1、 Price data

According to the data of business news agency, as of May 31, the average price of 180CST of domestic fuel oil was 6446.00 yuan / ton, up 2.16% from 6310.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the month.

On May 31, the fuel oil commodity index was 130.55, up 0.2 points from yesterday, down 0.37% from the highest point 131.04 in the cycle (2022-03-24), and up 183.31% from the lowest point 46.08 on August 15, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of domestic fuel oil 180CST rose this month, and the high price of domestic marine oil raw materials supported the cost of fuel oil 180CST. According to the business news agency, as of May 31, the price of 180CST self raised low sulfur fuel oil and 120cst self raised low sulfur fuel oil in Zhoushan area of China National combustion Corporation were 6450 yuan / ton and 6500 yuan / ton respectively; The quotation for 180CST self extracting low sulfur fuel oil in Shanghai is 6350 yuan / ton, and the quotation for 120cst self extracting low sulfur fuel oil is 6450 yuan / ton.

In May, the international crude oil rose violently, the EU oil ban on sanctions against Russia was delayed, and the expectation of tight supply remained unchanged. With the arrival of summer driving season in the United States, demand is expected to improve, and supply and demand fundamentals are still good for oil prices. OPEC will adhere to the oil production agreement reached last year at the meeting on June 2, increasing the daily output by 432000 barrels in July, rejecting the Western call for faster production increase to reduce soaring oil prices. As the epidemic situation in Asia gradually eases, demand expectations tend to improve. However, the economic recession, the tightening of monetary policy and the spread of monkeypox virus have increased the uncertainty of oil demand prospects, which has led to pressure on oil prices to a certain extent.

The increase in fuel oil inventories in Singapore has limited support for fuel oil prices. It is understood that Singapore enterprise development authority (ESG): as of the week of May 25, Singapore’s inventory of residual fuel oil, including fuel oil and low sulfur wax containing residual oil, increased by 2339000 barrels to 21.106 million barrels; Inventories of light distillates including naphtha, gasoline and reformate increased by 1717000 barrels to 15461000 barrels; The inventory of medium distillate oil decreased by 84000 barrels to 7.285 million barrels.

3、 Aftermarket forecast

The rise of international crude oil has boosted the domestic fuel market. The price of raw materials in the domestic ship fuel market is strong, the cost of the ship fuel market is high, the market terminal demand is weak, the downstream purchasing sentiment is cautious, the wait-and-see sentiment is strong, and the overall transaction in the market is light. At present, the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 180CST is about 6400-6500 yuan / ton, and the low sulfur market price of fuel oil 120cst is about 6500-6600 yuan / ton. It is a single discussion. It is expected that the 180CST market of fuel oil will be mainly consolidated in the near future.