In 2021, the natural rubber market fluctuated sharply at the beginning of the year, and mainly fluctuated slightly in the later stage. The large rise of natural rubber in the early stage boosted cis-polybutadiene rubber. In the later stage, when the supply and demand side of natural rubber weakened slightly, the trend showed a small fluctuation, and the impact on cis-polybutadiene rubber weakened.

In 2021, after COVID-19′s rapid economic recovery and monetary easing, the price of butadiene rubber hit a three year high.

In 2021, the monthly tire output was high before and low after, and the rise of CIS polybutadiene rubber in the first half of the year was mainly driven by strong demand; The second half of the year was mainly affected by cost, policy and supply.

Future forecast: business analysts believe that, first, it is difficult for the international crude oil price to decline in the short term, coupled with the rebound of butadiene, the cost support will strengthen in the short term; In the long term novel coronavirus pneumonia is being developed, once the drug is contained, the epidemic control will be relaxed again. The global economy will recover strongly, and the demand will be better throughout the year. In addition, under inflationary pressure, the Fed’s expectation of raising interest rates rises, and the monetary tightening will bring some negative fluctuations to the market, so we need to be vigilant. Overall, the butadiene rubber market will continue to rebound slightly in the first quarter of 2022, and will continue to fluctuate and rise in the later period.

Commodity index: on January 15, the polyacrylamide commodity index was 105.09, down 0.18 points from yesterday, down 5.76% from the highest point 111.51 in the cycle (2021-11-03), and up 26.78% from the lowest point 82.89 on August 2, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from April 1, 2019 to now)

Commodity market: data monitoring shows that in the first half of the month, the domestic market of polyacrylamide (CPAM, cation, molecular weight of 12 million, 10-30 ionic degree) in China still maintained a slight downward trend. The mainstream market price was about 17342.86 yuan / ton on the 1st and about 17200 yuan / ton on the 15th, with a range of 0.82%. At present, the epidemic situation is severe and the Spring Festival is approaching. More enterprises stopped production before the year, with sufficient inventory, general demand and weak transaction; Different enterprises have different prices due to the impact of inventory. Some enterprises have tight inventory recently after they stopped production years ago, and their prices have increased to a certain extent.

Industrial chain: acrylic acid: in the first half of the month, the market price in East China increased by 3.28% from 13200 yuan / ton to 13633.33 yuan / ton; The acrylic acid market is steadily rising this week. Recently, the price of raw propylene is relatively strong, the cost support is rising, the unit load of some factories is reduced, the market supply is reduced, the downstream is orderly prepared, and the market negotiation focus is high. It is expected that the acrylic acid market will mainly operate at a high level in the short term, so more attention should be paid to the market news guidance. Acrylonitrile: Since New Year’s day, the mainstream market of raw acrylonitrile has fallen every day. In the first half of the month, acrylonitrile has been significantly reduced by about 1950 yuan / ton. At present, the mainstream market quotation has fallen to about 11450 yuan / ton. In conclusion, recently, the cost of polyacrylamide raw materials continues to decline sharply, the support continues to weaken rapidly, and the wait-and-see atmosphere of downstream procurement is strong.

LNG is used in the production process. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the domestic LNG market fluctuated and decreased in the first half of the month. The average domestic price was 4710 yuan / ton on January 1 and 4610 yuan / ton on January 15, down 2.12%. The domestic liquid market has changed from continuous rising after the festival to frequent falling, and the price has also continued to decline. The decline was mainly due to the start-up and resumption of production of the early maintenance liquid plant and the increase of market supply. However, due to the impact of recent public health events in Henan and other places, the start-up of some end users was limited, the demand decreased, the shipping atmosphere of the liquid plant weakened, the sales pressure increased, the prices fell again and again, and many fell back below 5000 yuan, and the market focus moved down rapidly. The LNG analyst of business society believes that under the current situation of increasing supply and decreasing demand in the market, the domestic liquid market is weak. Although the raw material gas flow auction boosts the market, the decline of domestic liquid price slows down or rises slightly, it is difficult to form an inflection point. It is expected that the domestic LNG market will be mainly adjusted in a narrow range.

