Recent urea price trend

As can be seen from the above figure, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2902.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2929.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 0.93%, up 38.60% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. On March 17, the urea commodity index was 135.77, unchanged from yesterday, down 6.09% from the highest point of 144.57 in the cycle (2021-10-26), and up 144.19% from the lowest point of 55.60 on August 17, 2016. (Note: the period refers to the period from September 1, 2011 to now)

The cost support is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is sufficient

From the manufacturer’s quotation, the mainstream ex factory price of domestic urea increased slightly this week. Zhangzhou San’an urea quoted 3100 yuan / ton this weekend, up 150 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Shandong Ruixing urea quoted 2890 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Hualu Hengsheng urea quoted 2895 yuan / ton this weekend, up 15 yuan / ton compared with last weekend; Yangmei plain urea is quoted at 2880 yuan / ton this weekend, down 10 yuan / ton compared with last weekend.

From the upstream and downstream industrial chain data, the upstream products of urea rose slightly this week as a whole: the price of liquefied natural gas rose slightly, and the quotation increased from 6896.00 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week to 6932.00 yuan / ton at the end of the week, an increase of 0.52%, an increase of 92.91% year-on-year compared with the same period last year; Coal prices have risen slightly recently. The price of liquid ammonia rose slightly. The quotation increased from 4553.33 yuan / ton last weekend to 4836.67 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.22%, a year-on-year increase of 38.45% compared with the same period last year. This week, the price of melamine in the downstream of urea was temporarily stable, and the quotation was 12000 yuan / ton.

From the perspective of demand: strong agricultural demand and enhanced industrial demand. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the bargain hunting is followed up appropriately. The downstream melamine market price was adjusted at a low level, and the enthusiasm for urea procurement was weakened. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and more than 3 million tons of spring ploughing reserve fertilizer have been put on the market. The supply of urea is sufficient. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, and the urea supply is sufficient. In the future, the urea rises slightly, mainly in consolidation.

Urea prices are bullish in the future

In the middle and late March, the domestic urea market may rise slightly, dominated by high-level consolidation. Urea analysts of business society believe that the upstream market rose slightly and the cost support increased. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season. The operating load of compound fertilizer plant and plate plant is high, and the downstream demand increases. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is good, the urea supply is normal, and the future urea is mainly increased by a slight shock.

According to the data monitored by the business agency, as of March 21, the average price of domestic rubber grade excellent white carbon black was 6325.00 yuan / ton, up 0.4% compared with the same period last week. The overall market is stable, medium and strong. At present, the market supply is normal and the focus of negotiation is stable.

This week (March 14-march 20), the market price of white carbon black tends to be strong. Compared with the same period last week, the price increases by 0.4%. The overall market supply and demand is balanced. The downstream just needs to purchase, mainly for contract customers. The logistics is smooth, and the market negotiation atmosphere is flat. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Jinan jinrihe Chemical Co., Ltd. is 6000 yuan / ton, Jinan Century Lianxing economic and Trade Co., Ltd. is 6000 yuan / ton, and Foshan Shunde jinpure silicon material Co., Ltd. is 9100 yuan / ton, Shandong Jiquan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (gas phase method) is 38000 yuan / ton, Shandong Jiquan Biotechnology Co., Ltd. (precipitation method) is 8200 yuan / ton, and Shandong Shouguang Changtai Weina chemical plant is 7700 yuan / ton. The manufacturer ships actively and gives up the order.

The upward trend of upstream hydrochloric acid. As of March 18, the domestic hydrochloric acid market price rose slightly. Dezhou Shihua hydrochloric acid is quoted at 500 yuan / ton this weekend, Wenshui synthetic hydrochloric acid is quoted at 230 yuan / ton this weekend, Liaocheng Huatong hydrochloric acid is quoted at 135 yuan / ton this weekend, and Xiangcheng San’an hydrochloric acid is quoted at 600 yuan / ton this weekend. The recent market of upstream liquid chlorine has increased slightly, and the cost side has certain support. Hydrochloric acid analysts of business society believe that hydrochloric acid has mainly increased slightly in the near future.

Ranking of chemical index: on March 20, the chemical index was 1182 points, the same as yesterday, down 15.57% from the highest point of 1400 points in the cycle (2021-10-23), and up 97.66% from the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the period refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to now)

Business agency white carbon black analysts believe that the trend of rubber grade white carbon black is stable in the short term, and the price range is about 6000-6500 yuan / ton. (to know more about the industry chain market trends, welcome to pay attention to the official account of the business community, obtain commodity information, and grasp the commodity price).

