On the 7th, the domestic adipic acid market price stabilized, and the price after the festival changed little compared with that before the festival. The price of upstream pure benzene stabilized, which brought some support to adipic acid. Supply and demand remained basically balanced, and the operating rate remained above 70%, but the demand was relatively low.

The adipic acid Market in East China is weak and stable, the market supply pressure is gradually emerging, and manufacturers mainly reduce inventory. The dealer’s offer is mainly low, and the market transaction is in the doldrums. The price of pure benzene fell and its support for adipic acid weakened. The downstream procurement is rational, and the demand is not large for the time being. The mainstream prices in today’s market are: the acceptance price of Shandong source of goods is 12500-12700 yuan / ton, and the acceptance price of Jiangsu source of goods is 12700-12900 yuan / ton.

Adipic acid Market in South China remained stable. At present, the market demand maintains rigid demand, and the market transaction is sluggish. This week, the manufacturer’s listing is temporarily stable, and the downstream procurement is just needed. Today, the mainstream price in the market is: the acceptance price of Shandong source of goods is 12700-12800 yuan / ton, and the acceptance price of Jiangsu source of goods is 12800-13000 yuan / ton.

Future forecast: adipic acid market is expected to be dominated by narrow adjustment in the near future.

1、 Price summary on April 2:

The quotation of Shijiazhuang refining and chemical company is 7300 yuan / ton, and that of Qilu Petrochemical Company is 7300 yuan / ton,

Yangba offers 7550 yuan / ton,

Guangzhou Petrochemical quoted 7500 yuan / ton, Maoming Petrochemical quoted 7450 yuan / ton,

Changling refinery offers 7650 yuan / ton,

2、 Fluctuation trend:

3、 Analysis and comments:

In terms of crude oil, the EU announced that it would speed up the formulation of a new round of sanctions against Russia, but there was still no agreement among Member States. In addition, market participants are worried about the slowing demand of public health events, and oil prices are under pressure.

Today, Sinopec reduced the price of toluene in South China by 200 yuan / ton.

During the festival, crude oil rose as a whole, and the price of toluene in Asia rose. Domestic market trading remained light, public health incidents continued to affect logistics and transportation, gasoline and diesel prices weakened, and toluene market was under pressure.

In March, the domestic propane market fluctuated frequently, and the overall Shandong market showed a strong first and then weak trend. The decline in the month was greater than the increase, and the focus shifted downward. According to the data monitoring of business agency, the average price of propane in Shandong market was 6595.75 yuan / ton on March 1 and 6445.75 yuan / ton on March 30. The decline rate in the month was 2.27%, up 7.93% compared with the same period last year.

As of March 31, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, March 31st

East China, 6450-6600 yuan / ton

North China, 6350-6550 yuan / ton

Shandong Province, 6350-6850 yuan / ton

Northeast China, 6200-6500 yuan / ton

In March, the domestic propane Market as a whole showed a trend from strong to weak. The decline of Shandong propane market was greater than the increase, and most of the prices fell back to 6500 yuan / ton at the end of the month. At the beginning of the month, driven by the sharp rise of CP price and the rise of international crude oil, Shandong propane market continued to climb to the highest point of 7688.25 yuan / ton in the month. In the middle of the month, the international crude oil fell weakly, the cost support was limited, and the market demand was weak, so the price fell sharply. At the end of the month, with the rebound of international crude oil prices and favorable market mentality, the price of propane in Shandong continued to rise. However, affected by the epidemic in many parts of China, insufficient demand significantly restrained the rising market, and the weak market ended in March.

Saudi Aramco announced in April 2022 that both propylene and butane increased. Propane was 940 USD / T, up 45 USD / T from the previous month; Butane is 960 US dollars / ton, up 40 US dollars / ton compared with the previous month.

