In October, the trichloromethane market rose and fell. According to the data monitoring of the business community, as of October 31, the price of chloroform bulk water in Shandong was 3775 yuan/ton, down 7.36% from 4075 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month, and 13.22% from the peak of 4350 yuan/ton. In the first half of the month, affected by export orders, the supply of goods in the region was tight. The enterprise continuously raised the price of trichloromethane, and the merchant’s offer rose; In the second half of the month, the supply side was loose again, and the price of trichloride fell sharply.

In October, the commencement of methane chloride remained at a high level, but there were many export orders from some large factories, and the supply of goods in Shandong was tight; After the completion of export goods in the middle and late ten days, the supply side returned to the loose trend; At the end of the month, many enterprises reduced their load and parking, and the supply was tightened to a certain extent in the later period. At the end of October, Jinling Dongying Methane Chloride Plant was reduced to 60% load for operation; From October 26, the 300000t/a methane chloride unit in Dongyue has been under load reduction operation, which is expected to last about a month; In late October, Jiangsu Liwen began to shut down its 160000 t/a methane chloride plant for maintenance; Dongying Huatai 160000 t/a methane chloride plant was shut down for maintenance for about a week from October 25.

In October, the cost of the trichloromethane industrial chain was lower, the downstream price was slightly higher, and the upstream of the industrial chain was weak and the downstream supported slightly.

The price of raw materials fell sharply, and the cost of chloroform dragged down the price. According to the business community, as of October 31, the spot price of methanol was 2757 yuan/ton, down 8.46% from 3012 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month. At the end of the month, the supply side of methanol was abundant, the demand side did not improve, and the methanol market continued to fall. Local transportation is limited, and some enterprises have increased their inventories, which further aggravates the wait-and-see mood of traders.

In October, the price of downstream refrigerant R22 of chloroform rose slightly and the starting point remained stable; The downstream printing and dyeing industry started around 80%; The start of the pharmaceutical industry was basically stable, and the demand was still supported. However, in the second half of the month, the resistance of the downstream to high priced goods increased, and the transaction of the chloroform market was weak.

Future market forecast: Analysts from the methane chloride data of the business community believe that the supply side is tight at the end of the month, the cost side is low, and the demand is in conflict with the high price supply. It is expected that the price of chloroform will fluctuate narrowly in the short term.

In October, the domestic liquid ammonia market declined by 5.95% due to shocks. Shandong, Hebei, Shanxi, Hubei and Hunan provinces and other regions saw a significant drop of 300-500 yuan. The market supply increased significantly. However, downstream demand is relatively weak, and the peak agricultural demand season has ended. Downstream prices are depressed, and terminal prices are also falling. According to the monitoring of the business community, as of October 31, the current quotation range of liquid ammonia mainstream market in Shandong is 3800-4000 yuan/ton.

Supply side

On the supply side, at the beginning of this month, the price of liquid ammonia was high, and there were too many local maintenance devices, especially the shutdown of Wanhua and Shenyuan devices. In some areas, such as Fujian, the supply of goods was scarce, and the export volume increased, but the downstream acceptance was close to the critical value. With the early maintenance devices being started, but the downstream demand has not followed up, the market supply is excessive. Repeated epidemic situations and poor transportation have led to a cold trading atmosphere, and the manufacturer’s shipping capacity has been greatly reduced. It is inevitable to reduce prices and clear the warehouse.

Cost side

The upstream coal market price is still high, with an increase rate of 12.43% in October. Affected by the epidemic situation and the safety reduction in production, the coal mines are mainly responsible for long-term coal supply, and the market supply is still tight. The supply is reduced, the market trading atmosphere is fair, and the coal price is strongly supported. In terms of downstream ports, the price is mostly strong. During the overhaul of Daqin Line, the amount of coal entering each port has decreased. The traders’ quotation is relatively firm and their willingness to ship is relatively strong. The rise of coal price has brought heavy pressure on downstream ammonia enterprises, especially when the price of liquid ammonia has declined, the profits of enterprises have been significantly compressed. However, the situation of gas head ammonia enterprises is on the contrary. The price of natural gas fell sharply this month, with a monthly drop of more than 20%, greatly easing the cost pressure of gas head ammonia enterprises in Southwest China.

