This week (3.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia market rebounded, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rebounded slightly, the market was weak and stable at the beginning of the week, and the market began to pick up gradually in the middle of the week. It is mainly driven by the downstream urea market. Enterprises turn to urea more, resulting in lower ammonia volume and tight supply, which improves the market. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 3.02%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4300-4500 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, this week, the overall ammonia release in many places in China decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the supply of manufacturers decreased slightly. With the rise of urea market and the continuous expansion of profits from liquid ammonia and urea, enterprises have switched to urea. Many large factories in Shandong, Shanxi and other places have switched to urea, and the supporting facilities in the lower reaches of Western Shandong have been restored. Some enterprises in Hubei have stopped for maintenance, such as Xiangyun, Yihua and sanning. Narrow supply is the fundamental reason to support the rise of liquid ammonia price.

On the cost side, the upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price fluctuates lower. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. However, the price of natural gas is still high, which has a great driving effect on gas head enterprises.

On the demand side, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2732.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2902.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.22%, up 38.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Agricultural demand has started and industrial demand has increased. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the supply of urea is sufficient, and the slight rise of urea in the future is the main.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, but the opening of the curve has expanded recently, and urea is obviously better than liquid ammonia. The strong profit of urea has led ammonia enterprises to switch to urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head rises. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the performance of liquid ammonia is also good, but the performance of downstream is weak except urea plate.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight, and the market is expected to continue to improve, but we still need to pay attention to the degree of demand recovery and the duration of downstream urea market. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia may still increase in the near future.