On the whole, the return of international crude oil to the rising trend is good for the market mentality. In addition, the introduction of CP price in April and the rise of propylene and butane have brought some support to the domestic market. Affected by the epidemic in some areas, the shipment situation is still affected to a certain extent. At present, the South and North markets of propane are dominated by weakness. It is expected that the propane market may rise in the short term, but it is still possible to weaken in the long term.

In March, the domestic corn ethanol market rose broadly, with different increases in various regions. According to the sample data monitored by the business agency, the price at the beginning of the month was 6937 yuan / ton and at the end of the month was 7300 yuan / ton, with an increase of 5.23% in the month and 1.57% year-on-year.

At the beginning of this month, insufficient demand is still the main factor restricting the ethanol market at this stage. The situation in each region is slightly different: the price of ethanol in Henan market has risen, the price of raw corn has risen to support the mentality, and the transaction has improved. The quotation of northeast Heilongjiang is high, the downstream just needs to purchase, and the enterprise reduces the quotation. The price trend of ethanol in Jilin is stable, the quotation of small factories rises, and the orders of large factories are limited.

In the middle of the month, the price of domestic ethanol rose rapidly, and the price of raw corn continued to rise. In addition, affected by the epidemic, some corn ethanol factories in Northeast China stopped, and the supply of corn ethanol decreased. The downstream production has a certain psychological conflict. The Baijiu factory takes into account the cost pressures and needs to purchase multidimensional and multi-dimensional. The high priced chemical industry is also followed up rigidly.

In late June, the price of domestic ethanol increased significantly, and the price of raw corn fluctuated at a high level. Recently, due to the insufficient supply of raw materials and transportation, the high level of ethanol is difficult to fall. With the continuous rise of ethanol prices, demand side will be accepted at high prices or gradually. Chemical industry needs to be purchased at the same time. At present, there are high prices heard of the deal. Baijiu factory takes into account the cost pressure and maintains just needed procurement.

At the end of the month, domestic ethanol prices rose and sorted out. The market mainly fluctuates in a narrow range, and the raw material corn market is still at a high level. Affected by various factors, the operating rate in the main production areas of Northeast China decreases, the short-term supply is tight, and the market price is still likely to rise. Other regions are mainly affected by transportation factors, the arrival time is prolonged, the downstream demand is low, and the market is mainly waiting and sorting.

Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of ethanol:

Weekly K column chart of ethanol domestic production price of business society:

According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in the list of bulk commodity prices in March 2022, there were 74 kinds of commodities rising month on month in the chemical sector, of which 37 kinds of commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 34.3% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top three commodities were ammonium sulfate (57.60%), formic acid (53.79%) and sulfuric acid (42.86%). A total of 32 commodities fell month on month, and 16 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 14.8% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were organosilicon DMC (- 24.23%), glycine (- 22.60%) and DMF (- 12.08%). The average rise and fall this month was 4.8%.

Comparison chart of corn (upstream raw material) and ethanol price trend of business society:

Comparison chart of price trend of ethanol and ethyl acetate (downstream products) in business society:

As of March 31, the latest price dynamics of ethanol market in various regions:

Region, Category, Price

Guangxi region Honey alcohol 7400-7700 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Corn / Cassava 95% alcohol 7400-7700 yuan / ton

Guangxi region Absolute ethanol 8250-8300 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong region Corn alcohol 7800 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong region Rice / Cassava general ethanol 7600-7650 yuan / ton self withdrawal

Guangdong region Anhydrous cassava ethanol 8250 yuan / ton, Dongguan self delivery

Sichuan region Corn alcohol 7600 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Yunnan region Molasses alcohol 7200-7250 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan region Superior 7250-7300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Henan region Absolute ethanol 8100-8150 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Hebei region General level 6750 yuan / ton

Hebei region anhydrous 7600 yuan / ton

Shandong region General level 7700-7900 yuan / ton

Shandong region Superior corn 7300 yuan / ton

Shandong region Corn anhydrous 8000 yuan / ton

Southern Jiangsu General level 7500-7600 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu General level 7200-7300 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu Superior 7400 yuan / ton