Future forecast: the market of raw material acrylonitrile continues to decline, with a cumulative decline of nearly 2000 yuan / ton so far this month; The price of raw material acrylic acid is still weak and rising, and the market trading is dominated by rigid demand; The cost fell sharply and the support of polyacrylamide market continued to weaken. Although more enterprises have stopped production due to the impact of the epidemic and spring break, the market supply is sufficient, the downstream procurement willingness is not strong, and the trading continues to be weak. On the whole, according to different inventory conditions, some enterprises have insufficient inventory and the price increases accordingly; Under the dual influence of industrial chain cost transmission and weak downstream procurement, the prices of some enterprises will be stable and lower before the year in order to withdraw funds; Secondly, the logistics cost will increase the commodity cost to a certain extent due to the impact of the epidemic and the Spring Festival. It is reported that the range in Henan is nearly 20%, and the future market of polyacrylamide will rise due to this impact.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of January 14, the average quotation price of domestic premium DMF enterprises was 16200.00 yuan / ton. The DMF price fluctuated upward this week, up 1.89% compared with the same period last week. In the short term, the DMF trend is stable, medium and strong.

This week, the DMF market is rising in a narrow range, the price is dominant, and the focus of negotiation is high. Compared with the same period last week, the price increases by 1.89%. At present, the manufacturer has positive shipments, general inventory, stable operating rate, no pressure on inventory, and just needs to purchase in the downstream.

The overall upstream methanol market is mainly stable. The negotiated intended price of methanol in southern Shandong is about 2520 yuan / ton. The factory provides cash exchange. Linyi receives local goods for negotiation. The intended price is about 2520 yuan / ton and is sent to cash exchange. There is little offer for logistics goods. The trading atmosphere was average. The methanol market in central Shandong is negotiated to be delivered to spot exchange at 2280-2300 yuan / ton.

On January 13, the chemical index was 1107 points, up 6 points from yesterday, down 20.93% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 85.12% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

DMF analysts of business agency believe that the trend of DMF is stable and strong in the short term. (to know more about the latest industry market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the price of commodities).

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the domestic isopropanol market price fluctuated this week. The price of isopropanol increased tentatively in the middle of the week. After the shock, the price at the weekend was the same as that at the beginning of the week, with an average price of 7166.67 yuan / ton.

2、 Market analysis

Figure: comparison of price trend of acetone and isopropanol from November to January

The market price of isopropanol was mainly stable this week. The overall market trading atmosphere is general, the Spring Festival is approaching, and traders mainly wait and see. Up to now, most of the quotations of isopropanol in Shandong are about 6900-7100 yuan / ton; Most of the quotation range of Jiangsu isopropanol is about 7300 yuan / ton; The quotation range of isopropanol in Zhejiang is around 7100 yuan / ton. Internationally, on January 11, the U.S. isopropanol closed stable, and the European isopropanol market closed with a downward focus.

In terms of raw acetone, the market price of acetone was basically stable this week. The trading atmosphere is relatively flat, the enterprise’s production is stable, the inventory is in the middle, and the delivery of goods remains stable. According to the commodity data monitoring, the average price of acetone this week was 5450 yuan / ton. The business club expects the short-term acetone market range to be adjusted with limited fluctuation.

In terms of raw propylene, the price of propylene stopped falling and rebounded this week. So far, the quotation of propylene in Shandong market is 7800-7900 yuan / ton. From the market point of view, the delivery of goods by enterprises is stable, the inventory is OK, and the downstream demand is mainly just needed. Near the Spring Festival, some downstream factories have parking plans, and the market trading has not decreased significantly for the time being.

3、 Future forecast

The isopropanol analyst of the chemical branch of business society believes that at present, the export orders of domestic factories are mainly, the inventory is low, and the domestic isopropanol market demand is general. The price of acetone was relatively stable, the price of propylene stopped falling and rebounded, and the support of raw materials for isopropanol was acceptable. The price of isopropanol is expected to be stable in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business society, as of January 12, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8466 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 9 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8733 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 267 yuan / ton, a decrease of 3.05%. Compared with the price on January 1 (the reference average price of n-propanol was 8883 yuan / ton), the average price was reduced by 417 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.69%.