1、 Price trend

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the average price of refrigerant R22 was 17500 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week and the beginning of the month, up 9.83% compared with the same period last year

According to the bulk data monitoring of business agency, as of March 18, the average price of refrigerant R134a was 25500 yuan / ton, flat compared with the beginning of the week, down 7.27% compared with the beginning of the month and up 26.87% compared with the same period last year.

2、 Market analysis

The refrigerant R22 market continued to advance steadily this week, and the price did not change significantly compared with the beginning of the month. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid was weak and stable, and the market of chloroform rose, which strengthened the support for refrigerant R22. At present, public health incidents have intensified, logistics is poor, some enterprises have suspended quotation, and there is great sales pressure, but the manufacturers support the price, and R22 price is firm. At present, the price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is mostly 10830 yuan / ton, the price of chloroform is about 5250 yuan / ton, the market price of R22 is mostly in the range of 17000-18000 yuan / ton, the price in Shandong is about 17500 yuan / ton, the price in Zhejiang is about 17000-17500 yuan / ton, the price in Hunan is about 17500-18000 yuan / ton, and the price in Guangzhou is about 18000 yuan / ton.

The market of refrigerant R134a was temporarily stable this week, and the market focus shifted downward. The price of raw material hydrofluoric acid is weak and stable, the price of trichloroethylene is stable at about 12000, and the cost support is OK, but the demand of the car market is still weak, the market supply exceeds demand, coupled with the intensification of local public health events, poor logistics, pressure on enterprise shipments, stable and declining prices, and the actual transaction is lower than the offer. By the end of the weekend, the market quotation of R134a was mostly in the range of 24500-26000 yuan / ton, about 2480-25500 yuan / ton in Zhejiang, about 24500-25000 yuan / ton in Hunan, about 26000-30000 yuan / ton in Jiangsu and about 27000 yuan / ton in Guangzhou.

In terms of raw materials, on March 21, the price trend of domestic hydrofluoric acid market was temporarily stable, the operation of on-site devices was stable, the supply of goods was normal, and the market price of anhydrous hydrofluoric acid fell. The recent decline of fluorite price had a certain impact on the loss of support for the hydrofluoric acid market. In addition, the operating rate of downstream refrigerant industry was still at a low level, the actual demand was at a low level, the procurement of hydrofluoric acid was limited, and the refrigerant market was depressed recently, It is expected that the market price of hydrofluoric acid may decline slightly.

3、 Future forecast

Business community refrigerant analysts believe that the current cost power is OK and the demand continues to be weak, but public health events affect the shipment of enterprises, and some manufacturers suspend the quotation. It is expected that the market of refrigerant R22 and R134a will be stable in the short term, and the price trend of raw materials needs to be paid attention to.

According to the monitoring of business society, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride declined this week. As of the weekend, the quotation of phthalic anhydride was 8925 yuan / ton, down 2.46% from the price of 9150 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week, up 34.72% year-on-year. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride has declined recently.

This week, the market price trend of phthalic anhydride fell, the delivery of phthalic anhydride in the field was general, the downstream DOP market price fell sharply, the price trend of orthobenzene was temporarily stable, the plasticizer market fell, bad factors affected the phthalic anhydride market, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market fell. The operating rate of domestic phthalic anhydride manufacturers is less than 60%, the domestic spot supply of phthalic anhydride is normal, the downstream plasticizer industry mainly purchases on demand, and the actual transaction has little change. The market price trend of phthalic anhydride in East China has declined, and the high-end transactions on the floor are limited. The mainstream of adjacent France source negotiation in East China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton, and the mainstream of naphthalene method source negotiation is 8700-8800 yuan / ton; The mainstream quotation of phthalic anhydride market in North China is 8900-9000 yuan / ton. The wait-and-see mentality of phthalic anhydride still exists in the field. The downstream is mainly purchased on demand. The price trend of phthalic anhydride is temporarily stable, and the market price trend of phthalic anhydride is declining.

This week, the price of domestic orthobenzene is stable, with an on-site price of 9000 yuan / ton, which is the same as the price of 9000 yuan / ton at the beginning of the week. The stable price of domestic orthobenzene is a good support for the phthalic anhydride market. Recently, the market trend of imported orthobenzene in the port area has remained high, and the external quotation of orthobenzene is temporarily stable. Recently, the inventory of orthobenzene in the port area has not changed much, and the actual transaction price is subject to negotiation. After detailed discussion on the actual sheet, the price trend of orthobenzene is stable, and the price of domestic phthalic anhydride has declined.

