According to the data monitoring of the business agency, as of February 22, the average ex factory price of butanone in the domestic market was 13066 yuan / ton. Compared with the price at the beginning of the month (12500 yuan / ton on February 1), the price increased by 566 yuan / ton, an increase of 4.53%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that in February, the domestic butanone market was running warm as a whole. In the first ten days, after the Spring Festival holiday, the domestic butanone market ushered in a steady upward trend from the 8th. After the festival, the construction of butanone in the field was low, and the tight supply in the field supported the upward operation of butanone market. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 13000-13300 yuan / ton. Compared with that before the festival, the cumulative increase after the festival was 500-800 yuan / ton, an increase of 5.87% in early February.

In late February, the tight supply side continued to support the butanone market, but the downstream demand was general, the butanone market continued to rise weakly, and the overall high-level consolidation operation was dominated. Until the 21st and 22nd, the domestic butanone market was running down in a narrow range, and the downstream demand was always cold. The light transactions on the floor depressed the confidence of the operators, and the butanone market loosened and fell. Butanone factories in some regions reduced the ex factory price of butanone by around 100-300 yuan / ton. As of the 22nd, the ex factory price of domestic butanone was around 12800-13300 yuan / ton, with an average price of around 13066 yuan / ton, It fell by 1.26% in the latter half of the year and rose by 4.53% in February as a whole. At present, the butanone plant is weak as a whole, mainly finishing and operation.

Upstream, in mid February, the liquefied gas market fluctuated frequently, and the overall civil gas market in Shandong was still dominated by weakness, with limited positive market support. Affected by weak terminal demand at the beginning of the week, prices fell significantly. Subsequently, the increase of international crude oil significantly boosted the market, Shandong civil gas stopped falling, and some manufacturers increased, but the overall range was small. In the middle of the week, due to the poor market trading atmosphere, Shandong civil gas returned to weakness again. Until the weekend, downstream market entry increased, manufacturers’ shipments improved, and prices rebounded. On February 13, the average price of liquefied gas in Shandong civil market was 5768.00 yuan / ton, and on February 21, the average price was 5396.00 yuan / ton, with a decline of 6.45% within the week.

Future analysis of butanone

At present, there is a heavy wait-and-see mood in the downstream of butanone. The mentality of some butanone holders is frustrated, and the overall atmosphere in the venue is cold. The butanone data division of the business society believes that under the influence of demand containment and the atmosphere in the venue, the possibility that the butanone market will continue to decline in the short term cannot be ruled out, and the specific trend needs to pay more attention to the follow-up of the demand side.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 22, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong was 10066 yuan / ton. Compared with the price on February 1 (the reference average price of n-butanol was 9366 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 700 yuan / ton, or 7.47%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of the business agency that the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong showed a trend of first rising and then falling in February. During the Spring Festival, the domestic market was stable in early February. On the first day of return after the festival (the 7th), the market of n-butanol in Shandong ushered in a wide rise. The average price of n-butanol in Shandong broke close to 11500 yuan / ton, and the price rose by more than 2000 yuan / ton compared with that before the festival, with a single day increase of 24.20%. Subsequently, on August 8 and 9, the market of n-butanol in Shandong continued to move closer to the high end. On September 9, the average ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong rose to about 11933 yuan / ton, with an increase of 27.4% in the three days after the festival.

After the n-butanol market rose to a high level, the pace of downstream procurement slowed down, the resistance to high prices gradually rose in the downstream, and the demand support weakened. The n-butanol market in Shandong fell when it was at a high level. From the 10th, the n-butanol market gradually declined. As of the 15th, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to around 10500-10800 yuan / ton, with an average price of 10600 yuan / ton, The half month increase was 13.17%.

In late February, the decline of n-butanol market slowed down, and the overall situation was weak. Until the 21st and 22nd, affected by the insufficient procurement of downstream users of n-butanol, the cold transaction of new orders and the loose demand support, the n-butanol market in Shandong moved down again. On the 22nd, the ex factory price of n-butanol in Shandong fell to about 9900-10300 yuan / ton, and the average price fell to about 10066 yuan / ton, It fell by 5.05% in the second half of the year, and the overall increase in February exceeded 7%. At present, the domestic n-butanol market in Shandong is weak as a whole.