This week, the domestic n-propanol market showed a downward trend. The n-propanol plant of Shandong Dachang was put into operation, and the on-site supply of n-propanol increased. Since the end of last week, the domestic n-propanol market has fluctuated. This week, with the increase of on-site supply, the downstream demand of n-propanol is still dominated by rigid demand, and the effective support on the site is insufficient. The market price of Shandong Dachang n-propanol began to decrease gradually at the beginning of this week (10th). At present, as of 12th, The ex factory price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8000-8300 yuan / ton, the low-end price is 7900 yuan / ton, the market situation of n-propanol in Nanjing is temporarily stable, the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9200 yuan / ton, and the high-end price is 9500 yuan / ton. At present, the overall trading atmosphere of the propanol market is general, and the downstream demand side is calm. Local dealers still have reservations about the price. The price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, on January 11, the Asian ethylene market quoted CFR Northeast Asia at USD 971-981 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia at USD 961-971 / ton. On January 11, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1564-1575 / ton, up US $2 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1448-1457 / ton, up US $7 / ton. On January 11, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $915-933 / ton, up US $15 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market has risen and the demand is general.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, as the Spring Festival approaches, the downstream has started to prepare goods one after another, and the downstream demand for n-propanol may rise in stages. Therefore, the analysts of business society think that in the short term, the domestic n-propanol market will stop falling and stabilize, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

According to the monitoring data of business society, as of January 11, 2022, the average ex factory price of domestic industrial grade dimethyl carbonate is 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on January 1, 2022 (the reference price is 8733 yuan / ton), the average price is increased by 267 yuan / ton, or 3.05%.

From the business data monitoring chart, it can be seen that in January, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market as a whole operated steadily upward. After the new year’s Day holiday, on the 4th and 5th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market was steadily sorted and operated, the on-site inventory was low, the spot supply pressure was small, and the downstream demand performed well. With the support of both supply and demand, on the 6th, the domestic dimethyl carbonate ex factory price increased steadily by 100-200 yuan / ton, and the average ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate exceeded 8800 yuan / ton, Subsequently, the dimethyl carbonate market continued to operate high and stable, the factory offer was firm, and the low price in the floor gradually decreased. On the 11th, with the support of tight spot supply, the transaction focus of dimethyl carbonate moved upward again. The ex factory price of dimethyl carbonate was near 8800-9200 yuan / ton, and the average price was 9000 yuan / ton. Compared with before the festival, the cumulative increase after the festival exceeded 3%.

In terms of index, the dimethyl carbonate commodity index on January 10 was 156.47, the same as yesterday, down 37.41% from the highest point of 250.00 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 56.47% from the lowest point of 100.00 on June 6, 2021. (Note: the period refers to the period from June 1, 2021 to now)

In the upstream propylene oxide Market, the recent (1.4-1.10) propylene oxide market price rose first and then stabilized. After the new year’s Day holiday, the price of raw propylene rose steadily, the cost support gradually increased, the downstream orders were released, the factory shipment improved, the inventory pressure was reduced, and the focus of market negotiation gradually increased. Near the weekend, the inventory was low, which supported the manufacturer’s mentality and supported the price offer. However, the demand end performance was cold, the market price was frozen and sorted out, and the operation was stable temporarily, On the 10th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 10700-10800 yuan / ton.

Future trend analysis

At present, the supply of dimethyl carbonate continues to be tight, the downstream continues the demand for goods preparation, and the on-site trading is acceptable. Analysts of dimethyl carbonate in business society believe that in the short term, the domestic dimethyl carbonate market will be stable and strong, and more attention needs to be paid to the basic changes in supply and demand.

1、 Price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic isobutyraldehyde market price rose sharply this week. This week, the average price of isobutyraldehyde in the mainstream domestic market increased from 9733.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 14400.00 yuan / ton this weekend, up 4666.67 yuan / ton, or 47.95%. Overall, isobutyraldehyde market rose sharply this week.