The market price trend of DOP in the downstream of phthalic anhydride fell sharply this week. According to the monitoring of business society, the domestic DOP price was 12025 yuan / ton by the end of the weekend, with a price drop of 7.32%. The operation of DOP enterprises in the field was stable, the supply of DOP was normal, the price of isooctanol fell, the cost of DOP raw materials fell, the operation of DOP enterprises was low, the supply of DOP was sufficient, the price of PVC fell, the downstream demand fell, and the market transaction was general. The upward momentum of plasticizer DOP market is weakened and the downward pressure is increased. The transaction price is subject to the real-time price. The DOP price is 11700-12100 yuan / ton. The DOP price trend has fallen sharply this week, and the price trend of phthalic anhydride market has fallen due to the impact.

On the whole, the recent price trend of phthalic anhydride has been temporarily stable, but the market trend of downstream plasticizer industry has fallen, but the crude oil market is still supported. Affected by this, the phthalic anhydride market has a long and short game. It is expected that the market price of phthalic anhydride may remain high in the later stage.

DOTP prices fell sharply this week

According to the data monitoring of business agency, the high DOTP price fell sharply this week, and the overall DOTP market fell. As of March 17, the price of DOTP was 12350 yuan / ton, down 5.54% from 13075 yuan / ton on March 10 last week, and up 3.13% from 11975 yuan / ton on March 1 at the beginning of the month. The high level of DOTP market fell back, and the price of DOTP returned to the level at the beginning of March.

The price of isooctanol fell sharply this week

 
According to the price monitoring of business agency, the domestic isooctanol market fell from a high level this week. As of March 17, the price of isooctanol was 12733.33 yuan / ton, down 6.60% from 13633.33 yuan / ton on March 11 last week. Since the release of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, the high price of isooctanol has fallen. This week, the price of isooctanol has fallen sharply, the cost of DOTP has decreased, the upward momentum of DOTP has weakened, and the downward pressure has increased.

PTA prices fluctuated and fell

 
According to the price monitoring of the business agency, the PTA price fell sharply this week, and the overall PTA market fell back from the high level. As of March 17, the PTA price was 5732.73 yuan / ton, down 12.55% from 6555.50 yuan / ton on March 9 last week. The conflict between Russia and Ukraine is expected to ease, with crude oil prices plummeting and PTA prices plummeting. PTA prices fell, DOTP costs fell, and DOTP bearishness increased.

Future expectations

DOTP data analysts believe that with the easing of the conflict between Russia and Ukraine, crude oil prices have fallen sharply, PTA prices have fallen, isooctanol prices have fallen, costs have fallen, and the downward pressure of DOTP has increased. Generally speaking, the price of raw materials fell, the support of rising costs weakened, the demand for DOTP was temporarily stable, and the price of DOTP fell. In the future, as the price of raw materials returns to stability, the cost of DOTP tends to stabilize. It is expected that the price of DOTP will stabilize after falling in the future.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 16, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 9100 yuan / ton. Compared with March 13 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8916 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 184 yuan / ton, or 2.06%, and compared with March 1 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8633 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 467 yuan / ton, or 11.43%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business society that in March, the domestic n-propanol market continued to rise. This week, with the support of raw material cost, the market focus of n-propanol continued to operate upward, the downstream demand was normal, and the trading atmosphere was mild. On the 14th and 15th of the week, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong was adjusted upward by 200-300 yuan / ton, and then the market of n-propanol continued to consolidate at a high level. As of March 16, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8400-8900 yuan / ton, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, since March, the overall market price of ethylene has shown an upward trend. As of March 15, the reference price of ethylene was US $1480.25/ton, up 17.78% compared with us $1256.75/ton on March 1. On March 15, according to the European ethylene market, FD northwest Europe quoted us $1737-1747 / ton, up US $10 / ton, and CIF northwest Europe quoted us $1487-1495 / ton, up US $4 / ton. On March 15, in the US ethylene market, FD US Gulf quoted us $636-653 / ton, down US $37 / ton. Recently, the US ethylene market fell and the demand was general. On March 15, according to the Asian ethylene market, CFR Northeast Asia quoted us $1296-1306 / ton, down US $50 / ton, and CFR Southeast Asia quoted us $1296-1306 / ton, down US $50 / ton.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is good, and the raw materials still support the market in the short term. According to the analysts of business society, the domestic n-propanol market is mainly high and strong in the near future, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes in supply and demand.