In terms of upstream propylene, in February, the domestic propylene market in Shandong rose first and then fell, showing an overall upward operation. According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of February 21, the reference price of propylene was 7887.33 yuan / ton, up 1.76% compared with February 1 (7750.80 yuan / ton).

Future analysis of n-butanol

At present, the downstream demand of n-butanol is still calm, the support on the demand side is limited, and the confidence of the industry is frustrated. The n-butanol datagrapher of business society believes that in the short term, the market situation of n-butanol in Shandong is mostly weak, mainly sorting and operation. More attention needs to be paid to the changes of supply and demand.

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of acetic acid in East China was 5070 yuan / ton on February 18. Compared with 5530 yuan / ton at the end of last week, it was reduced by 460 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.32%. As of February 18, the market price of acetic acid in various regions rose and fell as follows:

region February 12th February 18th Price rise and fall

South China 5450-5550 yuan / ton 4900-5000 yuan / ton – 550/-550

North China 5250-5500 yuan / ton 4600-4800 yuan / ton – 650/-700

Shandong region 5150-5250 yuan / ton 4700-4800 yuan / ton – 450/-450

Jiangsu region 5200-5300 yuan / ton 4600-4700 yuan / ton – 600/-600

Zhejiang region 5300-5400 yuan / ton 4700-4800 yuan / ton – 600/-600

During the week, the acetic acid market was weak and downward, the start-up of acetic acid enterprises was high, the inventory after the festival continued to accumulate, the market supply was sufficient, the downstream demand was rational, the digestion of early orders was mainly, the market entry enthusiasm was not high, the market transaction atmosphere was light, acetic acid enterprises competed passively for shipment, and the quotation continued to be adjusted downward.

Downstream, the market of ethyl acetate decreased significantly. On February 18, the price of ethyl acetate in East China was about 8260 yuan / ton, a decrease of 8.81% during the week. After the festival, the operating rate of ethyl acetate was stable, the downstream demand started slowly, the main factories stopped bidding and changed to retail, and the market response was still weak, mainly due to the incomplete recovery of the operation of downstream factories, weak demand and the decline of ethyl acetate price.

The acetic acid analyst of business society believes that at present, the supply of acetic acid market is sufficient, the downstream demand is light, the enterprise inventory is accumulated, the competitive shipment, the price is reduced, and the situation of short-term oversupply is difficult to improve. It is expected that the future acetic acid market will continue to operate weakly, and pay specific attention to the downstream transaction.

1、 Price trend

According to the data monitoring of the bulk list of business society, the bromine price is weak this week. At the beginning of the week, the average market price was 59600 yuan / ton, and at the end of the week, the average market price was 59000 yuan / ton. The price decreased by 1.01% and increased by 72.68% year-on-year. On February 18, the bromine commodity index was 207.02, unchanged from yesterday, down 15.56% from the highest point 245.18 in the cycle (2021-10-27), and up 251.36% from the lowest point 58.92 on October 29, 2014. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Market analysis

At present, the domestic bromine price is weak. At present, the mainstream price of Shandong enterprises is about 55000-59000 yuan / ton. The bromine price is stable and small, the operation of bromine enterprises is low, and the inventory is small. The downstream flame retardants and pharmaceutical intermediates industry started slowly after the Spring Festival, mostly purchased on demand, and the shipment of enterprises is general. In fact, supply and demand are weak and the market is deadlocked.

In terms of raw materials: the price of sulfur this week is stable and small. The average market price at the beginning of the week is about 2170 yuan / ton, and the average market price at the weekend is 2203.33 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 1.54%, up 85.15% from the same period last year. The domestic sulfur market is temporarily stable, and the price of solid and liquid sulfur in refineries in various regions is stable. The downstream sulfuric acid market is improving, the port liquid sulfur operates smoothly, and the cargo holders have strong intention to support the high price of liquid sulfur in regional refineries; The demand for phosphate fertilizer is acceptable, there is no pressure on the inventory of domestic sulfur refineries, the shipment of enterprises is smooth, and the sulfur market is relatively strong.