2、 Market analysis

The quotation of mainstream isobutyraldehyde manufacturers rose sharply this week: the ex factory quotation of lihuayi isobutyraldehyde this weekend was 14000 yuan / ton, an increase of 4800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Liaocheng yuanze isobutyraldehyde offered 13800 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 3800 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Zhenkun isobutyraldehyde offered 15400 yuan / ton this weekend, up 5400 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain, the propylene market in the upstream raw material market of isobutyraldehyde increased slightly this week. The quotation increased from 7548.60 yuan / ton last weekend to 7850.80 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 4.00%, an increase of 7.21% over the same period last year. The market price of upstream raw materials increased slightly, and the cost support was strengthened. Affected by the supply and demand side, it had a positive impact on the price of isobutyraldehyde. From the downstream industrial chain, the market price of neopentyl glycol rose sharply, and the quotation increased from 13333.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 16020.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 20.15%. The market of neopentyl glycol rose sharply and the spot market was tight, which had a positive impact on isobutyraldehyde.

3、 Future forecast

The market trend of isobutyraldehyde in the middle and late January may rise slightly. The upstream propylene market rose slightly, the cost support was strengthened, the downstream neopentyl glycol market rose sharply, and the downstream procurement enthusiasm was good. Isobutyraldehyde analysts of business society believe that the isobutyraldehyde market may rise slightly under the influence of supply and demand and raw materials in the short-term isobutyraldehyde market.

1、 Price trend

According to commodity data monitoring, the price of yellow phosphorus in Yunnan and Guizhou decreased. The average price of yellow phosphorus was 40666.67 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week and 34333.33 yuan / ton at the weekend. The price decreased by 15.57% during the week.

2、 Market analysis

Yellow phosphorus prices fell this week. After the new year’s Day holiday, the operating rate of yellow phosphorus has increased, the overall market is relatively cold, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is strong. The transaction in the yellow phosphorus market is weak and downward, and the inquiry is general. It is mainly just needed and can be used as needed. Up to now, the mainstream quotation of yellow phosphorus is about 34000-35000 yuan / ton.

In terms of phosphate rock, after the new year’s Day holiday, the domestic phosphate rock market mainly operates stably, and the average market price of 30% grade phosphate rock in China is 690 yuan / ton. On the eve of the Spring Festival, the supply of phosphate rock is mainly contract old customers, and the external quotation of enterprises mostly holds the early price. The phosphate rock analyst of business society believes that in the short term, the domestic phosphate rock market will continue to consolidate at a high level, and more attention needs to be paid to the news changes of supply and demand.

In terms of coke and coking coal, the market has been stable and good in the near future. Recently, the production of coal mines has been reduced more by various factors, the supply of coking coal has been tightened, and some coal types have rebounded slightly. Recently, the downstream coke procurement is good and the demand support is strong. In terms of the coke market, after the first round of increase landed, some enterprises in the main production areas of Shanxi, Shandong and other places opened the second round of increase of 200 yuan / ton. The coke market is improving, and the coking enterprises have a positive attitude. At present, the inventory in the plant is low, and the start-up is still low affected by production restriction. The purchasing enthusiasm of downstream steel mills remains unchanged, the expectation of resumption of production continues to increase, and most of them actively replenish the warehouse. Under the environment of tight supply and acceptable demand, the coke market is stable, medium and strong as a whole.

In terms of phosphoric acid, the market price of phosphoric acid tilts downward. According to the monitoring of business society, the average price of phosphoric acid at the beginning of the week was 11466.67 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 11166.67 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 2.62% during the week. At present, the price of raw materials is lowered, the cost support is gradually weakened, the space elasticity of adjustable prices is increased, and the market price has declined. It is expected that the phosphoric acid market may continue to decline in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The yellow phosphorus analyst of the chemical branch of the business community believes that the price of yellow phosphorus fell this week, and the downstream is more resistant to the high price of yellow phosphorus. There is more wait-and-see in the field, mainly sporadic procurement in the downstream, and the market transaction is weak and downward. It is expected that the price of yellow phosphorus will be stable temporarily in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market was weak in early January, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of January 6, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 36150 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.96% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid is slightly affected by the slight recovery of the raw material pure benzene market, the cost side is slightly improved, and the price has increased. However, the large pre maintenance factories have returned to work one after another, and the market supply is still abundant. The inventory of manufacturers and dealers rose, mainly making profit and shipping due to inventory pressure. Adiponitrile has not improved much. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market, and the supply shortage has not improved. Due to the high dependence on imports of adiponitrile, the production load of domestic PA66 enterprises is restricted by adiponitrile.