This week (3.7-11), the domestic liquid ammonia market rebounded, the prices in Shandong and Hebei rebounded slightly, the market was weak and stable at the beginning of the week, and the market began to pick up gradually in the middle of the week. It is mainly driven by the downstream urea market. Enterprises turn to urea more, resulting in lower ammonia volume and tight supply, which improves the market. According to the monitoring of business society, as of March 11, the weekly increase of liquid ammonia in Shandong was 3.02%. At present, the mainstream quotation range of liquid ammonia in Shandong is 4300-4500 yuan / ton.

In terms of supply, this week, the overall ammonia release in many places in China decreased significantly compared with the previous week, and the supply of manufacturers decreased slightly. With the rise of urea market and the continuous expansion of profits from liquid ammonia and urea, enterprises have switched to urea. Many large factories in Shandong, Shanxi and other places have switched to urea, and the supporting facilities in the lower reaches of Western Shandong have been restored. Some enterprises in Hubei have stopped for maintenance, such as Xiangyun, Yihua and sanning. Narrow supply is the fundamental reason to support the rise of liquid ammonia price.

On the cost side, the upstream coal market is affected by the regulation policy, and the price fluctuates lower. At present, the profits of downstream methanol and liquid ammonia manufacturers are generally boosted. However, the price of natural gas is still high, which has a great driving effect on gas head enterprises.

On the demand side, the domestic urea price rose slightly this week. The quotation increased from 2732.00 yuan / ton last weekend to 2902.00 yuan / ton this weekend, an increase of 6.22%, up 38.41% year-on-year compared with the same period last year. Agricultural demand has started and industrial demand has increased. With the advent of spring ploughing, domestic fertilizer has entered the peak season, and dealers take goods actively. After the Winter Olympics, the compound fertilizer plant and plate plant will gradually resume work, and the bargain hunting will be followed up. After a sharp rise in the market price of melamine in the downstream, it fell slightly, weakening the enthusiasm for urea procurement. From the perspective of supply: at present, the daily output of urea is more than 160000 tons, and the supply is sufficient. On the whole, the cost support of urea is strengthened, the downstream demand is increased, the supply of urea is sufficient, and the slight rise of urea in the future is the main.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same, but the opening of the curve has expanded recently, and urea is obviously better than liquid ammonia. The strong profit of urea has led ammonia enterprises to switch to urea.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain diagram shows that the current liquid ammonia industry chain continues to improve, and the price of natural gas upstream of the gas head rises. However, the performance of coal head is weak, and the performance of liquid ammonia is also good, but the performance of downstream is weak except urea plate.

Future forecast: the business society believes that in the short term, the supply and demand of liquid ammonia is stable and partially tight, and the market is expected to continue to improve, but we still need to pay attention to the degree of demand recovery and the duration of downstream urea market. It is expected that the price of liquid ammonia may still increase in the near future.

1、 Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic market of PA6 generally rose last week, and the spot prices of various brands rose and fell. As of March 14, the mainstream offer price of 2.75-2.85 of the sample enterprises was about 16500 yuan / ton, up or down by + 4.65% compared with the average price at the beginning of the month.

2、 Analysis of influencing factors:

Industrial chain: in the upstream, caprolactam and its raw material pure benzene were still supported by the rise of crude oil price last week, the remote cost strengthened, and the enterprise raised the price. Near the weekend, crude oil callback, caprolactam horizontal consolidation. In the short term, the price position of raw materials will continue to be high, and the orders in the early stage will be delivered one after another. It is expected that the price of caprolactam may be strong.

After the price of caprolactam in the upstream rose, the cost side support of PA6 strengthened. The operating rate of domestic PA6 polymerization plant is relatively stable at 70%. Due to the increasing uncertainty of the situation in Russia and Ukraine, the market is worried about the supply fluctuation of energy and other bulk commodities in the future. The petrochemical industry chain may remain high in the short term, and PA6 news and cost side support is strong. Last week, the supply side continued the previous abundant pattern, and the demand of downstream enterprises was flat. In addition to contract production and delivery, there were few large-scale goods preparation on site. The weakness of downstream purchasing caused the shortage of PA6 after rising, and the trading situation was poor within the week. The main benefit of PA6 was still the cost side.

3、 Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot price of PA6 fluctuated Youzhang last week, the trend of caprolactam rose, and the cost support of PA6 strengthened. The terminal demand weakened, and the buyer’s resistance to the high price supply led to the rise and fall of PA6. It is expected that the PA6 market may remain strong and volatile in the short term.

Price trend:

According to the bulk list data of business society, the domestic ABS market continued to rise this week, and the spot prices of various brands increased to a certain extent. As of March 11, the average price of mainstream offer of general-purpose ABS was about 14700 yuan / ton, up or down + 4.26% compared with the price level at the beginning of the month.

