In May, the domestic BDO market remained depressed, and the price curve went down unilaterally. The bidding prices of major production enterprises have fallen one after another. At the same time, the downstream demand is weak, and many companies need small orders to purchase. The confidence of the industry is constantly declining.
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According to the sample data monitored by the business club, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 24460 yuan / ton at the beginning of May. By the end of the month, the average price of domestic BDO producers was 22320 yuan / ton. The price fell by 8.75% in the month and increased by 12.59% year-on-year. The latest market price: 22300 yuan / ton in the mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in East China, 24000-24500 yuan / ton in barrel negotiation (acceptance and delivery); The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 24000-24200 yuan / ton. The mainstream negotiation of spot bulk water in South China is 22400-22400 yuan / ton, and the barrel negotiation is 24000-24500 yuan / ton (acceptance and delivery).
Trend chart of domestic BDO market in May 2022:
According to the price monitoring of the trading society, in April 2022, 41 commodities in the chemical industry sector rose month on month in the list of bulk commodity prices, of which 9 commodities increased by more than 5%, accounting for 8.2% of the monitored commodities in the sector; The top 3 commodities were formic acid (36.15%), caustic soda (13.35%) and flake soda (9.32%). A total of 66 commodities fell month on month, and 29 commodities fell by more than 5%, accounting for 26.4% of the monitored commodities in this sector; The products with the top three declines were propylene glycol (-20.05%), acetic acid (-18.39%) and glycine (-16.77%). The average increase or decrease in this month was -1.87%.
Rise and fall chart of BDO industrial chain in may2022:
At the beginning of the month, the domestic BDO market continued to decline, and the actual single transaction was light. At present, the support of the supply side is weakened. At the same time, last week, the factory bid for price reduction and the transaction was not ideal, which exacerbated the bearish mood on the floor. The load of downstream industries is not high, and small orders are needed to keep up.
In the first ten days of the month, the domestic BDO market continued to decline. Most operators entered the market to wait and see, and the overall negotiation atmosphere in the market was light; The demand side continues to be depressed, and small orders follow up and reduce prices; At the same time, the bidding price of the factory fell sharply, and the transaction was still not ideal. The manufacturers holding goods lacked confidence in trading, and the market focus continued to fall.
In the middle of May, the actual order trading in the domestic BDO market was light. Close to the settlement cycle, the industry mostly takes a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the initiative to make a counter offer is not high. The traders’ trading mentality is different. Some hold the offer steadily, and some worry about the further decline of the market and negotiate profits; It is difficult to increase the demand of downstream industries. Small orders are just needed, and the overall market moves down.
In late June, the domestic BDO market was weak and stalemate. The market lacks clear information guidance, and most operators take a cautious wait-and-see attitude, and the atmosphere of actual single negotiation is light; At present, the long and short factors are intertwined, the supply and demand sides negotiate and game, and it is difficult for the market focus to rise or fall.
Monthly K column chart of domestic production price of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) of Business Club:
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Weekly K column chart of domestic production price of 1,4 butanediol (BDO) of Business Club:
Comparison chart of BDO price trend of business club from 2018 to 2022:
In terms of devices, the agent of the second phase of the 204000t / a device in lanshantun River, Xinjiang was changed on May 16, which is expected to take 5-7 days; Xinjiang Guotai Xinhua plant with an annual output of 200000 tons was shut down for maintenance on May 15, which is expected to be one month; Great wall energy’s annual output of 200000 tons will be changed in turn at the beginning of May, which is expected to end on May 15; Xinjiang Xinye 60000t / a unit was overhauled on April 19 and is expected to restart on June 1; Shaanxi Ronghe 60000t / a plant was shut down for maintenance for 15 days on May 15; Shaanxi black cat’s 60000t / a unit was overhauled on May 20, and it is expected to take 10-15 days; The unit with an annual output of 100000 tons of Henan Hemei coal will be shut down due to equipment failure, which is expected to take 20 days.
On the upstream side, the supply of methanol may still be abundant, the marginal demand is expected to improve, and the domestic methanol market may be stable in the short term. Raw calcium carbide: Recently, the procurement of Shanxi, Shaanxi and Shandong has gradually resumed, and the market decline has gradually slowed down. However, the recent weakness of downstream PVC market of calcium carbide continues, the inventory of PVC enterprises is high, and the short-term domestic calcium carbide market is still expected to be lowered.
Comparison chart of methanol-1,4-butanediol (BDO) price trend of business community:
Comparison chart of price trend of calcium carbide-1,4-butanediol (BDO) in shanghaishe:
The performance of the downstream demand side is sluggish, and the purchasing and marketing mentality of the negative operators continues. Among them, the main terminal product spandex continues to yield profits and promote sales under the pressure of inventory and sales, and the upward pressure of cost pressure forces the upstream PTMEG price to be reduced by a narrow margin. In addition, it is expected that the inventory and production reduction of some spandex factories will affect the raw material consumption. The start-up of PBT industry increased slightly, but the end demand generally suppressed the market trend.
The factory intends to support the price, but the downstream demand of the terminal has not been significantly improved. BDO analysts of business agency predict that the domestic BDO market is mainly on the sidelines
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