Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2902.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2929.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.93%, up 38.60% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On March 17, the urea commodity index was 135.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.09% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 144.19% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is sufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2890 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2895 yuan / ton this weekend, up 15 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2880 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, and the quotation increased from 6896.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6932.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.52%, an increase of 92.91% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have risen slightly recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4553.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4836.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.22%, a year-on-year increase of 38.45% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, and the quotation was 12000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and enhanced industrial demand. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. The downstream melamine market price was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was weakened. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and more than 3 million tons of spring ploughing reserve fertilizer have been put on the market. The supply of urea is sufficient. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is sufficient. In the future, the urea rises slightly, mainly in consolidation.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In the middle and late March, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, dominated by high-level consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market rose slightly and the cost support increased. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the downstream demand increases. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is good, the urea supply is normal, and the future urea is mainly increased by a slight shock.