The upstream raw material adipic acid is rising steadily, the change of adiponitrile is limited, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. At present, the operating rate of the industry has recovered compared with that in the early stage, but the tight demand pattern of adiponitrile remains, and the operating rate of domestic PA66 industry is not high. The inventory in various ports is insufficient. Affected by international health events, the overseas systematic transportation capacity is insufficient, and the domestic goods are in a long-term shortage situation. In terms of demand, buyers follow up slowly with goods, there is great resistance to high price goods, the seller’s mentality is loose, and the offer is weak.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 continued to fall in early January. The shortage of adiponitrile at the raw material end has not improved, and the adipic acid market has increased slightly. The low load of PA66 enterprise due to material shortage has increased compared with that in the early stage, and the supply side’s support for spot goods is acceptable. However, downstream users have a deep resistance to high price sources, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may continue to operate in a weak adjustment in the near future.

According to statistics, the domestic market price of p-xylene rose sharply in 2021. The average price at the beginning of the year was 4700 yuan / ton, the average price at the end of the year was 6700 yuan / ton, and the annual increase was 42.55%. It can be seen from the price trend chart that the highest price of domestic PX appeared in November, the highest price was 7300 yuan / ton, the lowest price of the whole year appeared at the beginning of the year, and the lowest price was 4700 yuan / ton, The domestic p-xylene market price trend has risen sharply, and the PX market price trend is jointly affected by domestic and foreign factors.

In 2021, China’s total PX production capacity was 28.815 million tons, and the domestic new production capacity was 2.75 million tons. However, the annual operating rate was about 764%, and the total output was about 22 million tons. However, the total import volume in 2021 was about 13.5 million tons. On the whole, the external dependence of PX decreased, and the external dependence was 38% in 2021. The production of new domestic devices led to a significant increase in the domestic PX self-sufficiency rate, Compared with the self-sufficiency rate of 41% in 2020, it increased to 38%, but the external price of PX is also the most important factor affecting the domestic market price of p-xylene.

According to the domestic market price trend chart and PX external market price trend chart of the whole year, the PX market price trend can be divided into four stages: the first stage is from the beginning of the year to the end of March, when the PX market price trend rises sharply; The second stage is from April to the end of May, when the PX market price drops slightly; The third stage is from June to November, when the PX market price rises slightly; The fourth stage is December, the PX market price falling stage.

The first stage was from the beginning of the year to the end of March. The price trend of domestic PX market rose sharply. The domestic price rose from 4700 yuan / ton to 6700 yuan / ton in March, an increase of 42.55%. From the perspective of product supply, the PX supply at home and abroad has been slightly tight since 2021. The domestic PX operating rate is more than 60%, but there are more maintenance of overseas devices. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene devices in Asia is less than 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia has decreased, the closing price of PX has risen sharply, and the domestic p-xylene market has risen sharply affected by the external price. From the perspective of the industrial chain, the continuous soaring of the crude oil market in the first stage, the continuous sparing production restriction policy of the organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries and its allies (OPEC +) and the decline of U.S. commercial crude oil inventories for several weeks have paved the way for the rise of oil prices. In addition, under the background of the epidemic situation, the promotion of vaccination and the expected continuous warming of economic recovery. Since mid February, the United States has been hit by an unprecedented snowstorm. Under the influence of extremely cold weather, the refinery units in Texas have been shut down, and the rapid decline in production has gradually evolved into a short-term energy crisis, which has accelerated the pace of oil price rise. The international oil price has increased from $45 / barrel to about $65 / barrel. The downstream PTA market price trend rose sharply, and the PTA market price rose by 37.54%. During this period, the economy continued to recover, the operating rate of the textile industry gradually increased, and the upstream demand increased, resulting in a sharp rise in the prices of PX and PTA products.