Northern Jiangsu anhydrous 8100-8200 yuan / ton

Anhui region General level 7400-7500 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Anhui region anhydrous 8200-8300 yuan / ton, ex factory tax included

Jinzhou area, Liaoning Corn alcohol general grade 7350 yuan / ton

Heilongjiang Region General level 6950-7050 yuan / ton, tax included

Heilongjiang Region Absolute ethanol 6850-7000 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Ordinary alcohol 7050-7100 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Premium alcohol 7000-7200 yuan / ton

Jilin Region Absolute ethanol 8000-8200 yuan / ton, tax included

The high price of corn is still the main factor affecting the ethanol market. At present, the units in some areas are affected and the operation is insufficient, and the transportation restrictions also promote the short-term supply shortage. The ethanol analyst of business society predicts that the domestic ethanol market will mainly be sorted out at a high level in the short term.

441# silicon price trend

The quotation of metal silicon increased significantly in the first ten days of March. The quotation of silicon factory was strong mainly due to the small order inventory in the early delivery stage and the rise of raw material prices. However, after the sharp price adjustment of metal silicon, the downstream procurement was weak, mainly waiting to digest the inventory, and the inquiry in silicon city was light, and the turnover was significantly reduced. Traders are more worried about the future. Although the prices of raw materials such as petroleum coke, silica and coal are high, it is difficult to alleviate the recurrence of the epidemic in many places in China, the production and transportation are blocked, and the market continues to flow out of low-cost resources, so traders have no choice but to reduce their quotations. As of the 25th, the national metal silicon quotation was 21910 yuan / ton, down 3.25% from the beginning of the month.

Market analysis

Supply side

As of March 25, the total inventory of metal silicon in the three places was 86000 tons. Due to the transportation of the epidemic, there was a cumulative reservoir situation in Kunming at the end of the month, which showed the characteristics of going to the reservoir in the dry season in the south in the middle of the month; Tianjin Port has a small increase in inventory at the end of the month due to more arrival resources; The total inventory of Huangpu port was relatively stable in March.

Demand side

The demand orders for domestic and foreign trade of metal silicon this month were generally performed. Due to the delay of bidding, some large foreign factories reduced their procurement and supplemented the warehouse as needed. On the domestic demand side, the price of organosilicon DMC was adjusted back. Compared with March 1, the average price was reduced by 11500 yuan / ton, a decrease of 34.50%, resulting in a decline in the production enthusiasm of organosilicon plants; The overall price of aluminum alloy decreased. On the 30th, the market of aluminum alloy ingots in Wuxi was 21800, and the actual transaction was still poor. The sentiment in the downstream market was negative and the willingness to purchase metal silicon was weak.

Future forecast

According to the current trend, the epidemic broke out in scattered spots, the traffic was blocked, the decline of metal silicon was intensified, the future market was not optimistic, the accumulation of reserves in ports and main production areas was obvious, and the flow of market resources was difficult. Assuming that the epidemic situation is basically controlled in mid April, the demand for downstream aluminum alloy and silicone will increase a little. In addition, the current silicone market has fallen to a phased low. It is not ruled out that the market may rebound in the peak season in April, which will be transmitted to metal silicon. Business analysts believe that the short-term metal silicon price will be weak, but it is expected to fluctuate around 20000 yuan / ton under the support of cost.

In March, the domestic MIBK market rose in a narrow range. By the end of the month, the market reference offer in East China was around 14200 yuan / ton. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the market mixed offer in East China was 13833 yuan / ton on March 1, and the market offer was 13966 yuan / ton on March 30, with an increase of 0.96% in the month. On March 10, affected by the cost side support, the market offer was pushed up to 14066 yuan / ton. On the whole, it rose first and then made a narrow correction within the month. On the whole, it rose slightly in March, and the overall high was maintained.