Business analysts believe that the bromine price consolidation operation, bromine downstream flame retardants and intermediates industry mostly purchase on demand, but the actual transaction is general. It is comprehensively estimated that the short-term bromine price consolidation operation is mainly based on the downstream market demand.

Market price of main domestic hydrogenated benzene Market on February 17 (unit: yuan / ton)

Market, Price on February 10, Price on February 17, Rise and fall

East China, 8025.,7850.,- one hundred and seventy-five

Shandong Province, 8025.,7750.,- two hundred and seventy-five

Summary of price adjustment of Sinopec pure benzene (unit: yuan / ton)

Date, Adjusted price, Adjustment amount

January 11, 7400.,+100

January 14, 7550.,+150

January 19, 7700.,+150

February 7, 8100.,+400

February 11, 7950.,-150

On February 11, 2021, the listing price of pure benzene of Sinopec was reduced by 150 yuan / ton to 7950 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical was 7900 yuan / ton.

Crude oil: on February 16, the price of international crude oil futures rose. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $93.66/barrel, up US $1.59 or 1.7%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $94.81/barrel, up US $1.53 or 1.6%. US Energy Information Administration (EIA) data showed that US fuel demand hit a record high, and oil prices were boosted upward.

In the first week after the festival, with the joint support of crude oil and pure benzene, the bidding price of crude benzene increased significantly by 370 yuan / ton. Crude oil prices fluctuated significantly this week, especially on Tuesday, February 15, when international crude oil futures prices fell sharply. WTI settled at US $92.07/barrel, down US $3.39 or 3.6%. The sharp decline of crude oil affected the market mentality, while the affected price of pure benzene fell again. The market actively digested the inventory, and the price of hydrogenated benzene mainly fell this week following the trend of pure benzene.

In terms of the future market fundamentals, the downstream demand still exists, and the high crude oil price still supports the market. However, the recent price fluctuations are frequent, and the future market guidance is limited. It is expected that the support of the industrial chain in the short term will be acceptable, and the price of pure benzene will continue to fluctuate.

The market price of domestic aggregated MDI fluctuated in a narrow range. In the first week after the festival, traders entering the market made sporadic quotations. There are obvious regional differences. There is a strong shouting atmosphere in northern regions such as Shandong, and the market recovery in East and South China is slow.

According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, on February 7 and 11, the market price of domestic aggregated MDI increased from 21180 yuan / ton to 21340 yuan / ton, with a price increase of 0.76% during the week, a price increase of 0.76% month on month and a year-on-year increase of 10.57%.

Summary of domestic aggregate MDI market as of February 11:

Region, Wanhua goods, Shanghai goods

East China 21800 yuan / ton 21500 yuan / ton

South China 21800 yuan / ton 21500 yuan / ton

North China and Shandong 21800-22000 yuan / ton 21500 yuan / ton

Summary of domestic aggregated MDI traders as of February 11:

Raw material pure benzene: during the Spring Festival holiday, crude oil soared, and Shandong manufacturers delivered good goods without pressure on inventory. The high-end of local pure benzene rose to 8300 yuan / ton. After the festival, encouraged by the high price in Shandong, the price in East China opened strongly, with the superposition of bulk and styrene disk rising sharply. The transaction of pure benzene rose to 8130 yuan / ton in recent months, and Sinopec’s listing also actively increased to 8100 yuan / ton. Crude oil weakened, styrene disk fell, pure benzene buying quickly weakened, and the mainstream negotiation in East China fell to 7800-7900 yuan / ton.

Comparison chart of pure benzene (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

Aniline: raw material pure benzene rose strongly after the Spring Festival and then fell back, but it is still at a high level and the cost is strong. On the demand side, some downstream are still in holidays, with reduced demand for raw materials and low intention to prepare goods. The mood of some downstream goods preparation is positive, and the peak season of the industry is coming in March. The delivery of aniline is better, and the factory inventory remains at the general level.

