Recently, the overall price of potassium chloride in the domestic market has shown a high and stable trend, with limited fluctuations. On February 2nd, the benchmark price of potassium chloride (imported) by Shengyi Society was 3616.67 yuan/ton, unchanged from the beginning of this month.

1、 Market situation
Although there has been a slight increase in the price of potassium chloride on a weekly basis (except for 60% red granules), the actual market changes are limited. The current high price is mainly due to the inertia of previous price increases and expectations of policy intervention, while downstream transaction activity is not high, and most traders choose to stop selling and wait. The potassium sulfate market also shows the characteristics of “generally rising prices and limited transactions at high prices”, reflecting the cautious acceptance of prices by the demand side at this stage. As the Spring Festival approaches, the trading atmosphere in the market has further weakened, and it is expected that the pre holiday market will maintain a stable pattern.
2、 Core Focus Points
1. Implementation pace of domestic supply guarantee policies
Since the meeting on ensuring supply and stabilizing prices was held on January 27th, the market still maintains a wait-and-see attitude towards specific policy details and implementation efforts. If the pre holiday policies can be clearly implemented and effectively connected with supply and demand, it is expected to stabilize market sentiment and suppress price upward impulses; On the contrary, if the policy is delayed or the implementation effect is limited, there will still be upward pressure on the price of potassium chloride, and it may maintain a strong trend in the short term. The timeliness and effectiveness of policies will become the primary factors affecting the post holiday market trend.
2. Uncertainty in the international situation
International variables such as Iran’s situation, US policy trends, Belarusian potash export sanctions and the evolution of the Russia-Ukraine conflict will continue to disrupt the global potash supply chain. If geopolitical tensions escalate, it may push up international market prices and transmit them to the domestic market; If the situation eases, price support will weaken, and market concerns about future downturns may gradually become apparent. The uncertainty of the international potassium fertilizer trade environment poses two potential paths for the domestic market: a “chaotic premium” and a “stability correction”.
3、 Future prospects
In the short term, the potassium chloride market is expected to continue its weak supply-demand and sideways price trend before the Spring Festival. The post holiday market trend needs to focus on two aspects: first, the specific measures and implementation effects of domestic supply guarantee policies, and second, changes in international geopolitics and trade policies of major exporting countries. It is recommended that industry enterprises maintain reasonable inventory, closely monitor policy developments and international news, and cautiously respond to price volatility risks.