In March, the domestic acetone market rose first and then fell, with an overall rise of 3.28%. According to the monitoring data of business agency, the average offer of domestic acetone market was 5725 yuan / ton on March 1, 5912 yuan / ton on March 30, an increase of 3.28% in the month, and the offer of domestic phenol market was 6337 yuan / ton on March 10, with an amplitude of 10.7%. By the end of the month, the offer in East China market was about 5850 yuan / ton, that in South China was 6000 yuan / ton, and that in North China and surrounding areas of Shandong was 5850-5950 yuan / ton

Trend chart of average acetone price in East China market

During the month, the operating rate of the industry was 80%, and the overall inventory pressure of the enterprise was small, mainly focusing on the delivery of early orders. In the trade sector, the offer of the cargo holders remained stable at a high level, mainly according to the market. However, in March, due to the impact of domestic public events, the logistics and transportation were blocked, and the procurement enthusiasm of the downstream solvent and coating industry was not high, mainly small orders, the cargo holders had few sources of goods, the supply was pressureless, the operation enthusiasm of both sides was not high, and the market price changed little.

From the perspective of business society, the market is still in a narrow range of shock operation. At present, MIBK enterprises have low inventory, little supply pressure, little supply pressure of traders, strong terminal demand, and flat on-site negotiations. However, there is little short-term supply pressure. If the transaction price between the factory and antioxidant rises in the later stage, the market confidence will be supported. It is expected that the price will still be very high at the beginning of next month.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of business society, the nickel price fluctuated sharply in March. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 179916.67 yuan / ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price rose slightly to 221933.33 yuan / ton, with an overall increase of 23.35% and a year-on-year increase of 22.13%. On March 9, the spot price of nickel once reached a historical high of 310116.66 yuan / ton, and fell back to 240000 yuan the next day.

The abnormal fluctuation of nickel price this month is mainly due to the concern of Russian nickel supply and low global inventory, which are the core drivers of the rise of nickel price: due to the repeated situation in Russia and Ukraine, the risk of reducing the output of overseas nickel refineries has increased, and the possibility of logistics shutdown also continues to push up the nickel price; In addition, the global refined nickel inventory continued to decline, at an all-time low, which further exacerbated nickel supply concerns and led to a crowded rise. In addition, the sharp rise in energy prices supports the cost of metals. Therefore, under the joint boost of supply and demand, cost and other factors, the crazy influx of long funds and the hit of long stop loss were made, and the price rose strongly. In addition, Glencore forced the Castle Peak in Zhejiang, and the Russian Ukrainian war gave bulls an opportunity. Therefore, lunni staged an epic market. On March 7, lunni futures soared by more than 88% overnight, hitting a record high of US $55000 / ton. On March 8, LUNI nickel once broke the US $100000 / ton mark, with a daily increase of 110%.

LME suspended nickel trading on March 8 after nickel prices soared more than 50 per cent to more than $100000 per ton. The exchange resumed nickel trading on March 16, but nickel has triggered a limit every trading day since then. At about 18:00 on March 23 in Beijing, lunni hit the daily limit. After the resumption of trading, the nickel futures on the London Metal Exchange fell continuously, and hit the increase limit on the first trading day, and then fluctuated sharply. Domestic nickel prices also fluctuate with Lun nickel prices.

To sum up: this month’s Black Swan incident led to a disorderly earthquake in nickel price, which has deviated from the fundamentals. At present, the disorderly fluctuation of LME nickel price has also caused serious problems to the industrial chain, and the wait-and-see mood in the downstream is more serious. Although the stock of goods has increased with it, it is also faced with the risk that it cannot be realized, which also shows that the current nickel price is difficult to be recognized by the industrial chain. The risk of overseas position squeeze remains unresolved, and the trend of nickel price is still uncertain. At present, the market risk has not been fully released. In April, nickel prices may return to normal.