The second stage was from April to the end of May. The PX market price fell slightly, and the domestic market price fell slightly from 6700 yuan / ton to 6400 yuan / ton, a decrease of 4.48%. The decline in the domestic p-xylene market price was mainly due to the increase of on-site supply and the shock of crude oil price, which led to the rise and fall of domestic petrochemical products. In the second stage, the domestic PX operating rate is more than 70%, the PX unit of Yangzi Petrochemical operates normally, the Jinling Petrochemical unit operates stably, the Qingdao Lidong unit operates at full load, the Qilu petrochemical unit operates normally, the Urumqi petrochemical unit starts at about 50%, the domestic p-xylene supply is normal, the start-up in Asia has increased, the supply has increased, and the market price will decrease slightly. During this period, the international crude oil price changed little, the epidemic in Europe rekindled, and the United States, affected by high domestic inflation, began to put pressure on OPEC to increase production and restart the Iran nuclear negotiations. The oil price was corrected during the period, and the WTI price was about $65 / barrel. The international crude oil price shock brought cost support to the PX market price, and the PX price fell slightly. The external price of PX has little change due to the influence of crude oil price. The external price of PX remains about 850 US dollars / ton. The external price has a certain guiding role for the domestic p-xylene market. The external dependence of p-xylene is still high. The rise of external price is a good support for the domestic PX market. In addition, the downstream PTA and polyester markets have weakened significantly, PTA production has suffered losses, and the demand for PX procurement is general. The domestic PX operation remains high, and the supply slightly exceeds the demand. The operators are cautious, and p-xylene fell slightly during this period.

The third stage is from June to November. The PX market price returned to the rising stage. The domestic PX market price fell from 6400 yuan / ton to 7300 yuan / ton in November, an increase of 14.06%. During this period, more than 70% of domestic PX units were started. Sinochem Hongrun Petrochemical 600000 ton unit operated stably, Yangzi petrochemical unit operated stably, Pengzhou petrochemical unit operated stably, Yangzi Petrochemical PX unit operated normally, Jinling Petrochemical unit operated stably, Qingdao Lidong unit operated at full load, Qilu petrochemical unit operated stably, and Urumqi petrochemical unit started at about 50%, The domestic p-xylene supply is general, but the operation of overseas units is general, and the domestic p-xylene price rises slightly affected. PX external price rose to US $920 / ton, which was a shock. PX external price rose, which was good for the domestic market price. During this period, crude oil rose strongly again, the energy crisis broke out, and there was an “energy shortage” in many parts of the world. In particular, there was a shortage of natural gas in Europe, electricity prices soared, and China was once short of coal and electricity. The demand for oil as an alternative energy increased, and the oil price continued to rise. For a long time, the oil price has been maintained above $80. The rise of international oil price has a certain positive impact on domestic petrochemical products, and the price trend of PX market has increased. The downstream PTA market price showed an “m” trend at this stage, but the overall price changed little. The foreign textile industry did not recover significantly, and the domestic export market did not improve. The PTA market price remained 4500-5000 yuan / ton, and the domestic p-xylene market rose supported by costs.