Comparison chart of aniline (upstream raw material) – polymerized MDI price trend of business society:

In terms of enterprises, Yantai Wanhua 1.1 million T / a plant operates normally; Ningbo Wanhua 1.2 million T / a unit operates normally; The 600000 T / a unit of Shanghai keschuang operates normally; The 380000 T / a unit of Shanghai Huntsman operates normally; Shanghai BASF 220000 T / a unit operates normally; Chongqing BASF 400000 T / a unit operates normally; The 80000 T / a unit of Dongcao Ruian operates normally.

In the future, business community aggregation MDI analysts expect that the domestic aggregation MDI market may enter the consolidation stage.

According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic PTA market fell slightly on February 15. The average market price in East China was 5685 yuan / ton, down 0.12% from the previous trading day and up 40.98% year-on-year. PTA futures 2205 closed at 5696, down 24, or 0.42%.

Statistics of recent changes in domestic PTA units

manufacturing enterprise Unit capacity (10000 tons / year) Device change

Yisheng Ningbo two hundred Maintenance for 2 weeks on February 10.

Yisheng new materials three hundred and thirty From February 9 to the end of February, the load was reduced to 50%.

three hundred and thirty The test run was started on January 28, and 50% was started in early February.

Zhongtai petrochemical one hundred and twenty About 80% of the construction started in early February.

Yisheng Dalian two hundred and twenty-five The overhaul is planned in early March, and the specific situation is to be determined.

In terms of supply, two sets of 6.6 million ton units of Yisheng new materials were put into operation, the 2 million ton / year PTA unit of Yisheng Ningbo was shut down for maintenance on February 10, and the 1.2 million ton PTA unit of Zhongtai Petrochemical started about 80% in early February. The 2.25 million ton PTA plant in Yisheng Dalian is planned to be overhauled in early March. The specific situation is to be determined. At present, the operating rate of PTA industry has dropped to about 80%.

Oil prices rose sharply for two consecutive trading days, hitting a new high for more than seven years, mainly due to the escalation of tensions between Russia and Ukraine; In addition, the actual output increase of OPEC + does not meet the target, which aggravates the concern of global energy supply shortage. On February 14, the price of international crude oil futures rose sharply. The settlement price of the main contract of WTI crude oil futures in the United States was US $95.46/barrel, up US $2.36 or 2.5%, and the settlement price of the main contract of Brent crude oil futures was US $96.48/barrel, up US $2.04 or 2.2%.

Since the seventh day of the first month, the mainstream weaving factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang have resumed work one after another, and the loom operating rate has risen to more than 35.35%. However, the terminal manufacturers have a strong wait-and-see mood, lack of enthusiasm for raw material procurement, use more inventory, mainly inquiry, and the market is still in a recovery period. In addition, the epidemic situation in many places is severe, especially in Suzhou and surrounding areas. As an important textile place, logistics will also be affected.

Business analysts believe that the slow resumption of terminal weaving and the pressure on the demand side of PTA lead to insufficient action on price. Although the light textile cities and textile cities across the country have opened one after another, the logistics has not been fully restored, and the trading volume is relatively small. It is expected that it will be gradually clear after the Lantern Festival. The positive support on the cost side remains, restraining the decline of PTA. It is expected that the short-term PTA price will still fluctuate and warm.

1、 Price trend

According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average ex factory price of domestic ammonium sulfate was 1490 yuan / ton on February 7, and 1380 yuan / ton on February 14. The price of ammonium sulfate fell by 7.38% this week.

2、 Market analysis

The operating rate of ammonium sulfate decreased this week, and the market atmosphere was light. The price of coking grade ammonium sulfate is weak, mainly on the sidelines, and the transaction is general. The trend of domestic ammonium sulfate has declined, and some enterprises have reduced their prices, which fell by 50-180 yuan / ton this week. As of February 14, the mainstream factory quotation of coking ammonium sulfate in Shandong is 1300-1380 yuan / ton, that in Hebei is 1280-1380 yuan / ton, and that in Heilongjiang is about 1400 yuan / ton. Hexene grade ammonium sulfate, the factory quotation in Shandong is 1300-1400 yuan / ton.