Demand side

In the end, domestic demand entered the traditional slack season, and the downstream urea market was cold. According to the monitoring of the business community, urea fell 1.92% in October, and the supply and demand fundamentals of urea were unbalanced. On the one hand, a small amount of agricultural demand has been stockpiled, the commencement of compound fertilizer plants has declined, and the demand for urea has weakened, which is difficult to support the high price operation. On the other hand, industrial demand has increased slightly. The rubber sheet factory enterprises started at a low level, mainly for the purchase of rigid demand, and the price of melamine was consolidated at a high level, so they had a good enthusiasm for the purchase of urea. In general, the downstream is still rigid, with less increment and limited support.

From the above figure, the price comparison chart of urea and liquid ammonia shows that the trend of liquid ammonia and urea is basically the same. Since October, the price difference between the two has narrowed, urea is stronger than liquid ammonia, and downstream profit margins have increased.

From the above figure, the liquid ammonia industry chain showed a weak performance in October. Most of the products went down, and the cost performance was different. The rise of coal and the fall of natural gas coexisted, and the ammonia enterprises in coal and gas heads were both hot and cold. In the downstream, due to the weakening of seasonal demand, liquid ammonia and downstream products such as formic acid (- 27.62%), DMF (- 19.49%) and diammonium phosphate (- 8.64%) declined strongly.

Future market forecast

The business community believes that, on the cost side, affected by the supply guarantee policy and the northern heating season in winter, the coal may still be able to move forward in the later period, while ammonia enterprises still face greater cost pressure in the later period, the price may be supported. In terms of supply and demand, there are still maintenance devices facing resumption of production in the later period. It is estimated that the supply of liquid ammonia may continue to increase in November. The demand for agricultural fertilizer in the downstream is in the low season, and the operating rate of downstream plants is generally low or the ammonia price is suppressed. In terms of exports, there may still be something to look forward to. The support of the printing mark superimposes on the increase of China’s export substitution to some countries. On the whole, the liquid ammonia may maintain a balanced pattern in the later stage, with resistance and support in price. The domestic regions are subject to short-term differentiation due to epidemic situation and transportation.

Price trend of domestic sodium metabisulfite

According to the monitoring of the business community, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite was weak and stable in October. The average price of industrial sodium metabisulfite on October 1 was 2600.00 yuan/ton, and the average price on October 31 was 2533.33 yuan/ton, down 2.56% in the month as a whole.

Affected by the continuous low upstream cost, some enterprises lowered the factory price slightly again in October, driving the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price to adjust again. From the middle of the year, the price of upstream raw materials was generally weak and stable, and then fluctuated slightly. The overall inventory of sodium metabisulfite industry was relatively low. Supported by factors such as stable cost decline and tight market supply, the price of domestic sodium metabisulfite market was generally weak and stable.

As of October 31, the price of soda ash fell slightly by 0.75% in the month, and the price of sulfur fell again, down 11.88% in the month. The bottom of raw material cost fluctuated weakly, and the downstream had a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the future, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price was not sufficiently motivated to recover.

Future market forecast

According to the analysts of the business community, the raw material cost fluctuates at a low level, and the downstream trade subjects have a strong wait-and-see attitude. In the short term, the domestic sodium metabisulfite market price is in a dilemma of rising and falling, and the overall market will continue to move forward at the current level with small fluctuations.

1、 Trend analysis

According to the nickel price monitoring of the business community, the nickel price fluctuated frequently in October. At the beginning of the month, the nickel price was 19116.67 yuan/ton. At the end of the month, the nickel price fell slightly to 188450 yuan/ton, with an overall decline of 1.42%, up 29.68% year on year.

Macro: In October, the European Central Bank raised three major interest rates by 75 basis points. The Federal Reserve announced its September interest rate resolution as scheduled, raising interest rates by another 75 basis points. The US reported that the CPI in September was the focus of the financial market. The CPI rose 8.2% in September, down 0.1 percentage points from the previous month.