The fourth stage is December. In this stage, the PX price fell. As of the end of the year, the price was 6700 yuan / ton, mainly due to poor demand, which led to the decline of PX price at the beginning of the month. About 70% of domestic p-xylene was started, but the overseas units were generally started, and the trend of PX external price changed little. By the end of the year, the closing price was USD 874-876 / T FOB Korea and USD 892-894 / T CFR China. Recently, the operating rate of PX units in Asia is normal. On the whole, the operating rate of p-xylene units in Asia is about 60%, the supply of PX goods in Asia is general, and the domestic market price of p-xylene has declined slightly. Crude oil prices rose, and WTI stood above $75 again to a nearly one month high. The rapid spread of Omicron variant virus, but the symptoms seem to be milder than those of the previous variant; The market hopes that Omicron will have a weak impact on global demand in 2022 and oil prices will be supported, mainly because Saudi Arabia believes that oil supply is still very scarce. However, in December, PTA went out of stock as a whole, and there were a lot of plant maintenance and production reduction. At the beginning of the month, the operating rate of PTA industry was around 75%. With the short stop of 6 million ton plant of yishanhua in the middle of the month, the operation quickly fell to 61%, and then restarted one after another, rising to the current 80%. At present, the market supply is still sufficient. Most of the offers of downstream polyester plants are hard demand, and the overall trading atmosphere is light. The start-up of the downstream polyester industry in December remained around 80%, and the change was not too great. Due to the weak terminal demand, the polyester market mainly fell. With the boost of the cost side, there was a slight rebound at the end of the month, and the monthly decline of each product was around 2%. The poor downstream demand led to the decline of PX price.

From the perspective of PX products in 2021, the total national PX capacity is 28.815 million tons, and the domestic new capacity is 2.75 million tons. The statistics of domestic new capacity are as follows:

It is clear from the above table that domestic production capacity increases and domestic supply increases. The annual operating rate of PX is about 764%, and the annual output is expected to be about 22 million tons. The domestic spot supply of p-xylene is still insufficient, and the domestic p-xylene is still highly dependent on foreign countries, which makes the domestic p-xylene pricing greatly affected by foreign countries. In 2021, there is little new capacity to increase production, and the domestic p-xylene market price trend increases. However, PX products are in the era of negative profit in 2021. The profit trend of production process with naphtha as raw material is shown in the figure below:

There are two PX production processes, one is naphtha as the main raw material, and the other is MX as the main raw material. In 2020, there is no profit in producing PX with naphtha as raw material. In addition, the production of PX with MX as raw material has always been in negative profit, and the annual average profit is – 70 US dollars / ton. The negative profit has become the new normal in 2021.

Part of domestic PX is separated from mixed xylene. The price of crude oil and domestic mixed xylene are also factors affecting the price trend of domestic p-xylene market. The price trend of crude oil and mixed xylene rose sharply in 2021. International crude oil performance rose as a whole, supply tightened and demand recovered, and higher prices were the main theme. According to the trend chart of xylene, the market price of mixed xylene rose sharply in 2021, with an overall increase of 48.73%. In the first quarter, the price of mixed xylene plummeted, and the sharp contradiction between global PX supply and demand led to PX entering a negative profit era.

97% of PX in China is used to produce PTA. Comparing the price trend of px-pta in 2021, it is obvious from the above figure that the price trend of PX and PTA in the whole year is quite close. The market prices of PX and PTA in China have risen sharply, but the processing costs have been rising, and some PTA manufacturers have suffered serious losses.

It can be seen from the domestic PX price trend chart in recent five years that the PX price in 2021 is higher than the average price in 2020. Chen Ling, PX analyst of business society, believes that there is great pressure on the sharp rise of PX market prices in Asia in 2022. There is excess PX capacity in Asia, the weak trend of PX market prices in Asia is more clear, and the rising pressure is huge. With the release of new domestic production capacity, the supply continues to increase significantly. Although new units are still put into operation in domestic PTA enterprises next year and the demand is increased, the new PX production capacity is greater, including the 4 million T / a PX unit of Dongfang Shenghong and the 2 million T unit of phase II of CICC. The PX self supply rate is gradually increased, the domestic import volume will be greatly reduced and the domestic supply and demand will be improved, However, the overall supply of PX in Asia has been surplus, and there is great pressure on PX exporting countries such as Japan and South Korea. It is very likely to sell profits to China and compete with domestic enterprises. PX production losses will continue. Therefore, PX will still maintain a weak pattern in 2022, and PX negative profits have become a normal state. However, affected by the boost of international crude oil prices, PX market prices have been supported by certain costs, The average price in the domestic market is about 5200 yuan / ton. It is expected that the domestic high price will appear in the peak sales season of textile in spring, and the domestic market price of p-xylene is 7000 yuan / ton. However, with the continuous release of domestic new production capacity, the domestic low price is also expected to be about 4500 yuan / ton.