The downstream compound fertilizer was slightly adjusted this week, there was no great fluctuation, and the market trading volume was general. The price of compound fertilizer raw materials rose this week, and the cost support was good. The industry is optimistic about the situation of compound fertilizer and is expected to have an upward trend in the short term.

3、 Future forecast

The ammonium sulfate analyst of business society believes that in order to reduce inventory, the trend of ammonium sulfate is weak after the festival. At present, the field is mainly wait-and-see, and the topdressing market is about to open in spring. We look forward to the follow-up demand in the later stage. It is expected that the weak finishing operation of ammonium sulfate in the short term will be dominated.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market generally rose in early February, and the spot prices of various brands increased. As of February 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 15000 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of + 2.74% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, Shandong styrene market fell after rising this week. The raw material pure benzene continued to rise and spit back, and the cost support was weakened, but it was still maintained. The styrene market took profits at high prices, superimposed the short-term supply increment after the festival, and the downstream is still in the stage of returning to work one after another, with insufficient spot transactions. In addition, some new styrene units have output, which is bad for the market.

The price of acrylonitrile was weak this week. The shipment of new equipment put into operation before the festival and the current operating rate of the industry was about 90%, which increased the supply and was bad for the spot market. The inventory of enterprises and society is high, the follow-up of downstream textile enterprises is not as expected, the business confidence is not strong, and the price is reduced.

The domestic butadiene market rose again this week. Boosted by the high prices of external market and some domestic suppliers, the mentality of merchants after the festival is relatively strong, but some downstream industries are affected by policies and have poor start-up, the demand recovery is less than expected, dragging the market transaction is not smooth, and the market focus is slightly weakened.

The overall upstream market of ABS rose and fell this week, with general cost support. In terms of industry load, after the festival, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises was high, the overall supply was high and the prognosis was abundant. The implementation of destocking in the industry before the festival was good, and the ex factory price of enterprises increased after the festival, but the buyers did not follow up after the rise. In terms of downstream demand, the current terminal enterprises are in the resumption stage, and the demand has not been fully launched. After the merchant’s offer rose, the shipping resistance increased, and the rise of ABS spot was blocked.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the ABS spot market generally rose in early February, and the upstream three material trends rose and fell respectively, which generally supports the cost side of ABS. Domestic spot prices are mainly affected by the high load and abundant supply of the industry. After the festival, the demand follow-up of terminal enterprises is not complete, the circulation of high price goods in the market is blocked, and the on-site trading is insufficient. It is expected that the ABS spot market may rise and callback in the short term.

Price trend

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic PA66 market continued to operate weakly in early February, and the spot prices of various brands fell. As of February 10, the average ex factory price of PA66 adhesive injection molding sample enterprises of business society was about 35750 yuan / ton, with an increase or decrease of – 0.69% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

Cause analysis

Industrial chain: upstream, the domestic adipic acid market continues to be favorable from the cost side, and the market trend increases greatly. The improvement of adiponitrile is limited. The loss of production capacity of large international factories and the shortage of overseas transportation capacity are still affecting the market. The overall supply is still tight, and the domestic production cost of PA66 is cited.

The upstream raw material adipic acid has increased, the supply of adiponitrile has limited changes, and the cost side support of PA66 is acceptable. In the recent period, the operating rate of the industry has increased compared with that before the festival, and the operating level of domestic PA66 industry has basically returned to normal. The inventory position in Hong Kong is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is limited. In terms of demand, buyers’ follow-up after the festival is biased towards the just need to maintain production, and there is great resistance to the transaction of high price goods. The smoothness of goods flow in the yard is poor, the seller’s mentality is affected, and the offer makes profit.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA66 fell in early February. The shortage pattern of adiponitrile at the raw material end is still, and the adipic acid market continues to be strong. The load of PA66 enterprises is improved, and the support of the supply side to the spot is weakened. Downstream users have a deep resistance to the supply of high price goods. In addition, the demand after the festival has not been fully launched, and the trading atmosphere on the floor is poor. It is expected that PA66 may maintain a stable and weak market in the near future.