On the supply side: In October, the Philippines entered the rainy season, which may affect the freight volume, and the price of nickel ore is firm; In the third quarter, the nickel output of Danshui River increased month on month, and the spot supply of domestic Jinchuan nickel and Russian nickel eased slightly; Indonesian officials once again stressed that the export tax on semi-finished nickel products will be levied this year.

Demand: In the downstream, the demand for nickel has improved due to the frequent positive developments in the new energy industry chain, and the overall trend of the power battery industry chain for sulfuric acid stainless steel has warmed up. The profit of stainless steel improved, which drove the steel plant to maintain a high production schedule. The output in October was about 2.89 million tons, and the output is expected to stabilize in November.

To sum up: In October, nickel supply was tight, and the nickel industry chain on the demand side is still in the golden nine silver ten peak season. The rapid development of the new energy industry has driven the demand for nickel sulfate, and the nickel demand in the stainless steel field has improved. The final result of LME’s sanctions on Russian metals may be announced in the near future, which may cause sharp fluctuations in the non-ferrous market. According to the annual nickel price comparison chart of the business community in recent three years, the price in November is still stronger than that in October, but November is the low season for consumption, and the demand may weaken. It is expected that the nickel price will still maintain a wide range of fluctuations in November.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 27, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16225.00 yuan/ton. In October, the PMMA market was strong. In October, the PMMA price rose slightly, up 0.78%. At present, the mainstream price of the market is 16100-16200 yuan/ton. The overall market is balanced in supply and demand, the atmosphere of negotiation is general, and the operating rate is normal.

As of October 14, the average price of domestic general transparent premium PMMA was 16100.00 yuan/ton, unchanged from the same period last week. PMMA prices mainly operated stably, and the overall market price fluctuation range was not large. At present, the quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. It is expected that the PMMA market price will maintain stable operation, and the focus of discussion is narrow and weak. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable, The average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent high-quality products is 16100.00 yuan/ton. The overall market is stable, and the price has not changed significantly. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers is about 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants are active in shipping and giving up profits. The price of PMMA is stable. At present, the supply and demand of the overall market is balanced, the downstream just needs to purchase, the focus of negotiation is weak, and the supply side is normal, Latest quotation: 16800 yuan/ton from Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd.

As of October 21, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products was 16225.00 yuan/ton, which was stronger than that of the same period last week. The overall market price fluctuation range of PMMA is not large. At present, the mainstream manufacturers’ quotation range is about 16200 yuan/ton, and the focus of discussion is stable. The overall market supply and demand are balanced, and the operating rate is stable. This week, the average price of PMMA for domestic general transparent premium products is 16100.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market is stable, There is no significant change in the price. The quotation range of mainstream manufacturers remains around 16100 yuan/ton. The merchants actively deliver goods and make profits. PMMA prices are mainly stable. At present, the overall market is in balance of supply and demand. Downstream just needs to purchase. The focus of negotiation is weak. The supply side is normal. The latest quotation of the enterprise: Shanghai Hongqi Plastic Technology Co., Ltd. 16700 yuan/ton.

Rubber and plastic index: On October 26, the rubber and plastic index was 683 points, down 1 point from yesterday, down 35.57% from the peak of 1060 points (March 14, 2012) in the cycle, and up 29.36% from the lowest point of 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

According to the analysts of PMMA, the white carbon black market is expected to operate stably and strongly in November, and the mainstream price range is about 16200 yuan/ton.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 26, the average price of PET water bottle manufacturers was 7690.00 yuan/ton. In October, the market price of PET declined slightly, with a decline of 7.46% for the whole month, about 700 yuan/ton. At present, the mainstream price range is 7700 yuan/ton. The overall market supply and demand are balanced. At present, the supply side is normal, the operating rate is stable, and downstream just need to purchase.