Factor analysis:

Industrial chain: in terms of raw material styrene, the market price of styrene strengthened and rose this week. International crude oil rose sharply, pure benzene also increased greatly, and the cost side gave strong support to styrene. At present, the spot supply is reduced slightly, the downstream is dominated by digestion contracts, and the spot trading is acceptable. The styrene market is expected to rise slightly in the short term.

Acrylonitrile market is warmer this week. At present, the cost side support of acrylonitrile is stronger, and enterprises raise product prices. In terms of industry load, some enterprises have maintenance plans in the near future, and the supply is expected to shrink in the short term. However, the period of rapid production of the industry is not over, and there are still enterprises in operation in the near future. The inventory position of midstream merchants has been partially digested, and the market is expected to be strong in the short term.

The domestic butadiene market rose sharply this week. At the beginning of the week, the sharp rise of crude oil affected the increase of butadiene cost pressure. Under the negative expectation of the inventory reduction of some cracking units, the market supply side was supported. At the same time, the news side boosted by the sharp rise of crude oil. The prices of domestic butadiene suppliers increased continuously, and some bidding sources increased significantly, driving the spot market to break through 10000 quickly.

This week, the market of ABS upstream three materials is OK, and the cost side support is stronger. In terms of industry load, the operating rate of domestic ABS enterprises is high, the overall supply is high and the prognosis is abundant. The ABS market is still in the high inventory position of enterprises and downstream, which is affected by pressure. In the early stage, the terminal enterprises return to work and the demand is launched, and the trading volume is large in stages. In addition, the uncertainty of the current situation in Eastern Europe has increased, and the main positive factor in the market is the remote upstream. However, the spot price shrinks, and the mentality of businesses weakens.

Future forecast:

Business analysts believe that the spot market of ABS continues to rise this week, and the trend of upstream three materials rises, which has strong support for the cost side of ABS. The spot supply of ABS enterprises remains at a high level. At present, the downstream demand is more and more cautious due to the impact of spot price rise, and the digestion of domestic inventory location is slow. It is expected that the spot market of ABS may be dominated by shock consolidation in the short term.

According to the price monitoring data of business agency, as of March 10, 2022, the average reference price of domestic n-propanol was 8833 yuan / ton. Compared with March 6 (the average reference price of n-propanol was 8633 yuan / ton), the average price increased by 200 yuan / ton, or 2.32%.

It can be seen from the data monitoring chart of business agency that this week, the overall domestic n-propanol market continued to rise steadily. From the beginning of this week (7th), driven by the rise of raw materials and supported by costs, the domestic n-propanol market has operated strongly. The overall market price of n-propanol in Shandong has increased slightly by 100-200 yuan / ton. At present, the downstream demand side of n-propanol is relatively normal, the downstream procurement is mainly rigid demand, and the on-site trading atmosphere is acceptable. As of March 10, the market price of n-propanol in Shandong is around 8300-8650 yuan / ton, the market price of n-propanol in Nanjing is stable, and the ex factory price of n-propanol is around 9000-9500 yuan / ton. Local dealers still have reservations about the price, and the price is not easy to monitor, which may lead to differences in the specific negotiation situation. Each region also has differences. It is mainly based on actual single negotiation, and we will wait and see the change of raw material price and shipment in the future.

In terms of upstream ethylene, according to the monitoring data of business society, the outer disc price of ethylene rose this week. The average price of ethylene at the beginning of the week was US $1317.50/ton, and the average price of ethylene at the weekend was US $1423.75/ton, an increase of 8.06%. The current price rose by 12.55% month on month, and the current price rose by 19.14% year-on-year. This week, the external ethylene market generally showed an upward trend. The market price of ethylene in Asia rose sharply. As of the 9th, CFR Northeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton and CFR Southeast Asia closed at US $1356-1366 / ton. European ethylene market prices rose sharply. As of the 9th, FD northwest Europe closed at US $1582-1592 / ton and CIF northwest Europe closed at US $1381-1390 / ton. The price of ethylene in the United States fluctuated slightly. As of the 9th, the price was 794-812 yuan / ton. The external ethylene market rose sharply this week, which was mainly affected by the sharp rise of upstream crude oil. The price rise was gratifying, and the rise of ethylene in Europe and Asia was relatively large.

Forecast of future trend of n-propanol

At present, the overall trading atmosphere of n-propanol market is mild, and the downstream demand is mainly on demand. The analysts of business agency n-propanol believe that the short-term domestic n-propanol market is mainly high-level consolidation and operation, and more attention needs to be paid to the specific changes of supply and demand.