1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price fluctuated sharply in March. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 179916.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 221933.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 23.35% and a year-on-year increase of 22.13%. On March 9, the spot price of nickel once reached a historical high of 310116.66 yuan / ton, and fell back to 240000 yuan the next day.

The abnormal fluctuation of nickel price this month is mainly due to the concern of Russian nickel supply and low global inventory, which are the core drivers of the rise of nickel price: due to the repeated situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of reducing the output of overseas nickel refineries has increased, and the possibility of logistics shutdown also continues to push up the nickel price; In addition, the global refined nickel inventory continued to decline, at an all-time low, which further exacerbated nickel supply concerns and led to a crowded rise. In addition, the sharp rise in energy prices supports the cost of metals. Therefore, under the joint boost of supply and demand, cost and other factors, the crazy influx of long funds and the hit of long stop loss were made, and the price rose strongly. In addition, Glencore forced the Castle Peak in Zhejiang, and the Russian Ukrainian war gave bulls an opportunity. Therefore, lunni staged an epic market. On March 7, lunni futures soared by more than 88% overnight, hitting a record high of US $55000 / ton. On March 8, LUNI nickel once broke the US $100000 / ton mark, with a daily increase of 110%.

LME suspended nickel trading on March 8 after nickel prices soared more than 50 per cent to more than $100000 per ton. The exchange resumed nickel trading on March 16, but nickel has triggered a limit every trading day since then. At about 18:00 on March 23 in Beijing, lunni hit the daily limit. After the resumption of trading, the nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange fell continuously, and hit the increase limit on the first trading day, and then fluctuated sharply. Domestic nickel prices also fluctuate with Lun nickel prices.

To sum up: this month’s Black Swan incident led to a disorderly earthquake in nickel price, which has deviated from the fundamentals. At present, the disorderly fluctuation of LME nickel price has also caused serious problems to the industrial chain, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is more serious. Although the stock of goods has increased with it, it is also faced with the risk that it cannot be realized, which also shows that the current nickel price is difficult to be recognized by the industrial chain. The risk of overseas position squeeze remains unresolved, and the trend of nickel price is still uncertain. At present, the market risk has not been fully released. In April, nickel prices may return to normal.