In the first ten days of October, as of September 7, the price of PET water bottle was narrow and weak. At present, the average price is 8800 yuan/ton. The overall market is narrow and weak, down 1.79% from September 1. At present, the focus of negotiation is weak, the market shipments are average, the logistics is smooth, and the domestic PET price is narrow and weak, down slightly compared with the same period last week. At present, the market operation rate is normal, manufacturers mainly give up profits and take orders, the shipment is active, and the logistics is smooth, The overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, the downstream readiness is general, and the cost is lack of support. At present, the mainstream price is about 8900 yuan/ton, which is slightly reduced this week. In the short term, PET is stable and weak.

In the middle and late October, as of October 20, the price of PET water bottle was narrow and weak. At present, the average price was 7690 yuan/ton, 5.88% lower than that of the same period last week, about 400 yuan/ton. The overall market was narrow and weak. At present, the focus of negotiations is low, the market shipments are general, the logistics is smooth, the operating rate is stable, and the domestic PET price is narrow and weak, 5.88% lower than that of the same period last week, about 400 yuan/ton, At present, the market operation rate is normal, the manufacturer is active in shipping, the logistics is smooth, and the supply side is normal. The overall market transaction atmosphere is general, the negotiation atmosphere is fair, and the downstream readiness is general. At present, the mainstream price is about 7700 yuan/ton, and the operation is weak.

Rubber and plastic commodity index: On October 25, the rubber and plastic index was 684 points, down 5 points from yesterday, down 35.47% from the highest point in the cycle 1060 points (March 14, 2012), and up 29.55% from the lowest point 528 points on April 6, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present).

PET analysts from the business agency believe that the PET market is expected to operate stably in November.

This week, the domestic propane market trend was weak, and Shandong propane market fell one after another, with significant amplitude. According to the data monitoring of the business community, the average price of Shandong propane market was 5865.75 yuan/ton on October 17 and 5738.25 yuan/ton on October 21, with a weekly drop of 2.17%, 21.78% lower than the same period last year.

As of October 21, the mainstream prices of propane in different regions in China are as follows:

Region, October 21

South China, 5350-5450 yuan/ton

North China, 5900-5950 yuan/ton

Shandong, 5700-5750 yuan/ton

Northeast China, 5800-5900 yuan/ton

This week (10.17-21), the domestic propane market trend was weak, and the factory price of Shandong propane market fell continuously, with a relatively obvious range. During the week, negative factors in the market dominated, and in terms of cost, international crude oil prices mainly declined, affecting the market mentality. In addition, the decline in the price of the external market and the low cost of imported gas have brought obvious negative effects. The manufacturer has successively lowered the ex factory quotation, mainly for profit delivery. Downstream maintains replenishment on demand and is cautious.

Saudi Aramco announced in October 2022 that both propane and butane fell. Propane was 590 dollars/ton, down 60 dollars/ton from last month; Butane was 560 dollars/ton, down 70 dollars/ton from last month.

To sum up, although the benefits from current costs are limited, terminal demand is expected to increase in the later period as the weather continues to cool. It is expected that the propane market may rise in the short term.

According to the data monitored by the business community, as of October 24, the average price of domestic superior rubber grade white carbon black was 5600.00 yuan/ton, and the overall market was stable but weak. At present, white carbon black is running steadily, with stable operating rate, general purchasing atmosphere, and stable overall trend. At present, the market supply is normal, and downstream just needs to purchase.

The white carbon black market mainly operates stably. Compared with the same period last week, the price change is not obvious. The main supply contract customers have stable operating rates. The downstream just needs to purchase mainly. The logistics is smooth. The market negotiation atmosphere is flat. The willingness to stock up is not obvious. The overall market operates stably.

Chemical index: On October 23, the chemical index stood at 988 points, unchanged from yesterday, 29.43% lower than the cycle’s highest point of 1400 points (2021-10-23), and 65.22% higher than the lowest point of 598 points on April 8, 2020. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from December 1, 2011 to the present)

The white carbon analyst of the business community thinks that the mainstream price of rubber grade white carbon is about 6000 yuan/ton, and the price changes little.

Drop first and then rise in the week

According to the data from the business community, the average price of domestic aluminum ingots in the East China market on October 21 was 18676.67 yuan/ton, up 1.39% on a daily basis, falling first and then rising in the week, down 0.27%.

