441# silicon price trend

The quotation of metal silicon increased significantly in the first ten days of March. The quotation of silicon factory was strong mainly due to the small order inventory in the early delivery stage and the rise of raw material prices. However, after the sharp price adjustment of metal silicon, the downstream procurement was weak, mainly waiting to digest the inventory, and the inquiry in silicon city was light, and the turnover was significantly reduced. Traders are more worried about the future. Although the prices of raw materials such as petroleum coke, silica and coal are high, it is difficult to alleviate the recurrence of the epidemic in many places in China, the production and transportation are blocked, and the market continues to flow out of low-cost resources, so traders have no choice but to reduce their quotations. As of the 25th, the national metal silicon quotation was 21910 yuan / ton, down 3.25% from the beginning of the month.

Market analysis

Supply side

As of March 25, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 86000 tons. Due to the transportation of the epidemic, there was a cumulative reservoir situation in Kunming at the end of the month, which showed the characteristics of going to the reservoir in the dry season in the south in the middle of the month; Tianjin Port has a small increase in inventory at the end of the month due to more arrival resources; The total inventory of Huangpu port was relatively stable in March.

Demand side

The demand orders for domestic and foreign trade of metal silicon this month were generally performed. Due to the delay of bidding, some large foreign factories reduced their procurement and supplemented the warehouse as needed. On the domestic demand side, the price of organosilicon DMC was adjusted back. Compared with March 1, the average price was reduced by 11500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 34.50%, resulting in a decline in the production enthusiasm of organosilicon plants; The overall price of aluminum alloy decreased. On the 30th, the market of aluminum alloy ingots in Wuxi was 21800, and the actual transaction was still poor. The sentiment in the downstream market was negative and the willingness to purchase metal silicon was weak.

Future forecast

According to the current trend, the epidemic broke out in scattered spots, the traffic was blocked, the decline of metal silicon was intensified, the future market was not optimistic, the accumulation of reserves in ports and main production areas was obvious, and the flow of market resources was difficult. Assuming that the epidemic situation is basically controlled in mid April, the demand for downstream aluminum alloy and silicone will increase a little. In addition, the current silicone market has fallen to a phased low. It is not ruled out that the market may rebound in the peak season in April, which will be transmitted to metal silicon. Business analysts believe that the short-term metal silicon price will be weak, but it is expected to fluctuate around 20000 yuan / ton under the support of cost.