According to the monitoring data of business agency, as of March 28, the average price of propylene oxide enterprises was 12233.33 yuan / ton, up 1.66% from last Monday (March 21), 5.46% from February 28, and 7.00% year-on-year in a three-month cycle.

Propylene oxide (propylene oxide) market rose steadily. Last week, the price of raw propylene stopped falling and rose, the cost support was gradually strengthened, the negative state of many devices was reduced, the inventory of manufacturers was controllable, the enthusiasm of downstream procurement was not high, the price rose, the demand side was cold, the increase was restrained, and the price operated smoothly. On the 28th, the mainstream quotation of propylene oxide Market in Shandong was around 11800-12000 yuan / ton, and the market trading atmosphere was general.

Upstream propylene, according to the data monitoring of business agency, the market price of domestic propylene (Shandong) stopped falling and rising this week (3.21-3.25). At the beginning of the week, the market price was 8259 yuan / ton, and the average price at the weekend was 8408 yuan / ton, an increase of 1.81%.

For downstream propylene glycol, on March 25, the reference price of propylene glycol was 14500.00, a decrease of 9.56% compared with March 1 (16033.33).

The propylene oxide analyst of business society believes that at present, the raw material propylene market is weak, the cost side drags down the market mentality, and the supply side is still supported, but the demand side is weak, coupled with a certain impact on logistics, it is expected that the propylene oxide market may be weak and wait-and-see in the short term.

Zinc prices rose in shock this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the zinc market picked up this week, and the zinc price fluctuated and rose. As of March 25, the price of zinc was 26276 yuan / ton, up 3.51% from 25386 yuan / ton on March 18 last weekend. Zinc ingot inventory in zinc city decreased this week, and the driving force of zinc price rise increased.

Zinc ingot inventory in Shanghai futures market decreased

Time, Futures inventory Increase or decrease

March 1st ., one hundred and six thousand three hundred and twenty .,- six hundred and twenty-six

March 2nd ., 106320., 0

March 3rd ., 109258., two thousand nine hundred and thirty-eight

March 4, one hundred and ten thousand nine hundred and forty-eight ., one thousand six hundred and ninety

March 7, one hundred and fourteen thousand six hundred and fifty-one ., three thousand seven hundred and three

March 8th ., one hundred and seventeen thousand six hundred and sixty-six ., three thousand and fifteen

March 9th ., one hundred and seventeen thousand nine hundred and forty-two ., two hundred and seventy-six

March 10, one hundred and eighteen thousand nine hundred and thirty-five ., nine hundred and ninety-three

March 11, one hundred and twenty-one thousand eight hundred and ninety-five ., two thousand nine hundred and sixty

March 14, 125506., three thousand six hundred and eleven

March 15, 130267., four thousand seven hundred and sixty-one

March 16, 131221., nine hundred and fifty-four

March 17th ., one hundred and thirty thousand three hundred and ninety-three .,- eight hundred and twenty-eight

March 18, one hundred and thirty thousand two hundred and forty-four .,- one hundred and forty-nine

March 21, 129342., – nine hundred and two

March 22nd ., 128012., – one thousand three hundred and thirty

March 23rd ., 126728., – one thousand two hundred and eighty-four

March 24th ., one hundred and twenty-five thousand nine hundred and fifty-two .,- seven hundred and seventy-six

March 25th ., 125723., – two hundred and twenty-nine

According to the zinc ingot inventory data sheet of Shanghai futures market, since March 17, the zinc ingot futures inventory of Shanghai futures market has continued to decline. As of March 25, the zinc ingot inventory was 125723 tons, the inventory decreased by 5498 tons, the inventory of Shanghai futures market decreased, the supply of zinc Market was sufficient, the downward pressure of zinc price decreased, and the upward momentum increased.

Domestic epidemic hit zinc City

With the spread of the epidemic in Henan, the overall demand of vulnerable enterprises has been seriously affected again.