In the long term, the current price is 1.74% higher than the market average price of 18356.67 yuan/ton at the beginning of the month (10.1), 17450 yuan/ton higher than the recent starting point (July 14, 2022), and 7.03% higher than the recent recovery. On the whole, it is now in the stage of platform shock after warming up.

 
Influential factors of market in the week

On the 18th, LME aluminum inventory increased by 48350 tons, a 46% increase since this month. Inventory pressure suppresses the aluminum price. According to the news, Glencore, a global bulk commodity trader, has delivered a large amount of aluminum originating in Russia to the registered warehouse of London Metal Exchange (LME) in Guangyang, South Korea. Another person familiar with the matter also disclosed that the aluminum delivered to Guangyang warehouse was produced by Rusal Aluminum Corporation (RUSAL for short). RUSAL is the largest aluminum producer outside China, accounting for 6% of the global aluminum supply of about 70 million tons.

However, according to the domestic data, the social inventory of electrolytic aluminum in the main market fell month on month. On the 20th, the mainstream social inventory was about 629000 tons, which was more than 30000 tons off the stock compared with 660000 tons on the 17th.

The recent rebound in aluminum prices is still at the stage of news disturbance. Only when there are a large number of supply and demand gaps in the global aluminum market can a sustained rebound trend be formed. At present, supply and demand are relatively stable, and it is expected that the trend will remain volatile in the short term.

1、 Price data

As of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic local refining hydrogenated naphtha mainstream was 7863.33 yuan/ton, down 2.16% from 8036.67 yuan/ton on October 10. The actual transaction price of local refining hydrogenated naphtha was about 7800-8000 yuan/ton.

As of October 16, the average ex factory price of domestic straight run naphtha mainstream was 7635.00 yuan/ton, down 2.65% from 7842.50 yuan/ton on October 10. The actual transaction price of local straight run naphtha was about 7600-7800 yuan/ton.

On October 16, the naphtha commodity index was 97.05, unchanged from yesterday, 20.22% lower than the peak of 121.64 (2022-03-10) in the cycle, and 129.76% higher than the lowest point of 42.24 on July 19, 2016. (Note: the cycle refers to the period from September 1, 2012 to now)

2、 Analysis of influencing factors

The price of refined naphtha fell this week, and the refinery just needed to purchase. Affected by the bad news of the gasoline and diesel market, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the market was in a wait-and-see mood. The refinery reduced the price and shipped.

Upstream: The international crude oil price fell. During the National Day, the 33rd Ministerial Conference of OPEC+decided to reduce the total daily output of OPEC+crude oil by 2 million barrels from the required daily output level in August 2022. Affected by the news of production reduction, the crude oil market price rose by 15%, but the negative pressure on the economic side was difficult to ease. The World Bank and IMF warned that the risk of global economic recession was growing, In addition, the IMF lowered its economic growth forecast for next year, and crude oil prices fell for three consecutive days after the holiday. On Thursday, the US CPI data was released. Although it was higher than expected, the stock market rebounded strongly after falling, boosting risky assets such as crude oil. In addition, the US Energy Information Administration (EIA) inventory data shows that diesel and heating oil inventories have declined significantly, overshadowing the negative impact of the increase in crude oil and gasoline inventories.

Downstream: According to the monitoring of the business community, toluene decreased slightly this week, with the price at 7790 yuan/ton on October 16 and 7790 yuan/ton on October 10, down 1.52%. The price of mixed xylene was stable this week, and it was 8400 yuan/ton on October 16. In terms of PX market, the market price of paraxylene rose this week. As of the weekend, the domestic ex factory price of paraxylene was 9300 yuan/ton, 3.33% higher than the price of 9000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the week.

3、 Future market forecast

According to the energy analysts of the business community, the international crude oil price fell in shock this week, and the cost support of the naphtha market was limited. Affected by the bad news in the gasoline and diesel markets, the terminal ethylene cracking demand was weak, and the terminal local refining and reforming were in gap. The purchase was mainly just needed. The overall market was in a strong wait-and-see mood. The refinery shipments were weak, and the transaction was light. It is expected that the local refining of naphtha will be dominated by the weak in the near future.