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues to affect the supply of zinc in the city

The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the price of natural gas in Europe soars, and the cost of zinc smelting rises, which affects the supply of zinc market. The future supply of zinc market is expected to decrease, and the rising power of zinc market is increased.

Future forecast

Business analysts believe that this week, the inventory of zinc ingots in Shanghai futures market decreased, the supply of zinc market was sufficient, the driving force of zinc price rise increased, the impact of the epidemic, and the demand of zinc market was weak. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine continues, the price of natural gas in Europe soars, the cost of zinc smelting in Europe rises, and the output of zinc market in Europe is expected to decrease. Generally speaking, the supply of global zinc market decreased in the future, the demand of zinc market was lower than expected, the overall bad situation of zinc market increased, the good still existed, and the zinc price rose slightly in the future.

According to the monitoring of business agency, the price of adipic acid in China fell this week, and adipic acid in East China fell by 2.68% this week. The market price range of adipic acid at the weekend is 13700-14000 yuan / ton. On the one hand, the prices of upstream crude oil, pure benzene and cyclohexanone fell. In addition, the terminal demand is still cautious, the transaction is not ideal, and it is difficult to support the rising price of adipic acid.

In terms of market supply, this week, the operating rate of adipic acid was slightly higher than that of the previous week, and is currently maintained at about 70%. Most manufacturers mainly support the price, and the listing price of some large manufacturers is reduced by 500 yuan / ton. The start-up of the manufacturer is basically stable. In terms of commencement, about 80% of Shandong Haili and Zhonghao units were started; Restart of Liaohua old line; Huafeng phase V is still raising the burden; The supply of this week is slightly higher than that of this week.

Adipic acid industry chain trend

The above figure shows that the adipic acid industry chain has declined as a whole this week, and the upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene have declined, especially pure benzene, with a large decline, while adipic acid and downstream PA66 have a small decline, indicating that the profit level of adipic acid manufacturers is acceptable.

Market trend of pure benzene in the upstream of adipic acid

The price of pure benzene fell mainly this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the price of pure benzene fell as much as 7.92% this week. The sharp decline of crude oil price affected market confidence. The downstream chemical raw materials had a downward trend. The spot price of raw material pure benzene fell sharply. The guiding price of main refineries decreased successively on March 14 and 16, accumulating 700 yuan / ton. Raw material prices fell, cost support weakened, and market participants were generally bearish about the future market.

Market trend of cyclohexanone in the upstream of adipic acid

Cyclohexanone also fell with crude oil this week. According to the monitoring of business society, cyclohexanone fell by 3.71% this week. The weak supply and demand brought down the high level of cyclohexanone market.

The prices of upstream products cyclohexanone and pure benzene generally fall, and adipic acid will further fall under the pressure of cost. It is expected that the price of adipic acid will still have downward space with the gradual transmission of cost in the later stage.

Market trend of adipic acid downstream PA66

Terminal demand: PA66 in the downstream of adipic acid remained weak after the festival. According to the data of business society, the market of PA66 fell this week, and the price fell by 2.31% this week. The load level of domestic PA66 industry is at a high level. The inventory position of the port is not high, and the arrival volume of overseas goods is general. In terms of demand, at present, terminal enterprises take goods to follow up, prefer to just need to maintain production, and their resistance to high price sources increases instead of decreasing. In addition, the health incident affected domestic logistics and the production of individual downstream factories, the shipment fluency of merchants was poor, the transaction resistance in the venue increased, and the mentality of sellers was affected. The range of offer negotiation this week is still large.

In the later stage, the business society believes that although the prices of crude oil and pure benzene have declined, the price of adipic acid is still relatively high, which does not rule out the continued decline due to cost conduction in the later stage. Superimposed on the weak follow-up of downstream demand, due to the impact of the epidemic, poor transportation and goods will also affect some demand, and adipic acid is expected to remain weak next week.